Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends and Projections in Europe 2008 Tracking Progress Towards Kyoto Targets Annexes

EEA report | No 5/2008
Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2008

Annex: Additional information on greenhouse gas emission trends and projections by sector and by Member State
Contents
Contents
A 1 Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU ........................ 4 A 1.1 Sector shares and main trends in the EU-15 ...........................5 A 1.2 Energy supply (energy industries) .........................................8
A 1.2.1 A 1.2.2 A 1.2.3 CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production ................. 13 CO2 emissions from petroleum refining.................................. 20 CO2 emissions from the manufacture of solid fuels and other energy industries ............................................................... 22 CO2 emissions from energy use in manufacturing industries and construction ...................................................................... 24 CO2 emission from energy use and processes for iron and steel production......................................................................... 26 CO2 emissions from energy use in the chemical industry .......... 31 CO2 emissions from energy use in the pulp, paper and print industry ............................................................................ 33 CO2 emissions from energy use in the food-processing, beverages and tobacco industry .......................................................... 36 CO2 emissions from energy use in other industries .................. 38 CO2 emissions from energy use in agriculture, forestry, fisheries42 CO2 emissions from energy use in services ............................ 44 CO2 emissions from energy use in households ........................ 48 CO2 emissions from road transport ....................................... 58 CO2 emissions from domestic civil aviation............................. 65 CO2 emissions from cement production (2A1)......................... 71 HFC emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning equipment (2F1)................................................................................ 75 CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation (4A) ........................ 80 N2O emissions from agricultural soils (4D) ............................. 83
A 1.3
Energy use (excluding transport)......................................... 24

A 1.3.1 A 1.3.2 A 1.3.3 A 1.3.4 A 1.3.5 A 1.3.6 A 1.3.7 A 1.3.8 A 1.3.9
A 1.4
Energy use from transport.................................................. 55

A 1.4.1 A 1.4.2
A 1.5
Industrial processes .......................................................... 68

A 1.5.1 A 1.5.2 N2O emissions from nitric acid production (2B2) .................................... 73
A 1.6
Agriculture ....................................................................... 77
A 1.6.1 A 1.6.2
A 1.7
Waste.............................................................................. 86
A 2 Key policies and measures .............................................................92 A 2.1 Savings from the main EU 'common and coordinated policies and measures' (CCPMs) ........................................................... 92
A 2.1.1 A 2.1.2 A 2.1.3 A 2.1.4 A 2.1.5 Key EU CCPMs ................................................................... 92 Estimated savings from EU CCPMs ........................................ 93 Estimated savings from CCPMs at EU-27, EU-15 and EU-12 level97 Estimated savings from CCPMs by Member State .................... 99 Recent developments and proposals relating to EU CCPMs ......101 2
Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2008 Annexes 1-5
Contents
A 2.2 Main savings from existing and additional domestic policies and measures in the EU-15 .................................................... 103
A 2.2.1 A 2.2.2 A 2.2.3 Reporting of policies and measures by Member States and quantitative estimates. ......................................................103 Savings from PAMs as estimated by EU-15 Member States......104 Savings at sectoral level in the EU-15 ..................................106
A 2.3
Main savings from existing and additional domestic policies and measures in the EU-12 .................................................... 108
A 2.3.1 A 2.3.2 Savings from PAMs as estimated by EU-12 Member States......108 Savings at sectoral level in the EU-12 ..................................109
A 3 Use of Kyoto mechanisms ............................................................111 A 3.1 Flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto protocol (Kyoto mechanisms).................................................................. 111
A 3.1.1 A 3.1.2 A 3.1.3 Joint implementation .........................................................111 Clean development mechanism ...........................................112 Emissions trading ..............................................................112
A 3.2 A 3.3 A 3.4 A 3.5 A 3.6
Projected emission reductions through Kyoto mechanisms .... 112 Allocated budgets............................................................ 114 Type of projects .............................................................. 114 Host regions for CDM projects........................................... 116 Host regions for JI projects............................................... 117
A 4 Accounting of carbon sinks ..........................................................119 A 4.1 Carbon sinks under the Kyoto Protocol ............................... 119
A 4.1.1 A 4.1.2 Article 3.3 activities ...........................................................119 Article 3.4 activities ...........................................................119
A 4.2 A 4.3 A 4.4
Information from Member States on the use of carbon sinks . 120 Findings from the review of the initial report under the Kyoto Protocol ......................................................................... 120 Use of sinks for achieving the EU Kyoto target..................... 121
A 5 The reporting scheme ..................................................................123 A 5.1 Greenhouse gas inventories (19902006)........................... 123 A 5.2 A 5.3 Greenhouse gas emission projections (2010) ...................... 126 Methodological issues ...................................................... 128
A 5.3.1 A 5.3.2 A 5.3.3 A 5.3.4 A 5.3.5 A 5.3.6 Greenhouse gas emissions reporting categories .....................128 Adjustment on projections reported by countries ...................128 Gap filling procedures for projections ...................................130 Calculating savings from national policies and measures .........130 Calculating savings from CCPMs ..........................................130 Calculating a 'without measures' projection scenario ..............131
References ..........................................................................................132 Glossary..............................................................................................133
Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU
A 1 Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

ThisannexpresentssectoralemissionstrendsandprojectionsintheEU,asreportedbyMember States.Italsoattemptstolinkthesetrendswithexistingorplannedpoliciesandmeasures(PAM) intheEU.Emissionsarepresentedbymainemittingsource,accordingtothenomenclature establishedbytheintergovernmentalpanelonclimatechange(IPCC)forthecalculationof greenhousegasemissions. ReportingofindicatorsundertheMonitoringMechanism: Besideshistoricandprojectedtrendsinsectoralgreenhousegasemissions,thisannexalso includeshistoricandprojectedtrendsindicators(andtheirrespectivenumeratorsand denominators),asreportedbyMemberStatesundertheMonitoringMechanismDecision (CommissionDecision(166/2005/EC)implementingDecision280/2004/EC).Theseindicators havebeendefinedtomeasuretheeffectsofpoliciesandmeasuresovertime.Fourcategoriesof indicatorsaredefined,threeconcerningpastdataandonerelativetoprojecteddata: 7priorityindicators,whichmustbereportedbyMemberStateseveryyear, 6additionalpriorityindicatorsand15SupplementaryIndicators,whichMemberStates areencouragedtoreporteveryyear, 10indicatorsforprojectionsfortheyears2005,2010,2015and2020.
Thepastindicatorsshallcoverdataatleastforthelastinventoryyear(2006).However,the provisionofthewholetimeseries19902006allowsabetterassessmentoftheeffectivenessof policiesandmeasures.Thecomparabilityoftheseindicatorsbetweencountriesislimitedbythe factthatMemberStatesusesometimesdifferentbasesforaccountingofnumeratorand denominator.
A 1.1
Sector shares and main trends in the EU-15
Approximately80%oftotalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions(4151milliontonnesCO2 equivalent(MtCO2eq.)in2006)intheEU15areduetothesupplyanduseofenergy (includingfuelconsumptionfromtransport)(Fig.1).CO2emissionsfrompublicelectricityand heatproductionrepresentaquarterofallEU15GHGemissions,whileCO2emissionsfrom roadtransportationrepresentafifth(Fig.2). AgricultureisthemainCH4andN2Oemitterandaccountsfor9%oftotalGHGemissionsin 2006(Figure1andFigure2). Between1990and2006,theGHGemissionsthatincreasedmostinabsolutevaluewereCO2 emissionsfromroadtransportation,CO2emissionsfromelectricityandheatproductionand HFCsemissionsfromrefrigerationandairconditioningequipment(Figure3). Between1990and2006,theGHGemissionsthatdecreasedmostinabsolutevaluewereCH4 emissionsfromlandfilling,CO2emissionsfromfuelcombustioninmanufacturingindustries andconstructionandCO2emissionsfromthemanufactureofsolidfuels(e.g.charcoal)(Fig.3).
Figure 1 Sector shares of total greenhouse gases in 1990 and 2006 in the EU-15
1990
Industrial processes Waste 9% 4% Solvent use and other 0%
2006
Industrial processes 8% Agriculture 9%
Solvent use and other Waste 0% 3%
Agriculture 10%
Transport 16%
Energy w ithout transport 61%
Transport 21%
Energy w ithout transport 59%
Energy without transport Agriculture Waste

Source: EEA, 2008a.
Transport Industrial processes Solvent use and other
Figure 2
Sector shares of total CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions in 2006

N 2 O 2006
Agriculture Waste 0% 0%
C O 2 2006
Industrial processes 6%
C H 4 2006
Energy use excluding transport 16%
Transport 1% Indust rial processes 0%
Waste 4%
Energy use excluding transport 9%
Transport 6% Indust rial processes 12%
Transport 25% Energy use excluding transport 69%
Waste 30%
Agriculture 55%
Agricult ure 69%
Source: EEA, 2008a
Figure 3
Changes in emissions from key sources in the EU-15 from 1990 to 2006
-90% -60% -30% 0% 30% P ercentage change 60% 90% 1 20% 1 50% 1 80% 21 0% 240% M anaged Waste dispo sal o n Land (CH4 fro m 6A 1) Other (CO2 fro m 1 2f ) A M anufacture o f So lid fuels and Other Energy Industries (CO2 fro m 1 1 A c) Iro n and Steel (CO2 fro m 1 2a) A
Direct So il Emissio ns (N2O fro m 4D1 )
Indirect Emissio n (N2O fro m 4D3)
Cattle (CH4 fro m 4A 1) A griculture/Fo restry/Fisheries (CO2 fro m 1 4c) A Iro n and Steel P ro ductio n (CO2 fro m 2C1 ) Residential (CO2 fro m1 4b ) A Co mmercial/Institutio nal (CO2 fro m 1 4a ) A Cement P ro ductio n (CO2 fro m 2A 1 )
P etro leum refining (CO2 fro m 1 1 A b) Refrigeratio n and A ir Co nditio ning Equipment (HFC fro m 2F1) 1 1 P ublic Electricity and Heat A a P ro ductio n (CO2 fro m 1 1 A a) Ro ad Transpo rtatio n (CO2 fro m 1 3b) A -90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90 1 20 1 50 A bso lute change in millio n to nnes o f CO2 equivalents 1 80 21 0 240
A bso lute Change
Relative Change

Note: The most important key sources of greenhouse gas emissions listed here account for 85 % of total emissions in 2006, excluding emissions and removals from LULUCF. Source: EEA, 2008a
Figure 4
Contribution of key sources to total GHG emissions in 1990 and 2006

Public Electricity and Heat Production (CO2 from 1A1a) Road Transportation (CO2 from 1A3b) Residential (CO2 from 1A4b) 25% Other (CO2 from 1A2f) Commercial/Institutional (CO2 from 1A4a) Petroleum refining (CO2 from 1A1b) Cattle (CH4 from 4A1) 7% 8% 10% Sum of remaining key sources (presented in Figure 3) 15% 10% 19% Direct Soil Emissions (N2O from 4D1) Iron and Steel (CO2 from 1A2a)
Share 1990
Share 2006
13% 22% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4%
11% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4%

Source: EEA, 2008a
A 1.2
Energy supply (energy industries)
Definition(IPCCsector1A1):emissionsfromfuelscombustedbythefuelextractionorenergyproducing industries. Key EU policies and measures Trends

Total GHG emission from 1A1 EU-15 EU-27 Share in 1990 total GHG 27.4 % 30.2 % Share in 2006 total GHG 29.0 % 30.9 % Change 1990 2006 3.7 % 5.5 % Change 2000 2006 7.4 % 6.1 %
DirectiveontheEUemissiontradingscheme(ETS)(2003) Directiveonelectricityproductionfromrenewableenergysources(2001) CogenerationDirective(2004) Directiveonenergytaxation(2003) Directiveontheenergyperformanceofbuildings(2002).
Between1990and2006,GHGemissionsfromenergyindustriesincreasedby4%intheEU15. Theyincreasedby7%between2000and2006intheEU15.
Projections targeting energy supply and use Belgium,Denmark,Germany,SwedenandtheUnitedKingdomaretheEU15MemberStates thatprojectthatwiththeexistingmeasuresinplace,2010emissionsfromenergysupplyand usewillbelowerthanin1990.TheotherEU15MemberStatesprojectincreasingemissions comparedto1990.Austriaprojectbeingbelow1990levelswiththeimplementationof additionaldomesticmeasures. ExceptSloveniaallEU12MemberStatesprojectdecreasesinGHGemissionsfromenergy supplyanduseby2010comparedto1990emissions,duetothereductionsthattookplacein the1990s.
Inthefollowingpoliciesandmeasuresconcerningenergyindustriesandenergyuseinresidential andservicesbuildingsaredescribed,asastrictdisaggregationofenergyrelevantpoliciesand measurestoallsubsectorsisnotfeasible. Projection savings from policies and measures targeting energy supply and use Thegreatestemissionreductionsby2010inthewholeenergysector(energysupplyanduse, includingtransport),areprojectedtobeprovidedbypoliciesandmeasurestargetingenergy industries.Thesepoliciesandmeasuresconcernrenewableenergy,combinedheatandpower (CHP),energytaxationandbuildingstandards. Inaddition,MemberStatesexpecttheEUEmissionTradingScheme(ETS)tocontributean emissionreductionofatleast123MtCO2intheEU27by2010.
8
EmissionreductionpotentialsreportedbyMemberStatesforenergypolicieshavestayed relativelyconstantsince2006fortheEU15,withabroadlysimilarsplitbetweenexistingand plannedpolicies.
Figure5showsprojectedemissionsavingsfortheEU15intheenergysupplyandusesector,by subsector(excepttransport).Projectedsavingsfrompoliciesandmeasuresin2010areestimated bycomparisonwithahypotheticalreferencecaseinwhichnomeasureswereimplementedsince thestartingyearchosenbyMemberStatesfortheirwithoutmeasuresprojections(seeAnnex5.3 forfurtherdescriptionofthismethod).DisaggregationbysubsectorwasnotavailablefortheEU 12. Ofallpolicesandmeasurestargetingthewholeenergysector(energysupply,energyuse, transport),thosetargetingtheenergysupplysector(energyindustries)areprojectedtoprovide greatestemissionreductionsby2010.Theyaccountfor64%ofallprojectedsavingsfromexisting measuresintheenergysector(excludingtransport)and54%ofallprojectedsavingsfrom additionalmeasures.CountriessuchasGermany,ItalyandtheUnitedKingdomreportsignificant projectedsavings,inparticularfrompoliciesandmeasurespromotingrenewableenergy. Policiesandmeasuresappliedtotheendusesectorsofmanufacturingindustriesandto commercial,residentialandagricultureenergyusealsomakesignificantcontributionstothe energysector.ThispossiblyreflectsthefactthatintheEUasawhole,therearemanyzeroorlow costoptionsforimprovementsinenergyefficiencythatcanmakeindustryandcommercemore competitive.Arangeofeconomicinstrumentsandvoluntaryagreementsareintendedtostimulate uptakeoftheseoptions.
Figure 5 EU-15 projected greenhouse gas emission savings in energy supply and use excluding transport in 2010
140
42.5
120
100 Carbon saving (MtCO2-eq.)
80
60
40
82.3 16.3
20
41.8 3.2 9.1
0 Energy not disaggregated -20 Existing policies and measures Energy industries Other inc. commercial, residential, agriculture
-3.7
Manufacturing industries and construction
Additional policies and measures
Note:
Projected savings from policies and measures in 2010 are estimated by comparison with a hypothetical reference case in which no measures were implemented since the starting year for the 'without measures' projection. See Annex 5.3 for further description of this method. Projected emission reductions from policies are calculated from projection scenarios: the effect of 'existing' policies and measures is obtained by subtracting the 'with existing measures' projection from the 'without measures' projection and the effect of 'additional' policies and measures by subtracting the 'with additional measures' projection from the 'with existing measures' projection.
Source: See Chapter 7 Sources of Information. Details on individual Member States can be found in Table 4 of the Country Profiles (Annex 8).
Inaddition,someMemberStatesreportedontheeffectsoftheEUEmissionTradingScheme. Accordingtotheirpreliminaryestimates,itwillcontributetoa123MtCO2emissionsreductionin theEU27in2010,largelythroughactionsintheenergyandindustrialsectors.Amore comprehensiveapproachconsistsinestimatingtheemissionreductionsbasedontheannual emissioncapsfortheperiod20082012comparedtoaverageverifiedemissionsfor2005/2006. Accordingtothatmethod,theEUETSwouldbringanoverallreductionof127MtCO2fortheEU 27.(SeeSection6.4ofthemainreport.) Figure6andFigure7display2010emissionprojectionsunderwithmeasures,withadditional measures(whereoneexists)andwithoutmeasuresscenarios,asreportedbyMemberStatesin theirlatestsubmissions.ThisillustratestheeffectofPAMsimplementedintheenergysector, includingEUwideandnationalactions.Whereawithoutmeasuresscenarioisnotreportedby MemberStates,ithasbeenestimatedthroughabottomupadditionofMemberState quantificationsoftheeffectofenergyrelatedPAMs.Themostsignificantemissionsavingsfrom existingPAMstargetingenergyindustriesareprojectedinGermany,PolandandSpain. AdditionalmeasuresareprojectedtodeliversignificantsavingsinGermany,FranceandItaly.
Figure 6 Projected effect of energy PAMs (excluding transport) to EU-15 projected emissions in 2010
Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
With additional measures scenario
With existing measures scenario MtCO2-eq.
Without measures scenario
Source: See Sources of Information (Chapter 7). Details on individual Member States can be found in Table 4 of the Country Profiles (Annex 8).
10
Figure 7
Projected contribution of energy PAMs (transport included) to EU-12 projected emissions in 2010
Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Comparison between 2007 and 2008 projections LimitedcomparisonscanbemadebetweenthefindingsfromreportssubmittedbyMemberStates in2008andthosesubmittedin2007,asthemethodologyforcalculatingpolicysavingshas changedbetweenthe2007and2008GreenhousegasemissiontrendsandprojectionsinEuropereports, fromamixoftopdownandbottomuptosolelytopdown(1).Thefollowingpointsprovidea comparisonofprojectedsavings(emissionreductions)byenergysubsectorandbywith measuresandwithadditionalmeasuresscenariosin2007and2008: FortheEU15,combinedprojectedsavingsfromwithmeasuresandwithadditional measuresinthemanufacturingindustriesandconstruction,otherincludingcommercial, residential,agricultureandenergyindustriessubsectorshavedecreasedby42Mt,79Mtand 116Mtrespectivelyin2008comparedto2007,whileprojectedsavingswhichwerenot attributedtooneofthesubsectorshaveincreasedby53Mt. FortheEU15,reportedemissionreductionpotentialsfor2010fromenergypolicieshave decreasedby327Mtforexistingmeasuresandby23Mtforadditionalmeasures.
(1)
The top-down method involves calculating the difference between total projections in each scenario ('without measures' minus 'with existing measures', and 'with existing measures' minus 'with additional measures'), while bottom-up involves adding together the reported effect (emission reductions) of individual measures.
11
Emissionssavingsfromadditionalpoliciescouldbemorecomprehensivelydisaggregatedby energysubsectorin2008anditcanbededucedthattherehasbeenlittlechangeinthesplit comparedto2007. ForthewholeEU,emissionreductionpotentialsfor2010fromenergypolicieshavedecreased by340Mt.
12
A 1.2.1 CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production Definition(IPCCsector1A1a):emissionsfrompublicelectricitygeneration,publiccombinedheatand powergeneration,andpublicheatplants.Publicutilitiesaredefinedasthoseundertakingswhoseprimary activityistosupplythepublic.Theymaybeinpublicorprivateownership.Thiscategoryincludes emissionsfromownonsiteuseoffuelbutnotemissionsfromautoproducers(undertakingswhichgenerate electricity/heatwhollyorpartlyfortheirownuse,asanactivitywhichsupportstheirprimaryactivity). In2006,CO2emissionsfrompublicelectricityandheatproductionintheEU15were7% higherthanin1990. AcontinuousdecouplingbetweenCO2emissionsandelectricityandheatproductionhasbeen observedsince1990.Itismainlyduetofuelswitching(coaltogas)andefficiency improvements.However,therehavebeensignsoffurtherdecouplingofemissionsfrom productionsince2003,asemissionshavebeenrelativelystabledespiteincreasingelectricity productionandconsumption. Electricityconsumptionandproductionareprojectedtokeepstronglyincreasing.
CO2 emission from 1A1a EU-15 EU-27 Share in 1990 total GHG 22.4 % 26.0 % Share in 2006 total GHG 24.5 % 26.8 % Change 19902006 7.3 % 4.8 % Change 20002006 8.8 % 7.1 %
Between1990and2006,electricityproductionincreasedintheEU15by41%(Figure8)andthe amountoffuelcombustedincreasedby23%(Figure9),whilerelatedemissionsincreasedbyonly 7%.Thesetrendsindicatetheoccurrenceofefficiencyimprovementsinelectricitygeneration(less fuelneededforthesameelectricityoutput)andfuelswitching(lessCO2emissionsforthesame amountoffuelcombusted). Afteranincreaseinemissionsbetween1999and2003duetohigherelectricityproductionfrom coalpowerplants(EEA,2006a),emissionshaveremainedstablesince2003,mainlyduetomarked improvementsinfuelefficiency.Theemissionreductionsduetotheshareofnuclearand renewableenergyareofminorimportance.Theshareofelectricityproductioninnuclearpower plantsintotalEU15electricityproductionevendecreasedbetween1990and2006from33.4%to 31.9%.IntheEU15,thestronggrowthofelectricitygenerationfrombiomass,naturalgasfired powerstationsandwindturbines(401%,346%,>10000%,respectively,between1990and2006) hasresultedinminoremissionreductionssofar,asbiomassandwindturbinesonlyhavea combinedshareof5%oftotalelectricitygenerationin2006.Furthermore,electricitygeneration fromhydropowerdecreasedby17%between2001and2006. ElectricityproductionandconsumptionarenowstronglyincreasingwhiletheresultingCO2 emissionsremainrelativelystable(Figure8).Itisprojectedthatelectricityconsumptionand productionwillcontinuetoincrease(Figure8).
13
Figure 8
160 150 Index 100 = 1990 level 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1990 1992
CO2 emissions from public electricity and heat production compared with electricity production and final electricity consumption, EU-15 and EU-27
160
152 148
150 Index 100 = 1990 level 140 133 130 120 110 100 95 90 80 131
141 137
145 143
107
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
CO2 emissions (past) Electricity consumption (past) Electricity consumption (projected)
Electricity production (past) Electricity production (projected)
CO2 emissions (past) Electricity consumption (past) Electricity consumption (projected)
Electricity production (past) Electricity production (projected)
Source: EEA, 2008a; Eurostat; PRIMES.
Figure 9
160 150
Comparison of CO2 emission and fuel combustion, and change of share of fuel use between 1990 and 2006 for the EU-15
Biomass 2% Gaseous 10% 19 9 0 Ot her 1% Liquid 16%
140 130
123
Index 1990 = 100
120 110 107 100
Solid 71%
2006 Other 3% Liquid 7%
90 87 80
Biomass 5%
70 60 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Gaseous 32% Solid 53% CO2 emissions Fuel combustion specific CO2 emission per fuel combust ed
Source: EEA, 2008a;
IneightEU12andfourEU15MemberStates,CO2emissionsdecreasedbetween1990and2006.In eightofthesetwelveMemberStates,electricityproductionincreasedinthesametime(Figure10). SwedenhasaremarkablylowincreaseinCO2emissionsdespiteaveryhighincreaseinelectricity production.Thisispartlyduetoaremarkableincreaseintheshareofbiomasscombustionin publicelectricityandheatproductionbetween1990and2006(from13%to51%). Between1990and2006CO2emissionsweredecoupledfromfuelcombustioninthirteenEU15and fourEU12MemberStates(Figure11).Emissionsevendecreasedinsomecaseswhilefuel combustionincreased.InLuxembourg,acompleteshiftfromcoaltogashasoccurred.
14
Figure 10 Change of electricity consumption and production (in thermal power plants) and CO2 emissions from public electricity and heat production between 1990 and 2006
-100% Lithuania Latvia Estonia Romania Slovakia Bulgaria Poland Hungary UK EU-27 Belgium France Germany Czech Republic Sw eden Slovenia EU-15 Denmark Austria Luxembourg Italy Netherlands Greece Ireland Portugal Malta Spain Finland Cyprus CO2 emissions Electricity consumption Electricity production -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
Source: EEA, 2008a; Eurostat.
Figure 11 Change of amount of fuel combustion and CO2 emissions from public electricity and heat production between 1990 and 2006 in the EU-15
Lithuania Latvia Estonia Romania Slovakia Bulgaria Poland Hungary UK EU-27 Belgium France Germany Czech Republic Sw eden Slovenia EU15 Denmark Austria Luxembourg Italy Netherlands Greece Ireland Portugal Malta Spain Finland Cyprus -100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
302%
150%
CO2 emissions
Fuel combustion
Source: EEA, 2008a.
15
Emissions intensity from the energy transformation sector (Priority Indicator N7 and projected Indicator N7) Tomonitortheprogressofpoliciesandmeasuresintheenergytransformationsector,specificCO2 emissionsofpublicandautoproducerpowerplantsarereportedbyMemberStates.Thisindicator istheratiobetweenCO2emissionsfrompublicandautoproducerthermalpowerstations(2),and theoutput(3)bythesestations.Significantdecouplingtookplacebetween1994and1997and between2003and2006(Figure12). NineofthetwelveMemberStatesthatreportedboth,thechangeinCO2emissionsandthechange inenergyoutputbetween1990and2006showedadecouplingofthesetwoparameters(Figure13). ThelowestCO2intensitywasobservedinSweden(Figure13).
Figure 12 CO2 emissions from public and autoproducer (total and thermal) power stations compared with all products-output for the EU-15
150 140 130
Index 1990 = 100
SpecificCO2emissionsofpublicandautoproducerpowerplantshavebeendecreasingsince 1990.
139
120 110 100 90 80 70 1990 79 107
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
CO2 emissio ns Output by public and auto pro ducer thermal po wer statio ns specific CO2 emissio ns o f public and auto pro ducer po wer plants, t CO2 / TJ o utput
Source: EEA, 2008a; Eurostat.
(2) CO2 emissions from all fossil fuel combustion for gross electricity and heat production by public and autoproducer thermal power and combined heat and power plants. Emissions from heat only plants are not included. (3) Gross electricity produced and any heat sold to third parties (combined heat and power plants CHP). Output from heat only plants is not included.
16
Figure 13 Specific CO2 emissions of public and autoproducer power plants, t CO2/TJ (change 19902006; absolute intensity) (Priority Indicator N7)
EU-15 EU-27 Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Greece Hungary Lithuania Malta Poland Romania Slovenia Sw eden Cyprus Spain Finland Portugal Ireland Netherlands Austria Italy Luxembourg France UK Germany Latvia Slovakia Estonia -100% -50% 0% CO2 emissions CO2 intensity t/TJ (2006) EU-15 EU-27 Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Greece Hungary Lithuania Malta Poland Romania Slovenia Sw eden Cyprus Spain Finland Portugal Ireland Netherlands Austria Italy Luxembourg France UK Germany Latvia Slovakia Estonia 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
634%
50% 100% 150% change in all product output
200%
Note:
Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries and not all countries reported the whole time series. Source: EEA, 2008a; Member States submissions.
Theintensityvaluesfor2006areavailablefor22MemberStates(Figure13).Lowintensities observedinnorthernEuropemaybeexplainedby: highsharesofbiomasscombustioninpublicelectricityandheatproduction(e.g. Sweden,Denmark,andFinland), highsharesofCHP(Denmark,Finland,Latvia), highsharesofgaseousfuels(e.g.Latvia,Lithuania,theUnitedKingdom).
Ofthe14MemberStatesthatprovidedprojectionsforCO2emissionsfrompublicand autoproducerthermalpowerstations,onlyfour(Belgium,Germany,Spain,theUnitedKingdom) projectdecreasingemissionsbetween2005and2010(Figure14).
17
Figure 14 Projected Change in CO2 emissions from public and autoproducer thermal power stations and all products output between 2005 and 2010 (Projected Indicator N7)
EU-27 EU-15 Cyprus Austria Bulgaria Estonia France Greece Hungary Italy Luxembourg Latvia Malta Portugal Romania Lithuania Finland Slovakia Denmark Sw eden Poland Slovenia Ireland Netherlands Czech Republic Belgium UK Germany Spain -50%
Note:
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% change CO2 emissions (2005-2010) change output (2005-2010)
Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Source: Member States' submissions.
18
Projected savings from key policies and measures targeting energy industries Savingsfromrenewableenergypoliciesandmeasuresplayamajorrole,amountingfor62MtCO2 eq.(50Mtfromexistingmeasuresand12Mtfromplannedadditionalmeasures).TheCHP Directive(15Mt)andtheenergytaxationDirective(17Mt)arealsoexpectedtocontribute significantlytoreductionsofEU27emissionsin2010,asillustratedinFigure15below.More informationonpoliciesrelatedtorenewableenergyandCHPisprovidedinthenextsection.The directiveonenergyenduseefficiencyandenergyservicesisexpectedtocreate1%annualsavings intheenergyindustriessectorbutisquantifiedbyMemberStatestoreduceEU27emissionsby justover3Mtsofar.ThedirectiverequiresMemberStatestodrawupnationalactionplansto achieve1%yearlyenergysavingsintheretail,supplyanddistributionofelectricity,naturalgas, urbanheating,andotherenergyproductsincludingtransportfuels.
Figure 15 EU-27 projected greenhouse gas emission savings from key CCPMs in the energy supply sector in 2010
70
ThemainGHGemissionreductionsinEU27energyindustriesareprojectedtobederived frompoliciesandmeasurespromotingrenewableenergy. Significantadditionalreductionsarealsoexpectedfrompoliciesandmeasuresoncombined heatandpower(cogeneration)andenergytaxation.
60
50 Carbon savings MtCO2-eq.
40
30
61.8
20
10
17.5
15.0 3.7 0.9 0.2
RES-E Directive
Energy taxation Directive
Co-generation Directive
Internal electricity Large Combustion Internal market in market Directive Plant Directive natural gas
Source: Database on Policies and Measures in Europe (www.oeko.de/service/pam/sector.php) as of 17 July 2008.
19
A 1.2.2 CO2 emissions from petroleum refining Definition(IPCCsector1A1b):emissionsfromallcombustionactivitiessupportingtherefiningof petroleumproducts.Thiscategorydoesnotincludeevaporativeemissions.

