Statistics and Probability

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Posing and Formulating Questions..2 Representation of Data6 Interpretation and Evaluation of Data..11 Student Designed Data Collection and Analysis.16 Probability and Games..19 Computation of Probability..24 Other Data Collection Ideas.30

Student Pages.33

Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

Posing and Formulating Questions

Mathematical Focus
8 Formulation of research questions 8 Data collection techniques 8 Sources of bias in research design and data collection
In this activity, students brainstorm questions that they might want to ask about the information in the movie section of a newspaper. Each student then picks one question that they find particularly interesting (or one of the questions provided as an example) to investigate. During and after collecting data to research this question, students discuss concepts related to data collection and question formulation. The concepts include the different types of data that can be collected, sources of bias, and how to gather data to answer a particular question.

Preparation and Materials

8 A movie page from the newspaper or Student Page 1: The Movies
A sample movie section of a newspaper is provided in Student Page 1: The Movies for use in this activity, but you could also use the movie section from your local paper or another source of data, depending on what is available.

Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

Looking at the Information Source (The Movie Pages)

1. Examine the information in the movie section of a newspaper.
Ask students:

What kind of information could you get from this page? How else could the information on this page be presented? What do you wonder about when you look over the information on this page?

2. Generate a list of 5-10 questions that you might want to research about the data shown in the movie section.
The questions should be ones that students can answer by looking at the information on the movie page. The movie page may provide information about movie times, movie theatres, towns, theatre qualities, movies being played, movie prices, number of screens, and much more. Students can ask questions about any of these pieces of information, or about the relationship between categories. A list of sample questions is included below. At which theatres are there multiple screens showing the same movie? Which theatres would I go to if I wanted to see a particular movie after 6 P.M.? What if I wanted to see it before 6 P.M.? How many movies are showing at 4:30 P.M. in all the theatres? What is the most popular time for movies to start? When do most of the PG-rated movies play? Do most handicapped accessible theatres have four or more screens? What is the average movie admission price for theatres where prices are listed? What is the range of movie admission prices that are listed? What is the latest time that a movie begins? What is the earliest time? Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

How many of each type of theatre are there (i.e. Loews, General Cinemas, etc.)? Compare the Loews Theatres and the Showcase Theatres. How many screens are there per theatre? How many different movies are showing per theatre? How many DOL, DIG, and DSS theatres does each chain have? How many handicapped accessible theatres does each chain have? How many theatres are there in each town? How many different movies can you see in each town? What are the most popular movies? Compare the different movie theatres in a particular town. How many matinees show in each?

Designing the Experiment

1. Explain how you might go about answering the question, What are the most popular movies?
Ask students how they can convince you that they have found the correct answer to the question. Encourage students to consider surveying people, but also have them think about how they could answer the question just by looking in the movie section. Ask students to predict which movie will seem to be the most popular movie if they determine the answer based only on the information in the movie pages.

2. Brainstorm what factors that are not related to the popularity of the movie could influence the data you collect from the Movie Section about the most popular movies.
Students should make a list of possible sources of bias in their data collection. Give students the following example: If they count the number of times that a movie is showing to see how popular it is, the length of each movie could affect their data. If students are having trouble coming up with other potential sources of bias, ask questions such as:

Would the release date of a movie affect your opinion of how popular the movie must be? Does this factor get considered in your type of data collection? Are the same audiences watching the PG, the PG-13, and the R movies? Could there be a different most popular movie for each of these categories?
Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

3. Decide if there are ways to account for any of the sources of bias while collecting data.
For example, they could collect separate data for PG, PG-13, and R movies if they thought these categories should be separated out.

Collecting Data
1. Decide how you will record the data you need to find the most popular movies.
Ask questions such as:

What kind of information will you need to answer this question? As you look through the Movie Section, on what parts will you need to focus? How will you record the information that you gather?

2. Make predictions about what you will find when you collect data about the most popular movies.
Ask questions such as:

What do you predict you will learn from the data? Why? Can you think of anything else you might learn by collecting this data?

3. Collect data from the movie section and record it to try to answer the question about which movies are most popular.
Students will probably want to make some sort of list or tally sheet to record what they learn from the Movie Section. After a while, ask students if they want to revise their predictions about their research. Ask students to explain any changes.

Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

Representations of Data
Mathematical Focus
8 Data representation 8 Scale 8 Graphical Representations (especially bar graphs, scatter plots,
circle graphs, and box plots) In this activity, students discuss different types of graphs and charts that can be used to represent data and choose a way to represent the data they collected during Activity 1. The discussion includes such topics as which graphs are more appropriate for which types of data, what scale to use, and how this data should best be represented.

