Journal of Coastal Research

SI 56

1159-1163

ICS2009 (Proceedings)

Portugal

ISSN 0749-0258

Indicators for the Assessment of Physical Carrying Capacity in Coastal Tourist Destinations
M. Tejada, G.C. Malvrez and F. Navas
Area of Physical Geography University Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla. Spain mtejtej@upo.es
ABSTRACT

TEJADA, M; MALVAREZ, G.C. and NAVAS, F., 2009. Indicators for the assessment of physical carrying capacity in coastal tourist destinations. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 56 (Proceedings of the 10th International Coastal Symposium), pg pg. Lisbon, Portugal, ISBN The socioeconomic importance of coastal tourism, combined with the general overcrowding of the spaces where tourist activities and associated infrastructures concentrate, are two realities that coastal area policy makers and managers have to face. Decision making should be backed up and strengthened taking into consideration the concept of carrying capacity. Various types of carrying capacity can be measured in the context of coastal tourist destinations (i.e. physical, economic, social, perceptive, etc). This study focuses on the concept of physical carrying capacity. The methodology used has been based in the development of a set of indicators of different nature, such as beach stability, coastal morphodynamics, land uses and land use changes, urban sprawl, beach quality, and landscape richness. The indicators were chosen carefully and built using spatial analysis techniques for the geomorphological and socio economic factors. The nature of such indicators strengthens the sustainability of the method allowing a repository data structure and its assimilation into a Geographical Information System for subsequent analyses. The methodology and analysis based on the set of indicators for the assessment of physical carrying capacity were tested in the Axarqua, on the andalusian eastern Costa del Sol, Spain. Tabulated and cartographic results are introduced in the present study. ADITIONAL INDEX WORDS, Environmental Indicators, Axarqua, Costa del Sol. virtually, has provided the ground for ignoring the real limitations of the physical environment; sometimes directly related to natural resources and some times just because the extremely dynamic nature of the coastal fringe it induces a negative scenario for land management due to high costs of maintenance and or protection (PEREIRA da SILVA, 2002; POLETTE and RAUCCI, 2003). Following TRUMBIC (2003), carrying capacity may be defined as an indicator to measure changes as well as an alert system to envisage problems resulting from land occupation. This approach implies that the view on measurements has to include some prospective nature so that assessment can be performed based on the trends that can be observed not only in socioeconomic development but also physical aptitude of the receiving environment.

INTRODUCTION
Spatial and coastal tourism planning commonly use the concept and tools provided by carrying capacity assessments which has been defined as the maximum number of people that may visit a tourist destination at the same time, without causing destruction of the physical, economic and socio-cultural environment and an unacceptable decrease in the quality of visitors satisfaction (PAP/RAC, 1997). Sectoral coastal activities produce combined environmental impacts resulting in marine pollution, air pollution, loss of marine resources, loss of natural land resources and land degradation, destruction of historic settlements and architectural heritage, loss of public access to the coast, and noise and congestion (TRUMBIC, 2003). The assessment of carrying capacity is, however, constrained to the compilation of measurable factors. In the case of physical carrying capacity the measures are commonly the number of visitors or users that, at a given time, a physical environment can support (as in space available). This can be interpreted considering that the key factor is the number of visitors, since space available is on the one hand fixed (in natural conditions) or expandable through accommodating infrastructure or even land reclaiming in extreme cases. For instance, at the base of some cost benefit analyses for beach nourishment projects the augmentation of recreational space by widening the beach has been used to argue increased tax revenue. This view, focused on number of visitors

Study area.
The Axarqua, in southern Spain, lies along the andalusian Mediterranean coast (Figure 1) and is a natural continuation to the world renowned Costa del Sol resort in the Province of Malaga. The overall section of coast has been the object of significant research but it has been studied mostly on a project scale basis rather than on a regional scale. This is related to the abundance of development plans that have been lead by municipalities or national coastal protection initiatives rather than a comprehensive spatial plan for the area. Only now (2007-2008) subregional territorial planning is approved for the area with two plans