CO2 emission from 1A1b EU-15 EU-27 Share in 1990 total GHG 2.5 % 2.1 % Share in 2006 total GHG 2.9 % 2.5 % Change 1990 2006 11.8 % 13.9 % Change 2000 2006 0.6 % 0.5 %
Between1990and2006,CO2emissionsfrompetroleumrefiningincreasedsignificantly,closely followingthetrendoffuelcombustioninthissector(Fig.16). Nodecouplingbetweenemissionsandactivityhasoccurredsincethefuelmix,stilllargely dominatedbyliquidfuels,didnotchangesignificantly(Fig.16) ExceptinBulgaria,CzechRepublic,Hungary,theNetherlands,SloveniaandtheUnited Kingdom,CO2emissionsincreasedinallEUMemberStates.
Between2005and2006,fuelcombustionandCO2emissionsfrompetroleumrefiningdecreased sharply.Thisdecreaseseemstobemainlycausedbyadeclineintheoverallconsumptionofoil productsandadeclineinlocalproductioncoupledwithincreasingimportsofoilproducts.

Figure 16 Trend of EU-15 CO2 and EU-27 CO2 emissions from petroleum refining and gross value and share of fuels in 1990 and 2006 for the EU-15
130
1 990
120
2006 4% 0% 0% 1 %
8%
0% 0%
Index 1990 = 100
116 114 110 113 112
3%
100
91 %
90
93% Liquid Fuels So lid Fuels B io mass
80 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Gaseo us Fuels Other Fuels
CO2 emissio ns EU-1 5 CO2 emissio ns EU-27
Fuel Co mbustio n EU-1 5 Fuel Co mbustio n EU-27
Source: EEA, 2008a.
20
Figure 17 Change of CO2 emissions and fuel combustion from petroleum refining between 1990 and 2006 for EU-27 Member States
Cyprus Romania Malta Latvia Luxembourg Poland Ireland Estonia Italy Greece Portugal Finland Sw eden Spain Austria Slovakia EU-27 EU15 Denmark Belgium France Lithuania Germany Netherlands Hungary UK Czech Republic Bulgaria Slovenia -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
CO2 emissions
Fuel combustion
Note:
Romania reports emissions under 'Public electricity and heat production'. The following Member States reported that CO2 emissions from petroleum refining were not occurring: Latvia, Luxembourg and Malta (1990 and 2006) and Cyprus (2006). Source: EEA, 2008a.
21
A 1.2.3 CO2 emissions from the manufacture of solid fuels and other energy industries Definition(IPCCsector1A1c):combustionemissionsfromfueluseduringthemanufactureofsecondary andtertiaryproductsfromsolidfuelsincludingproductionofcharcoal.Thiscategoryincludesemissions fromownonsitefueluse. Between1990and2006,CO2emissionsfromthemanufactureofsolidfuelsandotherenergy industriesweresignificantlyreduced,followingthetrendinfuelcombustioninthissector (Figure18). ThedecreasingtrendinCO2emissionsstoppedin2000.Emissionshavebeenstablesince,ata level40%below1990levels. FuelswitchingfromsolidtogaseousfuelsledtofurtherreductioninCO2emissions(Figure 18). TenEU27MemberStatesshowadecreasebetween1990and2006,butemissionsincreasedby morethan150%inDenmarkandtheSlovakRepublic(Figure19).
CO2 emission from 1A1c EU-15 EU-27
Share in 1990 total GHG 2.3 % 1.9 %
Change 1990 2006 41.2 % 37.2 %
Change 2000 2006 0.8 % 2.9 %
Figure 18 Trend of EU-15 CO2 and EU-27 CO2 emissions from manufacture of solid fuels and other energy industries and share of fuels in 1990 and 2006 for the EU-15
10 1 1 00
Index 1990 = 100
19 9 0 4% 1 % 1 7% 4%
2006
2% 6% 3%
35% 54%
90 80 70 60 59 50 1 990 1 992 1 994 1 996 1 998 EU-1 CO2 emissio ns 5 EU-27 CO2 emissio ns 2000 2002 2004 Fuel Co mbustio n EU-1 5 Fuel Co mbustio n EU-27 2006 71 67 63
74% Liquid Fuels Gaseo us Fuels Other Fuels So lid Fuels B io mass
Source: EEA, 2008a.
Between1993and1994combustionofsolidfuelsincreasedonlyslightlywhiletheincreasein combustionofgaseousandliquidfuelswasmorepronouncedwhichledtoanincreaseintotalfuel combustionintheEU27(Figure18).Inthefollowingyears,combustionofsolidandliquidfuels decreasedmorethancombustionofgaseousfuelsincreasedinboththeEU15andEU27.Thisled toadecreasingtrendinfuelcombustion(Figure18).

Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2008 Annexes 1-5 22
Figure 19 Change of CO2 emissions and fuel combustion from manufacture of solid fuels between 1990 and 2006 for EU-27 Member States
Romania Malta Hungary Estonia Cyprus Luxembour Slovakia Denmark Netherlands UK Bulgaria Ireland Italy Finland Austria Sw eden Poland Spain Lithuania Greece France EU-27 EU15 Czech Latvia Germany Belgium Slovenia Portugal -110% -60% -10% 40% 90%
6448% 13792%
140%
190%
CO2 emissions
Note:
Fuel combustion
Romania reports emissions under 'Public electricity and heat production'; Hungary includes emissions under 'Chemical industry'. The following Member States reported that CO2 emissions from manufacture of solid fuels and other energy industries were not occurring: Cyprus, Estonia, Luxembourg and Malta (1990 and 2006) and Portugal (2006)
Source: EEA, 2008a.
23
A 1.3
Energy use (excluding transport)
A 1.3.1 CO2 emissions from energy use in manufacturing industries and construction Definition(IPCCsector1A2):emissionsfromcombustionoffuelsinindustryincludingcombustionfor thegenerationofelectricityandheat.Thiscategorydoesnotincludeemissionsfromtheenergyusedfor transportbyindustry,butincludeemissionsarisingfromoffroadandothermobilemachineryinindustry. Key EU policies and measures Trends Between1990and2006,GHGemissionsfromenergyuseinmanufacturingindustries decreasedby12%.Theydecreasedby2%between2000and2006. Energyintensity(4)inindustrydecreasedbyapproximately1.8%peryearovertheperiod 19902004(EEA,2006b).Thiswasduetostructuralchangesinfavourofhighervalueadded products,changesinsomeindustriestolessenergyintensiveprocesses,improvementsinthe energyefficiencyofprocessesandimportsubstitution. CO2emissionsincreasedbetween1990and2006inonlysixEU27MemberStates(Figure20). DataforgrossvalueaddedinmanufacturingindustrieswereprovidedbyonlysixEU27 MemberStates.AllthesedatashowthatCO2emissionsweredecoupledfromgrossvalue added. CogenerationDirective(2004)
CO2 emission from 1A2 EU-15 EU-27
Change 1990 2006 12.2 % 18.9 %
Change 2000 2006 2.2 % 3.6 %
Policies and measures targeting energy use in manufacturing industries

Specificclimatepoliciesandmeasurescontributedonlypartiallytothedecreaseinenergy intensity. ThepromotionofCHPinindustryisexpectedtofurtherreduceenergyintensity.
PastreductionsinCO2emissionsfrommanufacturingindustrieswereduetoadecreaseinenergy intensity(ratioofenergyusetovalueadded)ofindustrybyanaverageof1.8%peryearoverthe period19902004(EEA,2006b).Thiswasduetostructuralchangesinfavourofhighervalue addedproducts,changesinsomeindustriestolessenergyintensiveprocesses,improvementsin theenergyefficiencyofprocessesandimportsubstitution.Onlypartofthesedevelopmentswas duetospecificpoliciesandmeasuresaimedatreducinggreenhousegasemissions.The

(4) Energy intensity: ratio of energy use to value added.
24
improvementinenergyintensityisprojectedtocontinueortobeenhanced,withthehelpof existingandadditionalpoliciesandmeasures.ThepromotionofCHPinindustryisalsoexpected toreduceenergyintensity.

Figure 20 Change of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption in industry and gross values added of industry between 19902006 and 20052010 (Projected Indicator N4)
Spain Ireland Austria Portugal Denmark Cyprus Sw eden Italy Greece France EU15 Finland Netherlands Belgium UK Slovenia EU-27 Poland Malta Germany Romania Czech Hungary Slovakia Bulgaria Latvia Luxembourg Estonia Lithuania -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% EU-15 EU-27 Bulgaria Cyprus Estonia France Greece Hungary Luxembourg Malta Poland Portugal Romania Lithuania Slovakia Sw eden Spain Ireland Latvia Slovenia Austria Netherlands Denmark Finland Italy UK Czech Republic Belgium Germany -50% 0% 50% 100%
change CO2 emissions (1990-2006)
change GVA (1990-2006)
change GVA (2005-2010)
Note:
Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Source: EEA, 2008a, Eurostat, Member States' submissions
25
A 1.3.2 CO2 emission from energy use and processes for iron and steel production Definition(IPCCsector1A2a):emissionsfromcombustionoffuelsintheironandsteelindustry includingcombustionforthegenerationofelectricityandheat. Definition(IPCCsector2C1):byproductorfugitivegreenhousegasemissionsfromindustrialprocessing ofironandsteelproducts CO2emissionsfromironandsteelproductionaresplitbetween: processrelatedemissions,accountedforinthecategorySector2Industry, combustionrelatedemissions,accountedforinthecategorySector1Energy. EU15CO2emissionsfromironandsteelproductiondecreasedby13%between1990and2006 andby2%between2000and2006. Thiswasmainlyduetheincreasingshareofelectricprocessinginsteelproduction,whilethe shareofintegratedsteelworkshasbeendecreasing. Emissionsandgrossvalueaddedhavebeendecouplingsincethelate1990s.
Astheboundarybetweenenergyandprocessrelatedemissionsisnotuniformlyinterpretedin individualMemberStates,thischapterdealswithbothcombustion(1A2a)andprocess(2C1) relatedemissions. In2006,energyrelatedCO2emissionsandprocessrelatedCO2emissionscontributeeach2%to totalEU15GHGemissions.Emissionsdependpartlyonthemethodofprocessing(integrated steelworksorelectricprocessing),wherebyelectricprocessingcauseslessdirectemissionsinthe specificcategory.Emissionsalsodependonthefuelsusedforcombustion.In199073.5%ofthe fuelsusedforcombustioninironandsteelproductionweresolidfuels.In2006theshareofsolid fuelsdecreased66.95%.Inthesametimetheshareofgaseousfuelsincreased(18.4%in1990and 26.3%in2006).Thisswitchfromsolidtogaseousfuelscontributestothereductionofenergy relatedCO2emissionsinironandsteelproduction. Since2001,CO2emissionsfromironandsteelhavebeenrelativelystablewhile: steelproductionfromelectricprocessinghasbeensteadilyincreasing; steelproductionfromintegratedsteelworkshasbeenstable.
26
CO2 emissions 2C1 (process) EU-15 EU-27 1A2a (combustion) EU-15 EU-27 Total iron and steel industry EU-15 EU-27 4.5 % 4.6 % 3.9 % 4.1 % 13.3 % 17.3 % 2.2 % 0.2 % 2.8 % 2.7 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 16.6 % 18.9 % 5.0 % 4.4 % 1.7 % 1.9 % 1.6 % 1.7 % 8.1 % 15.1 % 2.2 % 6.1 % Share in 1990 total GHG Share in 2006 total GHG Change 1990 2006 Change 2000 2006
ThisindicatesadecouplingbetweensteelproductionfromelectricprocessingandrelatedCO2 emissions,duetoefficiencyimprovementsinthesteelproductionprocessandinelectricity generationbythesteelindustry.

Figure 21 Trend of CO2 emissions, steel production and gross value added for EU-15 Member States and share of fuels in 1990 and 2006
1 990
190 170 150 130 110 90 94 87

2006
176 165
30%
127
70%
91
41 % 59%
70 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Steel pro ductio n (past ) - integrated steelwo rks Steel pro ductio n (past) - electric pro cessing CO2 fro m iro n and steel Steel pro ductio n (pro jected) - integrated steelwo rks Gro ss Value added (past) Steel pro ductio n (pro jected) - electric pro cessing
integrated steelwo rks electric pro cessing
Source: EEA, 2008a, PRIMES, Eurostat
TheemissiontrendintheEU27issimilartotheEU15andshowsdecreasingCO2emissionswhile grossvalueaddedandelectricprocessingofsteelisincreasing.
27
Figure 22 Trend of CO2 emissions, steel production and gross value added EU-27 Member States
190 170 150 130 110 90 89 86 83 70 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Steel pro ductio n (past) - integrated steelwo rks Steel pro ductio n (past) - electric pro cessing CO2 fro m iro n and steel Steel pro ductio n (pro jected) - integrated steelwo rks Gro ss Value added (past) Steel pro ductio n (pro jected) - electric pro cessing
167 150 131
Source: EEA, 2008a, PRIMES, Eurostat
28
Total CO2 intensity and specific CO2 emissions in the iron and steel industry (additional priority indicators 2 and 5) SeventeenMemberStatesreportedbothnominatoranddenominatorin2006forthecalculationof CO2intensityinthesteelindustry(5)(Figure23).In13countries,theresultingintensityisbelow 5000tCO2perEURmillionofgrossvalueadded(Figure23).Forsomecountries(e.g.Denmark andSlovenia),thedenominatormayincludemoreactivitiesthanforothercountries,becauseno disaggregatedinformationisavailable.
Figure 23 CO2 intensity - iron and steel industry per gross value added, t/EUR million (change 19902006; absolute intensity) (Additional Priority Indicator N2)
Cyprus EU-15 EU-27 Lithuania Malta Finland Austria Denmark Sw eden Spain Germany Netherlands Czech Republic France Slovakia Bulgaria Estonia UK Romania Italy Latvia Belgium Greece Poland Slovenia Hungary Portugal Luxembourg Ireland -150% -100% -50% 0% change in CO2 emissions (1990-2006) 50% 100% 150% 200% change in GVA (1990-2006) CO2 Intensity t/Mio (2006) Cyprus EU-15 EU-27 Lithuania Malta Finland Austria Denmark Sw eden Spain Germany Netherlands Czech Republic France Slovakia Bulgaria Estonia UK Romania Italy Latvia Belgium Greece Poland Slovenia Hungary Portugal Luxembourg Ireland 0 5000 10000 15000 20000
In21ofthe24MemberStatesforwhichdataareavailable,CO2emissionsintheironandsteel industrydecreasedbetween1990and2006. ApproximatelyhalfoftheMemberStatesreportedsufficientdataallowingindicators assessment.
Note:
Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Cyprus, Lithuania and Malta do not produce iron and steel. Source: Member States' submissions
ThereportingofMemberStatesregardingCO2emissionsfromtheironandsteelindustryperunit ofoxygensteelproduced(additionalpriorityindicatorN5)issubstantiallyincompletetoallow meaningfulEUwidecomparison.ForSloveniathevalueforgrossvalueaddedincludesnon ferrousmetalindustry.ThismightcausethelowCO2intensities(Fig.23).Austria,Finland, SlovakiaandSloveniahadastrongincreaseinsteelproductionbetween1990and2006(Figure24).

(5) Ratio of total CO2 emissions by gross value added in the iron and steel industry.
29
InLuxembourgthevalueforproductionofoxygensteelalsoincludessinter,pigironandelectric arcfurnaceproduction.ThisexplainsthelowCO2intensityinLuxembourg(Fig.24).
Figure 24 CO2 intensity - iron and steel industry per production of oxygen steel, t/t (change 19902006; absolute intensity) (Additional Priority Indicator N5)
CO2 Intensity t/t (2006) Cyprus EU-15 EU-27 Lithuania Malta Finland Austria Denmark Sw eden Spain Germany Netherlands Czech Republic France Slovakia Bulgaria Estonia UK Romania Italy Latvia Belgium Greece Poland Slovenia Hungary Portugal Luxembourg Ireland -150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% Cyprus EU-15 EU-27 Lithuania Malta Finland Austria Denmark Sw eden Spain Germany Netherlands Czech Republic France Slovakia Bulgaria Estonia UK Romania Italy Latvia Belgium Greece Poland Slovenia Hungary Portugal Luxembourg Ireland 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
change in CO2 emissions (1990-2006) change in production (1990-2006)
Note: Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. In Estonia (19902006) and Lithuania (20042006) production of oxygen steel is not occurring. In Bulgaria (2006), Latvia (19992006) and Spain (19902006) production of oxygen steel is confidential. Source: Member States' submissions
30
A 1.3.3 CO2 emissions from energy use in the chemical industry Definition(IPCCsector1A2c):emissionsfromcombustionoffuelsinthechemicalindustry(production ofammonia,nitricacid,adipicacid,carbides,etc.)includingcombustionforthegenerationofelectricityand heat. Between1990and2006,EU15CO2emissionsfromchemicalindustry(combustionand process)decreasedby2%,buthaveincreasedrecently(+3%between2000and2006). Whilegrossvalueaddedhasbeenconstantlyincreasingsince1990(exceptin2003),theamount offuelcombustedbythechemicalindustryandtherelatedCO2emissionshavedecreased duringthesameperiod(Figure25). Theemissiontrendiscloselylinkedtotheamountoffuelcombusted(Figure25),which indicatesthatoverallintheEU,thisindustryisreducingitsenergyintensity.
Share in 1990 total GHG CO2 emission from 1A2c (combustion) EU-15 EU-27 CO2 emissions from 2B (process) EU-15 EU-27 Total CO2 emissions from chemical industry EU-15 EU-27 2.3 % 2.3 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 1.7 % 1.5 %
Share in 2006 total GHG
Change 1990 2006
Change 2000 2006
1.6 % 1.7 %
8.2 % 4.2 %
1.9 % 10.1 %
0.8 % 0.8 %
12.7 % 2.6 %
3.6 % 3.3 %
2.3 % 2.5 %
2.3 % 3.7 %
2.5 % 7.9 %
TheCO2emissionsfromthechemicalindustrycontributed(combustionandprocess)with2%to thetotalEU15GHGemissions.Thissharewasthesamein2006and1990.
Figure 25 Trend of CO2 emissions, fuel combustion of the chemical industry and gross values added for EU-15 Member States
1 80 1 70 1 76 1 77 1 80 1 70
Index 1990 = 100
1 75 1 75
Index 1990 = 100
1 60 1 50 1 40 1 30 1 20 10 1 1 00 90 80 1 990 1 992 1 994 1 996 1 998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201 0 97 92
1 60 1 50 1 40 1 30 1 20 10 1 1 00 90 80 1 990 1 992 1 994 1 996 1 998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201 0 1 07 1 04
Fuel co mbustio n (past) Gro ss Value added (past)
CO2 emissio ns Gro ss Value added (pro jected)
Gro ss Value added (past) Fuel co mbustio n (past)
Source: EEA 2008a, PRIMES, Eurostat
31
Energy-related CO2 intensity of the chemical industry (additional priority indicator 3) AdditionalPriorityIndicatorN3expressestheratiobetweenCO2emissionsfromcombustionof fossilfuelsinmanufactureofchemicalsandchemicalproductsandthegrossvalueaddedinthis industrybranch.ItwasonlypossibleforsixcountriestoshowthechangeofCO2emissionsand grossvalueaddedbetween1990and2006(Fig.26).FranceistheonlyMemberStatetoreportthat grossvalueaddeddecreasedwhileCO2emissionsincreased.Bulgaria,CzechRepublic;Slovak RepublicandHungaryshowamuchhigherCO2intensitycomparedtoothercountries(Fig.26).
Figure 26 Energy related intensity - chemical industry, t/Mio EUR, (change 1990 2006; absolute intensity) (Additional Priority Indicator N3)
EnergyrelatedCO2intensityinthechemicalindustryshowslargedifferencesamongMember Statesforwhichdataareavailable.
CO2 Intensity t/ Mio (2006) Czech Republic EU-15 EU-27 Germany Luxembourg Malta Romania UK Spain Poland Austria Denmark Sw eden Portugal Belgium Ireland France Hungary Greece Slovenia Netherlands Finland Bulgaria Cyprus Italy Lithuania Slovakia Estonia Latvia change in -150% -100% (1990-2006) change in GVA (1990-2006) CO2 emissions -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% Czech Republic EU-15 EU-27 Germany Luxembourg Malta Romania UK Spain Poland Austria Denmark Sw eden Portugal Belgium Ireland France Hungary Greece Slovenia Netherlands Finland Bulgaria Cyprus Italy Lithuania Slovakia Estonia Latvia 0 5000 10000 15000

Note: Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. The Czech Republic (19902002), Romania and the United Kingdom include emissions under source category 1A2f 'other'. In Luxembourg and Malta (19902004) chemical industry is not occurring. Source: Member States' submissions
32
A 1.3.4 CO2 emissions from energy use in the pulp, paper and print industry Definition(IPCCsector1A2d):emissionsfromcombustionoffuelsinthepulp,paperandprintindustry includingcombustionforthegenerationofelectricityandheat.
CO2 emission from 1A2d EU-15 EU-27 Share in 1990 total GHG 0.6 % 0.5 % Share in 2006 total GHG 0.7 % 0.6 % Change 1990 2006 8.4 % 7.4 % Change 2000 2006 5.0 % 4.2 %
Between1990and2006,CO2emissionsfrompulp,paperandprintincreasedby8%,butthey havedecreasedremarkablyintheEU15since2003(5%between2000and2006). AshiftfromsolidandliquidfuelstogasandbiomassledtopartialdecouplingofCO2 emissionsfromfuelcombustioninthepulp,paperandprintindustry.
CO2emissionsfrompulp,paperandprintindustryaccountfor0.7%ofthetotalEU15emissions in2006.Althoughthefuelcombustionisincreasing(+32%intheEU15between1990and2006), CO2emissionsincreasedbyonly8%intheEU15and7%intheEU27(Fig.27).Thiswasmainly duetoashiftfromliquidandsolidfuelstogasandbiomass.

Figure 27 Trend of CO2 emissions, energy demand of the pulp, paper and print industry and gross values added for EU-15 (left) and EU-27 (right)
1 60 1 70 1 50
Index 1990 = 100 Index 1990 = 100
1 60 1 50 1 40 1 30 1 20 10 1 1 00 90 80 1 992 1 994 1 996 1 998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201 0 1 990 1 992 1 994 1 996 1 998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201 0 1 07 1 06 11 1 1 38
1 40 1 30 1 20 1 08 10 1 1 00 90 80 1 990 1 07 11 1 1 32
Fuel co mbustio n (past) Gro ss Value added (past)
Fuel co mbustio n (past) Gro ss Value added (pro jected)
CO2 emissio ns Gro ss Value added (past)
33
Energy-related CO2 intensity in the paper and printing industry and specific energy-related CO2 emissions of the paper industry (supplementary indicators 6 and 13) Twosupplementaryindicators(N6andN13)showCO2intensitiesforthepaperindustry. SupplementaryIndicatorN6comparesCO2emissionswithgrossvalueadded.Thechangeof grossvalueaddedbetween1990and2006canonlybeshownforsixcountries(Francereportsa changeof0%andthereforenobarisvisibleinthegraph)(Figure28).
Figure 28 Energy related intensity pulp, paper and print industry, t CO2/Mio EUR, (change 19902006; absolute intensity) (Supplementary Indicator N6)
Czech Republic Estonia EU-15 EU-27 Luxembourg Malta Romania UK Poland Germany Bulgaria Ireland Spain Italy Hungary Slovenia Portugal Belgium Austria France Sw eden Netherlands Greece Finland Denmark Slovakia Cyprus Latvia Lithuania -150% -50% 50% 150% 250% 350% CO2 Intensity kt/Mio (2006) Czech Republic Estonia EU-15 EU-27 Luxembourg Malta Romania UK Poland Germany Bulgaria Ireland Spain Italy Hungary Slovenia Portugal Belgium Austria France Sw eden Netherlands Greece Finland Denmark Slovakia Cyprus Latvia Lithuania 0 500 1000 1500
BulgariaandCyprusshowexceptionallylowenergyrelatedCO2intensityinthepaperand printingindustry.
change in CO2 emissions (1990-2006)
change in GVA (1990-2006)
Note: Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Romania and the United Kingdom include emissions under source category 1A2f 'other'. Germany includes only emissions from other fuels. Estonia (1990, 1991, 1996), Luxembourg (19902006) and Malta (19902004) report emissions as not occurring. Source: Member States' submissions
SupplementaryIndicatorN13showsthespecificenergyrelatedCO2emissionsofpaperindustry. Ofthetencountriesthatreportedboth,changeinCO2emissionsfrompulp,paperandprint industryandphysicaloutputofpaperin1990and2006fivecountriesreporteddecreasing emissionsandincreasingphysicaloutput(Figure29).
34
Figure 29 Specific energy related CO2 emissions of the paper industry, t/t, (change 19902006; absolute intensity) (Supplementary Indicator N13)
Czech Republic Estonia EU-15 EU-27 Luxembourg Malta Romania UK Poland Germany Bulgaria Ireland Spain Italy Hungary Slovenia Portugal Belgium Austria France Sw eden Netherlands Finland Denmark Slovakia Latvia Lithuania Cyprus Greece -150% -50% 50% 150% 250% 350% CO2 Intensity t/t (2006) Czech Republic Estonia EU-15 EU-27 Luxembourg Malta Romania UK Poland Germany Bulgaria Ireland Spain Italy Hungary Slovenia Portugal Belgium Austria France Sw eden Netherlands Finland Denmark Slovakia Latvia Lithuania Cyprus Greece 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
change in CO2 emissions
change in physical output
Note: Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Estonia (1990, 1991, 1996), Luxembourg (19902006) and Malta (19902004) report emissions as not occurring. The physical output of paper is confidential in Ireland and Luxembourg. Source: Member States' submission
35
A 1.3.5 CO2 emissions from energy use in the food-processing, beverages and tobacco industry Definition(IPCCsector1A2e):emissionsfromcombustionoffuelsinthefoodprocessing,beveragesand tobaccoindustryincludingcombustionforthegenerationofelectricityandheat.
CO2 emission from 1A2e EU-15 EU-27 Share in 1990 total GHG 0.8 % 0.8 % Share in 2006 total GHG 0.9 % 0.9 % Change 1990 2006 5.9 % 4.2 % Change 2000 2006 10.5 % 7.2 %
Between1990and2006,CO2emissionsincreasedby6%,buttheydecreasedby11%between 2000and2006. Adecouplingbetweenactivityinthefoodprocessing,beveragesandtobaccoindustryand relatedCO2emissionscanbeobservedintheEU15andtheEU27(Figure30).
CO2emissionsandfuelcombustionshowsimilartrends,between1990and2006bothintheEUf5 andintheEU27(Figure30).ItisprojectedthatthegrossvalueaddedwillincreaseintheEU15 andtheEU27until2010(Figure30).

