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In this issue ...
Energy Efficiency in Singapores Industrial Sector ................................................ Pg 2 Microgrids: Intelligence and Autonomy Tear Down Hurdles for Next-Gen Systems .............. Pg 3 Microgrids: Delivering Energy Services beyond Electricity ............................................. Pg 6 The Potential of Solar Energy Systems: The Hybrid Photovoltaic Thermal Example ..... Pg 7 Direct Current Networks and Their Relevance to Modern Electricity Usage ........... Pg 8 Drivers of Residential Electricity Demand in Singapore and Implications for Climate Change Efforts ................................................ Pg 10 Recent Events ................................................ Pg 12 ICAE 2001 - International Conference on Applied Energy ............................................... Pg 14 Media Interviews and Contributions ............... Pg 14 Staff Presentations/Participation .................... Pg 15 Staff Publications ............................................ Pg 15 Employee Changes ........................................ Pg 15 New Staff ............................................... Back Cover
The theme of this issue is electricity. Sometimes called the fifth fuel after oil, coal, gas and renewables, energy efficiency is relatively easy and inexpensive and is also beneficial in terms of mitigating climate change and enhancing energy security. Catrina Yeo and Chai Kah Hin address the challenges of energy efficiency in their contribution entitled, Energy Efficiency in Singapores Industrial Sector. Complementing this piece on energy use in the industrial sector, Kenny Goh of the Ministry of Trade and Industry focuses on electricity consumption in Singapore households and has uncovered some interesting findings which may cause us to examine our own electricity use habits. The harnessing of geothermal energy and all the manifestations of solar (photovoltaics, wind, wave, tidal, hydro, etc.) are emerging as alternative ways to generate electricity. However, herding the cats, i.e., harmonising the different systems, which generate synchronous or asynchronous AC (alternating current) or DC (direct current) power, remains a formidable systems integration challenge due to the need to feed such power into legacy grid-systems based on centralised, large-scale power plants. Interest in smaller, distributed generation (DG) systems is on the rise because they can be used in remote, isolated regions and islands, military forward operating bases, and at the ends of weak transmission and distribution (T&D) networks. Diesel-fed gensets have been the predominant source of power in such off-grid situations, but with continuing improvements in renewable power sources (and with the increasing logistics costs of transporting increasingly expensive fossil fuels into remote locations), alternative
energy sources are being integrated with traditional gensets in DG and microgrids. Two contributions here shed light on the increasing global interest in microgrids: one by Paul Marks of the Lockheed Martin Intelligent Microgrid Solutions Team, USA; and the other by Ho Hiang Kwee from DNV, Urban Solutions and Michael Quah. Solar Photovoltaics (PV) is one among a diversity of power sources used in microgrid systems, but often solar panels in equatorial zones of high heat and humidity suffer thermal degradation in performance. Why not run a hybrid solar photovoltaic/thermal system, in which heat on the rear of the panels is plumbed away to provide useful hot water for other applications? Teo Han Guan describes the value of such hybrid systems. Valerie Choy and Michael Quahs joint piece on DC (Direct Current) Networks addresses two interesting aspects: greater efficiency in matching load and supply and new business opportunities for new DC networks within buildings. Several renewable sources provide DC power, which will have to be inverted into AC power and thus losing some efficiency. Why not use the power directly with DC loads? Such new schemes would not only improve energy efficiency in the use of renewable energy, but more importantly, could lead to new business opportunities in components, devices and systems which run off DC power. We hope you find these short essays of interest. We welcome your views and opinions! Michael Quah
Energy Efficiency in Singapores Industrial Sector

by Catrina Yeo, Energy Analyst at ESI (NUS) and Chai Kah Hin, Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering (NUS)
less than half of total energy costs, most manufacturing companies consume energy mainly in the form of electricity. For some industries, energy constitutes a small proportion of total operating costs but their absolute total energy costs are actually relatively high due to high production output. Unlike commercial buildings where much of the electricity is consumed for space cooling purposes, in the industrial sector it is used mainly to drive manufacturing processes and machines such as pumps, and for steam generation. Barriers to Energy Efficiency in the Industrial Sector Semi-structured interviews were conducted with several established manufacturing companies in Singapore. While the majority of the barriers faced by the companies are similar to those reported elsewhere, Singapores manufacturing industry faces other barriers such as space and legacy system constraints. Through the interviews, it was found that energy efficiency technologies were readily available to companies but their fear of production disruptions outweighed their desire to improve energy efficiency by even just 2 to 3%.4 Some companies also reported the lack of financing for energy efficiency improvement projects. Other common barriers such as lack of time and staff awareness were also reported. According to a United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) study, the barriers to energy efficiency can be broadly categorised into (1) lack of management support, (2) lack of information, (3) lack of financing and (4) lack of policies and legislations.5 This categorisation can be applied to the barriers faced by Singapores manufacturing industry. Nonetheless, the interviews showed that different companies faced different barriers (and drivers) to energy efficiency. While all the companies faced barriers in all the abovementioned categories, the dominance of the categories differed. Through the interviews, one interesting area of work was recognised: the relationship(s) of the barriers. It was noticed that companies with stronger management support (category 1) for energy efficiency faced fewer problems gaining access to financial capital (category 3) and requesting manpower for energy efficiency projects, which in turn leads to more information about energy efficiency being available (category 2). It is therefore useful to study the relationships of barriers and the potential domino effects. However, just as the barriers differed among companies, the relationships of the barriers also sometimes differed. For example, smaller companies may lack capital for investment despite strong management support. Energy Efficiency Drivers in the Industrial Sector For most of the companies interviewed, the main driver for energy efficiency is the desire to reduce production costs. It is very clear that the more energy-intensive companies are the most proactive in energy efficiency improvements. They have strong energy management systems and high staff
Energy efficiency is what some call the fifth fuel after oil, coal, gas and renewables and one that addresses the issues of climate change and energy security. Many energy analysts have recognised energy efficiency as the tool with the greatest potential to concurrently address the basic goals of a countrys energy policy: economic competitiveness, energy security and environmental sustainability. Being an alternative-energy disadvantaged country, energy efficiency appears to offer the best solution for Singapore to meet her climate change targets.1 The manufacturing industry is Singapores main energy consumer, accounting for nearly half the nations total electricity consumption from 1986 to 2008. 2 There is tremendous potential to save energy in this sector and increase economic competitiveness through energy efficiency improvements. However, raising industrial energy efficiency has not proven easy. There has been more talking than doing. A great deal has also been written about the barriers to energy efficiency. ESI is currently carrying out a study of Singapores manufacturing industry to assess the potential for energy savings. It involves analysis of Singapores energy consumption data, interviews with companies and extensive literature reviews. It also includes examining the barriers faced by manufacturing companies here. In this article, we discuss some of the preliminary findings of the study. Industrial Energy Consumption in Singapore Over the past eight years or so, the industrial sectors consumption of electricity has increased by a whopping 27%.3 Its share of total electricity consumption is expected to rise further, especially with expansion of the energy-intensive petrochemical industry. Oil refining, petrochemicals and wafer fabrication have the highest consumption. Apart from the oil refining and petrochemical subsectors for which electricity accounts for
ESI Bulletin June 2010 Page 2
awareness about energy efficiency. Another driver is concern for the environment. For example, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) strives for strong corporate social responsibility in terms of environmental sustainability and energy conservation. It does not face some of the common barriers such as lack of management support. Though not a highly energy-intensive company, GSKs management puts high emphasis on energy efficiency and on addressing climate change issues. Four key enablers were identified for GSKs successes in energy efficiency improvements: (1) Making energy consumption a key business metric, where bonuses of senior staff are linked to the achievement of energy reduction targets, (2) Integrating of real-time centralised electricity consumption software into industrial processes and office activities, (3) Raising staff awareness through energy campaigns, visible energy targets and wall posters on energy efficiency projects, and (4) Using a different set of criteria for appraisal of energy efficiency investments, such as allowing a longer payback period. Conclusion To realise the potential of energy efficiency, barriers to energy efficiency must first be addressed. A key barrier is the lack of management support, namely, the common perception among management that the risk to production is too high for energy efficiency investments. Thus, it is imperative to put energy efficiency high on company management
agendas. But this is not a straight-forward task. Some companies believe that government can and should be more proactive in driving energy efficiency improvements in the industrial sector. However, due to the fact that different companies are affected differently by the same barriers, there is no one single policy alone that can be effective. A set of policies and/or variations of the policies are needed due to the heterogeneity of the industrial sector. This set of policies would be a driver of the drivers to energy efficiency and would reduce barriers at the same time. The major barrier that needs to be overcome is the lack of management support, without which progress in energy efficiency will be limited. Despite the barriers, energy efficiency still offers the highest leverage point for Singapore to address economic competitiveness, energy security and environmental sustainability, and the industrial sector has the greatest potential for energy efficiency improvements. Companies like GSK are already showing that the path to energy efficiency can be achieved on a continuous basis, and without sacrificing productivity and product quality.