Preparation and Materials

8 Student Page 2, 3, and 4: Graphs 8 Student Page 5: Data Cards
The activities in this section are designed for students who are already comfortable with data representation in tables, line plots, bar graphs, and line graphs. If students need more work with these types of data representation, you may want to work through some of the Statistics and Probability, Grades 35 activities before starting on these activities. There are several different types of graphs that will be used to represent data during this activity, and it is important to understand the differences between them. To see examples of these types of graphs, look at Student Pages 2, 3, and 4: Graphs, which will be used during this activity. A box plot is useful for the comparison of two or more samples, such as comparing data about postage costs for international mail and for local mail. A box plot is created by finding the median of a set of data, the inter-quartile range of the data, and the range of the data. A number line is drawn, and then, above this, a line is drawn from one end of the range of the data set to the other (from the lowest response to the highest response). A rectangle or box is drawn over this line that goes from the lower end of the interquartile range (the median of the values that are lower than the Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

median of the whole data set) to the upper end of the inter-quartile range (the median of the values that are higher than the median of the whole data set). A vertical line is drawn inside that rectangle where the median is. A scatter plot is more useful for looking at two related characteristics within one sample, such as weight of a package and cost of postage for the package. A scatter plot is created by placing one of those characteristics on the xaxis and one on the yaxis, then plotting each data point where it lines up on both the xaxis and the yaxis. A circle graph is useful for showing the percentage of responses that fall into each category. It is created by drawing a circle, then dividing it into pie wedges that are sized in proportion to the percentage of responses from the category represented by each pie wedge.

Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

Graph Types
1. Tell what you know about graphical representations and discuss the different ways you could use to show the results of your data collection in the previous activity.
If students can think of more than one way to represent the movie popularity data, ask them to explain how they might choose the type of graph to use.

2. Examine the various graphs shown on Student Pages 2, 3, and 4 and explain how each graph represents a particular data set and what questions each graph could help answer about the data set.
Explain that there are many different types of graphs that can be used to represent a set of data, such as a line plot, a bar graph, a box plot, a circle graph, or a scatter plot. Explain what each of these types of graphs looks like (referring to the notes at the beginning of this activity, if necessary). Ask questions such as the following about the graphs:

Are there questions about the data that could be answered by looking at more than one of these types of graphs? Where have you seen graphs that look like any of these types of graphs? In newspapers? In science class? In books? Can you tell me anything about the type of data you would need to have to effectively use each of these types of graphs?

3. Explain what type of graph would be most appropriate for displaying the information on each Data Card from Student Page 5
Have students explain their choices of graphs for each data set, and what they would learn from that type of graph.

4. Create a graph for one of the data sets from Student Page 5.
Have students explain what information should go on the horizontal axis, what information should go on the vertical axis, and how they Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

will determine the points on the graph. Ask students to think about the scale of the graph with questions such as:

How big a number is possible on the horizontal axis? How big a number is possible on the vertical axis? Is it possible to have a spot for every number on each of these axis? How else could you represent the appropriate range of numbers, without writing every number down?
Have students finish making the graph on graph paper, then talk about what this graph shows about the data, and what benefits there are to making a graph rather than just looking at the list of data.

Graphing the Movie Data

1. Look back at your data from Activity 1 and think about which type of graph would best help to answer the question of which movies are most popular.
Ask students to explain what questions the different types of graphs would help them to answer about the movie section. Then ask them to choose the graph that would best help them to answer research questions they have chosen. Ask students to explain their thinking.

2. Construct a graph of your penny data.

Be sure that students are paying attention to aspects of the graph such as: Scale of the graph How the data is grouped and categorized on the graph Labels that make the graph understandable

3. Create two other types of graphs for the same data.

Have students think about what they can learn from each of the graphs they have created, and which graph they think best tells the story of the data. If they are still not satisfied that they have created the best type of graph, they could try creating other types of graphs.

Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

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Interpretation and Evaluation of Data

Mathematical Focus
8 Mean, median, and mode 8 Tools for interpreting the spread of a data set (range, interquartile range)

8 Clusters and outliers 8 Inferences about a data set

In this activity, students analyze the data that they have collected and represented during the last two activities. They begin to discuss clusters, skewness, outliers, median, mode, and mean by examining the data that they have collected. They discuss what inferences can be made about the situation and about their research questions based on the data they have collected.

