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EMPRESA DE GENERACIN ELECTRICA DE AREQUIPA S.A.

- EGASA 125-A/E Study for the Technical Economic Feasibility of Molloco Hydroelectric Power Plant CONSOLIDATED REPORT

5.0 5.1

SIMULATION OF RESERVOIRS AND ENERGY PRODUCTION Previous Investigations

The optimization studies of the scheme and design of the Molloco Project works are presented in Chapter 7 in the Chiquimo Association Report, 1986. The procedure applied and the main results obtained in such study are briefly described below. The optimization of the useful volume of each one of the reservoirs was carried out by a simulation of the system of three reservoirs with different combinations of volumes. The regulated firm flow was determined in each case with persistence of 95%, the corresponding installable power and the producible energy in both power houses, upper and lower, for plant factors 0.65 and 0.50. In order to estimate the benefits of power and energy, alternative thermal plants of turbogas type were considered in groups of 25MW, and vapor type in groups of 50 MW, as well as alternative costs of fuel of 20 and 26 $US per barrel, and updating rates of 8, 10 and 12%. The energy benefits were calculated considering the firm energy only. The simulations were performed using a series of monthly average flows synthetically generated of 50 years length and for the following useful volumes Machucocha: 0 up to 100 Mm3, Molloco: 0 up to 150 Mm3, Japo: 0 up to 60 Mm3. The results showed that the most favorable action would be to make use of the maximum verified volumes with a firm flow of 9.84 m3/s. With regard to the selection of the capacity installed, a set of simulations was performed by variation of plant factors ranging from 0.4 to 0.7. For an updating rate of 10%, there was a minimum cost for a plant factor of 0.60 corresponding to a design flow of both plants of 16.4 m3/s. The optimal dimensions of the conductors were determined considering different diameters and load losses. The final results in terms of useful volumes, operation levels and hydroenergetic parameters are shown in Chart 5.1 and Illustration 5.1.

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Chart 5.1: Parameters of the Molloco Scheme (Feasibility Study 1986)

Parameter Parmetro Design Diseo NAMO NAMI Useful volume Volumen til Parameter Parmetro Design Diseo Design flow Caudal diseo Design net head Salto neto diseo Installed power Potencia instalada Units (Pelton) Unidades (Pelton)

Reservoir Embalse

Machucocha

m snm m snm 3 Mm

4664.5 4655.5 100

Molloco 4480 4456 150

Japo 4218 4197 60


Scheme Esquema Total Total 16.4 2098 310 6

m /s m MW #

Power Plants Centrales Upper Lower Superior Inferior 16.4 16.4 1372 726 200 110 4 2

Producciones Monthly Mensuales Enero January Febrero February arzo MMarch Abril April ayo MMay June Junio July Julio August Agosto September Setiembre October Octubre November Noviembre December Diciembre
Productions

GWh

GWh

Promedio 85.8 86.6 109.4 97.3 86.4 83.3 86.0 85.8 79.5 79.5 76.2 79.9 1036 59

Superior Upper Average Firm

Firme 87.5 79.0 87.5 84.7 87.5 84.7 87.5 87.5 84.7 87.5 84.7 87.5 1030

Promed 51.9 54.5 64.6 54.5 47.5 45.2 46.5 46.3 43.0 42.9 41.2 43.5 582 60

Inferior Lower Average Firm Firme 46.9 42.3 46.9 45.4 46.9 45.4 46.9 46.9 45.4 46.9 45.4 46.9 552

Promedio 137.7 141.1 174.0 151.8 133.9 128.5 132.5 132.1 122.5 122.4 117.4 123.4 1617 60

Esquema Scheme Average Firm Firme 134.4 121.3 134.4 130.1 134.4 130.1 134.4 134.4 130.1 134.4 130.1 134.4 1583

Annual Anual Plant factor Factor planta

% %

Illustration 5.1: Molloco Generation Profiles (Feasibility Study 1986)

200 180
Promedio inferior Lower average Upper average Promedio Superior Firme Esquema Firm scheme

Energa energy (GWh) Monthly mensual (GWh)

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Ene Jan Feb Mar Abr May Jun Mar Apr May

Jul

Ago Aug

Set Oct Nov Dec Mes Sep Oct Nov Dic Month

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5.2

Regulation Plans and Scenario of Invetigation

The regulation plans of the Molloco basin were analyzed and evaluated in this study in a similar manner as the previous plans within the framework of several scenarios as defined below. 5.2.1 Development Scheme

The current scheme modified by the Consultant covers the same reservoirs and regulation sites and two heads with power houses; the upper head power house has been located upstream. According to the new scheme, the use of the total available slope (about 2160 m) between the Japo reservoir and the Colca River Valley is as follows: Upper head Lower head : Japo reservoir - Llatica Power house at approx. 3190 masl : Llatica Soro Power House (Colca River) at approx. 2050 masl

The corresponding gross heads result in approximately 1030 m and 1140 m for Llatica and Soro Power Plants respectively. Due to this modification, the current development scheme showed in Illustration 6.2 includes the following phases. Phase I: Machucocha Lake Reservoir Japo Reservoir Lower head with Soro Power House Molloco Reservoir Upper head with Llatica Power House

Phase II:

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Illustration 5.2: Schematic diagram of the Molloco hydroelectric usage

Etapa II Phase

4661 m

Laguna Machucocha Machucocha Lake

Huaytambo River Ro Huaytambo

Llocacocha River Ro Llocacocha

Derivacin Palca Ro Palca River Diversion

Phase Etapa II II

Molloco

4480 m

Est. Maria Perez Maria Perez Station

Molloco River Ro Molloco

Est. La Calera La Calera Station

Sillque River Ro Sillque Phase Etapa II

Ataccomayo River Ro Ataccomayo


4218 m

Japo

Phase 3190 m Etapa II II 3190 m


CLlatica HEPP .H. Llatica

Etapa II Phase

Soro C.H. Soro

Pallca Station Est. Pallca

2050m

Ro River Colca Colca

5.2.2

Definition of the scenarios

Since the energy benefits will be mainly performed through the generation of firm energy and since the contributions vary significantly within the year and year by year (as shown in Illustrations 4.3 and 4.5), it is essential to develop the regulation of the basin to the maximum. The scenarios defined represent possible alternative modes or strategies of operation in order to verify the ability of the reservoirs for maximizing the regulated firm flow. In order to facilitate comparisons between the diverse scenarios, the dimensions established in the feasibility study were taken as base case and replied in Chart 6.1 regarding the operation/useful volume levels of the reservoirs and the design flow of the power plants.

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The analysis procedure has been defined in the following steps: 1. Verification of alternative operation levels (NAMO), useful volume and regulation capacity. 2. Verification of variants of design flow and capacity installed. 3. Verification of the generation statistics obtained with the base case. 4. Analysis and documentation of the characteristics of the electrical system. 5. Detailed simulation of the configuration elected. 6. Sensitivity analysis. The results are submitted and will be discussed below from Section 1.6.4.

5.3

Methodology

The evaluation procedure of the possible regulation plans involves the simulation of the operation of reservoirs and hydroelectric power plants with different volumes and capacities under the diverse hydrologic conditions in the series of contribution in the historical period 1965-2007. 5.3.1 Simulation Model A set of computational tools of the Consultant was applied for this purpose. The main model applied, APROS, is able to simulate the water balance and transit over several interconnected sections and bodies of water that may contain any combination of components, such as:

Natural rivers and lakes, Water collection, Regulation reservoirs, Hydroelectric power plants, Channels and derivations through tunnels,

The water transit and management in every section or component is calculated according to the continuity principle over a common multi-annual period and with a discrete time interval: day, 10-days or month. Water Balance and Management The impounding operation is performed on the monthly values basis (or other established periods), applying the storage equation: Sm = Sm-1 + S S = ( Im - Om - Lm). tm
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Where: Sm Im Om Lm tm m = volume stored in the reservoir at the end of the m month (m3) = average flow to the reservoir during the m month (m3/s) = average discharge flow of the reservoir during the m month (regulated flow plus discharge by the weir) (m3/s) = losses in the reservoir (m3/s) = length of the time interval of the month = month index

The net losses in the reservoir are calculated as: Lm Where: Ei Ef = net evaporation at the beginning of the month (net evaporation = total evaporation minus precipitation on the reservoir) = net evaporation at the end of the month = (Ei + Ef ) / 2

For a determined reservoir volume, the corresponding level in the reservoir and its surface are determined through interpolation in the relations elevation-area-volume. The net losses in the reservoir are determined based on the evaporation rates at the beginning and at the end of every month. Power and Energy Calculation For the hydroelectric power plants, the power that may be generated is calculated according to the flow and head (reservoir level or head bed function) in each interval (month) over the simulation period by using the following formula: P where: P mt mg QT H = generation capacity (MW) = turbine efficiency (Q and H function) = generator efficiency = turbine flow (m3/s) = net head (m)
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= 9.81 mt mg QT H

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5.3.2 Entrance Data The entrance data of the model for a typical application include:

The monthly series of contributions (historical-extended) A series or profile of monthly evaporation; The topography of the reservoir and the operation levels and rules; Seasonal demands: minimum/ecologic flow, main demands for agricultural purposes and/or drinkable water.

For a complex system containing various hydraulic works, the other components are added in a given case, for instance:

Regulation reservoirs or other water sources/contributions; Water pipes (tunnels and channels) with their respective capacities; The hydroelectric power plants where the generation characteristics are represented in form of power matrices for the possible combinations of turbine flow and hydraulic head.

Contribution Series The calculation and preparation of the series of monthly contribution in the reservoirs Machucocha, Molloco and Japo Lakes are described in Chapter 1.4. The series lists are presented in Appendix G. For the elected simulation period 1965-2007, the multi-annual averages of contribution series (prepared by HEC-4 model): Machucocha, Molloco and Japo are 0.86, 6.41 and 12.84 m3/s, respectively. The monthly average statistics are shown in Chart 5.2. Chart 5:2: Monthly Contribution Statistics in the Reservoirs
Laguna Machucocha Machucocha Lake Max. Min. Mes PAver. Mx. rom. Mn Enero 1.98 6.50 0.17 January Febrero 2.38 4.30 0.46 February MMarch 2.85 6.00 0.54 arzo Abril 1.05 2.00 0.20 April MMay 0.46 0.83 0.16 ay June Junio 0.32 0.64 0.17 July Julio 0.28 0.42 0.17 August Agosto 0.23 0.39 0.14 Septemb. Setiembre 0.20 0.49 0.12 October Octubre 0.18 0.36 0.12 November Noviembre 0.20 0.37 0.04 DiDecember 0.32 0.61 0.08 ciembre PrAverage 0.86 (m/s) omedio 1.124 Coef. Var. Coef. Var. (mm/year) Runoff Escorrenta 313 (mm/ao)
Month

PAver. rom. 12.29 21.55 23.17 7.46 3.03 1.77 1.46 1.33 1.17 1.11 1.43 2.06 6.41 1.269 300

Molloco Molloco Max. Mx. 38.00 37.80 46.50 14.90 5.70 2.80 2.40 1.80 3.00 1.80 5.30 5.20

Min. Mn

1.20 3.70 5.40 2.10 1.50 0.87 0.49 0.96 0.53 0.23 0.69 0.99

Aver. Prom. 25.73 40.16 46.39 16.86 6.77 3.93 2.99 2.20 1.95 1.85 2.79 4.12 12.84 1.242 285

Japo Japo Max. Mx. 67.80 56.30 81.80 33.90 16.20 6.30 5.60 3.90 4.90 4.00 11.50 11.60

Min. Mn

2.00 7.00 13.80 6.20 2.40 2.20 1.60 0.65 0.50 0.39 1.20 1.80

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Monthly Evaporation Profile The net or effective evaporation is defined as the difference between the evaporation from the reservoir and the evapotranspiration occurred under natural conditions on the reservoir area. The calculation will be carried out every month for every reservoir based on the tank evaporation (adjusted), the rain and the runoff coefficient in the dam site according to the formula. ENm Where: EN ES P m = ESm - (1 ) Pm

net evaporation reservoir evaporation surface precipitation on the reservoir runoff coefficient index of the month

