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July 2011

A Monthly Wealth Journal

The Path To Wealth

WEALTH MANAGEMENT

ASSOCIATION FOR LIFE

Watch how your wealth has the potential to make it big.

Equities | Commodities | IPO | Mutual Fund | Insurance Distribution Wealth Management | PMS | Investment Banking | Fixed Income | Property Broking

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Contents
The Road Ahead Wealth Overview Market Round Up -Equity Model Portfolios Sector of the month Stock pick of the month Technical Market Outlook Derivative Market Outlook Mutual Fund round up Insurance Bond Market Outlook Currency Market Outlook Real Estate Opportunities Commodity round up Alternative Investment Ideas 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 13-14 15 16

The Road Ahead


There a growing perception that the current government under the leadership of Manmohan Singh is one of the most corrupt. The questions over various issues like unearthing of scams, standoff with civil members on drafting of Lokpal bill, government's sincerity in unearthing of black money and the growing disconnect between the PM and Congress president Sonia Gandhi has put the PM on the back foot. While various steps are being taken by the PM to change the negative perception, still lot needs to be done to improve governance and fast track policy changes. The Indian economy continues to face headwinds as WPI inflation for May at 9.06%, was higher than expected. The fuel inflation is further expected to rise as government raised the price of diesel by `3/l, kerosene by `2/l and lpg by `50 / cylinder. Continuing with the policy of monetary tightening, the RBI further increased the repo and reverse repo rate by 25 bps to 7.5% and 6.5% respectively. The IIP figure, which has been moved to a new base year of 200405, stood at 6.3% for April against 8.8% in March and continues to indicate a slowdown in industrial growth. The exports for May have increased by 56.9% to $25b . However, the imports have also increased by 54.08% , resulting in a trade deficit of $15b, which is the highest since Aug 2008. Globally, we are facing challenges due to political instability, high commodity prices and high sovereign debt in many nations. The sovereign debt crisis in Greece has been partly been averted as IMF, Eurozone governments and investors have agreed to provide a total of about 85 billion euro package to avert default after Greece agreed to a austerity measures and reducing the fiscal deficit. However, the government in Greece and many other European countries face an uphill task and it would take a lot of effort and time for these economies to be back on track. The situation in US is also not encouraging and the recovery is seen to be weakening as QE 2 ended in June . Going ahead, the current financial year can be a difficult time for the corporate India due to rising raw material costs and interest rates. Slowdown in demand is visible in automobiles and FMCG and the net profit is expected to fall. However, the rural economy is expected to be robust after a good monsoon in the current season. Government should also bring about long pending policy changes and take correction in terms of improving governance . This would provide some stability to economic growth and improve investor sentiments. Regards, Gajendra Nagpal Founder & CEO Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt. Ltd.

Editor Assistant Editor

Vijay Agrawal Yatish Pandey

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Wealth Overview
Real Estate: Really worth investing
I am feeling very happy to see a solid revival in the equity markets in the last week of June. It has provided a much required relief to the sagging portfolio of investors who were suffering from low to range bound markets since last 3-4 months. It again reinforces the importance of asset allocation as in this month; commodities & other precious metals could not give any significant returns. We have been regularly putting emphasis on having an asset allocation strategy based on one's risk return profile. Taking it further I would like to deal with an asset class which is really close to all of us. Yes you guessed it right. It's real estate. It's has become an important component in the portfolio of most of the HNIs. Real estate investing has been around for thousands of years. Although the rules are different than the stock market, real estate investing can make you wealthy if done with due proper due diligence. Real estate has outperformed, most of the times, any other class of asset, if you take a five year view. If you are patient, if you have the time on hand and if you are a long-term investor, there is nothing like real estate. There are short-term blips that you would be careful of and you have to pick up real estate at the real right time and Price. Wealth managers have been suggesting to the Indian investors to invest in stocks, bonds, gold, and fixed deposits, as their traditional investment instruments, now they are increasingly looking for real estate properties as an alternate investment avenue to increase returns on their portfolios. The rapid growth in the real estate market, as an asset class, has drawn the property investors from around the major Indian cities. In fact, India's residential sector has been the most resilient against the slump in prices, and recovering steadily, assisted by the high demand for housing. While the residential real estate property prices slumped in the first two quarters of 2009, prices recovered rapidly towards the end of 2009 and have been showing steady performance since then. Investors have made decent money across the country especially in Tier II cities like Baroda, Indore, Cochin and Jaipur. Here we have seen a rapid shift in population from rural to urban areas & hence giving boost to the real estate investments. I am sure you must be wondering how to take advantage of the potential of the real estate as an asset class. You may invest in two ways as given below: Direct: You may buy the property directly in the form of land/plot/commercial premises and residential apartments. But this may or may not be feasible for everyone. People normally face two limitations while investing directly in real estates. On the one hand, the ticket size of the properties and second access to the investible property itself. Further you may feel comfortable in investing in real estate in your city of residence only. So, if it's feasible, it's surely a good asset class to be in. Indirect: Thanks to financial innovation, there are multiple ways of participating in the real estate growth opportunities. You can subscribe to following products to your portfolio as a part of your real estate portfolio. Real Estate PMS Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Stocks of Real Estate Companies PE products focused on Real Estate Looking into the possibility of generating excellent returns by this asset class, we would recommend enhancing your allocation to the real estate as an asset class positively. You may invest either directly or indirectly as suggested above. In the indirect segment, one such product available is a real estate fund by JM Financial which intend to generate returns by investing in rent yielding properties. It can be considered for participating in the high growth real estate sector. As a prudent investor, you are suggested to be in touch with your respective wealth manager for exploring many more opportunities in the real estate sector. Happy investing !!! Rajev B Sharma Country Head Wealth Management & Investment Banking Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt. Ltd

Market Round Up -Equity


Domestic Markets
Index May-11 June-11
Change Change %

Sectoral Indices Performance


High Low

Among the BSE sectoral indices, CG (+6.21%), FMCG ?