1
Singapores Sustainable Development Blueprint (see www.sustainablesingapore .gov.sg), published in April 2009, stated the nations aim for a 35% improvement in energy efficiency over 2005 levels by 2030. Announced in light of the UN Climate Change Conference 2009 in Copenhagen (COP-15) was Singapores agreement to reduce carbon emissions growth by 16% below 2020 business-as-usual (BAU) levels, provided there are global agreements and commitments from other countries. Yearbook of Statistics Singapore. Data obtained from the Economic Development Board (EDB) of Singapore. Some well-established (energy-intensive) companies declared that their processes are already more efficient compared to those of their peers and counterparts in neighbouring countries. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Barriers to Energy Efficiency in Industry in Asia, UNEP, Division of Technology, Industry and Economics, 2006.
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Microgrids: Intelligence and Autonomy Tear Down Hurdles for Next-Gen Systems
by Paul Marks, Senior Manager for Business Strategy and Development, Lockheed Martins Intelligent Microgrid Solutions (IMS) Team at Orlando, Florida, paul.marks@lmco.com Jason Heims, Senior Technical Lead, LM IMS Brad Fiebig, Business Strategy and Program Development Manager, LM IMS
A hospital operating table. A military special missions base. A municipal governments data centre. All these depend on a crucial resource to keep operating: reliable power. And they are often tethered to one source to provide it: the utility grid. The grid is something we take for granted, but in the US and many regions of the world, the stable power infrastructure of 15 years ago looks more and more fragile as demand continues to rise and the infrastructure ages with minimal investment in its upkeep and upgrade. Similarly, many of todays contingency and humanitarian operations are conducted in regions with a fragile or nonexistent electrical power infrastructure. In many cases, electricity is provided via diesel generators, which may not be efficiently interconnected nor utilised. Additionally, the logistics requirements to provide fuel for these generators can be quite costly, not including the cost of upkeep and maintenance for the generators themselves. Globally, welldesigned power grids are rare, and rarer still are intelligent controls. Consequently, generators can be both over and underutilised, which significantly degrades fuel efficiency and exacerbates logistics and support requirements. Sub-optimal power grids also affect power surety, as the failure of any node can cut electricity to critical loads at critical times (think military operations, operating rooms and critical communications). Todays challenge is how to address the ever-increasing need for critical power within the constraints of an aging or non-existent infrastructure, while simultaneously reducing dependency on fossil fuel. For many of these challenges, intelligent microgrid technology holds the answer. Intelligent microgrids deliver energy surety by operating a distributed energy system consisting of interconnected loads and distributed energy
Momentum Builds Many nations, including Singapore, Greece, Norway, and the US, have identified microgrids as a critical element in their energy strategy and are investing heavily in microgrid technology and demonstration projects. The US Department of Defence and the Department of Energy have identified intelligent microgrids as an element in the overall formula to achieve energy surety, security and independence and have sponsored several test-bed microgrid projects - both grid-tied and islanded. Singapores Agency for Science, Technology, and Research (A*STAR) is in the process of building an Experimental Power Grid Centre as an incubator for microgrid and smart grid technology, and the Energy Market Authority (EMA) is in the process of soliciting tenders to design, build and operate a microgrid on the island of Pulau Ubin, which will serve as a clean tech test bed for microgrid and distributed energy technology.
Microgrids offer efficient and effective energy solutions for remote and contingency operations with or without an existing grid.
resources (including renewables) that can operate with or without an existing power grid. These intelligent solutions systematically address existing shortfalls and can be configured to capitalise on the indigenous resources with rapid predictive protection and controls. The system can operate interconnected to a bulk power grid or independently in an islanded mode. In case of an emergency, such as the failure of a critical node or loss of utility power, an intelligent microgrid can make critical decisions in microseconds. Smart technology can instantly analyse the situation and route all available power to essential locations, enabling crucial areas to remain operational. To those customers connected to utilities, intelligent microgrids offer the ultimate in energy surety, for those who are far from a power grid, microgrids offer true energy independence. The microgrid concept is not new, as distributed energy has been used for many years to address energy surety or energy independence. Many applications include the use of back-up generators or uninterruptable power supplies. Intelligent microgrids extend the functionality of these systems by including systematic planning, sophisticated controls and intelligent algorithms to add capabilities, including (but not limited to): Autonomous operations with minimal manual intervention Highly reliable design and control schemas for surety applications High power quality for sensitive applications Predictive algorithms for efficient and cost-effective operations Integration of multiple generating sources including renewable energy for energy independence and carbon emission reduction Integration of electrical storage for redundancy, power quality and efficiency The Galvin Electricity Initiative, a leading non-profit firm studying power systems, refers to microgrids as modern, small-scale versions of the centralised electricity system. They achieve specific local goals, such as reliability, carbon emission reduction, diversification of energy sources and cost reduction, established by the community being served. Like the bulk power grid, smart microgrids generate, distribute, and regulate the flow of electricity to consumers, but do so locally. Smart microgrids are an ideal way to integrate renewable resources on the community level and allow for customer participation in the electricity enterprise.1 Indeed, with all these benefits, microgrids are catching on.