Figure 30 CO2 emissions, energy demand and gross value added in the foodprocessing, beverages and tobacco industry in the EU-15 and EU-27
1 80 1 70
Index 1990 = 100 Index 1990 = 100
1 80 1 70 1 60 1 50 1 40 1 30 1 20 10 1 1 00 90 80 1 992 1 994 1 996 1 998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201 0 1 990 1 992 1 994 1 996 1 998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201 0 18 1 11 1 1 04 1 30
1 60 1 50 1 40 1 30 1 20 10 1 1 00 90 80 1 990 1 20 1 09 1 06 1 24
36
Energy-related CO2 intensity in the food, drink and tobacco industry (supplementary indicator 5) SupplementaryIndicatorN5showstheenergyrelatedCO2intensityofthefood,drinkand tobaccoindustrybycomparingCO2emissionswithgrossvalueadded.Between1990and2006, CO2emissionsdecreasedinmostMemberStates.MajorincreaseswereonlyreportedbyBulgaria, ItalyandSpain(Figure31).Thechangeofgrossvalueaddedbetween1990and2006canonlybe shownforsixcountries.Cyprusreportsanexceptionallyhighincreaseingrossvalueaddedinthe food,drinkandtobaccoindustry(Figure31).
Figure 31 Energy-related intensity food, drink and tobacco industry, t CO2/EUR million (Supplementary Indicator N5)
Czech Republic EU-15 EU-27 Luxembourg Malta Romania UK Bulgaria Spain Italy Poland France Ireland Portugal Austria Greece Slovenia Netherlands Denmark Belgium Sw eden Hungary Lithuania Slovakia Germany Latvia Cyprus Finland Estonia -100% -50% 0% change in CO2 emissions (1990-2006) CO2 Intensity t/Mio (2006) Czech Republic EU-15 EU-27 Luxembourg Malta Romania UK Bulgaria Spain Italy Poland France Ireland Portugal Austria Greece Slovenia Netherlands Denmark Belgium Sw eden Hungary Lithuania Slovakia Germany Latvia Cyprus Finland Estonia 0 500 1000 1500 2000
2163%
50% 100% 150% change in GVA (1990-2006)
Note: Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Romania and the United Kingdom include emissions under source category 1A2f 'other'. Luxembourg reports emissions as not occurring. The Czech Republic (19902002), Luxembourg (19902006) and Malta (19902004) report emissions as not occurring. Source: Member States' submission
37
A 1.3.6 CO2 emissions from energy use in other industries Definition(IPCCsector1A2f):emissionsfromcombustionoffuelsinallindustriesotherthaniron,steel, nonferrousmetals,chemicals,pulp,paper,print,foodprocessing,beverageandtobacco(presentedin categories1A2a,1A2b,1A2c,1A2dand1A2e)andotherthanagriculture,forestryandfisheries(presented incategory1A4cseenextsection). IntheEU15,CO2emissionsandfuelcombustionfromthissourcecategoryhavebeen relativelystablesince1998.Somedecouplingbetweenemissionsandcombustioncanbe observedsince2000.
CO2 emission from 1A2f EU-15 EU-27 Share in 1990 total GHG 8.4 % 8.7 % Share in 2006 total GHG 7.3 % 6.9 % Change 1990 2006 14.8 % 26.7 % Change 2000 2006 0.7 % 5.9 %
Somecountriesreportinthiscategoryalsoemissionsfromtheabovementionedindustrybranches whentheycannotallocatetheemissionstothesespecificbranches(e.g.UnitedKingdom, Romania).Forthisreason,comparisonsofemissionsbetweencountrieshavetobeundertaken withcareandconsiderationofnationalcircumstances. TheCO2emissionsofthissourcecategorycontributedin2006with7%tothetotalEU15GHG emissions.CO2emissionsdecreasedbetween1990and2006by15%.Thedecreaseinemissionsis partlyduetothefuelshift,fromsolidtogaseousfuels(Fig.32).Thedecreaseobservedonthe trendfortheEU27emissionsisevenhigherandamountsto27%(Figure32). InsevenMemberStates(thereofonlyoneEU12MemberState),emissionsincreasedwhileinthe majorityofcountriesCO2emissionsfromthissourcecategorydecreased(Figure33).
Figure 32 EU-15 and EU-27 CO2 emissions of other manufacturing industries and share of fuels for the EU-15, 19902006
110 100 97 90 85 84 80 70 73 60 50 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 EU-15 CO2 emissions EU-27 CO2 emissions Fuel combustion EU-15 Fuel combustion EU-27 Index (1990=100)
19 9 0 1 % 4% 28% 35%
32% 2006 9% 2% 35%
43%
Source: EEA 2008a
Liquid Fuels So lid Fuels
1% 1
Gaseo us Fuels B io mass Other Fuels
38
Figure 33 Change of CO2 emissions and fuel combustion from other manufacturing industries between 1990 and 2006 for EU-27 Member States
Ireland Spain Cyprus Denmark P o rtugal A ustria Italy Slo venia Sweden Greece B elgium Finland EU1 5 United Netherlands France M alta EU-27 Luxembo urg Germany P o land Ro mania Slo vakia Esto nia Latvia B ulgaria Hungary Lithuania Czech Republic -1 50% -1 00% -50% 0% 50% 1 00%
CO2 emissio ns
Source: EEA 2008a
Fuel co mbustio n
39
Energy-related CO2 intensity of the glass, pottery and buildings materials industry and of the cement industry (additional priority indicators N4 and 6) The Additional Priority Indicator 4 depicts the ratio of energy related CO2 emissions from the glass, pottery and buildings materials industry and gross value added from mineral products. Seven Member States report decreasing emissions between 1990 and 2006 (Figure 34). For Spain emissionsfromplasterproduction;cementproduction,limeproduction(exceptlimeproductionin paper and steel industries), glass production (including frits), brick and tiles, fine ceramic materials, and emissions from combustion (boilers, gas turbines, stationary engines) in the manufacture of nonmetallic mineral products industry are included. In Denmark the energy relatedCO2emissionisonlyrelatedtoconsumptionoffossilfuelsattheproductionsite.
Figure 34 Specific energy-related CO2 emissions and gross value added of mineral products (t CO2/t) between 1990 and 2006 (change 19902006; absolute intensity) (Additional Priority Indicator N4)
Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark EU-15 EU-27 Greece Ireland Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Romania Slovenia Sw eden UK Spain Cyprus Italy Portugal Austria Finland Germany France Hungary Slovakia Latvia Estonia -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% change in GVA 1990-2006 CO2 Intensity kt/Mio (2006) Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark EU-15 EU-27 Greece Ireland Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Romania Slovenia Sw eden UK Spain Cyprus Italy Portugal Austria Finland Germany France Hungary Slovakia Latvia Estonia 0 5000 10000 15000
change in CO2 emissions (1990-2006)
Note:
Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Source: Member States' submissions
TheAdditionalPriorityIndicator6depictstheratioofenergyrelatedCO2emissionsfromthe glass,potteryandbuildingsmaterialsindustryandcementproduction.Elevencountriesreport CO2emissionsofcementindustry.SevencountriesreportdecreasingCO2emissions(Figure35).
40
Figure 35 Change of specific energy-related CO2 emissions of cement industry (t CO2/t) between 1990 and 2006 (change 19902005; absolute intensity) (Additional Priority Indicator N6)
CO2 Intensity t/t (2006) Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark EU-15 EU-27 Greece Ireland Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Romania Slovenia Spain Sw eden UK Cyprus Italy Portugal Austria Finland Germany France Hungary Slovakia Latvia Estonia -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark EU-15 EU-27 Greece Ireland Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Romania Slovenia Spain Sw eden UK Cyprus Italy Portugal Austria Finland Germany France Hungary Slovakia Latvia Estonia 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20
change in CO2 emissions (1990-2006) change in cement production (1990-2006)
Note: Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. . In Latvia cement production is confidential (19992006). Source: Member States' submissions
ForSpain,cementproductioncorrespondstonationallyproducedclinkeronlyandexcludes importedclinker.InDenmark,energyrelatedCO2emissionsareonlyrelatedtoconsumptionof fossilfuelsattheproductionsite.
41
A 1.3.7 CO2 emissions from energy use in agriculture, forestry, fisheries Definition(IPCCsector1A4c):emissionsfromfuelcombustioninagriculture,forestry,ordomestic inland,coastalanddeepseafishing.Thisincludestractionvehicles,pumpfueluse,graindrying, horticulturalgreenhousesandotheragriculture,forestryorfishingrelatedfueluse.
CO2 emission from 1A4c EU-15 EU-27 Share in 1990 total GHG 1.7 % 1.6 % Share in 2006 total GHG 1.5 % 1.5 % Change 1990 2006 11.4 % 14.2 % Change 2000 2006 2.5 % 3.5 %
Between1990and2006,EU15CO2emissionsfromenergyuseinagriculture,forestryand fisheriesdecreasedby11%,duetodecreasingfueluse.
Between1990and2006,CO2emissionsandtheamountoffuelcombustedhavedecreasedinmost countries(Figure37).ChangesinCO2emissionsandfuelcombustionweretightlycoupledinthe EU15andtheEU27(Figure36).ChangesinCO2emissionsandfuelcombustionwerealsotightly coupledforindividualMemberStates,exceptinAustria,Bulgaria,Estonia,Italy,andPoland (Figure37).

Figure 36 CO2 emissions and fuel combustion in agriculture in the EU-15 (left) and EU-27 (right)
120 120
110
110
Index 1990 = 100
Index 1990 = 100
100
100
92 90 89
90 90
86 80 1990 80 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
1992
1994
1996 CO2 emissions
1998
2000 Fuel combustion
2002
2004
2006
CO2 emissions
Fuel combust ion
Source: EEA 2008a
42
Figure 37 Change of CO2 emissions and fuel combustion between 1990 and 2006 for EU-27 Member States
M alta Slovakia Poland Ireland Spain Sweden Italy Greece Luxembourg Netherlands EU-15 France EU-27 Austria Belgium Denmark Finland UK Estonia Slovenia Germany Portugal Bulgaria Cyprus Hungary Latvia Lithuania Romania Czech Republic -100% -50% 0% CO2 emissions 50% Fuel Combustion 100% 150%
Source: EEA 2008a
43
A 1.3.8 CO2 emissions from energy use in services Definition(IPCCsector1A4a):emissionfromfuelcombustionincommercialandinstitutionalbuildings.

CO2 emission from 1A4a EU-15 EU-27 Share in 1990 total GHG 3.8 % 3.6 % Share in 2006 total GHG 3.9 % 3.6 % Change 1990 2006 0.9 % 7.1 % Change 2000 2006 4.0 % 7.3 %
Between1990and2006,CO2emissionsfromenergyuseinservicesintheEU15decreasedby 1%. InallMemberStatesthatreportedincreasingemissionsexceptSlovenia,emissionsincreased lessthanfuelcombustion,whichindicatesthatfuelswitchinghasoccurred.
CO2emissionsfromcommercialandinstitutionalbuildingshaveashareof4%oftotalEU15 GHGemissionsin2006.ThetrendsobservedintheEU15andintheEU27aresimilar.CO2 emissionsfollowverycloselytheannualvariationsofheatingdegreedays(Figure38).For example,anincreaseinemissionsfromoneyeartoanothercanbeexplainedbycolderweather, whichresultsinahighernumberofheatingdegreedays.However,longtermtrendsofCO2 emissionsdependalsoonotherfactors,suchasthenumberofcommercialandinstitutional buildingsandthetypeoffuelused. IntheEU15,theshareofsolidfuelsintotalfuelconsumptiondecreasedfrom12%in1990to1% in2006andtheshareofliquidfuelsdeclinedfrom42%to29%,theshareofgaseousfuels increasedfrom44%to66%(datanotshown).Thisfuelshiftcanmainlyexplainwhyemissions fromserviceshaveremainedrelativelystablebetween1990and2006,whilegrossvalueaddedhas beensteadilyincreasingsince1990.Inaddition,asservicesdonotrepresentanenergyintensive sectoroftheeconomy,grossvalueaddeddependslittleonenergyuse.
Figure 38 CO2 emissions from energy use in services, gross value added of services and heating degree days in the EU-15 (left) and EU-27 (right)
190 180 170 200 190 180
Index 1990 = 100
Index 1990 = 100
160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
98 99 146
162
170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1990

100 93 146
163
2006
2008
2010
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
CO2 emissions (past) Gross Value added in services (projected)
Gross Value added in services (past ) Act ual Heating degree days
CO2 emissions (past ) Gross Value added in services (projected)
Gross Value added in services (past) Actual Heat ing degree days
Source: EEA 2008a, Eurostat, PRIMES
44
Figure 39 Change of CO2 emissions and fuel combustion between 1990 and 2006 for EU-27 Member States
P o rtugal Greece Ro mania Spain B ulgaria Cyprus Italy Netherlands B elgium Hungary A ustria Slo venia Ireland France Luxembo urg EU-1 5 EU-27 Esto nia UK M alta Germany Denmark P o land Finland Czech Republic Slo vakia Latvia Sweden Lithuania -1 00% -50% 0% 50% 1 00% 1 50% 200% 250%
CO2 emissio ns
Fuel Co mbustio n
Source: EEA 2008a
InallEU27MemberStates(exceptLuxembourg,EstoniaandSlovenia),CO2emissiontrendshave closely followed fuel combustion trends (Figure 39). However for the EU15 and the EU27, average changes in CO2 emissions and in fuel combustion show opposite trends for the period 19902006. This can be explained by the relatively low extent of these changes compared to individualMemberStates.
45
CO2 emission intensity of the commercial and institutional sector (priority indicator N6, projected indicator N6) TwentytwoMemberStatesreportednumeratoranddenominatorfor2006. ThreeMemberStates(CzechRepublic,HungaryandCyprus)reportedCO2intensitieshigher than100tCO2/EURmillion(Figure40). FifteenMemberStatesreportedprojectedCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelconsumptionin commercialandinstitutionalsectorandfourteenreportedprojectedgrossvalueaddedforthe respectivesector.Sevenofthemprojectadecreaseinemissions,butallanincreaseingross valueadded(Figure41).
MemberStateshaveverydifferenttrendfortheirnumeratoranddenominatorofPriorityIndicator N6.ThelowintensitiesinFinland,DenmarkandSweden(Figure40)areduetohighsharesof districtheatingorbiomasscombustion.

Figure 40 Change of CO2 emissions and gross value added from energy use in services between 1990 and 2006 for EU-27 Member States (Priority Indicator N6)
EU-15 EU-27 Portugal Greece Romania Spain Bulgaria Cyprus Italy Netherlands Belgium Hungary Austria Slovenia Ireland France Luxembourg Estonia UK Malta Germany Denmark Poland Finland Czech Republic Slovakia Latvia Sw eden Lithuania -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% change in CO2 emissions (1990-2006) change in GVA (1990-2006) CO2 Intensity t/Mio (2006) EU-15 EU-27 Portugal Greece Romania Spain Bulgaria Cyprus Italy Netherlands Belgium Hungary Austria Slovenia Ireland France Luxembourg Estonia UK Malta Germany Denmark Poland Finland Czech Republic Slovakia Latvia Sw eden Lithuania 0 50 100 150
81 1
200
Note:
Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Source: Member States' submissions, EEA 2008a
46
Figure 41 Projected Change of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption in services and gross value added in services between 2005 and 2010 (Projected Indicator N6)
EU-15 EU-27 Romania Austria Bulgaria Cyprus Estonia France Greece Hungary Latvia Luxembourg Malta Poland Lithuania Finland Portugal Spain Germany Ireland Sw eden Slovakia Czech Republic Belgium UK Netherlands Denmark Slovenia Italy -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
change in GVA (2005-2010)

Source: Member States' submissions
47
A 1.3.9 CO2 emissions from energy use in households Definition(IPCCsector1A4b):allemissionsfromfuelcombustioninhouseholds. Key EU policies and measures Trends Between1990and2006,CO2emissionsfromenergyuseinhouseholdshaveremained relativelystable,withanoverallchangeof1%. ShorttermvariationsofCO2emissionfromhouseholdsarecloselylinkedtoclimatic conditions,reflectedintheannualvariationsofheatingdegreedays.Longtermtrendsshowa decouplingbetweenemissionsandthenumberofhouseholds(Figure42). Directiveontheenergyperformanceofbuildings(2002) Applianceslabellingschemes(severalDirectives19962003) Schemesforenergyefficiencystandards
CO2 emission from 1A4b EU-15 EU-27 Share in 1990 total GHG 9.6 % 9.0 % Share in 2006 total GHG 9.7 % 9.1 % Change 1990 2006 0.7 % 6.2 % Change 2000 2006 0.5 % 0.5 %
In2006,CO2emissionsfrom(direct)energyusehouseholdsrepresented10%oftotalEU15GHG emissions.Indirectemissionsfromelectricityconsumptionarenotincluded,asthesearereported underthecategoryenergyindustries.ThetrendinCO2emissionsandheatingdegreedaysshows somefluctuationsbetween1990and2006,butthe19902006trendisrelativelystable,withan overallchangeof1%intheEU15andof6%intheEU27(Figure42). CO2emissionsfromhouseholdsaremainlyinfluencedbyoutdoortemperatures,thenumberand sizeofdwellings,buildingcode,theagedistributionoftheexistingbuildingstockandthefuel splitforheatingandwarmwater.Longtermtrendsshowacleardecouplingofemissionsfromthe numberofhousehold.Thisdecouplingcouldbeexplainedby: animprovementofenergyefficiencyfrombuildings; ashiftfromhouseholdheatingboilerstodistrictheatingplantsortoelectricheating.Thatshift inheatingfacilitiesreducesCO2emissionsfromhouseholdsbutmayresultinincreasing emissionsfromenergyindustries; aswitchfromsolidtogaseousfuels:therespectivesharesofsolidfuelsandgaseousfuels changedfrom12%and42%in1990,to1%and57%in2006.Theuseofliquidfuelsalso decreasedby7%between1990and2006(datanotshown).
48
Figure 42 CO2 emissions from household fuel consumption and number of households in the EU-15 (left) and EU-27 (right), 19902006
1 60 1 50 1 40 1 30 1 20 10 1 1 00 90 80 1 990 1 992 1 994 1 996 1 998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201 0 CO2 emissio ns (past) Number o f ho useho lds (past) Number o f ho useho lds (pro jected) A ctual Heating degree days 99 98 19 1 1 23 1 60 1 50 1 40 1 30 1 20 10 1 1 00 90 80 1 990 1 992 1 994 1 996 1 998 CO2 emissio ns (past) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 201 0 1 00 94 1 21 18 1
Number o f ho useho lds (past) Number o f ho useho lds (pro jected) A ctual Heating degree days
Source: EEA 2008a, PRIMES, EEA 2008a
Accordingtoprojections,thenumberofhouseholdswillincreasebymorethan20%by2010, comparedto1990(Figure42). AmainreasonfortheabsolutereductionsinCO2emissionsobservedinDenmark,Finlandand Swedenbetween1990and2006(Figure43)istheincreaseofdistrictheating,whichisindicatedby adecreaseinfuelcombustionand/oranincreaseinfinalenergyconsumption.InGermany, efficiencyimprovementsthroughthermalinsulationofbuildingsandfuelswitchinparticularin easternGermanhouseholds,solarthermalenergyproductionandbiomassdistrictheatingwere largelyresponsibleforCO2reductionfromhouseholds(EEA,2006a).
49
Figure 43 Change of CO2 emissions, fuel combustion and energy consumption between 1990 and 2006 for EU-27 Member States
Estonia Bulgaria Sw eden Lithuania Czech Republic Latvia Slovakia Hungary Finland Denmark Austria Netherlands Germany EU-27 Poland EU15 Belgium Ireland UK Luxembourg Italy France Malta Romania Portugal Spain Slovenia Cyprus Greece -100% -50% CO2 emissions
Source: EEA 2008a, Eurostat
214%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Fuel combustion
Energy consumption
InmostMemberStates,trendsinCO2emissionsandfuelcombustiondevelopedinthesame direction.This,however,wasnotobservedinAustria,Belgium,Denmark,Germany,Ireland, LatviaandPoland,wherefuelcombustionincreasedwhileCO2emissionsdecreased(Figure43).
50
Projected savings from EU policies targeting energy use from households ThedecouplingofCO2emissionsfromthenumberofdwellingsinthelastdecade(seeFigure42) wasmainlydueto: efficiencyimprovementsthroughthermalinsulationofbuildings; fuelswitch; increasesinsolarthermalenergyproductionandbiomassdistrictheating.
MemberStatesprojectthattheseefficiencyimprovementswillcontinue,encouragedbypolicies andmeasures.AkeypolicyistheEUDirectiveontheenergyperformanceofbuildings,which includesminimumstandardsfornewbuildingsandforexistingbuildingswhentheyare renovatedandtherequirementforallbuildingstohaveenergyperformancecertificates. AccordingtoprojectionsfromMemberStates,theDirectiveonenergyperformanceofbuildings willreduceemissionsby28MtCO2in2010(Figure44).OtherkeypoliciesaretheEUappliances labellingschemeandschemesforenergyefficiencystandards.SomeMemberStatesalreadyhave similarpoliciesandmeasuresinplace.TheCCPMsmatrixpresentedinChapter4ofthereport givesanoverviewoftheimplementationoftheseandotherkeypoliciesacrosstheEU.

Figure 44 EU-27 projected greenhouse gas emission savings by key CCPM addressing energy demand in 2010
30.0
25.0 Carbon savings MtCO2-eq.
20.0
15.0
28.2
10.0
5.0 5.9 0.0 Energy performance of buildings Efficiency of new boilers Energy labelling of household appliances Motor challenge programme Energy Services Directive 4.3 3.6 3.5
51
Specific CO2 emission intensity of households (priority indicator N5, projected indicator N5) SixMemberStatesoutoftwelvereportedanincreasingstockofpermanentlyoccupied dwellingsandstilldecreasingemissions(Figure45). ThreeMemberStatesreportaCO2intensityexceeding3tCO2/dwelling(Belgium,Irelandand theUnitedKingdom)(Figure45) Anincreaseinthenumberofpermanentlyoccupieddwellingsisprojectedby13ofthe14 MemberStateswhichprovideddata.Tenofthemprojectadecreaseinemissionsbetween2005 and2010(Figure46),whichindicatesfurtherprojecteddecouplingofemissionsfromthe numberofdwellings.

Figure 45 Change of CO2 emissions of household for EU-27 Member States, (change 19902006, absolute intensity) (Priority Indicator N5)
EU-15 EU-27 Greece Cyprus Slovenia Spain Portugal Romania Malta France Italy Luxembourg UK Ireland Belgium Poland Germany Netherlands Austria Denmark Finland Hungary Slovakia Latvia Czech Republic Lithuania Sw eden Bulgaria Estonia -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% CO2 Intensity t/dw elling (2006) EU-15 EU-27 Greece Cyprus Slovenia Spain Portugal Romania Malta France Italy Luxembourg UK Ireland Belgium Poland Germany Netherlands Austria Denmark Finland Hungary Slovakia Latvia Czech Republic Lithuania Sw eden Bulgaria Estonia 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
change in dw ellings (1990-2006)
Note:
Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Source: Member States' submissions, EEA 2008a
52
Figure 46 Projected Change of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption in households and number of dwellings between 2005 and 2010 (Projected Indicator N5)
EU-15 EU-27 Bulgaria Cyprus Estonia France Greece Hungary Latvia Luxembourg Malta Romania UK Portugal Poland Spain Slovakia Germany Belgium Finland Austria Lithuania Netherlands Italy Slovenia Ireland Czech Republic Denmark Sw eden -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

change number of households (2005-2010)
53
Specific CO2 emission of households for space heating (supplementary indicator N7) SevenMemberStatesreportedbothnumeratoranddenominatorfor1990and2006,whereby allreportanincreaseinsurfaceareaofpermanentlyoccupieddwellingsandfourMember Statesreportadecreaseinemissionsbetween1990and2006.
Figure 47 Change of CO2 emissions of households for space heating, (change 1990 2006, absolute intensity) (Supplementary Indicator N7)
CO2 Intensity t/m (2006) EU-27 Slovenia Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia EU-15 Greece Hungary Lithuania Malta Netherlands Poland Romania Sweden UK Portugal Spain France Italy Luxembourg Germany Ireland Austria Finland Slovakia Latvia -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% EU-27 Slovenia Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia EU-15 Greece Hungary Lithuania Malta Netherlands Poland Romania Sweden UK Portugal Spain France Italy Luxembourg Germany Ireland Austria Finland Slovakia Latvia 0.000 0.010 0.020 0.030 0.040 0.050
2.12
change in CO2 emissions (1990-2006) change in area of dwellings (1990-2006)

Note: Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. The high CO2 intensity in Slovakia can be explained by the inclusion of fuel sales for individual consumers. Source: Member States' submissions
54
A 1.4
Energy use from transport
Definition(IPCCsector1A3):emissionsfromthecombustionandevaporationoffuelforalltransport activity,regardlessofthesector,specifiedbysubsectorsasfollows.Thiscategorydoesnotincludeemissions fromfuelsoldtoanyairormarinevesselengagedininternationaltransport(internationalbunkerfuels). Key EU policies and measures Trends Between1990and2006,GHGemissionsfromtransport(allmodesoftransport)increasedby 26%.Theyincreasedbetween2000and2006by5%. Between2005and2006,GHGemissionsfromtransportincreasedby0.4%. BiofuelsDirective(2003); ACEAagreement(1999,2000); DirectivesonModalShift(2001) Directiveonlabellingofcars(1999); MarcoPoloProgramme(environmentalperformanceoffreighttransport)(2003).
GHGemission Sharein1990 Sharein2006 from1A3 totalGHG totalGHG EU15 EU27 16.4% 14.0% 21.1% 19.3%
Change 19902006 25.8% 27.4%
Change 20002006 5.0% 7.4%
Projections Emissionsfromtransportareprojectedtoincreasefrom1990levelsinallEU15MemberStates exceptinGermany.IrelandandPortugalevenprojectanincreaseofmorethan200%.Inthe EU15,emissionsin2010areprojectedtoremainat2006levelswiththeexistingmeasures. Emissionscouldbereducedto+19%above1990levelswiththeimplementationofadditional measures. FiveEU12MemberStatesdidnotreportprojectionsfortransport.TheCzechRepublicand Romaniaprojectincreaseofmorethan200%.LithuaniaistheonlyMemberStateintheEU12 projectingemissionsin2010tobelowerthan1990.
55
Policies and measures targeting GHG emission from transport TheCommunitystrategy(6)toreduceCO2emissionsfrompassengercarsandimprovefuel economyaimedatdeliveringanaverageCO2emissionvaluefornewpassengercarsequalto 120gCO2/km.ItwasmeanttohelptheEUmeetitscommitmentsundertheKyotoProtocol,and reducetheEUdependencyonimportedoilsupplies.Inordertomeetthesetargets,voluntary commitmentsbytheEuropean,JapaneseandKoreanautomobilemanufacturersassociations (ACEA,JAMA,KAMA(7))weremade,wheretheautomobileindustrycommitteditselftoreach averagespecificCO2emissionsof140gCO2/vehiclekmfornewpassengercarsby2008(ACEA) and2009(JAMA/KAMA). AccordingtothesixthannualreportontheeffectivenessofthestrategytoreduceCO2emissions fromcars(8),allthreeassociationsreducedtheaveragespecificCO2emissionsoftheircars registeredforthefirsttimeontheEUmarketin2004comparedto2003(ACEAandJAMAby approximately1.2%andKAMAbyapproximately6.1%).Overall,averagespecificCO2emissions fromnewcarswereequalto163gCO2/vehiclekmin2004.Thiswas0.6%belowthe2003level and12.4%below1995levels.InordertomeettheEUfinaltargetof120gCO2/km,additional effortsarenecessary. ManufacturerswouldneedtocutCO2by3.3%(ACEAandKAMA)and3.5%(JAMA)everyyear fortheyearsremaininguntil2008/09inordertomeetthefinaltargetof140gCO2/km.Itwas anticipatedfromthebeginningthattheaveragereductionrateswouldbegreaterinthelateryears. However,itisnotedthatthegapstobeclosed,expressedinrequiredannualperformance,further increasedin2004,puttingintoseriousdoubttheattainmentofthetargeted140gCO2/km. Figure49highlightsfivekeyCCPMsinthetransportsector:theBiofuelsDirective,theACEA agreement,theDirectivesonmodalshift(9),theDirectiveonlabellingofcarsandtheMarcoPolo Programmeaimedatimprovingtheenvironmentalperformanceoffreighttransport.Accordingto MemberStatesreports,theseCCPMsareprojectedtoreduceemissionsby69Mtin2010compared toascenariowherethesemeasuresdidnotexist.
(6) Community strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars and improve fuel economy - COM(95) 689 final, 20.12.1995. (7) ACEA: European Automobile Manufacturers Association; JAMA: Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association; KAMA: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association. (8) Implementing the Community strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from cars: Sixth annual Communication on the effectiveness of the strategy - COM (2006) 463 final, 24.8.2006. (9) Shifting the balance between modes of transport, in particular towards rail (Directives 2001/12/EC, 2001/13/EC and 2001/14/EC of 15/03/01, Regulation 881/2004 of 29/04/2004, and Directives 2001/49/EC, 2001/50/EC and 2001/51/EC of 29/04/2004).
56
Figure 48 Contribution of policies and measures to emission reductions in the transport sector in 2010, EU15
Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom
0 20 40 60 80 100 MtCO2-eq. 120 140 160 180 200

Note:
With measures scenario
Belgium, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Sweden and the United Kingdom did not define a scenario with additional measures. Source: See Sources of Information (Chapter 7). Details on individual Member States can be found in Table 4 of the Country Profiles (Annex 8).
Figure 49 Emission reduction potential of CCPMs in the transport sector in 2010, EU27
35.0
30.0
Carbon savings MtCO2-eq.
25.0
20.0 32.1 28.6
15.0
10.0
5.0 3.6 0.0 Biof uels Directive A CEA A greement Modal shift Directives Passenger car labelling Marco Polo Programme 0.7 0.5
57
A 1.4.1 CO2 emissions from road transport Definition(IPCCsector1A3b):allcombustionandevaporativeemissionsarisingfromfueluseinroad vehicles,includingtheuseofagriculturalvehiclesonhighways.

