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3 Regional consultation meeting

Climate change impact and vulnerability in Republic of Korea (ROK)

19 July 2011

Dong kun Lee

Seoul National University

Contents

1. Introduction 2. Literature review 3. The vulnerability of forest field in local governments

3.1. Methods 3.2. Results

4. Conclusion

Introduction

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Introduction
The world is now focusing on the GHG mitigation and climate adaptation strategy In ROK, 15 of August in 2008: Low Carbon, Green Growth vision November of 2009: Voluntary national target for GHG mitigation April of 2010: Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth Climate change is a global issue; national and local governments roles are very important to tackle this issue
ht

Therefore, this presentation contains the general impact and vulnerability of climate change in ROK, and especially focusing on the role of local government.
4

Literature review

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Main results Water resource

Localized heavy rain of 80mm/day or more was 2.2-fold in 1930s, but it increased to 8.8-fold in 1980s.

The damage due to this localized heavy rain were, 170 billion Won ($161 million) in 1970s, and 1,710 billion Won ($1,628 million) in 2000s.

Therefore, the damage increased about 10 times over 30 years.

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Main results Water resource

vulnerability of the flood

vulnerability of the drought

) 9 0 0 2 ,.l a t e i o h C : e c r u o S (

The darker area, which is the southern part of Korean peninsula is vulnerable to flood. For drought, also the darker area, which is the west part of Korean peninsula is vulnerable.
7

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Main results Ecosystem

Rise in temperature and a change in rainfall pattern resulted to a reduction of biodiversity.

Alpine and subalpine plants are becoming extinct, and cold habitat insects are decreasing, but south origin species are increasing.

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Main results Ecosystem

Present forest distribution

Future forest distribution of 2050

Cool-temperate forest , which is in dark green, is decreasing. Warm-temperate forest and sub-tropical forest, which is in green and yellow green color are increasing. 9

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Main results Agriculture

Due to the extreme climate, the damage of agriculture have increased dramatically.

The rise of temperature led to the change in production sites, and potato, fruit and barley are some of these examples.

Especially, the rise of temperature in winter have increased the growth of insects and affected agricultural production(Shim et al., 2008).

10

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Main results Agriculture

Cultivation suitability area of apple

30 years ago

Present

Apple cultivation area

The apple cultivation site moved to the north. Koreas agricultural products were developed to adapt to cold weather, but the climate is getting warmer, and the quality of the production decreases.
11
)9002 ,noitartsinimdA tnempoleveD laruR : ecruoS(

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Main results Ocean

Sea level rises approximately 4.02mm/year, which is higher than the global average of 3.16mm/year.

In the past 55 years, the frequency of typhoon has remained relatively the same, but maximum wind speed and precipitation have increased.

Sea creatures from warmer water, such as squid, have increased, instead of
cihpargonaecO dna cihpargordyH aeroK(

coastal fish, such as mackerel, Pollack and sardines.

)9002 ,noitartsinimdA

12

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Main results Ocean

The rise of 38cm

The rise of 100cm

Coastal erosion spot by increasing sea level

If the sea level rises 38cm, 43.7% of coastal area will withdraw, and if 100cm, 80.1% will withdraw. Eastern coastal area will withdraw less than the western and southern area because they have relatively steep landscape.
13

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Main results Health

Human mortality due to heat wave in 2006 increased to 33.9% for males and 61.7% for female compared to 1993.

The rise in temperature result in air pollution and increase of respiratory diseases.

Hot and humid period, which is from May to September, has higher number of harmful insects, waterborne epidemics and more.
14

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Main results Health

Food poisoning

Weekly average maximum temperature

) 8 0 0 2 ,.l a t e mi K : e c r u o S (

Relationship between weekly average maximum temperature and food poisoning.

The result shows that the increment of the diseases, and this happens more often in big cities, like Seoul, Busan and Gyonggi.
15

The vulnerability of forest in local governments

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Necessity of the vulnerability evaluation in local governments

According to Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth, ROK has issued National climate change adaptation measure for integrated and effective results on climate change. Local governments should make detailed action plan for climate change adaptation However, local government has no experience in making climate change adaptation action plan, national government should support local government by providing guidelines.

17

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Necessity of the vulnerability evaluation of forest in local governments

Climate change is directly and indirectly threatening our lives with landslide due to localized heavy rain, increasing diseases and pest, etc. IPCC AR4 have already proven that climate change is affecting forest ecosystem in various ways. Forest is affected by drought, flood and long-term climate change; therefore, the national government should provide climate change adaptation guidelines to local governments. Developing a tool for evaluating vulnerability that local governments can use is also important.