This increased interest in microgrid technology has spawned a significant increase in the number of companies entering the distributed generation or microgrid business. In addition to the traditional players in the Power and Energy field, such as General Electric and Siemens, the market potential has attracted interest from a myriad of other large players such as Lockheed Martin, who draws from its dependable history of complex systems integration and sophisticated power systems. This growing mix of developers also includes IBM, Cisco, Honeywell, Raytheon and Singapore Technologies. A handful of smaller companies has also emerged, primarily offering some element of the discriminating technology that will facilitate the promulgation of microgrids through the world. This includes Balance Energy, Pareto Energy, Encorp, Spirae, Valence Energy and Viridity Energy. Barriers Despite the heightened interest, investment and technology developments, there are still significant technological, political and economic challenges when considering intelligent microgrids as a viable solution for our ever-growing energy needs. For all the benefits that intelligent microgrids deliver, scale, technology and power sources prove to be limiting factors for efficient, secure power surety: There are notable research efforts that hold promising advances in microgrid technology, but often the labs where they were developed are the only places where they can function effectively. This is often due to scale. There are few development centres whose solutions can scale up to fit larger systems, and this prevents larger communities from benefiting from the microgrid advantage. Technology also limits many current microgrids. While one can effectively tie loads and distributed energy resources, it is often a manual operation to alter the power flow and direction, and it is reactionary. Autonomy delivers the real advantage, creating a system that can sense, predict and control energy patterns on its own. However, here lie more technology hurdles, because the best designed system needs artificial intelligence in all parts of a microgrid system, encompassing load controls, distributed energy resource output monitors, efficiency ratings and usage measurement. Also, advances in power conversion technologies are required to efficiently and safely integrate multiple types of current and voltage sources onto a microgrid power bus. Todays commercial-off-the-shelf power conversion technologies are designed to integrate with the bulk/utility grid. This imposes strict power quality and operational requirements that have to be modified to operate effectively in a microgrid. With these modifications
come the need for more advanced monitoring and control for fault protection and operational safety. To increase efficiency and reduce carbon emissions, many turn to renewable energy sources. These provide greater grid flexibility and redundancy while decreasing fossil fuel use, all important advantages to any power network. However, renewable energy sources inserted into a microgrid do not necessarily provide the increased efficiency promised to, or expected by many customers. Why? Two reasons: intermittency and large-scale penetration. Most renewable energy sources, primarily solar and wind, are largely intermittent in most geographical locations of the world. Solar occlusions (shading) and inconsistent wind patterns can create instability within the microgrid which could lead to failures and/or equipment maintenance issues. The microgrid design must take these parameters into account to effectively manage these intermittencies while providing sure power at the highest efficiency achievable. Large scale penetration of renewable energy compounds the challenge, requiring effective use of large-scale energy storage systems, which must be accurately selected (size and type) to meet the specific needs of the microgrid. An inaccurate selection of energy storage can be very costly. Even with growing advocacy and activity, intelligent microgrids still must overcome the challenge of economics, especially in those regions where cost of electricity is below 12 to 15 cents per kW (regardless of its reliability or power quality). While some customers may be willing to pay a premium for the surety and security that intelligent microgrids enable, the reality is that the total ownership cost must present a viable business case and compete with traditional generating sources. As such, the cost of critical elements of intelligent microgrid systems-control and protection hardware and software, distributed energy resources (including renewables), inverters/converters and energy storage-must individually approach price points that will encourage a larger competitive market. Political sponsorship and legislative support via subsidies and grants can help bridge this evolution gap, as is being promoted by the Galvin Electricity Initiative in the US. Evolving Solutions Lockheed Martin has found intelligent microgrid solutions that confront the pervasive technical challenges of the microgrid market. Customers need flexible architecture and better intelligent technologies to solve the issues that face microgrid developers, and it all starts with the right research. Development centres must have a mix of software and hardware to make the breakthroughs we need, including hardware that customers use and software that can integrate with existing systems. They are essentially interconnected, and one cannot make an efficient, modern microgrid without taking both into consideration. It is only by understanding and interacting with real customer hardware that control algorithms can accurately monitor, predict and command a grids resources. Several companies and institutions across the world are addressing the technical challenges via their microgrid labs and development centres seeking to address challenges such as: Electrical protection Centralised and distributed control Power quality Synchronisation (especially with inverter based sources) Efficient, flexible and controllable inverters Integration of intermittent resources Integration of storage Fast and secure communications
Some companies have claims, products and patents that appear to address some of these challenges, but given the potential uniqueness of each intelligent microgrid application, there are still significant development challenges that need to be conquered, hence the ongoing research and development at locations such as Lockheed Martins Microgrid Development Center, Spiraes InteGrid Lab, Nanyang Technical Universitys Clean Tech Microgrid Lab, National University of Singapores Microgrid Development Lab, and upon completion, A*STARs Experimental Power Grid Center (just to name a few). Trends predict that market forces and business realities will force collaboration, mergers and acquisitions that should serve to accelerate not only the technological developments, but the awareness and proliferation of intelligent microgrids. Such is the intent of the organisers of the annual Microgrid Symposium, which has seen over a four-fold increase in attendance since the first symposium in 2005 and was forced to limit attendance to invitation only at this years event in Vancouver, Canada due to ballooning interest. These development centres innovate reliable, scalable architecture that, due to the diversity of energy sources in their testbeds, produce very flexible and responsive systems. Many research labs have made great strides in autonomous monitoring and control technologies, which solve a variety of issues related to inefficient microgrid operations. Smart monitoring at both the power loads and sources gives pinpoint insight into each node of the microgrid, and intelligent controls can make autonomous adjustments at specific points to create levels of efficiency never before achieved.
These integrated technologies comprise a flexible architecture, which is key to the scalability and universal relevance of microgrids. Plug-and-play architecture allows a wide array of power source options and system configurations to fit each customer. Flexible intelligent microgrids get rid of the one-size-fits-all architecture and instead deliver customised solutions that take into account the natural environment with renewable energy resources that best fit a customer. By customising their microgrid power solutions, customers can enjoy the highest rates of power surety while minimising their carbon footprint, even without renewables because of the efficiencies created by intelligent controls. Intelligent controls are transforming microgrid systems to deliver economic and power surety advances to a wide range of beneficiaries, including military bases, hospitals, critical infrastructures, campuses, rural and remote communities and islands. Those that can bind all those individual nodes together into a central intelligent control will provide the seamless, secure and efficient microgrids the future demands. Intelligent microgrid systems are part of the efficient and economic solutions that meet the ever increasing global need and demand for reliable, clean and renewable energy.
