EV PHEV Brochure

ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN Electric HYBRID VEHICLE RoADmAP I I Plug-in hybrid gasoline
I CNG/LPG I Hybrid (gasoline) I Plug-in hybrid diesel I Conventional gasoline Annual light-duty vehicle sales, I scenario, BLUE MapDiesel hybrid 2000-2050
180
Passenger LDV Sales (million)
I H2 hybrid fuel cell
I Conventional diesel
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Diesel hybrid CNG/LPG
H2 hybrid fuel cell
diesel Conventional
Plug -in h
Hyb
Plug
Electric
ybr id d iese l
Conventional gasoline
rid (
gaso
-in h
line)
2040
ybri
d ga
solin
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2045
2050
Key findings
u Roadmap vision: industry and governments should attain a combined EV/PHEV sales share of at least 50% of LDV sales worldwide by 2050. u In addition to contributing significant greenhouse-gas emissions reductions, the roadmaps level of EV/PHEV sales will deliver substantial benefits in terms of improved oil security, reduced urban area pollution and noise. u Policy support is critical, especially in two areas: ensuring vehicles become cost-competitive and providing adequate recharging infrastructure. u The consumer comes first: wider use of EVs/PHEVs will require an improved understanding of consumer needs and desires, as well as consumer willingness to change vehicle purchase and travel behaviour. u Performance measurement will be needed: the IEA roadmap contains a set of proposed metrics and targets for key attributes like driving range and battery requirements to ensure that EVs/PHEVs achieve their potential. u RD&D priorities: research, development and demonstration must continue to reduce battery costs and ensure adequate materials supply. More research is also needed on smart grids and the vehicle-grid interface. u International collaboration can accelerate deployment: industry and governments need to work together on research programmes, codes and standards, and alignment of vehicle and infrastructure roll-out.
OECD/IEA, 2010
Total sales (thousands)
3 800
4 700
6 000
6 000
Urgent action needed in the next 10 years to achieve 2050 targets
8 800
10 000
10 000
10 000
8 000 5 900
8 000 6 400
8 000
6 000
4 000 2 100
4 000 2 000
3 100
4 000
2 000 260 150
2 000 140 170
2 000
EV sales PHEV sales
2015
2030
2050
2015
2030
2050
Cost (USD/kWh)
3 800
OECD North America

8 800 10 000
OECD OECD Europe North America

8 800 EV sales 10 000 PHEV sales 8 000 Total sales (thousands) Total sales (thousands) Total sales (thousands) 8 000 6 400 5 900 10 000
OECD OECD PacificEurope

10 000 4 000 10 000 2 100
OECD Pacific
4 000 10 000 2 000 8 000 2 000
1 900
700
6 400
3 800 Total sales (thousands)
5 900
3 800
Total sales (thousands) 70
6 200
2 400
2 000 150 5 900
1 900 6 400
260
260
2 200
170
170
140
150
140
140
6 000 0 4 000
700 4140 700
3 800
19 900
260
170
150
140
140
2015
2030
2050
2015
2030
9 400
8 600
4 700 24 600
8 000 Total sales (thousands)
6 000 6 200
8 000 Total sales (thousands) 3 800
6 000 16 500
5 900
Number of models offered through 2020

