Greening Growing Cities: Delivering Climate-Smart Mobility What Does it Mean in Practice

June 25, 2011 CIF Partnership Forum

Jamie Leather Asian Development Bank

A Crisis in Transport and Urban Development

Congestion costs 2-5% of Asian GDP Road accidents cost 2-5% of Asian GDP Local pollution - respiratory health cost Energy use ~ 30% of World energy y $ / Fuel security - US$50-150/barrel CO2 - 23% from transport sector Economic development Equitable access q Quality of Life

Impacts

Urban Expansion p
Kuala Lumpur 1989-2002
Built up area doubled - 385 to 805 sq km Population increase - 2.7 to 5 million Density decrease - 7,130 to 6,160 per sq km

1989

2001

Urban Transport Managing Uncertainty M i U i

Kolkata
Pop: 7.8 million Density 16,200 per sq. km Built up area: 480 sq. kms p q If Density decrease (3,000/sq.km) Population increase
All cities 2,790 2,300 5,270 4,345 9,470 6,630 10,010 9,250 6,955 6,785 17,980 13,720 25,360 16,495 15,380 9,350 0 2000 5,000 1990 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 6,485 5,470 North Am erica Europe

How best to provide access and/or mobility?

Sub Saharan Africa

North Africa

Latin Am erica

South/ Central Asia

Southeast Asia

E Asia

Density (persons per sq. km.)

Source: Angel 2005

Vehicle growth projections

450 400 800 700

MotorizationI Index(V/1000P)

T TotalVehicles( (inmillions)

350 300

600

500 250 400 200 300 150 100 50 0 200

100

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 ( j ) ASEAN(MajorCountries)
PRC China

INDIA

OECDNorthAmerica

OECDEurope p

OECDPacific

TotalVehicles (inmillions) (LeftAxis)

Motorization Index (V/1000 P) (RightAxis)

Motorization Index
450 450 800 800 400 700 700

MotorizationIndex(V/100 nIndex(V/100 00P) Motorization 00P)

To otalVehicles(in Tot talVehicles(inmillions) nmillions)

350

600

300

500
250

400
200

300 150 150 200 200

100 100

50 50

100 100

0 0

0 0

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 2005 2008 2015 2025 2035 ASEAN(MajorCountries) ASEAN(MajorCountries)
PRC China

INDIA

OECDNorthAmerica

OECDEurope

OECDPacific OECDPacific

TotalVehicles(inmillions)(LeftAxis) TotalVehicles(inmillions)(LeftAxis)

MotorizationIndex(V/1000P)(RightAxis) MotorizationIndex(V/1000P)(RightAxis)

Road to Nowhere
Beijing, 2010 j g,

Predict and Provide

The city of today

and tomorrow!

THE SOLUTIONS

A Sustainable Transport Path

Solutions for Sustainable T S t i bl Transport t

Avoid

Shift

Improve

Avoid the need to travel

Shift to more efficient transport modes

Improve fuel and vehicle technologies

Avoid the Need for Travel: Transport and L d U I T d Land Use Integration i
Understand the direct relationship between land use and the need to travel:
Improve the access to goods and service while minimizing the need to travel Village concept of high density urban planning within mega cities Linking these villages with efficient public PP P transport P

P T T P P T T T T T T

Transit Orientated Design Behavioral changes

P P P P P

Shift Travel Patterns: Public Transport NMT and Private Transport, Vehicle Use
P bli transport systems th t provide d Public t t t that id door-to-door t d solutions Safe, secure and user-friendly high quality public user friendly mass-transport Pedestrian zones and walkways Segregated cycle paths Park-and-ride car and bike parks Market instruments that charge full cost and cost of externalities to private motorized transport
vehicle registration, parking, congestion pricing (ERP) g ,p g, g p g( )

Improve Transport: Vehicle, Vehicle Engine Technology and Fuel Sources

Vehicle energy efficiency and emissions worldwide standards, advances (south-south) C Correctly implemented and rigorously enforced tl i l t d d i l f d vehicle inspection programs Achieve a substantial portion of on road on-road transport to clean and CO2 efficient fuels

Same Principles but Different Requirements

Principles p Avoid Developed p Countries Reduce travel through traffic demand management (TDM) Developing p g Countries Avoid unnecessary g generation of travel through integrated land use and traffic management Shift investment focus to NMT and public transport Ensure that future vehicles are as clean as possible and enhance e-vehicle programs

Shift

Shift from private vehicles to NMT and public transport Clean up existing vehicles and fuels

Improve

Managing Demand to Available Supply

Press Office City of Munster, Germany

Transport Co-Benefits p
Pollution Improve - reduce emissions per kilometer Technology/ vehicle change Behavioral change (Fleet mng, driver training) Fuel-switch (CNG, LPG Fuel switch (CNG LPG, biofuels) Shift - reduce emissions per unit transported Passenger transport: Mode switch Usage of larger units p p Improved occupation rates Freight transport Avoid - reduce number of trips Land-use Behavioral change TDM/TOD +++ ++ +++ +++ ++ ++ +++ + ++ ++ ++ + ++ ++ +++ ++ ++ ++ +++ ++ ++ ++ + ? ? + ? CO2 Congestion

Integrated Solutions are Required

Greasing the Cogs: Where is the Biggest Impact

Key Issues for dicsussion: How to use CTF most effectively H ff i l

Transformational impact at the scale required to impact catalyze a change in mindset Measurement cross cutting (CO2 and development impacts) i t ) Enabling environment institutions, policy, finance, stakeholder participation p p Social issues pro-poor, inclusive, gender

Our Sustainable Transport Initiative will make more cities more people-friendly and advance people friendly climate change mitigation objectives.
Haruhiko Kuroda President, Asian Development Bank P id t A i D l tB k 2009 Delhi Sustainable Development Summit

Thank you

Jamie Leather jleather@adb.org