Sensex 18,503.28 18,845.87 Nifty 5560.15 5647.4

342.59 87.25

1.85% 18,873.39 17,314.38 1.57% 5,657.90 5,195.90

Global Markets
Index May-11 June-11 Change Change% High Low

(+4.85%), CD (+2.44%), Bankex (+2.22%), Power (+2.20%) ended positive. Realty ? (-7.26%), Oil&Gas (-4.02%), Metal (-2.27%) ended negative. Among other indices, BSE MidCap (-0.81%), SmallCap (? 0.96%) ended negative, while BSE100 (+0.85%) ended positive

Sectoral Indices
AUTO BANKEX CD CG FMCG

Dow Jones 12,569.79 12,414.34 -155.45 Nasdaq S&P 500 Nikkei CAC FTSE
1.6 1.4 1.2 1

-1.24% 12,569.34 11,821.96 -2.18% -1.83% 1.26% -0.62% -0.74% 2,834.05 1,345.20 9,849.69 4,015.85 5,995.20 2,599.86 1,258.07 9,318.62 3,742.31 5,644.40

2,835.30 1,345.20 9,693.73 4,006.94 5,990.00

2,773.52 1,320.64 9,816.09 3,982.21 5,945.70

-61.78 -24.56 122.36 -24.73 -44.3

HC IT METAL OIL&GAS POWER PSU

Nifty Index PCR


-8 -6 -4

REALTY TECk -2 0 2 4 6 8

PCR

0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Change (%)

Market News
FIIs ?were net buyers of `2662 cr (In May net sellers of 3705
40695 40696 40697 40700 40701 40702 40703 40704 40707 40708 40709 40710 40714 40715 40716 40717 40718 40721 40722 40723 40724 40711

cr). DIIs were net sellers of `100 cr (In May net buyers of `4093 cr) in cash market. IPOs ? open in June 2011: Rushil Dcor Ltd., Birla Pacific Medspa Ltd., Readymade Steel India Ltd. IPOs ? listed in June 2011: VMS Industries Ltd., Timbor Home Ltd. State-run Coal India Ltd (CIL), received 18 tenders from ? international companies for long-term thermal coal offtake agreements. The ?Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in South Indian states, especially Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, slowed down considerably and fell below the national average of 8.7%. State-run NMDC agreed to team up with Australia's ? Minemakers Ltd to develop a phosphate mine in Wonarah in northern Australia. Advance tax payments made by 100 firms based in Mumbai, ? India's financial capital, rose by 14% for the three months ending June, signaling moderate growth in corporate profits amid fears of shrinking margins. The ? Tata Steel board sold its entire stake of 26.27% in Riversdale Mining for A$1.06 billion.

Turnover
(` crs.)

May-11 305744 336688 1892896 69808 2605137

Jun-11 265177 322694 1784570 65733 2438176

Jun-10 372265 421843 1169942 71547 2035598

MoM
Change%

Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total

-13.27% -4.16% -5.72% -5.84% -6.41%

Highlights
Major ? global indices traded negative in the June month. In the ? US markets, Dow (-1.24%), Nasdaq (-2.18%), S&P500 (1.83%) ended negative. In major Asian Markets, Nikkei (+1.26%) ended positive. ? In the ? European markets CAC (-0.62%), FTSE (-0.74%) ended marginally negative inline with global peers. On the domestic front, Nifty gained 87.25 points (+1.57%) and ? Sensex gained 342.59 points (+1.85%) in the month of June. NSE ? Cash Turnover: `222,457 cr down 4.88% as compared to previous month (`233,876 cr) Total ? Derivative Turnover: `2,438,176 cr down 6.41% as compared to previous month (`2,605,138 cr). Turnover in index futures decreased by 13.27% over the ? previous month. Turnover in index options decreased by 5.72% over the ? previous month. Turnover in stock futures decreased by 4.16% over the previous ? month.

Model Portfolios
Indian Market surged 1.6% in the month of June after bottoming at 5250 (Nifty) level. Attractive valuation, expectation of normal monsoon and positive bias towards forthcoming results triggered robust inflows from the FII. Inflow of FII for June 2011 stood at ~`27bn while DII shied away from the markets. Indian economy is expected to face inflationary pressures in short run, especially after recent hike in fuel prices and lack of GoIs ability to address supply side constraints. We believe the markets would seek cues from the upcoming corporate earnings announcements. However, strong inflationary pressures with tight interest rate regime would affect company margins. Concerns over Greece debt crisis would also affect the sentiment of investor. Hence, considering various obstacles and challenges confronting Indian markets, we expect market (Nifty) to consolidate in the range of 5300-5900.
? We remain positive on the consumption story and maintain

positive bias towards infrastructure and capital goods space.

Stock movement
Stock ? Entered
State Bank of India, Godrej Consumer Product, Punj Lloyd, S.Kumar National, KEC International

Stock ? Exited
IVRCL Infra, MSP Steel, Shree Cement, Navbharat Venture,

Growth Portfolio
Objective
High Capital appreciation with moderate capital safety.
Sr.
No

Stock Name

% Wtg

Rec.Price Price 30th % return


Jun-2011

%return

(Since Inception) Jun-2011

BGR Energy.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Union Bank 3.4% Yes Bank 6.1% State Bank of India 3.4% Crompton Greaves 5.2% HCC 2.7% Punj Lloyd 2.1% UTV software 7.8% Aurobindo Pharma 4.6% Apollo Tyre 4.7% Tata Motor 4.8% GAIL 5.5% Reliance Ind 4.9% KEC International 5.3% Deepak Fertliser 7.3% United Phosphorus 4.2% Jain Irrigation 4.1% Godrej Cons. Product 6.6% S.Kumar Nat. 4.0% Cash 13.4% Total 100.0%
Growth

326.75 270.50 2305.00 177.35 61.50 71.50 465.40 192.10 58.80 1113.00 356.25 973.00 79.50 162.00 135.80 188.40 406.00 51.93

292.80 311.90 2405.95 259.20 31.95 75.85 826.60 172.50 78.25 993.50 441.25 897.60 79.25 166.60 152.82 170.65 430.25 53.95

-10.4% 15.3% 4.4% 46.2% -48.0% 6.1% 77.6% -10.2% 33.1% -10.7% 23.9% -7.7% -0.3% 2.8% 12.6% -9.4% 6.0% 3.9% 13.2%

-7.9% 3.8% 4.4% -1.8% -1.1% 6.1% 27.7% -2.3% 13.7% -9.1% -0.9% -5.7% -0.3% -6.0% -5.7% 1.9% 6.0% 3.9% 0.8%
Wtg

Optimizer Portfolio
Objective
Moderate Capital appreciation with substantial capital safety. Skewed towards Growth, value and large caps.
Sr.
No

Stock Name

% Wtg

Rec.Price Price 30th


Jun-2011

% return

%return

(Since Inception) Jun-2011

% Returns

Nifty

Top 5 Sectors

Since inception Performance For month of Jun Performance

13.2% -9.7% 0.8% -0.8%

22.9% 1.6%

Fertiliser & Chem Banking & Finance Oil and Gas


Auto & Auto Ancillary

Media

15.6% 13.0% 10.4% 9.5% 7.8%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Performance Highlights
The ? portfolio has underperformed Nifty by 9.7% since inception and 0.8% in the month of June 2011. UTV ? Software, Apollo Tyres, Punj Lloyd and State Bank of India were the top gainers during the month. S. Kumar Nat., Tata Motors, Union Bank and Deepak ? Fertilisers were the laggards losing 5.7-9.1% in the month.

