Afghanistan Weekly War Update: Persistent Cross-Border Tensions With Pakistan

July 12, 2011 | 1152 GMT

Porous Borders
Cross-border fighting between militants and security forces along the Pakistani-Afghan border prompted a Military Border Working Group meeting July 7, a group comprised of representatives from Pakistani, Afghan and U.S. military forces. In an effort to ease tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan and increase control of the porous border, the Pakistani army proposed the creation of a hotline between Pakistani and Afghan armed forces that would serve as the single point of contact between the forces. Additionally, regular meetings between local commanders and local tribal leaders on either side of the border were proposed. At the meeting in Peshawar, the Military Border Working Group focused on accusations from the Afghan presidential palace. Kabul has said that Pakistani forces have fired more than 700 artillery shells in the Afghan provinces of Kunar, Nuristan, Paktia, Khost and Nangarhar. Pakistan continues to deny shooting such artillery, which Afghanistan claims has caused dozens of civilian deaths and the displacement of more than 700 families. Most of the alleged shelling from Pakistan has focused on Kunar, particularly the districts of Khas Kunar, Dangam, Nari and Sarkani, the same areas from which the most recent incursions across the border into Upper Dir, Bajaur and Mohmand, Pakistan, appear to have been launched from.

While cross-border attacks between security forces and militants on either side of the AfghanPakistani border is not a recent phenomenon, the frequency and scale of recent border skirmishes and the context of Pakistani military efforts along the border have brought the issue back to the fore. STRATFOR sources have said that militants crossing the Afghan border and attacking Pakistani border posts are Pakistani militants who fled Pakistan during the 2009 operation in the Malakand Division. Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leaders like Mullah Fazlullah, Maulvi Faqir Mohammad and Wali Mohammad (aka Umar Farooq) reorganized themselves on the eastern Afghan border with their followers from Pakistan and recruited new followers in Afghanistan. By attacking the Upper Dir district and Bajaur and Mohmand agencies in Pakistan, these leaders hope to reclaim territories they once controlled. Taking advantage of the limited foreign presence and the Afghan security forces limited capabilities along this stretch of the border, militants have intensified attacks on villages and police checkpoints in Pakistan.

Two-Way Cross-Border Attacks

On July 7, Jamaluddin Badr, the governor of Afghanistans Nuristan province, complained about the lack of security on his provinces 70-kilometer (about 43.5-mile) border with Pakistan. Militants from Pakistan attacked Nuristans Barg-e-Matal and Kamdesh districts May 3 and July 5, respectively. These instances were a reversal of attacks typically seen throughout the year in that the militants attacked from Pakistan rather than into Pakistan. Militants crossing from Afghanistan and clashing with Pakistani forces, and Pakistani forces alleged responses of firing rockets and mortar shells into militant havens on the eastern Afghan border have formed the largest portion of cross-border violence this year.

Fazlullah, who fled the Malakand Division in Pakistan with 100-200 militants to allegedly occupy a safe haven in Afghanistans Kunar province, is reportedly behind the attacks on the Upper Dir district (one of the four districts in the Malakand Division). Upper Dir was attacked June 1 and July 6. Pakistani officials reported that the June 1 attack involved about 500 militants, but the Taliban who claimed responsibility said that 40-50 militants carried out the attack. It serves the Talibans interest to downplay the number of militants involved as much as it serves the Pakistani forces interests to exaggerate the number of attackers, as each side wants to appear strong. The June 1 attack resulted in six days of sustained fighting between militants and Pakistani forces. Similarly, according to STRATFOR sources, Wali Mohammad and Maulvi Faqir Mohammad are behind attacks occurring in their former territories in Pakistan. The two fled from Bajaur and Mohmand, respectively.

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan Activities

Reports from July 7 reveal that Maulvi Faqir Mohammad has resurfaced on the Taliban FM radio station after a year s absence. Mohammad fled from Pakistan allegedly to Kunar about a year ago after operations in his home region of Bajaur. Mohammads radio talk show involves a daily sermon lasting more than two hours encouraging his supporters to conduct holy war in the name of Islam against infidels, warning Muslims of aligning with the Pakistani government. For many years, Fazlullah dominated the seminars on the Taliban FM radio station, earning him the nickname of Mullah Radio. Reports from STRATFOR sources indicate that Mohammad allegedly has aligned himself with Fazlullahs Tehrik-i-Taliban Swat and moved away from the main TTP led by Hakeemullah Mehsud. This defection follows that of Fazal Saeed Haqqani, who split from the main TTP group to form his own organization called Tehrik-i-Taliban Islami. However, Mohammad and Haqqanis stated agendas differ, highlighting the motivations of the various factions within the TTP. While Mohammad has encouraged attacks against the Pakistani government, Haqqani specifically encouraged attacks on U.S. forces. Mohammads resumption of broadcasts after finding refuge in Kunar is another indication of how porous the Afghan-Pakistani border is and how the area continues to be a haven for militants from the various Taliban, al Qaeda and other groups that move across the rugged, isolated terrain of the border. Despite the announcement of an increased Afghan army presence on the border, the shift in war toward the east and Pakistani forces offensive in the Kurram agency and airstrikes in Mohmand, the security situation on the border is unlikely to change. With the United States decreasing its troops in Afghanistan and handing off security control to the Afghan security forces, the border situation is actually likely to worsen. It will be interesting to follow the drawdown over the coming months, particularly if reports of TTP defections increase and the militant organization fractures further.

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