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MARKETING IN 2008:
MarkPlus Whitepaper
This MarkPlus, Inc whitepaper is a collaborative effort amongst MarkPlus Insight (our research arm), MarkPlus&Co (our consulting arm), and MarkPlus Institute of Marketing (our education arm). The whitepaper team has conducted literature/desk researches, field observations, and discussions on the past and future trends with A. Syafii Maarif (politic and social-culture), Ashadi Siregar (literature and lifestyle), Dyonisius Beti (marketing and lifestyle), Eep Saefulloh Fatah (politic), Eric Meijer (telecommunication), Faisal Basri (economy), Roy Suryo (information technology and lifestyle), and Sri Budi Santoso (television media and socialculture). The MarkPlus, Inc Whitepaper Team Editors: Michael Hermawan (Partner,
MarkPlus&Co)
Executive Summary
The first three quarters of the 2007 has exhibited many companies pursuing aggressive growth strategies through marketing innovations. However, the optimism has spurred unprecedented price war in the last quarter of the year. The optimism of 2007 has attracted many players in several mass-market industries such as telecommunication, airline, and retail to initiate a perpetual pricing game. This phenomenon is predicted to continue in 2008. Moreover, the year 2008 will be very much influenced by the upcoming general election 2009. As many experts foresee, any general election in Indonesia is usually preceded with the rise of lower mass market segment. This will further urge the players aiming for market share to push the prices down. Unless the players consolidate to stop the price wars and play a fair game of creativity, the profit margin will continue to deteriorate and the product quality will continue to decline. To lead companies in avoiding this price war traps, 8 creative strategies have been identified to take advantage of the 8 envisioned trends of 2008.
Research Team: Taufik (Chief Executive, MarkPlus Insight) Hasanuddin (Research Manager,
MarkPlus Insight) Layout: Arif Priambudi (BrandCredence)
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Major macroeconomic indicators have shown good performances during 2007, as predicted the previous year. During the first three quarters of 2007, many industry players have grown optimism and have fought harder in securing large market share. Although this is normally a positive sign of growth, it also holds a potential downside. Too much optimism shared across too many players is certain to make the competition more intense. New players are attracted by the growing market, while old players are expanding into new markets. Here is where the danger surfaces: in an attempt to secure larger market share, players are starting to cut prices. Across industries, there have been many noticeable facts during 2007. One of the most relevant one we observed strongly rising during the last quarter of 2007 is the occurrence of price wars, particularly in mass-market industries such as the cellular, airline, and retail (refer to Exhibit 1). As the optimism increases in 2008, the price war phenomenon is predicted to continue in 2008. Exhibit 2 shows several projections of GDP growth for 2008 from various institutions. All but IMF share the same optimism that 2008 will experience a slightly higher growth rate than the year 2007. Furthermore, if we look forward for what awaits after 2008, the national general election is on the top list for anticipation. In anticipating 2009, the political direction will turn to address the interest of the
largest market the mass market. These facts will create a unique composition of dynamics during the year of 2008. The most apparent one is the rise of the lower mass market. The price war and mass market wave are actually closely aligned to one another and reciprocate with one another. As the mass market grows in number and importance, players try to cater them by implanting a quick-yielding low price strategy. Almost always there are other players in the market presenting lower prices for their product offerings. Some for a penetration purpose, thus aiming for market share, while others were able to implant it as a low cost strategy. Though some succeed, competing on price is widely perceived as a vulnerable competitive edge. Those few who do prevail have been proven very difficult to copycat. The most classic reasoning behind it is that the price cut-offs hurt profit margins. And in the long run they can damage brand image. Should there be a tradeoff between pricing and market share? This question causes a dilemma for many players.
8 Dangerous Traps
There are eight reasons why the price war will meet its momentum to accelerate in 2008. These eight reasons would trigger price wars in any normal time and condition. The question is how true is it in each
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Source: Adopted from Faisal Basris summary on the Economic Outlook 2008
industry and how the players are reacting towards it. Most players build a misconception on these eight reasons, thus turning them into eight dangerous traps. The idea is that the players do not have to pursue a price war temptation even though these reasons occur. We observe that many players are lured in the price war simply by affirming these reasons. Trap #1 and 2 are driven by the changes by the global business landscape, trap #3, 4, and 5 are pushed by the competition, and trap #6 is influenced by the customer, while trap #7 and 8 are shaped by companys internal mindset, as seen in Exhibit 3.
but pushes lower production costs. Players should follow the lower cost trend but not necessarily the lower price trend.