Preparation and Materials

8 8 8 8
Student Page 5: Data Cards Student Page 6: Median and Mode Cards Student Page 7: Mean Cards Student Page 8: Interpreting the Data

The activities in this section are designed for students who already have some familiarity with analyzing information about a single population, and with finding median, mode, and range for a set of data. If students need more work on these concepts, you may want to work through the Statistics and Probability, Grades 3-5 activities before starting these activities. It will be important to understand the meaning of mean, median, and mode during this activity. The mean of a group of numbers is found by adding all the numbers together and then dividing by the number of numbers. The mode of a set of data is the category or number that occurs most frequently in that data. The median of a set of data is the number with an equal number of responses above and below it. If Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

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there is any even number of responses, the median is halfway between the middle two numbers.

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Median and Mode

1. Explain the terms median and mode.
If students need an explanation, tell them that median and mode are two different ways of telling where the middle or average of a set of data is. The mode is the piece of data that occurs most frequently, while the median is the piece of data for which there are an equal number of higher and lower responses.

Match the Data Cards

Goal: To make a matching set of three cards in your hand, with a data card, a matching mode card, and a matching median card. Players: 2 or more Materials: Data cards from Student Page 5, leaving out the blank data cards; Median and mode cards from Student Page 6, leaving out the Extra Median and Mode cards Instructions: Shuffle the data cards, the median cards, and the mode cards together. Deal three cards to each player and place the rest of the cards face down in a pile in the middle. Player One draws the top card from the face-down pile, then chooses one card from his or her hand to pass on to the next player. The next player takes this new card, then chooses a card to pass on to the next player (or to discard if there are no more players). Play continues with every player receiving one new card each round and passing on one card each round. The first player receives his or her card from the draw pile each time, and the last player passes his or her card to a discard pile. The first player to have a matching set should yell out Match! He or she wins the game after showing why the data card, the median card, and the mode card in his or her hand match. If nobody has won, and there are no cards left in the draw pile, the discard pile should become the new draw pile. You may need to remind students before playing this game that mode is the number or response that occurs most frequently in the data set, while median is the numerical response that has an equal number of higher and lower responses within the data set.

2. Create new data cards to match with the extra median and mode cards from Student Page 6.
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If students have any difficulty, ask them the following questions:

If this number is the mode, how many times should this number occur in the data set? If this number is the median, what numbers are higher than this number and what numbers are lower than this number in the data set that you create?

3. Think about the median and the mode of the data from the movie section.
Ask students:

Does it make sense to have a median of this data? If so, what is the median of this data set? If not, explain why. What is the mode? Is it bimodal? [Bimodal means that
there are two modes, or two values that tie for highest]

If you were researching a different question, would there be a different mode?

Finding the Mean

1. Explain what the mean tells about a data set.
If students do not remember, remind them that the mean is a statistics term for average. Give the example of an average test score. Explain that the mean score on a test is the average score for that test.

2. Predict then determine the mean age of your family members.

Ask students to list their family members and their ages. Ask them to predict the mean age of their family, then have them determine the mean age.

3. Predict the mean age of the children in your classroom and explain why the mean age for a typical class is different from the mean age of a typical family. 4. Match the Mean cards from Student Page 7 with the different sets of data from Student Page 5.
Ask students to explain their choices.

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5. Calculate the mean of the data from the movie section.

Ask students to explain what the mean tells them about the set of data from the movie section.

Clusters, Range, Outliers

1. Discuss what each of the terms on Student Page 8: Interpreting the Data means.
Explain what each of the terms on Student Page 8 means, or if students already understand the terms, ask them how they would explain to a younger student what the terms mean.

2. Using your data and graphs about the movie section determine the range, clusters, and outliers of the data and what they mean.
Ask: Are there any outliers? What is the range of the data set? Are

there any clusters?

Inferences
1. Examine all of the movie information you have gathered from the movie section and determine what inferences can be made.
Students should have a list of data that they collected, a research question, a graph or two to represent the data, and some information about the median, mode, mean, skewness, range, and outliers of the data. The next step is to determine any inferences that can be made. Explain that an inference is something that you believe may be true about the data. Ask students what could be true about the movie theatres, based on the data. Ask how students could confirm or disconfirm their beliefs about what might be true.