40 Number of models 30 20 10 0 2010 2012
11 400 11 400 6 000
6 400
10 000
8 000
10 000
8 000
19 900
16 500 9 600
16 500
China
India
Total EV + PHEV global vehicle sales
All other
10 000
8 000
2 100
2 000
150600 8
8 600
2 200
1 900
170
140
1 600
70
140
11 400
6 200
6 200
Total sales (thousands) Total sales (thousands)
9 400
3 900 8 600
3 900
10 000
4 000 2 200
2 200
600 100 6 200 1 900 150
1 900
1 600
600
100
150
2015
2020
50
30
50
6 000 3 900 10 40 0 4 000 1 600 2015
30
EV sales
2050 PHEV sales 9 300
Vehicle sales must grow rapidly
2015
2030
2050
4 000
0 2015 2 200
2015 2030
2030 2050
2050
4 000
10
0 2015
40
2015 2030 1 900
2030 2050
2050
2030
150
11 400 0
2 000 00
2 000 0 0 600
2 000
10 000
10 000
9 300
16 500
2 000
2 000 6 000
2 000
2 000 6 000
2 000
2 000
1 600
4 000 8 000
4 000
4 000 8 000
4 000
4 000
8 000
EV/PHEV sales must reach substantial levels by 2015, and rise rapidly thereafter in order to achieve 2050 CO2 reduction targets. Sales are expected to spread to nonOECD regions over time.
19 900
6 000 10 000
2015
9 600
6 000
6 000 10 000
6 000
India
6 000 0
2030
2050
All other
China
100
150
30
50
600
8 000
8 000
8 000
8 000
8 2 000 000
2015
2030
2 8 000 000 2050 0 6 000
2015
2030
2050
2 000 10
2015
2030
24 600
700
10 000
10 000
10 000
10 000
10 4 000 000
2 000
4 000 10 000
2 000
4 000
2 000
2050
2015
2030
2050
2015
40
2030
2050
1 300
PHEV models
260 9 600
9 600
9 400
9 400
3 900
1 900
All other
2 400
EV models
China
India
China
India All other
4 000
6 000
4 000
6 000
al EV + PHEV global vehicle sales
Total sales (thousands) 3 100
4 000
24 600
8 000
6 000
Total EV + PHEV global vehicle sales
8 800
2050 10 000
11 400
OECD North America 0
2015
2030
OECD Europe
2050 10 000
19 900
700
Battery costs for PHEVs and EVs must drop 2015 rapidly toward USD 300/kWh in order to bring vehicle costs to competitive levels.
3 100
2030
2050
2015
2015 2050 2030 2030 2 100
2 400
2050 4 000
2015 2030 2 000
1 900
2 000
2 000
2 000 70
1 300
2015
2030
2050
30
PHEV sales
100
150
2030 2050 EV sales
2050
4 000
2 2015 000 2030
2050
2 000 50
16 600500
0 2015
1 900
6 000
70
700
2 000
2 000
2 000
2 000 6 000
2 000
2015
2020
2 000
4 000
1 300
0 2010
2 100
1 900
8 000
4 000
19 900
8 000
2 2 400 000 1 300
4 000
4 000
4 000
4 000 8 000
4 000
4 000
6 000
6 000
2 100 100 3
3 100
Target cost
8 800
200
4 700
4 700
6 000
OECD North America

6 000 6 000 10 000
OECD Europe
6 000 10 000
6 000 0
OECD Pacific
2050 10 000
2015
2030
0 6 000
8 2015 000 2030
2050
70
2015 8 000
2030
2050
8 600
260
400
8 000
8 000
2 000 8 000 150
9 400
10 000 170 140
2 000
10 000 140
9 600 49 100
1 300
China
India
2 400
600
3 100
4 000
52 200
4 700
800
6 000
6 000
Total sales (thousands) 11 400
5 900
Expected cost
6 000
49 100
All other
10 000
49 100 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 2015 2030 2050 0
1 000
EV sales PHEV sales
Electric and plug-in hybrid sales PHEV vehicle indicative sales targets in BLUE Map scenario
EV sales
8 800
Battery costs through 2020
Global map of regional EV/PHEV sales
10 000
10 000
8 000
8 000 6 400
52 200
10 000
8 000
OECD Pacific
10 000
52 200
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Total sales (thousands) Total sales (thousands)
8 600
10 000
2015
2030
2050
2015
2030
2050 10 000
2015
2030
6 200
6 000
2 200
1 900
4 000
4 000 0
Global emissions (Gt CO2)
30
2015
2030
2050
2015
5 4 3 2 1
6 000
2030
2050
500
0 EV contribution 2015 2030
2015
40
2 000
800 5 900 10
50
2 000 100 150
2 000
600
4 000 2 000
1 600
2015
8 000 2030
6 000 4 000 0
2050
2015
3 800 900
800
6 000 2 000 500
8 000 6 000
2 000
500
8 800
CO2 emission reduction, BLUE Map scenario, 2010-2050
8 000
8 000 4 000
10 000
10 000 8 000
4 000
9 300
2050 10 000 6 000
9 600
To
9 400 1
China
8 000 India
OECD North America

6 000
8 All other 000
6.0
2030 2050 2050
2050
2030
Other (conventio nal efficiency, fuel cell vehicles, mix shift) 2 000
150 260
2015
2 100
3.1
PHEV contribution (from electricity) PHEV contribution4(fr 000 om liquid fuel efficiency)
2030
2050
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
0.8
2050
Billion litres gasoline-equivalent
BLUE Map
The GHG reductions and EV/PHEV penetrations displayed here are based on the IEA ETP BLUE Map scenario, which targets an aggressive 50% reduction in CO2 worldwide by 2050 relative to 2005 levels. For transport, a 30% GHG reduction is targeted, which will require rapid market penetration of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. For light-duty vehicles, electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles account for 2.6 Gt of CO2equivalent emissions reductions by 2050, about half of total reductions for light-duty vehicles.
Final energy consumption in the transportation sector, by fuel type
Less carbon-intensive electricity is needed to realise EV/PHEV emissions reductions

