CASE STUDY

GTEBORG 2050 PROJECT Gteborg, Sweden

BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT The Gteborg 2050 Project was initiated in 2001 in an attempt to accelerate development towards a sustainable1 future city and region of Gothenburg, on the West coast of Sweden. The main partners in the Project were Gothenburg University, the City of Gothenburg, the Chalmers University of Technology, and the citys energy company, Gteborg Energi AB. Additional support came from the Swedish National Energy Administration, the Swedish Research Council for and Spatial Planning (Formas), the County of Vstra Gtaland and Renova (the regional waste management company). For the day-to-day management and implementation of the Project, three people were employed full-time. The underlying assumption of the Project was that developing future visions of a sustainable society can ultimately speed up change and help to implement sustainable patterns of resource use more quickly than would otherwise have been the case. Running from 20012004, the key objective of the Project was to engage and involve as many stakeholders, groups and citizens as possible in the process of developing scenarios for sustainable communities of the future in the Gothenburg region. More specifically, the Project sought to: Develop creative meeting environments for interested people to meet and discuss various aspects of a sustainable future and exchange thoughts and ideas about desirable futures; Construct and develop the knowledge base for the Project to underpin visions of the future; Initiate and support research to develop visions of the future; Visualise perspectives on the future; Support and contribute to the planning and development of strategies for sustainability; Encourage demonstration Projects showing how to take the first steps towards sustainability.

In tackling the issue of sustainability and working towards the Project objectives, the focus was on the following sustainable developmentrelated themes: Energy the Project sought to provide visionary input into the development of a new energy plan for the city of Gothenburg; Transport the Project supplied visionary input in a process in which the Gothenburg region is assessing future options for developing a sustainable transport system; Urban Structure results of the Project have been designed to feed into the citys strategic and local planning processes;

Sewerage and Waste Water Systems management plan;

the Project has contributed to the citys waste

Food the Project set out visions of sustainable food consumption; Construction the Project has set out visions for sustainable buildings/building techniques in the Gothenburg region as well as nationally and internationally.

Each of these themes was addressed by using an innovative approach to strategic planning called backcasting. Backcasting involves taking stock of the current situation in the policy area concerned, determining a set of criteria for sustainability relating to the activities in this area and developing a range of scenarios or visions that will meet these criteria. Such scenarios and visions were conceived as important input into strategic plans for sustainable development in the city of Gothenburg and its surrounding region.

KEY ISSUES The Gteborg 2050 Project emerged out of a concern that progress towards the goals of long-term environmental and social sustainability was inadequate in the Gothenburg region. Believing that progress towards these goals can be accelerated by the relevant stakeholders having a clearer vision of how a sustainable Gothenburg might look, the Project set out to engage as many relevant stakeholders as possible in developing future scenarios for a sustainable Gothenburg. While the emphasis of the Project was on the city of Gothenburg and surrounding region, its aim of local and regional sustainability was clearly embedded within a broader vision of global sustainability. As such, the purpose of the Project was to advance visions of Gothenburgs role within a globally sustainable world. More specifically, the working definition of sustainability the ultimate objective to be attained used in Gteborg 2050, encompassed the following dimensions: A good life (goda livet) a humane, multicultural society with a high quality of life and good health, with the individual as the focal point; Equitable and efficient use of the worlds natural resources; Low emissions of greenhouse gases and renewable energy supply; Closed sewerage and waste water systems to prevent the release of toxic substances into the environment; Biodiversity.

Within the Project, environmental sustainability has provided the overall limiting framework for a sustainable society. Social sustainability has been interpreted to mean the way in which we wish to live in the future the so-called good life. Economic sustainability is viewed as providing the means and tools required to achieve social sustainability within the constraints of environmental sustainability (see figure below).

Using this working definition of sustainability, the Project engaged a range of stakeholders, researchers and policy-makers in developing a number of scenarios for a future Sustainable Gothenburg. These scenarios were intended to provide input into strategic policy development for the relevant areas of public policy, while the Gteborg 2050 Project overall was conceived as a meeting place for actors interested in working on sustainable development.

DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT APPROACH Organisation Gteborg 2050 consisted of a Central Project Group and a Project Network. The Central Project Group, comprising the two project coordinators and the project information officer, was responsible for the development and documentation of the future visions that were used within the Project and for ensuring that the visualisations of the future scenarios were disseminated to achieve the greatest possible impact on policy. The Central Project Group was also responsible for ensuring that the relevant actors and stakeholders from the local authorities and business community received support to move ahead with plans and strategies that fit with the future visions. Furthermore, the goal was that these plans and strategies should lead to pilot Projects and demonstration initiatives. The Project Network consisted of representatives of the business community, local authorities and
universities and colleges, who brought their own expertise and knowledge to the Project and the future scenarios produced. The Project also funded a limited number of studies and research Projects to contribute to the visions of the future as and when needed. Finally, the Project was overseen by a Steering Committee and Reference Group. The Steering Committee was made up of representatives from the main funding bodies of Gteborg 2050, while the Reference Group was made up of experts from a range of fields of relevance to the work of the Project. These experts provided advice and critical commentary on the work of the Project.