The Angostura meteorological station located in the neighboring basin at an elevation of 4220 masl - is the closest station to the reservoirs with representative monthly precipitation and evaporation records. The annual precipitation and evaporation values (tank or class- A Pan) registered in Angostura are 800 mm and 1567 mm respectively (Charts 3.2 and 3.3). Adjustment factors were applied based on these values considering the elevation and location differences in order to estimate the adequate values in the dam sites (Chart 6.3). A tank coefficient of 0.7 was applied to convert the evaporation measured in the evaporation pan. For a runoff coefficient, 0.44 was estimated in the three sites, and the relation was between the natural flow and the precipitation over the reservoir area. The monthly averages and the annual values of net evaporation were calculated and the results were 581, 666 and 840 mm for Machucocha, Molloco and Japo Reservoirs respectively, as it is shown in Chart 5.3. Chart 5.3: Net evaporation in the reservoirs
Laguna Machucocha
Month Mes

Machucocha Lake

Embalse Molloco
Runoff Es (mm)

Molloco Reservoir

Embalse Japo
Runoff Es (mm)

Japo Reservoir

E-pan (mm) 129.9 114.2 116.7 112.3 116.3 99.4 107.9 125.3 143.5 173.2 170.8 157.3 1567

Runoff Es (mm)

(mm)

Precip. (mm) 148.5 142.9 120.0 36.8 6.4 3.0 2.1 6.7 14.1 27.1 42.2 100.0 650

Enet (mm) -4.9 -11.1 3.2 47.1 66.5 58.3 63.9 71.9 78.6 89.3 79.4 38.9 581

(mm)

Precip. (mm) 128.0 123.1 103.4 31.7 5.6 2.6 1.8 5.8 12.2 23.3 36.4 86.2 560

Enet (mm) 9.6 2.5 15.1 52.5 69.6 60.7 66.5 75.2 82.9 95.3 86.4 50.1 666

(mm)

Precip. (mm) 102.8 98.9 83.1 25.5 4.5 2.1 1.5 4.6 9.8 18.7 29.2 69.3 450

Enet (mm) 32.9 24.2 34.8 64.0 78.6 68.1 74.4 84.8 94.5 110.3 102.6 70.8 840

Jan Ene Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Abr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Ago Sept Set Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dic

78.3 68.9 70.4 67.7 70.2 59.9 65.1 75.6 86.5 104.5 103.0 94.9 945

81.2 71.4 73.0 70.2 72.8 62.2 67.5 78.4 89.7 108.4 106.8 98.4 980

90.5 79.6 81.3 78.3 81.1 69.3 75.2 87.4 100.0 120.8 119.0 109.6 1092

Ao Year

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Reservoir topography The topography of the reservoirs is defined by the relation elevation area volume given by the respective storage curves. The same curves were applied as they were established and applied in the feasibility study. The maximum and minimum operation levels (NAMO / NAMI) indicated in Illustration 5.4 correspond to those previously established, defining the corresponding useful volumes of 100, 150 and 60 Mm3 (base case). Illustration 5.4: Storage curves, Machucocha Lake, Molloco, Japo Reservoirs

Area (km2)
17 4670 4665 4660 4655 16 15 14 13 12

Laguna Machucocha Machucocha Lake


11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Elevation (masl) Elevacin (m asl)

4650 4645 4640 4635 4630 4625 4620 4615 4610 4605 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 Volumen Volume Area Area NAMO 4664.5 msnm NAMO 4664.5 masl NAMI: 4655.5 masl NAMI: 4655.5 msnm

Volumen (Mm3 Volume (Mm ) )

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Area (km 2)
12 4490 4485 4480 4475 11 10 9 8 7

Molloco
6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Elevation (m asl) Elevacin (masl)

4470 4465 4460 4455 4450 4445 4440 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 Volumen Volume Area Area NAMO 4480 msnm NAMO 4480 masl NAMI: 4456 msnm NAMI: 4456 masl

3 Volumen (Mm3 Volume (Mm ) )

Area (km 2)
7.0 4230 4225 4220 4215 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0

Japo
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Elevation (masl) Elevacin (m asl)

4210 4205 4200 4195 4190 4185 4180 4175 4170 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Volumen Volume Area Area NAMO 4218 msnm NAMO 4218 masl NAMI: 4197 msnm NAMI: 4197 masl
3 VVolume (Mm 3) olumen (Mm )

110

120

130

140

Control Rules For this purpose involving the regulation of the reservoirs, neither strict operation rules nor retention levels are defined so as to maximize the firm flow only. During the operation, the filling and emptying cycle from the reservoirs is still performed freely in months and years, being controlled by the maximum and minimum levels only. In case the reservoir is filled to the maximum level, the discharge causes a spill. In case the reservoir is emptied to the minimum level, the discharge will be limited to a value similar to that of the contribution in the current month.
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Given persistence or excess flow probability, the adopted safety level of 95% means that the occurrence of a maximum of 25 deficit months (5%) is allowed within the simulation period of 43 years or 516 months. Water Demands It has been assumed that all the contribution of the reservoirs is usable without intervention or additional demand which will reduce the available flow. The demand of the ecological flow has not been considered to date.

5.4

Investigations 1: Alternative Operation Levels (NAMO)

The simulation strikes (scenarios R100 R500) plan to evaluate the ability of the reservoirs to regulate the multi-annual contribution as it is defined by the monthly series over the period 1965 2007. The calculation procedure and the results obtained in terms of regulated firm flow with persistence of 95%, is shown in Chart 5.4. The corresponding analyses are described in detail below: Chart 5.4: Calculation procedure: alternative operation levels (NAMO)
Scenarios Escenarios R R (regulation) Reservoirs Embalses NAMO (masl) Reservoirs Embalses 3 Regulated firm flow (m /s)

Incr. (%) x

NAMO (m snm) Machucocha 4666.4 * 4662 4661 4660 4661 Molloco x Japo x

Caudal Firme Regulado (m3/s) Machucocha 0.84 ==> 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 ==> Molloco x Japo x

(regulacin) 100 1 Machucocha 2 (-) 3 4 200 Japo (+)


Phase Etapa II

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

4218 * 4220 4222 4224 4218

5.9 6.3 6.9 7.4 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.5 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.7

0 6.8 16.9 25.4 0 1.1 2.1 3.2 0.0 3.2 7.4 11.7 0.0 4.3 8.5 13.8

300 Molloco (+) EPhase II tapa II 400 Japo (+)


Phase II Etapa II

4661

4480 * 4482 4484 4486 4480 *

0.84 ==>

5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 5.8

4661

4218 * 4220 4222 4224 4218 * 4220 4222 4224 4218

0.84 ==>

500 1 Japo (+) 2 Molleco (+) 3 Phase II Etapa II 4 * Est.Fact. * Feas. Study 1986:

4661

4666.4

4480 * 4482 4484 4486 4480

0.84 ==>

5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1

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5.4.1 Scenarios R100: Machucocha With a NAMO of 4666.4 masl and NAMI of 4655.5 masl as it was defined above, the reservoir has a useful volume of 100 Mm3 representing more than three times the annual average contribution of 0.865 m3/s (27.3 Mm3). Aiming at maintaining the maximum regulated flow (0.84 m3/s), a progressive reduction of the NAMO (maintaining also the NAMI) was verified up to an elevation of 4660 masl. In the balance simulation, the evaporation losses (additional) were calculated to be just over 4659 masl, which is the average elevation of the surface of the lake in natural conditions. The results shown in Chart 5.5 and Illustration 5.5 indicate that the NAMI is reached only for a NAMO equal or below 4661 masl, and that the useful volumes for NAMOs of 4662 and 4664.5 masl are not used. The evaporation losses are to be reduced significantly. In terms of (non-firm) energy that may be generated in the power plants, the economic value of the loss of water by additional evaporation assuming an assessment rate of 2.5 US/kWh - is considerable. Chart 5.5: NAMO Reduction, Machucocha Lake
Scen R Escen. Operation Level n Nivel Operaci Reservoir Volume e Volumen Embals Regulation Regulacin Loss por Evaporaci Prdida by Evaporation n

R 101 102 103 104

NAMO N mn NAMO N min mmasl snm 4664.5 4657.3 4662 4656.0 4661 4655.5 4660 4655.5

Vtil Useful V Vusado Used V Mm Mm33 100 70 60 50 79.2 64.5 60 50

Firme Persist. . Persist Firm m3/s % m3/s % 0.84 100 0.84 100 0.84 99.6 0.84 98.8

Evap. m3/s 0.044 0.021 0.015 0.010

Potencia Energa Valor Value Power Energy 3 MW GWh/a 03 $/ MW GWh/a 110 $/a 0.811 7.11 178 0.387 3.39 85 0.276 2.42 61 0.184 1.62 40

Illustration 6.5: NAMO Reduction, Machucocha Lake


Useful Volume (available) Volumen Util (disponible) V olumenVolume (required) ) Used Utilizado (requerido Nivel minimo level reached Minimum alcanzado NAMI 1986 = 4655.5 NAMI 1986 = 4655.5 NAMO 1986 = 4664.5 NAMO 1986 = 4664.5

4666

120

4664

100 80
3 Volumen (Mm 3 Volume (Mm ) )

Nivel mnimo (m (masl) Minimum level snm)

4662

Useful Volume Volumen Util isponible) => (d(available) =>

4660 Volumen Used Volume Utilizado => (required) => (requerido) 4662 4661 NAM O 3 4661 4660 NAM O 4 4660

60

4658 4656

Minimum Ni vel mnimolevel


4664.5

40 20

NAM O 1 4654 4665 4664

NAM O 2 4663 4662

0 4659

Nivel mximo operacin: NAMO (m Maximum operation level: NAMO (masl)snm)

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50 45 40 Potencia Power Evaporation Evaporacin

0.9 0.8 0.7

Evaporacin(l/s) Evaporation (l/s)

30 25 20 15 10 NAM O 1 5 4665 4664 4663 <- Evaporation <= Evaporacin ( prdida) (loss)

Potencia => Power -> (prdida) (loss)

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

NAM O 2 4662

NAM O 3 4661

NAM O 4 4660 0.0 4659

Nivel mximo operacin: NAMO (m Maximum operation level: NAMO (masl)snm)

9 8 7 Valor energtico Energy value Energa Energy

180 160 140 120 100 <= Energa <= Energy (prdida) (loss) VaEnergy value lor energtico (loss) => (prdida) => 80 60 40 20 NAM O 1 NAM O 2 4663 4662 NAM O 3 4661 NAM O 4 4660 0 4659
3 Valor energtico (10 3 $/a) Energy Value (10 $/a)

Energa (GWh/a)) Energy (GWh/a

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4665

4664

Nivel mximo operacin: NAMO (m Maximum operation level: NAMO (masl) s nm)

According to this evaluation, reducing the operation level to, for instance, 4661 masl seems to be favorable offering a useful volume of 60 Mm3 and a regulated firm flow of 0.84 m3/s (97% of the average contribution) with a persistence of 99.6%.

5.4.2 R200 Scenarios: Japo (without Molloco) In the R200 scenarios, the NAMO of the Japo Reservoir (initial 4218 masl with useful volume of 60 Mm3) is elevated from 2m to 4224 masl (useful volume of 90.4 Mm3). The results are shown in Chart 5.6 and Illustration 5.6.

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Potencia (MW ) Power (M/W)

35

0.6

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Chart 5.6: NAMO elevation, Japo Reservoir, without Molloco

Escen. NAMO NAMO masl R m snm 201 202 203 204 4218 4220 4222 4224

Scen R

Nivel Operacin VReservoir Volume olumen Embalse Operation Level PAverage romed. masl m snm 4212.1 4213.3 4214.8 4216.0 Total Total 72 80 91.2 102.4 Util Useful
3 Mm3

Regulacin (95%) ) Regulation (95% FFirm irme 3 m3/s m 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.4 Increm. Incr. 3 m3/s m
0

Spill Derr3 m /s ame m3/s

Loss Firm Energy Value Prdida Valor energtico firme vapor. EEvap. 3.5 (c/kWh) 3 3 m /s m3/s MW GWh/a 10 $/a

60 68 79.2 90.4

0.4 1.0 1.5

6.97 6.58 6.02 5.55

0.082 0.088 0.093 0.099

4.3 10.8 16.2

37.8 94.5 141.8

1,323 3,308 4,962

This configuration of the scheme without or before the introduction of the Molloco Reservoir corresponds to the Phase I which covers the Macucocha Lake, the Japo Reservoir and the Soro hydroelectric power plant. With the initial NAMO (base case), the useful volume of 60 Mm3 offers a firm regulation of 5.9 m3/s (46% of the average contribution), while the firm regulation increases from 5.9 to 7.4 m3/s (58 % of the average contribution) with an elevation of 6 m. Since every increase of the firm flow will be used as firm energy, the increase of firm energy (for 6 m of elevation) involves 142 GWh per year. Assuming an assessment rate of firm energy of 3.5 US/kWh, the annual economic value results in 4.96 M$US.

