Software Size and Cost Estimation

Software Project Management
BIM 8th SEM Software Size and Cost Estimation Unit 3

keshavpoudel@prime.edu.np 1
Software Estimation
A project manager produces: An estimate of the effort. An estimate of the activity durations.
An estimate of effort affects An estimate of activity durations affects
costs
the delivery time

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keshavpoudel@prime.edu.np
Difficulties of Estimation
Some estimation difficulties include:
Nature of software.
Complexity and invisibility of software.
Subjective nature of estimating.

Over-estimating and under-estimating.
Political implications.
Different objectives of people in an organization.
Changing technology.
Technology is rapidly changing, making the experience of previous project estimates not useable in new ones.
Lack of homogeneity of project experience.

Differences between projects.
Where are estimates done?

Estimates are carried out at different stages of a software project for a variety of reasons. Feasibility study. Strategic planning. System specification. Evaluation of suppliers proposals. Project planning. As the project proceeds, the accuracy of your estimates improves. Why?
Over and Under Estimation

Over-estimating a project can cause it to take longer than it would otherwise. Parkinsons Law: work expands to fill the time available.
Brooks Law: putting more people on a late job makes it later
Underestimating a project: can cause it to not be delivered on time and cost but still could be delivered faster than a more generous estimate. On the other side it has bad effect on the Quality why?.
Basis for Software Estimating

The need for historical data. Most estimation methods need information about past projects. Care has to be considered when applying past performance to new projects because: Different programming languages. Different experience of staff. Different terminology.
Basis for Software Estimating (contd)

Measuring work.
The time and cost to implement software depends on: The developers capability and experience. The technology used.
In order to express work size independently of the effort, we can use measures such as:
SLOC OR KLOC: Source lines of code or thousands of lines of code. Function points.
Software Effort Estimation Techniques

Some include: Expert judgment. Analogy estimation. Bottom-up estimation. Top-down estimation.
Bottom-up Estimation
In this approach the estimator breaks the system into component tasks.
The breaking down process is iterative. Usually stops when we get tasks that can be done by an individual in a week or two. The bottom-up part comes in adding up the calculated effort for each activity to get an overall estimate.
The bottom-up approach works at the level of activities.

Bottom-up Estimation (contd) A procedural code-oriented approach

one of the software development activities is writing code. Using the bottom-up approach at the level of software components:
Envisage the number and type of the software modules in the system. Estimate the SLOC of each identified module. Estimate the work content taking into consideration the complexity and technical difficulties.
Calculate the work days effort.

Top-down Estimation
It is associated with parametric or algorithmic models. A formula for a parametric model: Effort = (System Size) (Productivity Rate)
Example: System Size = 3 KLOC. Productivity Rate = 40 days per KLOC. Effort = 3 * 40 =120 Days. System Size is a size driver. Productivity Rate is a productivity driver.
Top-down Estimation (contd)

Other parametric models: Function points is concerned more with task sizes. COCOMO is concerned more with productivity rate.
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Estimation by Analogy
Also called case-based reasoning.

For a new project the estimator identifies the previous completed projects that have similar characteristics to it.
The new project is referred to as the target project or target case.

The completed projects are referred to as the source projects or source cases. The effort recorded for the matching source case is used as the base estimate for the target project.
The estimator calculates an estimate for the new project by adjusting the
(base estimate) based on the differences that exist between the two projects.
Estimation by Analogy (contd)

There are software tools that automate this process by
selecting the nearest project cases to the new project. Some software tools perform that by measuring the Euclidean distance between cases (projects).
The Euclidean distance is calculate as follows: distance= square-root of ((target_parameter1- source_parameter1)2 + (target_parameter n- source_parameter n)2 )
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Estimation by Analogy (contd) Example

Assume that cases are matched on the basis of two parameters, the number of inputs and the number of outputs. The new project requires 7 inputs and 15 outputs. You are looking into two past case: Project A: has 8 inputs and 17 outputs. Project B: has 5 inputs and 10 outputs. Which is a more closer match for the new project A or project B? Distance between new project and project A: Square-root of ((7-8) 2 + (15-17) 2)= 2.24 Distance between new project and project B: Square-root of ((7-5) 2 + (15-10) 2)= 5.39 Project A is a better match because it has less distance than project B to the new project.
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Albrecht Function Point Analysis

FP is A top-down method.
Developed by Allan Albrecht during his work IBM.

