11 July

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A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION VOL. XX No. 35 Guru Speak Monday, July 11 17, 2011 Pages 19 Rs.12
Q1FY12 results may provide the trigger
By G. S. Roongta The recent rally that we witnessed mostly in FMCG stocks and some Sensex stocks like HUL, ITC, Nestle, Colgate, Marico followed by ABB, L&T, BHEL, Century Textiles, GE Shipping, Tata Steel, Tata Motors helped them regain their earlier losses partially but they are yet below their recent highs. The fluctuations witnessed last week failed to continue the smart rally on the first three days upto Wednesday, 6 July 2011 as the benchmarks encountered strong resistance at BSE Sensex 18800 and the CNX Nifty above 5650. The stock prices were flat or range bound indicating that the market is not in a hurry to move up fast till the recent gains are not fully consolidated at the upper level in a short while unlike the nine long months it took between September 2010 and June 2011 earlier. The market started witnessing selling pressure at or above Sensex 18800 or above Nifty 5650. Thus it may be assumed that profit booking emerged at higher levels. However, FIIs have been net buyers all these days and their orders have been handsome both in terms of volume and value, which is evident b their net purchases of Rs.2677.3 crore on Friday, 1 July 2011; Rs.1185.72 crore on Monday, 4 July 2011; Rs.860 crore on Tuesday, 5 July 2011 and around Rs.220 crore on Wednesday, 6 July 2011. This means that there is a strong demand for Indian stocks among FIIs, which could boost the G. S. Roongta market sentiment further. The mood of the FIIs has suddenly turned positive and they consider India being the safest destination at the current levels as it offers attractive P/E multiples of 20-30 times of future earnings in several blue chip stocks. The drop in crude oil prices was another factor that boosted the sentiment as India is among the largest oil importers and will stand to gain by the fall in prices. This will reduce government spending on oil imports and also benefit corporates to cushion their ever rising input costs. Two other global factors that had a positive impact on the markets were the hopes of the Libyan crisis getting over with the dictator Muammar Gaddafi agreeing to move out and Greece obtaining relief to restructure its debt defaults, which came as a welcome relief to countries, which had extended loans and advances against several business commitments. The BSE Sensex, which had closed the previous week at 18762 and the CNX Nifty at 5627.20 are still hovering around the same levels with minor fluctuations in between. The Sensex gained 51.68 points to end at 18814.48 on Monday, 4 July 2011 while the Nifty gained 23.20 points to close at 5650.50. But these levels attracted profit booking and both the benchmarks shed their gains over the next two days on 5 & 6 July 2011 with a loss of 69.92 points and 16.42 points respectively on the Sensex to close at 18726 on 6 July 2011. Correspondingly, the Nifty ended with a loss of 18.40 points and 6.65 points respectively to close at 5625.45 on 6 July 2011 showing minor changes. Ashok Leyland, which is quoting cum 1:1 bonus improved to Rs.52.55 on Friday, 8 July 2011 on the back of value buying. This means that the stock is available at an ex-bonus rate of less than Rs.27, which is a throwaway price for this auto major, which is growing at a fast pace and hopes to produce 1 lakh vehicles in FY12 and embark on diversifications
A Time Communications Publication
including real estate. There is no indication why this stock is discounted so poorly since its 52-week high was Rs.80 and should have quoted much higher given the diversification and future prospects. Tata Steel, Tata Global Beverages, L&T and BHEL are all in a rising trend as they had been beaten heavily earlier and are moving below their 52-week high. It may be recalled that the technical analysts had given weak guidelines for L&T just 3 months back but today the stock displays good strength. A mid cap and small cap stock rally is ready to spark off as both these segments had lost much ground in the recent downtrend and prices of several stocks are just half or lower than their 52-week high. There is, therefore, enough scope for these stocks to rally and gain grounds if the Sensex crosses 19K and the Nifty crosses 5800. Elecon Engineering, one of my favourite stocks, gained 15% to touch Rs.74 on Thursday, 7 July 2011 from a low of Rs.64 in just two weeks. This is one example of the inherent strength of good stocks that will Investment Advisory Service assert themselves in a rally. by G.S. Roongta The week ahead will be very interesting as Money Times is pleased to introduce Investment Advisory Service corporates will start publishing their (IAS) by our renowned columnist Mr. G. S. Roongta, who has over 25 Q1FY12 results, which are expected to be years of experience and is well-know for his accurate forecasts since good going by the advance tax numbers, 1986. which are higher by an average of 25% for Interested investors can visit Money Times office between 4 p.m. to 6 most A group and blue chip companies. p.m. on Tuesday or Thursday every week after prior appointment Investors are eyeing banking and IT stocks. with our office. Outstation readers can consult him by e-mail or Infosys and TCS are expected to give phone. positive guidelines for the future and if that A minimum one time charge of Rs.1000 has to be paid in advance happens, the market will continue its favouring Time Communications (India) Ltd. against which a upward journey. maximum of 5 scrips will be recommended for investment and After remaining range bound and flat reviewed up to a period of three months. during the first three trading sessions of the Other services like portfolios analysis/restructuring will be charged week, the market flared up on Thursday, 7 extra depending on the size of the portfolio & service. July 2011 on the back of renewed buying by Contact Money Times on 022-22654805 or FIIs and retail investors. The Sensex jumped Telefax: 022-22616970 or email us at moneytimes@vsnl.com. 351.33 points to cross the 19K mark and closed at 19078.30 while the Nifty crossed 5700 to settle at 5728.95 paving the way for a smart rise. But is it not an irony that the benchmarks crossed these crucial levels despite two union ministers, Murli Deora and Dayanidhi Maran, have been forced to resign because of their questionable conduct in the petroleum and telecom ministries respectively? The market just did not care about these resignations or corruption charges whereas in the past such episodes would take a great toll of the market. Thus it is quite apparent that piecemeal issues do not have much bearing in a good market sentiment whereas such negative news lend a severe blow in a weak market sentiment. The Sensex has regained 1500 points over the last two weeks or 500 points on the Nifty and the bear lobby, which was in command, has handed over the reins to the bulls. Technical experts, who were prophecising a doomsday scenario with a Sensex below 16500 and Nifty below 5K for quite long, found themselves in a very awkward position. Their gloomy faces and weak voice on popular TV channels was worth watching as their forecasts fell flat with the reversal in the market sentiment. On Friday, 8 July 2011, the markets opened weak but regained strength mid-session only to lose once again and close with a loss of 220.26 points on the Sensex at 18858.04 and a loss of 68.30 points on the Nifty at 5660.65. But this was not surprising and was expected given the excellent growth over the past two weeks. Money Times readers must be happy to note that this column has always remained firm and did not change its stand even in the worse market scenario. This is because our view is based on the fundamentals of the economy or the performance of the corporate and we are not disturbed by the fluctuations in share prices brought about by trading or for that matter even speculative activity on a particular counter. Our readers should be happy that they did not have to book losses in the short-term reaction in the market and are in a position to reap a good harvest if the rally continues to hit higher. With a chastened Centre and a reshuffle in the Union Cabinet, let us hope that the government policies and actions will be far more meaningful and productive. This is bound to impact the market favourably. If the government manages to achieve the targeted GDP growth of 9% in FY12, we are headed for great times ahead. The Q1FY12 results beginning this week may prove to be the trigger the market needs and the bears will have no choice but to cover their short position as the market is set to breakout as soon as the Nifty crosses 5800.
Good small cap and mid cap stocks identified by us earlier or recommended under our Investment Advisory Service (IAS) can easily spurt by 20-25% in a strong environment.
