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Company Description: American Vanadium Corp., formerly known as Rocky Mountain Resources Corp., is an exploration and development company focused on bringing the Gibellini vanadium project to production by Q4/12. The Gilbellini project is located in Nevada, U.S.A.
Vanadium Overview
The use of vanadium has been on a steady rise in the past few years, interrupted only by the recent recession. The source of vanadium is concentrated with 84% of the global supply coming from just three countries China, South Africa and Russia. Vanadium is mainly used in high-strength steels and is used anywhere from a few tenths to a few percent vanadium as an alloying material by weight. Vanadium has the dual advantage of not only significantly increasing the hardness of steel, but also doing so without making the resulting steel brittle, so its strength is also enhanced. As nations around the world mandate the use of stronger steels for construction, vanadium is in greater demand. We also foresee two other uses for vanadium that are not largely anticipated by the market and are non-metallurgical in nature. Vanadium is arguably the best cathode material for lithium-ion batteries, a material called lithium vanadium phosphate, or Li3V2(PO4)3. This compound makes a battery that is higher voltage (so likely higher power) and capable of storing more energy per given battery size than any other commonly referenced cathode material. It is also less expensive, from a pure raw material point of view, than the more commonly used lithium cobalt oxide cathode, ubiquitous in laptop computers. Vanadium can also be used in VRBs, a completely different type of battery to store grid-level amounts of electrical energy. VRBs can be scaled up to provide millions of watts of power and store millions of watt-hours of energy, enough to keep thousands of North American homes powered for nearly a full day. These batteries are widely touted as being able to provide the storage required to make unreliable (the industry term is non-dispatchable) alternative sources of electrical power, such as wind or solar, more widely deployable within the grid. We believe the common use for this type of battery is likely to be more pedestrian in nature, with utilities using such batteries to postpone required capital expenditures on substation upgrades and the like, thereby improving their IRR. This type of use does not require waiting for the construction of wind or solar farms. Within the VRBs, vanadium is used in the form of vanadium electrolyte, which is made from what is basically a sulphuric acid highly concentrated with vanadium. AVC may have the potential of producing the vanadium electrolyte as part of its process and could be the lowest cost supplier of that material.
Vanadiums main use is in the steel industry as a steel hardener. However, there are new applications for vanadium that may drive demand higher
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Additionally, given the small size of the project relative to nearby gold projects, an environmental assessment (EA) as opposed to an environmental impact statement (EIS) may be required for permitting. The scope of an EA is much less stringent than an EIS, and representatives from Nevada would be handling the process, which should speed up the process given their familiarity with heap leach type projects in the area. This should save capital as well as let the company bring the Gibellini project to production in a timely fashion.
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Resource
An initial resource and a scoping study were completed for the Gibellini deposit in 2008. The vanadium is hosted in a black shale unit that ranges from 175 to 300 feet thick. The Gibellini deposit consists of 18.9 million tonnes grading 0.33% V2O5 within three types of black shale layered upon one another. Approximately 35.3% is within the oxidized zone, 50.3% within the transitional zone, and 14.4% within the sulphide zone. Column testing work was performed on the three types of rock during the preliminary economic assessment. Recoveries of 60%, 70%, and 52% were achieved in the oxidized, transitional and sulphide materials, respectively. Luckily for AVC, the oxide and transitional layers lie at the top of Gibellini Hill and will be mined first, adding value back to the company earlier. Exhibit 3 NI 43-101 Compliant Resource
Indicated Inferred Total
Source: Company reports
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Easy Mining
Apart from being located in a gold district and enjoying huge exploration upside, the vanadium enriched ore is located on top of Gibellini Hill with minimal overburden, which will allow for open pit mining. At a strip ratio of roughly 0.2:1 or less, minimal waste rock will have to be moved and processed, significantly reducing costs. To make it even easier, the heavily oxidized sedimentary deposit can be mined with a front-end loader with minimal need to blast prior to delivery to the crusher. Exhibit 4 - Gibellini Deposit
With a current LOM of eight years, there are additional targets with high probability of success to add to the resource and LOM
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Primary crushing
A simple flow sheet shows how AVC can be a low cost producer of vanadium and potentially vanadium electrolyte for the use in vanadium redox batteries
Solvent extraction
Purple Flakes
AMV precipitation
Organic stripping
Vanadium Electrolyte
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Valuation
We expect AVC will spend $85 million in 2012 to construct a heap leach operation in Nevada and assume $45 million will come in the form of debt at 9%. This will be used to build a 2.7 million tonne per year operation. To date, we have not included the additional resource potential from nearby Louie Hill and Del Rio. The addition of these deposits would undoubtedly improve the economics of the project. Also, AVC will process all zones of its deposit for a total LOM of 8.3 years. We have applied a recovery rate of 60% for the first 2.5 years, 70% for the following 4.5 years, and 50% for the last 1.3 years based on pilot work done to date on the three zones. Even though AVC is exploring the possibility of producing vanadium electrolyte, which would considerably increase its revenue stream, we have yet to include it in our analysis. We have assumed a $32 per kilogram vanadium price for 2013, rising to $35 per kilogram by 2014, and staying at that level for the rest of the LOM. On operating costs we believe that AVC will be able to produce for roughly $15 per tonne mined ore, which includes mining, crushing, heap leach, solvent extraction, and vanadium precipitation. Finally, we have reduced our net income by 2.5% for royalty payments. We have used a 16% discount rate on the project but with further delineation of the flow sheet through the upcoming bankable feasibility study, we can see additional risk reduction.