1
See: http://galvinpower.org/about-us/galvin-electricity-initiative
Microgrids: Delivering Energy Services beyond Electricity

Ho Hiang Kwee, DNV Clean Technology Centre, Singapore Michael Quah, Principal Fellow and Chief Scientist at ESI (NUS)
Our energy needs can be conveniently divided into our diet for liquid fuels (primarily for transportation and the process industries) and our electron diet, i.e., electricity. When fossil fuels run out or become prohibitively expensive as our natural reserves are depleted or when climate change concerns dictate a higher price to carbon dioxide emissions, the primary sources for our liquid diet will have to come primarily from biomass sources from land or bodies of water. Our electron diet, however, can be satisfied by a multitude of options but the diversity of sources for transformation into electricity must be harmonised or appropriately system-integrated into our grid infrastructure. Electricity is the preferred energy carrier in advanced societies. It is needed to power critical computing, transport and communication, manufacturing, healthcare, entertainment and lifestyle activities and technologies in advanced knowledge-based and digital economies. It is clean and relatively easy and efficient to distribute. It can be generated using a wide spectrum of energy conversion technologies utilising different hydro, biomass, nuclear and fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas). It is therefore, not surprising, that the share of primary energy used to generate electricity is expected to increase dramatically across the world, especially for developing countries. The voracious appetite of urban commercial/ industrial developments would normally be satisfied with the current centralised grid infrastructures. But often, rural areas are served last, because building the last mile or kilometre of wire within the T&D (transmission and distribution) network is expensive. Thus, microgrids (either grid-isolated or gridconnected) are becoming a major focus of researchers and proponents in the field of modern power systems. When gridconnected, these microgrids also serve to improve the weak links at the ends of T&D lines. Many microgrid proponents
Power generation technology Heat engines (include diesel, gas turbine, steam turbine and combined cycle power plants) (Heat source is typically from combustion of fossil fuels, but can also be from nuclear power, waste heat sources, solar thermal etc.) Solar radiation to electricity, either through PV or solar thermal power Theoretically achievable efficiency Carnot cycle efficiency (1 - TL/TH). Thus for a heat source of 300C, maximum efficiency is 48%
also expect that developments in microgrids will aid in the development of components of the smart grids of the future. Focusing on the delivery of energy services is an important and well known concept - energy is valuable and important because of the services it provides - in the form of lighting, heating, cooling, transport, communications and manufacturing services, for example. There should be a healthy level of technology-agnosticism in the analysis of how these services should be delivered, both in terms of energy conversion and storage technologies, as well as in energy carriers. The most appropriate energy conversion technology, energy carrier and storage medium would ultimately depend on the nature of the energy service required and the energy resources available. For example, the high cost and inefficiencies associated with wide area distribution of thermal energy compared to electricity and liquid or gaseous fuels is well known. A microgrid serving a relatively small geographical region, is therefore well positioned to deliver a wide variety of energy services through different energy carriers including electricity, thermal (heat and cooling) and chemical fuels, compared to the largely centralised power system already in place in many parts of the world. Power generation technologies are relatively inefficient in converting primary energy into electricity. The use of hybrid power generation systems (e.g. combined cycle power plants) can improve energy efficiency significantly. However, there will still be vast amounts of waste or under-utilised energy that can be used to provide useful energy services in other forms. The power generation efficiencies described in the table below are typical (assuming typical standard ambient conditions):
Maximum achieved in pilot or laboratory scale Typical efficiency for products in market 60% for large combined cycle power plants; 50% for large diesels; 30% for small microturbines.
Carnot cycle efficiency for solar thermal, > 85% for multi-junction solar PV. 25-35% for individual single junction solar cells Ratio of changes in Gibbs energy to enthalpy (G/H), which is about 83% for a hydrogen-oxygen fuel cell
40% for multi-junction cells with concentrated sunlight; 25% for single silicon cell.
15-17% crystalline silicon PV cell efficiency; 7-8% amorphous silicon PV cell. 30-50% for hydrogen-fuelled fuel cells (does not include efficiency of hydrogen production)
Fuel cells (direct energy conversion from chemical energy to electrical power)
Hence, integrated energy systems such as cogeneration, trigeneration and even multi-generation systems should be considered for microgrid systems. Optimising the efficiency (and hence, minimising environmental impacts such as carbon footprint) of such systems requires detailed analysis, and will have to be considered together with other important performance factors such as cost, operability, flexibility, maintainability, reliability, space requirements and dynamic/
time-based characteristics . In cooler climates and in some industrial and commercial applications, distributing heat in the form of hot water or steam would be a natural complement to electrical power distribution to match energy services. Thermal storage could be a better alternative in some cases than electrical charge storage to deal with intermittency in either energy
supply or demand. In Singapores hot and humid environment, the need for heat is somewhat limited for most residential and commercial building applications. However, air conditioning and chiller needs are high - hence there is a huge potential for thermally activated cooling. Heat-driven absorption and adsorption technologies are already being considered in some applications where solar thermal or waste heat is available. However, the low COP (coefficient of performance) of such technologies can often reduce their competitiveness from both a cost and energy perspective. Nevertheless, considering that a large proportion of energy that is used for air conditioning in hot and humid climates is actually used to dehumidify rather than to cool, thermally-activated dehumidification could be even more interesting and economically viable. Ultimately, an exergy-based efficiency analysis approach should be used to assess rational efficiency, and to link the results of that technical analysis with economic analysis to yield practical and commercially viable solutions. An exergy approach would quantify the gains to be made from understanding that different energy forms possess different energy quality and work-producing potential. The value and benefits of microgrids are still being discussed,
with some (such as the Galvin Initiative) considering them as critical to the success of smart grids of the future, while others view their role as being very marginal, especially in places where very reliable grids based on centralised generation are already in place. We contend that the first adopter markets for microgrid developments will be at the ends of the T&D infrastructure and in remote or rural areas. Small island communities or geographically isolated regions will also benefit because renewable energy sources (with almost zero fuel costs) would be utilised thus reducing the logistics burden of transporting fossil fuels into such remote operations. In Singapore, the recent announcements related to the development of the Jurong Island Version 2.0 initiative, which will focus on enhancing both competitiveness and sustainability of the chemical and energy industries on Jurong Island, offer very interesting possibilities for minigrids or microgrids to provide a wider variety of energy services based on multiple energy carriers. There is further potential for an even broader integration and optimisation approach based on industrial ecology that will better manage both energy and material flows in a holistic, cost-competitive and environmentally sustainable manner. Microgrids that go beyond providing electrical power could be central to the development of eco-industrial parks, green eco-precincts and sustainable eco-cities of the future.
The Potential of Solar Energy Systems: The Hybrid Photovoltaic Thermal Example
By Teo Han Guan, Energy Analyst at ESI (NUS)
Global warming has been caused, among other things, by rapid industrial development and the heavy usage of fossil fuels which emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The world is now becoming increasingly concerned about how to meet future energy needs whilst addressing the threats of climate change. Greater emphasis is therefore being placed on alternative and sustainable energy solutions such as solar energy, wind power, hydropower, biofuels and geothermal energy to meet our future energy needs and to resolve the global warming problem, thereby potentially alleviating an energy crisis. Why Solar Energy? Solar energy provides one of the most promising renewable sources of energy. Solar radiation reaches the earths surface at a rate of approximately 80,000 terawatts (TWatt), which is 10,000 times current global energy consumption. By harnessing and converting this free solar energy into day-to-day energy use, the demand for fossil fuels can be greatly reduced. Due to its tropical location, the solar energy potential for Singapore is fairly high. Each day Singapore receives about 4.55 kilowatt-hours per square metre of global solar radiation. Advancements in solar energy research have resulted in the development of thermal collectors and solar photovoltaic (PV) modules which are capable of converting solar energy into heat and electricity respectively. In recent years, the systems have been combined into hybrid photovoltaic thermal systems (PV/T) which are more efficient than the two individual systems. Solar Thermal Collector and Photovoltaic Panel A solar thermal collector absorbs the solar energy and converts it into thermal energy that can be carried by water or refrigerant after passing through the collector which is exposed to solar insulation. In some systems, the heat exchanger is used to extract heat from the fluid which directly passes through the collector. This is to ensure the quality and cleanliness of hot water for certain purposes such as in hospitals and kitchens. On the other hand, a PV module is used to capture the photons from the sunlight and convert them into electricity. In general, there are two kinds of PV systems: stand-alone and on-grid. In the stand-alone system, the excess electricity generated from the PV module can be stored in a battery bank for night or cloudy-day use. The on-grid system routes excess power back into the electric utility grid. Hybrid Photovoltaic Thermal (PV/T) System A hybrid photovoltaic is a combination of photovoltaic and solar thermal systems. It is used to produce both electricity and heat simultaneously. The efficiency of the PV/T system is higher than the individual PV and thermal collector systems. With increased efficiency, the payback period can also be shortened. Moreover, high operating temperatures can decrease the output of a PV module. Thus, using air or liquid to absorb the heat from the PV module can increase the electrical efficiency during operation.