Why FP? To be able to calculate the functional size of programs independently of the programming language used.
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Albrecht Function Point Analysis (contd)

Idea of FP: A software system consists of five major components or external user types or functions). Data functions: Logical internal file types
Are standing files used by the system.-> group of data items that is accessed together, it is of one or more records
Purchase Order File(Purchase_order, Purchase_order_item)
External interface file types

Allows output and input that may pass to and from other computer applications eg accounting data
Transaction functions: External input types

Input transaction which updates internal files
External output types

Data is output to the user
External inquiry types

Transactions initiated by the user which provides information but do not update internal files.
Albrecht Function Point Analysis (contd)

The FP approach: 1. Identify each external user type in your application. 2. Determine the complexity of each user type (high, average or low). 3. FP score for of each external user type = Multiply the weight of each complexity by the count of each external user type that has that complexity. 4. FP count = summation of all the FP scores.
FP count indicates the size of the information processing.

IFPUG File Type Complexity

Table 1 Albrecht Complexity Multipliers
External user type External input types External output types

External inquiry types Logical internal file types
Low 3 4
Average 4 5
High 6 7
10
15
External interface 5 file types
10
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IFPUG File Type Complexity (contd)

Table 2 File Type Complexity
Number of record types 1
Number of data types <20 Low 20-50 low >50 Average
2 to 5
>5
Low
Average
Average
High
High
High
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Example
A logical internal file contains data about purchase orders. The purchase orders are organized into two separate record types: The main PURCHASE-ORDER details:
1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. Purchase order number Supplier reference. Purchase order date. Product code. Price. Quantity ordered.
The details for each PURCHASE-ORDER-ITEM:
What is the complexity of the file and its FP count ? Use tables 1&2. We have 2 RET and 6 DET, based on that the file has low complexity. FP count = 7. [RET is record element type.DET is data element type]
Albrecht Function Point Analysis (contd) Exercise

The Payroll system has a payroll data file. The Timetabling system has two files: course file, staff file. A subsystem for analyzing the staffing costs for each course is needed, and a programmer has been asked to create the following program: A program that will extract yearly salaries from the payroll file, and the hours taught on each course by each member of staff and the details of courses from the two files maintained by the timetabling system. The program will produce a report showing for each course the hours taught by each member of staff and the cost of these hours. Assuming the report is of high complexity and all other elements are of average complexity calculate the Albrecht Function Points for this subsystem. Use Table1.
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Exercise
SOLUTION: 3 External interface file types
(payroll file, course file, staff file) with average complexity =7, thus FP score 3*7= 21 1 External output types (report) with high complexity. FP score 1*7= 7 FP count= 21+7=28 FP.
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Albrecht Function Point Analysis (contd) Exercise

Given that 53 lines of Java are needed on average to implement a FP.
How many lines of Java code should be needed to implement the previous subsystem? Assuming a productivity rate of 50 lines of code a day, what would be the estimate of effort?
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COCOMO II
It is a parametric productivity model. It id developed by Barry Boehm in the late 1970s.(based on 63 projects) COCOMO is short for COnstructive COst MOdel. The basic model was built around the following equation: Effort= c(size)k
The effort is measured in person-months(pm), consisting of units of 152 working hours. The size is measured in (Kdsi) thousands of delivered source code of instructions. c and k are constants.
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COCOMO II (contd)
The first step is to estimate the system size in terms of kdsi. C and k depend on classifying the system in Boehms terms as: Organic mode.
Small team, Small system, Interface requirements flexible, In- house software development. Product has to operate within very tight constraints, the project team is large, development environment consists of many complex interfaces, Changes are very costly.
Embedded mode.
Semi-detached mode.
Combination from the two above modes.
COCOMO II (contd)
C and k values
COCOMO II (contd)
COCOMO II is designed to accommodate the fact that estimates will be needed at different stages of the system life cycle. COCOMO II has models for three different stages:
Application composition. Early design. Post Architecture.
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Application composition Stage

