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ACI Limited
January 2010
Company Summary 52-week Price Range (BDT) Current Price 12-month Target Price Dividend Yield Total Return Number of Shares MM Market Cap BDT MM BDT MM Revenue Ops Income Net Income Margins Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin Growth Revenue Growth Operating Income Growth Net Income Growth Per Share EPS Dividend Book Value/Share Cashflow BDT MM Operating Capex Dividend Valuation P/E P/B ROE Miscellaneous BDT MM Total Debt Cash Debt/Equity
600
ACI Limited is one of the largest and most recognized pharmaceuticals manufacturing companies in Bangladesh. Maintaining the legacy of its predecessor company British ICI, ACI has good manufacturing practices and technical leadership in its flagship pharmaceuticals business. However, the company has expanded its business beyond pharmaceuticals encompassing agro-chemical, animal health, agromachinery, consumer brands and retail chains. Since the company has been expanding its business horizon rather aggressively for the last few years, ACI has found itself in a cash crunch, which ultimately led the company to resort to a fair bit of leverage. Despite cash constraint, ACI is one of the more consistent dividend paying companies in the local market. We initiate our coverage of ACI Limited with a Sector Perform rating and a 12-month target price of BDT 675. Our recommendation considers the superior revenue generating ability of pharma business and the growth potential of ACIs agro-chemical business whose merits are somewhat counteracted by the expansion into consumer brands and retail chain business. Our price target is based on a P/E ratio of 18x expected 2011 EPS of BDT 39.44 and 3.0x expected 2011 book value of BDT 222.03. We believe that despite its upside potential, significant risk remains because of ACIs over-leverage and over-extension. Our target price is predicated upon ACI being able to improve its cash position by issuance of zero-coupon bonds, improvement of the retail business or outright divestment, and making sizable profit on its consumer item (salt, flour) businesses. Table 1: Performance Snapshot
2006 Sales YoY Growth Operating Income Operating Margin Net Income YoY Growth Net Margin Dividend/Share Total Debt Total Assets Debt/Asset Debt/Equity BDT MM BDT MM BDT MM BDT MM BDT MM BDT 4,237.9 27% 452.6 33% 139.7 3% 3% 6.00 1,776.0 3,716.3 61% 146% 2007 5,756.8 36% 609.7 35% 364.2 161% 6% 8.50 3,024.0 5,911.9 64% 168% 2008 10,341.4 80% 947.5 55% 932.9 156% 9% 10.00 4,944.8 9,409.3 66% 176% 2009E 11,050.6 7% 1,001.0 6% 784.7 -16% 7% 10.00 5,259.9 10,392.9 63% 155% 2010E 13,632.4 23% 1,239.2 24% 465.4 -41% 3% 10.00 5,729.5 11,435.8 63% 156% 2011E 16,139.4 18% 1,639.1 32% 774.8 66% 5% 10.00 5,029.5 11,533.0 56% 117%
2008A 2009E -1,514.2 578.4 -1,212.1 -1,500.0 -161.7 -194.0 2008A 10.6x 3.5x 33% 2008A 4,944.8 233.8 176% 2009E 12.6x 2.9x 23% 2009E 5,259.9 -566.8 155%
500
1000000
400
800000
300
600000
200
400000
100
200000
ACI completes the convertible zero-coupon bond transaction by early 2010 Gross margin for the pharma and agro-chemicals segment remain high and then levels off to the industry average in the longer terms Gross margin for the consumer and retail segments stabilize at the 20% level Selling, general and operating costs accelerates because of expansion of the consumer and retail items during the initial years; expense growth rate slows down in the later years when the retail businesses mature ACI pays off its short term debts first and maintains a D/E ratio of about 30%.
578,368,698 1,114,949,068 1,231,726,511 1,410,844,831 1,690,114,889 1,788,059,630 1,967,010,983 -1,500,000,000 315,090,975 -606,540,327 -679,457,053 469,599,385 905,091,401 -467,678,231 64,048,280 -400,178,280 -60,150,210 -424,931,576 -451,216,003 -200,000,000 -479,126,271 -200,000,000 21,037,902,697 23,396,572,260 2,358,669,563 1,136,843,627 22,325,787,409 -700,000,000 -1,070,816,761 -1,200,000,000
Source: BRAC EPL Estimates Other Pharmaceuticals Square Pharmaceuticals Beximco Pharmaceuticals Renata Reckitt Benckiser GlaxoSmithKline Average ACI Source: BRAC EPL Estimates Price 2008 EPS 2938.25 125.25 164.71 3.61 9970.25 303.37 1252.31 35.05 640.21 11.87 428.81 18.16 P/E 23.46 45.63 32.86 35.73 53.94 38.32 23.62 BVPS 659.32 69.14 438.37 92.46 75.72 144.92 P/B 4.46 2.38 22.74 13.54 8.45 10.32 2.96 ACI valuation 2011 estimates Multiple Target price EPS 39.41 18.0 709.40 BVPS 222.03 3.0 666.08
We believe 2009 and 2010 will continue to be transition years for ACI and would not reflect its real earnings potential. Based on 2011 earnings and book value, and a 18x P/E and 3.0x P/B, we derive a target price of BDT 675 in 2011. With an average 2.0% dividend yield, this price target would provide a 17% total return in 12 months.
PPE Net Capital work-in-progress Intangible assets Investment Total non-current assets
Total assets
3,716.3
5,911.9
9,409.3
10,392.9
11,435.8
11,533.0
Bank overdraft Short term bank loan Long term bank loan- Current portion Creditors Other current liabilities Total current liabilities
Zero coupon bond Long term bank loan Other liabilities Long term liabilities 44.5 325.6 370.1 281.2 348.6 629.8 313.3 312.4 625.7 313.3 312.4 625.7
Total liabilities
2,503.9
4,111.7
6,597.3
6,990.3
7,761.8
7,224.8
Minority interest
79.3
92.8
308.0
308.0
308.0
308.0
3,716.3
5,911.9
9,409.3
10,392.9
11,435.8
11,533.0
Book value per share Source: Company Annual Reports and BRAC EPL Estimates
62.48
92.77
144.92
175.36
189.34
222.03
Segment contribution to revenue: Pharma and chemicals Consumer and retail 34% 66% 37% 63% 28% 72% 34% 66% 36% 64% 37% 63%
Margins: Gross margin Operating margin EBITDA Margin Net margin 35% 11% 14% 3% 35% 11% 16% 6% 30% 9% 18% 9% 29% 9% 17% 7% 29% 9% 12% 3% 29% 10% 13% 5%
Ratios: Depreciation/assets Inventory turnover Sales/assets Working capital (MM BDT) Working capital ratio Return on equity Return on assets 0% 224% 114% 7.0 100% 12% 4% 0% 237% 97% -254.2 93% 20% 6% 6% 232% 110% -45.4 99% 33% 10% 6% 275% 106% -680.5 89% 23% 8% 6% 300% 119% 251.1 104% 13% 4% 6% 349% 140% 591.8 110% 18% 7%
Leverage: Debt/equity Debt/assets 146% 61% 168% 64% 176% 66% 155% 63% 156% 63% 117% 56%
Per share: EPS CFPS BVPS 7.20 3.94 62.48 18.77 -21.23 92.77 48.08 -78.04 144.92 40.44 29.81 175.36 23.98 57.46 189.34 39.41 63.48 222.03
Multiples: P/E P/B Source: Company Annual Reports and BRAC EPL Estimates 59.0x 8.2x 22.6x 5.5x 8.8x 3.5x 12.6x 2.9x 21.3x 2.7x 12.9x 2.3x