Hero Honda 4.3% Bank of Baroda 6.7% ICICI Bank 2.9% Syndicate Bank 0.6% Larsen & Toubro 4.1% Crompton Greaves 3.5% Castrol India 11.6% Oil India 7.5% Dabur India 8.9% TCS 11.7% Infosys Tech 3.1% HCL Tech 4.6% Glaxosmith Pharma 7.7% Aurobindo Pharma 5.2% Bharti Airtel 3.2% Cash 14.3% Total 100.0% Growth

1544.30 425.65 1205.00 156.00 1516.00 261.10 240.93 1140.55 70.65 532.95 2615.10 358.85 1454.40 191.76 405.35

1877.75 871.90 1093.10 117.45 1822.65 259.20 526.20 1301.65 114.05 1180.35 2907.40 493.45 2353.85 172.50 395.25

21.6% 104.8% -9.3% -24.7% 20.2% -0.7% 118.4% 14.1% 61.4% 121.5% 11.2% 37.5% 61.8% -10.0% -2.5% 51.2%

1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 10.9% -1.8% 5.8% 1.2% -2.4% 1.9% 4.1% -4.1% 1.3% -2.3% 5.6% 1.3% Wtg

% Returns

Nifty

Top 5 Sectors

Since inception 51.2% Performance + 28.3% For month of Jun 1.3% Performance - 0.3%

22.9% 1.6%

IT Software Pharmaceuticals Chemicals Banking & Finance FMCG

19.4% 13.0% 11.6% 10.2% 8.9%

Strategy
During the month, we have increased our exposure in FMCG ? and Banking Sectors; while maintaining our focus towards agricultural space.

Performance Highlights
? portfolio has outperformed Nifty by 28.3% since The

inception.

Model Portfolios
The ?portfolio has marginally underperformed Nifty by 0.3% on monthly basis. 73% ? of the stocks in the portfolios gave positive monthly return. For ? the month of June, Optimiser recorded robust performance backed by 11% return in L&T and 5% return in Castrol India. Dabur ? India, Aurobindo Pharma and HCL were laggards during the month, all losing more than 2%.
% Returns Growth Nifty Top 5 Sectors Wtg

Since inception 49.7% Performance +26.8% For month of Jun 3.0% Performance +1.4%

22.9% 1.6%

FMCG Chemicals Pharmaceuticals Capital Goods Oil and Gas

15.8% 11.6% 10.4% 10.4% 10.0%

Performance Highlights
The ?portfolio has outperformed the Nifty Index by 26.8% since inception and 1.4% for the month. The ?outperformance during the month was led by Britannia, Gillette. L&T, NTPC and BHEL. However, Dr. Reddy and Reliance followed by Crompton remained laggards for the month

Strategy
The ? stocks in our portfolio represent the best possible picks in their respective sectors and we continue to believe that there is further potential upside from its current levels. High ? inflation has led the Reserve Bank of India to hike interest rates aggressively more than 8 times over 10 months. The ill effect of high interest rate and slower growth have already been largely factored in stock prices. The market has rallied for past two weeks which has helped to lift sentiment. However, any negative earnings surprise in the 1QFY12 coupled with global factors such as crude oil and Europe sovereign-debt crisis can affect the sustain ability. We will ? also continue to look out for value picks for the portfolio.

Strategy
Broadly, higher fund allocation in Budget 2012 for ? infrastructure and recent move to allow FII to invest more in Indian infrastructure via debt augurs well not only for the infrastructure sector but also to the overall economy of the country, as Infra spending has positive cascading effects on other sectors of the economy. Key ?catalysts to market performance over next quarter would be RBI policies to control inflation and Global market sentiments, as risk loom large over US and other Euro nations debt concern. Currently, market has come off from yearly lows and trading ? at reasonable valuations. The upcoming results and addressing of both the domestic and global concerns in next few weeks would give further direction to the market. We ?would continue to invest in stocks, depending on opportunity keeping fund's objective.

Stock movement
? Entered Stocks

No changes during the month ? Exited Stocks No changes during the month

Defensive Portfolio
Objective
Concentrating on stable large cap, blue-chip companies aimed at clients with moderate to low risk appetite.
Sr.
No

Stock Name

% Wtg Rec.Price Price 31st


May-2011

% return

%return

(Since Inception) May-2011

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Punjab National Bank Bank of Baroda ICICI Bank BHEL Crompton Greaves Dabur India Godrej Cons. Product Gillette India Britannia Ind Castrol India Larsen & Toubro Dr. Reddy's Lab Glaxosmith Pharma NTPC Oil India Reliance Industries Cash Total

2.3% 2.1% 0.9% 8.4% 2.0% 2.4% 8.6% 3.0% 1.9% 11.6% 6.6% 2.9% 7.5% 6.1% 7.6% 2.4% 23.9% 100.0%

678.45 425.65 950.00 2082.96 261.10 69.20 235.15 1414.25 440.00 240.93 1510.70 765.45 1454.40 205.55 1140.55 955.00

1089.60 871.90 1093.10 2046.55 259.20 114.05 430.25 2114.80 477.50 526.20 1822.65 1533.40 2353.85 186.85 1301.65 897.60

60.6% 104.8% 15.1% -1.7% -0.7% 64.8% 83.0% 49.5% 8.5% 118.4% 20.6% 100.3% 61.8% -9.1% 14.1% -6.0% 49.7%

-0.9% 1.0% 0.7% 5.3% -1.8% -2.4% 3.1% 13.4% 14.4% 5.8% 10.9% -5.1% 1.3% 10.6% 1.2% -5.7% 3.0%

Stock movement
? Entered Stocks

No portfolio changes during the month

Stocks ? Exited
No portfolio changes during the month

Sector of the month-Indian Broking Industry


Introduction
The strong GDP growth of ~8%+ has been able to attract investors to the capital markets over the years. In the past 5 years, following an increased participation from institutional (both foreign and domestic) as well as retail investors, volumes have increased at CAGR 55%. Along with this the FII registration has gone upto 1721 in 2011 from 513 in 2003. Positive regulatory changes, launching of various instruments & increased foreign participation has resulted in indices giving 100% return since FY05. However, FY11 remained a lackluster year, with FII investments declining at ~`173 bn as compared to ~`273 Bn in FY10 along with retail investor's participation remaining low.

Trends in Broking Industry in FY11


The secondary capital market volumes clocked a growth of 40% YoY to `1330 bn in FY11 from `950 bn in FY10. ? Presently close to 86% of the capital market volumes comprise of F&O volumes as compared to 76% in FY10. Change in the capital ? market volume mix has tempered market share of top capital market intermediaries during FY11.

Market share
Brokerage House India Infoline Motilal Oswal Edelweiss Religare Kotak FY11 4 2.5 3.9 3 3.4 FY10 3.8 2.8 4.5 3.4 4.1

Brokerage industry has started diversifying their revenue streams due to change in volume mix which has led to fall in equity broking ? revenues. In H2FY11 we have seen commodity, Investment banking, financing & lending business contributing more revenues in total revenue. The outbound transaction segment M&A deal values increased to $50 bn across 662 deals in CY10, as compared to $12 bn across 330 deals in CY09. A total of over $5 bn was raised by 45 companies via QIPs in FY11 & $9 bn were raised across 57 IPOs in FY11. Private equity deal value was $9 bn across over 300 transactions in FY11, much higher than the $5.5 bn across 276 transactions witnessed in FY10. Moreover, lower delivery volumes in the cash segment have impacted brokerage yields during FY11 which has seen a drop. However, cost ? effective distribution model franchisee and online trading through portals has helped the brokerage houses to keep a check on its operating costs.

