by Tony Juniper The rapid changes taking place in the Earths climatic system pose what is arguably humankinds

most urgent and important challenge. The changes are caused by the build up of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, released from the burning of fossil fuels and the clearance of forests. Methane is also a powerful warming agent, released from natural gas fields, landfill sites and coal mines, among other sources. These and other greenhouse gases trap heat, and their rising concentration is causing average temperatures to go up. This in turn is leading to changes in the natural world. Melting glaciers, rising sea levels and more intense storms are among detectable signs of global change. The question now is not whether it is happening, but more about how quickly and by how much. Climate scientists believe that there is now very little time remaining before we must make major cuts in the release of greenhouse gases, otherwise the impacts that are expected to follow in the decades ahead could become unmanageable, causing massive environmental, economic and humanitarian damage. The latest science says that we need to reach a peak in emissions by 2015 at the latest and from then on to sustain cuts to below 80 % by 2050 (compared to emission levels in 2000). Recent projections suggest that average global temperatures could increase by four degrees centigrade this century, compared to pre-industrial times. This is a huge shift. The last time the world was even three degrees warmer than now was about three million years ago. Because there was less polar ice, sea levels were some 15 metres higher and trees grew in Greenland. The changes that might accompany four degrees of warming we can expect to be devastating. Farmland will be lost to flooding from the sea. Large scale property damage will come with more extreme storms. More frequent and extreme floods and droughts will cause humanitarian disasters and damage to crops. In some areas freshwater will be more scarce, especially in those regions that are already semi-arid. Diseases will spread. Changes to ecosystems will hasten the loss of many species of animals and plants. This level of warming could also trigger different feedbacks that could make the warming even more rapid and severe, for example because of forests dying due to drought and the release of methane from melting permafrost. The most severe impacts will fall on the worlds poorest people, who in addition to being least able to cope are also least responsible for the changes now occurring. This fact could in the years ahead lead to grave political tensions, as hundreds of millions of climate refugees from poorer nations seek sanctuary in the more developed regions. It is still possible to keep climate change to a level that we can cope with, but only if we take action now. We must cut emissions from transport, factories and homes and take action to stop deforestation. If we dont do all this, then we will fail to stabilise temperature increases at a manageable level and commit the world to potentially devastating impacts. These changes will not only be in the distant future, but in the next few decades. Time is short and action required now. For more information on climate change, please visit http://www.realclimate.org/