Illustration 5.6: NAMO elevation, Japo Reservoir, without Molloco

10 9

Descarga (m3/s Discharge (m /s) )

8 7 6 5 4
4218

Caudal Regulado (firme) Regulated Flow (firm)

4220

4222

4224

NAMO (m snm) Japo NAMO (masl)

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120 100

Volumen(Mm3) ) Volume (Mm3

80 60 40 20 0 4218 4220 4222 4224 NAMO (m snm) Japo NAMO (masl)


Volumen total
Total Volume

Useful til Volumen Volume

160 140
Annual Anual (GWh) Energa Energy (GWh)
Incremento Energa firme Firm Energy Increase Annual Value Valor annual

8000 7000
Annual Value (103 $)
0

100 80 60 40 20 0 4218 4220 4222

5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

4224 NAMO (m snm) Japo NAMO (masl)

5.4.3 R300 scenarios: Molloco elevation with constant Japo (NAMO 4218 ) In R300 scenarios, the NAMO of Molloco Reservoir (initial 4480 masl with useful volume of 150 Mm3) is elevated from 2 m to 4486 masl (useful volume of 216 Mm3), while the NAMO of the constant Japo Reservoir remains at 4218 masl. The results are shown in Chart 5.7 and Illustration 5.7. Chart 5.7: NAMO elevation, Molloco Reservoir (constant Japo)
Scen

Nivel Operacin Volumen Embalse Operation Level Reservoir Volume Total Total 165 187 209 231 Util Useful Mm33 Mm 150 172 194 216

Regulacin Firme (95%) Firm Regulation (95%) olloco Japo MMolloco Japo 3 m3/s m /s 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 crem InIncr. . 3 m3/s m /s
0

R Escen. NAMO Promed. NAMO Aver. masl masl R m snm m snm

Spill Derrm3/s ame m3/s

PLoss Valor energtico firme rdida Firm Energy Value (c/kWh) EEvap. vapor. 3.5 3 m 3/s m /s MW GWh/a 103$/a 0.178 0.185 0.190 0.193
0 0

302 302 303 304

4480 4482 4484 4486

4473.2 4474.2 4474.6 4475.1

0.1 0.2 0.3

0.61 0.50 0.39 0.28

Valor anual (103 $)

120

6000

1.8 3.7 5.5

16.2 32.3 48.5

566 1,132 1,698

This configuration of the scheme corresponds to the Phase II including the second Llatica hydroelectric power plant. With the initial NAMO (base case), the useful volume of 150 Mm3 offers a firm regulation of 5.8 m3/s (90.6 % of the average contribution).

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With an elevation of 6 m, the firm regulation increases by 6.1 m3/s (95.2 % of the average contribution). Similarly, the regulated firm flow in the Japo reservoir increases from 9.4 to 9.7 m3/s. The increase corresponding to the firm energy reaches 48.5 GWh per year. Given an assessment rate of firm energy of 3.5 US/kWh, the annual economic value is 1.70 M$US. Illustration 5.7: NAMO elevation, Molloco Reservoir (constant Japo)

10 9

Descarga (m /s Discharge (m /s) )

3 3

8 7 6 5 4 4480

Caudal regulado Japo Japo regulated flow Molloco regulated flow Caudal regulado Molloco

4482

4484

4486

NAMO (m snm) Molloco NAMO (masl)

240 220

Volume ) Volumen (Mm 3)

200 180 160 140 120 100 4480 Volumen total Total volume Useful til Volumen volume

4482

4484

4486

NAMO (m snm) Molloco NAMO (masl)

50 45

2000 Incremento Energa firme Firm energy increase


Annual value Valor anual

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 4486

Energaenergy (GWh) Annual Anual (GWh)

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 4480

4482

4484

NAMO (m snm) Molloco NAMO (masl)

5.4.4 R400 scenarios: constant Molloco (NAMO = 4480) with elevated Japo
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Valor anual (103 $) 3 Annual value (10 $)

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In R400 scenarios, the NAMO of the Japo reservoir (initial 4218 masl with useful volume of 60 Mm3) is elevated from 2 m to 4224 masl (useful volume of 90 Mm3), while the NAMO of the constant Molloco Reservoir remains at 4480 masl. The results are shown in Chart 5.8 and Illustration 5.8. Chart 5.8: NAMO elevation, Japo reservoir (constant Molloco)
Scen R Operation Level Reservoir Volume Firm Regulation (95%) Spill

Nivel Operacin Volumen Embalse NAMO Aver. Useful Escen. NAMO Promed. Total Total Util 3 masl masl Mm R m snm m snm Mm3 401 402 403 404 4218 4220 4222 4224 4212.1 4213.3 4214.8 4216.0 72 80 91.2 102.4 60 68 79.2 90.4

Regulacin Firme (95%) MMolloco Japo InIncr. olloco Japo crem. 3 3 m m m3 /s m3 /s 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.5
0

Derrm3/s ame m3/s 3.45 3.16 2.78 2.42

Loss Firm Energy Value Prdida Valor energtico firme Evap. Evapor. 3.5 (c/kWh) 3 m /s 3 m3/s MW GWh/a 10 $/a

0.3 0.7 1.1

0.081 0.087 0.094 0.100

5.5 12.9 20.3

48.5 113.2 177.9

1,698 3,962 6,226

With an elevation of 6 m, the firm regulation in the Japo reservoir increases from 9.4 to 10.4 m3/s (82% of the average contribution). The increase corresponding to the firm energy reaches 178 GWh per year. With an assessment rate of firm energy of 3.5 US/kWh, the annual economic value results in 6.23 M$US.

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Illustration 5.8: NAMO elevation, Japo reservoir (constant Molloco)

11 10
Discharge (m /s) Descarga (m 3/s)
3

9 8 7 6 5 4218 4220 4222 4224 NAMO (m snm) Japo NAMO (masl)


Caudal Regulado Japo Japo regulated flow Molloco regulated flow Caudal regulado Molloco

120 100
(%)(%) Aporte Contribution

80 60 40 20 0 4218 4220 4222 4224 NAMO (m snm) Japo NAMO (masl)


Volumen total Total volume Useful til Volumen volume

200 180

10000
Incremento Energa firme Firm energy increase
Annual value Valor anual

9000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

Energa energy (GWh) Annual Anual (GWh)

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 4218 4220 4222

4224 NAMO (masl) NAMO (m snm) Japo

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33

140

Valor value (10 $) Annualanual (10 $)

160

8000

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5.4.5 R500 scenarios: Molloco elevation, Japo elevation R500 scenarios involves the combination of scenarios R300 + R400, where the NAMO of the Molloco reservoir is elevated from 4480 masl to 4486 masl and the NAMO of the Japo reservoir is elevated in increases of 2 m from 4218 masl to 4224 masl. The results are shown in Chart 5.9 and Illustration 5.9. Chart 5.9: NAMO elevation, Japo and Molloco Reservoirs
Embalse Molloco Scen Operation Level Reservoir Volume Nivel Operacin Volumen Embalse Escen. NNAMO PAver. d. AMO rome masl masl R m snm m snm 501 502 503 504 4480 4482 4484 4486 4473.2 4474.2 4474.6 4475.1
R Molloco Reservoir

Firm Regulation (95%) Regulacin Firme (95%)

Total Total 165 187 209 231

Util Useful
Mm Mm3

Molloco Molloco m /s m33/s 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1

Spill Loss Derr- Prdida m3/s Evap. Increm. ame Evapor. Incr. 3 m /s m m3/s m3/s m3/s
0

150 172 194 216

0.1 0.2 0.3

0.61 0.50 0.39 0.28

0.178 0.185 0.190 0.193

alse Japo EmbJapo Reservoir Scen Operation Level Reservoir Volume Nivel Operacin Volumen Embalse R AMO rome Total Util Escen. NNAMO PAver. d. Total Useful 3 masl masl R m snm m snm Mm3 Mm 501 502 503 504 4218 4220 4222 4224 4212.1 4213.4 4214.9 4216.5 72 80 91.2 102.4 60 68 79.2 90.4

Firm Regulation (95%) Spill Regulacin Firme (95%) Derr- Prdida VFirm Energy Value me Loss alor energtico fir m3/s Evap. olloco ->Japo Incr. MMolloco -> Japo Increm. ame Evapor. 3.5 (c/kWh) 3 3 m /s 3 m3/s m3/s m3/s m /s MW GWh/a 10 $/a m33/s m /s

5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1

9.4 9.8 10.2 10.7

0.4 0.8 1.3

3.45 3.16 2.78 2.42

0.081 0.087 0.094 0.100

7.4 14.8 24.0

64.7 129.4 210.2

2,264 4,528 7,358

With an elevation of 6 m in both reservoirs, the firm regulation in the Japo reservoir increases from 9.4 to 10.7 m3/s (83% of the average contribution). The increase corresponding to the firm energy involves 210 GWh per year. Assuming an assessment rate of the firm energy of 3.5 US/kWh, the annual economic value results in 7.36 M$US.

5.4.6

Summary of the Results

Comparing the scenarios R200 to R500: In scenario R204, an elevation of 6 m of the Japo reservoir (without Molloco) increases the firm regulation in 25.4%, and the firm energy value is increased in 4.9 M$US/a. In scenario R304, an elevation of 6 m of the Molloco reservoir increases the firm regulation (in Japo) in 3.2%, and the firm energy value is increased in 1.7 M$US/a. In scenario R404, an elevation of 6 m of the Japo reservoir increases the firm regulation in 11.7%, and the annual firm energy value is increased in 6.2 M$US/a. In scenario R504, an elevation of 6 m of both reservoirs increases the firm regulation (in Japo) in 13.8%, and the firm energy value is increased in 7.3 M$U/a. In conclusion, if the topographical, geological and ecologic conditions permit so, it will be necessary to consider an elevation of the NAMO of the reservoirs, particularly of the Japo reservoir up to 6 m or more.
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Illustration 5.9: NAMO elevation, Japo and Molloco Reservoirs

NAMO (m (masl) NAMO JapoJaposnm)

4218 11 10
3 Descarga (m 3/s) Discharge (m /s)

4220

4222

4224

Japo

9
Caudal regulado Molloco

8 7

Molloco regulated flow

Japo regulado Japo Caudal regulated flow

Molloco
6 5 4480 4482 4484 4486 NAMO Molloco snm) NAMO Molloco (m (masl)
Japo Japo (masl) NAMO NAMO (m snm) 4218 240 220 200 4220 4222 4224

Molloco

Volumen(Mm3) Volume (Mm3)

180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 4480 4482 4484 4486 Molloco (m (masl) NAMONAMO Molloco snm)
Molloco Molloco Total total Molloco til Useful Molloco Japo total Total Japo Japo til Japo Useful

Japo

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NAMO Japo snm) NAMO Japo (m(masl)

4218 220 200


Annual Anual (GWh) Energaenergy (GWh)

4220

4222

4224 11000 10000 9000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 4480

Incremento Energa firme Firm energy increase


Annual value Valor anual

4482

4484 4486 NAMO Molloco (m snm) NAMO Molloco (masl)

5.5

Investigations 2: Variants of design flow/ installed capacity

5.5.1 Definition of the scenarios The scenarios called E100 and E200 plan to evaluate the generation capacity of the Molloco complex corresponding to the Phase I and II respectively, and for a design flow rate. The simulation strikes - performed by the APROS model are defined for 6 design flow variants covering 10 to 20 m3/s, in increases of 2 m3/s. No increase or collection of additional flow is considered throughout the hydraulic scheme; therefore, the design flow remained in the same condition for both phases and both power plants. In order to assess and compare the results of the following energy values or assessment rates, the following have been assumed: Firm energy: 3.5 US/kWh Energy in rush hours: 3.5 US/kWh Non-firm energy Energy in non-rush hours 2.5 US/kWh 2.5 US/kWh

The origin and justification of these values are based on the marginal costs and bar rates of the SEIN energy generation system discussed below in Chapter 6.7.2 For each variant of both power plants - Llatica and Soro the respective power matrices were prepared representing the optimal operation of the power plant in terms of number of units, turbine flow and hydraulic head. According to the new configuration of the power houses and the hydraulic heads (Chapter 6.2.1, Illustration 6.2), two units installed in each plant have been elected resulting in capacities between 2x44 and 2x87 MW in Llatica, and 2x49 and 2x98 MW in Soro for design flows of 10 and 20 m3/s, respectively. The diameter of the conductions was also adjusted for each variant so as to limit the hydraulic losses within a consistent range.