Average blended yield


Brokerage House India Infoline Motilal Oswal Edelweiss Religare Q4FY11 3.5 bps 4.6 bps 4.2 bps 3.55 bps Q3FY11 4.2 bps 5.5 bps 4.3 bps 3.93 bps

Overview
As a ?percentage of the total population, the retail investor participation in capital market is just 1.3%, whereas in the US and China it is 27.7% and 10.5% respectively. Therefore, regulator along with stock broking companies should focus more on developing the retail business segment going ahead. The ?slower growth in US & other developed markets along with debt crisis in Europe to provide opportunity to emerging markets especially countries like India which has an edge due to strong economic growth going ahead. Other ? financial avenues like Investment banking, commodity markets, credit & financing business to open more growth opportunity for the broking industry. Brokerage industry diversification through inorganic growth route likely - acquisition of Anagram capital (well known retail brokerage ? house) by Edelweiss Capital (prominent institutional brokerage house and investment banker) is an initiation of consolidations in the industry. In contrast to this, Reliance capital, which has a well established retail broking arm Reliance money, has acquired an institutional investment advisory firm Quant capital. We expect the brokerage industry is ripe for consolidation in near future. Share ? prices of the top broking firms are trading near their 52-week low & valuations are attractive. Going forward, if the market conditions improve investors with high risk can accumulate large caps like India Infoline, Motilal Oswal, Edelweiss etc.

Stock of the month


Tecpro Systems Ltd.
Buy
CMP: `250* Target: `300

Tecpro Systems Ltd. (TSL) is an established material handling company with presence in the coal handling (19% market share) and ash handling (15% market share) for power, steel, cement and other sectors. TSL has recently forayed into BoP segment and has secured two orders worth `29.7bn (68% of its current order-book). We believe TSL would be key beneficiary, given its leadership position in material / ash handling business and strong growth in underlying industry. With revenue and profit expected to grow at CAGR of 25% and 18% respectively over FY13, recommend Buy on the stock for price target of `300 (+20%).

Manufacturing Locations
TSL manufactures stackers, reclaimers, crushers, screens, feeders and fabricated structures at its factory in Bawal, Haryana. TSL's plant at Bhiwadi, Rajasthan manufactures pulleys, idler & rollers, structures, feeders, screens, conveyor systems, conveyor components, crushers and screen parts. TSL also has a casting unit in Bhiwadi for both material handling and ash handling equipments. The third unit at Bhiwadi, Rajasthan only manufactures ash handling equipments.

Investment Rationale
Strong ? positive outlook for core infrastructure industry (Power, Steel Cement), directly linked, augurs well for the business prospects of TSL. Established player (executed highest orders for coal handling during eleventh five year plan) in ash and material handling segment and ? foray into BoP segment (synchronization and diversification) would lead to growth with diversification Having secured orders worth `2.24bn in Waste heat recovery (WHR) from Cement Industry, order intake momentum in this segment is ? likely continue. WHR is a new concept and is gaining momentum in the Indian cement industry. This module of alternative energy for cement plants can generate, depending on the capacity of the cement plant, ~ 2 to 15-18MW of power in cement plant Strong ? technical expertise (in-house and through collaborations) enables TSL to offer its product and services on turnkey basis within a stipulated time at competitive rates Clientele with strong base (like NTPC, BHEL, Steel Authority, Reliance Energy, Mecon, Lanco, Punj Lloyd, JSW Energy, Tata Power, ? Hindalco, and Shree Cement) mitigates risk of project deferment or cancellation Revenue visibility over FY13e on the back of strong order-book of `43.7bn (2.2x FY11 sales) ?

Key Risks
Key risks are a) non availability of long term project funding with higher debt cost could slow down growth in core sector which would have direct impact on the business and growth prospects of TSL and b) rise in working capital would lead to stress on cash flow and higher interest cost.

Financials
For Q4FY11, TSL's revenue was `9.6bn (+30% YoY) as compared to `7.4bn during same quarter last year. EBITDA for the quarter was ` 2bn (+32% YoY) compared to `1.5bn during corresponding quarter last year. PAT increased by 21% to `1.1bn. For full year FY11, TSL's revenues grew by 35% YoY to `19.7bn. Operating profit at `3.01bn was higher by 52% with operating profit margin of 15%. Over FY13e, we expect company's revenue and net profit after tax to grow @ CAGR of 25% and 18% respectively.

Outlook & Valuation


At the CMP, TSL trades at 6.6x our FY13e earnings estimate, EV/Sales of 0.4x and EV/EBITDA of 3.4x (FY13e). We expect company to generate RoE of 22.1% in FY13e . Given 18% CAGR growth of its net profit over FY13 and RoCE of 27%, we set price objective of `300 (exit PE of 8x its FY13e earning per share of `37.7).

*30th June.2011 www.nseindia.com

Technical Market Outlook


Economic Data
USA, July 2011
July 08 ? - Unemployment Rate, JUN, Survey 9.00%, Prior 9.10% July 08 ? - Wholesale Inventories, MAY, Survey 0.60%, Prior 0.80% July 09 ? - Consumer Credit, MAY, Survey $5.000B, Prior $6.247bn July 12 ? - Trade Balance, MAY, Prior -$43.7bn July 13 ? - Import Price Index (MoM), JUN, 0.20% July 13 ? - Minutes of FOMC Meeting July 13 ? - Monthly Budget Statement, JUN, Prior -$57.6bn July 14 ? - Producer Price Index (MoM), JUN, Prior 0.20% July 14 ? - Advance Retail Sales, JUN, Prior -0.20% July 14 ? - Business Inventories, MAY, Prior 0.80% July 15 ? - Consumer Price Index (MoM, JUN, Prior 0.20% July 15 ? - Capacity Utilization, JUN, Prior 76.70% July 15 ? - Industrial Production, JUN, Prior 0.10% July 19 ? - Housing Starts MOM%, JUN July 19 ? - Building Permits MOM%, JUN, Prior 8.70% July 20 ? - Existing Home Sales MoM, JUN, Prior -3.80% July 21 ? - Leading Indicators, JUN, Prior 0.80% July 26 ? - Consumer Confidence, JUL, Prior 58.5 July 26 ? - New Home Sales MoM, JUN, Prior-2.10% July 27 ? - Durable Goods Orders, JUN, Prior 1.90% July 28 ? - Pending Home Sales MoM, JUN, Prior 8.20% July 29 ? - Employment Cost Index, 2Q, Prior 0.60% July 29 ? - GDP QoQ (Annualized), 2Q A, Prior 1.90% July 29 ? - Personal Consumption, 2Q A, Prior 2.20% July 29 ? - GDP Price Index, 2Q A, Prior 2.00% July 29 ? - Core PCE QoQ, 2Q A, Prior 1.60%