Approach At the heart of the Gteborg 2050 Project is the use of the backcasting approach as a tool for setting out visions of a sustainable city. The backcasting approach to strategic planning involves four parts and is illustrated below. First, analysing the present state of affairs and of future trends if no specific action is taken. Second, analysis of the characteristics of a sustainable future and of unsustainable development paths. The focus here can be on ecological issues, but also expanded to include social sustainability. Economic

issues can be considered, but are less likely to have a big impact when developing long-term scenarios. This is in accordance with the conceptualization of sustainability used for the purposes of Gteborg 2050, which has the environmental and social dimensions as the main parameters, with economic sustainability providing the mechanisms by which environmental and social sustainability can be achieved. The third part is the development in Creative Workshops of one, or preferably several scenarios of possible and desirable images of the future. Initially, a scenario of a future society as similar as possible to todays, but more sustainable, is developed. As such, similar welfare distribution and levels of service as today are envisaged, but in conjunction with different technical solutions that are sustainable and more efficient. A judgement is then made of whether or not such a scenario offers local and global sustainability, and whether such sustainability can be achieved merely by the introduction of new technical solutions. If larger changes are required (i.e. it is impossible to achieve sustainability in a society largely similar to todays), a number of additional modified scenarios are developed that include organisational, systemic and technical changes and solutions. Finally, the images of the future are then used as a complementary basis for decision-making in different processes for change, in strategy work, for planning and for the production of action plans.

While the year 2050 was used as a reference point for the Project, it should not be seen as a fixed target. Rather, 2050 is a symbolic year that indicates a future point in time when sustainability has been achieved. Hence, while some features of Gothenburg are sustainable today, others will take more than one hundred years to achieve sustainability. The idea is that working with such long-term perspectives allows more scope for things to change. This allows for greater freedom in thinking about the scenarios, without being unnecessarily constrained by fixed views on how society must be because of the current state of affairs.

OUTCOMES Facilitating collaboration One of the objectives of Gteborg 2050 was to facilitate collaboration between the relevant actors engaged in planning processes in Gothenburg city and the Gothenburg region. Such collaboration was seen as a means of contributing to a long-term perspective on sustainability and visions of the future for planning activities. The Project has successfully facilitated collaboration in planning processes for a number of relevant areas, as is evident from the table below.

Area Energy planning for the city of Gothenburg

Outcome The Project has been an active participant in the working group on a new energy plan for Gothenburg. In particular, the Project has contributed with long-term sustainable perspectives on energy and energy planning. More concrete outputs and contributions from the Project have been the report, Solstad Gteborg 2050, and seminars on sustainable energy. The Project has been an active participant in a network developing strategies for sustainable transport within the Gothenburg region. The work of the network has been led by Vgvrket Vst and was entitled HUR 2050: Framtidens utmaning tillsammans utveckla en hllbar region (HOW 2050: The challenge for the future developing a sustainable region together). Johan Swahn of Gteborg 2050 was a member of the HUR 2050 Working Group and contributed with targets and aims for environmental sustainability and visions of the future. Gteborg 2050 has collaborated with the Planning Department/ Office of Gothenburg City and delivered a workshop on long-term sustainable city planning. In addition, the Project has produced the report Urban Struktur Gteborg 2050 together with employees from the Planning Department/Office. The Project has collaborated with the water systems department of Gothenburg city. The Project has delivered a workshop on long-term sustainable networks together with the Planning Department/Office and written the report Kretslopp Gteborg 2050 with its employees.

Strategic planning for sustainable transport in the Gothenburg region

The overall city planning of Gothenburg Waste water planning for Gothenburg

In addition to raising awareness among the relevant actors and stakeholders about sustainability, a more concrete outcome from these activities has been an enhanced understanding among the relevant stakeholders about the opportunities for using backcasting as a method for future work on sustainability. Accordingly, some of the relevant public authorities have initiated new Projects on sustainability using the backcasting approach. For example, the Network Authorities in Gothenburg have initiated a Project aimed at analysing the future of the citys sewerage system, using the backcasting approach as one of the methods. Furthermore, the collaborative efforts of the Project have affected the planning processes such that they now take a more longterm perspective and take greater note of the sustainability issue. Workshops, reporting and seminars Within each theme (except food), the development of the vision of the future started with a workshop, facilitated by the researchers from the core Project team. Participants at the workshops included researchers, planners, representatives from the business community and other actors with expertise and specialist knowledge of the particular theme. The first part of the workshops was devoted to setting out and going through descriptions and analysis of the current state of affairs, before turning to future development possibilities. Prior to attending the workshops, the attendees were also encouraged to bring forward thoughts and ideas about a sustainable future from their perspective.