Technical and Economic Comparison of Solar Energy Systems A study was done in the Netherlands to compare the performance and economic feasibility of the different types of solar systems. The results are presented in Table 1, which shows the thermal (Qth), electrical (Qel) and total (Qtot) energy outputs from each system. The energy output for PVT/T systems is the highest among the three, almost doubling that of PV modules and 40% higher than that of solar thermal collectors. For users adopting new technologies, apart from technical efficiencies, cost is another very important consideration. Table 1. Average Energy Performance of Solar Systems
Qth (GJp/yr)/m2 Thermal collector PVT collector PV modules *Qtot=Qth+Qel 1.17 0.87 Qel (kWh/yr)/m2 82** 93 Qtot (GJp/yr)/m2* 1.17 1.63 0.86
The Netherlands study showed that PV/T is less economical than the thermal collector system. However, this can be easily off-set by the narrow applications of thermal collectors which can provide only thermal energy to the household application or industry. While thermal collectors may be used with PV modules to power electrical appliances, industrial machines or even lighting systems, the higher cost of PV modules makes them more attractive than PV/T systems. This cost disparity is even greater in the absence of government subsidies.
**1 kWh=3.6 MJ. Electricity plant efficiency in the Netherlands is 0.39
Source: M.J. Elswijk, M.J.M. Jong, J.N.C. Braakman, E.T.N. de Lange, W.F. Smit, Photovoltaic/Thermal Collector in Large Solar Thermal Systems, 19th European PV Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition held in Paris, 2004.
In short, the results of the study favoured the adoption of PV/T systems. PV modules have been shown to be the most expensive while producing the least amount of useful energy. Thermal collectors on the other hand appear to be Table 2. Results of Economic Feasibility Analysis
Qtot (GJp/yr)/m2 Thermal collector PVT collector PV modules 1.17 1.63 0.86 Component (/m2) 184 610* 375
twice as economical as PV/T systems. However, the 40% lower energy output and the narrow (thermal only) applications make them less desirable than PV/T systems.
BOSth (/m2) 129 162 -
BOSel (/m2) 131 281
Total (/m2) 313 903 656
(/GJp) t=20 yr 14.23 27.70 38.14
*The PVT component costs are based on a batch production Source: See Table 1.
Conclusion The high potential of solar energy as an alternative source of energy has led to the development of various solar energy systems. Of the three discussed in this article, hybrid photovoltaic thermal (PV/T) systems possess the highest potential for future wide-scale application due to their more favourable technical efficiencies and economic competitiveness. Future work should therefore be focused on PV/T systems and their penetration rate into the renewable energy market.
Direct Current Networks and Their Relevance to Modern Electricity Usage

By Valerie Choy, Energy Analyst at ESI (NUS) and Michael Quah, Principal Fellow and Chief Scientist at ESI (NUS)
Electricity as it exists today in our transmission lines and wall sockets is alternating current (AC). The current is often rectified from AC to direct current (DC) for usage in common electronic devices such as laptops and cell phones in the form of AC adapters or wall warts as they are often called. This colloquial term is apt given that AC adapters often protrude from wall sockets as morbid black rectangular objects. Another drawback is that the inefficiencies of the rectification process generate wasted heat which adds to the cooling load of a building. Can we imagine what our homes and offices would be like without wall warts, and DC can be directly drawn from the wall socket into the device? Analysis of the feasibility of such a scenario requires a trip back in history.
In the late 19th century, Nikola Tesla challenged Thomas Edisons mode of electricity transmission and distribution by DC, which was then the standard for the United States, with AC. Unlike DC, AC could be transmitted across long distances from outlying power plants to the cities without excessive losses and its voltage could be conveniently stepped up or down using a transformer. Eventually, with these two important advantages, AC quickly became the new standard for power transmission in the US and around the world even though it had to be additionally rectified to DC for use in practically every modern appliance with semiconductor chips. In adamant response to the limitations of transmitting DC over long distances, Edison suggested locating power generation close to points of consumption in the city, an ambitious undertaking that would not have been successful at a time when power generation meant heavily polluting fossil fuel-fired plants. Also, in order to power appliances with different voltage requirements, a large number of electrical lines had to be built and maintained. This was a strain on financial resources. At the same time, felled power lines also posed a hazard to the community. Since then, much has changed and been made feasible. Locating alternative power generation sources close to points of consumption, or as is known today, distributed generation, and DC to DC voltage conversion are both modern day realities. AC remains the primary choice over DC for transmitting electricity over long distances but its mode of usage in individual buildings may now be altered for new efficiency gains. In a building wired with distributed generation sources such as solar panels and wind turbines, DC generated from these sources has to be inverted to AC to ensure compatibility with the power grid. AC adapters then rectify AC back to DC for use in many electronic devices. A more energy efficient and logical solution for reconciling AC and DC would be to have the rectification process for AC from the power grid built into the building. In this way, DC from distributed generation sources will be compatible with rectified AC from the grid and may be directly linked to a buildings power supply without inversion. Devices can then draw DC directly from the wall sockets without AC adapters. This mode of running DC instead of AC in buildings is known as DC networks. It also allows electrical fixtures such as overhead lighting to be conveniently shifted within a building with no need for re-wiring back into an AC system. In essence, all electrical and electronic components in a building become plug and play. Energy storage devices such as lead-acid batteries that are used as power backup in situations where power reliability is essential may also be better integrated with a DC networked building. Additionally, electric vehicles may be accommodated to reverse supply electricity to a DC networked building in case of a power outage. DC networks have generated substantial savings for data centres which have translated to an approximate 15% increase in energy efficiency. Data centres consist of numerous servers which all run on DC and are similar if not identical in voltage requirements. Switching from AC to DC networks requires several infrastructural changes which involve high capital investments. Buildings have to be retrofitted with rectifiers to convert AC from the power grid to DC. New supporting infrastructure and cables have to be put in place to facilitate DC within the building. Compared to commercial or residential buildings which have a variety of electrical and electronic components drawing AC or DC, data centres are able to better make use of the benefits derived from using DC instead of AC networks. Industry giants such as Google, Sun Microsystems and Nippon Telephone and Telegraph have built data centres based on DC networks.
To make DC networks a more plausible option for consumers in other buildings, electronic device-makers such as laptop manufacturers must be urged to offer consumers power connection cables without the regular AC adapter for those utilising DC networks. Devices such as lighting fixtures,
Figure 1: Current Systems with Multiple Conversions
Figure 2: DC Network with Minimal AC-DC Conversion television and refrigerators, although initially designed in the early days to run on either AC or DC, are now only ACcompatible as DC networks have been obsolete for most of the last century. Hence, new incarnations of such devices are usually not tested for compatibility, performance and safety in DC networks. New standards have to be forged and device construction reworked for the resurgence of DC compatible devices to be possible. LED lighting is an example of a new generation product that runs on DC but still relies on rectifiers when wired to an AC network. Despite these challenges, the development of DC networks for commercial buildings is gathering attention from electrical control-makers, builders and lighting companies. Some of these companies, including Johnson Controls and Philips, have come to form the Emerge Alliance to develop standards for and promote the adoption of DC networks in commercial buildings. The alliance believes that with the increasing contribution of DC from distributed generation sources to the electricity mix of buildings, the switch from AC to DC networks will grow to be more attractive to consumers. The introduction of DC networks also offers opportunities for businesses such as consumer electronics and electrical component manufacturers to create new products. To realise the feasibility of DC networks in commercial buildings, comprehensive cost-benefit analyses have to be made to evaluate whether or not the energy savings derived from using DC networks justify the high capital investments. ESI plans to carry out such studies in the near future. Also, new systems and devices made for DC networks will need to be extensively test-bedded and deemed to be well integrated with each other before widespread commercialisation can take place.