India, July 2011


? - Food Articles WPI YoY, Jun 25, Prior 7.78% July 07 ? - Fuel Power Light WPI YoY, Jun 25, Prior 12.98% July 07 ? - Primary Articles WPI YoY, Jun 25, Prior 11.84% July 07 ? - Industrial Production YoY, MAY, Prior 6.30% July 12

July 14 ? - Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%, JUN, Prior 9.06% July 14 ? - Food Articles WPI YoY, Jul 02 July 14 ? - Fuel Power Light WPI YoY, Jul 02 July 14 ? - Primary Articles WPI YoY, Jul 02 July 21 ? - Food Articles WPI YoY, Jul 09 July 21 ? - Fuel Power Light WPI YoY, Jul 09 July 21 ? - Primary Articles WPI YoY, Jul 09 July 26 ? - India REPO Cutoff Yld, Jul 26, Prior 7.50% July 26 ? - Cash Reserve Ratio, Jul 26, Prior 6.00% July 26 ? - Reverse Repo Rate, Jul 26, Prior 6.50% July 28 ? - Food Articles WPI YoY, Jul 16 July 28 ? - Fuel Power Light WPI YoY, Jul 16 July 28 ? - Primary Articles WPI YoY, Jul 16

Nifty Monthly Technical Outlook


Nifty ended the month up 87 points and closed positive at 5647.40 levels, after making a low of 5196. Technically Nifty on monthly chart has formed bullish hammer candle stick formation with long lower shadow, which indicates sideways to positive trading range between 5450-5940 at 23.60% retracement at 5378 levels. On monthly charts Nifty finds resistance around previous top of 5850-5940 and supports are placed at 5500-5400 levels. Some leading indicators like MACD, RSI and Momentum indicators are neutral zone, whereas buying pressure at support zone when it occurs, so Nifty would continue till 5850-5950 levels. If Nifty breaks below 5370, Nifty can take next area of supports 52005070 levels. Nifty is trading in a rising channel and heading towards resistance at 5850-5950 levels. In wide range Nifty has good supports at 5400 and resistance at 6000. Stochastic and the RSI are overbought but remain sideways trading possible in short-term. One can accumulate stocks around supports with stop loss of 5370 on closing basis. For short term trading long potions, stop loss of 5370 is advisable on closing basis. If Nifty crosses lower below 5370 levels, it may take target 5200 and 5100 on lower levels as well.

Technical Markets Outlook

Source : Iris

Derivative Market Outlook


Sector Wise Roll Over And Volume Change
0.6 3

Index Future Analysis


400000 0
Change in OI Change in Volume

CNXIT

MININIFTY

NIFTYMCAP50

-400000

Change in OI and Volume

0.4

-800000 -1200000 -1600000 -2000000 -2400000 -2800000 -3200000 -3600000 -4000000

0.3

1.5

0.2

0.1

0.5

0
Bank IT Power Realty Cement Chem&Fert Oil&Gas Pharma FMCG Media Sugar Hotel Auto Infra Misc Metal&Mining Logistics CapitalGoods Telecom Textiles

BANKNIFTY

Index

Roll Over

Change in GDQ

Change in OI
16,000,000 14,000,000
CE PE

Index Option Analysis


CE PE

20000000 18000000

12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000

14000000

Open Interest

16000000

6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300

Open Interest

12000000 10000000 8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 0


5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300

(2,000,000) (4,000,000) (6,000,000) (8,000,000) (10,000,000)

Strike

Strike

Outlook
Nifty traded highly volatile in the June series. Series began with FII buying in the first week, but weak global markets and economic data forced investors to sell stocks. Nifty recovered in the last week on heavy FII inflows and gained 4.34% from May to June series. The cash market series opened at 5413.70, made a low at 5195.90, high at 5657.90 and closed at 5647.40. Short covering by call sellers also helped Nifty gain further. The July series is likely to see more upsides in midcap and smallcap sectors. Sugar, Fertilizer FMCG, Banking stocks look good for short term upside. Nifty is likely to consolidate in the 5400-5700 region before any breakout.

Top Five Gainers- Price


PUNJLLOYD BATAINDIA TTML PANTALOONR KTKBANK
Change in Price - Future 40.24% 33.48% 31.85% 23.61% 22.43%

Highest Roll Over Top Five Losers- Price


GTL GTLINFRA LITL TATAMTRDVR SRTRANSFIN
Change in Price - Future -77.93% -54.38% -28.13% -15.18% -14.23% Roll Over Sector

RUCHISOYA MCLEODRUSS PIRHEALTH TATAMTRDVR DCHL

91.68% 87.34% 86.80% 83.99% 83.04%

Misc FMCG Pharma Auto Media

Lowest Roll Over Market Statistics


26th-May 30th-Jun Change

Nifty VIX PCR

5412.35 19.18% 0.97

5647.2 18.41% 1.03

4.34% -4.01% 6.19%

PATNI SUNTV BRFL YESBANK SOBHA

Roll Over 23.61% 24.38% 26.23% 29.21% 30.22%

Sector IT Media Textiles Bank Realty

NIFTY

0.5

2.5

Mutual Fund round up


Top Performer across category
Scheme Name
Tata Infrastructure Tax Saving(G) ICICI Pru FMCG(G) Sahara ST Bond(G) SBI Magnum Emerging Businesses(G) Birla SL India GenNext(G)

Pick of the month


Return (%)
105.71 6.66 5.19 5.01 4.55

NAV 04-July-2011
15.26 74.48 12.09 43.15 25.89

HDFC Mid - Cap Opportunities Fund


HDFC Mid - Cap Opportunities Fund is an open end equity Mid Cap scheme, the aim of the fund is to generate long-term capital appreciation from a portfolio that is substantially constituted of equity and equity related securities of small and mid-cap companies. The last 1 year return stands at 13.68% (Absolute) and 12.75% (CAGR).Since inception. Major investments of nearly 15.70% are in Pharmaceuticals & Drugs and 9.8% in Auto Ancillary.

Top Movers : Equity Diversified Category


Scheme Name
SBI Magnum Emerging Businesses(G) Birla SL India GenNext(G) Birla SL Buy India(G) Religare Mid Cap(G) Religare Mid N Small Cap(G)

NAV 04-July-2011
43.15 25.89 42.42 14.86 14.88

Return (%)
5.01 4.55 3.90 3.07 2.78

HDFC Top 200 Fund


HDFC Top 200 Fund is open end equity Large cap Scheme, to generate long term capital appreciation from a portfolio of equity and equity linked instruments. The investment portfolio for equity and equity linked instruments will be primarily drawn from the companies in the BSE 200 Index. The last 1 year return stands at 9.77% (Absolute) and 22.86% (CAGR).Since inception. Major investments of nearly 12.20% are in Bank - Public, 9.9% are in Bank Private and 9.9% in IT Software.