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Valor anual (1033 $) Annual value (10 $)

8000

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With regard to the operation levels (NAMO) and corresponding useful volumes, the original values were adopted: Machucocha NAMO 4661 masl (60 Mm3), Molloco NAMO 4480 masl (150 Mm3), Japo 4218 masl (60 Mm3). In the following simulations over the period of 43 years 1965-2007, the common conventions regarding firm power were applied. The power per month was generated with persistence of 95%, and the equivalent value of the firm energy was generated per year. Similarly, the guaranteed power is defined as the power generated in rush hours (assuming 5 hours per day) with a persistence of 95%, as well as the equivalent value of the energy generated in rush hours per year. In both cases, the values of non-firm energy and non-rush hour energy are given by the difference between the annual average energy and the respective firm and rush hour values. The calculation procedure and the results obtained in terms of capacity installed and annual average and firm energy are observed in Chart 5.10. It is highlighted that the capacity installed indicated in the following charts for the Llatica and Soro power plants currently represents the maximum power that may be generated in the hydroelectric power plant considering the corresponding efficiencies of the turbines, generators and transformers. The results are shown in detail below. Chart 5.10: Calculation procedure: Design flow and installed capacity variants

Scenarios Escenarios

Design Caudal 3 flow m /s diseo

00 E1E100
Phase I Machucocha Etapa I Japo Machucocha SoroJapo HEPP

C.H. Soro Escenarios Scenarios E200 Etapa Phase II II Machucocha Machucocha Molloco co Mollo JapoJapo LlaticaLlatica C.H. HEPP Soro HEPP C.H. Soro

1 2 3 4 5 6

m3/s 10 12 14 16 18 20 Caudal Flow 3 m m3/s 10 12 14 16 18 20

Capacity Instalad Capacidadinstalled a Soro MW 97.2 117 136 156 176 196

EEnergy nerga PAverage romedio Firm e Firm GWh/a GWh/a GWh/a GWh/a 601 507 644 506 680 501 713 500 748 501 778 501 PAverage romedio GWh/a /a GWh 1513 1594 1646 1708 1756 1787 Firm Firm e GWh/a GWh/a 1496 1496 1483 1502 1503 1488

1 2 3 4 5 6

Llatica MW 87.3 105 122 139 157 174

+Soro MW 185 222 259 295 333 370

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5.5.2 Results: Design flow/installed capacity variants Phase I According to the configuration of Phase I, the simulation results for the design flow variants 10 to 20 m3/s are observed in Chart 5.11. Chart 5.11: Generation statistics Phase I
Phase I: Machucocha/Japo Reservoirs (Qfirm=5.9) Embalses Machucocha / Japo (Qfirme=5.9) Etapa I: Firme Energa (GWh/a) Qturb Potencia (MW) Power (MW) Energy (GWh/a) Firm Inst. Aver. Firm Gar. Aver. Firm N.R. (%) (%) m3/s Inst. Prom. Firme Guar. Prom. Firme F.P.(%) (%) 10 97.2 68.5 57.8 97.2 600.5 506.7 70.5 84.4 12 116.9 73.5 57.7 116.9 643.9 505.8 62.9 78.6 14 136.4 77.6 57.2 136.4 679.8 501.4 56.9 73.8 16 155.9 81.4 57.0 155.9 713.4 499.7 52.2 70.0 18 175.9 85.4 57.1 175.9 748.1 500.5 48.6 66.9 20 195.5 88.9 57.1 195.5 778.1 500.5 45.5 64.3

Central Hidroelctrica Soro Valor energtico (M$/a) Valor energtico (M$/a) Energy Value (M$/a) Energy Value (M$/a) Firm Non-firm Total Rush Non-rush Total Firme No-firme Total Punta F-punta Total 17.73 2.35 20.08 6.21 10.57 16.79 17.70 3.45 21.16 7.47 10.76 18.23 17.55 4.46 22.01 8.72 10.77 19.49 17.49 5.34 22.83 9.96 10.72 20.68 17.52 6.19 23.71 11.24 10.67 21.91 17.52 6.94 24.46 12.50 10.53 23.02

Soro Hydroelectric Power Plant

As it was already established in scenario R201, Chapter 6.4.2., with the configuration and volumes of the Machucocha and Japo Lake, the final regulated firm flow in the Japo reservoir resulted in 5.9 m3/s. The power installed in the Soro power plant and the guaranteed power range between 97.2 MW and 195 MW. Since the regulated firm flow is below the design flow, the firm power and the firm energy are not influenced by the capacity installed. The average values result in 57 MW and 502 GWh/a respectively on the range of the variants. The plant factors, as well as the percentage of firm energy, are reduced as the capacity installed is increased, provoking that the energy is increased by the non-firm energy above the firm generation (502 GWh/a).

Phase II The results of the simulation for the final scheme Phase II involving the three reservoirs and both power plants observed in Chart 5.12 are of greater importance.

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Chart 5.12: Generation statistics Phase II


Phase II: Machucocha/Molloco/Japo Reservoirs (Qfirm=9.4) Llatica/Soro Hydroelectric Power Plants Etapa II: Embalses Machucocha / Molloco / Japo (Qfirme=9.4) Centrales Hidroelctricas Llatica / Soro

Qturb Potencia (MW) Energa (GWh/a) Efirm Valor energtico (M$/a) VaEnergy Value (M$/a) lor energtico (M$/a) Power (MW) Energy (GWh/a) Firm Energy Value (M$/a) Inst. Aver. Firm Gar. Aver. Firm N.R. (%) (%) Firm Non-firm Total Rush N-rush Total m3/s Inst. Prom. Firme Guar. Prom. Firme F.P.(%) (%) Firme No-firme Total Punta F-punta Total 10 87.3 97.2 81.3 91.3 172.6 85.7 96.1 181.8 88.5 99.3 187.8 91.8 103.0 194.8 94.3 106.0 200.3 95.9 108.0 203.9 79.5 91.2 170.7 79.9 90.8 170.7 79.2 90.0 169.2 80.2 91.2 171.4 80.2 91.3 171.5 79.3 90.5 169.8 85.2 97.2 182 102.6 116.9 220 119.3 136.4 256 136.0 155.9 292 153.4 175.9 329 170.0 195.5 366 713 799.7 1513 751.5 842.2 1594 775.6 870.3 1646 805 902.5 1708 826.7 928.9 1756 841.1 946.0 1787 696.9 799.5 1496 700.4 796.0 1496 694.3 788.9 1483 703.0 799.5 1502 702.6 800.3 1503 695.1 793.3 1488 93.1 93.9 93.5 81.6 82.2 81.9 72.4 72.8 72.6 65.9 66.1 66.0 60.0 60.3 60.1 55.1 55.2 55.1 97.7 98.9 93.2 94.5 93.9 89.5 90.7 90.1 87.3 88.6 88.0 85.0 86.2 85.6 82.6 83.9 83.3 24.39 52.37 24.51 27.86 52.37 24.30 27.61 51.91 24.61 27.98 52.59 24.59 28.01 52.60 24.33 27.77 52.10 0.40 0.01 0.41 1.28 1.16 2.43 2.03 2.03 4.07 2.55 2.58 5.13 3.10 3.21 6.32 3.65 3.82 7.47 24.79 27.99 52.78 25.79 29.01 54.81 26.33 29.65 55.98 27.16 30.56 57.71 27.69 31.23 58.92 27.98 31.58 59.56 5.45 6.21 11.66 6.56 7.47 14.03 7.63 8.72 16.34 8.69 9.96 18.66 9.81 11.24 21.05 10.87 12.50 23.36 13.94 15.55 29.49 14.10 15.72 29.82 13.94 15.53 29.47 13.92 15.44 29.36 13.66 15.19 28.86 13.27 14.72 27.99 19.38 21.77 41.15 20.66 23.19 43.85 21.57 24.25 45.82 22.61 25.41 48.02 23.47 26.43 49.90 24.13 27.22 51.35 100.0 27.98

Esq. 184.5 12 105.0 116.9

Esq. 221.9 14 122.2 136.4

Esq. 258.6 16 139.4 155.9

Esq. 295.3 18 Esq. 20 157.1 175.9 333 174.2 195.5

Esq. 369.7

As it has already been established in scenario R301, Chapter 6.4.3., the final regulated firm flow in the Japo Reservoir resulted in 9.4 m3/s. As the firm flow (59%) increases due to the introduction of the Molloco reservoir, the power and firm energy are increased proportionally in Soro power plant, resulting in the following average values. Soro: 90.8 MW and 796 GWh/a Llatica: 79.7 MW and 699 GWh/a

In the Llatica power plant, the guaranteed power is slightly lower than the power installed for each variant due to the variation of the level, thus making the Japo reservoir fall. With the regulated firm flow of 9.4 m3/s, the percentage of firm energy for the first variant with a design flow of 10 m3/s reaches 98.9%. For the same variant, the plant factor results in 93.5%. With a design flow of 20 m3/s, the firm energy percentage and the plant factor are reduced to 83.3% and 55.1%, respectively. The variation of the power/capacity and energy against design flow for Phases I and II are compared in Illustration 5.10.

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Illustration 5.10: Power and energy against design flow, Phase I and II
Phase I: Power Etapa I: Potencia
250 200
Instalada (mxima) Installed (maximum) Firme (57(57 MW) Firm MW)

EPhase I: Energy tapa I: Energa


900
176

Annual energy (GWh) Energa Anual (GWh)

Promedia (continua) Average (continuous)

196

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 10 12 14 16 18


3

Potencia (MW) Power (MW)

150 100 50 0 10 97

136 117

156

Promedia Average Firme (502 GWh) Firm (502 GWh) No-firme Non-firm

12

14

16

18

20

20

Caudal Diseo (m 3/s) Design flow (m3/s)

Design flow (m /s) Caudal Diseo (m 3/s)

Etapa II: II: Power Phase Potencia


400
2000
Instalada (mxima) Installed (maximum) Promedia (continua) Average (continuous) Firme (171 MW) MW) Firm (171

Etapa II: II: Energy Phase Energa


370
1800

Annual energy (GWh) Energa Anual (GWh)

350

333

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 10 12 14 16 18 20


Promedia Average Firme (1495 GWh) Firm (1495 GWh) No-firme Non-firm

Potencia (M Power (MW)W)

30 0 25 0 20 0 150 10 185

295

259 222

12

14

16

18

20

Caudal Diseo (m 3/s) Design flow (m3/s)

Caudal Diseo (m 3/s) Design flow (m3/s)

5.5.3 Comparison of the increase of the energy values and the indication costs As it has been indicated in the previous charts, the energy value (equivalent index of the benefits) of each variant is calculated in terms of 1) firm and non-firm energy, and 2) energy in rush hours and non-rush hours. In order to evaluate and compare the results, indication costs were estimated for the power works including: civil components, dimensions determined by the design flow or the capacity installed (intake, tunnels, penstock and power house) and the costs of the electrical and mechanical equipment (turbines, generators and auxiliary equipment) and steel hydraulic structures. Given the direct costs, unexpected events and interest during the construction, all the annual costs of the power works were calculated together for every variant. In Illustration 5.11 the increase of the annual costs (M$US) is compared to the energy values (M$US) for the firm energy and the energy in rush hours. The most significant results of this analysis are: According to the estimation with firm energy, the costs grow faster than the benefits in accordance with the gradient of the adjusted straight line. The differential curve between the energy values and the costs has a slightly negative tendency from 12 m3/s. According to the estimation with energy in rush hours, the costs grow slower than the benefits in accordance with the gradient of the adjusted straight line. The differential curve between the energy values and the costs has a slightly positive tendency up to 18 m3/s.
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To conclude, it may be expected that the most adequate design flow is between 12 m3/s and 18 m3/s, or between 82% and 60% in terms of plant factors. In Chapter 5.8 the final design flow will be chosen considering the previous results and the characteristics and requirements of the generation system (Chapter 5.7). Illustration 5.11: Increase of the annual costs and energy values

Evaluacin por Energa Firme Evaluation by Firm Energy


60 55 50

V = 0.685 Qd + 46.346

Energy costs/values Costos / Valores Energticos

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
10 12 14

C = 0.8089 Qd + 7.1985
Energy value (firm+nF) Valor energa (Firme+nF) Firm energy value Valor energa Firme Difference (V Firme+nF Cost) Diferencia (Val to firm+nF - Costo) Costo indicativo (Obras works) ncia) Indication cost (power de pote Linear (Valor energa (Firme+nF)) Linear (energy value (firm+nF) Linear (Costo indicativo (power works)) Linear (indication cost (Obras de potencia))