CO2emission from1A3b EU15 EU27 Sharein1990 Sharein2006 totalGHG totalGHG 15.0% 12.6% 19.1% 17.5% Change 19902006 24.8% 28.2% Change 20002006 4.3% 7.1%
Between1990and2006,CO2emissionsfromroadtransportincreasedby25%.Theyincreased by4%between2000and2006. Roadtransportrepresents93%(in1990aswellasin2006)oftotaltransportCO2emissions (internationalaviationexcluded).
CO2emissionfromroadtransportisthesecondlargestkeycategoryinEU15andcontributes19% tototalGHGemissionsin2006.Finalenergydemandfortransport,passengerkilometresincars andCO2emissionsshowaverysimilarincreasingtrendofabout2530%,whiletheincreaseof freighttransportismuchstronger,about60%intheEU15(Figure50).

Figure 50 Trend of CO2 emissions from transport and passenger and freight transport of the EU-15 (left) and the EU-27 (right)
180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 1990 175 162 142 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 187 168 148 139 132 128
Index (1990=100)
134 131 125
Index (1990=100)
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 CO2 emissions (past) Passenger kilometers in cars (past) Passenger kilometers in cars (projected) Freight kilometers on road (past) Freight kilometers on road (projected) Final Energy Consumption (past)
CO2 emissions (past) Passenger kilometers in cars (past) Passenger kilometers in cars (projected) Freight kilometers on road (past) Freight kilometers on road (projected) Final Energy Consumption (past)
Source: EEA 2008a, Eurostat, PRIMES
CO2emissionsandfuelcombustionshowchangesinthesamerange,whileN2Oincreasedby20% ormoreinallMemberStatesexceptHungary.TheincreaseinN2Oemissionsismainlyduetothe introductionofcatalyticconverters.ReductionsofN2OemissionsareonlyreportedbyEstoniaand Lithuania(Figure51).
58
Figure 51 Change of CO2, N2O emissions from road transport and fuel combustion between 1990 and 2006 for EU-27 Member States
Czech Republic Ireland Luxembourg Cyprus Portugal Spain Romania Austria Slovenia Poland Greece Hungary Malta Netherlands Denmark Latvia EU27 Belgium Italy Slovakia EU15 France Sw eden UK Finland Bulgaria Germany Estonia Lithuania -50% 50% 150% CO2 emissions 250% N2O emissions 350% fuel combustion 450% 658% 810%
Source: EEA 2008a
59
Emissions intensity from passenger (priority indicator N3, projected indicator N2)
Figure 52 Change of CO2 emission from passenger cars per number of km by passenger cars (change 19902006; absolute intensity) (Priority Indicator N3)
Thenumberofkilometresdrivenandemissionsincreasedinallreportingcountries,except GermanyandtheUnitedKingdom,whereemissionsdecreased(Figure52). AllreportingMemberStatesprojectafurtherincreaseofkilometresdrivenby2010(Figure53). Despiteimprovedefficiencyofpassengercars,CO2emissionsareprojectedtoincreasebetween 2005and2010inall16reportingMemberStates,exceptinGermany,BelgiumandAustria.
Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia EU-15 EU-27 Greece Hungary Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Poland Romania Sw eden Ireland Portugal Spain Slovenia Slovakia Austria Italy Netherlands France Finland UK Germany -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% CO2 Intensity kt/Mkm (2006) Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia EU-15 EU-27 Greece Hungary Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Poland Romania Sw eden Ireland Portugal Spain Slovenia Slovakia Austria Italy Netherlands France Finland UK Germany 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50
change CO2 emissions (1990-2006) change number of kilometers (1990-2006)
Note: Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Source: Member State's submissions
60
Figure 53 Projected change of CO2 from passenger cars and number of km by passenger cars between 2005 and 2010 (Projected Indicator N2)
EU-27 EU-15 Romania Portugal Malta Luxembourg Latvia Hungary Greece France Estonia Cyprus Bulgaria Slovakia Poland Denmark Ireland UK Italy Slovenia Sw eden Finland Czech Republic Spain Lithuania Netherlands Austria Belgium Germany -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
change number of km (2005-2010)
61
Emissions intensity from freight transport (additional priority indicator N1)

Figure 54 Change of CO2 emission from freight transport on road per freight transport on road (change 19902006; absolute intensity) (Additional Priority Indicator N1)
Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Denmark Estonia EU-15 EU-27 Greece Hungary Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Poland Romania Slovenia Sw eden Ireland Austria Portugal Spain Netherlands Germany UK France Finland Slovakia Italy 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% CO2 Intensity kt/Mkm (2006) Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Denmark Estonia EU-15 EU-27 Greece Hungary Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Poland Romania Slovenia Sw eden Ireland Austria Portugal Spain Netherlands Germany UK France Finland Slovakia Italy 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50
FreighttransportationonroadandresultingCO2increasedinallreportingcountriesbetween 1990and2006(Figure54).
change freight transport (1990-2006) change CO2 emissions (1990-2006)
Note:
Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Source: Member States' submissions
InItalyandGermanyCO2emissionsfromfreighttransportonroadincludeonlyheavyduty vehicles.InGermanythesefiguresareinlandrelated.FortheUnitedKingdomfiguresreferonlyto GreatBritainandexcludeNorthernIreland.InSwedenCO2emissionsfromfreighttransport includeemissionsfrombussesandthefreighttransportonroadincludesonlytransportofgoods byroadbySwedishregisteredtrucks.
62
Specific diesel-related CO2 emissions of passenger cars (supplementary indicator N1)

Figure 55 Change of specific diesel related CO2 emissions of passenger cars (g CO2/100km) between 1990 and 2006 (change 19902006; absolute intensity) (Supplementary Indicator N1)
Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia EU-15 EU-27 Greece Hungary Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Poland Romania Sweden Latvia Portugal UK Spain Slovenia Austria Ireland France Italy Germany Slovakia Netherlands Finland 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200%
Theemissionsresultingfromdieseldrivencarsandthenumberofdrivenkilometresincreased inallreportingMemberStatesbetween1990and2006(Figure55).
CO2 Intensity g/100km (2006)

Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia EU-15 EU-27 Greece Hungary Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Poland Romania Sweden Latvia Portugal UK Spain Slovenia Austria Ireland France Italy Germany Slovakia Netherlands Finland 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60
change CO2 emissions (1990-2006) change number of km (1990-2006)

Note: Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Source: Member States' submissions
InGermanyCO2emissionsofdieseldrivenpassengercarsandnumberofkilometresofdiesel drivenpassengercarsareinlandrelated.IntheNetherlandsonlynumberofkilometresofdiesel drivenpassengercarsarebasedondomesticdrivenkilometres.
63
Specific petrol-related CO2 emissions of passenger cars (supplementary indicator N2) MemberStatesreportverydifferenttrendsforCO2emissionsandkilometresfrompetrol drivencars.Incontrasttodieseldrivencars,decreasesinCO2emissionsanddrivenkilometres arereportedbyseveralcounties(Figure56).Thisreflectsashiftfrompetroltodieseldriven cars,asobservedinGermanyandAustria.
Figure 56 Change of petrol related CO2 emissions of passenger cars between 1990 and 2006 (change 19902006; absolute intensity) (Supplementary Indicator N2)
CO2 Intensity g/100km (2006) Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia EU-15 EU-27 Greece Hungary Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Poland Romania Sw eden Ireland Portugal Slovakia Netherlands Slovenia Finland Spain Italy Austria UK Germany France -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% change in number of km (1990-2006) change in CO2 emissions (1990-2006) 150% Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia EU-15 EU-27 Greece Hungary Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Poland Romania Sw eden Ireland Portugal Slovakia Netherlands Slovenia Finland Spain Italy Austria UK Germany France 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25

Note: Comparisons of absolute intensities are only of limited significance as data are not always consistent across countries. Source: Member States' submissions
InGermanyCO2emissionsofpetroldrivenpassengercarsandnumberofkilometresofpetrol drivenpassengercarsareinlandrelated.IntheNetherlandsonlynumberofkilometresofpetrol drivenpassengercarsarebasedondomesticdrivenkilometres.
64
A 1.4.2 CO2 emissions from domestic civil aviation Definition(IPCCsector1A3a):emissionsfromdomesticairtransportincludingallcivilpassengerand freighttrafficinsideacountry(commercial,private,agricultural,etc.),includingtakeoffsandlandingsfor theseflightstages.Thiscategorydoesnotincludeemissionsfromfueluseatairportsforgroundtransport, fuelforstationarycombustionatairportsandfuelsoldtoanyairormarinevesselengagedininternational transport(internationalbunkerfuels). Between1990and2006,CO2emissionsfromdomesticcivilaviationincreasedby56%,which representsanannualaveragegrowthof+2.8%.Thiswasduetoincreaseddemandforair traffic,despiteefficiencyincreasesthroughtechnologicalimprovementsandoperative measures. Internationalaviationisnotincluded;itscontributiontoGHGemissionsisEUwidemuch higherthanthedomesticaviation.
CO2emission from1A3a EU15 EU27
Sharein1990 Sharein2006 totalGHG totalGHG 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5%
Change 19902006 55.9% 52.1%
Change 20002006 6.8% 7.3%
CO2emissionsfromdomesticcivilaviationcontribute0.6%tototalEU15greenhousegas emissionsin2006.ForEU15,thenumberofairpassengersincreasedbyabout114%comparedto 1990(+4.9%annualgrowth)andafurtherincreasetoabout148%comparedto1990isprojected for2010(Figure57).Comparedto2007ssubmission,Greecerevisedthetimeseriesnowshowing anemissionsincreasebetween1990and2006(EEA,2008a).Thisincreaseisalsoreflectedinthe EU15andtheEU27CO2emissionsfromdomesticcivilaviation.

Figure 57 CO2 emissions and fuel combustion from domestic civil aviation and projected value for air passengers in the EU-15 (left) and EU-27 (right)
280 Index (1990=100) 230 214 180 156 130 80 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 248
280 Index (1990=100) 246 218 230 180 152 130 80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Domestic air-passengers (projected) CO2 emissions (past) Fuel Combustion Domestic air-passengers (past)
Domestic air-passengers (projected) CO2 emissions (past) Fuel Combustion Domestic air-passengers (past)
Source: EEA 2008a, PRIMES

CO2emissionsfromaviationrepresentapproximately2.5%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions. Thetotalimpactofaviationonclimatechangeisestimatedtobetwotofivetimeshigherthanthe effectofCO2alone,duetoemissionsofNOXandcloudformation. Emissionsfrominternationalaviationarenotcoveredbyquantifiedemissionsreduction commitmentundertheKyotoProtocol,butaccordingtothedataincludedinnationalGHG inventoryreports,internationalflightsareresponsibleforabout80%oftotalfuelconsumption fromaviationfortheEUasawhole.Theshareislowestinlargercountrieswhereasinternational aviationisresponsibleforover95%oftheemissioninmostsmallMemberStateswithnoorvery littledomesticflights. AirtransportissteadilyincreasingalthoughtheattackontheWorldTradeCentreinNewYork CityinSeptember2001hadclearimpactoninternationaltrafficandrelatedCO2emissionsduring twoyears.ProjectionsshowthatCO2emissionswillfurtherincreasefordomesticaswellasfor internationaltransport.FortheEU15MemberStates,projectedincreasesinCO2emissionfrom domesticaviationrangefrom144%to309%(ETC/ACC2006).
66
Specific air transport emissions (supplementary indicator N4) CO2emissionsfromdomesticaviationincreasedinsixteenMemberStatesanddecreasedin nineMemberStatesbetween1990and2006.TheincreaseinCO2emissionsissimilarforEU15 andEU27(56and52%respectively)(Figure58). Numbersondomesticairpassengerareonlyreportedbytencountries.Austria,Italyand SpainshowamuchsmallerincreaseinCO2emissionsfromdomesticaviationthaninnumbers ofairpassengers.Finlandevenshowsadecreaseinemissionswhilethenumberofair passengersisincreasing.
InDenmark,emissionshavedecreasedsincethebuildingoftheGreatBeltBridgein1997(linking togetherthetwolargestDanishislands).IntheCzechRepublic,thestrongdecreaseobserved seemstobepartlyduetodifferentmethodsusedin1990andin2006toallocateemissionsto domesticortointernationalaviation.

Figure 58 Change of CO2 from civil aviation and number of domestic air-passengers between 1990 and 2006 for EU-27 Member States (Supplementary Indicator N4)
M alta Hungary Cyprus Latvia Lithuania A ustria Luxembo urg P o rtugal Greece UK Ireland Germany Italy Spain EU-1 5 EU-27 Slo vakia France P o land Netherlands Sweden Finland B elgium Slo venia Ro mania Denmark B ulgaria Esto nia Czech Republic -1 00% -50% 0% 50% 1 00% 1 50% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%
3654%
change in CO2 emissio ns (1 990-2006)
change Do mestic air-passengers (1 990-2006)
Note: Cyprus, Hungary (2006) and Malta (1990) reported that CO2 emissions from civil aviation as not occurring). Cyprus (1990 2006), Luxembourg (19902006) and Slovenia (20032006) reported for domestic air passengers not occurring and Lithuania reported that there were no regular domestic flights. Source: EEA 2008a, Member States' submissions.
A 1.5
Industrial processes
Definition(IPCCsector2):byproductorfugitiveemissionsofgreenhousegasesfromindustrialprocesses. Emissionsfromfuelcombustioninindustryarereportedunderthesourcecategory1Energy(seeabove). Trends Between1990and2006,greenhousegasemissionsfromindustrialprocessesdecreasedby 12%.Theyremainedstablebetween2000and2006.
totalGHG emissionfrom sector2 EU15 EU27
Sharein1990 Sharein2006 totalGHG totalGHG 8.8% 8.6% 7.9% 8.1%
Change 19902006 12.1% 12.8%
Change 20002006 0.3% 3.1%
Projections EmissionsfromindustrialprocessintheEU15areprojectedtoremainatconstantlevelwith existingmeasures.Belgium,Germany,theNetherlandsandtheUnitedKingdomprojectthat greenhousegasemissionsfromindustrialprocessesin2010willbelowerthan1990emissions withexistingmeasures. SevenEU12MemberStates(Bulgaria,Cyprus,CzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Polandand Romania)projectdecreasesinGHGemissionsfromindustrialprocessescomparedto1990 emissions.Estoniaevenprojectsa73%decreaseby2010withexistingmeasures. Austria,Finland,Germany,ItalyandSpaindefinedadditionalmeasures,whereastheother EU15MemberStatesonlyprovideprojectionsforalreadyexistingmeasures.Thehighest relativereductionsareprojectedtheUnitedKingdom.
Projected savings from policies and measures targeting industrial processes Policiesandmeasuresaremainlyaimedatabatementmeasuresinadipicandnitricacid production(toreduceN2Oemissions)andonalternatives(substitutes)forHFCsinrefrigeration andairconditioning.Measuresaimedatadipicacidproductionaremainlyinthewithexisting measuresprojections,butsomecountriesreportbothexistingandadditionaldomesticmeasures fortheotherprocessemissions.However,threeoftheEU15MemberStatesdidnotreportany policiesandmeasuresforthesesourcecategories.MemberStatesexpectsomegreenhousegas savingsinindustrialprocessestobeachievedbyregulatorypoliciesandmeasuresandthrough voluntaryagreements.PoliciesandmeasuresinmostMemberStatestoimplementtheFgas regulationanddirectiveareatanearlystageofdevelopment. Figure59andFigure60illustratethecontributionofpoliciesandmeasurestothereductionof emissionsfromtheindustrialprocesssectorin2010forEU15andEU12respectively.Figure61 highlightsthetwomainCCPMstargetingemissionsintheindustrialprocesssector,whichare projectedtoresultin1.6MtCO2eq.reductionsacrosstheEU27in2010.
Figure 59 Contribution of policies and measures to emission reductions in the industrial process sector in 2010, EU15
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Figure 60 Contribution of policies and measures to emission reductions in the industrial process sector in 2010, EU12
Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia
0 5 10 15 MtCO2-eq. 20 25 30
With existing measures scenario

Figure 61 Emission reduction potential of CCPMs in the industrial process sector in 2010, EU27
1.8 1.6 1.4 Carbon savings MtCO2-eq. 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 F-gas regulation HFC motor vehicle air conditioning 1.5
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A 1.5.1 CO2 emissions from cement production (2A1) Between1990and2006,EU15CO2emissionsfromcementproductionincreasedby6%. Between2000and2006EU15emissionsincreasedby4%.

CO2emission from2A1 EU15 EU27 Sharein1990 Sharein2006 totalGHG totalGHG 1.9% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% Change 19902006 6.0% 0.8% Change 20002006 3.7% 3.8%
CementproductiondominatesthetrendoftotalGHGemissionsfromindustrialprocesses.Factors fordecliningemissionsintheearly1990swereloweconomicgrowthandcementimportfromeast Europeancountries.ItisprojectedthatcementproductionintheEU15willincreaseby2010by 4%.

Figure 62: Trend of CO2 emissions from cement production of the EU-15 (left) and the EU-27 (right)
160 150 Index (1990=100) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 CO2 emissions (past) Cement production (past) Cement production (projected) 107 106 111
160 150 Index (1990=100) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 CO2 emissions (past) Cement production (projected) Cement production (past) 101 112

Source: EEA 2008a, PRIMES
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Figure 63: Change of CO2 emissions and cement production between 1990 and 2006 for EU-27 Member States
Malta Ireland Cyprus Denmark Spain Portugal Sweden Greece Italy Belgium Poland Slovenia EU15 EU27 Netherlands Austria Slovakia Germany Estonia France Romania UK Hungary Luxembourg Finland Bulgaria Czech Republic Latvia Lithuania -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Cement/ clinker production
CO2 emissions
Source: EEA 2008a Note: Latvia reports cement production as confidential. Malta reports cement production as not occurring.
ProductionandemissionsarestronglycorrelatedinmostMemberStates(Fig.63).Consequently, thetrendsinemissionsgenerallyfollowedthetrendsinproduction,withapproximatelyhalfofthe MemberStatesreportingincreasesinproductionandemissions,andtheotherhalfreporting decreases.Strongincreasesincementproduction(>50%)canbeseenforCyprus,Denmarkand Ireland(Fig.63).
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N2O emissions from nitric acid production (2B2)

N2Oemission from2B2 EU15 EU27 Sharein1990 Sharein2006 Change Change totalGHG totalGHG 19902006 20002006 0.9% 0.7% 24.3% 18.4% 0.9% 0.8% 20.6% 11.1%
Between1990and2006,N2Oemissionsfromnitricacidproductiondecreasedby24%. Between2000and2006emissionsdecreasedby18%.
TheN2OemissionstrendfromnitricacidproductionintheEU15andtheEU27wasverysimilar anddecreaseduntil2002andshowedthenastrongincreasetoapproximately90%comparedto 1990(Fig.64)anddecreasedbetween2005and2006again.TheshareofN2OemissionstototalEU 15GHGemissionsin2006isapproximately1%.

Figure 64: Trend of N2O emissions from nitric acid production of the EU-15 (left) and the EU-27 (right)
150 140 130 120 110 100 93 90 80 76 70 60 50 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 N2O emissions from nitric acid production Nitric Acid Production (EU-12)
150 140 130 120 110 100 91 90 80 79 70 60 50 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 N2O emissions from nitric acid production Nitric Acid Production (EU-19)

Note: Nitric acid production for EU-15 does not include Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal; nitric acid production for EU-27 does not include Belgium, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Portugal. Source: EEA 2008a
Intheearly1990s,emissionsdecreasedmainlyduetoproductiondecreasesinseveralofthemain emittingMemberStates,inparticularFrance,Germany,SpainandItaly.Thedeclinebetween2000 and2002wasmainlyduetothechangeintheproductionpatternsintheUnitedKingdom (increasingweightofnitricacidplantswithloweremissionfactors).After2002,thetrendwas dominatedbyGermany,whereN2Oemissionsincreasedbetween2002and2005by203%dueto thestartupsoftwonewplants.NitricacidproductioninGermanydecreasedsharply(23%) between2005and2006(Fig.64).ThissharpdecreaseisalsoreflectedinEU15andEU27N2O emissions.
Index (1990=100)
Index (1990=100)
73
Figure 65: Trend of N2O emissions and nitric acid production for EU-27 Member States
Ireland Denmark Slovenia Malta Latvia Estonia Cyprus Luxembourg Lithuania Germany Poland Slovakia Portugal Greece Netherlands Finland Czech Republic EU-27 EU-15 Italy Belgium Romania Sweden France Spain Hungary UK Bulgaria Austria -150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
N2O emissions
nitric acid production

Source: EEA 2008a Note:Denmark (2005, 2006), Ireland (20032006), Estonia, Latvia, Malta and Slovenia report emissions as not occurring.
Mostreportingcountriesshowadecreasebetween1990and2006inN2Oemissionsandinnitric acidproduction(Fig.65).IrelandandDenmarkphasedoutnitricproductionalltogether.In Austria,Belgium,theCzechRepublicandFinlandemissionswerereduceddespiteincreasesin nitricacidproduction.InAustriathiswasduetotheinstallationofaN2Odecompositionfacilityin thenitricacidplantin2003.InBelgiumcatalystswereintroducedinvariousinstallations.
74
A 1.5.2 HFC emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning equipment (2F1) Between1990and2006,HFCemissionsfromrefrigerationandairconditioningequipment increasedfromalmostzerotoalmost38MtCO2eq.inEU15.Between2000and2006EU15 emissionsincreasedby123%.
HFCemission from2F1 EU15 EU27 Sharein1990 Sharein2006 totalGHG totalGHG 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.8% Change 19902006 43059.2% 48470.8% Change 20002006 123.2% 135.2%
HFCemissionsfromrefrigerationandairconditioningequipmentcontribute1%oftotalEU15 emissionsin2006. Themainreasonforthisstrongincreaseisthephaseoutofozonedepletingsubstancessuchas chlorofluorocarbonsundertheMontrealProtocolandthereplacementofthesesubstanceswith HFCs.

Figure 66: Trend of HFC emissions refrigeration and air conditioning of the EU-15 and the EU-27
60000 47886
Index (1990=100)
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1990
43159
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
EU-15 HFC emissions
EU-27 HFC emissions
GenerallyEU15MemberStatesshowmuchhigherHFCemissionsthanintheEU12(Figure67). Numbersbelowarepresentedinabsolutevaluesfor2006,becausein1990HFCemissionsinmost countrieswerenotoccurring.
75
Figure 67: HFC emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning for EU-27 Member States (absolute values 2006 in kt CO2-eq.)
B ulgaria EU-27 EU-1 5 France Germany Italy UK Spain Greece P o land B elgium Netherlands Czech Republic P o rtugal Sweden Denmark Finland A ustria Hungary Ireland Slo vakia Lithuania Slo venia Luxembo urg M alta Cyprus Latvia Esto nia Ro mania -1 000 1 000 3000 5000 7000 9000
Source: EEA 2008a
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A 1.6 Trends
Agriculture
Between1990and2006,GHGemissionsfromagriculturedecreasedby11%.Thedecrease was7%between2000and2006.
GHGemission Sharein1990 Sharein2006 from4 totalGHG totalGHG EU15 EU27 10.2% 10.6% 9.3% 9.2%
Change 19902006 11.4% 20.1%
Change 20002006 6.9% 5.7%
Projections Withtheexistingmeasures,EU15emissionsfromagricultureareprojectedtodecreasefrom currentlevelsto13%below1990levels.PortugalandSpainprojectthattheirgreenhousegas emissionsfromagriculturein2010willbehigherthanin1990. AllEU12MemberStatesexceptCyprusprojectdecreasesingreenhousegasemissionsfrom agriculturecomparedto1990emissions. OnlyAustria,Italy,PortugalandSpaindefinedadditionalmeasures,whereastheotherEU15 MemberStatesonlyprovideprojectionsforalreadyexistingmeasures.Thehighestrelative reductionswithallmeasuresconsidered(morethan20%)areprojectedbyAustria,Denmark, Finland,Germany,theNetherlandsandtheUnitedKingdom.
Contribution of policies and measures to greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2010 in the agricultural sector Decreasesinfertiliseruseandareductionintheapplicationofmanureonlandarelikelytoreduce N2Oemissions,whiledecreasesinthenumberofcattleandincreasesincattleproductivityare likelytocontributetoadeclineinemissionsofmethane. Thedropinfertiliserusebetween1990and2004wasachievedpartlythroughthe1992reformof the common agricultural policy (CAP), resulting in a shift from productionbased support mechanismstodirectareapaymentsinarableproduction.The2003CAPreform,whichincluded further decoupling of payments from production and cross compliance, and the new Rural Development Policy, are expected to lead to a further decline in greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, reduction in fertiliser use has also been achieved due to the implementation of EU directives such as the nitrate directive, and the agroenvironment programmes supporting extensification measures. Promotion of good practice codes for the agricultural sector is a widespread measure for Member States to reduce N2O and methane emissions. Changes in agriculturalemissionsaregenerallydrivenbyeconomicpoliciesorthoseaimedatthewiderissue ofsustainableproduction,ratherthantargetingspecificallyclimatechange.Thereisanincreasing awareness of the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and the need to develop adaptation measures, although policy development is at an early stage. Figure 68 and Figure 69 illustrate the contribution of policies and measures to the reduction of emissions from the agricultural sector in 2010 for EU15 and EU12 respectively. Figure 70 highlights a number of CCPMs targeting emissions in the agricultural sector and projected to result in 11MtCO2eq. reductionsacrosstheEU27in2010.
Figure 68 Contribution of policies and measures to emission reductions in the agricultural sector in 2010, EU15
Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sw eden United Kingdom
0 20 40 60 M t C O 2 - e q. 80 100 120
Figure 69 Contribution of policies and measures to emission reductions in the agricultural sector in 2010, EU12
Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia 0 5 10 15 20 MtCO2-eq. 25 30 35 40
78
Figure 70 Emission reduction potential of CCPMs in the agricultural sector in 2010, EU27
3.5
3.0 Carbon savings MtCO2-eq.
2.5
2.0
1.5
2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0
1.0
0.5
0.9 0.5 0.1
0.0 Common rules for Environmentally Aid for forestry CAP direct support compatible measures production methods Support for rural Nitrates Directive Agricultural/forestry EU rural districts development engine emissions programme
79
A 1.6.1 CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation (4A)

CH4emission from4A EU15 EU27 Sharein1990 Sharein2006 totalGHG totalGHG 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% Change 19902006 10.6% 20.5% Change 20002006 5.3% 5.2%
Between1990and2006,CH4emissionsfromentericfermentationdecreasedby11%.Between 2000and2006emissionsdecreasedby5%.
In2006,CH4emissionsfromentericfermentationaccountedfor3%oftotalgreenhousegas emissionsintheEU15.Mostemissionsareduetocattle(sourcecategory4A1).Between1990and 2006,CH4emissionsfromentericfermentationhavedecreasedbymorethan20%intheEU27and byabout11%intheEU15(Fig.71).