Value can easily be added to the project through a longer LOM, which should happen soon, and the ability to produce higher value vanadium electrolyte
($2,352) ($23,547) $26,543 $26,985 $33,136 $39,711 $40,890 $41,893 $42,761 $22,857 $0 $0 $664 $675 $828 $993 $1,022 $1,047 $1,069 $571 $0 $17,085 $13,651 $10,907 $0 $6,755 $663 $8,715 $608 $6,963 $608 $5,564 ($8) $4,445 ($8)
($2,352) ($49,424) $29,548 $33,035 $36,579 $40,892 $40,881 $40,331 $39,838 $21,691 16% ($2,352) ($42,607) $21,959 $21,164 $20,202 $19,469 $16,779 $14,270 $12,151 $5,704 $87,816 $5,000 $2,150 $27,636 $3.45
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Conclusion
In the Gibellini Deposit in Nevada, U.S.A., AVC has a project that will be a low-cost provider of vanadium. Through a combination of a unique deposit that does not require grinding and roasting, vanadium-bearing material located in the fractures, and a low strip ratio, AVC should be able to cheaply produce vanadium through a heap leach process similar to a cyanide leach process for gold. In addition to low expected operating costs, low capital costs will be required given the availability of infrastructure around the property and the simple process. Although it has a current LOM of approximately 8 years, there is additional upside through the purchase of historic core holes from nearby Louie Hill, which AVC plans on incorporating into the upcoming resource. Twin holes at select locations will be drilled to confirm historic results. An updated NI 43-101, a feasibility study, and drill results will all be near-term catalysts to be released in mid-2011. On a longer-term basis, exploration will continue at hills to the south that are part of the same geological structure, such as Del Rio. The exploration should add additional years to the LOM and add value to shareholders. Another potential for AVC is the ability to go down the value chain and produce vanadium electrolyte for VRBs. In the flow sheet, vanadium electrolyte (high concentrations of vanadium in a sulphuric acid solution) is produced prior to the production of vanadium pentoxide. Metallurgical work is on-going to determine specifications of the material and potential commercialization. Nonetheless, this is a value add that has not been included in our analysis but may add additional value in the future as work progresses. The project is cheap and relatively simple. Given the ability to quickly bring a low-cost operation to market, we initiate coverage on AVC with a SPECULATIVE BUY rating and a $3.45 target price.
