eTForecasts - Executive Summary, Internet User Forecast by Country

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INTERNET USER FORECAST BY COUNTRY

An Estimate and Forecast of Internet Users in 57 Countries and 6 Regions of the World. Table of Contents List of Tables and Figures 1.0 Executive Summary 1.1 Internet User Driving Forces 1.2 Wireless Internet User 1.3 Leading Countries by Internet Users

Table of Contents
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1.1 3.1.2 3.2 3.2.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.43 Executive Summary Internet User Driving Forces Wireless Internet User Leading Countries by Number of Internet Users Internet User Trends What is an Internet User? What is Included in the Internet User Forecast? What Countries and Regions Are Included? Internet Market Perspectives Technology Impact on Internet Use Internet User Hardware Platforms Internet User Summary Data Forecast Methodology and Assumptions Forecast Methodology Ultimate Penetration Rates Forecast Assumptions Information Sources Survey/Projection Accuracy Internet Users Estimates and Forecast Internet Users by Country Internet Users per 1,000 People by Country Weekly Internet Users by Country Leading Countries by Number of Internet Users Leading Countries by Number of Internet Users per Capita Internet Users Frequency Perspectives. Wireless Internet Users Broadband Subscribers Internet User Forecast Spreadsheet Details Internet User Data for 57 Countries Internet User Data by Regions Other Research Reports by eTForecasts 6 7 9 9 12 12 14 15 16 18 21 21 25 25 27 28 29 30 32 32 33 35 37 39 41 42 47 52 53 101 109

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List of Tables and Figures

Table 1.1 Figure 1.1 Table 1.2 Table 1.3 Table 1.4 Table 1.5 Table 1.6 Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 2.4 Table 2.5 Table 2.6 Table 2.7 Table 2.8 Table 2.9 Table 2.10 Table 2.11 Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 4.1 Table 4.2 Table 4.3 Table 4.4 Table 4.5 Table 4.6 Table 4.7 Table 4.8 Table 4.9 Table 4.10 Table 4.11 Table 4.12 Table 4.13 Table 4.14 Table 4.15 Table 4.16 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 U.S. & Worldwide Internet User Growth Internet Users by Regions Internet User Driving Forces Wireless Internet Users Top 15 Countries In Internet Users: 2008 Top 15 Countries In Internet Users Per Capita: 2008 Internet Access Device Scenario: 2015 Internet User Categories Internet User Category Relationships Internet Usage Places Internet User Forecast Content Countries by Regions PC Market Perspectives Internet Industry Perspectives Technology Impact of Internet Use Internet User Summary By Regions Weekly Internet User Summary By Regions Broadband Subscriber Summary by Regions Ultimate Internet Penetration Factors Internet Market Statistics Sources Internet Users By Country Internet Users Per 1,000 People By Country Weekly Internet Users By Country Top 15 Countries By Internet Users: 1995 and 2000 Top 15 Countries By Internet Users: 2005 and 2008 Top 15 Countries By Internet Users: 2010 and 2014 Top 15 Countries In Internet Users Per Capita: 1995 and 2000 Top 15 Countries In Internet Users Per Capita: 2005 and 2008 Top 15 Countries In Internet Users Per Capita: 2010 and 2014 Internet User Frequency Relations Top 15 Countries In Internet Usage PC Internet versus Wireless Internet Wireless Internet Users by Regions Wireless Internet Users: Selected Countries Broadband Subscribers by Country Broadband Subscribers Per 1,000 People by Country Internet User Forecast Content Argentina 6 7 7 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 17 18 19 21 22 23 27 29 32 34 35 37 38 38 39 40 40 41 41 43 45 46 47 49 52 53