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METHODS
A total of six indicators were analysed in the framework of the DPSIR types (VENTURELLI and GALLI, 2006; SVARSTAD et al., 2008). For all of them a description was detailed through a fact sheet, including the measured variables, the information source, the method used for development, the thresholds established with regard a maximum capacity as well as temporal and spatial scales (EEA, 2005). The indicators are calculated combining the relevant variables individually. The selected indicators are: (i). Land use change (ii). Urban sprawl in the first kilometre of coastal fringe (iii). Landscape richness (iv). Beach quality (v). Shoreline stability (vi). Beach morphodynamics Indicators (i) and (ii) were calculated using input data from the European Environmental Agencys Corine Land Cover for 1999 and 2003. The identification of land use transects, maps of land use and change, were developed from direct photo interpretation using the available ortho-imagery, and to locate and calculate coastal land use change the method follows that described in TEJADA et al. (2007). Indicator (iii) is generated using the 2005 Landscape Map of Andalusia produced by the Regional Ministry for the Environment and implementing Shannons landscape diversity index (CHENG and JAN, 2000). Indicator (iv) is a synthetic indicator which combines five elements of bathing quality variables such as water quality, safety, rubbish management, etc, following MICALLEF and WILLIAMS (2004).Data was collected directly in field visits as well as secondary sets from the andalusian Regional Ministry of Health (responsible for bathing water quality). As for indicator (v) decadal temporal scale is interpreted in relation to shoreline position, as a reflection of trends in erosion and/or accretion. The method builds on that presented by THIELER et al. (2003), in which a sequence of shorelines photointerpreted from satellite imagery and aerial photographs are entered in a GIS to develop spatial analyses and rates of erosion and accretion at 200 metre intervals providing a number of rates that are then mapped onto a standard shoreline. Finally, a complex morphodynamics indicator (vi) is developed taking as input topographic variables, such as nearshore bathymetry integrated with emerged beach surface; and nearshore hydrodynamic parameters as calculated by wave shoaling simulations. The numerical computer model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) works with a series of real data input (bathymetry and topography of the study area, wind speed/direction and wave direction, period and significant height) and provide calculations of wave direction and energy, refraction angles (i.e. angle which the waves approach the coastline), wave induced currents and bottom orbital velocities. Further both morphological and hydrodynamical variables are integrated for the surf zone and the surf scaling parameter calculated according to GUZA and INMAN (1975). Outputs of the morphodynamic parameters are mapped at 200 metre intervals and projected on the normalised shoreline.

Figure 1. Location map and study area. The Axarqua, on the eastern Costa del Sol, southern Spain. covering the western and the eastern Costa del Sol respectively. The Axarqua occupies the municipalities of Rincn de la Victoria, Vlez-Mlaga, Algarrobo, Torrox and Nerja and was selected as site to implement the new method for calculating carrying capacity. The physical setting of the Costa del Sol is characterised by low energy wave dominated beaches (MCDOWELL et a., 1993). Tidal range is small (<20cm average astronomical tidal range) and the mean significant wave height is l.0 m. with a mean period of 5.0 seconds producing a coast dominated by high frequency waves. The average directional components of the dominant wind waves are E to W and W to E that generates intense surf zone longshore drift and active cross shore sediment transport in exposed areas. The effective fetch is limited to an average 500 km. and only rarely do swell waves filter from the Atlantic Ocean. The morphology of the inner shelf is steep and narrow. Oceanic depths are reached within two kilometres from the coast in some sections. This results in a concentration of wave action on a narrow fringe of steep coastal shelf, with predominantly intermediate to reflective beaches. Sediment supply is mainly reworked fluvial sands and supply is episodic and concentrated in time around seasonal heavy rainfall. The Costa del Sol developed significantly during the 1950s and 1960s due to the demand for high quality holidays. This led to the combined development of accommodation, infrastructure and leisure facilities, such as golf courses and marinas. In general, significant development has occurred over the past 20 years. The fashionability of these areas and the growth of the middle class in Europe and abroad have boosted this development. As a result, rapid growth has occurred. This development sprawls to the south and southeastern Mediterranean, creating a 'Med wall' with 'more than 50 % dominance of concrete along the coast' (UNEP/EEA, 2005). In the last 10 years, the Mediterranean urban tourism model has been mirrored in many other coastal areas in Europe.

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Indicator for the assessment of physical carrying capacity in coastal tourist destination.

Figure 2. Matrix showing cause/effect relationships between indicators and schematic representation of indicators dependence. urbanisation (in comparative terms with other Mediterranean areas) and the semi arid environments where some exotic shrubs thrive. This however is not an indicator that constrains other but rather is influenced by the physical set up and land use changes, which tend to affect negatively the landscape elements. In general 17 of the 26 catalogued elements in Andalusia are represented in this coastal fringe. Of the beaches in the study area 71 % are designated 4 stars (out of 5) for the beach quality indicator. This indicator is subjected to the others since major changes in urban sprawl or physical settings may translate immediately in a decrease in perceived quality (or even measured water quality). Therefore, four of the six indicators are dependant on the other two: indicator (v) and (vi) (beach stability and beach morphodynamics). The stability of the coastline, as measured from spatial analyses of coastline positions over time, shows that up to 65% of the study area can be classified as stable (Figure 3). This is as well as a result of natural balance between erosion and accretion is the result in some instances of shoreline protection projects. Such are the cases in the most developed resorts in Vlez-Mlaga, Rincon de la Victoria or Nerja (see Figure 1) where sea walls and recently beach nourishment schemes are in place. In terms of morphodynamic beach states, according to standard classifications, Axarqua beaches are mainly in the Intermediate to Reflective domains. This implies that sediment mobility is high and thus management complex. Shoreline evolves responding severely to high energy events (storms) as well as sediment starvation. Indicator (vi) illustrates that reflective beaches in the area may induce an erosive trends because these are not fully reflective (which should be more stable, although receiving high energy inputs) but rather tend to transitional modes towards Intermediate. These beaches, better represented around the deltas of Torrox and Vlez, are highly dynamic. BACKSTROM et al. (2008) showed how storms may produce significant shelf adjustment that would transfer to the emerged beach morphodynamics.