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$95,976 $103,359 $103,359 $103,359 $103,359 $5,448 $1,362 $27,240 $34,050 $61,926 $1,082 $1,401 $215 $2,698 $59,228 $3,176 $4 $8,715 $47,337 $14,201 $33,136 $828 $32,308 $23,284 $55,592 $5,448 $1,362 $27,240 $34,050 $69,309 $1,104 $1,471 $210 $2,785 $66,523 $2,831 $5 $6,963 $5,448 $1,362 $27,240 $34,050 $69,309 $1,126 $1,545 $206 $2,877 $66,432 $2,455 $6 $5,564 $5,448 $1,362 $27,240 $34,050 $69,309 $1,149 $1,622 $202 $2,972 $66,336 $2,044 $7 $4,445 $5,448 $1,362 $27,240 $34,050 $69,309 $1,172 $1,703 $198 $3,073 $66,236 $1,597 $8 $3,552
($23,547) $26,543 $37,537 $0 $0 $10,553 ($23,547) $26,543 $26,985 $0 $664 $675 ($23,547) $25,880 $26,310 ($5,358) ($28,906) ($3,026) ($28,906) ($3,026) $23,284
$56,729 $58,414 $59,847 $61,087 $32,653 $7,009 $17,019 $17,524 $17,954 $18,326 $9,796 $2,103 $39,711 $40,890 $41,893 $42,761 $22,857 $4,907 $993 $1,022 $1,047 $1,069 $571 $123 $38,718 $39,867 $40,845 $41,692 $22,285 $4,784 $55,592 $94,310 $134,177 $175,023 $216,715 $239,000 $94,310 $134,177 $175,023 $216,715 $239,000 $243,784
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$4,651 $409 $30,157 $63,402 $100,196 $141,299 $182,386 $222,919 $262,955 $284,840 $289,777 $28 $28 $6,712 $7,383 $7,998 $8,613 $8,613 $8,613 $8,613 $6,152 $2,033 $84 $84 $84 $84 $84 $84 $84 $84 $84 $84 $84 $55 $55 $55 $55 $55 $55 $55 $55 $55 $55 $55 $924 $68,839 $55,188 $44,281 $35,566 $28,603 $23,039 $18,594 $15,042 $12,205 $9,937 $5,741 $69,414 $92,195 $115,205 $143,899 $178,654 $214,178 $250,266 $286,749 $303,336 $301,886
$280 $280 $209 $217 $225 $232 $240 $248 $256 $0 $42,038 $38,810 $35,291 $31,455 $27,274 $22,717 $17,749 $12,335
$265 $6,433
$274 $0
$10,028 $55,211 $55,411 $55,622 $55,836 $56,047 $56,253 $56,455 $56,653 $56,847 $57,037 $791 $791 $791 $791 $791 $791 $791 $791 $791 $791 $791 ($5,358) ($28,906) ($3,026) $23,285 $55,592 $94,311 $134,177 $175,024 $216,715 $239,001 $243,784 $5,741 $69,414 $92,195 $115,205 $143,899 $178,654 $214,177 $250,266 $286,749 $303,336 $301,886
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2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
($2,352) ($23,547) $25,880 $26,310 $32,308 $38,718 $39,867 $40,845 $41,692 $22,285 $0 $17,085 $13,651 $10,907 $166 $182 $200 $210 $0 $0 ($6,755) ($663) $8,715 $215 ($608) $6,963 $210 ($608) $5,564 $206 $8 $4,445 $202 $8 $3,552 $198 $8 $2,838 $194 $2,470
($2,186) ($6,280) $32,977 $36,765 $40,629 $45,283 $45,645 $45,501 $45,450 $27,787 $11,370
$0 $0 $0 ($85,000) $0 ($85,000)
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $42,038 ($3,228) ($3,519) ($3,836) ($4,181) ($4,557) ($4,967) ($5,414) ($5,902) ($6,433) $3,700 $45,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,700 $87,038 ($3,228) ($3,519) ($3,836) ($4,181) ($4,557) ($4,967) ($5,414) ($5,902) ($6,433) $1,514 ($4,242) $29,748 $33,245 $36,794 $41,102 $41,088 $40,533 $40,036 $21,885 $4,937 $3,137 $4,651 $409 $30,157 $63,402 $100,196 $141,299 $182,386 $222,919 $262,955 $284,840 $4,651 $409 $30,157 $63,402 $100,196 $141,299 $182,386 $222,919 $262,955 $284,840 $289,777
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Brian E. Bayley, Director With more than 25 years of business experience, Mr. Bayley has extensive knowledge in areas of asset backed lending, real estate, corporate restructuring and natural resources. Mr. Bayley is currently a Director and Resource Lending Advisor of Sprott Resource Lending Corp. (formerly Quest Capital Corp.), a TSX and NYSE Amex listed resource lending corporation. Previously, he was President and CEO of Quest Capital Corp. Mr. Bayley holds an MBA from Queens University. Mr. Bayley is currently a director and/or officer on numerous other public companies. George T. Hawes, Director Mr. Hawes is a private investor and is President of G.T. Hawes & Co., a private New York real estate and investment company. He is currently a Director of Proginet Corporation, an enterprise security software company, and is a Director of Midway Gold Corp., a gold exploration and development company. Dr. E. Kelly Hyslop, Director Dr. Hyslop is a Director of Proginet Corporation, a publicly traded company on the NASDAQ BB, in Long Island, New York. Dr. Hyslop is retired after 25 years as a Physician and Clinical Professor in the Department of Medicine at UBC. He has been involved in multiple start-up companies, generally in finance and then involved on the Board or Directors.
