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model proposed by Herbert A. Simon will be used as the basis for describing the decision making process The model consists of three major phases 1. Intelligence 2. Design 3. Choice
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Intelligence Searching the environment for conditions calling for decisions Data inputs are obtained, processed and examined for clues that may identify problems or opportunities Design Inventing, developing and analyzing possible courses of action involves processes to understand the problem, to generate solutions and to test solutions for feasibility
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Choice Selecting an alternative or course of action from those available A choice is made and implemented
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There is a flow of activities from intelligence to design to choice, but at any phase there may be a return to a previous phase E.g. Each time the user of an automobile starts the engine, there is a conscious or unconscious scanning to detect possible engine problems
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defined as Finding a difference between some existing situation and some desired state This is compared to reality, differences are identified and the differences are evaluated Pounds identifies four models which produce expectations against which reality is measured:
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1 Historical models in which the expectation is based on an extrapolation of past experience 2 Planning models in which the plan is the expectation 3 Models of other people in the organization, such as superiors, subordinates, other departments, etc. 4 Extra organizational models in which expectations are derived from competition, customers and professional organizations
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The purpose of problem formulation is to clarify the problem, so that design and choice activities operate on the "right" problem Frequently, the process of clearly stating the problem is sufficient Four strategies for reducing complexity and formulating a manageable problem are:
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1 Determining the boundaries (i.e.. clearly identifying what is included in the problem) 2 Examining changes that may have precipitated the problem 3 Factoring the problem into smaller sub problems 4 Focusing on the controllable elements
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A significant part of the process of decision making is the generation of alternatives to be considered in the choice phase creativity can be enhanced by aids such as scenarios, analogies, brainstorming, checklists, templates of decision process etc
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