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Student Designed Data Collection and Analysis

Mathematical Focus
8 Formulation of research questions 8 Data collection, representation, and interpretation
In this activity, students formulate a question about another section of the newspaper (other than the movie section). They then collect data, choose a way to represent that data, and begin to analyze and interpret the data.

Preparation and Materials

8 Newspaper

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Collecting More Data

1. Come up with a question that you could research about a section other than the movie section of a typical newspaper.
Students could design a question about the advertisements, the comics, the sports section, the classifieds, or some other section.

2. Explain how you will collect data to answer your question, make predictions about what you will find, then actually collect and record data.
Encourage students to revise their predictions and explain their thinking as they collect data. Ask students what kind of data they are collecting, and why this data is appropriate.

Representing the Data

1. Determine how you could represent the data you collected about the newspaper.
Have students explain how the graphical representation they choose helps them interpret the data. (See in the notes at the beginning of Activity 2 for a description of the types of graphs that are useful in different situations.)

2. Construct the type of graph you chose to represent the data.

Ask students to pay attention to scale, labels, and data points.

Examining the Data

1. Describe the data and the representation of the data collected from the newspaper.
If students are having trouble, remind them to think about: clusters range median mode mean Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

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outliers For each of these ways of looking at the data, ask students to explain what they might be able to learn from the data.

2. Discuss the inferences you can make about the data based on the graphs, the data set, and the information you have gathered about the data set and graphs.

Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

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Probability and Games

Mathematical Focus
8 Probability games 8 Fairness and probability 8 Percentages and proportions related to probability
In this activity, students explore the notion of probability. They play games, examine the probability of different outcomes in those games, and discuss whether those games are fair. They begin to explore how percents or proportions are related to probabilities.

Preparation and Materials

8 8 8 8
Student Page 8: Number Cards Student Page 9: Spinner Student Page 10: Spinner Chart A collection of 20 items that are all the same except that they are of various colors (with 25 colors represented within the group)

8 A non-transparent bag big enough to hold the 20 items

If students do not have a basis of understanding in probability, you will probably want to revisit the Statistics and Probability, Grades 3-5 activities before beginning this activity.

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Card Games
Even/Odd
Goal: To be the first player to reach 15 points Players: 2 Materials: The 1, 2, and 3 cards from Student Page 8 Instructions: Decide who will be the Even Number Player and who will be the Odd Number Player. Place the 1 card, the 2 card, and the 3 card face down and mix them up. Pick two of the cards and flip them over. If the two cards add up to an odd number, the Odd Number Player gets a point; if the two cards add up to an even number, the Even Number Player gets a point. Return these two cards to the face-down pile, mix the cards up again, and choose two more cards at random from the pile. Play until one player reaches 15 points. Check to see whether the Odd Number Player or the Even Number Player won. Switch roles if the students wish, then play again. Predict who will win and discuss why.

1. Explain why the Odd Number Player or the Even Number Player might be more likely to win or lose in the Even/Odd Game.
Ask students to explain whether they think the game is fair. (i.e. Do each of the players have an equal chance of winning the game and why or why not?) Ask:

What are all the possible combinations of numbers that could be drawn together from the pile? What do each of these combinations add up to? How many of the combinations are odd? How many are even? How many total combinations are there? What fraction of the total combinations are odd numbers? What fraction of the total combinations are even numbers? Do these fractions help you explain why the game is unfair? To whom is the game unfair? Can you convert these fractions into percentages and decimals?
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Explain that the probability that an event will occur (i.e., that the sum will be even or odd) is found by making a fraction with the number of possible outcomes of that type as numerator and the number of total possible outcomes as denominator and then converting this fraction to a decimal. The closer this decimal is to one, the more likely it is to occur (one means certain to occur), and the closer it is to zero, the less likely it is to occur (zero means definitely wont occur).

2. Explain what you think would happen if you played the Even/Odd Game with just the 2 card, the 4 card, and the 6 card.
Ask: Would the game be unfair to one of the players now? Which player? Have students play a round of the game to check their predictions.

More on Probability and Games

1. Think of probabilities that come up in your daily lives.
Students may have heard probabilities used in weather reports, newspaper stories, or in describing the likelihood that someone will do something in particular.

2. Make up card games using the cards from Student Page 5: Number Cards (or other number cards that you make on pieces of paper).
Have students explain why their games are fair or not fair. (They should try making some of each type of game.)