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pharmaceutical and cigarettes industry also records a return on assets higher than 14%. Contrary to the facts, players do not necessarily need to cut prices just because a big industry margin. In fact, almost all cigarette players do not use price as means to win competition. They prefer to build their brand around a unique positioning. If players can maintain this margin even when other players are not, they are proving to have a strong competitive advantage over others.
through several financial crisis but has always found a way to obtain financial backups, making them adding an extra pocket to reach in for. Another typical example is in the retail industry with giants like Carrefour holding a strong advantage due to everyday low prices strategy. In the cellular industry, dominant players can gain advantage over smaller players with smaller resources by price cuts and massive promotion budgets. With the enormous financial back-up, deep pocket players can butt out other players who dare to follow their pricing tactics. The interesting fact in Indonesia is that Telkomsel, the market leader in cellular industry does not always communicate its price as the cheapest. One player, Bakrie Telecom, is also using product bundling and low cost channel to gain market share in the CDMA market under their Esia brand.
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bringing sales on a market share orientation. Despite many other short run dimensions overlooked such as profitability, they may also hurt the brand in the long run. We can see how market share has been an over rated value indicator for many companies. In the airline industry we can see how companies are bragging on their low prices in order to acquire and regain market share. When more and more new players enter, they are mostly trying to secure a piece of the market share. A fatal impact hurting the national airline industry was the European flight ban on Indonesian airlines due to strong suspect of below standard flight practices. In the computer industry and automotive for instance, some players are boasting their dominant market share (in terms of a defined sales or revenue) in their advertisements. Chasing market share is a positive activity as long as long term and industry wide interest are also catered. A narrow market share orientation also hurts the competitive dynamics in the market, bringing it more to a price relying competition.
8 Envisioned Trends
To escape from the price war traps in 2008, companies must identify key trends as a result of change factors in technology, political-legal, social-
Change
Trap # 1: Global Deflation due to the China Price Trap # 2: Disruptive Technology
Competition
Trap # 3: Big Industry Margin Trap # 4: Oversupply of Competition Trap # 5 Deep Pocket Price Players
Customer
Trap # 6 Decreasing Purchasing Power
Company
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Technology
Political-legal
Trend # 2 Pro-competition Policy Trend # 3 Decentralization Flourishing
Economy
Trend # 4 Populist Economy to the Bottom of the Pyramid
Social culture
Trend # 5 Rise of i-Express Community Trend # 6 Listening to Rumors versus Finding Facts
Market
Trend # 7 Higher Non-Java Purchasing Trend # 8 Proliferation of Mass Market
cultural, economy, and the market (refer to Exhibit 4). There are eight envisioned trends, each conveying a unique story. These trends will serve as a guideline to discover new market segments, new ways to engage the customers, and new techniques to execute strategies in 2008.
Indonesia is still low in terms of penetration (8.9%), but actually the enabler to use internet has grown stronger with internet kiosks and many medium types, such as Wi-Fi, broadband, and cable. Therefore, all the consumers need is just a little trigger to use internet. Observing the governments initiation to support this through the campaign of internet for rural areas and hotspot set ups in numerous cities throughout Indonesia. Another strong signal from the government is the Palapa Ring project. Upon completion, the new network could provide telephony for and internet services to some 40,000 villages. Take the Indonesia Air Asia online ticketing case for example. With a bit incentive and convenience, the targeted rate of online purchase has been reached and even surpassed.
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typical business organization. There is a building momentum for government political practices to become inspired from business practices. According to Eep Syaifullah Fatah, the participation, competition, and liberalization of people in politics are getting better. The accountability hasnt. Towards globalization and the need for foreign investment, government is aware the drive to push accountability to a higher level. After long deserted, authorities are also enforcing law for merger and acquisition practice. Cross ownerships, a practice not strange for Japanese companies, are heading for investigation. Along the way, more public service obligations are tendered to the private sectors. The government is starting to show discipline and is likely to grow stronger. This will actually encourage a fair competition practice throughout the industry.