Carbon intensity of electricity (gCO2/kWh) 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 2005 2030 OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Former Soviet Union Eastern Europe China Other Asia India Middle East Latin America 2050 2030 BLUE 2050
2 500 Baseline BLUE Map 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 2005 2015 2030 Baseline BLUE Map
Baseline
Hydrogen Electricity CNG/LPG fuels GTL and CTL Biofuels Conventional diesel Conventional gasoline
2050
Baseline
China
10 000
Africa World
9 400
11 400
3 800
6 200
8 000 www.iea.org/roadmaps nds)
OECD/IEA, 2010
EV/PHEV roadmap milestones
2010
Policy framework
Adequate incentives for EV/PHEV purchase and production in line with targets; co-ordination of recharging infrastructure development in key areas
2020
Vehicle sales 7 million Global market share 9%
2030
2040
2050
EVs should become commercially viable without significant subsidies; support should continue for widespread expansion of recharching infrastructure
Fast recharging options have achieved lower cost, with batteries well suited; support for widespread implementation of fast recharging as needed to ensure widespread availability
Availability of higher power/energy-dense batteries should position policy makers to encourage remaining segments of light-duty vehicle markets to go electric, including greater use in larger, longer-distance vehicles
Vehicles/batteries
Low- and medium-volume production, with design optimisations to 2015, then rapidly increase numbers of models offered and average production volumes; battery and other costs decline to target levels Vehicles become fully commercial, batteries reach all target specifications for cost and durability, including additional cycling tolerance in line with advanced batteries; full recycling systems in place Batteries continue to improve; introduce a new generation of batteries that significantly outperform lithium-ion at a similar cost EVs achieve superiority to internal combustion engines in most respects, close the gap in driving range
Codes/standards
Ensure plugs and charging systems are compatible across major regions, including basic smart metering systems for home and public recharging stations; develop protocols for fast recharging Common systems for vehicle-to-grid electricity sales, fast recharge and/or battery swapping well established Refine codes and standards as needed; modify to accommodate innovations in batteries, smart grid systems, etc., but minimise the need for reinvestments in existing systems
Recharging/electricity infrastructure
Establish home recharging and begin major investments in street/office daytime commercial recharging, including rapid charging where appropriate Expansion of recharging infrastructure to more areas; greater use of fast recharging; fully established vehicle-to-grid electricity systems Completion of most recharging infrastructure in OECD and other major economies; expand globally as countries establish reliable, lowcarbon electricity generation systems Ongoing recharging infrastructure and generation system expansion and refinement as needed; with ongoing increase in systems and capacity to handle fast charging
RD&D
Ensure vehicle/battery systems are reliable and safe; achieve near-term technical and cost targets, such as USD 300/kWh battery cost; develop advanced battery concepts and prototypes Continue RD&D on advanced battery designs moving towards demonstration and deployment as concepts mature; incorporate lessons learned from earlier experiences Achieve widespread introduction of next generation of battery, full deployment of smart-grid systems and related technologies Ongoing RD&D as needed; focus on improving battery performance to maximise vehicle driving range
International Energy Agency www.iea.org/roadmaps

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ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN Electric HYBRID VEHICLE RoADmAP I I Plug-in hybrid gasoline

I H2 hybrid fuel cell

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Diesel hybrid CNG/LPG

H2 hybrid fuel cell

Total sales (thousands)

Total sales (thousands)

Total sales (thousands)

Urgent action needed in the next 10 years to achieve 2050 targets

2 000 260 150

2 000 140 170

EV sales PHEV sales

Total sales (thousands)

OECD North America

OECD OECD Europe North America

OECD OECD PacificEurope

Total sales (thousands)

3 800 Total sales (thousands)

Total sales (thousands)

Total sales (thousands)

Total sales (thousands) 70

Total sales (thousands)

2 000 150 5 900

Total sales (thousands)

700 4140 700

Total sales (thousands)

Total sales (thousands)

8 000 Total sales (thousands)

8 000 Total sales (thousands) 3 800

Total sales (thousands)

Number of models offered through 2020

Total EV + PHEV global vehicle sales

Total sales (thousands)

Total sales (thousands)

Total sales (thousands)

Total sales (thousands) Total sales (thousands)

600 100 6 200 1 900 150

Total sales (thousands)

6 000 3 900 10 40 0 4 000 1 600 2015

Vehicle sales must grow rapidly

2015 2030 1 900

Total sales (thousands)

Total sales (thousands)

Total sales (thousands)

2 8 000 000 2050 0 6 000

India All other

al EV + PHEV global vehicle sales

Total sales (thousands) 3 100

Total EV + PHEV global vehicle sales

OECD North America 0

2015 2050 2030 2030 2 100

2015 2030 2 000

2030 2050 EV sales

2 2015 000 2030

Total sales (thousands)

2 2 400 000 1 300

Total sales (thousands)

OECD North America

8 2015 000 2030

2 000 8 000 150

10 000 170 140

Total sales (thousands)

Total sales (thousands) 11 400