Spinner Game
Goal: To be the first player to have 15 points. Players: 2 or more Materials: Spinner cut from Student Page 6, copies of Student Page 7: Spinner Chart for each player Instructions: Each player, including the teacher, chooses three of the options listed on Student Page 7 and gets a point each time the spinner lands on a number that satisfies one of the chosen options. Record the points in the chart on Student Page 7. Play until one player reaches 15.

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3. Play The Spinner Game again, but decide if you would like to revise which scoring option you choose.
Ask students to explain what their choices would be and to justify these choices. Help students to see that more of the numbers satisfy some of the options (i.e., Odd number) than satisfy other options (i.e., 15): therefore, there is a higher probability of spinning those numbers and scoring points. However, students should also be aware that some of the options are satisfied by the same numbers, so to increase their chances of scoring points, they should choose options that are satisfied by different numbers.

Percentages and Probability

1. Calculate what percentage of the numbers on the spinner would satisfy each of the options on Student Page 7.
There are 10 numbers on the spinner, so the percentage can be calculated by multiplying by 10 the number of numbers which satisfy the requirement. Ask:

What percentage of the time should a number that satisfies Option 1 come up? What percentage of the time should a number that satisfies Option 2 come up? Which option should be satisfied 30 percent of the time? If 100 percent is equal to a probability of 1 (certain to happen) and 0 percent is equal to a probability of 0 (never happens), how do you think you could translate into probabilities the percentage of times a spin satisfies each option? [Make a fraction with the number of numbers that
satisfy the option as numerator and the total number of numbers as denominator; convert this fraction to a decimal or percentage, and use the decimal as the probability.]

2. List the number of items of each color in a bag of 20 objects, calculate the percentage of items of each color, and then estimate the probability that they will pull an item out of each color when they reach into the bag.
Give students a non-transparent bag filled with 20 objects that are the same except that they are different colors. (Two to five colors should be represented. You could use M&Ms, socks, multi-colored paper clips Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

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or paper, different types of soda cans, or many other objects. Two to five colors should be represented). Have students take the items out of the bag and list how many there are of each color, the percentage of each color, and the probability of pulling out an item of each color.

3. Test your predictions about the color of the item you pull out at random.
Have students replace the items in the bag and test their predictions by pulling items out of the bag and recording what the color is. (Each time they pull an item out, they should record its color, then replace it in the bag and mix up the contents of the bag before pulling the next item out.) Ask students if they are surprised by what they find and why or why not.

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Computations of Probability
Mathematical Focus
8 Probability 8 Mutually exclusive, independent, and dependent events 8 Computation of probability (lists, tree diagrams, area models)
In this activity, students continue to discuss probability, now moving into such topics as events that are mutually exclusive, independent, and dependent. Students learn to compute simple probabilities with methods like lists, tree diagrams, and area models.

Preparation and Materials

8 Student page 11: Probabilities 8 Student Page 12: Tree Diagram 8 Student Page 13: Capture Game Board
It will be important to understand how to compute probabilities during this activity. Probability can be calculated by converting a fraction into a decimal when the fraction has a numerator that represents the number of times a particular event occurs and the denominator represents the number of total events. The larger the number in the numerator (the events you are interested in), the closer the fraction or decimal will be to one, which means certain in the language of probability. The smaller the numerator, the closer the fraction or decimal will be to zero, or an impossible probability.

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Independent, Dependent, and Mutually Exclusive Events

1. Answer questions about the probability of various events.
Ask students the following questions:

If you ask for the birthday of anyone from your classroom, how likely is it that it will be in January? If you know that pizza is the favorite food of the child you are asking, will this affect how likely it is that this childs birthday is in January? Why or why not?
Explain that the probability of a particular month of birth is an independent event from the probability of a particular choice of favorite food, and this is why the likelihood of a particular birth month is not affected by knowing the favorite food of a child. Now ask the following questions:

If you know that the person you asked has a winter birthday, will this affect the probability that the child was born in January? What will the probability be if there are three months in winter? If you know that the person has a summer birthday, what is the probability of a January birthday? Explain.
Once we know that the child was born in the winter, we can say that the likelihood that the child was born in January is one in three because there are three possible months. Once we know another child was born in the summer, we can say that the likelihood that the child was born in January is zero. Now ask students the following questions:

Can one be born both in the summer and the winter? Can one be born both in January and in February? Can one be born in both January and in 1985? Can one be born in January and like pizza? Can one be born in January and in the winter?
Explain that when one event means that the other event cannot be true (i.e., being born in summer means that you cannot have been Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

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born in winter), these two events are called mutually exclusive. Ask students to try to think of some examples of events that are mutually exclusive and some examples of events that are not mutually exclusive and explain why the events are or are not exclusive of each other.