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Table 5.3 Table 5.4 Table 5.5 Table 5.6 Table 5.7 Table 5.8 Table 5.9 Table 5.10 Table 5.11 Table 5.12 Table 5.13 Table 5.14 Table 5.15 Table 5.16 Table 5.17 Table 5.18 Table 5.19 Table 5.20 Table 5.21 Table 5.22 Table 5.23 Table 5.24 Table 5.25 Table 5.26 Table 5.27 Table 5.28 Table 5.29 Table 5.30 Table 5.31 Table 532 Table 5.33 Table 5.34 Table 5.35 Table 5.36 Table 5.37 Table 5.38 Table 5.39 Table 5.40 Table 5.41 Table 5.42 Table 5.43 Table 5.44 Table 5.45 Table 5.46 Table 5.47 Table 5.48 Table 5.49 Table 5.50 Table 5.51 Table 5.52 Table 5.53 Table 5.54 Table 5.55 Table 5.56 Table 5.57 Table 5.58 Table 5.59 Table 5.60 Table 5.61 Table 5.62 Table 5.63 Table 5.64 Table 5.65 Table 5.66

Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Bulgaria Canada Chile China Columbia Czech Republic Denmark Egypt Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Japan Latvia Lithuania Malaysia Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Singapore Slovakia Slovenia South Africa South Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey Ukraine United Kingdom USA Uruguay Venezuela Other Countries Worldwide North America Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific South/Central America Middle East & Africa

54 55 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 61 62 63 64 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 76 77 78 79 80 81 81 82 83 84 85 85 86 87 88 89 90 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 96 97 98 99 100 101 101 102 103 104 105 106 107

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1.0 Executive Summary

The Internet began as a university research project in 1969 and was funded by ARPAa U.S. military research organization. For the next 20 years the Internet and its predecessor, the primarily a network for government and academic researchers during this timeframe. The defining event of the Internet happened in 1989 when Tim Berners-Lee proposed the World W when the first primitive web browser was implemented. The release of the free Mosaic browser in 1993 and the Netscape browser in 1994 allowed millions of PCs already in use to quic At the end of 1989, there were 1.1M Internet users worldwide and about 86% were in the U.S. In the 1990s the worldwide number of Internet users grew 250-fold to over 290M for a com growth in the number of U.S. Internet users is slowing due to the high level of penetration. The worldwide number will grow at a stronger rate due to low penetration levels in many regio U.S. and worldwide Internet users over the last 20 years.
Table 1.1 US and Worldwide Internet User Growth 1985 US Internet Users (#M) US Internet User share (%) US Internet Users/1,000 People (#) Worldwide Internet Users (#M) Worldwide Internet Users/1,000 People (#) 0.019 89.6 0.08 0.021 0.004 1990 1.80 84.5 7.2 2.13 0.40 1995 28.1 62.3 105 45.1 7.91 2000 135 32.2 476 420 68.8 2005 210 17.3 704 1,081 167 1

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At the end of 2000 the U.S. had nearly 135M Internet users. Between 1990 and 1995 the compound annual growth rate of U.S. Internet users was over 73% and slowed to 36% betwee number of Internet users grew by 8% and will grow by less than 6% per year between 2005 and 2010. The worldwide number of Internet users zoomed from 2.1M at year-end 1990 to over 45M in 1995, which is a compound annual growth rate of over 84%. From 1995 to 2000 the compo less than 21% between 2000 and 2005. For the next five years the worldwide number of Internet users is forecasted to grow by less than 11% per year. The next figure shows the growth of Internet users for the main regions of the world. Six regions and the U.S. Internet user totals are listed in the bar graph. The estimates show that As Internet users in 2001, which will grow to over 1.2B Internet users in 2014. Western Europe with 355M Internet users in 2014 will also top the 284M Internet users forecasted for the U.S strongest Internet user growth at over 208M in 2014, from 108M in 2008 and from less than 13M Internet users in 2000.

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2005 2008 2014 USA N. America W. Europe E. Europe Asia L. America ME/Africa

Figure 1.1 Internet Users by Regions Increasing usage of wireless web devices will cause much of the Internet user growthespecially in the developing countries. In 2005 less than 22% of Internet users were using wirele than 1.7% in 1999. A large portion of the wireless web users is currently in Japan, S. Korea, China, USA and W. Europe. In the next five years the growth of wireless Internet users will g 2007 to over 65% in 2014. Many of these users will be using multiple Internet access devices. back to top