Top Laggards : Equity Diversified Category


Scheme Name
India Advantage Fund L&T Small Cap(G) SBI Magnum Comma(G) Sundaram S.M.I.L.E Fund(G) HSBC Midcap Equity(G)

NAV 04-July-2011
211.13 4.82 23.80 30.52 19.6

Return (%)
-4.41 -3.62 -2.86 -2.65 -2.44

MF Activity
40 30 20

Nifty Vs FII Equity inflows


FIIs in Cr
2000 1500 1000 500 5300 0 5200
1-Jun 2-Jun 3-Jun 6-Jun 7-Jun 8-Jun 9-Jun 10-Jun 13-Jun 14-Jun 15-Jun 16-Jun 17-Jun 20-Jun 21-Jun 22-Jun 23-Jun 24-Jun

Billions

NIFTY
5700 5600

10 0
1-Jun 3-Jun 7-Jun 9-Jun 13-Jun 15-Jun 17-Jun 21-Jun 23-Jun 27-Jun

5500 5400

-10 -20 -30

Equity

Debt

-500 -1000

27-Jun 28-Jun 29-Jun 30-Jun

5100 5000

FII

Nifty

Source: Accord Fintech for All MF Data

29-Jun

10

Insurance
Kotak Capital Multiplier Plan
Key Features
The ?minimum age at entry is 18 years and maximum age at entry is 60 years. You ? have the option of paying premiums in quarterly, halfyearly or yearly installments. You ?have the benefit of a 15-day free look period. Section 80C, 10(10D) of Income Tax Act would apply. ? Premiums paid for Critical Illness Benefit qualify for benefits under Section 80D. These benefits are as per the currently prevailing tax regulations. You ?can choose to start making withdrawals from the vesting age, subject to a maximum of 65 yrs. Accumulate more through the bonuses declared regularly by ? the company Invest ? your surplus monies top-up premium

Death Benefit
During the build-up phase: - In the event of unfortunate death, your beneficiary would get the higher of basic sum assured (less premiums due but not paid) or Accumulation Account. In addition, 10% of the basic sum assured and the highest of all lump sum injections made and the Supplementary Accumulation Account will also be paid. During the withdrawal phase :- In the event of unfortunate death, your beneficiary would get 10% of the basic sum assured upto 75 years of life assured's age and the balance in the Accumulation Account (into which the Supplementary Accumulation Account is added).

Maturity Benefit
This is a participating plan and you are entitled to the higher of the basic sum assured or the Accumulation Account on maturity along with the balance in the Supplementary Accumulation Account.

Objective
The Kotak Capital Multiplier Plan is a participating plan that is built in such a way that it allows your money to multiply, and gives you the flexibility of using this money the way you need it, in regular withdrawals. This is an endowment plan, which is very flexible, and has a lot of other in-built benefits.

Top Up Premium
In case you have any surplus funds you may invest them at anytime in the policy. This facility of lump sum injections allows you to augment your savings in the build-up phase, in addition to the regular premiums. A Supplementary Accumulation Account is created to hold these lump sums. Funds in Top-Up Account continue to earn bonus at the same rate as that of the Accumulation Account.

Policy Terms
? Minimum - 5 yrs & Maximum - 30 yrs

Entry Age
Entry Age Maturity Age Minimum 18 yrs 23 yrs Maximum 60 yrs 65 yrs

Premium Minimum Premium


`10, 000 p.a

Top Up Premium
Min - `10,000.Max - 25% of basic sum assured during policy year.

Benefits Tax Benefit


Section 80C, 10(10D) of Income Tax Act would apply. Premiums paid for Critical Illness Benefit qualify for benefits under Section 80D.

Premium Payment
Annual, Half-yearly, Quarterly or Monthly.

11

Bond Market Outlook


In one of the most awaited events by the bond market in the month of June ,RBI Continued it's policy of monetary tightening owing to Inflationary pressures and increased repo rate & reverse repo by 25 bps to 7.5% & 6.5% respectively, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate to 8.5% with immediate effect. However, it retained cash reserve ratio at 6% in it's mid quarter policy review announced on 16th June 2011. In one more important development during the month of June which will have an immediate impact on Inflation, the Government of India (GoI) has announced an 8 to 22% hike in prices of diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for domestic use and kerosene. The price hike has made diesel dearer by `3 per litre (+7.9%); kerosene by `2 per litre (+22%) and cooking gas by `50 per 14.2 kg cylinder (+14.4%). Simultaneously, custom duty on crude oil and all petroleum products have been removed which until now was levied at 5%. Further, import duties on petrol and diesel have been reduced from 7.5% to 2.5% and excise duty on diesel has been reduced o `2 per litre from `4.6 per litre currently. Post the recent rate hike by the RBI, rates at the shorter end of the yield curve has fallen like nine pins. There is a broad consensus in the market place that yields have peaked off for now as we would likely be at the fag end of the monetary tightening cycle. Liquidity in the banking System has tightened further i.e. the banking system which was borrowing from the RBI in Repo to the tune of around 50,000 crore is now borrowing 80,000-90,000 cr due to advance tax outflows . There was apprehension that Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) would be availed of by banks to fund the liquidity shortfall which would take the overnight rates to 8.5% and above. This phenomenon was short lived and despite the actual tightness coming, yields in the 3m rates have fallen sharply (currently at around 8.5% levels). 1 year rates have also eased off by 20-30 bps. We have a structural liquidity deficit of around 55,000-60,000 crore which needs to be funded and only possible ways to fund the same is either thru cut in CRR or OMO (Open market operations) or intervention in forex market. Though we believe that OMO in the second half could alleviate some liquidity concerns, the same could stoke inflation and hence not a very preferred option. Hence for now, we would expect normalized liquidity conditions (as stated in the deficit band above) to prevail, which would mean overnight rates are likely hover around 7.5%.

