2009 10 Central European University

1991

www.soros.org/resources/multimedia/sorosceu_20091112

Peter Osnos
Colin McGinn Mark Notturno,
John Shattuck Anatole Kaletsky, Ivan Krasteve, Mark Danner,
Howard Davies Cristonvam Buarque

.
2010 1

(conceptual framework)

50

(falsify)(verify)

(perfect knowledge)

1944

1944

(The Burden of
Consciousness)

concept of
reflexivity -

(The Alchemy of Finance) 1987

2008

(fallibility)

.(David Hume)
(reason is the slave of passion)

(cognitive function)

(participating or manipulative function)

(independent variable) (dependent variable)

knowledge

(true statement)
(correspondence theory of truth)

(correspondence).

self-reference

(feedback loops)

(self-reflexivity)

2008

(self-correcting)
(equilibrium)

(extreme case) (limiting case)
(self-reinforcing)

-

(fertile fallacies)

human uncertainty principle

(Cartesian philosophy)
(subjective skepticism)

(prediction, explanation
and testing)

(verified)
(falsified)

(generalization)

.
physics envy

(fiction)

..Friedrich Hayek

doctrine of the unity of

method

Werner Heisenberg

Efficient
Market Hypothesis

(underlying fundamentals)

(mispricing)

(use of leverage)

(feedback loops)
(self-correcting); (self-reinforcing)

- (boom-bust process)

(Citigroup).(Chuck
Prince) :

1987 60
(earnings-per-share),
(stock prices)

(Ogden Corporation)

(1) 2

; (3)45; (6)
; (7)

(Lease Co.)
(Manufacturer Hanover Trust Company)

(forced
liquidation)

(collateral )
(availability of credit)

1982
(sovereign debt)

70

.(Paul Volcker)

90 . (Alan Greenspan) 1996

(move in large, multi-year waves)

(self-validating),

2007-2008

(rational expectations theory)

2008

(risk exposure)
(increased liquidity preference)

2007 (subprime
buble)
(collateralized debt obligation)

(magic
of the marketplace), (market fundamentalism)
. 80

 1982

1987 10 portfolio insurance debacle

1989 1994 1997-98
2000

2007

2007

-
1997-98

2007-08
2008 9 15

(margin requirements) (minimum capital

requirement)
moods

17
. 1996

(SEC) (equity
leveraging)

(sovereign wealth funds)(derivatives)

(credit default swap) (knockout options) ,

(proprietary trading)
(compensation package)

1933 Glass-Steagall

(risk rating)
concentrated positions in securities

1998

(paradigm)

(Institute for New Economic Thinking, INET)

5
1

 2010 4 10 11 (Kings College)

.
(inherent
fallibility),

(misconception)

(net effect),
(perfect knowledge)

1984
1986 1987

2004

1789 1794

(fertile fallacy)

. (Frank Luntz)
. (George Orwell) 1984

. (Bill OReilly)
. (Rush Limbaugh)

. (Ron Suskind)

:
(power)
(truth)

30

(Aztec)

1944
1944

(Animal

Spirits), .(George Akerlof) . (Robert Shiller)

2008

(agency problem):

(incentives)

(resource
curse)

Global Witness
( Publish What You Pay)

2002
(fertile fallacy)
(fly-by-night operators)

(Extractive
Industries Transparency Initiative),

(financial engineers) (collateralized debt obligations, or

CDO) ,

 (money doesnt smell)

. (Bruce R. Scott)
Springer 2009

. (Milton Friedman)

80

(amoral)

(immoral)

()

1956

1956

1956

amorality

(general equilibrium theory)

25

recapitalizing the banks

1956

(scarcity value)

(trial and error)

(face value)

(Orwellian propaganda)

(prediction)
(prescription)

1991
30

30
1929 (credit outstanding) GDP 160%,
1932 250% 2008 365% 30
(derivatives)

2008

( double dip) 2010 2011

(uni-polar)

Bretton Woods
(John Maynard Keynes)
. (Harry White)

(Washington Consensus)

(two-tier)

1982

(collective system of lending)(roll over

loans)

(Brady bonds)

1997 ,

2007-08
(IMF)

80

(Basel
Accord)

80

(leveraged
buyouts)


8%

(Unocal) (Rio Tinto)

(EITI, Extractive
Industries Transparency Initiative)

(Special
Drawing Rights)

(the path of least resistance)

20
(peer review process)
20

(pecking
order)

(SDR)
,