18

The vulnerability of forest in local governments

3.1. Method

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Forest vulnerability evaluation method : Scope of research

Temporal scope
Present : 2000 (Average of 1996~2005) Future : 2020, 2050, 2100 (NIER, National Institute of Environmental Research)

Spatial scope
232 local governments of ROK

Evaluation scope
Landslide vulnerability due to localized heavy rain Fire vulnerability
20

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Forest vulnerability evaluation method : Variables and formula

Climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation ability were used as index variables in the evaluation.

Index variables

Definition

climate exposure climate change impact, such as, temperature and precipitation sensitivity adaptation ability climate change impact range or vulnerability impact, such as slope soil and condition climate change impact reduction, such as financial support and supporters

Vulnerability evaluation formula which was provided by NIER.

21

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Method of vulnerability evaluation tool development

22

)4991(.l a te revilO ,)0991(.la te te gnoH kraP ,)0102(.la 2 01 2 3

m 0 0 4 n a h t er o M m00 4~ 003 m 0 0 3 n a ht ss e L

ecnerefeR

Vulnerability variations and weight of landslide

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

23
2 2 01 3 3
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t s e r o f s u o r e fi n o c f o a e r a )s e e r g e d(ts er of l a n oi g e r f o e p ol s e g a r e v a . n oi t a ti pi c e r p mumixam fo syad 5

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n oi t a ti pi c e r p yli a d r e m m us n oi t a ti pi c e r p mumixam yli a d n oi t a ti pi c e r p

m m001 n a h t er o M

m m0 01 ~05

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erusopxe etamilC

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e c n er ef e R

Vulnerability variations and weight of forest fire

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

24
01 ) 01 01

3 2 3 2

% 0 4 n a h t er o M 0 0 1 n a h t er o M % 0 5 n a h t er o M 0 5 n a h t er o M

% 04 ~03

% 03 ~02 0 01 ~05 % 05 ~03 05 ~03

% 02 ~01

% 0 1 n a ht ss e L 0 5 n a ht ss e L % 0 3 n a ht ss e L 0 3 n a ht ss e L

ytiliba noitatpadA

)3m/3m(%4.0 n a h t er o M

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)3m/3m(2.0 n a ht ss e L

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a h 0 0 0, 5 n a ht s s e L a h 0 0 0, 5 n a ht s s e L 0 0 3 n a ht ss e L

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e c n er ef e R

Calculating vulnerability evaluation index

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

25
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epols egareva

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The vulnerability of forest in local governments

3.2. Results

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Results of vulnerability evaluation tool development

nd y a bility vit a siti tion Sen pta es. a ad riabl va

27

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Result of present landslide vulnerability

The result of present landslide vulnerability based on the variables

Eastern part of Korean peninsula marked in dark green is the vulnerable area.

Part of Kangwon Province, near the East Sea, mountain area of Northern Kyungsang Province, and part of Daegoo city are relatively vulnerable to landslide.

28

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Results of present landslide vulnerability (present to future)

Present(2000 )

2020

2050

2100

Results show that each region has different vulnerability for landslide. Especially, vulnerability in Kangwon Province increases as time goes by. Its because of large forest area in Kangwon Province, affecting sensitivity variables. Adaptation strategies need to be established by each local government.
29

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Result of present forest fire vulnerability

The result of present forest fire vulnerability based on the variables.

The darker red, East central area is vulnerable.

Inland area of North Kyungsang Province and part of South Kangwon Province are relatively vulnerable to forest fire, and in general, East side of Korean Peninsula is weak to forest fire.

30

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Results of present forest fire vulnerability(present to future)

landslide
Present(2000 ) 2020 2050 2100

Results show that each region has different vulnerability for forest fire. As time goes by, the vulnerability of forest fire decreases because of climate exposure, especially affected by precipitation variation. In the future, Gangwon Province and North Kyungsang Province are continuously vulnerable to forest fire; therefore, an adaptation plan is much in need.

31

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Verification of result : landslide vulnerability

Result of landslide vulnerability(present)

Hazard map of landslide(Yun et al., 2009)

Both images are the modeling result of landslide vulnerability. The right image is the model that was published on the Journal; we used this as our comparison due to the accuracy and credibility of the publication. They are about the same. Therefore, our study result for landslide is reliable.
32

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Verification of result : forest fire vulnerability

Result of forest fire vulnerability(present)

Hazard map of forest fire (Korea forest research institute, 2011)

The right image is the model that was made by Korea Forest Research Institute. It is used to compare our modeling result for verification. Some areas are little different from our result, so more verification process should be done later.
33

Conclusion

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

Conclusion

ROK has limited information about climate change impact and vulnerability, especially in the field of human survival and health. Extensive research and study should be done

in this field.

The results of our research are meaningful to local governments, especially

development of vulnerability evaluation tool. So this study might help local governments in developing decision making process.

Like this workshop, it is very important to share information or methodologies with

each other for each central/local governments to develop comprehensive climate

policies.
35

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References

. Introduction

. Literature review

. Vulnerability of forest field

. Conclusion

36

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