16

18

20

Caudal Diseo (m 3 Design flow (m3/s) /s)

EvEvaluationporEnergy in Rush Hours aluacin by Energa de Punta


60 55 50

V = 1.0197 Qd + 31.387

Energy costs/values Costos / Valores Energticos

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 10 12 14

C = 0.8089 Qd + 7.1985
Energy value (rush+f rush) Valor energa (Punta+f.Punta) Non-rush hour energy Punta Valor energa Fuera de value Diferencia (Val to rush+fP-Costo) Difference (V Punta+fP Cost) Costo indicativo (Obras works) Indication cost (power de potenc ia) Linear (Costo indicativo (power works)) ncia)) Linear (indication cost (Obras de pote Linear (Valor energa (Punta+f.Punta)) Linear (energy value (rush+f. rush)

16

18
3 Diseo

20

Caudal (m 3 Design flow (m /s) /s)

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5.6

Comparison of the generation statistics obtained with the base case

The generation statistics for a design flow of 16.4 m3/s are compared in this section; the design flow was chosen in the previous study of the Chiquimo Association. The scenarios considered cover the following. E300 Phase I Reservoirs (NAMO/V useful) Power Plant E400 Phase II Reservoirs (NAMO/V useful) Machucocha (4661 m / 60 Mm3) Japo (4218 m / 60 Mm3) Soro Machucocha (4661 m / 60 Mm3) Molloco (4480 m / 150 Mm3) Japo (4218 m / 60 Mm3) Llatica, Soro Machucocha (4661 m / 60 Mm3) Molloco (4480 m / 150 Mm3) Japo (4224 m / 90.4 Mm3) Llatica, Soro Machucocha (4661 m / 60 Mm3) Molloco (4486 m / 216 Mm3) Japo (4224 m / 90.4 Mm3) Llatica, Soro

Power Plants E500 Phase II Reservoirs (NAMO/V useful) (Elevation + 6 m) Power Plants E600 Phase II Reservoirs (NAMO/V useful) (Elevation + 6 m) (Elevation + 6 m) Power Plants

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The results of the simulation for the respective scenarios are observed in Chart 5.13. Chart 5.13: Generation statistics with design flow of 16.4 m3/s
Power (MW) PP Central Potencia (MW) Inst. Aver. Firm Guar. Energy (GWh/a) Energa (GWh/a) Aver. Firm Firm Energy Value (M$/a) Firm VaEnergy Value (M$/a) lor energtico (M$/a) Valor energtico (M$/a) Firm Non-firm Total Rush N-rush Total N.R. (%) (%)

Inst. Prom. Firme Gar. Prom. Firme F.P.(%) (%)


Scenario E300 EscenarioE300 Phase Etapa I I

Firme No-firme Total 17.30 24.61 27.83 52.43 5.47 2.66 2.64 5.30

Punta 10.09 8.95 10.09 19.04

F-punta Total 10.62 13.84 15.31 29.15

Regulated firm flow: 5.9 m /s Caudal firme regulado: 5.9 m 3 /s

Soro

157.9

81.4

56.4 80.2 90.7

157.9 713.2 140.0 809.4 157.9 900.6

494.4 703.0 795.1 1498

51.6 64.4 65.0 64.7

69.3
3

22.77 27.27 30.47 57.73

20.71 22.79 25.40 48.19

Scenario E400 EscenarioE400

Phase Etapa II II

Regulated firm flow: 9.4 m /s Caudal firme regulado: 9.4 m 3 /s

Llatica 143.3 92.3 Soro 157.9 102.7 Esq. 301 195.0

86.9 88.3 87.6

170.9 297.9 1710


Phase Etapa II II

Scenario E500 EscenarioE500

Llatica 144.1 96.3 Soro 157.9 106.9 Esq. 302 203.2

NAMO elevation/volume of the presa Japo (+ 6m Elevo del NAMO / volumen de laJapo dam (+ 6 m) ) 3 Regulated firm flow: 10.5 m /s Caudal firme regulado: 10.5 m 3 /s 88.2 140.1 844.5 773.2 66.8 91.6 27.06 1.78 28.84 99.9 157.9 936.7 875.7 67.7 93.5 30.65 1.52 32.17

8.96 10.09 19.05

14.72 16.21 30.92

23.67 26.30 49.97

188.1 298.0 1781


Phase II Etapa II

1649

67.3

92.6

57.71

3.31

61.02

Scenario E600 Escenario E600

Llatica 144.1 98.4 Soro 157.9 109.1 Esq. 302 207.5

NAMO elevation/volume of the Molloco/Japo dams (+ 6 m) Elevo del NAMO / volumen de las presas Molloco / Japo (+ 6m) 3 Regulated firm flow: 10.7 m /s Caudal firme regulado: 10.7 m 3 /s 90.2 140.6 862.7 790.7 68.3 91.7 27.67 1.80 29.47 8.99 102.8 157.9 956.1 901.1 69.1 94.3 31.54 1.37 32.91 10.09

15.15 16.69 31.84

24.14 26.79 50.92

193.0 298.5 1819

1692

68.7

93.0

59.21

3.17

62.39

19.08

The results for Phase I (E300), with Machucocha and Japo Reservoirs and a regulated firm flow of 5.9 m3/s, indicate an annual average energy of 713 GWh, a percentage of firm energy of 69.3% and plant factor of 51.6%. With the introduction of the Molloco Reservoir in Phase II (E400), the energy generated in the Soro Power Plant increases in 901 GWh (26%), and the firm energy increases in 61%. For the complete scheme, the percentage of firm energy and the plant factor result in 87.6% and 64.7%, respectively. The generation statistics for this scheme (E400) may be compared to those of the previous study of the Chiquimo Association (replied in Chart 5.1), in terms of: Capacity installed Average energy Firm energy Plant factor (MW) (GWh/a) GWh/a) (%) Present 301 1710 1498 64.7 CHIQUIMO 310 1617 1583 60.0

The results of the scenario E600 with elevation of the NAMOs of the Molloco and Japo Reservoirs (increasing the regulated firm flow in Japo from 9.4 m3/s to 10.7 m3/s) indicate a rise/increase of the average and firm energy of the scheme up to 1819 and 1692 GWh (6.4% and 13.0%).

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Likewise, the percentage of firm energy and the plant factor rise proportionally by 93.0% and 68.7%, respectively. The economic advantage of the elevation of the reservoirs is expressed by a profit in the total energy value of 8.1%, according to the assessment with firm energy. According to the assessment with energy in rush hours, the profit is only given as energy in non-rush hour of 5.7%.

5.7

Characteristics of the electrical system

5.7.1 EGASA System (Electricity Generation Company), The electrical system of EGASA includes the hydroelectric power plants Charcani I to VI (176 MW), located over the Chili River, and the thermal plants of several types and capacities called: T. Vapor, T.G.-Ciclo Combinado, Sulzers, C.T. Mollendo. The water system of the Chili River includes the main dam Aguada Blanca and the dams El Frayle, El Pae, Pillones and Laguna del Indio. The natural performance of the basin of the Chili River is increasing due to the Pae-Sumbay diversion from the neighboring basin of the Colca River. There are plans to make use of the Bamputae River so as to derive an additional flow of approximately 1 m3/s. According to the data of water provided by EGASA, the average discharge of the Aguada Blanca dam results in 12.0 m3/s over the period 1972 to 2007 and a flow of 4.3 m3/s with persistence of 95%, representing a regulation degree of 36%. The characteristics of the water of the Chili River are similar regarding the annual and monthly variations of the Colca and Molloco Rivers. The annual and monthly energy productions are observed in Illustrations 5.12. and 5.13. In the period 1994 to 2007, the hydroelectric production represents 87% of the total production, out of which 75% is contributed by the main power plant Charcani V (3x45 MW with capacity of 8 m3/s per unit). Since year 2000, the hydroelectric production has ranged between 850 and 1050 GWh, except for year 2005 having an average plant factor of 60%. At the same time, the production of the thermal plants has been reduced considerably as of the interconnection of the original generation systems South and Central-North (through the SocabayaMantaro line) and the creation of the SEIN national interconnected system. In 2007, the thermal production only has 4%.

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Illustration 5.12: Annual production of the EGASA power plants 1990-2007

1400 1200
Hidroelctrica Total Total hydroelectric EGASA Total Total EGASA Charcani V V Charcani Total Total Trmica Thermal

Generation (GWh/a) Generacin (GWh/a)

1000 800 600 400 200 0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Ao Year

Illustration 5.13: Monthly average production of the EGASA power plants 1994-2007

100 90 80

Generacin (GWh Generation (GWh) )

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ene Jan Feb Mar Abr May Jun Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Thermal (13%) Trmica (13%) Hydroelectric Hidroelctrica (87%) Charcani (75% Hidro) Charcani V V (75% Hydro)

Jul Jul

Ago Set Oct Nov Dic Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Mes Month

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5.7.2 National Interconnected Electrical System (SEIN) Information on the national electrical system was collected from several sources, particularly in the Internet and the web sites of the national authorities, such as COESSINAC (Economic Operation Committee of the National Interconnected System), OSINERG (Supervisory Board for Investment in Energy) and MEM (Department of Energy and Mines). The most recent information on the characteristics and operation of the SEIN is included in the publication of COES-SINAC: Estadsticas de Operaciones (Operation Statistics) 2007. Charts 5.14 and 5.15 and Illustration 5.14, included in this publication, show the statistics and profiles of generation of the hydroelectric and thermal plants individually and jointly for year 2007. Chart 5.14: Annual generation statistics, SEIN year 2007
Central Energa Potencia Factor Generated Effective Plant Hydroelectric Hidroelctrica Genergy da Epower a Pfactor enera fectiv lanta Power Plant GWh MW % MW % GWh Machupicchu 749.7 85.8 99.8 Mantaro 5421 650.5 95.1 Moyopampa 531.7 64.7 93.8 Huampani 238.0 30.2 90.0 Restitucin 1694 215.4 89.8 Callahuanca 614.1 80.4 87.2 Santa Rosa 7.3 1 83.9 San Gaban 766.2 113.1 77.3 Cahua 290.9 43.1 77.1 Matucana 862.9 128.5 76.7 Arcata 33.2 5.1 74.3 Oroya-Pachach. 121.2 19.1 72.5 Caruaquero 573.1 95 68.9 Haunchor 118.1 19.6 68.8 Pariac 26.6 4.5 67.5 Yuncan 784.6 136.8 65.5 Caon del Pato 1487.4 263.5 64.4 Chimay 848.5 150.9 64.2 Malpaso 262.4 48 62.4 61.6 Charcani 948.0 175.8 Yaupi 592.4 110.2 61.4 Yanango 206.8 42.6 55.4 Gallito Ciego 176.3 38.1 52.8 Huinco 1141.6 247.3 52.7 Aricota 92.0 34.9 30.1 Total/Average Total / Promedio 18588 2804 75.7 Energa PEffective FPlant r otencia acto Generated energy power factor Generada Efectiva Planta GWh MW % MW % GWh TG Aguayta 1141.6 176.6 73.8 Ilo 2 TV1 840.1 141.8 67.6 Chilca (1) 1956.5 350.5 63.7 Malacas 637.2 130.7 55.7 TG Ventanilla GNCC8 2000.1 492.7 46.3 TG Santa Rosa WTG 300.2 123.3 27.8 GD Paita 6.7 3.7 20.8 Tumbes MAK1/2 27.7 17.3 18.3 Kalpa 279.8 176.8 18.1 GD Chiclayo Costa 37.9 24.4 17.7 Piura 26.0 18.4 16.1 TG Santa Rosa UTI 125.0 105.4 13.5 Yarinacocha 28.4 25 13.0 GD Sullana 9.5 8.5 12.7 TG Piura 26.4 24 12.6 Mollendo Miraflores 23.7 32 8.4 Chimbote 14.4 22.5 7.3 San Nicols 38.5 64.3 6.8 Ilo 1 40.1 97.4 4.7 Ilo Catcato 0.7 3.3 2.5 TG Trujillo 4.2 20.4 2.4 Taparachi 0.8 4.9 1.8 Chilina 6.1 43.2 1.6 Mollendo TG1 TG2 8.9 73.2 1.4 Bellavista 0.4 3.5 1.4 Dolorespata 0.7 11.5 0.7 Ilo TG 4.0 67.2 0.7 GD Pacasmayo (2) 0.4 17.7 0.2 Calana 0.2 25.5 0.1 Total/Average Total / Promedio 7,586 2,306 37.6 Central Thermal Power Trmica Plant

