Market Insights

Headlines

23 June 2011

Risk sold lower after US Fed stands pat on rates, suggests more stimulus not currently needed USD rallies on Feds higher revised inflation forecasts, EUR, GBP both sharply lower Aussie reverses overnight from resistance at 1.0640 Commodities ease as greenback strengthens, crude lower on lower growth forecasts US equities surge, with Nasdaq the leader. Dow and Nasdaq were down 0.7% Looking forward, UK inflation hearings tonight could produce further pound selling, US jobs at 10.30pm

AUD/USD
Resistance 1.0640 Support 1.0500 Market Sentiment

Rangebound

The Aussie moved right back to the top of the trading range at 1.0640 overnight before the sellers came back into the market sending the pair back to support at 1.0500. From here, traders will be looking to ride the move back to 1.0640, with the expectation that the trading range will remain in place until we see a clear break in either direction.

XAU/USD
Resistance 1555/60 Support 1530 Market Sentiment

Bearish Gold looks to be heading back to the lower end of the range after rejecting levels above 1555. This could see the precious metal move back to 1530 before getting ready for its next step higher, In the near term, traders will be looking to ride the move back to 1530.

EUR/USD
Resistance 1.4440 Support 1.4200 Market Sentiment

Bearish The Euros looking more bearish after last nights statements from the US Federal Reserve. The heightened inflation expectations have produced some greenback strength and this has caused the EUR/USD pair to weaken. This suggests the medium term downtrend in back in place and short-term targets are to 1.4200.

GBP/USD
Resistance 1.6080/100 Support 1.6000 Market Sentiment

Bearish The GBPUSD was smashed lower overnight from resistance at 1.6250 after the BoE minutes were released. This saw the pound drop almost 200 pips overnight and suggests that the bears are in control of this market. From here, traders will be looking to take new shorts on any move back to 1.6100.

USD/JPY
Resistance 80.70 Support 80.35/40 Market Sentiment

Bullish The USD/JPY has finally broken out of its week-long trading range thanks to a burst of strength from the USD. This followed the US Feds rate decision and press conference. From here, traders are likely to favour the long side, with resistance seen at 80.70 and then 81.10.

SILVER
Resistance 36.60 Support 36.00 Market Sentiment

Bullish Traders had multiple opportunities to get long at support at 36.00 over the last 24 hours with the short-term price movement capped at 36.60. While silver remains above 36.00, the picture remains bullish, and a break of 36.60 is likely to see a continuation of the gains.

USD/CHF
Resistance 85.50 Support 83.30 Market Sentiment

Bearish The dollar-Swiss has benefited from the overnight strength in the greenback and has clearly bounced from support down at 83.30. For now, the market expects a move back to the top end of the range, at 85.50, at which point we are likely to see the sellers head back into the market.

GBP/JPY
Resistance 130.40 Support 129.00 Market Sentiment

Bearish The GBP/JPY traded perfectly overnight, rejecting resistance at 130.40 and tumbling back to 129.00. This followed the BoE minutes that suggested the central bank was now less likely to raise rates. For now, the market is keeping a close eye on the 129.00 level as any move below this level is likely to see selling.

AUD/JPY
Resistance 85.20/30 Support 84.20 Market Sentiment

Bullish The Aussie-yen has continued to find sellers up at 85.20/30 over the last 24 hours but the rising short-term support around 84.80 suggests that we might see a break higher in the near term. A break above 85.30 might be seen as bullish but the pair is only likely to target topside resistance at 85.80.

OIL
Resistance 95.60 Support 94.00 Market Sentiment

Bullish Oil looks to have shifted into a more bullish phase despite the initial selldown after the Fed statement. Oils ability to make a new short-term high at 95.60 is a bullish signal and traders could be looking for buying opportunities around 94.00. A clear break of 93.00 will be seen as bearish.

Economic Calendar
F/Cast
CHF: EUR: EUR: GBP: EUR: Trade Balance Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI BBA Mortgage Approvals EU Economic Summit 1.68B 53.9 55.5 30K

Last
1.44B 54.6 56.0 29.4K USD: Unemployment Claims CAD: Gov Council Murray Speak USD: New Home Sales EUR: ECB Pres. Trichet Speaks GBP: MPC Member Posen Speak

F/Cast
414K 311K

Last
414K 323K

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