China: Fragile Superpower: How Chinas Internal Politics Could Derail Its Peaceful Rise to Power, by Susan Shirk,

Oxford University Press, 2007 Reviewed by Archie S. McKee

Susan Shirk has written the definitive book at the right time. Madeline K. Albright I second what Albright says. This book is a must-read for anyone who is interested in modern China or in present and future U.S.-China relations. It is by far the most comprehensive and best book on the subject. And as an added bonus, Shirks writing style is easy and pleasant to read.

Susan Shirk, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State under Madeline Albright, now heads the University of Californias Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. She first visited the PRC in 1971 (yes, that is right) with a group of U.S. graduate students. On her first visit, she was stunned by the contrast between the commercial bustle and stylish skyscrapers of Hong Kong and the drab poverty of the MainlandPeeling paint, rusting railings, broken windows, and unkempt parks spoke of poverty and neglect. (I remember almost the same impressions when I first visited China in the early 1980s.) During her trip, at a visit to the Great Hall of the People at the invitation of Thou Enlai, the Premier asked us to bring our tape recorders so he could communicate his explanation for this sudden shift in Chinese foreign policy both in side and outside the country. In contrast, Shirk writes, The China I visit today looks and sounds like a different planet from the one I visited in 1971. The country has shed its ideological straitjacket, replaced central planning with a market economy, and opened wide to the world. Its glamorous skyscrapers, ubiquitous cell phone, traffic jams, and crowded Starbucks are indistinguishable from those of Seoul, Tokyo, or New York. The book discusses Chinas phenomenal rise and goes into detail in some areas, providing interesting statistics on the rapid development. Shirk points out that because of the size of the economy, China appears to many on the outside as a behemoth and even a threat. But she is quick to add that from the inside, to its citizens, China appears most fragile. This gives rise to uneven development that is straining the system and a self-image that is quite different from what outsiders see. She very clearly emphasizes that domestic threats are the number one concern of the Chinese themselves. Shirk spends three chapters discussing what she thinks are areas of possible future conflict arising out of misunderstandings or mismanagement of fast moving situations: Taiwan, Japan, and the U.S. These are what I call trigger points where events may cause trouble for both sides in a manner unforeseen now. She talks about the decline of respect for the U.S., mainly due to our actions on the international stage, that is changing our relationship with the PRC. One chapter discusses the impact that a changing media is having: the role of the Internet, TV chat rooms, and cell phone use and the difficulties the traditional system has with these uncontrollable medium. The final chapter is all important. Its title, Chinas Weakness, Americas Danger, says it best. My review does not do justice to the book. I am sure that some people will disagree with Shirks observations. That is to be expected with any book. However, I sincerely hope that the present administration is reading it, and that future officials will do the same. Shirk opens your eyes and allows you to see that decisions are often made with good intentions, only to trap those involved in conflict instead. She effectively uses scenarios that show what can or did happen.

It will take a lot of effort on the part of the Chinese themselves (and Shirk gives them high marks for the most part) to achieve their peaceful rise. It will also take patience and understanding on the part of the rest of the world to watch China continue to grow and develop without misunderstandings and possible conflict. Susan Shirks book goes a long way towards achieving that peaceful outcome.

Archie S. McKee is a member of USCPFA -Sarasota.

Summer 2007 US-CHINA REVIEW 23