Figure 71: Trend of CH4 emissions and number of cattle from enteric fermentation in the EU-15 and CH4 emissions of the EU-27
110 Index (1990=100) 100 90 80 70 1990
89 85 80 75 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU-15 CH4 emissions EU-27 CH4 emissions
EU-15 Cattle numbers EU-27 Cattle numbers
Source: EEA 2008a
Animalnumbersarecoupledtoemissionsfromentericfermentation.Oneimportantindicatorfor animalproductivityistheaveragedailygrossenergyintakefordairyandnondairycattleand sheep. ThetrendinanimalnumbersistoalargeextentinfluencedbyEUpolicysuchassucklercow premia,milkquota,butalsoenvironmentallegislation.Animaldevelopmentisalsodeterminedby epidemicssuchastheavianflu(reducinge.g.thenumberofpoultryintheNetherlandsin2003), theBSEcrisisbetween2001and2003,tonamejustthemostimportant.(EEA,2008a) Forcattle,thedecreaseinnumbersismainlyexplainedbyanincreaseinmilkproductionperdairy cowcombinedwithanunchangedtotalmilkproduction.Milkproductionpercowincreased between1990and2005.Thisdevelopmenthasresultedfrombothgeneticchangesincattle(dueto breedingprogrammes)andthechangeinamountandcompositionoffeedintake.(EEA,2008a)
ThedecreaseinemissionscanalsobeexplainedbytheeffectsoftheEUaccession,notonlyforEU 12MemberStates,butalsoforFinlandandBelgium(EEA,2008a).Itresultsinchangesinthe economicstructurefollowedbyanincreaseintheaveragefarmsizeandadecreaseinthenumber ofsmallfarms.Itgenerallycanbeobservedthatsmallbusinessesaredisappearing.

Figure 72 Change of CH4 emission from enteric fermentation and number of cattle per EU Member States between 1990 and 2006
Malta Portugal Spain Cyprus Greece Ireland Sweden France Slovenia EU-15 Luxembourg UK Italy Belgium Austria Netherlands Finland Denmark EU27 Germany Poland Romania Hungary Czech Republic Slovakia Lithuania Estonia Bulgaria Latvia -80% -60% -40% Change in Cattle numbers (1990-2006)
Source: EEA 2008a
-20% 0% 20% 40% Change in CH4 emissions (1990-2006)
ThenumberofcattleandCH4emissionsfromthiscategoryarerathercloselylinkedinmost countries(Fig.72).However,ithastobetakenintoaccountthatapartfromthecattlespecific emissionfactorsalsothedevelopmentofotheranimalpopulationnumbers(inparticularsheep) influencesoverallCH4emissionsfromentericfermentation.
81
Specific CH4 emissions of cattle production (projected indicator N9)

Figure 73 Projected change of CH4 emission from cattle and number of cattle per EU Member State between 2005 and 2010 (Projected Indicator N9)
InmostMemberStatescattlenumbersareprojectedtofurtherdecrease,soaretheresulting CH4emissions. LithuaniaandSloveniaexpectincreasingnumbersofcattleandCO2emissionsfromenteric fermentation.
Bulgaria EU-27 Cyprus Estonia EU-15 France Germany Greece Hungary Luxembourg Malta Poland Romania Lithuania Slovenia Spain Czech Republic Portugal Italy Austria Latvia Netherlands Sweden Denmark Ireland Belgium UK Finland Slovakia -30% -20% -10% change CH4 emissions (2005-2010)
0% 10% 20% change in population (2005-2010)
82
A 1.6.2 N2O emissions from agricultural soils (4D)

N2Oemission from4D EU15 EU27 Sharein1990 Sharein2006 totalGHG totalGHG 5.3% 5.5% 4.7% 4.6% Change 19902006 14.6% 21.9% Change 20002006 9.7% 7.5%
Between1990and2006,EU15N2Oemissionsfromagriculturalsoilsdecreasedby15%. Between2000and2006emissionsdecreasedby10%.
N2Oemissionsfromagriculturalsoilsduetosyntheticfertilizerandmanureapplicationaccount for5%oftotalgreenhousegasemissionsintheEU15in2006.N2Oemissionsfromsynthetic fertiliserandmanureusedecreasedintheEU27bymorethan20%whereasintheEU15by15% since1990(Fig.74).

Figure 74: Trend of N2O emissions and fertiliser and manure use from agricultural soils in the EU-15 and EU-27
110
100
90 85 83 80 78 76 70 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 EU-15 N2O emissions EU-27 N2O emissions EU-15 Fert ilser and manure use EU-27 Fert ilser and manure use
Source: EEA 2008a
Thedecreaseinemissionsislargelyaconsequenceofefficiencyimprovements,thereformofthe EUcommonagriculturalpolicy(CAP)aswellastheimplementationoftheNitrateDirective aimedatreducingwaterpollution. ThedecouplingofemissionsfromsoilsandfertiliseruseintheNetherlandsisduetothephasing outofmanurespreadingonthelandandtheincorporationofmanureintothesoil:thismeasure aimedatreducingammoniaemissionsfrommanurehasthenegativesideeffectofincreasingN2O emissions.InGreece,thedecouplingofemissionsresultsfromtherelativelylowshareofdirect emissionsfromsoils,sototalN2Oemissionsfromsoilsarenotascloselylinkedtofertiliserand manureuseasinotherMemberStates. ThedecreaseintotalN2OemissionsfromagriculturalsoilsinDenmarkcanlargelybeattributedto theintroductionofaseriesofmeasurestopreventlossofnitrogenfromagriculturalsoiltothe aquaticenvironment.Themeasuresincludeimprovementstotheutilisationofnitrogeninmanure, abanonmanureapplicationduringautumnandwinter,increasingareawithwintergreenfields
tocatchnitrogen,amaximumnumberofanimalsperhectareandmaximumnitrogenapplication ratesforagriculturalcrops.(EEA,2008a) InFinland,emissionsfromagriculturalsoilshavedecreased25%,from1990to2006.Themain reasonscausingthisreductionare: thedecreaseinanimalnumberswhichaffectstheamountofnitrogenexcretedannually tosoils, thedecreaseintheamountofsyntheticfertiliserssoldannually, thedecreaseintheareaofcultivatedorganicsoils.
Someparameters,e.g.theannualcropyieldsaffectingtheamountofcropresiduesproduced annually,causethefluctuationinthetimeseriesbutthisfluctuationdoesnothavemucheffecton theoverallN2Oemissionstrend(EEA,2008a). Fertiliserandmanureusetogetherdecreasedinallcountries.(Figure75).InBelgium,Cyprus, Ireland,PortugalandSpaintheuseofanimalmanureincreasedbetween1990and2006,whereas inItalyandSloveniatheuseofSyntheticfertilizerincreased.InSloveniaandSpain,emissionsand fertiliseruseshowdifferenttrends.InmostMemberStates,theapplicationofsyntheticfertiliseris decreasingfasterthantheapplicationofanimalmanure(Fig.75).

Figure 75 Change of N2O emission and fertiliser and manure use (left), split for synthetic fertiliser and animal manure (right) per EU Member States between 1990 and 2005
Slovenia Spain Malta Ireland Portugal Italy Sweden Austria Luxembourg Belgium Germany EU15 France Greece Netherlands UK EU27 Finland Poland Hungary Denmark Cyprus Romania Czech Republic Lithuania Slovakia Estonia Latvia Bulgaria -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% Slovenia Spain Malta Ireland Portugal Italy Sweden Austria Luxembourg Belgium Germany EU15 France Greece Netherlands UK EU27 Finland Poland Hungary Denmark Cyprus Romania Czech Republic Lithuania Slovakia Estonia Latvia Bulgaria -80% -60% -40% -20% Synthetic Fertiliser 0% 20% 40%
N2O emissions
Fertiliser and manure use
Animal Manure
Source: EEA 2008a
84
Specific N2O emissions of fertiliser and manure use (projected indicator N8) FourteenMemberStatesreportednumeratoranddenominatorfor2005and2010.Ineight countries,emissionsfromfertiliserandmanureuseareprojectedtodecreasebetween2005and 2010(Fig.76).
Figure 76 Projected Change in N2O emission from manuring and fertiliser and manure use per EU Member State between 2005 and 2010 (Projected Indicator N8)
Bulgaria EU-27 Cyprus Estonia EU-15 Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Luxembourg Malta Poland Portugal Romania Lithuania Slovakia Latvia Spain Slovenia Austria Czech Republic Italy UK Netherlands Denmark Belgium Ireland Sweden -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
227%
80%
100%
change N2O emissions (2005-2010)
change in fertiliser use (2005-2010)

85
A 1.7 Trends
Waste
Between1990and2006,greenhousegasemissionsfromsectorwastedecreasedby39%. Between2000and2006theydecreasedby23%.
GHGemission Sharein1990 Sharein2006 from6 totalGHG totalGHG EU15 EU27 4.1% 3.9% 2.6% 2.9%
Change 19902006 38.7% 31.5%
Change 20002006 22.7% 17.6%
Projections Emissionsfromwastesectorareprojectedtodecreasemorethaninanyothersectorby2010 (44%withexistingmeasures).OnlyIreland,PortugalandSpainprojectthattheirgreenhouse gasemissionsfromwastein2010willbehigherthanin1990. OnlythreeEU12MemberStates(Bulgaria,CyprusandLithuania)projectdecreasesin greenhousegasemissionsfromwastecomparedto1990emissions. OnlyAustriaandSpaindefinedadditionalmeasures,whereastheotherEU15MemberStates onlyprovideprojectionsforalreadyexistingmeasures.Thehighestreductions(morethan 50%)areprojectedbyBelgium,Germany,theNetherlands,SwedenandtheUnitedKingdom.
Contribution of policies and measures to greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2010 in the waste sector Decreasesinemissionsofmethaneinparticularbutalsocarbondioxideandnitrousoxideare expectedtoresultfromarangeof(solidandwater)wastemanagementschemes,taxesandother measuressuchastheEULandfillTax,whichisexpectedtoreduceemissionsby7.3MtCO2eq.in 2010. Figure 68 and Figure 69 illustrate the contribution of policies and measures to the reduction of emissionsfromthewastesectorin2010forEU15andEU12respectively.
86
Figure 77 Contribution of policies and measures to emission reductions in the waste sector in 2010, EU15
0 5 10 15 20 25
With existing MtCO2-eq. scenario measures
Figure 78 Contribution of policies and measures to emission reductions in the waste sector in 2010, EU12
Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia
10
12
MtCO2-eq. With existing measures scenario
87

Source:See Sources of Information (Chapter 7). Details on individual Member States can be found in Table 4 of the Country Profiles (Annex 8).
Figure 79 Emission reduction potential of CCPMs in the waste sector in 2010, EU27
8.0 7.0
6.0 Carbon savings MtCO2-eq. 5.0
4.0 7.3 3.0 2.0
1.0 1.2 0.0 Landfill Directive Packaging directive Waste Directive 0.4
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CH4 emissions from solid waste disposal (6A)

CH4emission from6A EU15 EU27 Sharein1990 Sharein2006 totalGHG totalGHG 3.4% 3.1% 2.0% 2.2% Change 19902006 44.5% 36.1% Change 20002006 27.5% 21.8%
Between1990and2006,EU15CH4emissionsfromsolidwastedisposaldecreasedby45%. Between2000and2006theydecreasedby28%.
Figure 80: Trend of CH4 emissions and amount of solid waste disposed on land in the EU-15 and CH4 emissions of the EU-27
110 100
Index 1990 = 100
90 80 70 60 50 40 1990 66 64 60 56
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
EU-1 Waste dispo sal o n land 5 EU-27 CH4 emissio ns
EU-1 CH4 emissio ns 5 EU-27 Waste dispo sal o n land
Source: EEA 2008a
Between1990and2006,theamountoflandfilledwastedecreasedinallEU15MemberStates exceptFrance,Greece,Ireland,PortugalandSpain(Fig.80).GermanyisthefirstMemberStatethat stoppedlandfillingofbiodegradablecomponentscompletely.IntheEU12,emissionsaremostly increasing(exceptinBulgaria,Estonia,LithuaniaandPoland).Asemissionsoccurwithadelayto thedisposalitcanoccurthattheamountoflandfilledwasteisdecreasingandemissionsarestill increasing. ThemaindrivingforceofCH4emissionsfromsolidwastedisposalistheamountofbiodegradable wasteandtheamountofCH4recoveredandutilisedorflared.TheLandfillDirectivelimitsthe amountofbiodegradablewastegoingtolandfillto65%(by2006),50%(by2009)and35%(by 2016)ofthewastegeneratedin1995.TheimplementationoftheDirectivemeansalsothatallnew landfillsitesmusthavegasrecoveryfacilitiesandthatsuchfacilitieswillneedtobeinstalledinall existinglandfillsitesby2009.Theachievementofthesegoalsimpliesfurtherreductionsin methaneemissions,partofwhichhavealreadyoccurred.Increasedrecoveryofwaste,and increasinguseofrecyclingandincinerationwithenergyrecoveryareexpectedtoreduce considerablynetgreenhousegasemissionsfrommunicipalwastemanagementby2020(10). However,manyMemberStatesarestillfarfromfulfillingtheDirectivestargets. MunicipalwastegenerationratesincentralandEasternEuropearelowerthaninwestern Europeancountries.Whetherthisisduetodifferentconsumptionpatternsorunderdeveloped
(10) EEA, 2008b.
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municipalwastecollectionanddisposalsystemsneedsfurtherclarification.Reportingsystems alsoneedfurtherdevelopment(EEA,2005).
Figure 81 Change of CH4 emissions and amount of landfilled waste per EU Member States between 1990 and 2006

Source: EEA 2008a
Slovakia Romania Spain Latvia Greece Malta Czech Republic Portugal Slovenia Cyprus Hungary Ireland Italy Poland Estonia Lithuania France Denmark Sweden EU-27 Bulgaria Finland EU-15 Luxembourg Austria Netherlands United Kingdom Germany Belgium -150% -100% -50% 0% 50%
275%
100% 150%
change CH4 Emissions (1990-2006) change landfilled waste (landfilled waste 1990-2006)
Figure 82 Methane recovery per Member State in 1990 and 2006

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Bulgaria Lithuania Malta Poland Romania Cyprus UK France Germany Greece Belgium Ireland Italy Finland Portugal Luxembourg Slovenia Sweden Spain Austria Denmark Netherlands Latvia Czech Republic Estonia Slovakia Hungary 1990 2006
Source: EEA 2008a Note: Bulgaria and Lithuania report CH4 recovery as not occurring. Poland and Romania have not estimated CH4 recovery.
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Specific CH4 emissions from landfills (projected indicator N10) ProjectedIndicatorN10depictsCH4emissionsfromlandfills.FourteenMemberStatesreportdata onprojectionsofamountofCH4emissionsfromlandfillsandchangeinpopulationfor2005and 2010.(Belgiumreports0%changeinwastedisposalandthusthereisnobarforchangeinwaste disposal)(Figure83).
Figure 83 Projected change of CH4 emissions and amount of landfilled waste per EU Member States between 2005 and 2010 (Projected Indicator N10)
EU-27 Bulgaria Cyprus Estonia EU-15 Finland France Greece Hungary Luxembourg Malta Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Latvia Ireland Denmark Lithuania Czech Republic Sw eden UK Spain Austria Italy Netherlands Germany Belgium -50% change CH4 emissions (2005-2010) 0% 50%
MostreportingMemberStatesprojectthat2010CH4emissionsfromlandfillswillstaybelow 2005levels,exceptIreland,LatviaandSlovenia(Fig.82).
change in w aste disposal (2005-2010)
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Key domestic policies and measures
A 2 Key policies and measures

A 2.1 Savings from the main EU 'common and coordinated policies and measures' (CCPMs) Justunder94%ofthesavingsfromallpoliciescoordinatedacrosstheEU(CCPMs)are projectedtobedeliveredbythirteenmainCCPMs. MemberStatesprojectthattheDirectiveonemissiontradingwilldeliverthelargestreduction ofgreenhousegasemissionsby2010intheEU27.TheDirectiveonrenewableelectricity representsthesecondhighestpotentialforgreenhousegassavings. Severalpolicydevelopmentsoccurredin2007and2008,includingtheEuropeanCouncil autonomouscommitmenttoreduceEUgreenhousegasemissionsby20%before2020, substantiatedinJanuary2008byaCommissionpackageofproposalsonclimatechangeand energy. A 2.1.1 Key EU CCPMs TheEuropeanClimateChangeProgramme(ECCP)(11),launchedin2000,providesacohesive frameworktoidentifyanddevelopallthenecessaryelementsofanEUstrategytoimplementthe KyotoProtocol.UnderthefirstphaseoftheProgramme,thefocuswasontheKyotoflexible mechanisms,theenergysupply,energyconsumption,transportandindustrysectorsandresearch. TheCommissioncommittedto12priorityactionsinECCPI,andalmostallhavebeenorareclose tobeingimplemented.InOctober2005,theCommissionlaunchedECCPII.Itinvestigatednew policyareassuchasadaptation,aviationandcarboncaptureandstorage,aswellasreviewing ECCPIanddoingfurtherworkontheimplementationofexistingpoliciesandmeasures. Table1providesafulldescriptionofthekeyCCPMsreferredtointhissection.TheCCPMsare generallyEUwideDirectives,whicharethentransposedintonationalpoliciesandmeasuresby eachMemberState.
Table 1 Full description of key EU CCPMs
CCPM full description Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 2003 establishing a scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community and amending Council Directive 96/61/EC Directive 2001/77/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 September 2001on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market Directive 2004/101/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 October 2004 amending Directive 2003/87/EC establishing a scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community, in respect of the Kyoto Protocol's project mechanisms Directive 2004/7/EC on the promotion of cogeneration Directive 2002/91/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 December 2002
CCPM reference EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) RES-E Directive
Kyoto Protocol project mechanisms
Co-generation Directive Energy performance of
(11) Report on the first phase of the ECCP: www.europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/pdf/eccp_longreport_0106.pdf, Second ECCP progress report: www.europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/pdf/second_eccp_report.pdf, Details of Phase II of the ECCP: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/eccp.htm
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CCPM reference buildings Directive on energy taxation Efficiency of new boilers Motor Challenge Programme Biofuels Directive ACEA agreement CCPM full description on the energy performance of buildings Council Directive 2003/96/EC of 27 October 2003 restructuring the Community framework for the taxation of energy products and electricity Council Directive 92/42/EEC of 21 May 1992 on efficiency requirements for new hot-water boilers fired with liquid or gaseous fuels European Commission voluntary programme launched in February 2003, through which industrial companies are aided in improving the energy efficiency of their Motor Driven Systems. Directive 2003/30/EC of the European Parliament and the Council of 8 May 2003 on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport Commission Recommendations of 5 February 1999 and 13 April 2000 on the reduction of CO2 emissions from passenger cars (voluntary agreement with car manufacturers from EU, Japan and Korea to reduce fleet average CO2 emissions to 140 g/km by 2008/09) Regulation (EC) No. 842/2006 of the European Parliament and of the Council of May 17, 2006 on certain fluorinated greenhouse gases Council Directive 96/61/EC of 24 September 1996 concerning integrated pollution prevention and control Directive 2006/40/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 May 2006 relating to emissions from air conditioning systems in motor vehicles Council Directive 88/609/EEC of 24 November 1988 on the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air from large combustion plants Council Regulation (EC) No. 1782/2003 of 29 September 2003 establishing common rules for direct support schemes under the common agricultural policy and establishing certain support schemes for farmers Council Directive 1999/31/EC of 26 April 1999 on the landfill of waste Directive 2006/12/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 April 2006 on waste
F-gas regulation IPPC Directive HFC motor vehicle air conditioning Large combustion plant Directive Common rules for CAP direct support Landfill Directive Directive on waste
A 2.1.2 Estimated savings from EU CCPMs ThissectionexaminesthecontributionofEUCCPMstogreenhousegasemissionreductionsacross theEU.ItpresentsandcomparesdataontheexpectedsavingsfromEUCCPMsby2010fromtwo sources: TheCommissionsexanteestimatesassubmittedundertheECgreenhousegasmonitoring mechanismin2007,infourthnationalcommunicationstotheUNFCCCandin demonstrableprogressreportsundertheKyotoProtocol. MemberStatesestimatesinnationalreporting.
Thefiguresinthetablesbelowaremainlybasedonexanteestimatesoftheemissionsreduction potentialmadebytheCommissionofpoliciesandmeasuresidentifiedinECCPI.Theestimates werereviewedaspartofECCPII,butthereweregenerallyinsufficientquantifiedestimatesby MemberStatestocommentontheexanteestimatesindetail.However,anumberofreasonswere identifiedastowhy,insomecases,thesemeasuresareunlikelytodeliverthefullamountofthe exanteestimates. WhilenoestimateofsavingsfromtheDirectiveonemissionstradingwasincludedinthe Commissionsexanteestimates,MemberStatesassessmentsofimpactsindicatethatitisprojected todeliverthelargestreductioningreenhousegasemissionby2010.TheDirectiveonrenewable electricityisprojectedtodeliverthesecondlargestreductioningreenhousegasemissioninthe EU15,whichconcurswiththeCommissionsexanteestimatesbelow.
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Table 2 Summary of implemented and planned policies and measures, and reduction potentials in the EU-15 estimated by the European Commission
Emission reduction potential by 2010 in EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.)
Policies and measures Cross-cutting 1. 2. 3. EU Emission Trading Scheme Revision of the monitoring mechanism Link Kyoto flexible mechanisms to emissions trading
Stage of implementation /timetable /comments
N/a N/a N/a
In force. Legislative proposal in January 2008 to expand and strengthen scheme post 2012 In force In force
Energy supply 4. 5. 6. Directive on renewable electricity Directive on the promotion of transport bio-fuels Directive on promotion of cogeneration Further measures on renewable heat (including biomass action plan) Intelligent Energy for Europe: programme for renewable energy 100125 (12) 3540 (12) 2242 (13) In force. Legislative proposal in January 2008 to set new target for all renewable energy for 2020. In force In force Biomass Action Plan, Dec 200514, over 20 further actions planned. Renewable heat included in proposed new Directive on renewable energy Programme for policy support in renewable energy
7.
3648
8.
N/a 193255
TOTAL in implementation
(12) Second ECCP progress report April 2003 http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/pdf/second_eccp_report.pdf (13) The share of renewable energy in the EU - COM(2004) 366 final, 26.5.2004. (14) Biomass Action Plan - COM(2005) 628 final, 7.12.2005.
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Policies and measures Energy demand 9. Directive on the energy performance of buildings 20 (13) In force Monitoring and review In force: monitoring and review 20 (12) 1 10 23 Not known dependent on implementation of daughter directives 4055 (12) N/a In force In force In force In preparation Consultation on amending Directive held in 2008. In force; preparatory studies for daughter directives underway; adoption of first daughter directives expected in 2008 In force Launched Oct 2006 (15). Identifies 10 priority actions to achieve up to 20 % energy savings by 2020. Reference document on Best Available Techniques regarding Energy Efficiency now finalised and will be adopted in 2008 Programme for policy support in energy efficiency Supporting program as part of Intelligent Energy for Europe: In implementation Supporting programme for voluntary action on efficient motor systems EU Handbook developed for guidance for increased energy efficient public procurement Emission reduction potential by 2010 in EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) Stage of implementation /timetable /comments
10. Directive requiring energy labelling of domestic appliances Existing labels New (el. ovens &AC) Envisaged revisions (refrigerators / freezers / dishwashers) Planned new (hot water heaters) Extension of scope of Directive 11. Framework Directive on ecoefficiency requirements of energyusing products 12. Directive on Energy services 13. Action Plan on Energy efficiency as a follow-up to the Green Paper 14. Action under the directive on integrated pollution prevention and control (IPPC) on energy efficiency 15. Intelligent Energy for Europe programme for energy efficiency 16. Public awareness campaign on energy efficiency 17. Programme for voluntary action on motors (Motor Challenge) 18. Public procurement TOTAL in implementation
Not known N/a N/a 30 (12) 2540 (12) 169199
(15) Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Realising the Potential - COM(2006) 545 final, 19.10.2006.
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Policies and measures Transport VC: monitoring; review ongoing Labelling: in force, to be revised Communication on fiscal measures: in implementation Directive on taxation of passenger cars: in preparation Strategy reviewed in 2007 (16) and Regulation on CO2 emissions from cars now in preparation (17). In implementation, in relation to heavy duty road transport only; amending 'Eurovignette' Directive (which aims, among other actions, to introduce external costs into calculations of tolls for heavy vehicles on European roads) is now proposed (18). Package of measures in implementation In force Focus on EU harmonisation of taxation, not on CO2 reduction; ongoing review In force Emission reduction potential by 2010 in EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) Stage of implementation /timetable /comments
19. Community strategy on CO2 from passenger cars, including voluntary commitment (VC) of car manufacturers' associations
Total 107115 Of which VC: 7580 (12)
20. Framework Directive Infrastructure use and charging
Not known
21. Shifting the balance of transport modes 22. Fuel taxation 23. Directive on mobile air conditioning systems: HFCs TOTAL in implementation Industry 24. Regulation on fluorinated gases 25. IPPC & non-CO2 gases Waste 26. Landfill Directive 27. Thematic strategy on waste Integration Research & Development
Not known Not known See regulation on fluorinated gases 107115 23 (19) Not known
In force In force Review periodically In force Launched December 2005 (20)
41 (12) Not known
28. R&D framework Program
N/a
In force. Under the 6th Framework Programme (FP) for research and development (20002006) EUR 2 billion of support was available for climate change related research, including the fields of energy and transport. Under the 7tth FP (2007 2013), it is EUR 11 billion. EUR 308 billion (2004 prices) have been allocated for the new budgetary period of 2007 2013 Strategic guidelines highlight investments to promote Kyoto commitments, including renewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainable transport systems as eligible areas for support.
Integration Structural funds
29. Integration climate change in structural funds &cohesion funds
N/a
(16) Results of the review of the Community Strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars and lightcommercial vehicles - COM(2007) 19 final, 7.2.2007. (17) Regulation proposal setting emission performance standards for new passenger cars as part of the Community's integrated approach to reduce CO2 emissions from light-duty vehicles - COM(2007) 856 final, 19.12.2007. (18) Directive proposal amending Directive 1999/62/EC on the charging of heavy goods vehicles for the use of certain infrastructures - COM(2008) 436 final, 8.7.2008. (19) Regulation proposal on certain fluorinated greenhouse gases - COM(2003) 492 final, 11.8.2003. (20) Taking sustainable use of resources forward: A Thematic Strategy on the prevention and recycling of waste' COM(2005) 666 final and Directive proposal on waste - COM(2005) 667 final, 21.12.2005.
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Policies and measures Agriculture Improvement of the environment is a key theme, and strategic guidelines identify combating climate change including development of renewable energy, material sources for bioenergy and preserving the carbon sink in soils as eligible areas for support. The budget for rural development is EUR 77 billion for 20072013. In force Improved implementation of the nitrates Directive Emission reduction potential by 2010 in EU-15 (Mt CO2-eq.) Stage of implementation /timetable /comments
30. Integration climate change in rural development
N/a
31. Support scheme for energy crops 32. N2O from soils Forests 33. Afforestation and reforestation: - Afforestation programmes - Natural forest expansion 34. Forest management (various measures) Note: Source:
N/a 10
1412
Possibility for support through forestry scheme of rural development Possibility for support through forestry scheme of rural development, dependent on national implementation.
1912
The emission reduction potentials by 2010 in EU-15 presented are based on ex-ante estimates of the emissions reduction potential made by the Commission. European Climate Change Program, ex-ante estimates in information submitted under the EC greenhouse gas monitoring mechanism in 2007, in fourth national communications to the UNFCCC and in demonstrable progress reports under the Kyoto Protocol. Individual Member States detail can be found in Table 4 of the Country Profiles (Annex 8).
A 2.1.3 Estimated savings from CCPMs at EU-27, EU-15 and EU-12 level DataonsavingsforthekeyCCPMswasobtainedfromMemberStatesestimatesoftheexpected reductioneffectofindividualpoliciesin2010.DatawasnotavailableforfourMemberStates (Belgium,Cyprus,PolandandRomania).ThefiguresinthissectionforEU12,EU15andEU27 simplyrepresentthesumofthosereportedbyMemberStates.Foradditionalinformationon methodologicalissuesrelatingtothecalculationofsavingsfromCCPMs,pleaserefertoAnnex5 Thereportingscheme. Eightwidespreadpolicies(CCPMs)areprojectedtodeliversignificantgreenhousegasemissions savingsacrosstheEU27(from10to123MtCO2eq.perpolicy).Theseare: theEUEmissionTradingScheme(ETS)andKyotoprojectflexiblemechanisms; theRESEDirective(relatedtothepromotionofelectricityproducedfromrenewable energysources)andDirectivesontheenergyperformanceofbuildings,energytaxation andpromotionofcogeneration(combinedheatandpower); theBiofuelsDirectiveandEUwideACEAAgreementwithcarmanufacturers.
Thesetopeightpoliciesaccountfor86%ofthetotalsavingsattributedtoCCPMsintheEU27. OfalltheEUCCPMs,theEUETSandRESEDirectivearepredictedtodeliverthegreatestsavings acrossEU27MemberStates(Figure84).TheEUETSisalsoestimatedtodeliverthegreatest savingsfromPAMsthathavealreadybeenimplementedoradopted. Thetopeightpoliciesidentifiedin2008areestimatedtodeliveratotalemissionsavingof 317MtCO2eq.in2010comparedto378MtCO2eq.forthesametopeightpoliciesexaminedinthe 2007report.
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Figure 84 EU-27 estimated savings from top eight CCPMs in 2010, split by status (implemented/adopted or planned)
140 67.2 120 100 80 60 40 56.3 20 0 EU ETS RES-E Directive Biofuels Directive ACEA Agreement Energy performance of buildings Energy taxation Directive 49.9 31.0 24.8 21.5 11.9
1.1
3.8
6.6 1.2 16.4 5.4 9.6 2.0 8.5
Co-generation Kyoto project Directive mechanisms
Implemented/adopted policies and measures
Planned policies and measures
Inaddition,afurtherfiveCCPMswereidentifiedthatarealsopredictedtodeliverimportant savingsacrosstheEU(from4to7MtCO2eq.perpolicy).Thesefivepoliciesare:theLandfill Directive,efficiencyrequirementsfornewhotwaterboilers,theDirectiveonIntegratedpollution preventionandcontrol(IPPC),theDirectivesonenergylabellingofhouseholdappliancesandthe MotorChallengeProgramme. Estimatedsavingsfromthesefivepoliciesamountto27MtCO2eq.,bringingthetotalofthetop13 CCPMsto344MtCO2eq.,or94%ofthesavingsfromallCCPMsacrosstheEU.The2007and 2008resultsareverysimilar;in2007,95%ofallsavingsfromCCPMswasderivedfromthetop13 policies.