SEIN % Hydroelectric % Hidroelctrica

26,175 71.0

5,110 54.9

58.5

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Chart 5.15: Monthly generation statistics (GWh), SEIN year 2007


Mes Month Enero January February Febrero March Marzo April Abril Mayo May JuJune nio Julio July August Agosto September Setiembre October Octubre November Noviembre December Diciembre Total ao Total year %% MMaximum xima MMinimum nima Hidroelctrica Trmica Hydroelectric Thermal 1794 1602 1727 1711 1676 1431 1384 1388 1332 1457 1491 1595 18,588 68.2 1794 1332 439.6 459.7 596.4 481.3 614.8 791.6 913.1 903.5 896.3 902.4 843.1 824.6 8,666 31.8 913 440 Total
SEIN
Hydro Hidro %% 80.3 77.7 74.3 78.0 73.2 64.4 60.2 60.6 59.8 61.8 63.9 65.9

2234 2062 2323 2192 2291 2223 2297 2292 2228 2359 2334 2420 27,255 100 2420 2062

Illustration 5.14: Monthly production, SEIN year 2007

2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Trmica (31.8%) Thermal (31.8%) Hydroelectric (68.2%) Hidroelctrica (68.2%)

Generacin (GWh) Generation (GWh)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun

Jul Jul

Aug Ago

Sept Oct Set Oct

Dec Nov Dic Mes Month

Characteristics of the production year 2007 With a total effective capacity of 5100 MW, the hydroelectric power plants represent the 55%, while the hydroelectric energy generated reaches 71% of the 26,175 GWh. The monthly generation profiles clearly show the hydrologic variability during the year when the hydroelectric generation is about 80% in the rainy months of January April and it is reduced in the dry months of July October. In this period, the thermal generation reaches the maximum numbers.
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Ordered by plant factor (F.P. %) in Chart 5.14, the individual plants may be classified in groups, for instance in intervals of 25%: high, medium, low, depending mainly on the predetermined position and availability for the dispatch process according to the daily demand of the system. The applied capacity distribution in every 25% - plant factor interval is observed in Illustration 5.15. Within the SEIN it may be observed that half of the available hydroelectric capacity (1400 MW) is used exclusively in the high interval F.P. > 75% with an average value of 90%. In the mean interval between F.P. 75% and 50%, the rest of the hydroelectric capacity is found (except for one single plant) together with 4 thermal plants with a total capacity of 800 MW. In the intervals of F.P. < 50%, the rest of the thermal capacity available of 1500 MW is found. On average, the plant factor of all the hydroelectric plants is 76% compared to 38% for the thermal plants. The group of EGASA Charcani hydroelectric plants was operated in year 2007 and in other years in the mean interval with a plant factor with an average of 61.6%. Illustration 5.15: Distribution of capacity with plant factor

2000
65.3%

Potencia (MW) Power (MW)

1500

Centrales Trmicas Thermal power plants Centrales Hidroelctricas Hydroelectric power plants Thermal F.P. average Promedio F.P. Trmica Hydroelectric F.P. average Promedio F.P. Hidroelctrica

1000
90.3% 61.6%

500
0%

42.6%

9.1% 0% < 25%

0
> 75% 75% > 50%

30.1% 50% > 25%

Factor de planta (%) Plant factor (%)

Load curves and daily demand The load curve of the SEIN corresponding to the dispatch for the maximum demand on December 10, 2007 is shown in Illustration 5.16. The maximum demand of 3966 MW is located at 19:30 hours when the peak of the hydroelectric generation reaches 2200 MW. The minimum hydroelectric generation of 1300 MW is at 04:00 hours. The Diesel and residual type plants above the other thermal plants of gas and coal have also been used in the rush hours.

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Illustration 5.16: Dispatch for December 10, 2007


GRAPHIC No. 2.8 DISPATCH FOR THE DAY OF MAXIMUM DEMAND OF THE YEAR (DECEMBER 10, 2007)

Hour
Enersur Nat. Gas Kallpa Nat. Gas Hydro TV Coal Edegel Nat. Gas Eepsa Nat. Gas Termoselva Nat. Gas

Regarding the fuel change and consumption of the thermal plants, the dispatch for December 19, 2006 (Ref. Plan Referencial de Electricidad 2006-2015, MEM/DGE) is compared to the dispatch for March 26, 2008 (Ref. Estadstica Elctrica Marzo 2008, MEM/DGE) in Illustration 5.17.

Illustration 5.17: Dispatch for December 10, 2007


GENERATION DISPATCH FOR THE DAY OF MAXIMUM DEMAND OF THE YEAR (December 19, 2006)

Hours Hydroelectric Coal Natural Gas Residual and Diesel

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Generation dispatch by source of energy


DIESEL AND RESIDUAL: 1.2% COAL: 2.0%

HYDRO

Source:

Within this period, the consumption of natural gas rose significantly from 19.8% to 29%, and the consumption of coal, diesel and residual was also reduced at the same time. The increase of the demand of maximum power in 2006 with 3580 MW, in 2007 with 3966 MW and in 2008 with 4072 MW is of national interest. Marginal costs and bar rate The development of the marginal costs and bar rate for term 1993 to 2007 is contained in the COES-SINAC 2007 publication. The graphics of the monthly weighted values and rush hour and non-rush hour values are replied in Illustration 5.18. Considering the development over the last 5 years, it is assumed that the maximum and minimum values of the weighted bar rate were close to 35 and 25 $US/MWh, respectively. Likewise, the values of the bar rate for rush hours and non-rush hours also reached about 35 and 25 $US/MWh in average respectively over the last 5 years. The same numbers, that is in dollar cents units per kilowatt hour (3.5 and 2.5 US/kWh), have been applied as assessment rates in order to evaluate and compare the results of the alternative simulation scenarios.

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Illustration 5.18: Development of the marginal costs and bar rate of the SEIN

GRAPHIC No. 7.3 MONTHLY WEIGHTED MARGINAL COST AND BAR RATE - SEIN

WEIGHTED MARGINAL COST

WEIGHTED BAR RATE

MONTHS

GRAPHIC No. 7.4 MARGINAL COST AND BAR RATE IN RUSH HOURS AND NON-RUSH HOURS SEIN (*)

MONTHS

5.8

Selection of the design flow

The geographic location of the project in the southern area of the country means that the Molloco Project should operate together with the Mantaro-Socabaya transmission line so as to solve the increase of the demand of the region and to allow EGASA to increase its participation in the national electrical market.
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Since a detailed analysis of the expansion of the generation system was not prepared, the capacity installed of the Molloco hydroelectric scheme was selected taking into account the results of the analysis of variants and considering the characteristics of the plants and the configuration of the current SEIN system, as well as the future requirements. According to the previous analysis of the capacity variants (Chapter 5.5, Chart 5.12), it was determined that the value of the most appropriate design flow remained between 12 and 18 m3/s. In terms of capacity installed, the results indicate units in the range of 52.5 MW for Llatica with 12 m3/s up to 88 MW for Soro with 18 m3/s. For both power plants, the total capacities result in 222 MW and 333 MW with equivalent plant factors of 82% and 60% for the corresponding flows of 12 and 18 m3/s. Compared to the characteristics of the SEIN generation system, the variant with 12 m3/s is in the high group ordered by plant factor, while the variants verified with flow of 14 up to 18 m3/s are in the medium group with plant factors between 73% and 60%. With regard to the energy productions of year 2007 (Chart 5.14), the following hydroelectric and thermal plants are found and shown in Chart 6.16, with appearing capacities of the units and the Llatica and Soro group abovementioned, as well as plant factors in the same medium group.

Chart 5.16: Annual generation statistics, SEIN year 2007 medium group
Hydroelectric Centrales Power Plant

Hidroelctricas Caruaquero Yuncan Caon del Pato Chimay Charcani Yaupi Promedio Average

Energa Potencia Generated Effective energy power Generada Efectiva GWh /a MW W GWh M 573.1 95 784.6 136.8 1487 263.5 848.5 150.9 948.0 175.8 592.4 110.2

Fact Plant or factor a Plant % % 68.9 65.5 64.4 64.2 61.6 61.4 64.1 73.8 67.6 63.7 55.7 65.3

CThermal Power Plants entrales Trmicas TG Aguayta 1142 Ilo 2 TV1 840.1 Chilca (1) 1957 Malacas 637.2 Promedio Average

176.6 141.8 350.5 130.7

Regarding the future requirements of the generation system, the most recent information is in the document Plan Referencial de Electricidad (Referential Plan of Electricity) 20062015, prepared by MEM/DGE. Although the Molloco Project is not included in the plan, the other candidate projects include 14 hydroelectric power plants with capacities between 50 and 220 MW and 5 thermal plants with capacities between 135 MW and 520 MW. According to the information presented, the energy characteristics of the hydroelectric projects included in the several expansion plans are replied in Chart 5.17.

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Chart 5.17: Energy characteristics of the future hydroelectric candidates


Hydroelectric Centrales Power Plant

Hidroelctricas Tarucani La Virgen Santa Teresa Quitaracsa Olmos I San Gabn I Pucar Chevez Santa Rita Platanal Promedio Average

Energa Potencia Generated Effective energy power Generada Instalada GWh/a MW GWh/a MW 418 50 385 58 821 110 720 112 670 120 725 120 900 130 825 159 1000 174 1100 220

Facto Plant r factor a Plant % % 95.4 75.7 85.1 73.3 63.7 68.9 79.0 59.2 65.6 57.0 68.9

Taking into consideration what was said before about the similarity and consistency of the plant factors, as well as the capacities and statistics of the Molloco complex in Chart 5.13, it was decided to choose the most adequate design flow of 16.4 m3/s, as it was done in the previous feasibility study of the Chiquimo Association. 5.9 5.9.1 Detailed simulation of the selected scheme Scheme configuration

Since an elevation of 6 m of the Japo reservoir offers a considerable increase of regulation, and thus an increase of the firm energy of 10% over the base case, the elected scheme of reservoirs and hydroelectric reservoirs corresponds to scenario E500, as it was presented in Chapter 5.6 and in Chart 5.13. The respective plant factor of this configuration results in 67.3%. A table of content of the parameters of the scheme is presented in Chart 5.18.

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Chart 5.18: Parameters of the elected Molloco scheme (scenario E500)


Parameter Parmetro Design Diseo NAMO NAMI Volumenvolume Useful til Regulated firm flow Caudal firme regulado Regulated firm flow Average contribution Aporte promedio

Machucocha

m snm m snm 3 Mm m /s m /s 3 m /s
Power Plants Centrales
3 3

4661 4655.5 60 0.86 0.86 0.84 Etapa Phase II Soro 16.4 1138.4 1112.5 2 157.9 71.6 157.9 778.3 627.6 80.6 56.2 476.1 900.7

Embalse Reservoir Molloco 4480 4456 150 6.41 === 5.8

Japo 4224 4197 90 12.84 7.40 10.4


Phase Etapa I I Phase Etapa II II

Caudal firme regulado Parmetro Parameter Design Diseo


Design flow Caudal diseo Gross head Salto bruto Design gross head Salto neto diseo Units (Pelton) Unidades (Pelton)

Etapa II Phase II Llatica Soro 16.4 1031.5 1010.2 2 144.1 88.2 140.1 844.5 773.2 91.6 66.9 444.4 944.0 16.4 1138.4 1112.5 2 157.9 99.9 157.9 936.7 875.7 93.5 67.7 511.2 1041

Esquema Scheme Total 16.4 2170 2123 4 302.0 188.1 298.0 1781.2 1648.9 92.6 67.3 955.6 1985

Potencia instalada Firm power Potencia firme Guaranteed power Potencia garantizada Energa promedia Average energy Energa firme Firm energy
Plant factor Factor de planta Minimum energy (1992) Energa mnima (1992) Maximum energy (1973/86) Energa mxima (1973/86)

Installed power

m /s m m # MW MW MW GWh/a GWh/a % % GWh/a GWh/a

A group of graphics representing the annual and monthly characteristics of the operation of the reservoirs (Illustrations 5.19 - 5.21) and the hydroelectric power plants (Illustrations 5.22 5.24) are presented below. 5.9.2 Operation Profiles The regulation ability of the reservoirs is shown as monthly profiles in Illustration 5.19. The regulation degrees (firm/average flow) of the Laguna Machucocha and Japo Reservoirs in Phase I have values of 97.7 and 57.6 %. In Phase II, the regulation of the Japo Reservoir is increased in 81.8% with the introduction of the Molloco Reservoir, with a regulation degree of 90.5%. The surplus term in which the flow exceeds the plant capacity - 16.4 m3/s - goes from February to April.

