Lab03-Solution STAT02-Spring2011

(2) Climate change is a hot topic these days. One of the factors that may explain increases in global temperatures is the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Annual atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations measured as parts per million by volume (ppmv) are derived from air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. Additionally the annual average global temperatures (degrees Celsius) are recorded. The data plotted below are for years from 1958 through 2003.

(3) problem 2 looked at the relationship between global temperatures and the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Annual atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations measured as parts per million by volume (ppmv) are derived from air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. Additionally the annual average global temperatures (degrees Celsius) are recorded. Below are a plot and summaries of the data.

4. In most jurisdictions, driving an automobile with a blood alcohol level(BAC) in excess of .08 is a felony. Because of a number of factors, it is difficult to provide guidelines on when it is safe for someone who has consumed alcohol to drive a car. In an experiment to examine the relationship between blood alcohol level and the weight of a drinker, 50 men of varying weights were each given three beers to drink and 1 hour later their blood alcohol level was measured. The data are stored in bloodalcohol.JMP on the blackboard. we will assume that the simple linear regression model holds .

The graph suggests that the regression function looks approximately like a straight line and that a simple linear regression model might be appropriate. The equation for the least squares regression line is y = 0.0331795 + 0.000225 x . The residual plot shows that the simple linear regression model appears to be reasonable. There does not seem to be any clear pattern in the residuals and the variance of the residuals appears to be approximately stable.

(a). A 95% confidence interval for the slope of the regression line is:

b1 t n 2 SE (b1 ) = 0.000225 2.011(0.00007) = (0.000083,0.0003671) .

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Note that t is the 5%(2tail) value from the t -table with n - 2= 48 degrees of freedom. The 95% confidence interval can also be obtained directly from the JMP output by right clicking in parameter estimates and clicking Columns and then Upper 95% and Lower 95%.

(b). A 90% confidence interval for the slope of the regression line is:

b1 t n 2 SE (b1 ) = 0.000225 1.677(0.00007) = (0.00001076,0.00034239) .

Note that t is the 10 %( 2tail) value from the t -table with n - 2= 48 degrees of freedom.

(c). Assume that the simple linear regression model holds and E ( y | x) = 0 + 1 x . If drinking more beers is associated with an increase in average blood alcohol content in the population of all students, then 1 > 0 . If we want to test whether drinking more beers is associated with an increase in average blood alcohol content, then we should do a one sided test of H 0 : 1 = 0 vs. H a : 1 > 0 . It is also acceptable to do a two-sided test H 0 : 1 = 0 vs. From the JMP output, we see that the p-value for the

two sided test is =0.0025. The estimated slope 1 is 0.002250>0 and the p-value is <.0.05 so we
conclude that there is strong evidence that drinking more beers is associated with an increase in average blood alcohol content.

(d) H 0 : 1 = 0 vs. H a : 1 0 Our test statistics is =

1 / SE ( 1 ) = 3.19

The critical value from the table for alpha=0.05 (2tail) with df=48, t= 2.011, So our test statistics 3.19 is in the rejection region. We reject Ho and conclude that there is evidence that drinking more beers is associated with average blood alcohol content.

(e) Ho: There is no linear dependency Ha: There is linear dependency Also same as saying the following hypothesis,

H 0 : 1 = 0 vs. H a : 1 0

Test statistics from JMP ANOVA table F= 10.1462. ( Note here which is (3.19)^2= square of the t-value. This is true for simple linear regression.)

df denominator =48 (df2) df numerator=1 (df1)

p-value=0.0025 ( Notice this is the same as the p-value for t-test-this is true for simple linear regression)

So we reject Ho and conclude that there is linear dependency or model is useful.

(f) For the above test the test statistics F-ratio= 10.17. The critical value from the F-table, we need df1=1, df2=48, alpha=0.05. We dont have the 48, we will use the closer one which is 50. The value is 4.03.And hence the test statistics is in the rejection region. We will reject Ho and conclude that the model is useful.