Figure 85 EU-27 estimated savings from next highest five CCPMs in 2010, split by status (implemented/adopted or planned)
8 7 0.2
6 5
0.1 1.4 1.3
4 7.1 3 2 1 0 Landfill Directive Efficiency of new boilers IPPC Directive Energy labelling of household appliances 5.8 4.2 3.0
0.0
3.6
Motor Challenge Programme
Implemented/adopted policies and measures
Planned policies and measures
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A 2.1.4 Estimated savings from CCPMs by Member State

Figure 86 CCPMs estimated to deliver the greatest savings in EU-15 Member States, 2010
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Landfill Directive Waste directive Packaging waste Directives
80
Passenger car labelling Modal shift Directives ACEA Agreement
70
Biofuels directive HFC emissions from air con. in motor vehicles F-gas regulation
60
Co-generation Directive Energy taxation Directive
RES-E Directive
50
Energy Services Directive Motor challenge programme Energy labelling of household appliances
40
Efficiency of new boilers Energy performance of buildings IPPC Directive
30
Kyoto Protocol project mechanism EU ETS EU rural districts programme
20
Agricultural/forestry engine emissions Nitrates Directive Support for rural development
10
Aid for forestry measures Environmentally compatible production methods Common rules for CAP direct support
0 AT DE DK ES FI FR GR IE IT LU NL PT SE UK
Note: Source:
AT: Austria, DE: Germany, DK: Denmark, ES: Spain, FI: Finland, FR: France, GR: Greece, IE: Ireland, IT: Italy, LU: Luxembourg, NL: Netherlands, PT: Portugal, SE: Sweden, UK: United Kingdom Database on Policies and Measures in Europe (www.oeko.de/service/pam/sector.php) as of 17 July 2008.
Figure86shows,foreachEU15MemberStateforwhichdataisavailable,thepoliciesthatare projectedtodeliversavingsin2010. TheUnitedKingdom,Germany,SpainandItalyandshowthelargestprojectedsavingsfrom CCPMs.AcrosstheEU15themostsignificantsavingsareexpectedfromtheEUETS,theRESE Directive,theBiofuelsDirective,thevoluntaryagreementwithcarmanufacturersonCO2,andthe Directiveontheenergyperformanceofbuildings. TheequivalentdataforEU12MemberStatesforwhichdataisavailableisshownonFigure87.
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Figure 87 CCPMs estimated to deliver the greatest savings in EU-12 Member States, 2010
6
Landfill Directive Waste directive Packaging waste Directives
Passenger car labelling M odal shift Directives ACEA Agreement
Biofuels directive HFC emissions from air con. in motor vehicles M arco Polo Programme Large Combustion Plant Directive
Co-generation Directive Energy taxation Directive RES-E Directive
Energy labelling of household appliances Energy performance of buildings IPPC Directive
EU ETS Nitrates Directive Support for rural development Aid for forestry measures
0 BG
Source:
Common rules for CAP direct support
CZ
HU
LT
LV
SI
SK
Database on Policies and Measures in Europe (www.oeko.de/service/pam/sector.php) as of 17 July 2008.
TheCzechRepublic,HungaryandSloveniashowthelargestprojectedsavingsintheEU12with themostsignificantsavingscomingfromtheEUETSandtheRenewablesDirective. Intermsofdifferencesbetween2007and2008findings,mostofthekeyCCPMsacrosstheEU27 areunchanged,thoughEUETShasbecomemoreprominent.Theestimatedimpactonemissions reductionsoftheDirectiveshasdecreasedslightlyforseveralpoliciesandtotalsavingsfrom CCPMshavealsoreducedby13%comparedto2007.Thesplitbetweenimplemented/adopted andplannedmeasuresisbroadlysimilarto2007,withaslightmovementtowardsplanned policies. MemberStateshavetransposedEUCCPMsusingavarietyofdomesticPAMs.Ithasproved difficulttoseparateoutsavingsfordomesticPAMsdirectlyresultingfromCCPMs,andthe savingspresentedinthissectiononkeypoliciesmayalsocovermeasuresnotdirectly implementedasaresultofaCCPM. SomeoftheobserveddifferencesinestimatedsavingsattributedtoeachCCPMfromyeartoyear maybeduetodifferentmethodsofassigningreportedsavingseithertotheCCPMortonational PAMsthatwereinplacebeforetheCCPM(whicharenotconsideredhere).Inparticular,thisis likelytoaccountformostoftheapparentdifferenceintheeffectoftheLandfillDirective,as severalMemberStateshadnationalmeasuresinplacebeforetheintroductionoftheCCPM.
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A 2.1.5 Recent developments and proposals relating to EU CCPMs In2007theEuropeanCouncilmadeanautonomouscommitmenttoreduceEUgreenhousegas emissionsby20%before2020,withamoreambitious30%reductionpossible,providedthatother developedcountriescommitthemselvestocomparablereductions(21).TheCommissioncontinues tointegrateclimatechangeintootherpolicyareasoftheEU.Themostimportantrecent development(inJanuary2008)isCommissionsreleaseoftheEUclimateactionandrenewable energypackagewhichfurtherdevelopedsomeofthekeymeasuressetoutintheearlier(January 2007)integratedenergyandclimatechangepackage(22)(23).Itincluded: EUETS:Alegislativeproposal(24)toexpand,strengthenandimprovethefunctioningof theEUETSinitsnextPhasepost2012(cf.section3.5ofthereport) EffortSharing:Alegislativeproposal(25)foraframeworkfornationalcommitmentsto reduceemissionswhichareoutsidethescopeoftheEUETS(cf.section3.5ofthereport) Renewables:Alegislativeproposal(26)toincreasetheshareofrenewableenergyintheEU finalenergyconsumptionto20%by2020,andofbiofuelsintransportto10%.(cf.section 5.2.2ofthereport) CarbonCaptureandStorage:Policies(27)toencourageearlydemonstrationofcaptureand geologicalstorageofcarbonincludingalegislativeproposalforaregulatory framework(28).
Otherrecentimportantdevelopmentsinclude: Fluorinatedgases:adoptionofaRegulationandDirective(July2006)tolimitemissionsof fluorinatedgases,includingthosefromairconditioningincars. EnergyEfficiency:ActionPlanforEnergyEfficiency(October2006),whichsetsout10priority actionstorealiseupto20%energysavingsby2020.Recentandproposedmeasuresto implementtheActionPlanincludeanamendmenttotheEnergyStarRegulation(2007)and 20082009proposalsforrevisionsoftheframeworkenergylabellingDirectiveandDirectiveon carlabelling,introductionofenergylabellingschemefortyresandarecastoftheDirectiveon theenergyperformanceofbuildings, CO2andcars:Communication(February2007)settingoutstrategyforreducingemissionsand Regulationproposal(17)(December2007)tosettargetforaverageCO2emissionsfromnewcars
(21) Brussels European Council, 8/9 March 2007, Presidency Conclusions - 7224/1/07, 02.05.2007. (22) Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius: the way ahead for 2020 and beyond - COM(2007) 2 final, 10.1.2007. (23) An energy policy for Europe - COM(2007) 1 final, 10.1.2007. (24) Directive proposal amending Directive 2003/87/EC so as to improve and extend the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading system of the Community - COM(2008) 16 final, 23.1.2008. (25) Decision proposal on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Communitys greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020 - COM(2008) 17 final, 23.1.2008. (26) Directive proposal on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources - COM(2008) 19 final, 23.1.2008. (27) 'Supporting Early Demonstration of Sustainable Power Generation from Fossil Fuels' - COM(2008) 13 final, 23.1.2008. (28) Directive proposal on the geological storage of carbon dioxide and amending Council Directives 85/337/EEC, 96/61/EC, Directives 2000/60/EC, 2001/80/EC, 2004/35/EC, 2006/12/EC and Regulation (EC) No 1013/2006 COM(2008) 18 final, 23.1.2008.
101
at130gCO2/kmby2012relyingonimprovementsinvehiclemotortechnologytosetstandards forCO2emissionsfromcars; Transportfuels:legislativeproposal(January2007)torevisethefuelqualityDirectivewhich includestargetsforreducingGHGemissionsassociatedwiththeproductionofpetroland diesel; Promotionofcleanandenergyefficientvehicles:legislativeproposal(29)(December2007) requiringtheinclusionofCO2emissions,operationallifetimecostsofenergyconsumption,and pollutantemissionsasawardcriteriainthepublicprocurementofroadtransportvehiclesfrom 2012; Lightdutyvehicles:Consultation(September2008)initiatedonproposalaimingatimproving thefuelefficiencyoflightdutyvehicles; Energytaxation:ReviewoftheEnergyTaxationDirectivewhichwillensurethatitisbetterin linewithEUclimatechangeandenergypolicies.
(29) Revised Directive proposal on the promotion of clean and energy efficient road transport vehicles COM(2007) 817 final, 19.12.2007.
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A 2.2 Main savings from existing and additional domestic policies and measures in the EU-15 A 2.2.1 Reporting of policies and measures by Member States and quantitative estimates. UndertheEUMonitoringMechanism,MemberStatesarerequiredtoprovideinformationevery twoyearsonthepoliciesandmeasures(PAMs)includedintheirwithexistingmeasures projections(WEM)andintheirwithadditionalmeasuresprojections(WAM),withquantitative estimatesoftheeffectofpoliciesandmeasuresonemissionsbysourcesandremovalsbysinksof greenhousegasesbetweenthebaseyearandsubsequentyears,including2005,2010and2015(30) (Figure88). Theseestimatesrelatetoabsolutesavingsandareequivalenttoemissionreductionscomparedtoa hypotheticalscenariowherenomeasurewouldhavebeenimplemented(withoutmeasures)and emissionswouldhavebeeninfluencedbyotherfactors,suchasmacroeconomicparameters. Therefore,thequantifiedsavingsreferredtointhepresentsectionshouldbeinterpretedwithcare, astheydifferfromtheprojectedemissionreductionsrelativetobaseyearemissionsalthough theyderivefromthesamepoliciesandmeasures.
Figure 88 Types of scenarios, policies and measures and estimated effects.
Note: This figure relies on the assumption that the latest GHG inventory data are from 2000. Source: UNFCCC guidelines for national communications.
ThetypeofpoliciesandmeasurescanbeeitherEUlevelCCPMsorspecificnationalPAMs.In somecases,thisdistinctionisclearfromtheinformationreportedbytheMemberStates,butin general,totaleffectsofPAMsareaggregatedatasectorlevelandarenotavailableatthislevelof detail.
(30) Article 3(2) of Decision No 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 February 2004 concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol.
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ForadditionalinformationonmethodologicalissuesrelatingtothecalculationofPAMsand withoutmeasuresprojections,pleaserefertoAnnex5,Thereportingscheme. A 2.2.2 Savings from PAMs as estimated by EU-15 Member States EU15emissionsavingsin2010fromexistingandadditionalpoliciesandmeasuresare projectedtototalto377MtCO2eq.(comparedtoascenariowithoutmeasures). Additionalplannedmeasuresareprojectedtobringatotalreductionof142MtCO2eq.(38%of thetotalprojectedreduction). ThegreatestabsolutesavingsareprojectedtooccurinGermany,Italy,theNetherlandsand Spain. ThelargedecreaseintotalprojectedsavingsintheEU15comparedto2007estimates (accordingtowhich727MtCO2eq.wouldbesavedby2010)ismainlyduetoachangeinthe methodusedforestimatingsavings.
Projectedemissionsavingsfrompoliciesandmeasuresby2010intheEU15areprojectedtototal to377MtCO2eq.(Figure89).38%ofthetotalsaving(142MtCO2eq.)isprojectedtocomefrom measuresnotimplementedoradoptedasyet(additionalmeasures).Thegreatestabsolutesavings areprojectedtooccurinGermany,Spain,ItalyandtheNetherlands,mostlyafterthe implementationofadditionalmeasures(Figure90). In2007,727MtCO2eq.emissionsavingsfrompoliciesandmeasuresintheEU15by2010were reported,with23%ofthesavingscomingfromtheimplementationofadditionalPAMs.In2007, thelargestsavingswerereportedbyItaly,GermanyandtheUnitedKingdom.ForseveralMember States,thetotalsavingspresentedinthisyearsreporthavereducedcomparedtothe2007report, duetoachangeofcalculationmethod(shiftfromabottomupcalculationofPAMsavingstoatop downcalculationbasedontotalprojections).SavingsprojectedbytheUnitedKingdomhave decreasedby90MtsincelastyearastheUnitedKingdomdoesnotreportawithoutmeasuresor withadditionalmeasuresprojection.Significantreductionsinprojectedsavingshavealso occurredinItaly,GreeceandtheNetherlands,withrevisedestimatesbeinglowerby 107MtCO2eq.,37MtCO2eq.and37MtCO2eq.respectivelycomparedto2007.Theonly significantincreaseinsavingscomparedtolastyearcomesfromSpain(32MtCO2eq.asawith additionalmeasuresprojectionhasbeenprovidedthisyear). Figure89displaysEU152010projectionsunderwithmeasuresscenarios,andwheretheyexist, withadditionalmeasuresandwithoutmeasuresscenarios.AllEU15MemberStatespresentthe mandatorywithmeasuresscenario,butin2008onlyeightpresentedanoptionalwithout measuresscenarioandtenpresentedanoptionalwithadditionalmeasuresscenario.Figure90 showstheresultsofthetopdowncalculationoftheeffectofpoliciesandmeasures.No estimationsarepossibleforSwedenandtheUnitedKingdombythetopdownapproachasthey onlyprovidedawithmeasuresscenario.
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Figure 89 EU-15 contribution of policies and measures to projections in 2010

Germany United Kingdom Italy France Spain Netherlands Greece Belgium Portugal Finland Austria Sw eden Denmark Ireland Luxembourg 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
With Additional Measures scenario
MtCO2-eq. With existing measures scenario
Without Measures scenario
Figure 90 EU-15 Projected annual greenhouse gas emission savings from policies and measures in 2010
120
40.9
100
Carbon saving (MtCO2-eq.)
80
60
16.5
40
25.4
73.4 61.2
20
14.4 24.6 16.4 12.4 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3 31.6 25.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
0.0
Ita ly Lu xe m bo ur g N et he rl a nd s
G er m an y
With existing measures
With additional measures
U ni te
Ki ng do m
la nd
ga l
Be lg iu m
en m ar k
G re ec e
Au st ria
Fr an ce
Po rtu
Fi n
Ire
Sp ai n
Sw
ed en
la nd
Source:
See Sources of Information (Chapter 7). Details on individual Member States can be found in Table 4 of the Country Profiles (Annex 8).
105
A 2.2.3 Savings at sectoral level in the EU-15 Policiesandmeasuresintheenergysector(allenergyrelatedemissionsexcepttransport)are projectedtodeliverthemajorityofgreenhousegasemissionsavings(Figure91).Themajority ofthesemeasuresaretargetedatmovingtocleanerandmoreefficientenergyproductionand makingenergyusemoreefficient. Transportmeasuresareexpectedtodeliverthesecondhighestsavings,althoughthese droppedsignificantlycomparedto2007projectedsavings. Calculatedprojectedsavingsfromallsectorshavedecreasedby48%comparedtoreported savingspotentialsin2007,largelyduetoachangeinmethodologyforcollectingdataonpolicy savings.
Figure91providesanoverviewoftheestimatedeffectsofdomesticpoliciesandmeasuresontotal EU15greenhousegasemissionsineachofthemainsectors.NotallMemberStateshaveprovided asectoralbreakdownoftheirlatestprojections.TotalEU15savingsfromadditionalpoliciesand measuresarecalculatedtobe142MtCO2eq.throughdeductionofthewithmeasuresandwith additionalmeasuresprojections.Totalwithmeasuressavings(234MtCO2eq.)isverylikelytobe anunderestimateofsavingsfrompoliciesandmeasures(Figure91).IndeedonlyeightEU15 MemberStatesprovidedawithoutmeasuresprojectiontoenablethetopdowncalculationofthe effectofpolicies.Calculatedprojectedsavingsfromallsectorshavedecreasedby48%compared toreportedsavingspotentialsin2007.

Figure 91 EU-15 Projected annual greenhouse gas emission savings by sector in 2010
250
78.7 200
Carbon saving (Mt CO2-eq.)
150
100
44.3
129.6 50 9.9 6.5 39.0 0 36.6 2.8 9.6 15.5 3.9
Energy excluding transport
Transport
Industrial processes
Waste
Agriculture
Cross-sectoral
Existing policies and measures
Note:
Projected savings from policies and measures in 2010 are estimated by comparison with a hypothetical reference case in which no measures were implemented since the base year.
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Policiesandmeasuresintheenergysector(allenergyrelatedemissionsexcepttransport)account for55%ofthetotalsavingsfromimplementeddomesticmeasuresand55%oftheplanned domesticmeasuressavingsfortheEU15asawhole(comparedto56%and47%respectivelyin 2007).Thehighcontributionofthissectorisbecausethemajorityofbothimplementedand plannedpoliciesandmeasuresaretargetedatmovingtocleanerandmoreefficientenergy productionormakingenergyusemoreefficient. Transportmeasuresareexpectedtodeliverthesecondhighestsavings,followedcloselybythe effectofmeasuresonindustrialprocessesandthoseintheagriculturesector.Astransportisthe mostrapidlygrowingsourceofgreenhousegases,themeasuresimplementedandplannedby MemberStatesonlygoasmallwaytoaddressingthisandprovide17%and31%ofthetotal savingsfromimplementedandplannedpoliciesandmeasuresrespectively.Thisisslightlygreater than2007,wheretheshareofsavings,particularlyfromplannedtransportpolicies,wasless significantat18%and29%ofthetotalprojectedsavings.Mostprojectedsavingsfrom implementedtransportpoliciescanbeattributedtoGermanyandSpain.France,Italyandthe UnitedKingdomshowsignificantdecreasescomparedto2007,largelyduetothechangein methodology. In2007,thevastmajorityofprojectedsavingsfromindustrialprocessescamefrommeasuresin Austria,France,SpainandItaly.In2008,theonlysignificantreductionscomefromGermanyand Spain.Finally,savingsfrommeasuresinthewastesectorareexpectedtobesmallovertheperiod from20082012.Projectedsavingsfromthewastesectorhavedecreasedby75%comparedto reportedsavingspotentialsin2007,largelyduetothechangeinmethodologyforestimatingpolicy savingsandthefactthatFranceandGermanydidnotshowreductionsinthesectorthisyear.In fact,Germanydidnotprovideasectoralbreakdownofprojectionsforthewastesector. Comparingtheresultsbetween2008and2007findingsrevealsthat: Reportedemissionssavingsfromexistingpoliciesandmeasureshavefallenby58%compared to2007andreportedemissionssavingsfromadditionalpoliciesandmeasureshavefallenby 14%comparedto2007; thesavingsfromtheenergysector(excludingtransport)havedecreasedby185Mtforexisting policiesandmeasures,andincreasedby1Mtforadditionalpoliciesandmeasurescompared to2007; savingsinthetransportsectorroseby2Mtforexistingpoliciesanddecreasedby8Mtfor plannedpoliciesbetween2006and2007;however,between2007and2008,savingsforexisting policiesdecreasedby61Mtforexistingpoliciesandby4Mtforplannedpolicies; projectedsavingsintheindustrialprocesses,wasteandagriculturesectorshavesubstantially decreased(by67Mtintotal),ashavecrosssectoralsavings(by64Mt)asexpectedsavings frommeasuressuchasEUETShavenotbeencapturedinthetopdownmethodologyforthe NetherlandsortheUnitedKingdomin2008.
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A 2.3 Main savings from existing and additional domestic policies and measures in the EU-12 A 2.3.1 Savings from PAMs as estimated by EU-12 Member States EU12emissionsavingsin2010frompoliciesandmeasuresareprojectedtototal157MtCO2 eq.with31%(49MtCO2eq.)ofthissavingprojectedtocomefromadditionalmeasures. ThegreatestabsolutesavingsareprojectedtooccurinPoland,RomaniaandBulgaria(asin 2007).
EU12MemberStatesarealsorequiredtoprovideinformationonthepoliciesandmeasures (PAM)includedintheirwithmeasuresandwithadditionalmeasuresprojections,with quantitativeestimatesoftheeffectofPAMsonemissionsbysourcesandremovalsbysinksof greenhousegasesbetweenthebaseyearandsubsequentyears,including2005,2010and2015(30). Figure92illustratesexpectedemissionsavingsfromexistingandplannedPAMsforeachofthe EU12MemberStates.EU12emissionsavingsin2010fromPAMsareprojectedtototal 157MtCO2eq.with31%(49MtCO2eq.)ofthissavingprojectedtocomefrommeasuresnotyet implementedoradopted(additionalmeasures).Thegreatestabsolutesavingsareprojectedto occurinPoland,RomaniaandBulgaria. Figure93displays2010projectionsunderwithmeasures,withadditionalmeasures(whereone exists)andwithoutmeasuresscenarios.
Figure 92 EU-12 Projected annual greenhouse gas emission savings from policies and measures in 2010
120
24.7
100
80
60
40
84.4
20
6.9
7.8 1.6 6.8 Waste 4.0 4.6 Agriculture 3.6 3.7 Industrial processes 5.9 Cross-sectoral
3.1 Energy excluding transport Transport
Source:
See Sources of Information (Chapter 7). Details on individual Member States can be found in Table 4 of the Country Profiles (Annex 8).
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Figure 93 Contribution of policies and measures in EU-12 to projections in 2010
Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
With Additional Measures scenario
Without Measures scenario
A 2.3.2 Savings at sectoral level in the EU-12 Policiesandmeasuresintheenergysector(includingtransport)areprojectedtoprovidebyfar thebiggestsavingsintheEU12,with81%ofsavingsfromexistingmeasurescomingfrom energypolicies.
Figure94providesanoverviewoftheestimatedeffectsofdomesticpoliciesandmeasuresontotal EU12greenhousegasemissionsineachofthemainsectors.Inthemajorityofcases,reportingwas splitbytheCRFsectors:energy,waste,agricultureandindustrialprocess.SevenoftheEU12 providedaTransportprojection.Fortheremainingfive,itisthereforeassumedthatenergy projectionsalsoincludetransportenergy. NotallMemberStateshaveprovidedasectoralbreakdownoftheirlatestprojectionsorquantified thesavingsbysectorfromallpoliciesandmeasures.TotalEU12savingsfromadditionalPAMs arecalculatedtobe49MtCO2eq.throughdeductionofthewithmeasuresandwithadditional measuresprojectionsandthisconcurswithFigure94.Totalwithmeasuressavingsdisplayedin Figure94(108MtCO2eq.)maybeanunderestimateofsavingsfromPAMs.Calculatedprojected savingsfromallsectorsfortheEU12asawholehaveincreasedby23MtCO2eq.comparedto reportedsavingspotentialsin2007fortheEU12.EightofthetwelveMemberStatesprovideda withoutmeasuresprojectionin2008toenablecalculationoftheeffectedofexistingmeasuresfor thoseMemberStates.
109
In2007,thetotalsavingspresentedfortheEU12weremorethanfivetimeslessthanthoseinthe EU15.In2008,totalsavingspresentedfortheEU12arejust2.6timeslessthanthoseintheEU15. Thisisdueaswitchinmethodologytouseprojectionsdatatocalculatetheeffectofpolicieswhich hassignificantlyreducedsavingspresentedfortheEU15. Policiesandmeasuresactingontheenergysector(includingtransport)providebyfarthebiggest savings,with81%ofsavingsfromexistingmeasurescomingfromenergypolicies.Savingsineach oftheremainingsectorsarelow,withagriculture,wasteandindustrialprocesseseach contributingasavingof9Mtorbelow.