2. Look at the events described on Student Page 11, marking statements with no blanks as true or false and filling in blank spaces to make the other statements true.

Lists
1. Determine combinations of numbers that should score points if they are rolled on two dice.
Show students two dice and ask them to pick what combinations of numbers will score points in a game they will create. (Yahtzee is an example of a dice game where certain combinations of numbers score different amounts of points for the player.) Ask students how they chose the combinations that they chose. If students have trouble thinking of combinations, suggest possible combinations such as:

Two of a kind Two different numbers At least one odd number Two even numbers Two numbers in a row (1, 2 or 5, 6, etc.)

2. Determine how often a roll containing one of the combinations you picked will come up.
Students should list all the possible combinations that could be rolled for the two dice.

3. Assign how many points will be won for each of the combinations that scores points in your game.
Have students assign how many points will be won for each combination. Remind them that they should consider how likely a combination is to occur when deciding how many points that combination will earn. If a combination event will hardly ever happen, it should probably score a lot of points when it does. Combinations that will occur often should score fewer points.

4. Play the dice game you created.

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Play the game the students have created until each player has taken 10 rolls or until one player has reached a specific number of points. Ask students if they want to make any changes to their games and why.

Tree Diagrams
1. Figure out the probability that a person will choose any one of four types of pizza for his or her first piece of pizza, given that there is an equal likelihood of any of the four choices.
Explain that there is a restaurant that has the following four choices for their dinner specials: Special #1: One slice of deluxe pizza with either ice cream or cookies for dessert (Half of the people who order this special choose ice cream and half choose cookies.) Special #2: One slice of pepperoni pizza followed by a slice of pepperoni or a slice of cheese with ice cream for dessert. (Equal numbers of people choose pepperoni and cheese for the second slice.) Special #3: Two slices of cheese pizza with ice cream for dessert Special #4: Two slices of vegetable pizza The first slice of pizza chosen must be either deluxe, pepperoni, cheese, or vegetable, depending on the special chosen. Have students write the probability of any of these four choices by each line on Student Page ?.

2. Continue to fill out the tree diagram on Student Page ? to show the probability of each choice.
Ask students the following questions to help them fill out the tree diagram:

If the person chooses the deluxe pizza, what is the next choice that he or she has to make? What should be written on the ends of the lines that represent the decisions he or she could make at this point, and what is the probability of making each choice? If the person chooses pepperoni pizza for the first slice, what could the second slice be? What are the probabilities of each choice?
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If the person has a slice of cheese first, what will the second slice be? Will there be dessert to follow? What are the probabilities of these events? Are they likely? Are they certain? What will happen if the first slice is vegetable pizza? Are there any choices to be made about the second slice? Will any dessert follow?

3. Explore the tree diagram by answering questions about it.

Ask questions such as:

How many types of pizza could a person have before having ice cream? Before having cookies? Before having no dessert? Is it possible to have both a piece of vegetable pizza and a piece of pepperoni pizza when ordering a dinner special? Show why or why not on the tree diagram.

4. Answer questions about the probability of series of events occuring, based on the tree diagram.
Explain that the probability of a series of events is calculated by multiplying the probability of each of the events together. For example, the probability that a person will choose the deluxe pizza with ice cream for dessert can be found by multiplying 0.25 by 0.5. This is because 25 percent of people choose the deluxe pizza dinner special and then 50 percent of that 25 percent choose to have ice cream for dessert rather than cookies. Ask about the probabilities of various series of events occurring. Ask questions such as the following:

What is the probability of a person having pepperoni, then cheeze pizza, then ice cream? What is the probability of a person having deluxe pizza, then cookies? What is the probability of a person having two pieces of vegetable pizza followed by cookies?

Area Models
1. Discuss when an area model of probability can be used.

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Explain to students that they are going to look at one more way of calculating probabilities. (They have already explored the idea of listing all the possible events that could occur and calculating the probability of certain types of events occurring by counting how many of the total events are of that type. They have also tried making tree diagrams to display how events could occur together.) Now they will learn to use area models to calculate probabilities. Explain that area models can be used when the probabilities being calculated are related to a portion of space.