The results from the workshops have contributed important input to the work on developing visions of the future in the five Project reports. Energy Solstad Gteborg 2050 was delivered in 2003 Transport Transports Goteborg 2050 was delivered in 2004 City planning Urban Struktur Goteborg 2050 was delivered in 2004 Water and sewerage networks Network Gteborg 2050 was delivered in 2004 Food Food Gteborg 2050 was delivered in 2004

All the reports contain a description/analysis of the current state of affairs of Gothenburg within that theme, a discussion of criteria for sustainability, a section on strategic issues for development of longterm sustainability for that theme, scenarios and visions of the future and a brief description of the initial steps required to achieve sustainability. Each report was subject to scrutiny by key stakeholders and actors at a subsequent seminar, the last of which, entitled Kick-off Gteborg 2050 was conceived as both the final Project event and a step towards the implementation phase for the scenarios developed. These seminars have been used to present and discuss reports produced as part of the Project, and have included presentations by researchers, planners, business representatives and other relevant actors and stakeholders. Contribution to skills development The Project has contributed in many ways to the development of several of the essential generic skills required for delivering sustainable communities. In particular, it has developed and implemented an approach that contributes to the development of inclusive visioning among the central stakeholders and actors involved in shaping a future sustainable Gothenburg. Furthermore, the Project is an example of how to engage the different stakeholders and ensure their involvement in shaping a sustainable community. As such, it has contributed to developing skills in stakeholder management and brokerage among the key actors. In addition, the backcasting approach is a useful tool for enhancing the analytical and research skills of the key actors involved in sustainability issues. Notably, the approach has proved useful in showing the actors how the available evidence base can be used to construct scenarios of sustainable futures. Finally, the Project has helped raise awareness of sustainability among the local and regional community, and been innovative in communicating to and engaging with main stakeholders and the general public. Gteborg 2050 thus used a range of innovative tools to engage and involve the general public in the debates on sustainability, notably through Tidskapselnprojektet. In sum, the Project serves as an illustrative example of how cities can approach the development of a range of skills for sustainability among the key stakeholders and actors.

PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED While the Project has been successful in outlining visions and scenarios, and in so doing developing the generic skills of relevant actors, it has so far not proved possible to translate those visions into policy decisions for sustainability. The fourth and last part of the backcasting approach, i.e. using the visions to influence policy, has thus proved the most difficult to implement. Paradoxically (or perhaps understandably), the Project appears to have been so successful at engaging stakeholders from all partners, and thus achieving its awareness-raising and visioning goals, precisely because it did not commit participants to implementing the outcomes in their policy work in the immediate future. Short-term political and operation considerations weigh heavily on the decision-makers involved in the Project and the potentially radical choices required to achieve a sustainable development path require a long-term strategy and strong political leadership to implement. A follow-up Project, HUR 2050, has been initiated to specifically focus on how to overcome the problem of formulating more

immediate strategies and policies for sustainable development. This Project has also ensured buy-in from a range of relevant decision-makers and stakeholders.

LESSONS LEARNT Gteborg 2050 is an illustrative example of how to engage relevant stakeholders in shaping long-term perspectives on sustainability for a city region. The focus has been on including as wide a range of participants as possible in the process, in line with the local policy-making tradition. Through the approach and methodology used, the Project has been particularly effective in raising awareness and building the knowledge base on sustainable development among the key actors and facilitating long-term thinking on sustainable development. The backcasting approach has proved a useful tool and method for developing visions of sustainability that include all relevant actors. The Project and its working methods have in general been positively received, generating considerable enthusiasm for the Project among the key actors. As such, backcasting may be a tool worth considering for cities and regions across Europe. Indeed, the opportunities for transferring the backcasting approach to other cities and regions in Europe could be significant, given the simplicity of the basic method and its applicability to a wide range of policy fields. It must be noted, however, that the success of the backcasting approach in Gothenburg in part relies on a longstanding tradition in Sweden and Gothenburg of involvement and cooperation between key stakeholders in the policy-making process. The backcasting approach may thus find a more receptive audience in Sweden than would be the case elsewhere. There appears to be a difficult tradeoff between allowing participants maximum freedom in conceptualizing future scenarios (thus maximising the visionary aspect of the work) and translating the outcomes of backcasting directly into policy decisions. If the conditions for taking part in a Project such as Gteborg 2050 involve commitment to certain policies or strategies that emerge from the work undertaken, it is more difficult to get key actors on board in the first place. It is therefore important to distinguish in scenario building between short-term actions which can realistically be adopted quickly and longer term objectives, which should inform short-term decisions, but which require a longer timeframe to implement. Strong leadership and political commitment are important in ensuring short-term actions are translated into practice.

SOURCE: Showcase The Case Study Library for Sustainable Communities, http://showcase.hcaacademy.co.uk