Figure 94 EU-12 projected greenhouse gas emission savings by sector in 2010
120
24.7
100
80
60
40
84.4
20
6.9
7.8 1.6 6.8 Waste 4.0 4.6 Agriculture 3.6 3.7 Industrial processes
3.1 Energy excluding transport Transport
5.9 Cross-sectoral
Note:
Projected savings from policies and measures in 2010 are estimated by comparison with a hypothetical reference case in which no measures were implemented since the base year. Seven of the EU-12 provided a Transport projection. For the remaining five, it is therefore assumed that energy projections also include transport energy.
110
Accounting of carbon sinks
A3
A 3.1
Use of Kyoto mechanisms

FortheEU15,theprojecteduseofKyotomechanismsamountsto126.5MtCO2eq.per yearofthecommitmentperiod. Thisrepresentsapproximately28%ofthetotalrequiredemissionreductionfortheEU15 undertheKyotoProtocol,or3percentagepointsoftheEU15Kyototargetof8%. TheintendedacquisitionoftheseunitsthroughJI,CDMorinternationalemissionstrading representsaninvestmentofEUR1997millionforthewholefiveyearcommitmentperiod. Flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto protocol (Kyoto mechanisms)
Inadditiontodomesticmeasures,MemberStatesareallowedtomakeuseoftheflexible mechanismsundertheKyotoProtocol(Kyotomechanisms)toachievetheirEUKyotoorburden sharingtargetsbycontributingtoand/orbenefitingfromemissionreductionstakingplaceabroad. TheKyotoProtocoldefinesthreeflexibilitymechanismstolowertheoverallcostsofachievingits emissionstargets.ThesemechanismsenablePartiestoaccesscosteffectiveopportunitiestoreduce emissions,ortoremovecarbonfromtheatmosphere,inothercountries.Whilethecostoflimiting emissionsvariesconsiderablyfromregiontoregion,theeffectfortheatmosphereoflimiting emissionsisthesame,irrespectiveofwheretheactionistaken.Thissystemaimstobe economicallycosteffective,whileaddressingconcernsaboutenvironmentalintegrityandequity. ThethreeKyotomechanismsare(seemoredetaileddescriptionbelow): thecleandevelopmentmechanism(CDM), jointimplementation(JI), emissiontrading(31).
Domesticactions(asopposedtouseofthemechanisms)mustconstituteasignificantelementof theeffortsmadebyeachMemberStatetomeetitstargetundertheKyotoProtocol.Althoughno quantifiedproportionthatistobemetthroughdomesticactionwasset,MemberStatesmust demonstratethattheiruseofthemechanismsissupplementaltodomesticactiontoachievetheir targets. A 3.1.1 Joint implementation Jointimplementation(JI)isprovidedforunderArticle6oftheKyotoProtocol.Itenables industrialisedcountriestoworktogethertomeettheiremissiontargets.Acountrywithan emissionsreductiontargetcanmeetpartofthattargetthroughaprojectaimedatreducing emissionsinanysectorofanotherindustrialisedcountryseconomy.Anysuchprojectsneedto havetheapprovalofthecountriesinvolvedandmustresultinemissionreductionsthatwouldnot otherwisehaveoccurredintheabsenceoftheJIproject.Theuseofcarbonsinks(e.g.forestry projects)isalsopermittedunderJI.
(31) This type of emissions trading relates to trading of emissions between countries and should not be confused with the EU emission trading scheme (EU ETS), which concerns trading of emissions between installations.
111
A 3.1.2 Clean development mechanism

Article12oftheKyotoProtocolsetsoutacleandevelopmentmechanism(CDM).Thisissimilarto jointimplementation,butprojectactivitiesmustbehostedbyadevelopingcountry.AswithJI, CDMprojectsmustresultinreductionsthatareadditionaltothosethatwouldhavebeenachieved intheabsenceoftheproject.Theyalsohavetheadditionalaimofpromotingsustainable developmentinthehostdevelopingcountry.TheCDMissupervisedbyanExecutiveBoard, whichapprovesprojects.CDMprojectshavebeenabletogeneratecreditssinceJanuary2000and thesecanbebankedforuseduringthecurrentfirstcommitmentperiod(20082012).Therules governingCDMprojectsallowonlycertaintypesofsinksproject(afforestationandreforestation), andcountrieswillnotbeabletousecreditsgeneratedbynuclearpowerprojectstowardsmeeting theirKyototargets.Toencouragesmallscaleprojects,specialfasttrackproceduresareunder development.
A 3.1.3 Emissions trading

Article17oftheKyotoProtocolallowscountriesthatachieveemissionsreductionsoverandabove thoserequiredbytheirKyototargetstoselltheexcesstocountriesfindingitmoredifficultor expensivetomeettheircommitments.Inthisway,itseekstolowertheoverallcostsofcompliance. A 3.2 Projected emission reductions through Kyoto mechanisms
ThirteenMemberStatesupdatedorconfirmedinformationontheirintendeduseoftheKyoto mechanismsin2008throughaquestionnaireundertheECmechanismformonitoringCommunity greenhousegasemissionsandforimplementingtheKyotoProtocol(CouncilDecision 280/2004/EC).FortheremainingMemberStatespreviouslyprovidedinformationthroughthe questionnaireortheuseofKyotomechanismsasindicatedthesecondnationalallocationplant undertheETSDirective(2003/87/EC)wasused. ElevenMemberStateshavedecidedtousetheKyotomechanisms(Table3).Withtheexceptionof Slovenia,allofthecountriesbelongtotheEU15.ThecontributionofKyotomechanismsbythese countriesisconsideredfortheclosureofthegapsbetweengreenhousegasprojectionsand2010 targets.FortheEU15,theuseofKyotomechanismsamountsto126.5MtCO2eq.peryearofthe commitmentperiod.Thisamountcorrespondstoapprox.28%ofthetotalrequiredemission reductionfortheEU15of345MtCO2eq.peryearduringthefirstcommitmentperiodor3 percentagepointsoftheEU15Kyototargetof8%.InSlovenia,theexactamountofunitstobe boughtdependsontheactualdevelopmentofgreenhousegasemissions,especiallyinthe transportsector.
112
Table 3 Planned use of Kyoto mechanisms by EU Member States
Member State
Planned use of Kyoto mechanisms Yes Yes No No No Yes No Yes No No No No Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes No No Yes Yes No No Yes
Type of Kyoto mechanisms (ET, CDM, JI) JI, CDM, ET JI, CDM, ET JI, CDM, ET JI, CDM, ET JI, CDM, ET JI, CDM, ET JI, CDM, ET CDM, JI, ET JI, CDM, ET JI, CDM, ET JI, CDM, ET (JI, CDM) JI, CDM, ET
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Repub Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdo EU15
Notes:
a
Projected emission reduction 2008-12 through the use of Kyoto mechanisms [Mt CO2 equivalent per year] No 9.0 No 7.0 Yes a Not applicable ( ) Yes No 4.2 Yes No 1.4 Yes Yes Yes Yes No 3.6(b) No 20.7 Yes Yes No 3.6 to 4.3(c ) a Not applicable ( ) No 13.0 Yes No 5.8 Yes Yes No < 0.6(b) No 57.8 Yes (1.3)(d) Yes No 126.5 Achievement of Kyoto target planned through domestic action only
Budget [Mio ]
531 104 152 121 23 290 79 400 505 354 384 9 2951
Cyprus and Malta are non-Annex I Parties to the Kyoto Protocol and do not have an emissions target for the period 20082012. b The value depends on the actual development of emissions, especially in the transport sector. c The range results from different projection scenarios ('pessimistic' or 'optimistic') with respect to the transport sector, which represented about 55 % of Luxembourg's total greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 (excl. LULUCF) d Sweden intends to achieve its Kyoto target without the use of flexible mechanisms but has made the necessary preparations to use them if necessary. Sweden intends to acquire 1.3 Mt CO2-eq/yr through the Swedish CDM and JI programme. This figure has not been considered in the target assessment for Sweden and the EU-15. The exchange rate US$ per Euro was assumed to be 1.5.
Source: Questionnaires submitted under the EC greenhouse gas Monitoring Mechanism; European Commission Decisions on the second national allocation plans under the EU ETS; Second national allocation plans by countries.
113
A 3.3 Allocated budgets
TwelveMemberStatesallocatedresourcesfortheuseofKyotomechanisms.Outoftheseonly GermanyandSwedendonotintendtousetheunitsformeetingtheirKyototargets.TheGerman governmentdecidedtosupportprototypefundstoassisttheestablishmentofacarbonmarket. SwedenhasnotyetmadeafinaldecisionontheuseofKyotomechanismsbutprojectstoachieve itstargetthroughdomesticactionalone.Austria,Luxembourg,theNetherlands,Portugaland Spainallocatedthelargestbudgets(EUR399,EUR531,EUR505,EUR354andEUR384million, respectively,forthefiveyearcommitmentperiod).InSlovenia,thebudgethasnotyetbeen decidedbecausethequantityofallowancestobeboughtisstillunknown. TogetherthetwelvecountriesdecidedtoinvestEUR2951millionfortheacquisitionofallowances throughJI,CDMorinternationalemissionstradingforthewholefiveyearcommitmentperiod. A 3.4 Type of projects
Table4givesanoverviewonthetypeandsizeofCDMandJIprojects.Itisbasedonthe UNEP/RisoeCDM/JIpipeline,whichincludesallprojectsthathavereachedthepublic commentingperiodduringprojectdevelopment.Overall3458projectsareexpectedtodeliver2 822MtCO2eq.untiltheendofthefirstcommitmentperiodundertheKyotoProtocol.Thelargest shareofCERSandERUswillbegeneratedfromprojectsreducingnonCO2gases.Thisismainly dueto: highglobalwarmingpotential(32)fornonCO2gases(CH4:21,N2O:310;HFC23:11700), pointsourceswithlargeemissions,and lowabatementcosts.
TwentyoneprojectsforthedestructionofHFC23,abyproductofHCFC22production,are expectedtogenerate18%oftheoverallemissionallowancesfromprojectbasedmechanisms.The secondlargestsourceforemissionreductionsare867hydroprojects,whichcontributewith14% totheoverallquantityofemissionallowances,followedby71projectsabatingN2Oand contributing10%tooverallemissionsallowances.Theuseorflaringofmethanefromcoalbeds andmines,fugitiveemissionsfromoilandgasinstallationsandlandfillscontributewithanother 21%oftheoverallexpectedquantityofemissionreductions.Projectstargetingenergyefficiencyin owngeneration,fossilfuelswitch,biomassenergyandrenewableenergyfromwindreduce emissionsofCO2andhaveasharebetween69%each.
(32) The global warming potential is used to convert emissions of different greenhouse gases with different warming effects into the unit CO2 equivalent, which is the global warming effect of one tonne of carbon dioxide.
114
Table 4 Overview on CDM and JI projects by project type

All CDM projects Number of projects Type Afforestation Agriculture Biogas Biomass energy Cement CO2 capture Coal bed/mine metha Energy distribution EE households EE industry EE own generation EE service EE supply side Fossil fuel switch Fugitive Geothermal HFCs Hydro Landfill gas N2 O PFCs Reforestation Solar Tidal Transport Wind Total Projects 4 172 221 528 35 1 51 4 9 149 293 6 32 114 26 12 19 861 267 59 2 14 17 1 6 421 3 324 Reduction until 2012 [Mt CO2 eq] 1.9 43.5 54.0 172.3 34.9 0.0 121.7 1.1 1.4 30.1 247.5 0.3 23.9 185.2 60.4 13.6 501.2 381.4 249.7 254.5 0.6 5.0 2.2 1.1 3.5 181.1 2 571.9 All JI projects Number of projects Projects 0 0 1 13 1 1 13 3 0 8 1 0 11 8 30 0 2 6 12 12 1 0 0 0 0 11 134 Reduction until 2012 [Mt CO2 eq] 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.9 1.0 1.1 46.6 1.4 0.0 15.8 7.8 0.0 9.1 9.5 86.9 0.0 5.8 1.7 9.5 40.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 249.7 Number of projects Projects 4 172 222 541 36 2 64 7 9 157 294 6 43 122 56 12 21 867 279 71 3 14 17 1 6 432 3 458 CDM & JI Reduction until 2012 [Mt CO2 eq] 1.9 43.5 54.7 177.2 36.0 1.1 168.3 2.5 1.4 45.9 255.3 0.3 32.9 194.7 147.4 13.6 507.0 383.1 259.2 295.3 1.8 5.0 2.2 1.1 3.5 187.0 2 821.7 Share [%] 0% 2% 2% 6% 1% 0% 6% 0% 0% 2% 9% 0% 1% 7% 5% 0% 18% 14% 9% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 100% units/project 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.6 2.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.8 1.6 2.6 1.1 24.1 0.4 0.9 4.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.8
Notes:EE:energyefficiency The table includes all projects that have reached the validation stage (CDM) or the determination stage (JI). Not all of these projects will be realised and the actual reduction of greenhouse gases might differ from the expected reduction included in the project description. Source:UNEP Risoe CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database, May 2008.
Twelveprojecttypeshaveaverageemissionreductionsoflessthan500ktCO2eq.untiltheendof 2012(seeTable5);atotalof2448projects(71%)belongtothesesectorsandareexpectedtodeliver 905MtCO2eq.(32%).Fiveprojecttypeshaveaverageemissionreductionsabove1.5MtCO2eq. untiltheendof2012;334(10%)installationsbelongtotheseprojecttypesandareexpectedto deliver1313MtCO2eq.(47%)ofallprojectbasedcredits.
115
Table 5 Number of projects and total amount of emission allowances by average project size
Average emission allowances per project less than 500 kt CO2 eq. between 500 kt CO2 eq. and 1.5 Mt CO2 eq. more than 1.5 Mt CO2 eq. Total Number of projects 2 448 Share in total number of projects 71% Total emission allowances 905 Share of total emission allowances 32%
676
20%
604
21%
334 3 458
10% 100 %
1 313 2 822
47% 100 %
Notes:The table includes all projects that have reached the validation stage (CDM) or the determination stage (JI). Not all of these projects will be realised and the actual reduction of greenhouse gases might differ from the expected reduction included in the project description. Source:UNEP Risoe CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database, May 2008
A 3.5 Host regions for CDM projects
TheCleanDevelopmentMechanismdoesnotonlyintendtohelpAnnexIPartiesinachieving theirreductionobligationsbutalsotosupportsustainabledevelopmentinnonAnnexIParties. ProjectsinthelargeadvanceddevelopingcountriesBrazil,ChinaandIndiatogethergenerate75% ofthetotalCERs(Figure95).SubSaharanAfricaonlyhosts1%ofallprojectsgenerating3%of totalCERs.Themainreasonforthisunevendistributionisthatthelargestandmostcostefficient projectsarethosewhichreduceemissionsofindustrialgases,especiallyHFC23andN2O.Mostof theleastdevelopedcountriesdonothaveindustrialinstallationsemittingthesegasesandare thereforenotabletoprofitfromtheCDMasmuchasadvanceddevelopingcountries. Thisrelationshipisalsoreflectedifpopulationsizeistakenintoaccount.ProjectsinSubSaharan Africawillgeneratelessthan0.1CERs/capitauntil2012,inChinaandBrazilabout1CER/capita (Table6).ThesevaluesshowthattheCDMcanonlybeonebuildingblockofasustainable developmentstrategyofacountry.AssumingaCERpriceofEUR10andthattheexpectedCERs aregeneratedforafiveyearperiod,theCDMleadstoatransferoffundsintheorderofEUR0.20 peryearandpersoninSubSaharanAfricaandEUR2.00inChina.
116
Figure 95 Host regions for CDM projects by share of expected CERs until 2012
Asia & Pacific (other) 11% Europe and Central Asia 1% India 15% Sub-Saharan Africa 3% North Africa & MiddleEast 2%
Latin America (other) 8% Brasil 7%
China 53%
Source:UNEP Risoe CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database, May 2008

Table 6 Overview on CDM projects by region
Total in CDM Pipeline Number of projects Projects 689 277 2 494 1 173 914 36 46 59 3 324 Share [%] 21% 8% 75% 35% 27% 1% 1% 2% 100% Reduction until 2012 [kt CO2 eq] 389 605 175 684 2 046 014 1 377 502 380 454 18 027 65 835 52 462 2 571 944 Share [%] 15% 7% 80% 54% 15% 1% 3% 2% 100% Population million 559 192 3 529 1 330 1 148 149 752 278 5 266 Reduction until 2012 [t CO2 eq per capita] 0.70 0.92 0.58 1.04 0.33 0.12 0.09 0.19 0.49
Latin America Brasil Asia & Pacific China India Europe and Central Asia Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa & Middle-East Total
Source: UNEP Risoe CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database, May 2008; CIA online world fact book, May 2008
A 3.6 Host regions for JI projects
ERUsexpectedtobegeneratedinJIprojectsuntil2012arebyandlargehostedbyRussiaandthe Ukraine(89%)within98projects(73%ofallJIprojects).Table7depictsthedistributionofJI projectsandERUsamonghostcountries. WithintheEuropeanUnion,thedistributionofERUsamonghostregionsismorebalanced(see Figure96).ThelargestshareofEUhostedERUswillbeallocatedtoPoland(29%ofEUhosted ERUs)within7projects.Bulgariahasalargernumberofprojects(7)butaccountsforasmaller shareofERUs(11%).GermanyistheonlyEU15memberstatethathostsJIprojectsbuttoa relativelysmallextent(17%ofEUgeneratedERUs).

Onapercapitabasis,ERUsexpectedtobegenerateduntil2012inRussiaandtheUkrainearestill morethantwiceashigh(at1.2ERUs/cap)asitisthecasefor,forexample,Bulgaria(0.4ERUs/cap). OnlyLithuaniaandEstonia,twoofthesmallercountriesintermsofpopulation,areexpectedto hostahigherpercapitalevelofERUs(1.8ERU/capforLithuania,followedbyEstoniaat 0.85ERUs/capitathesmallestcountrywithapopulationofonlyalittlemorethan1million people).

Table 7 Overview on JI projects by region
Total in JI Pipeline Number of projects Share Reduction until 2012 [kt CO2 eq] Share Population Reduction until 2012 [t CO2 eq per capita] 1.19 0.22 0.41 0.02 0.15 0.20 0.06 0.85 0.01 1.80 0.01 0.06 0.06 0.41
Projects
[%]
[%]
million
Russia & Ukraine Eastern Europe Bulgaria Czech Republic Romania Poland Hungary Estonia Latvia Lithuania Slovakia Others Germany Total
98 34 9 1 3 7 2 3 1 7 1 2 2 134
73% 25% 7% 1% 2% 5% 1% 2% 1% 5% 1% 1% 1% 100%
222 670 22 480 3012 167 3243 7818 603 1115 27 6432 63 4 579 4 579 249 729
89% 9% 1% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 2% 2% 100%
187 101 7 10 22 39 10 1 2 4 5 82 82 5 266
Source: UNEP Risoe CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database, May 2008; CIA online world fact book, May 2008
Figure 96 EU host regions for JI projects by share of expected ERUs until 2012
Eastern Europe (other) 3% Germany 17% Lithuania 24%
Bulgaria 11%
Estonia 4% Romania 12%
Poland 29%
Source: UNEP Risoe CDM/JI Pipeline Analysis and Database, May 2008
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A 4 Accounting of carbon sinks

ActivitiesunderArt.3.3and3.4inEU15MemberStatesareprojectedtoreduceemissionsby 57.5MtCO2peryearofthecommitmentperiodandby5.9MtCO2peryearofthecommitment periodinEU12MemberStates. Thisisequivalentto17%oftheEU15reductioncommitmentof341MtCO2peryearofthe commitmentperiodcomparedtobaseyearemissions,or1.3%percentagepointsoftheEU15 Kyototargetof8%. Carbon sinks under the Kyoto Protocol
A 4.1
Inadditiontoreducingorlimitingemissionsofgreenhousegases,MemberStatescanmakeuseof CO2removalsbylandusechangeandforestry(LUCF)activities,orcarbonsinksundertheKyoto ProtocoltoachievetheirUNFCCCandEUburdensharingtargets.Thesecarbonsinksinclude: mandatoryactivitiescoveredbyArticle3.3oftheProtocol(afforestation,reforestationand deforestation), voluntaryactivitiesunderArticle3.4(forestmanagement,croplandmanagement,grazing landmanagementandrevegetation).
TherulesabouthowcarbonsinksareaccountedforundertheKyotoProtocolaredescribedin Articles3.3and3.4andintheUNFCCCMarrakechAccords(2001). A 4.1.1 Article 3.3 activities Article3.3describeshownetchangesingreenhousegasemissionsbysourcesandremovalsby sinksresultingfromcertainlandusechangeandforestryactivitiesareaccountedforinmeeting theKyotoProtocoltargets.Theseactivitiesaredefinedasdirecthumaninducedlandusechange andforestryactivities,limitedtoafforestation,reforestationanddeforestation(ARD)since1990. A 4.1.2 Article 3.4 activities Article3.4identifiesadditionalhumaninducedactivitiesrelatedtochangesingreenhousegas emissionsbysourcesandremovalsbysinksintheagriculturalsoilsandotherlandusechangeand forestrycategories,whichacountrymaychoosetouseinordertomeetitsKyotoProtocoltarget. IntheMarrakechAccords,activitiesunderthisArticleweredefinedasforestmanagement, croplandmanagement,grazinglandmanagementandrevegetation.TheextenttowhichParties canaccountforemissionsandremovalsfromforestmanagementislimitedbyacappingsystem.
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A 4.2 Information from Member States on the use of carbon sinks
MemberStatesareaskedtovoluntarilysubmitaquestionnaireontheirprojectedestimatesof annualnetcarbonstockchangesunderArticle3.3and3.4duringthefirstcommitmentperiodof theKyotoProtocoltotheCommission.In2008,tenMemberStatessubmittedupdatedestimates whileinformationfortenadditionalcountrieshadbeensubmittedinthepreviousyears(Table8). SevenMemberStateshaveneversubmittedthevoluntaryquestionnaire. FinlandandSwedenexpectadditionalemissionsfromactivitiesunderArticle3.3(afforestation, reforestationanddeforestation)duringthecommitmentperiod.CzechRepublic,Denmark,France, Greece,Ireland,Italy,theNetherlands,Poland,Portugal,SlovakRepublic,Slovenia,Spainand UnitedKingdomestimatenetsequestrationeffectsfromtheseactivities. AllEUMemberStatesthatareAnnexIPartiesundertheKyotoProtocolhavesubmittedtheir initialreportundertheKyotoProtocol,inwhichtheyreportonwhichactivitiesunderArt.3.4they elected: A 4.3 Findings from the review of the initial report under the Kyoto Protocol eightMemberStatesdecidednottoelectanyactivitiesunderArt.3.4, 17MemberStateselectedforestmanagement, threeMemberStateselectedcroplandmanagement, twoMemberStateselectedgrazinglandmanagement. oneMemberStateelectedrevegetation.
AspartoftheirnationalsystemfortheestimationofanthropogenicGHGemissionsbysources andremovalsbysinksPartiestotheKyotoProtocolneedtodemonstratethattheyarecapableto complywiththemonitoringandreportingrequirementsfortheelectedactivitiesunderArticle3.4. Specifically,Partiesneedtobeabletomonitorthehumaninducedcarbonstockchangessince1990 fortheelectedactivitiesandlandareas.Theselandareasneedtobeindividuallyidentifiedand emissions/removalsneedtobereportedforallfuturecommitmentperiodsonceanactivityis elected. DuringthereviewoftheinitialreportundertheKyotoProtocol,theexpertreviewteams(ERT) identifiedtheneedtofurtherimprovethereportingsystemineightoutofthe17MemberStates whichelectedoneormoreactivitiesunderArticle3.4.TheERTcriticisedtheinsufficient capabilitiestoidentifylandareasinGreece,Hungary,LatviaandRomania;inItalyandSpainthe legal,proceduralandinstitutionalarrangementsincludingthelanduseclassificationwereseenas insufficient.TheERTalsoidentifiedthelackofanaccountingsystemintheFrenchoverseas territoryGuyanaandthelackofamethodologytoapplynationaldatatotheIPCCgoodpractice guidanceforLULUCF.Romaniawasremindedthatitneedstoaccountforrevegetationinthebase yearaswellasduringthecommitmentperiod.WiththeexceptionofGreece,noneofidentified issuesledtoquestionsofimplementationbuttheMemberStateswererecommendedtoaddress thepointsintheirnextinventorysubmission.
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A 4.4 Use of sinks for achieving the EU Kyoto target
Sofar,atotalnetsequestrationofabout23.9MtCO2peryearofthecommitmentperiodfrom afforestationandreforestationactivities(underArticle3.3oftheKyotoProtocol)hasbeen identifiedbyEU15MemberStatesandanadditionalsequestrationof0.4MtCO2peryearby Slovenia. TheuseofactivitiesunderArticle3.4isprojectedtocontributeanother25.7MtCO2peryearofthe commitmentperiodintheEU15;inaddition;CzechRepublic,PolandandSloveniaexpecta removalof5.5MtCO2peryearofthecommitmentperiod.Thesefigurestakethemaximum allowanceforforestmanagementintoaccountbutdonotincludeSpainduetothelackofdetailed data. TogetherwiththeSpanishaggregateallactivitiesunderArt.3.3and3.4inEU15MemberStates areprojectedtoreduceemissionsby57.5MtCO2peryearofthecommitmentperiod;Czech Republic,PolandandSloveniaexpectanadditionalreductionof5.9MtCO2peryearofthe commitmentperiod.ForEU15,thisisequivalentto17%oftheEU15reductioncommitmentof 341MtCO2peryearofthecommitmentperiodcomparedtobaseyearemissions.
Table 8 Projected net carbon stock changes under Articles 3.3 and 3.4 for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol
Article 3.3 Net carbon stock change during 20082012 [Mt CO2 per year] 0.7 No estimates available Not reported Not reported Probably small sink 0.262 No estimates available + 1.9 to + 2.4 0.84 No estimates available 0.90 Not reported 2.07 15.1 Not reported No estimates available Not reported Not reported 0.11 Net sink 3.36 Not reported Net sink 0.36 Election of activitiesa Article 3.4 Net carbon stock change during 20082012 [Mt CO2 per year] n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Likely larger than max. allowance FM: 0.18 CM: 1.82 n.a. 2.5 to 3.0 67.63 7.3 2 to 4 Not reported n.a. 10.2 Not reported No estimates available n.a. n.a. n.a. Likely larger than max. allowance FM: 0.8 CM & GM: 0.5 Not reported n.a. 1.32 Total Maximum Accountable allowance for effect of Art. 3.3 forest and 3.4 management [Mt CO2 per year] [Mt CO2 per year] n.a. 0.7 n.a. n.e. n.a. n.a. 1.17 0.18 n.a. 0.59 3.23 4.55 0.33 1.06 n.a. 10.19 1.25 1.03 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.01 0.81 4.03 n.a. 1.32 n.e. n.e. 1.2 2.3 n.e. 0.6 4.1 4.5 1.2 n.e. 2.1 25.3 n.e. n.e. n.e. n.e. 0.1 3.0 4.7 n.e. n.e. 1.7
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia
None None None n.a. FM FM, CM, GM None FM FM FM FM FM None FM FM FM None n.a. None FM FM, CM, GM FM, Revegetation None FM
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Spainc Sweden United Kingdom EU-15d EU-27 Not estimated separately Probably small net debit 2.68 23.87 24.23 FM, CM FM FM Not estimated separately Likely larger than max. allowance 1.69 25.68 31.17 2.46 2.13 1.36 5.8 2.1 4.0 57.5 63.4
Notes: Consistent with the reporting of emission inventories a negative sign '-' is used for removals and a positive sign '+' for emissions; n.a.: not applicable; n.e.: not estimated. a FM: forest management; CM: cropland management; GM: grazing-land management. b In addition to accounting for forest management up to the maximum allowance Parties may account for removals from forest management to compensate net emissions under Art. 3.3. In Finland, removals from forest management are projected to exceed the sum of emissions under Art. 3.3. and the maximum allowance for forest management. c Spain only estimated the aggregated reductions of Articles 3.3 and 3.4 together. d The individual sums for Art. 3.3 and 3.4 do not include the Spanish estimate. Source: Questionnaires submitted by EU Member States; The European Community's initial report under the Kyoto Protocol (EEA Technical report No 10/2006); Initial reports under the Kyoto Protocol of Greece and Romania; Decisions 16/CMP.1 and 8/CMP.2 of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.
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The reporting scheme
A 5 The reporting scheme

A 5.1 Greenhouse gas inventories (19902006)
Forthepreparationofthisreport,EU27greenhousegasinventoriesascompiledundertheEU monitoringmechanismandsubmittedbytheEuropeanCommissiontotheUNFCCC(May2008) havebeenused(EEA,2008a).AllMemberStatesreporteddatafor2006.Dataavailabilityhas improvedoverpreviousyears.Table9showsdatagapsfortheEU27MemberStatesbyMay2008. Forthefirsttime,allEU15MemberStatesreportedcompleteinventoriesintime.Thereportingof greenhousegasinventorieshasimprovedsignificantlyasdatafromsixMemberStates(CY,EE, LT.LU,MT,andPL)weremissingin2006.

Table 9
Member State Cyprus Estonia Malta 19902006
Gaps in reporting for the EU-27 Member States

CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs 19902006 19902006 19902006 19902006 SF6 19902006
MemberStateswheregapfillinghastobeappliedhavetheopportunitytoprovidefeedbackand incorporatetheestimatesintheirnationalsubmissions.Thefollowinggeneralapproachesand countryspecificmethodsforgapfillingwereused(seeEEA,2008a).