The external features that the user will experience are
designed. Prototyping will typically be deployed to do this. Uses object points to estimate the size of the product
Objects include physical features such as screens, reports rather than logical features.
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Early Design Stage

At this stage the fundamental software structures are
designed. Estimate the size by FPs. FPs may be converted to a LOC equivalent.
Estimate scale factor and effort multiplier.
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Early Design(contd)
The following model can be used to calculate an estimate of effort or person-months (pm):
pm=A(size) sf (em 1) .. (em n)

A is a constant set to 2.94.
Size is measured in kdsi (derived from an FP count). em is an effort multiplier (7 effort multipliers). sf= B + 0.01 (exponent driver ratings). B is a constant set to 0.91. The exponent is based on some qualities that affect the system.
The greater the exponent the less quality the system has.
Early Design (contd)

The lack of some qualities will increase the effort required for these projects. The following are the factors that affect the quality:
Precedentedness (PREC). Development Flexibility (FLEX). Architecture/risk resolution (RESL). Team Cohesion (TEAM). Process Maturity (PMAT).
Very low, low, nominal, high, very high, extra high.
Each factor is rated according to a range of judgement as:
There is a number associated with each rating.

Driver table
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Early Design Effort multipliers

RCPX product reliability and complexity. RUSE required reusability. PDIF Platform difficulty. PERS Personnel capability. PREX Personnel experience. FCIL Facilities Available. SCED Schedule pressure.
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Exercise
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Solution
sf= B + 0.01 (exponent driver ratings)
sf= 0.91 + 0.01 * (3.72 + 2.03 + 7.07 + 1.10 +6.24)=1.112 Scale factor=1.112 2000 lines of code = how many kdsi 2000/1000 =2 kdsi Pm=A(size) sf = 2.94 * (2) 1.112 =6.35 Effort = 6.35 person-months.
Post Architecture Stage

Estimation after the software architecture has been defined
and going into its final construction. The same basic model equation Size estimation by KLOC or FPs
Same scale factor estimation 17 factors in EM .
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Post Architecture (contd)

17 factors in 4 different categories Product attributes e.g.: Database size Platform attributes e.g.: main storage constraint Personnel attributes e.g.: Analyst capability. Project attributes e.g.: Multisite developers.
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Refer to the following manual for more details on the Post Architecture stage. http://sunset.usc.edu/csse/research/COCOMOII/COCOMO_main .html.
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Software Project Management

BIM 8th SEM Software Size and Cost Estimation Unit 3

An estimate of effort affects An estimate of activity durations affects

the delivery time

Subjective nature of estimating.

Lack of homogeneity of project experience.

Where are estimates done?

Over and Under Estimation

Basis for Software Estimating

Basis for Software Estimating (contd)

Software Effort Estimation Techniques

The bottom-up approach works at the level of activities.

Bottom-up Estimation (contd) A procedural code-oriented approach

Calculate the work days effort.

Top-down Estimation (contd)

Also called case-based reasoning.

The new project is referred to as the target project or target case.

Estimation by Analogy (contd)

Estimation by Analogy (contd) Example

Albrecht Function Point Analysis

Developed by Allan Albrecht during his work IBM.

Albrecht Function Point Analysis (contd)

External interface file types

Transaction functions: External input types

External output types

External inquiry types

Albrecht Function Point Analysis (contd)

FP count indicates the size of the information processing.

IFPUG File Type Complexity

External user type External input types External output types

External interface 5 file types

IFPUG File Type Complexity (contd)

Number of record types 1

Number of data types <20 Low 20-50 low >50 Average

The details for each PURCHASE-ORDER-ITEM:

Albrecht Function Point Analysis (contd) Exercise

Albrecht Function Point Analysis (contd) Exercise

Application composition Stage

Early Design Stage

pm=A(size) sf (em 1) .. (em n)

Early Design (contd)

Each factor is rated according to a range of judgement as:

There is a number associated with each rating.

Early Design Effort multipliers

Post Architecture Stage

Post Architecture (contd)

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