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Illustration 5.19: Monthly profiles of contribution and discharge, Phases I and II

Embalse LagunaLake Reservoir MACHUCOCHA MACHUCOCHA


3.0

EJapo ReservoirEtapa I I mbalse JAPO Phase


45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ago Set Oct Nov Dic Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Aporte

Contribution/Discharge /s) 3/s) Aporte/Descarga (m 3 (m

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Descarga (Firme regulado: firm: m3/s) m3/s) Discharge (regulated 0.84 0.84

Contribution/Discharge 3/s)3/s) Aporte/Descarga (m (m

Aporte

Contribution

Descarga (Firme regulado:firm:m3/s) Discharge (regulated 7.4 7.4 m3/s)

Contribution

Average contribution: Aporte promedio: 0.86 m3/s0.86 m3/s

Average contribution: 12.8 m3/s Aporte promedio: 12.8 m3/s

Ene Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Abr May Jun

Jul Ago Set Oct Nov Dic Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

22

EmMolloco ReservoirEtapa II II balse M OLLOCO Phase


Contribution Aporte

Embalse JAPO Etapa II Japo Reservoir Phase II


40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ago Set Oct Nov Dic Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Aporte Contribution Discharge (regulated 10.4 10.4 Descarga (Firme regulado firm: m3/s) m3/s)

Contribution/Discharge3(m3/s) Aporte/Descarga (m /s)

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Contribution/Discharge (m3/s) Aporte/Descarga (m 3/s)

Discharge (regulated firm: 5.8 Descarga (firme regulado: 5.8 m3/s) m3/s) Average contribution: Aporte promedio: 6.4 m3/s 6.4 m3/s

Average contribution: 12.7 m3/s Aporte promedio: 12.7 m3/s

Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Set Oct Nov Dic Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

The duration curves in Illustration 5.20 show the increase of the regulation in the Japo Reservoir between Phase I and II from 7.4 to 10.4 m3/s, and the relation with the turbinated flow.

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Illustration 5.20: Monthly flow duration curves, Japo Reservoir, Phases I and II
Japo Reservoir Phase I I Embalse JAPO Etapa
50 45
Contribution/Discharge (m3/s) Aporte / descarga (m 3 /s)

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Aporte Contribution DeDischarge (regulated firm: 7.4 m3/s) s) scarga (Firme regulado: 7.4 m3/ Aporte promedio: 12.8 m3/s Average contribution: 12.8 m3/s Turbinated flow Caudal turbinado

Persistencia (%) Persistence (%)

Embalse JAPO Etapa Japo Reservoir Phase II II


50 45
Contribution/Discharge (m/s) Aporte / descarga (m 33/s)

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Aporte Contribution DeDischarge (regulated firm: 10.4 m3/s) s) scarga (Firme regulado: 10.4 m3/ Average contribution: 12.8 m3/s Aporte promedio: 12.8 m3/s Turbinated flow Caudal turbinado

Persistencia (%) Persistence (%)

In Illustration 5.21, the profiles of the annual operation indicate the critical periods and deficit years when the regulation does not reach the firm flow. If there is a useful volume of 60 Mm3, or twice the annual average contribution, Machucocha Lake may maintain the regulation almost continuously. The most critical years with the highest deficits are 1966, 1980, 1983 and 1992 in particular. Year 1992 was notoriously dry over great part of the Andean region of the country. In such years, the water level reached the NAMI, and the Molloco and Japo Reservoirs remained empty for some months.

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Illustration 5.21: Annual profiles of contribution and discharge, Phases I and II


Embalse Laguna MACHUCOCHA MACHUCOCHA Lake Reservoir
1.4
3 Contribution/Discharge (m/s) Aporte/Descarga (m 3 /s)

Descarga Discharge Regulacin Firme Firm regulation Nivel embalse Reservoir level

Dficit Deficit Aporte Contribution

4671 4669 4667

1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0


1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Nivel embalse Reservoir level

Firm: 0.84 m3/s Firme: 0.84 m3/s

4665 4663 4661 4659 4657 4655 4653 Ao Year

Embalse JAPO Etapa I I Japo Reservoir Phase


20 18

Descarga Discharge Regulacin Firme Firm regulation Nivel embalse Reservoir level

Dficit Deficit Aporte Contribution

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Reservoir level Nivel embalse

Firme: 7.4 m3/s Firm:

4236 4234 4232 4230 4228 4226 4224 4222 4220 4218 4216 4214 4212 4210 4208 4206

Aporte/Descarga (m 3/s) Contribution/Discharge (m3/s)

Ao Year

Embalse MOLLOCO Etapa II MOLLOCO Reservoir Phase II


10

Contribution/Discharge/s) 3/s) Aporte/Descarga (m 3 (m

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989

Descarga Discharge Regulacin Firme Firm regulation Nivel embalse Reservoir level

Dficit Deficit Aporte Contribution

4505 4500 4495

Firm: 5.8 m3/s Firme:5.8 m3/s

4490 4485

4475 Nivel embalse Reservoir level 4470 4465 4460 4455

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Ao Year

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Nivel (m snm) Level (masl)

4480

Nivel (m snm) Level (masl)

Nivel (m snm) Level (masl)

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Embalse JAPO Etapa II JAPO Reservoir Phase II


20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987

Aporte/Descarga (m (m3 Contribution/Discharge 3/s)/s)

Descarga Discharge Regulacin Firme Firm regulation Reservoir level Nivel embalse

Dficit Deficit Aporte Contribution

Firm: 5.8 m3/s Firme: 10.4m3/s

Reservoir level Nivel embalse

4236 4234 4232 4230 4228 4226 4224 4222 4220 4218 4216 4214 4212 4210 4208 4206

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Ao Year

Graphics of the operation of the hydroelectric power plants as duration curves of generated power, and profiles of generated energy are shown in Illustrations 5.22 and 5.23. The duration curves indicate a possible distribution of power generated during the day, in the rush hours (5) and in the non-rush hours (19). As the firm power, the guaranteed power (rush hours) is defined with a persistence of 95%.

Illustration 5.22: Duration curves of monthly power, Soro and Llatica power plants, Phases I and II

Central SORO Etapa I SORO Power Plant Phase I


180 160 140
Maximum Power Potencia mxim a 157.9 MW

Potencia (MW) Power (MW)

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 5

PoAveragepromed ia tencia power Potenciain rush hours (5 hours) Power punta (5 horas) Power fuera punta (19 horas) Potenciain non-rush hours (19 hours) PoFirm Power e tencia firm 71.6 MW

Persistence (%)(%) Persistencia


10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

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Nivel (m snm) Level (masl)

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LLATICA Power PlantEtapa IIII Central LLATICA Phase


180 160 140

PoMaximum Power tencia mxima 144.1 MW

Power (MW) Potencia (MW)

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Firm Power Potencia firme 88.2 MW

Potencia promedia Potenciain rush hours (5 hours) Power punta (5 horas) Power fuera punta (19 horas) Potenciain non-rush hours (19 hours)
Average power

Persistence (%) ) Persistencia (%


75 80 85 90 95 100

Central SORO Etapa II SORO Power Plant Phase II


180 160 140
Maximum Power Potencia mxima 157.9 MW

Po tencia (MW) Power (MW)

120 100 80 60 40 20

Firm firme PotenciaPower 99.9 MW

Potencia promedia Average power Potenciain rush hours (5 hours) Power punta (5 horas) Power fuera punta (19 horas) Potenciain non-rush hours (19 hours)

Persistence (%) ) Persistencia (%


0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

The monthly generation profiles Illustration 5.23 show the availability of the flow and the regulation of the reservoirs during the year. The generation of non-firm energy is mainly produced from February to April, and has 19% and 7% of the annual average energy for Phases I and II, respectively.

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Illustration 5.23: Monthly profiles of generation, Phases I and II


Central SORO Etapa I SORO Power Plant Phase I
200 180 160 Promedio Soro (778 GWh/a)

Soro Average (778 GWh/a)

Firm: 52.3 GWh/m Firme: 52.3 GWh/m

Energy (GWh/m) Energa (GWh/m)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun

Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Oct Nov Dic Jul Ago Set

Ce ntrales + SORO Power Plants EtapaII II LLATICA LLATICA + SORO Phase


200 180 160 Promedio Average (845 GWh/a) Llatica Llatica (845 GWh/a) Promedio Soro (937 GWh/a) Soro Average (937 GWh/a) Firm: 137 GWh/m Firme: 137 GWh/m

EEnergy (GWh/m) nerga (GWh/m)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Jan Ene

Feb Feb

Mar Mar

Apr Abr

May Jun May Jun

Jul Jul

Aug Ago

Sept Oct Set Oct

Nov Dic Nov Dec

Finally, the annual generation profiles for Phase I with Soro Power Plant and for scheme Phase II with Llatica and Soro power plants are shown in Illustration 5.24. In this graphic, it is observed that the critical years 1966, 1980, 1983 and 1992, and the corresponding reduction of generated energy occur separately, and that the generation is above the average of the series over large periods. The corresponding annual generation series are presented in Appendix H.

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Illustration 5.24: Annual profiles of generation, Phases I and II


Centrales+LLATICA + SORO Etapa II/IIII LLATICA SORO Power Plants Phase /
2000 1800 Promedio serie:1782 Series Average: 1782

Energa Energy (GWh) GeneratedGenerada (GWh)

1600 1400 1200 1000 800

Firm Total II: 1649 Total firme II: 1649

Total promedio II II Total Average Llatica promedio II II Llatica Average Soro promedio II II Soro Average Soro Average Soro promedio I I
Firm Soro II: 876 Soro firme II: 876

LlaticaLlatica II: 773 Firm firme II: 773 600 400


1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

oro firme I: 628 SFirm Soro: 628

Ao Year

5.9.3 Collection and diversion from the Palca River The water consolidation of the Molloco River involves collecting several tributary flows of the Palca River, affluent of the Apurimac River, and deriving the flow through a system of conducers to the basin of the Molloco River. The diversion flow will be discharged by the affluent Llocacocha and enter the Molloco River upstream of the Molloco dam site (Illustration 5.2). The area of total diversion drainage has 181 km2. Assuming the same performance of water than the performance of the sub-basin of the Machococha Lake (approximately 10 l/s-km2), the multiannual average flow results in 1.80 m3/s. With a maximum capacity of 4 m3/s, a series of collectible flow was calculated by applying the algorithm: QCm Where QCm QMm Qcap Ac m = Ac QMm Qcap

Collectible flow Flow (contribution) Machucocha Lake Diversion Capacity = 4 m3/s Relation of drainage areas (181km2 / 87 km2) Index of the month

The multiannual average of series QCm results in 1.39 m3/s. In this way, the flow collected increased the contribution (6.41 m3/s) of the Molloco Reservoir in 22% and the contribution of the Japo Reservoir (12.84 m3/s) in 11%.

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With the additional contributions, a new simulation of the scheme elected (called E700) resulted in a regulated firm flow in the Japo Reservoir of 11.5 m3/s, which represents an increase of 1.1 m3/s over the previous scenario E500. A comparison of the relative parameters is presented in Chart 5.19. Chart 5.19: Comparative parameters with (E700) and without (E500) the diversion of Palca River

Parmetro Parameter Caudalflow Design diseo Regulated firm regu Caudal firme flow lado Installed power Potencia instalada Firm power Potencia firme Energa energy dia Average prome Energa firme Firm energy
Plant factor Factor de planta Firm energy value Valor energtico firme

Escenario Scenario E500 E700 m /s 3 m /s MW MW GWh/a GWh/a % % M$/a


3

Incremento Increase [val] % 1.1 21.3 152.9 186.7 5.8 5.7 10.7 11.3 8.6 11.3 8.6 9.3

16.4 10.4 302.0 188.1 1781 1649 92.6 67.3 61.0

16.4 11.5 302.0 209.4 1934 1836 94.9 73.1 66.7

As it may be observed, the diversion of the Palca River increases favorably the regulated flow and the respective energy parameters in about 10%. According to the assessment rates for firm and non-firm energy previously established and applied, the energy value - or the equivalent annual benefit increases in 5.7 M$US.

