Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q3 2011

CONTENTS
Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 7
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................. 8
Indonesia Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................... 8
Indonesia Mobile Business Environment SWOT .................................................................................................................................................... 9
Indonesia Political SWOT.................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Indonesia Economic SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT .............................................................................................................................................................. 12

Business Environment .................................................................................................................................. 13

Asia ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Indonesia ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Table: Asia Telecoms Business Environment Ratings .......................................................................................................................................... 17

Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 18

Mobile ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Mobile Historical Data And Forecasts ..................................................................................................................................................... 18
ARPU ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Table: ARPU Historical Data And Forecasts ...................................................................................................................................................... 20
Fixed Line ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Table: Fixed Line Historical Data And Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................. 22
Internet ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Table: Telecoms Sector Internet Historical Data And Forecasts ................................................................................................................... 23

Market Data Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 25

Mobile ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Market Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Table: No. Of Mobile Subscribers (Q410) ........................................................................................................................................................... 26
Subscriber Divisions ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 28
Prepaid ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28
Postpaid ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
ARPU ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
3G ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 31
Mobile Contract Wins .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2010 ............................................................................................................................................................ 34
Mobile Content ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Regional Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Country Outlook ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
SMS...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Table: Telkomsel SMS Messages Sent (bn) Vs Revenues Per SMS (IDR) ............................................................................................................ 37
Mobile Broadband ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Mobile TV ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 39
Other Content ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2008-2009 ........................................................................................................................................... 40
Mobile Operator Data ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Table: Indonesia Mobile Market Overview .......................................................................................................................................................... 42
Table: Telkomsel.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
Table: Indosat ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44

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Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q3 2011

Table: Excelcomindo ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 45

Table: Bakrie Telecom ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Fixed-Line................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 48
Fixed-Wireless ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 50
Table: Major Fixed-Wireless Operators Number Of Subscribers (mn)............................................................................................................. 50
Broadband ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 53
Telkom Looks At IPTV ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Prepaid Mobile Broadband Services ................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Submarine Cable Deployments ............................................................................................................................................................................ 56
WiMAX ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 58
Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments ......................................................................................................................................... 60
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2009 .......................................................................................................................................................... 60

Regulatory Environment................................................................................................................................ 61
Indonesia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities ................................................................................................................................... 61
Interconnection .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Universal Service Obligation (USO).................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Regulatory Development...................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Industry Development .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 63

Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................. 65

Key Players ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65
Table: Indonesia Telecoms Sector Key Players ................................................................................................................................................... 65
Table: Key Operators Financial Indicators, 2002-2009 ...................................................................................................................................... 66

Company Monitor ........................................................................................................................................... 67

Ericsson .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67
Table: Selected Developments In The Asia Pacific Region .................................................................................................................................. 70

Operator Profiles ............................................................................................................................................ 72

Telkom ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 72
Telkomsel ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 78
Indosat ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 82
XL Axiata (Formerly Excelcomindo Axiata) ........................................................................................................................................................ 87

Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ............................................................................... 91

Mobile.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 91
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview .................................................................................................................................................... 91
Fixed-Line............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 92
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 92
Broadband ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 93
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 93

Glossary Of Terms ......................................................................................................................................... 94

Table: Glossary Of Terms.................................................................................................................................................................................... 94

BMI Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 95

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............................................................................................................................................................... 95
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts.................................................................................................................... 95
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................. 97
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ...................................................................................................................................................................... 97
Ratings System ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 97

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Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q3 2011

Indicators............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 97
Table: Ratings Indicators .................................................................................................................................................................................... 98
Weighting............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 99
Table: Weighting Of Indicators ........................................................................................................................................................................... 99
Sources ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 99

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