2. Use an area model of probability to answer questions about the game board from the game Capture, similar to Battleship.
Remind students of the game of Capture which they may have played while working on the activities from Geometry and Measurement, Grades 6-8. This game is very similar to the game Battleship. Players try to guess where on a grid of space there are ships, and try to avoid guessing parts of the space that represent water. Ask students to look at Student Page 13: Capture Game Board. There are two cruiser ships (boats that are three blocks long), three sailboats (boats that are two blocks long), and four rowboats (boats that are one block long). Ask students to calculate the area of the entire grid, the area that is taken up by water, and the area that is taken up by boats. Ask students the following questions about how they would use the information about the areas in the grid to calculate probabilities:

What is the area taken up by boats? What is the are of the entire grid? What is the probability of hitting a boat, given the area taken up by boats and the area of the entire grid? What is the probability of hitting water? What is the probability of hitting a rowboat? If you know that you hit a boat (and not water),what is the probability that the boat you hit is a sailboat? Explain your thinking.

Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

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Other Data Collection Ideas

Mathematical Focus
This section provides a list of other possible sources of data that students could use for data collection, representation, and interpretation. This data could also be used to explore probability using the ideas in Activities 6 and 7.

Materials & Preparation

8 Any necessary materials for the type of data collection that you
choose to pursue

Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

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Interviewing People
1. Design a question about peoples opinions or tastes.
After making estimations about the patterns they expect to see in the data they will collect, students interview of 1020 people to get their responses to this question.

2. Choose a way to represent your data.

Ask: What makes sense given the question asked? What kind of data

have you collected? Will different types of graphs give you different information about the data?

3. Discuss the inferences that can be made from the data.

Ask students:

Would the data look similar if another 1020 people were interviewed? Does it matter which set of 1020 people are chosen for interviews? Did anything surprise you as you looked at the data you collected? How would your own responses to the questions fit into the data that you collected?

Statistical Sources on the Internet

There are many sources of data available on the internet. If internet access is available, students could use it to find data. Students could design questions on sports statistics or opinions on a particular topic, then they could search for answers on a search site such as Yahoo.

Television and Magazines

Students could design research questions about how many advertisements they will see during various television programs or in various magazines, what the topics of new articles or news shows will be about, how many males are females are portrayed in pictures or on the television, or any of a number of other questions. Statistics and Probability, Grades 6-8

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Observations about Passing People or Cars

Students design research questions about passing people or cars. They might ask questions such as: How often do green cars go by?

What color hair do people who pass by have? What size are the groups of people that walk by? How many people are in each car that goes by? What is the most popular color of car on the road at this time?

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The Movies

Statistics and Probability, Grades 68 Stu

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Graphs I
The following chart contains weather information from www.worldclimate.com. The data for the three United States cities which are shown include average daily temperatures (which represent the average temperature for full 24-hour days for each month) and average precipitation (rain, sleet, snow, hail for each month). The data was compiled as of 1996. Seattle, Washington Average Average Daily Precipitation Temperature (in inches) (in degrees fahrenheit) 39.2 5.2 42.4 4.0 44.6 3.3 48.9 2.3 54.9 1.8 60.3 1.4 64.6 0.7 64.4 0.9 59.9 1.8 52.2 3.1 44.8 5.2 40.6 5.7 51.4 35.2 Boston, Massachusetts Average Average Daily Precipitation Temperature (in inches) (in degrees fahrenheit) 27.3 3.6 28.2 3.3 35.6 3.8 45.7 3.6 56.5 3.4 65.8 3.1 71.1 3.3 69.3 3.8 62.1 3.4 51.6 3.4 41.0 3.9 31.6 3.6 48.7 42.3 Tucson, Arizona Average Average Daily Precipitation Temperature (in inches) (in degrees fahrenheit) 52.9 1.0 56.1 0.9 60.1 0.8 67.3 0.3 75.4 0.2 84.6 0.3 87.6 2.0 86.0 2.2 81.7 1.2 71.6 0.8 60.3 0.7 53.6 1.1 69.8 11.4

January February March April May June July August September October November December Entire Year

Boxplot: Average Daily Temperature for Each Month of the Year in Three Cities

Tucson Seattle Boston

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Statistics and Probability, Grades 68 Student Page 2

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Graphs II
Lineplot:
Average Rainfall by Month in Tucson (measured in inches)

X
# of Months

X X X
0-0.5 inches

X X X X
0.6-1.0 inches

X X
1.1-1.5 inches

X
1.6-2.0 inches

X
2.1-2.5 inches

Circle Graph
Average Daily Rainfall in Seattle by Season

29% 42%

Winter (December, January, February) Spring (March, April, May) Summer (June, July, August)