BAZAR.COM
By Fakhri H. Sabuwala Falling turnover, rising costs, increasing competition and marketmen's indifference is creating immense problems for the survival of market intermediaries. Little wonder, the likes of Alchemy, Tower Capital, Motilal Oswal, Angel and many more have taken drastic steps to rationalise operations by strutting unremunerative departments and pruning the work force and doing away with high salaried executives. The broking fraternity feels that the time for consolidation has arrived. Given the current brokerage and cost structure time is ripe for mergers and acquisitions. Life becomes more insecure for the broking fraternity when Kareena Kapoor, acting as a brand ambassador for a broking outfit, announces the arrival of one paisa commission for a trade. What are the economics of such a deal? How will the firm manage the show when the cost of printing a contract alone is much higher than the one paisa charged, forget the cost of paper and the overheads? There is obviously something more than meets the eye. The crisis in the broking business gives rise to two possibilities: (a) Closure of unremunerative institutional dealing counters and (b) mergers and buyouts of the retail and high net worth clients. Brokers with deep pockets are willing to buy and shell out as much as Rs.20000 per client in case the existing small broker is willing to sell them and sign a no competition agreement for a certain period. It is believed that the selling brokers are willing to pass on their existing clients at Rs.30,000 per client. The one paisa commission broking house is possibly on the lookout for clients and unwilling to reimburse the brokers whom they come from. It prefers to compensate them directly with this unbeatable offer, which makes great business sense. The way the business is unfolding, its a matter of time that the small and marginal intermediaries will give way to the bigger fish. The brokerage, which is so low, may be similar to the services provided by some banks where every little thing is value added at a price. Market Outlook: As we had guessed, the market covered the last 1400 Sensex points without retail investors participating in the rally. Our forecast of a rally was based on a common sense approach that everyone had turned negative about the market some two weeks back. This was a sure sign that we had hit the bottom and that the market was sure to rise hereon. The market always moves against the popular consensus and prove the majority wrong. It did. Now every technical analyst is screaming of teji from the rooftop. An overwhelming consensus on teji will be evident some 500 to 750 Sensex points up from here. Smart players who have played the contrarian card need to hold on to their longs and slowly begin to unwind their positions and not wait for the euphoria to develop. The layman and general public has not even participated so far and is just waiting on the sidelines for the buy signals to emerge. They never will when the market is low and will usually surface nearing the peak and fall into a trap as usual. Thats how it always is isnt it? Investment strategy: The Q1FY12 results season is on and hopes of a good show is building on the basis of the advance tax payments. Going by that yardstick, the market is on a good wicket. But what may emerge will be the fatter bottomlines thanks to other incomes but lower operating profits. Treat this too as a passing phase and pick up the midcaps and small caps as they are available at a very low P/E. Its time to indentify the value scrips and pick them up. Karuturi Global: This rose grower plans to produce nearly 70 crore roses annually in two years from now i.e. 19 lakh flowers a day. The current production is 15.6 lakh flowers a day. Globally, roses account for 40% of the floriculture industry, which is growing at 10% to 15% said Manoj Agarwal, CEO of the company's Indian operations. Floriculture contributed around 95% to its topline of Rs.634 crore last fiscal. It produces roses not only in India but also in Kenya and Ethiopia. About 90% of its produce is exported to Europe. Karuturi processes vegetables like gherkin, tomato, and jalapeno and is planning to double its processing capacity by FY13. In the next couple of years, the company plans a capex of Rs.900 crore in agriculture. It enjoys the confidence of the Kenyan government and has been appointed as an advisor on improving agro yields. Little wonder, it already possesses 1.1 lakh hectares on which it is growing maize, corn, cotton and sugarcane. It also produces palm oil.
Brokerages hit hard!
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
Weak below 18600; strength above 19200

By Hitendra Vasudeo
A Time Communications Publication 3
Last week, the Sensex opened at 18896.24 attained a low at 18649.86 and then attained a high for the week at 19131.70 before it finally closed the week at 19548.06 and thereby showed a net rise of 95 points on a week-to-week basis. A spinning top candlestick pattern has been formed after a sharp rise for 2 weeks, which suggests a momentary halt to the rise. The spinning top was formed after testing the trend line resistance on the weekly chart, which suggests that till 19132 is not crossed on a sustained basis at the end of the week with a strong weekly close and positive candle, further upside cannot be seen. If that happens, then we may see a rise towards 19811 at least. If the Sensex sustains below 18682 or 18600, then we may see a correction of the last corresponding rise from 17314 to 19131 before making further attempts to move higher. The retracement level of the rise from 17314 to 19131 will be at 18440, 18226 and 18011. Either of these retracements will be tested before making attempts to move higher. On the daily chart, on Friday, 8 July 2011, we saw the 200-day average being tested. Subsequently, we saw a large bear candle formed respecting the 200-day average. Along with the trend line resistance, we had the 200-day average offering resistance. Therefore, a further upside move from hereon can be witnessed above 19132. Broad Market: The BSE Mid Cap index has formed a stalled pattern on candlestick on the weekly chart. Further weakness will be seen on a fall and close below 6900. Further, upside momentum can be seen above 7100. BSE Small Cap index also formed a stalled pattern on candlestick, which indicates a possible halt to the rise unless a sustained rise and close above 8500 is seen to continue the higher low and higher high formation. Weakness may be seen on BSE Small Cap index below 8200. Wave Tree:
Wave Tree Wave I Wave II Wave III Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave A Wave B Wave C Wave C Wave C Wave C Wave C (a) (b) (b) (b) a b c Month Dec Feb March Jan Jan March 11-Nov 11-Nov Feb April 20-Jun Year 1979 1986 1998 2008 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 Sensex 113 656 390 21206 21206 8047 21108 21108 17295 19811 17314 Month Feb March Jan 8-July11 March 11-Nov 8-July11 Feb11 April11 20-June11 8-July11 Year 1986 1998 2008 2010 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2010 Sensex 656 390 21206 19131 8047 21108 19131 17295 19811 17314 19131 In Progress Remark In progress In Progress -
Conclusion An indecisive candle movement after testing the trend line and 200 day average suggests that another week of follow-up rise is required to see a further upmove. Otherwise, we may find the rise terminated. The same will get confirmed on a sustained fall and close below 18682. In short, a strong rise and weekly close above 19132 is required and not just a minor rise and a reverse move is not desired. Strategy for the week Traders, if long, need to raise the stop loss higher to 18600 to hold long. Fresh longs can be undertaken on a rise and close above 19132 with the low of the day as the stop loss or 18600, whichever is lower. If the opening is above 18600 and the Sensex falls below 18600, then sell with the high of the day as the stop loss or 19132, whichever is higher. An indecisive candle movement accounts for a strategy, which is buy above or below the indecisive candles high or low of last week.
WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with what ever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the up Trend.
Scrips Last Close Stop Loss Level 2 Buy Price INDRAPRASTHA G SUN PHARMA HDFC BANK PETRONET LNG E.I.D. PARRY (I) 390.90 502.65 2558.00 142.20 261.70 383.2 493.4 2511.0 136.0 250.0 384.7 493.5 2518.3 137.7 252.9 Center Point Buy Price 389.4 502.5 2550.7 140.6 258.8 Level 3 Book Profit 395.5 511.7 2590.3 145.1 267.6 Level 4 Book Profit 406.3 529.8 2662.3 152.6 282.4 73.3 69.3 67.0 62.6 62.1 379.3 492.0 2446.8 140.4 244.8 01-04-11 27-05-11 20-05-11 08-07-11 10-06-11 Weekly Relative Reversal Strength Value Up Trend Date
WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with what ever high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Scrips Last Close Level 1 Cover Short INDIABULL POWER LANCO INFRATECH RELIANCE INDUSTRI EDUCOMP SOLUTIO SUN TV NETWORK 17.80 24.50 854.00 393.35 318.85 16.2 22.5 799.0 294.8 251.8 Level 2 Cover Short 17.4 23.9 837.0 368.4 298.9 Center Point Sell Price 18.1 24.8 858.0 416.9 325.9 Level 3 Sell Price 18.6 25.3 875.0 441.9 345.9 18.9 25.6 879.0 465.5 353.0 30.27 31.30 32.23 36.00 36.07 18.18 25.49 863.50 400.76 345.11 10-06-11 29-04-11 17-06-11 10-06-11 08-07-11 Stop Loss Relative Strength Weekly Reversal Value Down Trend Date
PUNTER'S PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target which ever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Scrips ANIL ORIENTAL CARBON & CH BSE Code 532910 506579 Last Close 277.55 141.20 Buy Price 269.70 136.30 Buy On Rise 283.50 145.00 Stop Loss 265.00 132.30 Target 1 Target 2 294.9 152.9 313.4 165.6 Risk Reward 1.39 1.31
EXIT LIST
Scrip SKF INDIA Last Close 653.00 Sell Price 667.43 Sell Price 672.50 Sell Price 677.57 Stop Loss 694.00 Target 1 624.4 Target 2 581.4
TOWER TALK
* A group of HNIs are quietly accumulating the shares of Balaji Telefilms. Its new serial Bade Acche Lagate Hein has
been able to generate the required TRP. * After tumbling from Rs.1500 to Rs.250, the share price of SKS Microfinance is now on a roller coaster ride. Scrip may continue its upward march in the coming week as well. * Something is cooking in Sasken Communications. Considering the trading pattern, traders can still buy the scrip for short-term gains. * Majority of the oil drilling & exploration counters are buzzing with a rise in share prices backed by high volumes. Keep a watch on Selan Exploration, Alphageo, Shiv Vani Oil, HOEC etc. * Cerebra is an upcoming company addressing the issue of e-waste. Grab it before the theme ripens and big bulls get into it.