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commodity products prices will increase around 10%. This is an effect of the oil price increase. As a result there will be an emerging market with higher purchasing power outside Java.
8 Creative Strategies
As the competition becomes more intense and players are signaling price wars, the importance of marketing will grow even greater. Marketing is a
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Creative exploration
segmentation, targeting positioning
Creative engagement
differentiation, marketing mix, selling
Explore Non-Java Segment Explore the Bottom-of-the-Pyramid Segment Explore the-iExpress Segment
Engage Market by Market Engage with Internet Engage with Word of Mouth & Community
Creative execution
brand, service, process
strategic business concept where companies must lay out their strategy, tactic, and value from a marketing framework. Once the industry experiences a price war, the challenge is actually shifting from focusing on low price products and more on creativity. As it is hard to copycat, creativity is what makes a strong differentiation. Combined with a correct positioning and a strong brand, companies can build ground for escaping from any price war. Creative Exploration: Discover New Market Segments New segments have shown their peek preview during late 2007. Based on the simple segmentation basis and the eight envisioned trends of 2008, we identified three potential segments that will serve as a new market segment in 2008. 1. Explore Non-Java Segment (geographic segmentation) Java has long been the focus of marketing efforts. The logic is that the island comprise of
around 60% of the population. But we must be creative in viewing our market. The population outside Java is predicted to become a very potential growth area. As the people outside Java accelerate their purchasing power, they have become an interesting market segment to target in 2008. The rural markets represent a distinct dynamic in how they come into being and make unique demands on how the product is designed and how the brand is positioned and promoted. The challenge is to reach wide coverage to specific potential areas. Thus, the key here is accessibility. 2. Explore the Bottom-of-the-Pyramid Segment (demographic segmentation) Once viewed as low potential target market, the D and E market segment is actually rising and is predicted to gain better product value. Combined with the C segment, the size of this market is estimated to reach over 185 million people. Despite lower incidence of premium
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product purchases, BOP consumers across all income segments exhibit marked propensity to spend on premium high quality products which are backed by strong brand values, where they correspond to their own aspirations and quality needs. As stated before, this market was the once price oriented segment but have started moving up towards a smarter price oriented segment. The key here is affordability of products. 3. Explore the-iExpress Segment (psychographic segmentation) Exploring deeper into psychographics, one emerging trend in 2008 is the self-expressionist people. They like to talk and form a community of listeners as well as viewers. When we target this segment, we can observe their behaviors in terms of how they spend their spar time and spare money. If we adopt the segments from the VALS survey, the i-Express segment is represented by the experiencers and makers segments. Experiencers are avid consumers and spend a comparatively high proportion of their income on fashion, entertainment, and socializing. Makers live within a traditional context of family, practical work, and physical recreation and have little interest in what lies outside that context. They also prefer value to luxury, thus mostly buy basic products. The key here is catering their lifestyle pleasures. Creative Engagement: Crafting Tactics To engage the envisioned trends of 2008 and cater the new market segments above, we also suggest three tactics in 2008. The tactics consist of marketing mix and selling. 4. Engage Market by Market (marketing mix) The old saying says that each unique market segment requires a customized marketing mix. The shift of the mass market to more rural areas,
particularly outside Java will require companies to do so. Products, place, promotion, and prices must be tailored according to each localized market. The logical reason behind this it that many segment throughout Indonesia sometimes requires a unique offering and access. From our interview with Sri Budi Santoso, a top management for program with Media Nusantara Citra (MNC) Group which holds the largest broadcast coverage in Indonesia, national television stations are preparing to cater more localized flavor in television programs. This is aligned with the governments plan to require national television stations to own a local network in local areas. 5. Engage with Internet (channel, promotion, and selling) With the internet penetration boom next year, companies have to start thinking on how to capitalize on it. To win more market share, companies must activate their channels and selling efforts with the customers buying process. We know that the internet is the relatively the cheapest access channel in the marketing mix place and promotion. Companies should anticipate this trend accordingly. Creating interactive promotion through the internet to target expressionists would be easier for the company. Furthermore, the targeted customers would have much more convenience in accessing it. 6. Engage with Word of Mouth (WOM) & Community (promotion and selling) In order to win the market shares in those respective market segments, companies must customize to their social-cultural trend. People are interacting more through a human network, thus creating network hubs. As more and more people prefer to listen to rumors instead of facts, the community-base selling tactic via word of mouth communication will gain higher
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We believe that 2008 is the year of creativity. In fact, next year is a year full of optimism. After all, in 2008 Indonesia will be celebrating the 100th year of the National Resurgence Day.