5.10

Sensitivity Analysis

The simulation tests carried out and the results obtained are exclusively based on the data observed with interruptions, which were then prepared by the model HEC-4, over the historical period 1965 to 2007. In order to substantiate the results, it is convenient to consider potential hydrologic conditions to be performed in the future in case this situation is not given any more.

5.10.1 Change of the hydrologic system The changes of hydrologic systems observed and/or foreseen are related and frequently explained by the climatic change in general. In the recent years, the climatic change over a full range of geographic scales together with the foreseen consequences is known as an issue of global interest. There are several national and international entities involved in this topic in Peru.

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Some of the main concerns with regard to the impact of the climatic changes on the water resources in Peru and the Andean area are indicated below: Atmospheric warming in general increase of temperatures. Thaw and glacier backward motion. Increase of the precipitation and runoff variability. Changes in the temporary distribution (stationary) of precipitation and runoff. Greater density and frequency of extreme events (storms and floods). Climatic anomalies related to the El Nio Phenomenon (ENSO). The name of an outstanding research directing objectively the hydrology of the hydrographic basins used for the hydroelectric development is: Research study of the normal climatologic information used in the Operations Basins of the Generators of the COES-SINAC, Infoclima, October 2007. This study aimed at revising and improving the hydrologic data used for the forecast of flows considering the distorting effects of the climatic change. The necessity and feasibility of modifying the normal flows in the basins of the COES will be analyzed taking into consideration the technical standards of the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) and the climatic change. Among others, the main analysis involved tendency tests, homogeneity of variances and homogeneity of means applied on series of flows from different rivers and regions and for diverse historical periods. A summary of the analysis is presented in Chart 5.20. Chart 5.20: Tendency tests, homogeneity of variances and means

Basins

Cuencas

Data period Periodo

endencias TTendencies Epoca de Season of Rains Lluvias Low Water Estiaje +S +I +I -I -I -I -I +I -I -I +I +S -I -S -I +I -I -I -I -I +I +S

de datos
Chancay River Ro Chancay Jequetepeque River Ro Jequetepeque Santa River Ro Santa Pativilca River Ro Pativilca Rimac River Ro Rimac Mantaro River Ro Mantaro Tarma River Ro Tarma Tulumayo River Ro Tulumayo Paucartambo River Ro Paucartambo Vilcanota River Ro Vilcanota Aricota Lake Laguna de Aricota

Variance Homogeneidad Homogeneity de Varianzas Epoca de Season of Rains Lluvias Low Water Estiaje

Means Homogeneidad Homogeneity de Medias Epoca de Season of Rains Lluvias Low Water Estiaje

1957-2006 1936-2006 1965-2006 1965-2006 1965-2006 1965-2006 1965-2006 1965-2006 1965-2006 1958-2006 1965-2006

H D D H H H D D H H H

D D D D D H D H H D D H D I

D I H D I D D H H I H Homogeneas Homogeneous Different es Diferent Equal Iguales

H I D H I D D D D I D

+S -S +I -I

Creciente Significativo Significant flood Significant decrease Descreciente Significativo Insignificant Insig Creciente flood nificativo Insignificant decrease Descreciente Insignificativo

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The results clearly indicate that the changes if they exist may be very different among the diverse rivers and regions. Only in the series of the Santa River in the low water season there is a significant reduction of the flow. Obviously, a flow rise in the low water season is very favorable for the safety of the operation of a hydroelectric power plant. From the basins and several data verified, the Aricota Lake is the closest lake to the Molloco Project in the southern part of the country. The respective profiles of the analyzed series showing rising tendencies in both terms over the historical period 1965-2006, are replied in Illustration 5.25. Illustration 5.25: Flow profiles of Aricota Lake

ARICOTA LAKE JANUARY FEBRUARY - MARCH

FLOW

Aricota River

YEARS
Averages Tendency

Figure 11a. Aricota Lake Rainy Season

ARICOTA LAKE JUNE JULY - AUGUST

FLOW

Aricota River

YEARS
Averages Tendency

Figure 11b. Aricota Lake Low Water Season

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With regard to the series of precipitation and flow collected and prepared for this study, as it has been previously indicated in Chapter 4.2.2 and Illustrations 4.2 and 4.3, only in the series of weighted precipitation (as it was established from precipitation measured in three stations located in the neighboring sub-basin of the Andagua River) a decrease tendency was detected as well as a considerable difference in the precipitation measured within the partial periods throughout the registry. Since this precipitation series has been used as a base for generating the flows through the correlation-disaggregation model (Chapter 4.1.3), the respective contribution series were applied in the simulation model so as to verify the sensitivity and response of the scheme with this alternative data. 5.10.2 Simulation with alternative hydrologic series For the simulation of the Molloco system with the alternative contribution series (called scenario E800), the series generated by the correlation-disaggregation model calculated with a duration of 50% was selected. The main statistics of the corresponding contribution series are compared to those of the series prepared by model HEC-4 in Chart 5.21. Chart 5.21: Comparison of parameters of the contribution series
Dam/Series Serie (Mode Sitio de Presa / Site (Model) lo) Molloco

Parmetro

Parameters

Machucocha HEC-4 0.864 1.429 0.179 1.447 0.321 6.5 0.04 7.477
(73) (66)

Japo HEC-4 50%


(72) (92)

50% 0.798 1.463 0.189 1.596 0.384 8.04 0.04 10.025


(97) (92)

HEC-4 6.41 10.49 2.08 1.312 0.302 46.5 0.23 7.218


(84) (92)

50% 5.71 8.92 1.33 1.329 0.333 41.63 0.22 7.252


(72) (92)

Average Promedio Annual maximum (a) Mximo anual (a) Annual minimum (a) Mnimo anual (a) Range/Average Rango/Promedio Annual CV CV anual Monthly mensual Mximo maximum Monthly minimum Mnimo mensual Range/Average Rango/Promedio

12.84 20.72 4.84 1.237 0.303 81.8 0.39 6.340

11.15 42.27 2.07 3.605 0.431 101.3 0.30 9.058

(72) (92)

The results of the simulation for the contribution series generated by the models are compared in Chart 5.22. Chart 5.22: Comparison of results of the simulation, scenarios E500 / E800
Parmetro Parameter
Design dise Caudal flow o Regulated firm flow Caudal firme regulado Installed instalad Potenciapower a Firm power Potencia firme

Escenario / Serie (model) ) Scenario/Series (modelo E500 (HEC-4) m /s 3 m /s MW MW GWh/a GWh/a % % M$/a
3

InIncrease cremento [val] -2.4 -41.5 -292.0 -363.8 -11.0 -10.9 % -23.0 -22.1 -16.4 -22.1 -16.4 -17.9

E800 (50%) 16.4 8.0 302.0 146.6 1489 1285 86.3 56.3 50.1

16.4 10.4 302.0 188.1 1781 1649 92.6 67.3 61.0

Energa promedia Average energy Energa firme Firm energy


Plant factor Factor de planta Firm energy value Valor energtico firme

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As it may be observed, the contribution series generated by the correlation-disaggregation model are considerably more conservative in terms of the averages with values between 7% and 13% less, and the variance parameters (CV) and relative range, which seem to be especially elevated for the Japo series (Chart 6.21). The combination of these parameters makes the regulation of the flow in the reservoirs difficult; therefore, the values of production of average firm energy and the firm energy value are considerably reduced. Comparing the diverse contribution profiles of the Japo Reservoir which are traced as mobile means calculated over 3 consecutive years in Illustration 5.26 a different behavior is observed in which series 50% contains a critical sequence of lowest flows between 1978 and 1995. Moreover, while series 50% contains a tendency slightly decreasing, series HEC-4 shows an increasing tendency as that of the series of the Aricota Lake, Illustration 5.25. Illustration 5.26: Annual contribution profiles (mobile means), Japo Reservoir
JAPO Reservoir Embalse JAPO
22 20 18 16
3 Aporte (m 3/s) Contribution (m /s)

Serie HEC-4 HEC-4 Series Serie 50% 50% Series Tendencia LinearHEC-4 HEC-4 linear Tendency 50% Linear Tendency Tendencia linear 50%

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987

Q= 0.0308 t + 12.141

Q = -0.0173 t + 11.549

Year Ao
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

For evaluating and calculating the benefits of the Molloco Project, the energy parameters from series 50% are evidently less favorable. However, taking into consideration the comparison of statistics and trajectories among the other hydrologic series in the region, series HEC-4 seems to be reliable and representative.

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5.11

Conclusions and Recommendations

WATER DISPATCH According to the development phases I and II, the behavior of the water system of the Molloco River was analyzed in detail applying simulation methods. The analysis procedure was carried out in the following manner. 1. Verification of alternative operation levels (NAMO), useful volume and regulation capacity. 2. Verification of variants of design flow and capacity installed. 3. Comparison of the generation statistics obtained with the base case. 4. Analysis and documentation of the characteristics of the electrical system. 5. Detailed simulation of the elected configuration. 6. Sensitivity analysis. Since the energy benefits will be mainly performed through the generation of firm energy, it is essential to develop the regulation of the basin to the maximum and thus maximize the firm flow. With this aim, the alternative operation levels (NAMO) and the corresponding useful levels showed the possibilities and advantages of reducing and/or increasing the NAMOs of the three reservoirs, respectively. Similarly, the verification of capacity variants for design flows over the range 10m3/s to 20 m3/s showed the possible development level for the scheme of both power plants Llatica and Soro using the head of 2170 m and resulting in installed capacities between 185 MW and 370 MW. Taking into account the energy value of each variant in terms of the firm/non-firm energy and alternatively in terms of the energy in rush hours/non-rush hours, the most adequate capacity range was determined with plant factors between 60% and 80%. In order to establish the final value of the design flow, the characteristics of the electrical system was analyzed and documented taking into consideration the EGASA system and plants and the SEIN national system. According to the most recent energy production data for year 2007, the hydroelectric and thermal plants were classified in production groups according to the statistics of power, generated energy and plant factor. By comparing the statistics, there were many similarities and consistency regarding the installed capacities or powers and plant factors (%), resulting in the following current numbers: SEIN hydroelectric power plants (medium group): SEIN thermal power plants (medium group): EGASA hydroelectric power plants (Charcani I-VI) 64.1% 65.3% 61.5%

Future hydroelectric power plants (average of 10 projects) 68.9% (Candidates nominated in the Plan Referencial de Electricidad (Referential Plan of Electricity) 2006-2015, MEM/DGE)
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16.4 m3/s were selected for the design flow of the Molloco scheme with a plant factor of 67.3%. According to the final configuration of the scheme of the heads of the dams (Machucocha, Molloco, Japo) and useful volumes, the regulated firm flow resulted in 10.4 m3/s with the following energy parameters. Parameter PP: Llatica 144.1 88.2 140.1 844.5 773.2 Soro 157.6 99.9 157.9 936.7 957.7 Scheme 302.0 188.1 298.0 1781 1649

Capacity installed (maximum power of the MW power plant) Firm power MW Guaranteed power in rush hours (5) MW Annual average energy GWh Annual firm energy GWh

In order to reinforce the usable water resource, the diversion of the additional flow from the Palca River affluent from the neighboring basin of the Apurimac River was considered. The average contribution entering the basin of the Molloco River was calculated from a collection area of 181 km2 and conduction capacity of 4 m3/s. The simulation of the scheme with the derived contribution increased the regulated firm flow of 1.1 m3/s and the production of average and firm energy in 10%. In monetary terms, the energy value of the project I increased in 5.7 M$US per year. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out by quantification of possible changes of the hydrologic system and by simulation using alternatives of contribution series. The final result of the water dispatch indicates that the Molloco scheme with the three reservoirs regulates the flow appropriately with a high degree of firm energy of 93% of the average energy generated per year. With the design flow of 16.4 m3/s and plant factor of 67%, the project may be incorporated into the national generation system and be operated together with the other power plants of similar capacity. For EGASA and the southern area, the project offers the following interest points and advantages, among others: The hydroelectric park is consolidated. EGASA is allowed to increase its participation in the domestic market. The dependence to import additional energy through the transmission line by connecting the southern area with the central-northern area is minimized. Regarding the recent study of evaluation of the climatological variables objectively performed for the basins already used for hydroelectricity (COES-SINAC) it has been recommended to extend the sensitivity analysis with an investigation of the potential climatic changes and modifications in the past and future flow.

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Such research should consider the historical climatological and hydrologic information based on a vast region around this area of interest including the future areas of interest and the basin that have already been used (Cola and Chili Rivers) for the existing water system of EGASA. The implications of the energy productions will be evaluated by a detailed simulation of the existing, planned and future system taking into consideration the possible changes identified.

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