Estimates at the beginning or at the end of a time series Fuel combustion related GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O of sector 1A): The percentage change from Eurostat CO2 emission estimates was used for extrapolation, where available If there were no Eurostat CO2 emission estimates available linear trend extrapolation was used. Other sectors: Linear trend extrapolation was used, where no striking dips or jumps in the time series were identified. In general the trend extrapolation was made on basis of the time series 2000-2004. Previous year values were used where striking dips or jumps in the time series were identified. Estimates for years within a time series Linear interpolation between the years available was used Estimates if no time series is available (only relevant for fluorinated gases): HFCs:
Emissions were estimated for 2F1 'Refrigeration and air conditioning equipment' on basis of average per capita emissions of either a set of similar countries (if available) or on basis of one single country (if a set of similar countries was not available). Population data was used from Eurostat. PFCs: It was checked if aluminum production occurs in the relevant countries, which was not the case. For other PFC emissions no estimates were prepared because of lack of data. SF6: Emissions were estimated for 2F7 'Electrical equipment' on basis of average emissions per electricity consumption of either a set of similar countries (if available) or on basis of one single country (if a set of similar countries was not available). Data on electricity consumption was used from Eurostat.
Malta HFC Emissions estimated on basis of average per capita emissions of ES, GR, IT and PT for 2F1 'Refrigeration and air conditioning equipment' for 19902006 SF6 Emissions estimated on basis of average emissions per electricity consumption of ES, GR, IT and PT for 2F8 'Electrical equipment' for 1990-2005 and extrapolated to 2006
DataonCO2,CH4andN2Oemissionsusedinthisreportdonotincludeemissionsandremovals fromlandusechangeandforestry. InordertosupporttheevaluationofprogresstowardsfulfillingtheKyototargets,theEUMember StatesarerequiredtoreporttotheEuropeanCommissioninformationonindicatorsasoutlinedin CouncilDecision280/2004/EC(Art.3(1)(j))andCommissionDecision2005/166/EC(AnnexII).The MemberStatesubmissionsarecheckedforcompleteness,consistencywithCRFdata, recalculations,consistencyoftimeseriesandarecomparedacrosscountries.Table10shows submissiondataandavailabilityofinformationonindicatorsfortheEU27MemberStates.Two MemberStatesdidnotreportanyindicators(GreeceandMalta)andoneMemberState(Romania) onlyreportedpriorityIndicators.OnlyFinland,ItalyandLithuaniareportedallindicators. ConcerningInconsistencywithCRFdatathemainproblemswerereportingunderthewrong sourcecategoryandconfusionofCO2andCO2equivalents.Thedifferencebetweendatareported indifferentyearscanbeeitherduetorecalculations(e.g.improvementofmethodology)oritcan beduetomistakesinthereporting.Thus,MemberStateswerequestionedforreasonsforallhigh recalculations.Thehighestrecalculationswerefoundforindicatorsconcerningenergy transformationandindustry.
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The reporting scheme Table 10 Reporting on indicators under the EC greenhouse gas Monitoring Mechanism
Member State Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Priority Indicators all (1990-2006) all (2005- 2006) all except N 3 (2006) all (2005-2006) N 1,2,6 (1995-2006), N 4,5,7 (1990-206) all (2004-2006) Additional Priority Indicators all (1990-2006) all (2005- 2006) all (2006) N 1,2,3,5 (2005-2006) N 4, 5, 6, 9, 10,11,12,14,15 all except N 8,9,10,11 (20052006) Supplementary Priority Indicators all except N 8 (1990-2006)
Cyprus Denmark
N 1(2003-2005), N 3, 4,5, N 4, 5, 6, 9, 11,12, 14, 15 (19906 (1990-2006) 2006), N 10 (2003-2006) all (2004-2006) all except N 13 (2004-2006)
Estonia Finland
N 1, 2, 4, 6 (1993-2006), N 5 1994-2006, N 7 N 2,3,4 (1995-2006), N 6 N 3, 5, 6 (1995-2006), N 4, 11, (1990-2006) (1990-2006) 12, 13, 14, 15 (1990-2006) all (1990-2006) all (1990-2006) all (1990-2006) N 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12,13,14,15 (1990-2006); 9 and 10 for (2000-2005) N 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12,13, 14,15 (1990-2006), N 7 (1993, 1998, 2002), N 5 and 6 for (19912005) N 9,10,11,12,14,15 (2003-2006), N 5,6 (1995-2006), N 3 (20032004), N 7,13 (2004-2005)
France
all (1990-2006)
all (1990-2006)
Germany Greece
N 1, 2 (1991-2006), N 3, 7 (1990-2006), N 4, 6 (1991- 2005), N 5 (1993, N 1, 5, 6 (1990-2006), N 2002) 2, 3, 4 (1991-2005) N 1,2 (1991-2006), N 4,6 N 1,5,6 (2003-2006); N 2,3,4 (1995-2006) (1995-2006), N 3,7 (2003-2006), N 5 (1990,2000,2003-2006) N 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 (19902006), N 4 (1997-2006), N 6 (1995-2006) all (1990-2006) N 1, 2, 4, 6 (1995-2006) N 5, 7 (1990-2006) all (2004-2006) N 1, 2, 4, 6 (1995-2006) N 7 (1990-2006), N 5 (1995-2005) N 1 (1990-2006), N 3 (1995-2006)
Hungary
Ireland Italy
N 1, 2, 4, 7, 9, 11, 12, 14,15 (1990-2006), N 5, 6 (1995-2006) all (1990-2006) N 5, 6 (1990-2006), N 2, 3, 4 (1995-2005) all (2004-2006) all (1990-2006) N 1, 4, 7, 9, 11, 12, 14, 15 (19902006), N 5, 6 (1995-2005) all (2004-2006) N 4, 9, 11, 13 (1990-2006), N 5, 6 1995-2006), N 12,14,15 (19952005) N 1, 2, 3, 4, 12, 13, 14, 15 (19902006), N 9, 10 (1995-2006) N 4, 9, 10, 11, 12,13,14,15 (2006) N 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 12, 13, 14, 15 (1990-2006), N 5, 6, 9, 10, 11 (1990-2005)
Latvia Lithuania
Luxembourg Malta
N 2, 3 (1995-2006), N 5 (1990-2006) N 1, 2, 3, 5 (1990-2006)
Netherlands Poland
N 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (19902006), N 7 (1995-2006) N 5 (2006) N 1, 5, 6 (2006)
Portugal Romania
N 1, 2, 3, 5 (1990-2006), N 1, 6, 5 (1990-2006), N N 4, 6, 7 (1990-2005) 2, 3, 4 (1990-2005)
all (2006) N 1, 2 (1994-2006), N 4 N 1, 5, 6 (1990-2006), N N 1, 2, 3, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15 (1990(1997-2006), N 3, 7 2, 3, 4 (1995-2006) 2006), N 4 (1993-2006), N 5, 6 (1990-2006), N 6 (1995(1995-2006), N 7 (1999-2006) 2006), N 5 (1991, 1996, 1998-2006) N 3 (1990-2006), N 1, 2, N 1, 2, 13 (1990-2006); N N 1, 2, 13 (1990-2006), N 4, 9, 4, 6 (1995-2006), N 5, 7 2, 3 (1995-2006), N 4, 6 10, 11, 12, 14, 15 (2003-2006), N (2003-2006) (2003-2006) 5, 6 (1995-2006) N 1, 2, 4, 6 (1995-2006), N 1, 2, 4, 13 (1990-2006), N 5, 6 N 3, 5 (1990-2006), N 7 N 1 (1990-2006), N 2, 3, 4 (1995-2006), N 9, 10, 12, 14, 15 (1990-2005) (1995-2006) (1990-2005) all (2006) all (1990-2006) all (2006) N 1, 2, 3 (1990-2006) N 1, 2, 3, 4, 12, 14, 15 (19902006), N 5, 6 (1992-2006)
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain Sweden United Kingdom
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A 5.2
Greenhouse gas emission projections (2010)
ByMarch15th2007,MemberStateswererequiredtoreportinformationonpoliciesandprojections undertheMonitoringMechanism(DecisionNo280/2004/ECandbyCommissionDecision 2005/166/EC),thisinformationrequiredeverysecondyear.In2007eightMemberStatessubmitted ontime.BytheendofMay2007,19EUMemberStatesandoneEEAmembercountry(Norway) hadsubmittedinformation.Sincethen,13MemberStatesandNorwayhavesubmittednewor updatedinformationonpoliciesandprojections.ThequalityofreportingforMemberStatesisofa variablequalityintermsoflevelofdetailprovided.Difficultiesoccurredwithsubmissionsbecause ofincompleteprojections,inconsistenciesindata,forexamplethebaseyearnotbeingconsistent withprojectionsorincompletesectoralorgasbreakdowns.Asaresult,datagapsoccurredand MemberStateswereaskedtocompleteorcorrecttheirdatainthedraftcountryprofilesentfor review.Datafrom2006forEstoniaanddatafromtheMaltesenationalallocationplan(underthe EUETS)isusedasnonewdataonprojectionsisavailable.InformationpresentedfornonEUEEA membercountriesisgenerallyfromthelastsubmittedUNFCCCnationalcommunication. Besideprojections,policiesandmeasuresMemberStatesarerequiredtoreportonuncertainty analysis,parametersandindicators.Thereportingofindicatorsgotbetter,butuncertaintyand parametersarestillweakpoints. In2007forthefirsttime,atemplateforreportingwasdevelopedandMemberStateswere encouragedtouseit.TheuseofthetemplateshouldguaranteethatMemberStatessubmitall requiredinformationanddatainaconsistentformat,whichallowstheeasierassessmentofthe submissionsandcompilationofreportathand.NineoftheEU27MemberStatesmadeuseofthe template.
Table 11 Reporting of new information in 2008 for EU-27 Member States
New policies and measures New projections reported in reported in 2008? 2008? No No No Yes Yes No No No No No Yes Yes No Yes Yes No Yes No No Yes Yes No No No Yes No No No No No No Yes No No Yes Yes No Yes No No No Yes
Country Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal
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Country Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom Note: New policies and measures New projections reported in reported in 2008? 2008? No No Yes Yes No No No No No Yes No No
New information provided in '2008' refers to official submissions between 31 May 2007 and 31 May 2008.
EverysecondyearEU27MemberStatesarerequiredtoreporttotheEuropeanCommission informationonindicatorsforprojectionstomonitorandevaluateprogresswithpoliciesand measuresasoutlinedinCommissionDecision2005/166/EC(AnnexIII).In2008noreportingwas required,butseveralMemberStatessentmissinginformationandupdates.Table12belowshows availabilityofinformationonindicatorsfortheEU27MemberStates.

Table 12 Reporting on indicators for projections by EU-27 Member States
Member State Austria Belgium Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Finland Germany Greece Ireland Italy Hungary Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Poland Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom Numerator and denominator reported N1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10 N1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 N1 Full set Full set N1,4,7 N1,2,3,4,5,6,7 Full set (indicator only) Full set N1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10 N1,2,4,7 Full set N1 Full set N1,2,4,5,6,7,9, N1,7,8,9,10 Full set Full set N1,2,3,7,8,9,10 N1,2,4,5,7,8,9,10 N1,2,3,4,8,9,10 Year 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 Not all required years 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2010,2015,2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 Not all required years 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020 2005,2010,2015, 2020
In2008,7countriesprovidedindicatorsforprojections.Consequently,21EUMemberStates submittedindicatorsforprojectionsunderthereportingrequirementMarch15th2007.The indicatorsareusedintheChapteronSectoralTrendsintheAnnex.
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A 5.3
Methodological issues
A 5.3.1 Greenhouse gas emissions reporting categories Thesectorcategoriesusedinthisreportareconsistentwiththereportingguidelinesprovidedby theIPCC(33).Thisnomenclatureisusedbyallcountriesforreportingnationalgreenhousegas emissionstotheUNFCCC.

Table 13 Main greenhouse gas source categories
Sector Energy supply and use excluding transport Transport Agriculture Industrial processes Corresponding IPCC sector or source category and description IPCC sector 1 'Energy', except 1.A.3. 'Transport'. It includes mainly energy supply in electricity and heat production and refineries, and energy use in manufacturing industries, households and services. Fugitive emissions from energy are also included in this sector. IPCC source category 1.A.3 'Transport'. It includes mainly road transport, but also rail and domestic aviation and navigation. It does not include international aviation and navigation. IPCC sector 4 'Agriculture'. It includes mainly enteric fermentation and soils (it does not include energy-related emissions from agriculture). IPCC sector 2 'Industrial processes'. It includes mainly process-related emissions from mineral production (cement), the chemical industry (nitric and adipic acid production) and fluorinated gases (it does not include energy-related emissions from industry). IPCC sector 6 'Waste'. It includes mainly emissions from landfills. It does not include waste incineration used for electricity and heat production, which is included in the energy sector. IPCC sector 3 'Solvent and other product use' and IPCC sector 7 'Other'. Due to the low share of this sector, no detailed analysis of emissions from this sector is provided.
Waste
Solvents and other products
A 5.3.2 Adjustment on projections reported by countries Greenhousegasemissionprojectionsreportedbycountriesarealwaysrelatedtohistoricemissions foraspecificyearchosenbythem.Thisreferenceyearcanbeanyyearforwhichpastinventory dataisavailable(1990,1991,1992,etc.upto2006),orthebaseyearundertheKyotoProtocol. However,emissiondatareportedforthisreferenceyear,alongwithprojections,doesnotalways matchwiththedatausedinthisreportfortheassessmentofhistorictrends(19902006emissions fromthelatest2008GreenhousegasinventoriesandbaseyearemissionsasfixedafterUNFCCC reviewofinitialreportsundertheKyotoProtocol). Therefore,toensureconsistencybetweenprojectedemissionsreportedbycountriesandpast emissiontrendsreportedin2008,projectedemissionshavebeensubjecttoanadjustment,basedon thereferenceyearchosenandtheemissionsreportedalongwithprojectionsforthisreferenceyear. Theadjustmentensuresthattherelativeprogressbetweenthereferenceyearandtheyearfor whichprojectionsarereportedremainsconstant.Theadjustmentformulausedis:
Projectionadjusted = Projectionsubmission x Emissions reference yearGHG inventory Emissions reference yearsubmission
Where: Projectionadjusted=asusedinthisreportandreportedinChapter11. Projectionsubmission=asreportedbythecountryinitsmostrecentsubmissionundertheMonitoring MechanismDecisionortheUNFCCC.
(33) The different GHG source categories are classified according to a specific IPCC nomenclature. See Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs1.htm
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Emissionsreferenceyearsubmission=asreportedwithprojectionsundertheMonitoringMechanism DecisionortheUNFCCC. EmissionsreferenceyearGHGinventory=asreportedin: thereviewreportoftheinitialreportundertheKyotoProtocolifthereferenceyearselected istheKyotobaseyear; the2008greenhousegasinventorysubmittedtoUNFCCC,ifthereferenceyearselectedis nottheKyotobaseyear.
Thelistofreferenceyearsusedbycountriesandcorrespondingadjustmentfactorsisprovidedin Table14.
Table 14 Reference year used by countries for projections and adjustment factors
Reference year consistent with reported projections
Country Adjustment factor
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom
1990 2000 2000 1990 1990 2004 Kyoto base year (1990/1995) 2000 1990 1990 Kyoto base year (1990/1995) 1990 2001 1990 Kyoto base year (1990/1995) 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 2005 Kyoto base year (1990/1995) 1990 Kyoto base year (1988/1995) Kyoto base year (1990/1995) 2004 1990 1986 2005 Kyoto base year (1990/1995) 1990 2003 Kyoto base year (1990/1995)
1.003 0.991 1.046 1.026 0.882 0.998 1.000 0.840 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.039 0.998 0.999 1.001 0.917 1.027 1.045 1.620 0.999 1.002 0.960 0.986 0.991 1.009 1.007 1.001 0.998 1.006 1.000 1.001
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A 5.3.3 Gap filling procedures for projections Gapfillingisnecessary,asseveraldatasetsarerequiredtoassesstheprogressofaMemberState aswellastheprogressoftheEU. Thesedatainclude: totalwithexistingmeasurescenarioandwithadditionalmeasurescenarioemission projectionvalue; sectoralandgasbreakdownforreferenceyearandscenarios; 2020projectionvalue. AcompletesectoralandgasbreakdownforprojectionswasmissingforItaly,Luxembourg,Malta, HungaryandFrance.FullgasbreakdownswerenotprovidedbyAustria,Greece(forWAM),Italy, Malta,LuxembourgandHungary.Energyandtransportdisaggregationswerenotprovidedby Bulgaria,Estonia,Cyprus,Malta,ItalyandHungary.Proportionsfromthelatestinventory(2006) wereappliedtototalprojectionfigurestodetermineproxyshares,exceptforGreecesWAM breakdown,wheretheWEMshareswereapplied.MaltaprovidedprojectionsforCO2emissions from2powerplantsonly.ThereforeMaltasprojectionwasscaledbyapplyingthepercentage differencebetweenemissionsfor2005(fromthe2008inventory)forthesame2powerplantsand emissionsforallsectorsandgases. AllEUMemberStatesreportedtotalprojectionssogapfillingwasnotnecessaryforEU27total projectionsfor2010. Thisyearsreportalsocontainsanassessmentofthesituationin2020.Asonly24outoftheEU27 MemberStatesprovidedprojectionsfor2020,thefollowinggapfillingprocedurewasapplied.The projectedtrendoftheaggregatedMemberStatesavailable(EU24)isappliedtothemissing countries.Thatmeansthe20062020percentvariationfortheavailableEUcountriesisappliedto thecountrieswithagaptoobtainacompleteEU27projectionfor2010. A 5.3.4 Calculating savings from national policies and measures Throughoutthisreport,projectedsavingsfrompoliciesandmeasuresin2010areestimatedby comparisonwithahypotheticalreferencecaseinwhichnomeasureswereimplementedsincethe startingyearchosenbyeachcountryforitswithoutmeasuresprojection(whereawithout measuresprojectionisprovided).Thisyearisusuallybetween1990and2000. Wherepossible,projectedemissionreductionsfrompoliciesarecalculatedfromthelatestMember State(sectoral)projections.Hence,thewithadditionalmeasuresprojectionissubtractedfromthe withexistingmeasuresprojectiontorevealtheeffectofplannedpoliciesandmeasures.Likewise, thewithexistingmeasuresprojectionissubtractedfromthewithoutmeasuresprojectionto revealtheeffectofexistingpoliciesandmeasures.ManyMemberStatesdonotprovideawithout measuresprojectionand,asaresult,thereportedeffectsofexistingmeasuresisverylikelytobe anunderestimate.However,thisdataisconsistentwithprojectionsreportedandtakesaccountfor anyinteractioneffectsbetweenpoliciesandmeasures. A 5.3.5 Calculating savings from CCPMs DatausedtoillustratesavingsfromindividualCCPMsinthisreportistakenfromtheDatabaseon PoliciesandMeasuresinEurope(www.oeko.de/service/pam/sector.php).Dataincludessavings projectedbyMemberStatesforexistingwithmeasures(implemented/adopted)andwith additionalmeasures(planned)in2010,bycomparisonwithahypotheticalreferencecaseinwhich nomeasureswereimplementedsincestartingyearchosenbyeachcountryforitswithout
measuresprojection(whereawithoutmeasuresprojectionisprovided).Thisyearisusually between1990and2000.DatausedinthisreportareforCCPMsonlyandthereforedonotinclude quantificationoftheeffectofpurelynationalpolicies.ThedatabaseprovidesdetailonPAMstatus, splitbyimplemented/adoptedandplannedstatus.Thesecategoriesdonotnecessarily correspondtothePAMsincludedinMemberStateswithmeasures/additionalmeasures projectionsandtheestimatedsavingsfromplannedmeasuresdonotnecessarilycorrespondtothe differencebetweenthewithmeasuresandwithadditionalmeasuresprojections.Sincealarge proportionofPAMshavenotbeenquantified,thisiswhyhypotheticalwithoutmeasures projectionscannotbederived. A 5.3.6 Calculating a 'without measures' projection scenario WithoutmeasuresprojectionsareextractedfromMemberStateslatestsubmissionsinorderto illustratetheeffectofimplementedpoliciesandmeasures.
131
References
References
ECCP,2003.SecondECCPProgressReportCanwemeetourKyototargets?.2003. EEA,2005:MunicipalWasteGeneration,Coresetofindicators016,November2005,European EnvironmentAgency EEA,2006a:EnergyandEnvironmentintheEuropeanUnion,Trackingprogresstowards integration,EEAReportNo8/2006,EuropeanEnvironmentAgency EEA,2006b:Indicator:EN21FinalEnergyConsumptionIntensity EEA,2007a.TheEuropeanCommunitysinitialreportundertheKyotoProtocol,TechnicalreportNo 10/2006.EuropeanEnvironmentAgency,2007. EEA,2007b.GreenhousegasemissiontrendsandprojectionsinEurope2007,EEAReportNo5/2007. EuropeanEnvironmentAgency,2007. EEA,2008a.AnnualEuropeanCommunitygreenhousegasinventory19902006andinventoryreport 2008,SubmissiontotheUNFCCCSecretariat,TechnicalreportNo6/2008.EuropeanEnvironment Agency,2008. EEA,2008b.Bettermanagementofmunicipalwastewillreducegreenhousegasemissions,EEABriefing No1/2008.EuropeanEnvironmentAgency,2008. EEA,2008c.ClimateforatransportchangeTERM2007:indicatorstrackingtransportandenvironmentin theEuropeanUnion,EEAReportNo1/2008.EuropeanEnvironmentAgency,2008. EEA,2008d.Energyandenvironmentreport2008,EEAReportNo6/2008.EuropeanEnvironment Agency,2008. DatabaseonPoliciesandMeasuresinEurope(http://www.oeko.de/service/pam/sector.php). ETC,2007a.DataonAviationandClimateChange,TechnicalPaper2007/1.EuropeanTopicCentreon AirandClimateChange,2007. ETC,2007b.TheEUEmissiontradingschemeinnumbers,TechnicalPaper2007/2.EuropeanTopic CentreonAirandClimateChange,2007. IPCC,1996.Revised1996IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories.Intergovernmental PanelonClimateChange,1996. IPCC1999:IPCCSpecialReportAviationandtheGlobalAtmosphere,IntergovernmentalPanelon ClimateChange KO,2008a.AssessmentofeffortsharingproposalbytheCommission.koInstitut,2008. KO,2008b.AuctioningRevenuesandRedistributionAnalysisVersion9.3.koInstitut,2008. OPTRES,2007.AssessmentandoptimisationofrenewableenergysupportschemesintheEuropean electricitymarket.FraunhoferIRBVerlag,2007. PRIMES:EuropeanEnergyandTransport:Trendsto2030,update2007,NTUA(NationalTechnical UniversityofAthens)2008:EnergyBaselineScenario,PrimesVer.3EnergyModel. UNFCCC,2008.ReportofthereviewoftheinitialreportoftheEuropeanCommunity, FCCC/IRR/2007/EC.UNFCCC,15February2008.
132
Glossary
Glossary
ACEA EuropeanAutomobileManufacturersAssociation(EUwideagreement withACEAandsimilarlyalsowithJapanese(JAMA)andKorean (KAMA)automobilemanufacturingindustries) afforestation,reforestationanddeforestation commonandcoordinatedpoliciesandmeasuresatEUlevel cleandevelopmentmechanismasdefinedintheKyotoProtocol, Article12,meaningprojectsonthereductionofgreenhousegas emissionsbetweenindustrialisedcountriesanddevelopingcountries certifiedemissionreductionunitcausedbyaCDMproject chlorofluorocarbons combinedheatandpower methane CommunityIndependentTransactionLog ConventiononLongrangeTransboundaryAirPollution carbondioxide ConferenceoftheParties commonreportingformat DesignatedNationalAuthority distancetotargetindicator Europeanclimatechangeprogramme EuropeanEnvironmentAgency emissionreductionunitcausedbyJIprojects ExpertReviewTeam EuropeanTopicCentreonAirandClimateChange EmissionTradingScheme Bulgaria,Cyprus,CzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia, Lithuania,Malta,Poland,Romania,SlovakRepublic,Slovenia Austria,Belgium,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Greece, Ireland,Italy,Luxembourg,Netherlands,Portugal,Spain,Sweden, UnitedKingdom EuropeanUnionAllowance grossdomesticproduct greenhousegases hydrochlorofluorocarbon hydrofluorocarbon InternationalEnergyAgency IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange
133
ARD CCPMs CDM
CER CFCs CHP CH4 CITL CLRTAP CO2 COP CRF DNA DTI ECCP EEA ERU ERT ETC/ACC ETS EU12 EU15
EUA GDP GHG HCFC HFC IEA IPCC
Glossary
IPPC JAMA JI
integratedpollutionpreventionandcontrol JapaneseAutomobileManufacturersAssociation JointimplementationasdefinedintheKyotoProtocol,Article6, meaningprojectsonthereductionofgreenhousegasemissions betweenindustrialisedcountriesandcountriesintransition KoreanAutomobileManufacturersAssociation KyotoProtocol Landuse,landusechangeandforestry CouncilDecisionNo280/2004/ECconcerningamechanismfor monitoringCommunitygreenhousegasemissionsandfor implementingtheKyotoProtocol MemorandumofUnderstanding MemberStates Mega(million)tonnes NationalAllocationPlan nitrousoxide policiesandmeasures perfluorocarbons renewableenergysources sulphurhexafluoride UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope/Cooperative ProgrammeforMonitoringandEvaluationoftheLongRange TransmissionofAirPollutantsinEurope UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange withadditionalmeasures withexistingmeasures withoutmeasure
KAMA KP LUCLUF MonitoringMechanism
MoU MS Mt NAP N2O PAM PFCs RES SF6 UNECE/EMEP
UNFCCC WAM WEM WOM
134

Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends and Projections in Europe 2008 Tracking Progress Towards Kyoto Targets Annexes

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Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends and Projections in Europe 2008 Tracking Progress Towards Kyoto Targets Annexes

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EEA report | No 5/2008

Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2008

Energy use (excluding transport)......................................... 24

Energy use from transport.................................................. 55

Industrial processes .......................................................... 68

A 3.2 A 3.3 A 3.4 A 3.5 A 3.6

A 4.2 A 4.3 A 4.4

References ..........................................................................................132 Glossary..............................................................................................133

Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

A 1 Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

Sector shares and main trends in the EU-15

Solvent use and other Waste 0% 3%

Energy w ithout transport 61%

Energy w ithout transport 59%

Energy without transport Agriculture Waste

Transport Industrial processes Solvent use and other

Sector shares of total CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions in 2006

Energy use excluding transport 16%

Transport 1% Indust rial processes 0%

Energy use excluding transport 9%

Transport 6% Indust rial processes 12%

Transport 25% Energy use excluding transport 69%

Agricult ure 69%

Source: EEA, 2008a

Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

Direct So il Emissio ns (N2O fro m 4D1 )

Indirect Emissio n (N2O fro m 4D3)

A bso lute Change

Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

Contribution of key sources to total GHG emissions in 1990 and 2006

Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

Energy supply (energy industries)

Definition(IPCCsector1A1):emissionsfromfuelscombustedbythefuelextractionorenergyproducing industries. Key EU policies and measures Trends

DirectiveontheEUemissiontradingscheme(ETS)(2003) Directiveonelectricityproductionfromrenewableenergysources(2001) CogenerationDirective(2004) Directiveonenergytaxation(2003) Directiveontheenergyperformanceofbuildings(2002).

Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

EmissionreductionpotentialsreportedbyMemberStatesforenergypolicieshavestayed relativelyconstantsince2006fortheEU15,withabroadlysimilarsplitbetweenexistingand plannedpolicies.

100 Carbon saving (MtCO2-eq.)

41.8 3.2 9.1

Manufacturing industries and construction

Additional policies and measures

Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

With additional measures scenario

With existing measures scenario MtCO2-eq.

Without measures scenario

Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

With additional measures scenario

With existing measures scenario MtCO2-eq.

Without measures scenario

Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

Emissionssavingsfromadditionalpoliciescouldbemorecomprehensivelydisaggregatedby energysubsectorin2008anditcanbededucedthattherehasbeenlittlechangeinthesplit comparedto2007. ForthewholeEU,emissionreductionpotentialsfor2010fromenergypolicieshavedecreased by340Mt.

Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

Sectoral emission trends and projections in the EU

CO2 emissions (past) Electricity consumption (past) Electricity consumption (projected)

Electricity production (past) Electricity production (projected)

CO2 emissions (past) Electricity consumption (past) Electricity consumption (projected)

Electricity production (past) Electricity production (projected)

Source: EEA, 2008a; Eurostat; PRIMES.

Index 1990 = 100

120 110 107 100

2006 Other 3% Liquid 7%

Source: EEA, 2008a;