* The market is springing upward surprises, which are more due to bear covering than anything else. So be on guard and dont get carried away. * Reliance Industries was the reason for Murli Deora's head to roll from the petroleum ministry. Is it RIL again that led to his departure from the Ministry or Corporate Affairs? * Pawar-play is on in the sugar industry and power play at the sugar counters. * Buy Coal India and MOIL as both are seriously being looked at by FIIs and enjoy the Mark Mobius touch. * Sadbhav Engineering, a road infra company that has diversified into mining, has a superb future. * Rain, rain go away.... come again another day, big bears want to play. Little wonder, the projection of the monsoon's progress is on the weaker side but its raining cats and dogs!
BEST BETS
Balaji Amines Ltd. (Code: 530999)
(Rs.41.20)
Incorporated in 1988, Balaji Amines Ltd. (BAL) is a reputed and a leading producer of methylamines, ethylamines and their derivatives. In fact, it is Indias largest manufacturer of methylamines and their derivatives with a market share of over 60%. Besides, it boasts of being the worlds largest producer of Di-Methyl Amine Hydrochloride commanding nearly 90% of the global market share. Importantly, the company is among the handful of manufacturers across the world as amine manufacturing technology is a closely guarded process and it is using indigenously developed technology i.e. without any foreign technical collaboration. Amines are organic compounds that find many applications. They are used as corrosion inhibitors in boilers and in lubricating oils, as antioxidants for rubber and roofing asphalt, as stabilizers for cellulose nitrate explosives, as protectants against damage from gamma radiation, as developers in photography, as flotation agents in mining, as waterproofing agents for textiles, as fabric softeners, in paper coating, and for solubilizing herbicides. Moreover many drugs and medicines are based on amino compounds and are used as anti-histamines for allergies, decongestants, tranquilizers etc. Apart from amines, BAL has developed its forte in speciality chemicals as well. Backed by strong in-house R&D capabilities, the company has to its credit the developing & manufacturing of several import substitute chemicals. Today, it proudly claims to be Indias only manufacturer of speciality chemicals like NMethyl Pyrrolidone (NMP), Gamma Butyro Lactone (GBL), Morpholine, Povidone and N-Ethyl-2-Pyrrolidone (NEP). Further, it is the first Indian company to set up dedicated plants for the manufacture of 2 Pyrrolidone (2-P), Poly Vinyl Pyrrolidone (PVPK 30), MMAE, DEAE, DMU and DMAE, which are widely accepted by clients the world over. The plants for these products have been developed indigenously by the companys in-house R & D and the quality has been maintained on par with international standards. Few of these speciality chemical products command 100% market share in India and are exported to major customers across the globe. As of now, BAL derives one-fifth of its total revenue from exports to countries such as UK, USA, Canada, Latin America, Germany, Italy, Middle East, South Africa, France, Brazil, Mexico etc. It caters to diverse industrial segments including pharmaceuticals, agro-chemicals, pesticide formulations, refineries, water treatment chemicals, rubber chemicals electronics, photographic chemicals, dyestuffs and paints. It has an enviable clientele including all pharma majors like Dr Reddys, Ranbaxy, Sun Pharma, Cipla, Cadila, Wockhardt, Dishman, Aurobindo, Lupin, Orchid Chemicals, Piramal Heathcare, IPCA etc. and other organizations such as Reliance Industries, Godrej Industries, GAIL, HPCL, BPCL, IOC, Thermax, Venkys , Foseco, Kores, BASF, Bayer Cropscience, Clariant, Jubiliant etc. Presently, BAL has three full-fledged manufacturing facilities two in Maharashtra and one in Andhra Pradesh for the manufacture of methylamines/ethylamines, their derivatives and the speciality chemicals. The manufacturing processes in all the plants are fully automated through comprehensive Distributed Control Systems (DCS), which facilitate the control of operations from a control room with minimal manual intervention. For maximizing yield and ensuring continuous operation, the company has a 2.5 MW co-generation power plant at one of its units to ensure uninterrupted power supply. Moreover, it recently put up 1.5 MW Windmill project at Satara-Maharashtra, which started generating power from September 2010. During FY11, the company augmented its production capacity by 30% taking its total installed capacity to 70,000 TPA of amines/chemicals. It successfully completed the project to expand the installed capacity of GBL, NMP and 2P by 15,000 TPA at MIDC, Chincholi, Solapur. This project commenced commercial production only from February 2011. Due to its continuous backward & forward integration strategy, the company now consumes over 70% of its methyl amines production capacity internally, which significantly enhances its margins in the value chain. Going forward, to expand its presence globally, especially in regulated markets, the company is striving for international certifications and is in the process of getting its manufacturing plants audited by multiple international auditing agencies and customers. Recently, it received the REACH (Registration Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals) certification for its NMP and Povidone manufacturing facilities and has achieved a WHO GMP certification. With this, BAL has not only become the first company to register under REACH from India for NMP but has also enabled it to export these two products to regulated European markets. Further, the company has successfully
undergone an European Third-Party Audit and has submitted an European Drug Master File (DMF), and also to the US Food and Drugs Administration (FDA), which is currently under evaluation. To maintain its growth momentum, BAL is currently in the midst of setting up a new plant for the manufacture of methylamines and ethylamines with an installed capacity of 30,000 TPA at MIDC, Chincholi. This project, which is scheduled to be commissioned by March 2012 will the take the companys total production capacity to 100,000 TPA. Apart from this capex, the company will continue to invest considerable amounts in R&D activities like identification of new products, development of latest process technologies, optimize utilization of energy, utilities and raw materials consumption, backward and forward integration of products and improve on the value chain etc. In the long-term, BAL aims to be recognized as one of the top five aliphatic amines manufacturing companies in the world. On the other hand, to utilize its surplus land in Solapur and diversify from the chemicals business, the company is developing a 100 room Three Star hotel at an investment of nearly Rs.30 crore. The construction work is going on in full swing and the hotel is expected to be operational by June 2012. Notably, BAL also already entered into a formal agreement with the Sarovar Group of Hotels for operating / managing the property and has named the hotel as Balaji Sarovar Portico. As Solapur city is growing rapidly to become an important nodal point on the industrial map of India, the company expects this new venture to yield attractive returns in future. Fundamentally, BAL is doing well and has been growing consistently over the last few years. Sales have risen at a CAGR of 15% whereas PAT has clocked a CAGR of 20% in the last five years. Even for FY11, it reported 35% rise in sales to Rs.357 crore with 30% increase in PAT to Rs.26.60 crore. Hence it registered an EPS of Rs.8.20 on its equity of Rs.6.50 crore having face value of Rs.2 per share. Financially, the company is bit over leveraged and has higher debt:equity ratio of 1.5x times. But at the same time, it has an impressive ROCE & RONW of 22% & 27% respectively. Moreover, it has a good track record of uninterrupted dividend payment over the last 12 years. However, the higher crude oil price is a cause of concern for the company as it constitutes the basic raw material. Considering all the factors, the company is expected to clock a turnover of Rs.400 crore with net profit of Rs.30 crore i.e. an EPS of Rs.9.25 on its current equity. At a modest forward discounting by 6x times, the BAL share price can shoot upto Rs.55 within a year.
STOCK ANALYSIS
By Devdas Mogili NCL Industries Ltd., formerly known as Nagarjuna Cements Ltd., is a 32-year old Hyderabad based company established in 1979 and is the flagship company of the NCL Group. The Company has four operating Divisions i.e. (1) Cement, (2) Boards, (3) Prefabrication and (4) Hydro energy with Cement being the major revenue contributor. The companys cement is sold under the brand name Nagarjuna. R. Anand is the chairman while K. Ravi is the managing director of the company. The companys cement units are located at Mattapalli in Nalgonda district and Kondapalli, Krishna district in Andhra Pradesh, the Bison Panel factory is at Poanta Sahib in Himachal Pradesh. The Hydel Project is situated on the right main canal of Srisailam dam and produces 7.5 MW of power in 8 months a year. Another Hydel Project is on the right high level canal of Tungabhadra dam and generates 8.25 MW of power in 9 months a year. The two hydel projects contribute annual returns of about Rs.10 crore to the Companys gross savings. The cement manufactured by the company has a good brand loyalty built over the years and commands a premium price in the competitive cement market. A major portion of the cement produced is marketed in the six districts of Andhra Pradesh. NCL has also set up a bone china plant with an installed capacity of 360 TPA at Dommeru, about 400 kms from Hyderabad. It is the only plant in south India using natural gas as fuel. The company is also into prefab housing systems, for which it has acquired and developed the technology using cement board and thin-gauge roll-formed sections. NCL has installed a Diesel Generator set with 2850 KVA, which will enable it to improve the capacity utilization to 110% and reduce the power consumption. Boards: In 1989, NCL diversified its business to manufacture 30,000 TPA of Cement-bonded wood particle boards at the existing location adjacent to its cement plant. For value-addition and enhance sales, it has developed a laminating process for laminated boards. It is the only manufacturer of Cement Bonded Particle Boards (CBPB) in the country. Prefab: The company is a pioneer in the manufacture and supply of prefab shelters widely accepted by both public and private sector undertakings. The company is exploring possibilities of acquiring newer technology in the field of prefab structures. Establishing a joint venture with some European business groups in the field is also on the cards. Hydel Energy: Hydro power projects are generally categorized in two segments i.e. small and large hydro. Up to 25MW comes under small hydro and the two small hydel power projects have a total capacity of 15.75 MW.