Normalisation. Each indicator is produced in an independent

scale (reflecting the intrinsic measure or units). From that, each indicator get a scaled assessment of the desirability of the measure in the context of carrying capacity. Indicators are adjusted to a scale between 0 and 2, where 0 is undesired and 2 is desired; intermediate values are taken as 1 (HUDSON, 1992; CIRELLA et al., 2007). Next a process of weighting is applied to facilitate a final compilation of indicators following the heuristic expert assessment method (MAVROULIDOU et al., 2004). This method uses a diagonal matrix which provides a decision making process to establish the dependence of one indicator with the others and can be mapped using a GIS. Adding the rows and columns and expressing the percentages in the matrix the weight can be calculated. Once weights are assigned and variables are normalised in the scale 0 to 2 mentioned above, indicators are multiplied by the weight factor providing an interactive matrix (Figure 2).

RESULTS
The Axarqua has been at the periphery from the major and irreversible artificialisation processes that have affected the neighbouring western Costa del Sol. Land use changes are driven by, for instance, adaptations to new techniques in agriculture that have resulted in the development of new infrastructure. Whilst urban land has increased overall, the rates of urban sprawl associated with residential areas are less acute than those of the rest of the Malaga province; in fact a slight decrease is registered in relation to zoned residential urban land (13,3% in 1999 and 10,88 in 2003). However, against the 55% of the sprawl measured in Malaga province, the Axarqua in average showed 6.8% of increased planned urban land in the first kilometre from the coastline for the studied period. The indicator for urban sprawl is affected greatly by other indicators such as morphodynamics or the indicator for beach stability. Any changes in the more physical indicators -such as (v) and (vi)- represents a limiting factor, naturally, to indicator (ii). In terms of landscape variability -indicator (iii)-, the Axarqua is dominated by a rich variety of elements fundamentally based on the significant relieves of the Sierra Tejeda, the limited sprawl of

DISCUSION
Research discussed in this paper should be contextualised both in the methodological and in the historical evolution of coastal

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Tejada, Malvrez and Navas

Figure 3. Representation of indicator (v) Shoreline Stability. management and policy development that affected and will affect this and other potentially highly developed coasts. Although the balance between environmental quality and economic efficiency was improved after the planning laissez faire epoch in booming Spain of the 60s and 70s it must be recognised that continued urban development of the coast up to the very limits of the shoreline is, in any practical sense, difficult to tackle effectively. Most construction during the development era took place perfectly legally on land that was designated urbanizable (or re-zoned as such by municipalities compliant to developers wishes). The Ley de Costas of 1988 (Shores Act) was unable to act retrospectively in those circumstances. However, it is of greater concern from a forward-looking perspective, that almost unrestricted development could continue to occur, using the simple measure of the redrawing of the urban plan. Where economic interests persist in taking precedence, plans submitted to the regional government for final approval are unlikely to be turned down unless the territory has been declared Natural Park or other protective environmental designation. At present such protected land is scarce on the Mediterranean coast of southern Spain if compared with the Atlantic faade. New approaches are under development given the limitations of the original concepts for assessment of coastal carrying capacity. Some authors have indicated the usefulness of concepts such as sensitivity, vulnerability or stress as a conceptual baseline, some have seen in the resilience a better approach since the intrinsic value of variability is not evaluated as a positive or negative attribute (as it would be in case of risk or vulnerability) but rather would measure or characterise the trend of the variable or indicator to achieve a point of no return in its evolution (TEJADA, 2005). Some authors are using these approaches to establish qualitative assessments on highly developed coasts in the world (WILLIAMS and LEMCKERT, 2007) building on well established vision on environmental indicator concepts like the DPSIR framework combined with functions to indicate desirable and comparable thresholds (WALKER et al., 2004; ADGER et al., 2005; VENTURELLI and GALLI, 2006). In this article the method constructed the indicators and weighted the ranked values given for combining those including multicriteria analyses and database construction to enable a GIS spatial analysis and cartography.

CONCLUSIONS
The real alternatives to promote better decision making (other than restrictive planning, attempted in the 1980s) is to develop tools to calculate the real capacity of the receiving environment, its natural resources and population and infrastructures. An undeniable dependence still exists from the assessment of experts who qualify most of the results yielded by the more quantitative methods. The weighting and construction of the indicator matrix is still largely dependant on judgement and potential perception. It is assumed that management tools, however, must rely on a combination of methods that can provide at least some basis for informed and rational decision making. Otherwise, criteria are based only on local politician interests and/or economically bias decisions that are mostly focussed on short term benefits. This policy has been normal practice in areas such as Axarqua and hence any proposal taken into account some scientific assessment should be highly regarded.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study is part of the Project I+D+i (SEJ2005-0466) Evaluacin de la capacidad de carga en destinos tursticos del Mediterrneo a travs de indicdores, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology.

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