effectiveness in 2008. Companies should optimize their bellow-the-line promotion efforts targeting specific network hubs in order to spill the effect to the larger mass market. This has a two fold advantage. First, it can reduce the big bulk of above-the-line promotion. Second, it can target the customers more specifically. Creative Execution: Aim High or Low As the market is polarizing towards high-end and the low-end, companies must aim high or aim low. The execution phase is focused on the mass segment market and the quality oriented market. When we want to target the mass market, we must adopt an efficient cost production strategy. If we target the quality oriented market, we must adopt an experiential service and brand strategy. The execution consists of brand, process and service. 7. Execute with Efficient Cost (to target the entire price oriented segment) In designing and executing the process, companies must pay attention to the quality, cost, and delivery (QCD) elements in it. This means that while pursuing a cost leadership
strategy through cost efficiencies tasks, companies must maintain the quality and delivery level at a proportional level in order to guard their brand image. The retail giant Carrefour is a classic example on how the QCD can create a great execution advantage. 8. Execute with Experiential Service (to target the quality oriented segment) Execution for the quality oriented segment must take a careful design on the service. This segment expects not only a product or service, but an experience. This experience can be delivered not only with a high level of QCD, but must be added with the correct personal touch. Experiential service attempts to connect consumers with brands in personally relevant and memorable ways. This experience allegedly creates a stronger relationship with the consumer. Luxury products such as LouisVuitton bags and the just launched Lexus cars in Indonesia are some examples. Since competing in quality-oriented segment means competing in new market where competitive advantage is gained by offering fashion, many
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brands must position themselves as part of their customers lifestyle. In anticipating the eight dangerous traps, companies should not give up to a price war. As for the eight envisioned trends, companies must understand how the impact will hinder or accelerate their performance. In order to outsmart the competition
in 2008 companies must adopt a creative marketing framework. We believe that 2008 is the year of creativity. In fact, next year is a year full of optimism. After all, in 2008 Indonesia will be celebrating the 100th year of the National Resurgence Day. The momentum couldnt be more perfect to be creative.
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About Us
MarkPlus, Inc is the first integrated marketing solution in Southeast Asia. For years, MarkPlus, Inc has served many privately-owned and state-owned companies, as well as several multinational corporations across virtually every type of industry. We have more than 150 full-time staff across the region, with a large number of them professing as consultants, researchers, trainers, and administrators. Everywhere we practice, we always establish ourselves as the country's local champion in the marketing field.
MarkPlus&Co is the exclusive consulting arm of MarkPlus, Inc. Since 1989, we have emerged as the trusted advisor and, in many cases, change agents in the areas of strategy and marketing to many businesses and institutions in the Southeast Asia region. At MarkPlus&Co, we look at a business holistically, whilst focusing on strategy and marketing. We guide our clients in search of their core strengths, improve their positioning & market-orientation and achieve sustainable growth.
MarkPlus Insight is a respected Southeast Asian-based research firm and the market research arm of MarkPlus, Inc. We are a leading research service provider which promises to provide clients with reliable information and relevant insights, so our clients can enhance their decision-making process. We provide relevant customer insights as opposed to ordinary customer data by using the most recent research approaches together with our strong analytical capabilities to synthesize findings and to develop practical recommendations.
MarkPlus Institute of Marketing (MIM) is MarkPlus Inc's training and publishing division. For 18 years, MIM has conducted trainings and seminars for more than 2000 companies and 20,000 executives through our public and in-house programs across South East Asia. We have virtually served every type of client categories: From consumer goods to manufacturing, from government companies to multinationals.
BrandCredence is the brand & communications consulting division of MarkPlus&Co. BrandCredence has conducted numerous brand research, strategy development, communication planning, design, as well as training and inplementation services for various clients from telecommunications, banking & financials, automotive, fast moving consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, properties, and many other industries. BrandCredence operates in Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, and Singapore.