NCL Industries: A value pick
Expansion: The company had embarked on an expansion project to add cement capacity of 13,20,000 TPA that was completed and the units successfully commenced commercial operations during the year. While the Cement Grinding Unit at Kondapalli commenced commercial production in June 2009, the Simhapuri Unit commenced commercial operation in the last week of March 2010. After expansion project, NCL has graduated from the Mini Cement plant category to become one of the major cement plants in Andhra Pradesh. Performance: For the audited full year FY11, Sales rose 55.53% to Rs.366.28 crore and the net profit shot up 99.91% to Rs.23.41 crore as against Rs.11.71 crore in FY10. The company recorded an EPS of Rs.6.70 for FY11. Financial Highlights:
Particulars Total Income Total Expenditure Other Income Interest Exceptional items Tax Expense Net Profit Paid up equity Res Ex Rev Reserves Basic/diluted EPS (Rs.) Q4FY11 13687.27 10340.32 33.31 1022.81 1184 178.78 2090.29 3493.73 6.98 (Rs. in lakh) Q4FY10 FY11 6164.11 36628.43 5253.06 29739.09 27.79 83.68 439.58 4055.24 88.35 42.01 4778.35 519.50 108.28 2341.29 3493.73 3493.73 12034.21 0.31 6.70
Latest Results: Sales rose 121.27% to Rs.136.87 crore in Q4FY11 as against Rs.61.64 crore in Q4FY10, while net profit
skyrocketed 1835.19% to Rs.20.90 crore from Rs.1.08 crore in Q4FY10 registering a basic/diluted EPS of Rs.6.98 for the quarter alone. Financials: The company has an equity base of Rs.34.94 crore with a share book value of Rs.44.44. NCL has a debt:equity ratio of 2.67 with RoCE of 10.11% and RoNW of 8.78%. Share Profile: The companys share with a face value of Rs.10 is listed and traded on the BSE under the B group. Its share price hit a 52-week high of Rs.39.80 and a low of Rs.23.30. At its current market price of Rs.35.25, it has a market capitalization of Rs.126.13 crore. Dividends: The company has been paying dividends as shown here: FY11 - 15%, FY10 - 25%, FY09 - 25%, FY08 - 20%, FY07 - 15%, FY06 - 10%, FY05 - 7.50%, FY04 - 5%, FY03 - 10%. In view of the lower profitability owing to unprecedented floods and civil disturbances in the state, the company paid a lower dividend of 10%, compared to the 25% dividend declared in the previous year. Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 44.79% and the balance of 55.21% is with non-corporate promoters and the investing public. Prospects: During the year, the company expanded its cement capacity from 6,27,000 to 13,20,000 TPA. While the increased competition and pressure on cement prices, particularly in Andhra Pradesh is a threat, given its own railway siding at Kondapalli offers it an opportunity to reach out to distant markets in different parts of the country, where better realizations are possible. The outlook for the cement industry in the medium to long-term looks promising though there are concerns of rising input costs as a result of the steep hike in fuel costs, shortage of railway wagons, and higher transportation costs as well as the pressure of supply-demand imbalances on profit margins. The increasing demand for Boards in the construction industry and the new applications for its products offers greater opportunities for the Boards Division. There is a perception that prefabrication offers a non-permanent solution and is suitable only for temporary structures. This limits the scope for penetrating the traditional construction industry. NCL is on the lookout for collaborations and joint ventures with players in the prefab technology which offer more permanent structures. Hydel Energy generation is seasonal in nature and is dependent on the rainfall pattern. Stiff resistance in this field is due to new entrants and adverse changes in the tariff structure will have a material impact on its profitability. Conclusion: NCL is an existing, profit-making, dividend paying company with good brand image in the cement industry and track record of paying dividends. At its current market price of Rs.35, its share price is quoting much below its book value of Rs.44 and is traded around a P/E multiple of less than 6 times its FY11 earnings of Rs.6.70. In view of its excellent performance, good track record and brand image, the share of NCL can be added to ones portfolio with a medium-to-long-term investment perspective.
MARKET REVIEW
Market eyes Q1 earnings

By Ashok D. Singh
The BSE Sensex advanced 95.24 points or 0.51% to settle at 18,858.04 for the week ended Friday, 8 July 2011. The CNX Nifty rose 33.45 points or 0.59% to end at 5,660.65. The BSE Small-Cap index was up 150.73 points or 1.83% to end at 8,375.14 and the BSE Mid-Cap index climbed 94.64 points or 1.37% to close at 6,996.31 during the week. Both the BSE Small-Cap and BSE Mid-Cap indices outperformed the Sensex. Out of the 5 trading sessions, the Sensex gained in 2 and declined in 3 sessions last week. Volatility ruled the roost as the Sensex ended below the psychological 19,000 level a day after regaining that mark on Thursday, 7 July 2011. Investors were cautious ahead of the onset of the Q1FY12 earnings season. The reports have not been encouraging from the weather department. India's key monsoon rains were 25% below normal in the week to Wednesday, 6 July 2011 in sharp contrast from the 10% above average rains in the previous week. The slowing rains reflect a weakness in the monsoon over rice, cotton and oilseeds growing areas of east, west and central India. However the weekly rains were above normal over the cotton and rice growing areas of southern Andhra Pradesh. Investors will closely watch the progress of the monsoon rains in the crucial sowing month of July. The June to September monsoon rains are vital for crop production which covers 60% of the country. Rainfall in the month of July is considered crucial as sowing of a number of crops starts in June and good July rains determine the soil moisture and ensure proper development of the crops planted in June. Sugar stocks may extend recent gains based on the market buzz. The government is considering sugar decontrol. Shares of organized retailers could also extend their recent winning streak on the buzz that the government is dwelling on a proposal to allow Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in multi brand retail. Automobile and Realty stocks may edge lower as commercial banks are raising lending rates. Higher borrowing costs will make purchases of cars and two wheelers and residential housing costlier for buyers through the financing option. FIIs who were waiting on the sidelines so far this year seem to be coming back. FII inflows in July 2011 totalled Rs.5,003.90 crore (till Wednesday, 6 July 2011). FIIs had bought shares worth a net Rs.4,572.20 crore in June 2011. FII inflows in calendar 2011 totalled Rs.7,674.30 crore (till Wednesday, 6 July 2011). Trading for the week began on a optimistic note. After taking a breather on Friday, 1 July 2011 the market regained its winning streak on Monday, 4 July 2011 as data showing sustained buying by foreign funds over the past few days boosted the investor sentiment. The Sensex rose 51.68 points or 0.29% to close at 18,814.48 and the Nifty was up 23.30 points or 0.41% to end at 5,650.50. The key index fell again marginally after recovering its winning streak on Monday, 4 July 2011. On Tuesday, 5 July 2011 the Sensex lost 69.92 points or 0.37% to settle at 18,744.56 and the Nifty was down 18.40 points or 0.33% to end at 5,632.10. A slide in European stocks pushed Indian shares to a one week low on Wednesday, 6 July 2011 as the investors awaited Q1 corporate results. The Sensex fell marginally 17.59 points or 0.09% to close at 18,726.97 and the Nifty was down marginally 6.65 points or 0.12% to end at 5,625.45. The key indices rallied on frenzied buying in index pivotal on Thursday, 7 July 2011 ahead of the commencement of the Q1 corporate earnings season. The Sensex gained 351.33 points or 1.88% to settle at 19,078.30 and the Nifty was up 103.50 points or 1.84% to end at 5,728.95. The key index fell below psychological mark 19,000 on Friday, 8 July 2011. The Sensex declined 220.26 points or 1.15% finally to settle at 18,858.04 and the Nifty was down 68.30 points or 1.19% to end at 5,660.65. The Sensex advanced 95.24 points or 0.51% to settle at 18,858.04 for the week. Corporate earnings results will be in focus next week. Essar Oil will unveil Q1 results on Monday, (for the busy investor) 11 July 2011. Analysts expect Infosys to revise upwards its PROFITRAK is pleased to announce the launch of Fresh One Buy - Daily revenue and earnings growth forecast for (formerly Daily Fresh Buy) for investors/ traders who are keen to focus and FY12 in rupee terms at the time of gain from a single stock every trading day. announcement of Q1FY12 results on With just one daily recommendation selected from stocks in an uptrend, Tuesday, 12 July 2011 with the company seen you can now book profit the same day or carry over the trade if the target is not met. beating its own guidance for Q1FY12 and due Our review over the next four days will provide new exit levels while the to higher pricing. stock is still in an uptrend. TCS will unveil its Q1 results on Thursday, 14 This low risk, high return product for the busy investor is available for July 2011. subscription at Rs.2500 per month. For details contact The crucial corporate earnings season has just moneytimes@vsnl.com or phone on 022-22616970/ 22654805. begun. Investors will closely watch the post Q1FY12 result and the management commentary to gauge the future earnings outlook at a time when firms are witnessing cost pressures amid rising interest
Fresh One Buy - Daily
rates and staff costs. A hike in transportation costs will add to the cost pressures of Indian companies. As per reports, freight rates have gone up by 8% to 9% on all routes across India following the recent hike in diesel prices. HDFC bank has fixed Saturday, 16 July 2011 as the record date for 5-for-1 stock split. Fertilizer stocks will be in focus week next on the buzz that the government is considering changes in the urea policy. Urea is the only fertiliser that remains under full price control after the government partially freed the prices of phosphatic and potash fertilisers at the beginning of the previous fiscal.
