Afghanistan Weekly War Update: The Kabul Attack and Shifts in Focus

July 6, 2011 | 1157 GMT

The Kabul Hotel Attack

As many as nine armed militants, each reportedly wearing a suicide vest, attacked the Intercontinental Hotel (which has not been affiliated with the InterContinental Hotels Group since 1979) in Kabul on June 28, killing 12 people and injuring another 12. Three of the militants were shot dead by NATO and Afghan forces, while six detonated themselves. Samoonyar Mohammad Zaman, an Afghan Interior Ministry security officer, said the militants used the hotels rear entrance and were equipped with small arms, rocket-propelled grenades and unspecified anti-aircraft weapons. The attack reportedly started at 10 p.m. with an explosion at the rear entrance. The hotel manager said the explosion was caused by grenades, not by the detonation of a suicide bomber as earlier reports had indicated. Upon entering the hotel, at least four militants headed toward the roof, while the others attacked guests in their rooms on the second and third floors. The armed assault and subsequent suicide detonations ended at approximately 7 a.m. the next day. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, but reports by Afghan and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) officials indicate that the Haqqani network was involved. The attack came a day before a conference between U.S. and Afghan forces on the transfer of responsibility for security to indigenous forces. The Taliban claim that the attack aimed to disrupt these talks and target foreign and local officials staying at the hotel. Following the attack, U.S. Gen. David Petraeus congratulated Afghan forces on their quick response and ability to efficiently take control of the situation. However, the attack calls into question how much progress Afghan forces have in fact made, at a time when the United States is getting set to transfer power to local forces. The effectiveness of basic security practices and the professionalism and responsiveness of security forces are of crucial importance in limiting an attacks impact. In the June 28 attack, the hotels security perimeter was breached at a weak point. The militants avoided multiple layers of security by entering through the rear kitchen which is connected to the main building by a corridor perhaps with inside assistance (infiltration by militants is a wellknown problem). Although it took some time to subdue, and ISAF forces were involved perhaps decisively in containment and counterassault efforts, the attacks effectiveness was limited.

The attack, which occurred in an area slated to be placed under Afghan security forces control within weeks, serves as a reminder of the challenges inherent in maintaining security in a metropolitan area of some 4 million people. Attacks like this will not entirely cease. Thus, the balance between the effectiveness and proficiency of militant attacks and the ability of indigenous security forces to contain them will be increasingly critical as ISAF forces move into more of an advisory and assistance role.

Cross-Border Attacks
Eastern zone border police commander Brig. Gen. Aminollah Amarkhel submitted his resignation June 29 to protest increased rocket fire into the provinces of Nangarhar and Kunar over the past month and the lack of response from the Afghan government and foreign forces. The Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) accuses the Pakistani government of launching about 500 rockets during that time span killing 91 civilians and displacing more than 700 families, according to Afghan officials. While these numbers might be inflated, the Afghan parliament expressed concern July 2 over the lack of success in diplomatic talks between Afghan and Pakistani officials. Pakistan denied any role in the rocket attacks. But NDS spokesman Lotfollah Mashal said there is evidence the attacks used heavy artillery shells to which the Taliban and al Qaeda have no access, indicating possible Pakistani involvement. The Afghan army reportedly increased its presence at the Pakistani-Afghan border following the July 2 parliamentary meeting. Pakistani armed forces also increased their numbers on the border, launching an offensive in the Kurram Agency in an effort to reopen the road to Parachinar and clear the area of militants. Parachinar lies on the border with Afghanistan and, according to Pakistani Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, has been cut off from the rest of Pakistan and subjected to sustained militant attacks. Cross-border attacks, a longstanding problem, are exacerbating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Each accuses the other of being unable to control border violence, and each threatens to take action against the attacks. Much of the border region is subject neither to Kabul nor Islamabad and is home to numerous militant groups seeking to take advantage of tensions and changes in the security situation as the United States and its allies begin to draw down their forces.

Moving the War Eastward

The ISAF is also looking to shift its focus to the border region. Petraeus, the outgoing commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, announced that the U.S. fight in Afghanistan will shift to the east, from its current focus in Helmand and Kandahar, to an area along the Pakistani-Afghan border that is home to the Afghan Taliban, al Qaeda, the Haqqani group and Lashkar-e-Taiba. With attacks along the Pakistani-Afghan border heightening concerns among Pakistani and Afghan officials, this announcement comes at an opportune

time.

Petraeus quelled concerns about the announced drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, saying the withdrawal of surge forces will leave at least 68,000 U.S. troops in the country. Another 30,000 to 40,000 allied troops will remain in Afghanistan, and there will be an increase of 70,000 Afghan police and soldiers. Petraeus reported significant progress in Helmand and Kandahar provinces, where the majority of 30,000 U.S. forces were deployed in 2010. While the United States intends to consolidate its gains in those areas, any further progress will depend primarily on the efforts of Afghan forces and international donors.

Logistical Evolution
The United States is also moving to decrease its logistical reliance on the restive AfghanPakistani border region, the Washington Post reported July 2. Unnamed Pentagon officials told the Post that the United States hopes to be moving three quarters of its supplies through the Northern Distribution Network by the end of this year a marked shift from a 90 percent reliance on Pakistani routes in 2009. This would remarkably alter the vulnerability of U.S. lines of communication, which while moving through Pakistan have suffered constant attacks as well as stoppages often politically motivated. While these incidents have not caused operationally relevant delays (though some have reportedly come close), the shift in the amount of materiel moved through the north would lessen the U.S. logistical reliance on Islamabad.

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