8% 21%

Fall (September, October, November)

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Graphs III
Scatter Plot
Average R ainfal for each Month vs. Average D aily Temperature for each Month
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

S e attle B o sto n T ucson

Bar Graph
Average Rainfall by Month
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 January April July October
Seattle Boston Tucson

Statistics and Probability, Grades 68 Student Page 4

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Data Cards
Students Favorite #s: Student 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Favorite # 3 13 100 86 10 100 7 7 9 Prices of Desserts: Dessert Cake Pie Price $2.50 $2.50

Ice Cream $1.50 3 cookies $3.00 Popsicle $1 00

Distances to Places from Mikes House: Location Store Library School Airport Friends House Hospital Distance 2 miles 3 miles 3 miles 4 miles 3 miles 2 miles

Students Family Sizes: Student 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 # in Family 2 3 6 5 3 4 4 4 3

Weights of Babies when born: Baby 1 2 3 4 5 6 Weight 5 lb. 7 lb. 7 lb. 7 lb. 8 lb. 6 lb.

# of Players on Sports Teams: Sport # on Teams Soccer 20 Football 40 Baseball 18 Swim team 20 Basketball 15

Create Data:

Create Data:

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Median and Mode Cards

Median 10 Median 2.50 Mode 7 and 100 Mode 2.50

Median 3

Median 4

Mode 3

Mode 3 and 4

Median 7

Median 20

Mode 7

Mode 20

Extra Median Card 25

38

Extra Median Card 100

Extra Mode Card 5

Extra Mode Card 48

Statistics and Probability, Grades 68 Student Page 6

Mean Cards

Mean 37.22

Mean 2.1

Mean 2.83

Mean 3.78

Mean 6.67

Mean 22.6

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Interpreting the Data

RANGE:

The range is the interval between the smallest and largest value in the data set.

OUTLIERS: These are isolated data points.

CLUSTERS: A cluster is a pile-up of data at one point on the number

line.

Statistics and Probability, Grades 68 Student Page 8

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Number Cards

3 6

4
41

Statistics and Probability, Grades 68 Student Page 9

Spinner
Use cardboard to make the spinners. Cut out circles. Put one end of a paperclip over the middle of each circle. Push a paper fastener through the end of the paperclip and through the center of the spinner. Close the fasteners, loosely, on the back of the spinner. (See the example, below.)

Example:

50 2 30 12
Statistics and Probability, Grades 68 Student Page 10

37 15 3 43

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Spinner Chart
Each Player should choose 3 of the following to earn points when the spinner is spun. (There can be overlap between different players choices.) Multiples of 10 Even Numbers 15 Multiples of 6 Numbers containing the digit 3 Factors of 12

Player

Scoring Choices Score: Place a tally mark by

(write each players three choices here) a player each time that a number that satisfies one of his or her scoring choices is spun

Player 1 Player 2

Player 3

Player 4
Statistics and Probability, Grades 68 Student Page 11

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Probabilities
Event #1 Event #2 Statement True/False

There are no red jellybeans in the bowl.

There are 10 green jellybeans in the bowl.

These two events are mutually exclusive.

Circle one: True False

In a particular 3rd grade class, the probability of picking a child that likes the color purple best is .33.

Event #2s probability Fill in event #2 to make is independent of Event the statement true. #1.

In another 3rd grade class, the probability of picking a child who likes yellow the best is .10.

What is the probability of picking a child in that class who likes yellow best and purple 2nd best?

Event #2s probability is dependent on Event #1s probability.

Circle One: True False

4 out of 20 children on the town soccer team are their parents only children. What is the probability of choosing a child with no siblings? What is the probability of rolling a 6 on a standard die?

On that same team, what is the probability of choosing a child with at least 1 brother or sister?

These two events are mutually exclusive.

Circle One: True False

These two events are independent of each other.

Fill in Event #2 to make the statement true.

Statistics and Probability, Grades 68 Student Page 12

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Statistics and Probability, Grades 68 Student Page 12

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Tree Diagram

DELUXE

COOKIES

PEPPERONI

PEPPERONI

CHEESE

CHEESE

ICE CREAM

VEGETABLE

VEGETABLE

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Capture Game Board

[Shows a 10 by 10 grid with water in all of the squares but 20, and those 20 squares contain one 4 square boat, 2 3-square boats, 3 2-square boats, and 4 1-square boats]

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