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BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
HOLD
SELL
Other Disclosures This report has been approved by Byron for distribution in Canada for the use of Byrons clients. Clients wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed should do so through a qualified Byron salesperson, registered in their jurisdiction. Informational Reports From time to time, Byron will issue reports that are for information purposes only, and will not include investment ratings. These reports will be clearly labeled as appropriate.
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Company Directory
EXECUTIVE
Campbell Becher Ed Flood Geoff Clarke, MBA, LL.B., LL.M. Dale Sampson Gillian Wong-Hinds, CGA Robert Orviss, CFA Derrick Chiu Brad Freelan John Rak Chris Hobbs, CA Greg Borsk, CA Steve Lambros, MD Elisa Chio Mary Stuart Russell Mills Marco Beretta Guy Gordon, CFA, MBA Jon Hykawy, PhD, MBA Al P. Nagaraj, M.S., MBA Byron Berry, M.A., CFA Jeff Wu, CFA Brian Szeto, M.A., CFA Jonathan Lee, MBA Merril W. McHenry, CFA Omid Ameri Trading Desk Nick Stajduhar Jonathan Samahin, CFA Tom Chudnovsky David Kemp Cyrus Osena Graham Farrell Kariv Oretsky Nick Perkell Sandy Lam Mike Gardner Charles Pollock Charlie Mitchell Taylor Davison Kathy Sherban Joe Ladeira Beata Antoszek, CGA Elisabeth Wightwick Dorothy Dudek Shawn Morgan Sandra Stefanescu Victoria Williston Jen Levy Sandra Day Zarina Belcher Chief Executive Officer Non-Executive Chairman President and Chief Operating Officer Chief Compliance Officer Chief Financial Officer 416-867-8882 416-867-1569 416-867-8883 647-426-1657 campbell@byroncapitalmarkets.com eflood@byroncapitalmarkets.com gclarke@byroncapitalmarkets.com dsampson@byroncapitalmarkets.com gwh@byroncapitalmarkets.com rorviss@byroncapitalmarkets.com derrick@byroncapitalmarkets.com bfreelan@byroncapitalmarkets.com jrak@byroncapitalmarkets.com chobbs@byroncapitalmarkets.com gborsk@byroncapitalmarkets.com slambros@byroncapitalmarkets.com elisa@byroncapitalmarkets.com mstuart@byroncapitalmarkets.com rmills@byroncapitalmarkets.com mberetta@byroncapitalmarkets.com guy@byroncapitalmarkets.com jhykawy@byroncapitalmarkets.com anagaraj@byroncapitalmarkets.com bberry@byroncapitalmarkets.com jwu@byroncapitalmarkets.com bszeto@byroncapitalmarkets.com jlee@byroncapitalmarkets.com mmchenry@byroncapitalmarkets.com oameri@byroncapitalmarkets.com
INVESTMENT BANKING
Managing Director Managing Director, Head of Equity Capital Markets Vice President, Investment Banking Vice President, Investment Banking Co-Head, Mergers and Acquisitions Co-Head, Mergers and Acquisitions Associate Associate Associate Associate Associate, Syndication 647-426-1668 647-426-1662 416-867-3144 604-697-2456 647-426-0467 647-426-0466 647-426-1659 647-426-0288 604-616-5311 647-426-0290
RESEARCH
Managing Director, Head of Research, Oil & Gas Analyst Head of Global Research, Clean Tech and Materials Analyst Special Situations Analyst Strategist Mining Analyst Mining Analyst Battery Materials and Technologies Analyst Mining and Metals Analyst Associate
647-426-0289 647-426-1672 647-426-1656 647-426-0291 416-867-1623 604-697-2455 647-426-1673 647-426-1674 647-426-1660 416-867-3984
TORONTO VANCOUVER 4 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 1100 1075 WEST GEORGIA STREET, SUITE 1330 TORONTO, ON M5H 1B6 VANCOUVER, BC V6E 3C9
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