1.1 Internet User Driving Forces

There are numerous factors that are driving the growth of the Internet. The key driving forces are summarized in the next table. The left column shows important factors that have been the Internet. The right column lists the factors that are emerging and are likely to have a strong impact in the next five years.
Table 1.2 Internet User Driving Forces 1996-2007 Email proliferation Free web browser Content explosion Under $1K PCs (1997) Intranets for business users Web hosting services Business-to-consumer e-commerce PC purchase rebates from ISPs Business-to-business e-commerce Declining & fixed ISP rates Under $500 PCs (2000) Free ISP rates in international markets Web-driven productivity gains Internet/cyber cafes Business-to-business e-commerce Cable modem & DSL connections Home networks for Internet access device 2008-2014 Broadband connections: DSL, fiber & others Handsets with Internet access Internet access via wireless access points Internet-enabled consumer electronics devices Multi-function handheld devices* Web content for wireless/handheld devices Unmetered Internet access fees Prepaid Internet access cards E-commerce in developing countries M-commerce (e-commerce for mobile devices) Social network websites (Facebook etc) Netbook PCs ($200-$400) Internet entertainment content $50 handset with Internet access Location-based content Internet entertainment content Mobile Internet devices (MID) Mobile broadband connections (WiMax)

*Smartphones, handsets, media players and others Low cost Internet access devices will continue to be a leading Internet user growth factor. A low cost PC in the $200 range is needed for the developing countries. It is sometimes called estimated manufacturing cost. The netbook PC is now taking its place and is seeing strong growth because it is selling worldwide because of the recession. By 2010 such a product ma the $50 web-enabled handset, which is likely to appear around 2008. Free ISP rates are usually not free. They are used in countries where all telephone call fees are based on usage rates. The ISP offering free Internet access receives a share of the p company. However, un-metered Internet rates or a fixed monthly rate for unlimited use are becoming importantespecially with broadband Internet connections. Un-metered rates will b have peaked in importance. Broadband Internet access such as cable modems and Digital Subscriber Lines (DSL) are growing rapidly and will have a positive impact on the user experience. Fiber optic broadband growing share. The U.S. has been slow to add broadband infrastructure and Canada, Japan, S. Korea and other countries have much higher broadband penetration than the U.S. DSL in most countries because it uses the existing telephone network infrastructure. The emerging 3G cellular technologies will be very important due to its always-on characteristics. 3G cellular networks is a great improvement over current transfer rates. Current 3G n 384 Kbps for moving vehicles and 2 Mbps or higher for stationary handsets. Higher maximum speeds are emerging and these upgrades are often called 3.5G. However, due to multiple average bandwidth for each user will be much lower than the maximum rate. Several other broadband technologies may also have an impact on Internet access. Wireless LANs (Wi-Fi or IEEE 802.11) use an unlicensed frequency band in the 2.5 GHz range for lo The growth of wireless access points that provide broadband Internet access to mobile devices using IEEE 802.11 protocol is currently seeing strong growth. WiMax or IEEE 802.16 is a future potential for broadband connectivity. WiMax has a much larger range than Wi-Fi and will compete with 3G and 3.5G cellular networks. Internet-enabled consumer electronics devices will have a growing impact on Internet usage. An increasing number of 2.5G and 3G cell phones will have Internet access capabilities an access. Web-enabled handsets will also extend the number of Internet usersespecially in developing countries where fixed phones lines are limited. Web appliances and web-enterta place of Internet access. back to top

1.2 Wireless Internet User

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The wireless Internet was perceived as a disappointment due to earlier inflated expectations a few years ago. By 2006, the wireless Internet had only lived up to expectations in Japan a Internet has taken off in the USA, W. Europe, China and other regions. The Apple iPhone deserves much of the credit since its user interface made it much easier to access Internet con followed and the mobile phone Internet access is now growing very fast. The importance of the wireless web is shown in the next table. It is important to note that most of the wireless Internet users are also using the Internet via PCs.
Table 1.3 Wireless Internet Users Region USA Internet Users (#M) Wireless Internet Users (#M) Wireless Internet User Share (%) Worldwide Internet Users (#M) Wireless Internet Users (#M) Wireless Internet User Share (%) 2003 174 12 7.2 827 143 17.3 2005 198 22 11.2 1,094 239 21.8

