Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia: PRC report

CHEN Wenying Tsinghua University July 19, 2011

Structure of PRCs Report

Chapter 1 National Circumstances Chapter 2 Impacts of and Vulnerability to Climate Change Chapter 3 Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Actions Chapter 4 Climate Change Adaptation Policies and Actions Chapter 5 The Strategy for Addressing Climate Change and Low Carbon Development

National Circumstances
Agro-environment and climatic conditions Economic and social development GHG emissions

Temperature rise

1901-2010

1961-2010

Annual average air temperature has increased by 1.1C during the past 100 years, which was slightly larger than the average global temperature rise. Most of the temperature rise was observed over the last 50 years.

Precipitation change

In the past 100 years, there was no obvious trend of change in annual precipitation in China, but there exists considerable variation among regions.

The frequency and intensity of extreme climate/weather events throughout China have experienced obvious changes during the last 50 years.
8002 4002 0002 6991 2991 8891 4891 0891 6791 2791 8691 4691 0691 6591 8002 4002 0002 6991 2991 8891 4891 0891 6791 2791 8691 4691 0691 6591 02 52 52 03 53 04 54 54 05 05 155 .54 + x4082 .0 - = y 155 .54 + x4082 .0 - = y 55 06

8002 4002 0002 6991 2991 8891 4891 0891 6791 2791 8691 4691 0691 6591 8002 4002 0002 6991 2991 8891 4891 0891 6791 2791 8691 4691 0691 6591

0 01 01 02 03 04 05 05 06 06

8002 4002 0002 6991 2991 8891 4891 0891 6791 2791 8691 4691 0691 6591 8002 4002 0002 6991 2991 8891 4891 0891 6791 2791 8691 4691 0691 6591 0 .0 0 .0 0 .01 0 .02 0 .03 0 .04 0 .04 0 .05 0 .05 0 .06 465 .16 + x1587 .0 - = y 0 .07 0 .08

8002 4002 0002 6991 2991 8891 4891 0891 6791 2791 8691 4691 0691 6591 8002 4002 0002 6991 2991 8891 4891 0891 6791 2791 8691 4691 0691 6591

Extreme climate/weather events

Warm days (Tx90p)

26 .92 + x8404 .0 = y 26 .92 + x8404 .0 = y

Warm nights(tn90p)

Cold days (Tx10p) Cold nights(tn10p)

07 08

0 0 01 02 03 04 04 05 05 06

744 .02 + x7696 .0 = y

07 08

Extreme climate/weather events

80 24

75

70

65

60 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

2006

Change in area-averaged maximum 24h precipitation over mainland China for 1956-2008

Drought in northern and northeastern China, and flood in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southeastern China have become more severe.

Impacts of and Vulnerability to Climate Change

Water resources Agriculture Forest Coastal and Marine Resources Health
-- This chapter will describe observed impacts and also projected impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forest, coastal and marine resources, and health. -- And vulnerability of climate change will be also analyzed.

Impacts of and Vulnerability to Climate Change

Water resources
The section will describe the observed runoff changes of major rivers during the recent 50 years, identify climateinduced runoff change, analyze sensitivity and vulnerability of runoff to climate change based on hypothetical climate scenario and projected GCMs scenario.

2021-20501961-1990 (Wang Guoqing)

Impacts of and Vulnerability to Climate Change

Agriculture
This section assess impacts of climate change on Chinese agricultural production, including impacts on crop yields, crop planting systems, cultivation area, use of pesticide and fertilizers, food security, etc. It will also investigate sensitivity and vulnerability of Chinese food production to climate change. The section will also describe the observed grassland area change during recent 40-50 years, identify the relationship between grass biomass and temperature and precipitation, and analyze the effect of grazing on grassland degradation to assess the vulnerability of grassland ecosystem.

Impacts of and Vulnerability to Climate Change

Forest
This section will assess the impacts of climate change, including extreme events, on structure and function of forest ecosystem, forest fires, forest pests and diseases. The distribution and productivity of vulnerable forest ecosystems, the dynamic changes of forest fire regime, the occurrence intensity, frequency, and distribution of forest pests and diseases in China under future climate scenarios will be also evaluated.

Impacts of and Vulnerability to Climate Change Coastal and Marine Resources

The section will describe the observed impacts on coastal and marine resource including sea-levelrise in coastal area during the recent years. And will analyze sensitivity and vulnerability of coastal system to climate change based on hypothetical climate scenario.

Impacts of and Vulnerability to Climate Change

Health
The section will cover the observed impact of climate change on vector-borne infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases during last 30 years. The most important vulnerability factors to the transmission of those diseases due to climate change will be identification. And prediction on distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases will be projected under GCMs scenario.

(Zhou Xiaonong)

Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Actions

Economic structure adjustment Energy saving and efficiency improvement Development of new and renewable energy Enhance carbon sink Mitigation of GHGs emissions in agriculture sector
- This chapter will describe Chinese governments implemented policies and actions to mitigate climate change and the contribution of these policies and actions to mitigate GHGs emissions during 2005 to 2010. - And Chinese governments planned policies and actions to mitigate climate change in during 2010 to 2015 will also be introduced. - Proposed policies and actions to mitigate climate change in future will also be presented.

Climate Change Adaptation Policies and Actions

Water resources Agriculture Forest Coastal and Marine Resources Health
- This chapter will describe Chinese governments implemented

policies and actions to adapt to climate change. - Proposed policies and actions to adapt to climate change will also be presented.

The Strategy for Addressing Climate Change and Low Carbon Development
National and local strategies for addressing climate change Science and Technology Support Institutional Arrangement Public Awareness

PRC Country Team

Role Lead expert Climate trends Organization 3E, Tsinghua University National Climate Center Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, CAAS Agriculture: impact and adaptation Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Water resources: impact and adaptation Forest: impact and adaptation Coastal and Marine Resources: impact and adaptation Health: impact and adaptation Mitigation: economic structure adjustment Mitigation: energy saving and efficiency improvement Mitigation: Development of new and renewable energy Mitigation: agriculture The Strategy for Addressing Climate Change and Low Carbon Development Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, CAAS Energy Research Institute 3E, Tsinghua University Su Mingshan Huo Hong Zhou Li Guo Shiyi Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute Chinese Academy of Forestry National Marine Data & Information Service Chinese Center For Disease Control and Prevention Han Shenghui Wan Guoqing Zhu Jianhua Chen Manchun Zhou Xiaonong Expert Chen Wenying Ren Guoyu Xiong Wei

Li Yue Xu Huaqing

Progress achieved and time schedule

Contract signed: July 15, 2011 Kick-off meeting: May 19 First draft of report in Chinese available on June 30 First meeting for report review: July 7 Second draft of report in Chinese will be available soon Another 5 rounds of report revision and review meetings planned Final report is planned to be available before Nov 15, 2011

Thank you for your attention

For contact: chenwy@tsinghua.edu.cn