The use of DC networks may offer possible improvements to the current paradigm of electricity usage. Much has evolved in technology and consumer needs since AC was made the de facto standard over DC for transmission and distribution of electricity more than a century ago. More work can be done to ensure todays electricity configurations make the most energy and financial sense for modern systems. To that end, DC networks still require keen evaluation but should no longer be easily dismissed for being inferior to AC networks as the mode of electricity facilitation in a building. The war between Nikola Tesla and Thomas Edison could be resolved in a modern world where these systems are viewed as complementary.
References: Michael Quah, Distributed Generation, Microgrids, DC Networks, Future Fuels, etc, a presentation given at the 4th International Energy Conversion Engineering Conference and Exhibit (IECEC), San Diego, CA, 26-29 June 2006. Michael Quah, The Role of DC Systems in Advanced Mobile Microgrids, a presentation given at the EPRI DC Power Workshop, Washington, DC, 1-2 June 2006. Building Energy Efficient Data-Centres: http://www.sun.com/emrkt/innercircle/ newsletter/0307sponsor.html. Emerge Alliance White Papers: http://www.emergealliance.org/en/resources/ education.asp. Google Uncloaks Once Secret Server: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_310209580-92.html.
Drivers of Residential Electricity Demand in Singapore and Implications for Climate Change Efforts
Kenny Goh, Economist, Ministry of Trade and Industry
Total residential electricity consumption in Singapore increased significantly, by a third, at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.8% between 1999 and 2009. This was in part due to Singapores growing population: the number of households grew 1.8% on average each year1 and partly due to electricity use per household growing at a CAGR of 1.0%.2 These figures are of interest to policymakers involved with climate change mitigation, given that households comprise some 20% of total electricity demand. In this context, this study contributes to the discussion about the drivers of household electricity demand, by measuring how electricity consumption varies Table 1: Regression variables
Variable Average kWh consumption per household Real price Real income (quarterly, time series) Real income (annual, panel) U-Save rebate, real terms Temperature Ministry of Manpower (MOM) Department of Statistics (DOS) Ministry of Finance (MOF) National Environment Agency (NEA) Source Singapore Power Services (SPS) Symbol C P Y Y US TEMP Description Divided by the number of days in each period, to adjust for variations due to longer quarters/years Prices are fixed on a quarterly basis All households face the same rate Average monthly earnings series Average income for various geography-housing type combinations Level terms, as it is zero in some periods Mean daily minimum temperature, which reflects weather influences on air-conditioning use at night
with prices, income, temperature and U-Save rebates.3 Methodology and Results We utilise both a time series and a panel dataset, with variables expressed in log terms, and seasonally adjusted using Census X12 methods. The time series data was available on a quarterly basis from 1998 to 2009, while the panel series was available only on an annual basis from 2004 to 2008 due to the yearly frequency of the income data. Further details about the variables are summarised in Table 1:
The time series results are presented below. Based on Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, we found the variables to be integrated at the order one. A subsequent Johansen cointegration test revealed the presence of one cointegrating
relationship.4 Hence, we adopt an error-correction model, and also use the Singapore High Sulphur Fuel Oil price to instrument for current electricity tariff, to circumvent endogeneity issues.5
Equation 1: Time series, with instruments (p-values in brackets)

Ct = - 4.658 (0.00) + 0.333 Yt-1 (0.00) +0.004 USt-1 (0.71) + 1.522 TEMPt (0.00) + 1.790 TEMPt-1 (0.00) - 0.872 Ct-1 (0.00) - 0.053 Pt-1 (0.06)
Adj. R2 = 71.30%
We also ran fixed-effects and dynamic panel regressions. However, some of the independent variables - income and temperature - were not available on a household-level basis, and may not achieve sufficient granularity for accurate
estimates. Hence, the coefficients for these variables should be seen as indicative. The regressions are presented below to complement the time series approach.
Equation 2: Panel series, fixed effects

Cit = - 15.481 (0.213) + 0.223 Yit (0.29) + 6.660 TEMPt (0.05) + 0.057 USit (0.02) - 0.102 Pt (0.09)
Overall R2 = 26.25%
Equation 3: Dynamic panel series

Cit = - 24.286 (0.09) - 0.197 Pt (0.00) + 0.362 Cit-1 (0.13) + 0.224 Yit (0.50) + 8.643 TEMPt (0.03) + 0.021 USit (0.00)
Do Prices Matter? Our study finds household electricity consumption highly inelastic to prices - for every 1% increase in the electricity price, consumption falls by only 0.06-0.3% in the long run. This falls in the lower-end of various international estimates of -0.04 to -2.3 (Espey, 2004), and is also smaller than a 1972-1990 estimate of -0.35 for Singapore (Ang, 1991). This could arise because electricity expenditure forms only 1.3% of household income.6 Potential savings might be small relative to similar efforts on other fronts. For instance, a punishing 50% reduction in electricity use would free up only 0.65% of household income, but cutting down on holidays by half - painful no doubt, but probably less so would free up at least 1% of household income.7 On one hand, this might imply that electricity consumption decisions are based on rational cost-benefit considerations. On the other hand, market failures might be present. Households might be unaware of simple electricity-saving steps. Principle-agent problems might exist for leased premises, where rents are fixed regardless of the electricity bill. For example, a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (Davis, 2010) found that home renters in the US are less likely to purchase energy efficient appliances. There are two ways to approach market failures, with respect to carbon reduction. The first is to eradicate the market failure, for instance through information provision, to facilitate proper demand response to prices. The second is to allow the failure to persist, but use a range of policy tools to approximate the rational household purchasing decision taking into account climate change objectives. Sensitive to Heat Secondly, we find electricity consumption highly sensitive to temperature fluctuations. This is reinforced visually in Figure 1 which plots the quarterly variation in electricity consumption against temperature. Warmer temperatures lead to more intensive use of air-conditioners, which in turn means increased electricity consumption. While this is not surprising, more interesting is the strong demand response - a 1% temperature increase leads to a 2-14% rise in electricity usage in the long run.8 This suggests that temperature aspects of electricity usage - for instance incorporating ventilation considerations in home designs - could be an effective focus for conservation efforts. Figure 1: QoQ Changes in Temperature and Electricity Consumption
Figure 2: Ownership has Increased for Most Electrical Appliances
Not Rushing to the Socket We also estimate the income elasticity of demand at about 0.33; still inelastic, but larger than the price response.9 Higher incomes lead to greater ownership and use of electrical appliances. Indeed, real earnings grew 10% in 2008 over 2003, and the proportion of households owning various electrical appliances rose for most appliances (see Figure 2) (usage data not available).10 This demonstrates that households do not entirely spend the next dollar received directly on electricity. For instance, households may choose to save a portion of an income increase, or spend it on other goods and services. This has implications for financial assistance schemes for households. Suppose low income households are more greatly impacted by a climate change policy, and require some form of financial assistance.11 However, if implemented through product specific channels - for instance a large, regular electricity rebate with a use-by date - households can potentially be locked into less-preferred consumption baskets. This means that households might be made better off through simple lump-sum transfers that do not constrain purchasing decisions. A related concern is whether U-Save rebates (utilities credits for HDB households) create such constraints. If so, we might expect it to increase electricity consumption, running against carbon mitigation efforts. However, the evidence is mixed the U-Save coefficient was significant in the panel studies, but not the time-series regression. Nevertheless, we highlight that certain aspects of the U-Save mechanism might dampen electricity consumption increases. Firstly, the quantum of the rebate changes regularly, and this uncertainty might restrain households from making irreversible appliance purchases that would otherwise be unsustainable without the rebate. Secondly, it is also possible that at current levels, the USave amount does not exceed average spending on utilities. Lastly, U-Save credits can be rolled over indefinitely, and there is no urgency for households to completely use them. Conclusions The price elasticity of electricity demand has been found to be small, possibly due to its small share in the overall household expenditure basket, as well as potential market failures. Research on the latter, however, is largely untapped
in Singapore, and there is scope for further study. In comparison, the demand response to temperature fluctuations is much larger, and there is potential for conservation efforts on temperature-related fronts. Thirdly, an increase in income elicits a less than proportionate rise in electricity consumption. The implication is that transfers, if channelled through specific product channels, could lock households into sub-optimal consumption patterns because households do not spend the entire income gain on electricity. However, we note that certain features of the existing USave scheme - its irregular quantum, the option to roll over, and its not exceeding the household electricity bill - could have had dampened this to a large extent. B.W. Ang, T.N. Goh and X.Q. Liu, Residential Electricity Demand in Singapore, Energy, vol. 17(1), 2004. L. W. Davis, Evaluating the Slow Adoption of Energy Efficient Investments: Are Renters Less Likely to Have Energy Efficient Appliances?, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 16114, 2010.