The wireless Internet is making progress with the deployment of 3G and 3.5G-packet communication networks. Packet networks are always on, which eliminates the lengthy log-on proc displays of wireless devices is expanding and simpler user interfaces are now available. As the wireless Internet user experience improves, an increasing portion of the dormant web-en Internet devices. Back to top

1.3 Leading Countries by Internet Users

The worldwide number of Internet users passed 130M in 1997 topped 564M in 2001 and surpassed 1B in 2005. Much of the growth in Internet users is taking place outside the U.S. Asi five years. China surpassed Japan and became second to the U.S. in number of Internet users in 2002 and became #1 in 2008. At the end of 2000 the U.S. accounted for 31.3% of tota 55.7% in 1996. U.S. Internet user share dropped below 20% in 2004 and below 15% in 2008. The next table is the estimated country ranking of Internet users for year-end 2008.
Table 1.4 Top 15 Countries in Internet Users: 2008 Internet Users (#K) 1. China 2. U.S. 3. India 4. Japan 5. Germany 6. UK 7. Brazil 8. France 9. Italy 10. South Korea 11. Russia 12. Indonesia 13. Canada 14.Mexico 15. Spain Top 15 Total Worldwide Total Year-End 2008 235,100 234,240 108,410 99,010 57,030 44,890 41,170 39,460 37,370 36,940 35,890 33,300 26,060 25,450 22,910 1,077,230 1,592,404 Share % 14.76 14.71 6.81 6.22 3.58 2.82 2.59 2.48 2.35 2.32 2.25 2.09 1.64 1.60 1.44 67.65 100

PCs remain the leading Internet access device, but other Internet enabled devices will grow in importance. Web cell phones are and will continue to be the most important Internet appli phones may approach the number of PCs used for web access. However, most Internet users will be accessing the web from both PCs and web-enabled cell phones and Internet-enab The next table shows the estimated number of Internet users per capita for leading countries at year-end 2008. The Scandinavian, N. American and W. European countries are the lead New Zealand, Singapore, Japan and S. Korea. Japan and S. Korea have moved up due to rapid penetration of web cell phones. Back to top
Table 1.5 Top 15 Countries in Internet Users Per Capita: 2008 Internet Users Per 1,000 People 1. Iceland 2. Sweden 3. Norway 4. Denmark 5. Australia 6. Canada 7. Singapore 8. Japan 9. Finland 10. Hong Kong 11. Netherlands 12. New Zealand 13. USA 14. South Korea 15. UK Worldwide Total Year-end 2008 831.1 814.8 803.1 802.6 788.1 784.7 780.2 778.5 774.5 772.9 770.0 770.0 769.9 763.5 736.6 238.6

In the next 10 years the Internet will have a dramatic impact on every facet of our lives. Most of the industrialized world will be using PCs, mobile phones and information/web appliance industrialized countries will have multiple web access devices and some will have multiple PCs that will manage and synchronize all the information that flow to and from the Internet. W large number of mobile Internet applications and services. The developing countries will also have made tremendous strides in using the Internet. The wireless Internet devices will be e limited land-based telecommunications infrastructure. A speculative but reasonable 2015 scenario for Internet access devices is shown in the next table. Back to top

Table 1.6 Internet Access Device Scenario: 2015

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USA 1. In 2015 there will be over 285M Internet users 2. In 2015 there will be over 335M PCs in use 3. Over 80% of office workers use PCs 4. Over 95% of households will have PCs 5. There will be over 340M cell phones in use 6. There will be 195M wireless Internet users

Worldwide 1. In 2015 there will be over 2.6B Internet users 2. In 2015 there will be over 1.9B PCs in use 3. Over 65% of office workers use PCs 4. Over 50% of households will have PCs 5. There will be over 5B cell phones in use 6. There will be 2B wireless Internet users

Most of the Western European countries, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea will have penetration scenarios similar to the U.S. for 2015. It is reasonable to predict that the Internet and Internet access devices will have a bigger impact than the combined effect of the phone, TV and PC in the next 10 to 15 years. Back to top < Back

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