STOCK WATCH 2010-11 was a very tough year for Dolphin Offshore Enterprises Ltd. (Code: 522261) (Rs.126.65) as its
scale of operation stood significantly reduced due to unfavourable market conditions. It lost most of the contracts to its overseas peers on the back of sharp undercutting by them. For FY11, its revenue dropped 45% to Rs.290 crore against Rs.528 crore in FY10 whereas its PAT fell by more than 50% to Rs.22 crore posting an EPS of Rs.13 on its equity of Rs.16.80 crore. Even today, the companys unexecuted order book position is barely Rs.100 crore. So it is expected to report a poor performance in the near future, which may lead to its share price to fall below Rs.100 level. However, the company is a global provider of integrated services to the oil & gas industry with a diversified portfolio for undertaking turnkey projects involving underwater, marine and offshore construction. Its key competitive strength is its ability to offer services under water (divers, diving equipments etc), on water (ship and rig repairs, offshore support vessels support, etc) and above water (fabrication, installation, etc). Today, it is among the few companies that provide all the three dimensions of marine construction services, i.e. Diving/ Subsea services, Marine operations, and Topside/Fabrication services to execute offshore projects on a turnkey basis independently. After successful completion of two prestigious projects of ONGC, the company is now a qualified contractor in the vendor list of ONGC. With crude oil crossing US$ 100 per barrel mark, E&P activities are expected to accelerate in the offshore Indian market led by ONGC in the shallow water and Reliance in the deepwater category. Thus, the company expects to bag a couple of good orders from these oil majors and is even planning to expand its work to the Middle East and South East Asia. Going forward, it also intends to set up fabrication yards and its own ship repair facility. For future growth, the company is prepared to grow inorganically as well and is open to acquire a company abroad. Although the near future scenario looks pessimistic for the company, its only a temporary phase in the companys life cycle. Considering its track record, execution capabilities, foreign collaboration and the managements caliber, investors should value this company based on its long-term prospects. At the same time, investors must bear in mind that the company has a contingent liability of Rs.27 crore towards liquidated damages and also has receivables of Rs.48 crore in its books since 2007. Buy only at sharp declines.
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Of late, marketmen have become skeptical of Plethico Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (Code: 532739) (Rs.350) on the back of the resignation of two key management personnel (Mr. Rajiv Bedi, President and Mr. Hemant Modi, CEO) in June 2011 and the company is unable to hold its AGM for CY10 within the stipulated time frame. Except for this, the company is fundamentally doing well. This is one company where investors have to consider the consolidated performance as its subsidiaries contribute more than 80% to the total profit with the parent company representing merely 20% of total PAT. For CY10 it recorded an impressive 20% increase in consolidated sales to Rs.1518 crore and net profit improved by 15% to Rs.231 crore (excluding extraordinary items). Thus it posted a basic EPS of Rs. 68 on its current equity of Rs.34 crore. Further, it reported a decent performance for Q1CY11 by posting a consolidated EPS of Rs.16 for the quarter. Unlike the majority of Indian pharma majors, this company focuses on high margin herbals and nutraceuticals in the global market. It derives almost 95% of revenue from these two segments and more than 90% of its business comes from overseas (35% from USA alone) and domestic sales constitutes hardly 10%. It is among the few companies that have 500+ formulations in more than 39 therapeutic segments and a portfolio of over 200 branded products sold in more than 60 countries. Its key subsidiary Natrol Inc, USA, boasts of marketing over 200 wellness products in USA under three preliminary brands Natrol, Prolab and MRI. Last year, the company entered into exclusive distribution agreement with Molekule India Pvt. Ltd. to market Natrols products in India for a period of three years. Further, it is striving to launch its leading homegrown brand Travisil and Actifresh SF in the US market. To augment its manufacturing capacity, it in the midst of setting up a modern medicated lozenges and solid doses formulation unit in UAE and has already invested over Rs.200 crore. Moreover, it is contemplating to set up another manufacturing unit at Kandla SEZ (Gujarat). Financially, apart from funding this capex, it also has to arrange funds for repayment of Rs.350 crore of FCCBs in 2012. Incidentally, the company has a very high promoter holding at 87% with just 10% being held by financial institutions and hardly 3% stake with the general public. Hence the company is looking to raise money via the equity route like preferential allotment, QIB placement etc., which may dilute its share capital in future. But the key factor will be the price at which the company will be able to place its shares. At the CMP, investors can buy this scrip and add more at declines.
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For Q1FY11, Eveready Industries India Ltd. (Code: 531508) (Rs.41.50) had posted excellent results on the back of lower raw material cost which will be difficult to match this time. Price of zinc, which constitutes 17% of raw material cost, has increased considerably in the recent past and is still trading high. Hence the company is expected to post disappointing performance for Q1FY12 with an estimated PAT of Rs.10-12 crore against Rs.15 crore in Q1FY11. After the result, its share price may drift down to around Rs.35 level when investors can safely accumulate it. Overall for entire FY12, the company is expected to clock a turnover of Rs.1000 crore with PAT of Rs.45 crore leading to an EPS of over Rs.6 on its equity of Rs.36.30 crore having a face value of Rs.2 per share. The company is the undisputed market leader in batteries commanding more than 51% market share and 76% in flashlight market in India. It is the worlds 3rd Why Techno Funda Plus is the safest & greatest way for investors? largest zinc carbon battery player The result is here putting to the market about 1.3 billion units a year catering to the entire In the last 3-4 months when the market was very weak and the sentiment range of equipments that need very poor, we recommended good fundamental stocks for 4-6 months portable energy. It has a strong investment. portfolio comprising dry cell batteries And now as the market shows strength, our Techno Funda Plus (carbon zinc batteries, rechargeable recommendations are zooming like anything. batteries and alkaline batteries), Just look at some stocks where we have booked over 10% profit during this flashlights (torches), CFLs (Compact period Fluorescent Lamps) and packet tea. Alembic Ltd. 19.04% Presently, the company is engaged in Atul Ltd. 15.62% enriching its portfolio of LED flashlights by introducing products BGR Energy 14% that are technologically more GSFC 14% advanced. Lately, the company has GNFC 16.12% introduced digiLED Lanterns which Fedders Lloyd 13.6% have become quite popular in a short J B Chemicals 11.85% time. With 4000 distributors and a Sunil Hitech 14% team of 1000 exclusive vans servicing National Peroxide 17.87% retailers, the company boasts of retail Priyadarshini Spg 19.40% penetration exceeding 65% in its class Subex Ltd. 29.41% of outlets. To set a foothold in the HSIL 20.21% global market, the company recently SKF India 6.95% acquired controlling stake in a French Ajanta Pharma 22.30% company called Uniross, which is engaged in the manufacturing and Kajaria Ceramics 22.40% marketing of rechargeable batteries Glenmark Pharma 14.75% and has strong presence in the Renaissance Jewel 30.68% European market. Considering the V-Guard 16.80% managements capabilities, track Dish TV 11.59% record and strong goodwill, this 100 Amar Remedies 16 % year old brand deserves much better valuation. A solid long-term bet. Also we had booked 50% profit in Elecon Eng, R S Software, Arvind, ****** Amara Raja Batteries, GSPL & Amar Remedies
Smart, Safe & Systematic
Indag Rubber Ltd. (Code: 509162)(Rs.98) is among the very
few companies that have not diluted its equity since the last two decades.