J. A. Espey and M. Espey, Turning on the Lights: A MetaAnalysis of Residential Electricity Demand Elasticities, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, vol. 36(1), 2004. C. A. Grainger and C.D. Kolstad, Who Pays a Price on Carbon?, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 15239, 2009.
1 2 3 4 5 6
10 11
Proxied by the number of electricity accounts. Based on SP Services data. Based on determinants identified in an earlier study by Ang, Goh, and Liu (1991). Unit root and cointegration test results are available upon request. Data obtained from Bloomberg. Based on the 2007/08 Household Expenditure Survey at http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/hhld/hes2007.pdf Based on the 2007/08 Household Expenditure Survey, Ibid. Holiday expenses (excluding accommodation) amount to 2% of household income. The large range could be a result of data gaps for the panel regression where the country-wide temperature average was used. Based on time-series results. Panel results are indicative because aggregated income data, instead of household-level figures, were used. Data obtained from the 2007/08 Household Expenditure Survey, op.cit. For example, see Grainger (2009) for further evidence on the regressive nature of carbon and energy price effects.
Recent Events
Inaugural ESI-ISEAS Ambassadorial Series (France)
The first of the ESI-ISEAS Ambassadorial series took place on 24-25 May at the National University of Singapore. The event was hosted jointly by ESI, the French Embassy in Singapore and the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. More than one hundred people attended from various energy-related organisations and embassies. The French Ambassador, His Excellency Olivier Caron, gave insights into Frances advancements in nuclear energy and alternative energy technologies, as well as the governments strong commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. He spoke of the close ties between France and ASEAN in terms of clean energy solutions and the abundant technical and engineering knowhow which his country and the European Union could provide to help meet the rapidly growing demand for electricity in ASEAN. The lectricit de France (EDF) Corporation has found ways to generate electricity almost completely free of CO2 emissions. This is obviously a key selling point. To dispel doubts concerning the safety and viability of nuclear energy solutions, both Mr Jean-Christophe Philbe, Director of EDFs South Asia Division and Dr Selena Ng, AREVAs Director of Asia-Pacific Development, emphasised their commitment to safety standards and transparency in nuclear energy operations. Mr Desmond Wong, General Manager of Business Development, Wearnes Automotive Group at Renault noted that while a great deal had been written about the coming of the electric vehicle (EV) to the Asia Pacific market, little has been done with respect to the infrastructure necessary to transform the private transportation market into an electric one. At the moment, improving energy consumption efficiency seems to be the most practical low-hanging fruit for countries aiming to reduce emissions. The long term interest in renewable energy sources has prompted the French government to invest more than 35 billion Euros in subsidies and loans to industry in the hope that green-collar jobs will be created through industrial policy. The Indonesian energy representative, Dr Djoko Prasetijo, Head of the Systems Planning Division at PT PLN, Jakarta, offered a stark picture of the energy challenges facing his home country, with only 35% of the population having access to electricity. Indonesia has fulfilled several key International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) requirements for nuclear energy generation but still has a long way to go in terms of securing manpower resources. The countrys first nuclear power plant was to be sited in Central Java. However, local
residents and green activists have strongly opposed the plans on the grounds that Java Island is a heavily populated and seismically active area. The only island in Indonesia that is not potentially affected by earthquakes is Kalimantan Island and the governing board of uranium-rich West Kalimantan has already agreed to build a nuclear power plant there.
Dr Michael Quah and H.E. Olivier Caron
Malaysias nuclear ambitions appear to be progressing steadily with an aggressive tertiary education policy for nuclear engineers and the construction of a reactor by 2020. Concurring with the AREVA and EDF representatives, Dr Shahidan Bin Radiman Chairman, School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia emphasised the need for Malaysia to develop transparent nuclear safety architecture with increased public awareness of the implications of the project. At the close of the conference, Dr Francisco G Delfin, Jr, Vice-President of Petro-Energy Resources Corporation, Pasig City, Philippines stated that the region needs to take collective action on nuclear safety issues while moving gradually towards implementing civilian reactor technology. With some countries in the region planning to build nuclear infrastructure in the coming decades, the ability of each ASEAN member to remain transparent and accountable with regards to safety is becoming ever more urgent. It is hoped that a trans-ASEAN nuclear energy safety (NES) regime will be fully operative when the regions reactors come online. Initial attention should be devoted to technical co-operation related to accident/emergency response, human capital and regulatory build-up, and then eventually legal frameworks.
ESI-ISEAS-Shell Special Seminar

On 9 June, Mr Nick Allen, Vice President for Downstream Management Consultancy and CO 2 discussed Shells strategy towards a sustainable future. According to Mr Allen, Shell has identified four main areas of focus in response to the CO2 challenge. They foresee an increasing demand for natural gas, a cleaner fuel as compared to oil; biofuels as a
main contributor to the transport fuel mix; increased development of carbon capture and storage technologies; and improvements in energy efficiency. Among the four strategies, energy efficiency appears to the near term focus. Of particular mention is a package of innovations dubbed Smarter Mobility, introduced by Shell that is aimed at speeding up the global shift to cleaner, more energy-efficient road transport. Through Smarter Mobility, Shell can help its customers in the three following ways: Smarter Products are fuels, lubricants and plastics, etc, that make transport more efficient through fuel efficiency and creation of lighter vehicles. Smarter Use promotes and educates customers about more efficient ways to drive and increase fuel efficiency. Smarter Infrastructure aims at developing more energy efficient global road transport infrastructure, such as designing a process to produce and lay asphalt at lower temperatures. When posed a carbon tax versus carbon cap-and-trade question by Dr Tilak Doshi (Chief Economist at ESI), Mr Allen indicated a preference for a market mechanism to address the carbon emission issues.
ADB sees the ASEAN region as truly active in its quest for more energy (and water) projects; The ADB Board, while recognising the rapid increase in energy needs, has made the decision NOT to participate in nuclear power projects in ASEAN possibly resulting from anti-nuclear sentiment among some European interests; The ADB projects also tend to focus on mid-range to large-scale projects, such as the Greater Mekong hydro projects and they see the small distributed generation projects as more within the interests of NGOs and other CSOs.