Currency Market Outlook


The euro rose against the U.S. dollar in the month of June and headed for a second quarterly gain as Greece passed crucial bills to avert immediate default and on expectations that euro-zone interest rates will rise again next week. Month-end flows also supported the euro, helping propel it to a three-week high above $1.45. The euro also climbed to a 15-month high against a broadly weaker sterling and jumped to a two-week high versus the Swiss franc. Greece approved detailed austerity and privatization bills in a crucial vote to secure emergency international aid. But longerterm dangers still lurk with credit insurance markets pricing in an 80 percent chance of Greece defaulting within five years. The ICE dollar index .DXY, which tracks its performance against a basket of currencies, was down 0.45 percent in the month of June 2011.The euro had touched a four-week high against the dollar at the start of the month on growing optimism over a fresh aid deal for Greece, and the greenback remained under pressure as U.S. data's continued to reflect a slowing economic recovery. Expectation was that a slowing economic recovery could sway Fed policy and would prompt it to keep rates low for a longer period of time. That would contrast with the European Central Bank, which raised rates in early April and several more rate increases are expected this year to combat inflation. These rate differentials are a primary reason for the euro's 7.7 percent gain against the dollar this year. The euro has risen more than 3 percent from a twomonth low against the dollar struck on May 23, on expectations that Greece will put in place austerity measures and go ahead with plans to privatize assets to ensure aid flowing from the IMF. Also the recent spate of disappointing U.S. data, ranging from the factory sector to the labor market, has darkened the U.S. economy's outlook and made the dollar less appealing than higheryielding currencies. The data coincides with worries about the end of the Fed's second round of quantitative easing known as QE2, the $600 billion asset purchase program was launched to stimulate the economy. Investors fear its removal could hinder recovery. But in the middle of the month the euro tumbled more than 1 percent against the dollar and yen as fears over Greece's debt returned to the forefront and investors curbed expectations about the European Central Bank's interest-rate hikes. The euro fell after the European Central Bank kept its 2012 inflation forecast unchanged, suggesting the pace of euro zone interest rate hikes may be slower than previously thought. Greece worries also weighed on the euro after Moody's said it would be tough to imagine private creditors participating voluntarily in a debt restructuring. The ECB stuck to its 2012 inflation outlook, surprising investors who had been expecting them to flag increasing price pressures. Markets have been scaling back rate-rise expectations since last week, when a third increase was anticipated before the year is out. We think the euro is overvalued given the weak fundamentals in the euro zone and believe levels above $1.45 will be aggressively sold into. The Indian rupee weakened in the June-quarter, ending a three straight quarterly rise, as local shares dragged, but the euro's surge during the period helped limit the fall. Global oil prices and progress of the south-west monsoon would be a key to the rupee's direction in the Q3.

Our Outlook
We continue to believe that the RBI will raise policy rates by another 25 bps as it does not expect inflation to taper off in the next 3-4 months. The RBI's move so far has been largely in line with the market expectations. Yields have started to rally as market participants look at nearing the top of an interest rate cycle. While it will be largely driven by future inflation numbers, it is quite possible that the RBI will pause after the next rate hike to see the impact of its previous action on the economy.

Investment Recommendations
? Reliance Mid term plan. ? Sunlife Dynamic bond fund. Birla

12

Real Estate Opportunities


Supertech North Eye Sec- 74, Noida
About Supertech
Supertech Group, founded in 1988, has set new trends and benchmarks of architectural excellence in the contemporary global scenario. An ISO 9001:2000 certified company; Supertech has successfully completed 20 years in real estate business and today it has revolutionized the real estate arena. Under the dynamic and pragmatic leadership of Mr. R.K.Arora, Chairman & CMD and experienced Board Members, Supertech Group is scaling new heights and touched the horizon of excellence. Their vision and entrepreneurial acumen and have taken the group to the greater heights.

About Supertech North Eye


Supertech North Eye is new launched project of Supertech Group. Supertech North Eye is the new part of Supertech Cape Town. Supertech North Eye residential apartment's project is located at Sector 74 Noida. Supertech North Eye offers affordable luxurious Apartments & Flats. Supertech North Eye apar tments available at affordable price. Supertech North Eye flats offers to all lots of amenities & facilities in the project such as Shopping Mall, School, Hospital, Hotel, Plotted Development, Hi-rise condos, second inning home inside, Swimming Pool and much more. Admittedly not for everyone, Supertech North Eye at Supertech Cape Town is the ultimate, limited edition living experience. Each apartment is unique and captures the spirit. Supertech North Eye available at very affordable price, these expandable flats gives you the flexibility and space to choose how and when to shape it to match your lifestyle. Supertech North Eye Location: Supertech North Eye residential flats project is located at Sector 74 Noida. Supertech North Eye Type: 2 BHK, 3 BHK & 4 BHK fully furnished apartments. Supertech North Eye Starting Price (Rate): 25.16 Lacs onwards.

Supertech North Eye Features:


What's ? Special - Man-made lakes Beaches, Recreation centers, Vaastu friendly fengshui layout & design ? Pleasurable greens and a lot more all around, Convenience Stores. ? Prime ? land at Sector 74, a part of grand civilization, Supertech Cape Town. Fully ? furnished apartments, Available in 2 BHK, 3 BHK & 4 BHK fully furnished luxurious apartments. World ? class amenities like manmade beach and lake, lush-green landscaping, fully loaded recreational centre with Gym, Squash Courts. Shopping Mall, School, Hospital, Hotel, Plotted Development, Hi-rise condos, second inning home inside, Swimming Pool and much more. ?

13

Real Estate Opportunities


RNA METROPOLIS Sewri,Mumbai
About RNA Corp
RNA Corp, earlier known as RNA Builders (A.A.), is one of India's leading property development companies with over two decades of experience in offering solutions to individuals and corporate customers. With key focus on client requirements, the group has a bouquet of projects across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Over the last decade, the contribution to Residential and Mixed-Use Real Estate in Mumbai is quantified by 10 million sq. ft of completed developments, while a substantial development is already in the pipeline.

About RNA METROPOLIS


RNA Metropolis is one of the popular Residential Developments in Sewri of Mumbai. . More than 50 storeys of centrally located premium residences. Standing tall in South Mumbai's fast developing corner. The landscape is beautiful with spacious Houses.

Stilt + ? 14 Levels of Podium Parking + 1 Levels Club House+ 1 Level of e deck Wing ? A & C- 41 Residential Floors Wing ? B - 47 Residential Floors Easy ? access to both Central and Western suburbs 2-3 kms from the business districts of Worli,Prabhadevi and Lower ? Parel Nariman Point, Fort and BKC business districts within easy reach ? ITC ?Grand Central Sheraton - 1.5km < Parel Station - 2km Sewri ? Railway Station - 0.3km < Dadar Railway Station - 3km Schools ? and hospitals in close proximity Mahalaxmi Race course 5km ?

Exterior Amenities
Gymnasium ? Table ? tennis Billiards ? Badminton court ? Squash ? court Jacuzzi ? Steam ? Sauna ? Massage room ? Library ? cum study area Yoga ? &meditation room Cyber ? caf Banquet & party lounge ? Cafeteria ? Swimming pool ? Jogging ? track Multipurpose hall ?