So what are you waiting for? Subscribe to Techno Funda Plus and earn smartly, safely & systemically For more details, contact moneytimes@vsnl.com
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In November 2007, the scrip had hit the Rs.100 mark for the first time and in March 2009 it tumbled below Rs.20 level. Subsequently, it again shot back to Rs.100 level and is now consolidating between Rs.90-100 for quite long. So virtually from November 2007 the share price has not appreciated in absolute terms but in the last 4 years, the companys sales as well as profit have grown at a CAGR of 25% & 35% respectively. With a vast experience of over 30 years, the company is a pioneer in the retreading business and has introduced cold retreading technology in India. It manufactures pre-cured tread rubber, universal spray cement, cushion gum, envelope and allied items for retreading of tyres through cold and hot processes. It offers complete range of application specific tread patterns for the transportation industry with cost effective tyre solutions. It not only sells its products across India but also exports to several countries from its two manufacturing facilities located in Nalagarh in Himachal Pradesh and Bhiwadi in Rajasthan. Importantly, as company was unable to meet the entire demand of its customers especially for procured tread rubber and rubber strip gum, it has expanded its capacity of tread rubber to 14,400 TPA from 8950 TPA and the of rubber gum to 21,600 TPA from 1,150 TPA in the last two years. With continuous awareness about retreading and the rising level of radialization in bus & truck tyres, the demand for quality retreads is increasing rapidly. Sensing an opportunity over here, couple of tyre companies have launched their own brand of retreads. But this will not impact the companys operations as it is the market leader with excellent reputation and good dealership network. However, high rubber prices is a cause of concern for the company. But this will indirectly direct more people towards re-treading as prices of new tyre have shot up proportionately. For FY11 companys sales has grown by 35% to Rs.150 crore but PBT improved by 15% to Rs.13.65 crore. Due to higher tax provisioning, PAT stood marginally lower at Rs.10.75 crore posting an EPS of Rs.20.50 on its tiny equity of Rs.5.25 crore. It has declared total 40% dividend for FY11 which gives a yield of 4% at CMP. At reasonable discounting by 7- 8 times the scrip can shoot up 50% within a year.
FIFTY FIFTY
By Kukku Investment Call * Hercules Hoists (Rs.265.35) manufactures material handling equipments such as Chain Pulley Blocks, Chain and Wire Rope Electric Hoists, Ratchet Hoists, Winches, Roll-out Racks, Light Profile Systems, Pulling and Lifting Machines, H.O.T./ E.O.T./ Jib Cranes, Floor Operated Stacker Cranes and Stores Stacker Cranes. The Company supplies its products to various industries such as iron & steel, cement, oil & gas, chemicals, construction, material handling equipment manufacturers, state electricity boards, turnkey solutions providers, etc. wherever unit loads are moved. The company also markets Shrouded Conductors of AKAPP, Netherlands. It closed down its Mulund factory w.e.f. 30 June 2009 and shifted the entire production to its new enlarged factory over six acres at Village Dhamani near Khopoli from July 2009. All the workmen employed in Mulund accepted the Voluntary Retirement Scheme (VRS) offered by the company and an amount of Rs.3,92,70,317 was paid to these workmen. The new larger factory not only gives a cost advantage, but also enables the Company to meet the growing market demand for its products and is poised to increase its sales and market share. The Company can now also make concerted efforts on exports. For the audited full FY11, net profit rose 107.85% to Rs.29.91 crore as against Rs.14.39 crore in FY10 while sales rose 40.51% to Rs.118.59 crore as against Rs.84.40 crore in FY10. ROCE was 42% while RONW was 29.5% and the company declared 300% dividend for the year. It is an asset based company having good land parcel at its Mulund unit at Mumbai, which if it develops will lead to huge earning on its small equity base of Rs.1.6 crore. Investors can keep a watch to accumulate this stock on dips for decent long-term growth. Market Guidance * Over the last year, Sonata Software (Rs.42.85) focused on its existing customer base as the foundation for growth. This strategy paid rich dividends, as the company was successful in growing the size of the teams working for existing customers as well as branch into newer divisions within these accounts through ongoing investments in account management capabilities. The Company has been doing well consistently well over last many years. It has increased dividend from 100% to 200% over the last five years. ROCE has remained well above 21% during this period consistently. Investors can keep a watch to accumulate this stock on dips. * Margins of Yuken India (Rs.232.55) are likely to remain under pressure due to rising input costs like raw materials and interest rate, which the company may not be in position to pass on to its customers in view of some slowdown in the capital goods sector. * Margins of Nilkamal Industries (Rs.282.95) have declined over the last two quarters and this trend to continue for some more time. We had advised profit booking in this stock about 6/8 months back above Rs.350 level. Investors can book profit on a pullback at higher levels.
* Supreme Industries (Rs.183.85) - There are some indication of a slowdown in the pipes sector. Moreover, the company is not in a position to sell in its real estate division. It is likely that its growth rate may get saturated. Investors can take advantage by booking profit gradually at every higher level. * The business of Mukand Engineers (Rs.32.30) is mainly in the areas of Supply and Erection of equipment for Power Generation Plants, Integrated Steel Plants, Aluminum Plants and Hydrocarbon Plants. The contracts cover erection of mechanical plant, Structural Works, Piping Works and Electrical works. The company also undertakes Engineering and Project Management jobs for rolling mills in Steel plants and Electrical works at Power plants. At the current market cap of Rs.40 crore, EPS of Rs.5.2 and share book value of Rs.43, the stock looks attractive at Rs.32, which is cum dividend. * Kilburn (Rs.52) is a technology led company specializing in process design, engineering, manufacturing, project management and installation of equipment and systems for various process plants. It is a leader in solid, liquid, gas drying systems and specially designed skid mounted packages for offshore platforms. Its products have diverse applications in industries like chemicals, petrochemicals, fertilizer, steel, refineries, oil & gas, power, food processing, etc. The company's focus is to meet the requirements of critically customized process equipments. It will benefit from its new facilities from the current year with likely increase in sales. Valuation of the company looks attractive as share book value is Rs.80, EPS Rs.8.8, dividend 25%. The stock is at present cum dividend. * Gandhimathi Appliances (Rs.296.95) touched a new all time high of Rs.310 during the week. Investors can book profit further in another 25% and continue to hold the balance for higher targets. * JB Chemicals (Rs.132.60) is another good stock where investors can take exposure on dips around Rs.130 level. * Nesco (Rs.673.70) gave a good upmove last week. Investors can continue to hold this stock. A closing above Rs.720 level will give a fresh upmove. * There is an increase in the raw sugar prices globally by 14% over the last one month. Investors can continue to hold Sugar sector stocks or accumulate them on dips. * Note: From our recommended stocks, Supreme Industries (Rs.187.20), Elanta (Rs.1920), Goodyear (Rs.371.90), Gandhimathi Appliances (Rs.310), V-Guard (Rs.237), KDDL (Rs.156.45), touched new highs. Investors need to be cautious and should avoid buying at higher levels in a heated up sentiment. They should book part profits at higher levels to increase their cash levels.
EXPERT EYE
Sandesh Ltd.: Booming prospects

A brokerage has come with a Buy report on Sandesh Ltd. (Code: 526725) (Rs.275) based on the bright prospects of the industry in which the company operates. Based on the current going, the share is expected to touch Rs.390 in the long term based on its FY13 P/E multiple of just 6. Headquartered is Ahmedabad, the company started its journey in the world of journalism in 1923. Since then, it has flourished into 5 editions and has played a critical and vital role in the upliftment and welfare of 5 crore Gujaratis. It covers the latest news and deals with the day-to-day situation with equanimity and fair judgment. Sandesh provides information and entertainment through its supplements dealing with almost all subjects. Till 1984, Sandesh was a single edition newspaper published from Ahmedabad. Then under an expansion programme new editions were launched from Baroda, Surat, Rajkot & Bhavnagar in 1985, 1989, 1990 and 1998 respectively. The company went public in 1994 with a premium of Rs.90 on its Rs.10 paid-up share and the issue was oversubscribed by 15 times. Initially in 1923, Shri Nandlal Bodiwala started Sandesh daily on a small scale. But in 1958, when the late Shri Chimanbhai Patel was at the helm of affairs in Gujarat, his vision, foresight and business acuemenship changed the destiny of Sandesh and its circulation began to increase by leaps and bounds. His unique contribution was Sunday Sanskar Poorti in Gujarati journalism, which included many celebrities as columnists. Thus he was the pioneer of Sunday Supplements in Gujarati journalism. He was always in search of new talent and new ideas to make Sandesh a unique and dynamic daily. It was this missionary zeal that made Sandesh a household name in Gujarat. The present CMD and the Editor of Sandesh, Shri Falgunbhai Patel, joined the organization in 1979 after completing his MBA in USA. His close collaboration with his father made a rare combination of wide experience and youthful dynamism that added a rare spirit of adventure and calculated business viewpoint in the development of Sandesh as a giant entity. Sandesh is selected by leading organizations all over India to advertise their products and services. There is hardly any brand / service available in Gujarat that is not advertised in Sandesh.
By Vihari
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During Q4FY11, it posted whopping 141% increase in the net profit at Rs.8.3 crore on 29% higher revenue of Rs.51.5 crore. During FY11, net profit shot up by 32% to Rs.44 crore on 31% lower revenue of Rs.207 crore and the EPS was Rs.51 and a dividend of 40% was paid. Its small equity of Rs.8.7 crore is supported by huge reserves of Rs.290 crore, the book value of the share works out to Rs.343 making it a strong bonus candidate. The debt:equity ratio is 0.065:1. The value of net assets is Rs.77.7 crore whereas investments stood at Rs.85 crore. The promoters hold 64.6% in its equity capital, Institutions holds 1.5% and with PCBs holding 2.4% leaves 31.5% with the investing public. Media and Entertainment (M&E) is one of the fastest growing sectors in India. The sector consists of creation, aggregation and distribution of content, products and services, news and information, advertising and entertainment through various channels and platforms. The industry is taking initiatives like regional content and distribution platforms (digital, non-digital and mobile) to enhance customer experience as well as monetize content. New technologies such as 3G, broadband and mobile infrastructure also help in propelling the growth rate. The Indian economy grew at a faster pace in 2010 compared to 2009, which translated into higher advertising as well consumer spending. This high growth rate will continue to remain in 2011 as well. The Indian advertising industry will grow by 17% in calendar year 2011 and is expected to add about US $889 million to the existing ad pie worth US $5248 million, investment newsletter according to Pitch Madison Media Seize profitable investment opportunities before the herd! Advertising Outlook 2011. This robust growth in the advertising industry will Over 50 low-risk, sure gain potential, off-beat stock picks in one benefit the M&E industry in 2011 as well. year by the experts at Money Times The entertainment industry in India is Near Term, Mid Term and Long Term recommendations with estimated at about US $9.4 billion in book-profit prices revenues in 2010, which is expected to Regular updates on earlier recommendations grow at a rate of 14.1% to touch US $10.7 Only for those serious about seeking investment profits billion in 2011. For private circulation via the internet or by courier only The Indian advertising industry will grow Other relevant market information from time to time at 17% to clock US $6136.2 million in 2011 reported by Pitch Madison Media Subscription Rates: 6 months: Rs.4000, 1 year: Rs.7000, 2 years: Advertising Outlook 2011. The print media Rs.12000, 3 years Rs.15000 generated advertising revenue of US $2.2 Contact Money Times on 022-22654805 or moneytimes@vsnl.com for a billion, growing at 28% compared to 2010 free sample today! while television advertising generated US $2.34 billion grabbing the biggest share of 44.5% of the entire advertising pie. The Out-Of-Home (OOH) advertising medium grew by 27% in 2010, commanding US $320 million of the total ad spends. Radio advertising too has grown by 30% to become a US $199 million industry. Internet penetration in India reached an all time high with 50 million plus connections in 2010. As per Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), the total Online Advertising market of India is estimated at US $174 million for FY10 and is expected to grow to US $220 million in FY11. The internet market is currently dominated by display ads and is expected to remain so for the next year. Total display advertising market of India in FY10 is estimated at US $92.5 million and is expected to grow by 28% to reach US $118 million in FY11. Total text advertising market of India in 2009-10 is estimated at US $81 million and is expected to grow by 25% to reach US $102 million in 2010-11. Banking, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI), Travel and Online Publishers -the top three text advertisers of FY10 are expected to continue to lead text based advertisers in FY11 as well. During FY12, Sandesh is expected to post an EPS of Rs.58, which could further go up to Rs.65 in FY13. At the current market price of Rs.275, the share is traded at a P/E of 4.7 on FY12 estimated earnings and 4.2 on FY13 porojected earnings. A conservative P/E multiple of even 6 will take the SL share price to Rs.342 in the medium-term and Rs.390 in the longterm.
Early Bird Gains
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Phillips Carbon Black: Benefits of expansion

The share of Phillips Carbon Black Ltd. (PCBL) (Code: 506590) (Rs.141.05) is recommended for its improving fundamentals.
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PCBL manufactures and supplies carbon black catering to the needs of elastomer, tyre, plastic, paints and ink manufacturing industries. It operates in two business segments: carbon black and power. After the recent commissioning of its 50,000 TPA capacity at Mundra, the companys total installed capacity of carbon black stands at 4,10,000 TPA. It has now four manufacturing units located in Durgapur in the East, Cochin in the South and Baroda and Mundra in Western India. The Durgapur unit now has a production capacity of 1,35,000 TPA with a proven capability to produce 24 grades of carbon black. PCBL has 70.5 MW of power generating capacity of which 10 MW power unit at Cochin commenced operation from April 2011. With the 8 MW captive power plant at Mundra expected to be commissioned by the end of FY2012, its total capacity will rise to 78.5 MW by Q3FY12. During Q4FY11, net profit fell 8% to Rs.33.3 crore on 22% higher sales of Rs.443.3 crore. The OPM & NPM stood 14.5% and 7.5% respectively against 15.3% and 10.0% in Q4FY10. During FY11, net profit fell by 5% to Rs.116.3 crore on 37% higher sales of Rs.1690.1 crore. A dividend of 50% (Rs.5 per share) has been proposed for FY11. The PAT for FY11 declined marginally due to the rising crude oil prices and the resulting volatility in the price of carbon black feedstock (CBFS), which affected the margins. Its equity capital is Rs.33.2 crore and with reserves of Rs.502 crore, the book value of its share works out to Rs.161. The promoters hold 47.3%, foreign holding is 15.8%, institutional holding 8.6%, government holding is 1.4% and with PCBs holding 12.0%, leaves 14.9% with the investing public. During FY10, PCBL offered the promoter group 12,50,000 convertible warrants @Rs.196 each with an option to subscribe to one equity share of Rs.10 each at a premium of Rs.186 per share fully paid up within 18 months from the date of allotment. PCBLs 80% JV in Vietnam will set up Vietnams first carbon black plant of 1,00,000 TPA capacity and Co-generation power plant of 16 MW in two phases. The carbon black capacity in the first phase will be 60,000 TPA and cogeneration power plant will be 12 MW at a total outlay of US $63 million, which is expected to be commissioned within 24 months of receipt of statutory clearance. PCBL also plans to set up a new manufacturing unit near Ennore in Tamil Nadu at an estimated cost of Rs.500 crore. It will be the company's largest unit in the country with an annual capacity of 1,40,000 tonnes. The project will require 60 acres and will also include a co-generation facility. The State Industries Promotion Corporation of Tamil Nadu (SIPCOT) is in the process of allotting land for the project. Carbon black, essentially a crude oil by-product, is used as a basic strengthening raw material for rubber and rubber products making it an excellent proxy play in the auto ancillary segment. It is made by shooting a hot mist of oil particles into a flame, a very expensive process that has limited the number of competitors in the industry. Tyre manufacturers are the major customers of the material. Demand growth for carbon black is linked to the Tyre Industry as well as for Non-Tyre rubber based application industry segments such as conveyor belts, auto ancillaries, printing ink, plastics etc. India is emerging as an automobile manufacturing hub for global auto majors especially for small cars. This will only help PCBL put in a spectacular performance. Since PCBL utilises the off-gas generated during the manufacture of carbon black for producing power, the company has no raw-material requirements. Hence, while power revenue would contributes a mere 6-7% to the companys top line in FY12E, at the bottom-line level it would contribute over 40-45% of the total profit. Thus, a high proportion of power revenue will percolate to the bottom line and lend visibility to the companys earnings while significantly de-risking its business model. The Mundra plant revenue has started accruing and efforts are on to compensate part of the cost-push through better utilization of the co-generation facilities using the tail gas for generation of electricity. For FY12, PCL is likely to post a net profit of Rs.139 crore on sales of Rs.2,000 crore, which would fetch an EPS of Rs.42, which could further go up to Rs.48 in FY13. At CMP of Rs.141, the share is trading at a P/E multiple of 3.4 on FY12 estimated earnings and 3 the FY13 projected earnings. A conservative P/E ratio of 5 will take its share price to Rs.210 in the medium-term and Rs.240 in the long-term. The 52-week high/low of its share has been Rs.242/113.