14

Commodity round up
Commodity market sentiment was significantly and negatively affected by macroeconomic data and concerns over Greece's access to funding at start of the June month. US' non-farm payrolls rose +54K in May, greatly missing market expectations of a +190K addition, after a downwardly revised +232K reading in April. Unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 9.1% in May from 9.0% in the prior month. The market had expected a dip to 8.9%. PMI data released sent a general perception that global manufacturing activities are slowing down. The US ISM manufacturing index surprisingly fell to 53.5 (consensus: 57.5) in May from 60.4 in April. In China, PMI slowed to 52, the lowest reading in 9 months, in May from 52.9 in the prior month. The reading is, nonetheless, higher than market expectations of a drop to 51.6. In the Euro zone, the final estimate of PMI was revised lower to 51.6 from preliminary reading of 54.8. In April, the reading was 58. UK's PMI slowed to 52.1 in May from 54.6 in April. Switzerland's PMI was a pleasant surprise, unexpectedly rising to 59.2 in May from 58.4 in the prior month. The US ISM manufacturing index surprisingly fell to 53.5 (consensus: 57.5) in May from 60.4 in April. The global economic uncertainty pulled up precious metal prices and economically sensitive commodities like base metals and crude were dumped by investors. Gold initially continued moving higher despite weakness in the euro as investors sought safe-haven investments amid worrisome growth outlook and lingering sovereign debt concerns in the European periphery. The initial driving force behind gold's prices was the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech on US growth and the ECB meeting. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said at a conference in Atlanta on June 7 that US economic recovery remained 'uneven' and 'frustratingly slow'. The ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and said 'strong vigilance' is warranted on price stability. The reference signals a rate hike is imminent in July. This triggered safe haven money into the yellow metal and the benchmark COMEX contract tried to break the previous high of $1577/Oz.The major news which was supporting gold was lingering sovereign debt concerns in the European periphery, in particular the fate of Greece. Additionally, fiscal situation in US was again under the spotlight after Moody's warned that it would put the country's debt under review. But after a stiff tussle between the bears and the bulls the yellow metal finally slid as approval of the Greek austerity bill averted an immediate default and hence reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The yellow metal plummeted to 6-week low of $1478.3/Oz. Silver followed gold and plunged to as low as $33.47/Oz. US Quantitative easing has ended without follow-through of more money pumping measures which is negative for gold as cheap money for gold investment evaporates. Support to the precious metals prices might come from physical demand after the seasonally weak 3Q and investment demand in the longer-term. According to the World Gold Council, there's a 'tidal wave of gold demand coming' mainly from emerging markets. Similar to India, gold has a special appeal to Chinese people as it represents luck and fortune. Apart from traditional beliefs, heightening inflation pressure in China has also increased gold's demand as a hedge against inflation. Headline inflation jumped to +5.5% y/y in May after moderating to +5.3% a month ago. Core inflation was also worrisome as it soared +2.9% y/y, accelerating from +2.7% in April. Oil traded choppily, being dominated by the key theme of OPEC's meeting on June 8. Uncertainties in this meeting increased after recent defection of the Libyan oil minister and firing of the Iranian minister. There have been speculations that the cartel will eventually raise production quota in the meeting, after leaving it unchanged for 7 meetings, as surging oil prices are damping global economic growth. But the member countries failed to reach a deal to boost output, quotas were announced to remain unchanged and this bolstered oil prices. The prices again slumped as Saudi Arabia said it would raise production to meet rising demand. The IEA's monthly report showed demand upgrades from both 2010 and 2011. However, without adequate supply in the pipeline, surging oil prices would risk a double-dip recession in the economy. The IEA reiterated that 'there is a clear need for OPEC to boost supply'. There are 'damaging implications' to global economy if Saudi Arabia and some other producers fail to do so. Concerning disruption in Libya, the IEA believed production can only recover gradually after the ongoing civil war but will not be able to return to pre-war level of around 1.6M bpd until 2014. Technically MCX Gold contract for August delivery broke the support of `21900 and is sustainably trading below the same. The bears required a close below `21900 to drag the prices down till `21000.Support is at `21600 from where the counter can give a slight bounce back but the trend remains weak and the next near term target is at `21600-21000 levels. Resistance now is at `22000 and then at `22350 which would be a trend reversal resistance. MCX Silver gave a false breakout above the 9 day MA of `54500 and fell steeply in past sessions. Break of `53500 took it straight down near to `50000 which was our earlier target. On monthly chart a very good support is pegged at `50380 break of which might take the counter down till `48000.Strong weekly resistance is at `52000.NYMEX WTI Crude oil has broken the 200 day EMA almost after 8 months which is a bearish indicator. Bounce back till $ 96 a barrel is possible after the steep sell off in the previous few sessions. But the overall trend remains weak and the strategy should be selling on rise. Support is pegged at $ 90 a barrel which if breaks on daily closing basis the downside target would be $85 a barrel. In MCX Strong support is at `4100, which if holds the counter might bounce back till `4300-4350.If prices close below `4100 on weekly basis then the next downside target would be `3750.

15

Alternate Investment Idea


MILESTONE DOMESTIC SCHEME III
Milestone Capital Advisors Ltd. is a professionally Managed company providing Investment management services on various funds and scheme to India and global investors across various asset classes. Currently Milestone has an AUM of US$ 800 mn. It advises 8 eight schemes, including 1 offshore scheme, targeting an investor base of non-institutional investors including high net-worth individuals, and institutional investors including insurance companies, banks, pension funds & corporate houses. Investment teams at Milestone apply their experience in a hand on way to ensure that investors' interests and objectives are vigorously pursued in all situations. They are focused on identifying new complementary investment strategies and opportunities across various sectors. India ? Focused SEBI registered Real Este Fund with an Investment Horizon of 3.5 years. FUND OVERVIEW Attractive returns with lower risk through investment in real estate projects which ? have made significant progress and have temporary funding gaps. Fund ? Size `500 crores plus Green Shoe option of `250 crores STRUCTURED/MEZZA NINE FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE Lack ?of debt financing, equity funding, fall in real estate prices coupled with refinancing needs have created funding issues and thereby created opportunities for Structured/Mezzanine Finance which have characteristics of both equity and debt Investment in high quality projects which are either under construction or projects ? which are to be launched within 6 months. Focus ? on Top 8 cities along with development partners, who have the market INVESTMENT STRATEGY expertise, construction management capacity and good track record of project execution. Investments are based on strong diligence and carry a preferred fixed return with an ? upside cariable return. Milestone Capital Advisors Limited. ? Significant experience in Real Estate and Private Equity. ? Advises ? 5 India focused real estate and Private Equity . Advises ? 5 India focused real estate funds aggregating ` 2000 crores. Team ? has a collective experience of advising investments of over `4000 crores in various real estate projects. Fund Life Minimum Commitment 3 years
? for Banks and Institutions `1 crore ? `25 lakhs for Corporates & Trusts ? `15 Lakhs for individual investors (`10 lakhs if Payment is made

INVESTMENT ADVISORS

in Single investment) Drawdown Hurdle Rate Target Return Carried Interest Focused Sector Focused Sector
? 1: Upfront Payment (Minimum `10 lakhs) Option ? 2: 40% upfront and balance in two installments of 30% Option

Management Fee

each (Minimum `15 lakhs) 12% (Pre Tax, Post Expenses) p.a. 22% (Pre Tax, Post Expenses) p.a. 15% Residential projects across Top 8 cities Structured / Mezzanine finance, Unique opportunity in medium term Structured real estate investments aimed at generating superior returns ? Management Fees : 1.5 % of Commitment Amount Annual ? One time setup Fees : 2% of commitment amount

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