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Diamond Power Infra: Powering ahead

The FY11 results of by Diamond Power Infrastructure Ltd. (DPIL) (Code: 522163) (Rs.156.25) went overlooked by astute investors due to the quiet market conditions. The share is now available at a forward P/E of just 4.1 on FY12 estimated EPS of Rs.40.
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Incorporated in 1970, DPIL is an integrated power transmission and distribution services provider and Towers manufacturer. It has 4 manufacturing locations at Vadodara and Silvassa with an employee strength of 2412 of which 1440 are contract labourers. DPIL manufactures Extra High Voltage (EHV) cables over 132 KVAs and has also started producing high margin high value added low tension (LT) cables such as Aerial Bunch Cables (ABC) and fire resistant, control and instrumentation cables. It provides turnkey services in power transmission & distribution (T&D), manufactures Power Cables upto 550KV, Power & Distribution Transformers upto 220KV, T&D Towers Conductors upto 765KV and Transmission Towers. DPIL has introduced ABC, which is a combination of Aluminum Conductors, Polyethylene Insulated Conductors and Alloy Conductors. DPILs sales are divided into four segments-EPS (25%), Conductor (27%) Power Cables (32%) and Transformers (16%). DPIL has recently acquired Apex Electricals and Diamond Power Transformers (formerly Western Transformers), which manufacture transformers. It invested Rs.12.5 crore in Apex Electricals, a power transformer manufacturer with over 12,500 MV, capacity and manufacturing up to 220 KV class as part of a rehabilitation scheme. Its induction as the promoters of Apex Electricals makes it one of the largest transformer companies in India. For Q4FY11, its net sales rose 16% to Rs. 342 crore and net profit by 16% to Rs.26 crore. During FY11, net profit surged by 126% to Rs.114.2 crore on 101% higher sales of Rs.1453 crore and the EPS was Rs.30.7. DPILs equity capital is Rs.37.2 crore and with reserves of Rs.502 crore, the book value of its share works out to Rs.145. It has also strengthened its balance sheet by infusing funds worth Rs.150 crore through qualified institutional placements (QIP) and warrants. These funds will enhance its working capital needs and enable it to bid for higher value of project work. The promoters hold 40.2% in the equity capital, foreign holding is 24.1%, Institutional holding is 6.7% and PCBs hold of 3.7% leaving 25.3% with the investing public. DPILs Rs.292 crore capex was for expansion in LT/HT cables, transmission towers and EHV cables. During Q1 FY11, DPIL completed the expansion of LT cables of 25000 kms capacity and 2200 km of HT Cables. DIPL has commissioned India's first EHV cables plant to manufacture 500KV cables. This plant is supplied by Mallifer France and globally there are only seven manufacturers having capabilities of making power cables upto 500KV. It is also setting up an EHV plant of 132 KVAs to 400 KVAs with an installed capacity of 2,000 kms per annum. DPIL has started the trial production at its transmission tower facility at Vadodara in Q3FY11 at an investment of Rs.40 crore with a capacity of 8,000 TPA. The transmission towers will mainly cater to the in-house requirement of EPC projects in rural electrification. It also plans to expand its conductors business from the current 50,500 TPA to 250,000 TPA by FY12. DPIL has recently made an agreement to enter a JV with Skoda (India) Pvt. Ltd. and Schaltech Automation Pvt. Ltd. This JV will aggressively look for opportunities to tap the 440KV space since it provides better margins. Under this JV agreement, Skoda is expected to fulfill the pre-qualification criteria for the projects and provide the technical assistance, while DPIL will execute the projects and take care of the working capital requirements. The margins under this category are expected to be 3% higher than 200 KV segment. DPIL has recently received orders from Power Grid Corporation and SMO-SPIC for supply of 400 KV D/C line conductors. Its order book position currently stands at Rs.1722 crore. Its main clients are Larsen & Toubro, ABB, Tata Power, Power Grid and Siemens. The future holds promise for DPIL as it is the direct beneficiary of the centres huge Rs.4,30,000 crore XI plan and Rs.6,40,000 crore XII plan on power generation, transmission and distribution. With large capacities in Conductors (India's second largest), Power Cables (India's third largest), Power and Distribution Transformers (India's third largest), DPIL is all set to be the country's largest T & D equipment manufacturer. The capacity expansion and foray into transmission projects will enable DPIL to achieve robust growth in years. In FY12, DPIL is likely to post an EPS of Rs.40, which would further go up to Rs.45 in FY13. At the CMP of Rs.156, the share is trading at a P/E multiple of 3.9 on FY11 earnings and 3.4 on FY12 estimated earnings. The DPIL share is recommended with a target of Rs.220 in the medium-term and Rs.250 in the long-term at a conservative P/E ratio of 5.5.
TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
Review Last week, we recommended Hexaware India at Rs.71.40 with a short-term target of Rs.77-80. During the week, the stock zoomed to Rs.77.40 level and achieved our upper target.
R S Software (India) Ltd.

BSE Code: 517447 NSE Symbol: RSSOFTWARE Last Close: Rs.62.30
R S Software (India) Ltd. (RSL) was incorporated as a private limited company on 2 December 1987 under the Companies Act 1956 and was converted into a public limited company on 5 February 1992. Promoted by R.R. Jain, the company is a leading software company providing quality software services and consulting. In the past 18 years, the company grew with global leaders in the electronic payments industry. This was made possible through its deep engagement in the client's business space, backed by strong application management fundamentals that continue to power its core execution engine. The company has developed business solutions in Gift & Loyalty, Risk Prediction, Residual Management, Payment Gateway and Merchant Boarding Design to reduce customers cycle time for application development/integration. The company has the ability to scale up and manage large applications like development,
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maintenance, testing, 24x7 support for payment industry companies. It has an equity base of Rs.11.03 crore that is supported by reserves of around Rs.40 crore. The promoters hold 28.62%, non-promoter corporate bodies hold 16.66% while the investing public holds 52.96% stake in the company. For Q4FY11, it recorded net sales of Rs.50.61 crore with net profit of Rs.6.93 crore against net sales of Rs.37.27 crore with net profit of Rs.2.21 crore in Q4FY10. For full FY11, it recorded net sales of Rs.188.23 crore with net profit of Rs.20.70 crore against net sales of Rs.161.29 crore with net profit of Rs.9.57 crore FY10. The Q4FY11 EPS was Rs.6.28 while FY11 EPS is Rs.18.40 and it has announced 20% dividend for FY11. The book closure for dividend is from 14 July 2011. At the current level, the stock is available at P/E multiple of just 3.5. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.56. On the upper side, the stock will zoom to Rs.80-85 level in the medium-term.
MARKET FOLIO Bharatiya Global Infomedia IPO opens on 11th July

Bharatiya Global Infomedia Ltd., an IT based solutions and Digital Post Production company, is accessing the capital market with its IPO of 67,20,000 equity shares of Rs.10 each in the Price Band of Rs.75 to Rs.82 per equity share aggregating Rs.55.10 crore at the higher price band. The equity shares of the company are proposed to be listed on the BSE & NSE. The issue, which opens for subscription for all bidders on Monday, 11 July 2011 and closes on Thursday, 14 July 2011 has been assigned IPO GRADE 2 by CARE Ltd. indicating its below average fundamentals.
Editorial & Business Office: Goa Mansion (Gr. Floor), 58 Dr. S.B. Path (Goa St.), Near GPO, Fort, Mumbai 400 001. Phone: 022-2265 4805, Telefax: 022-2261 6970. Web Publishing Division: 307, Master Mind I, Royal Palms Estate, Survey No. 169, Aarey Milk Colony, Goregaon (E), Mumbai 400 065. E-mail:moneytimes@vsnl.com, Web: www.moneytimes.in Editor & Publisher: R.N. GUPTA CHENNAI: T.A.S. Venkatasubba Rao (Phone: 044-24917241, Mobile: 9444024664) JAIPUR: Satram Das (Phone: 0141-2636341) BANGALORE: V. Raghurama Reddy (Mobile: 9591763126 / 9379559166) DELHI: P. K. Vasudevan (Mobile: 9810513247) All rights reserved. No portion of this publication may be copied or reproduced without the written permission of the publisher. Any infringement of this condition will be liable to prosecution. Printed & Published by R.N. Gupta for the proprietors Time Communications (India) Ltd. and printed by him at The Urdu Press 79-A, Jairaj Bhai Lane, Mumbai 400 008. Registration No.: 63312/91, REGD. NO. MH/MR/South - 72/ 2006-08
Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any liability for the use of this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.
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