A smaller group continued discussions with Jeremy Hovland over lunch.
The Implications of New Climate Change Policies in the United States

On 7 May, Mr. David Pumphrey, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), discussed the current status of the debate on energy and climate legislation in the United States and prospects for the passage of new energy and climate laws. The current energy system in the US is unsustainable due to increasing fuel demand coupled with more concentrated supplies, the abundance of high carbon fuels, market volatility and changing geopolitics.
Audience in rapt attention
Micro-Grids: Energy Network Roadmap to Sustainability, Security, Reliability and Ubiquity

On 19 May at ESI, Mr. Laszlo Lakatos-Hayward, Chief Technology Officer of AEG Power Solutions, explained that a micro-grid is a localised power grid connected to various distributed power generation sources, often renewable energy sources, with lower carbon footprints than fossil fuel sources. The current centralised grid design no longer fits with load patterns. Also, centralised power generation with fossil fuels increasingly faces financial, social, environmental and ownership pressures. To overcome these challenges, an architectural transformation is needed to run micro-grids in parallel with a centralised grid. Micro-grids may be employed for a wide range of applications such as for military purposes, financial and data storage fields and rural electrification. In separate instances, they can help to improve security, privacy, power independence, quality, reliability and quality of life. In a nutshell, micro-grids provide enabled freedom to do anything, anywhere, any time at an acceptable cost. AEG believes that customers want choice, whether for economic or security reasons. The distributed generation networks that micro-grids enable can provide that choice.
Audience in rapt attention
To tackle this issue, the Obama administration has introduced several initiatives on energy and climate change, including energy related spending through the stimulus package and the introduction of vehicle efficiency and GHG standards. However, a comprehensive climate bill has not yet been passed through the Senate due to skepticism about climate change science, fear of high energy prices and concerns about economic competitiveness. This has negative implications for international climate change negotiations,
General Strategy and Framework for Energy Projects in ASEAN and Asia
On 11 May, Mr. Jeremy Hovland, the Chief Counsel for the ADB in Manila, stopped in Singapore on his return to Manila from an international meeting in Tashkent (on a personal visit to Michael Quah, as they are old college classmates.) Michael asked Jeremy to participate in an informal roundtable discussion on ADB programmes in energy/environment/ sustainability in the ASEAN region. The following key points were addressed in a very interactive meeting:
Mr David Pumphrey with seminar participants
since without a climate bill the US can neither make a binding commitment to a global treaty nor contribute significantly to climate financing. In addition, Mr. Pumphrey introduced the energy program of CSIS, which seeks to balance climate change and security objectives for the US, and described a report prepared by CSIS and the World Resources Institute (WRI) for the Obama Administration that made recommendations on how the US can transition
to a low carbon economy. The presentation was followed by a roundtable discussion that focused on the near-term prospects for the climate bill and other climate initiatives (such as incentives for renewable energy) in the US, and looked at reasons why reaching an international agreement on climate change has proved so difficult.
ESI Forum with Dr. Jay Hakes

On 5 May, three speakers, including Dr. Jay Hakes from the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum, Dr. Michael Quah from ESI and Mr Lee Eng Lock from Trane Singapore spoke at length on the various energy solutions they hope to see adopted. The common message is that our energy problems are looming and more can be done. As Dr. Hakes succinctly explained, there is no silver bullet but there are many silver buck shots to the worlds energy problems. Hybrid engines, algae biofuel, more efficient public transportation systems, energy-saving LED lighting and nuclear power are all part of a multi-prong solution.
According to Dr Quah, however, technology is a necessary but totally insufficient condition for our energy solutions. Boosting energy efficiency involves not just infrastructural changes but also requires robust policies and a healthy dose of common sense. Mr Lee and Dr. Quah believe that any system that is locally optimised is globally sub-optimised and vice versa. There is no miracle recipe for energy efficiency. New systems-based thinking and different strategies to promote energy efficiency have to be adopted and adapted to national/regional practices.
Dr. Jay Hakes is seated third from the left
ICAE 2010 - International Conference on Applied Energy

April 21-23, Singapore hosted the second ICAE with the theme Energy Solutions for a Sustainable World. Last year, the inaugural ICAE was held in Hong Kong and next years will be held in Perugia, Italy. The Journal of Applied Energy is an internationally refereed journal that was launched in 1975 and is now published every month. It publishes original research on innovation, research, development and demonstration in the areas of energy conversion and conservation, the optimal use of energy resources, analysis and optimisation of energy processes, mitigation of environmental pollutants, and sustainable energy systems. Its impact factor is a very healthy 2.208, up from 1.371 in 2008. ESIs chairman, Ms Chan Lai Fung (she is also Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Law and the Ministry of Finance, as well as Chairman of the Singapore Energy Market Authority) opened the conference which aimed to forge dynamic networks among academia, industry and government. With over 200 papers submitted, participants from over 30 countries made presentations on clean and renewable energy, low carbon and sustainability, climate change mitigation, technology development and test-bedding, systems integration and energy consultancies. Bridging the gap between energy technologies and policies, a special issue of Applied Energy will soon publish about 50 of the best papers presented at the conference.
Media Interviews And Contributions

Tilak Doshi, Renewable Energy, at What Price?, Straits Times, 6 July. Michale Quah, interviewed by Mediacorp on Saving Gaia, broadcast on 16 June. Tilak Doshi, Goh Keng Swee, the Practicising Economist, Business Times, 16 June. Hooman Peimani, interviewed by Channel News Asia on The European Union and the Euro Zones Financial Crisis, broadcast 10-11 June. Michael Quah, quoted on Channel News Asia on South Asia Eyes Nuclear Energy to Meet Power Demand, 9 June. Dickson Yeo, Valerie Choy and Michael Quah, Re-thinking Nuclear Energy for a New Generation, Straits Times, 28 May. Michael Quah, Nuclear Power without Fear, South China Morning Post, 22 May. Dickson Yeo, Valerie Choy and Michael Quah, Re-thinking Nuclear Energy for a New Generation, on nuclearstreet.com
at http://nuclearstreet.com/blogs/nuclear_power_news/ archive/2010/05/21/re-thinking-nuclear-energy-for-a-newgeneration-05213.aspx, 21 May. Valerie Choy and Catrina Yeo, Our Energy Future Demands Action Today, on eco-business.com at http://www.ecobusiness.com/news/2010/may/10/our-energy-futuredemands-action-today-valerie-choy/, 10 May. Hooman Peimani, interviewed by Channel News Asia on Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Weapons, broadcast 22-23 April. Hooman Peimani, interviewed by Channel News Asia on China-US Relations and Energy Security, broadcast on 8-9 April. Hooman Peimani, interviewed by Channel News Asia on The Economic Strategies Committees Proposals Pertaining to Ensuring Energy Resilience in Singapore, broadcast 9 February. Hooman Peimani, New Threats, World Pipelines, vol. 10, no. 4, April 2010.
Staff Presentations/ Participation

30 June, Hooman Peimani presented, Irans Rise as a Regional Power: Implications for the Balance of Power in West Asia and the International System, at the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 30 June, Michael Quah presented, Food and the EnergyWater Nexus: Some Challenges, at the Expert Panel on Challenges that Cities Face: Nexus of Energy, Water and Food Security, World Cities Summit 2010, Singapore. 25 June, Hooman Peimani presented, China and Iran: Energy Security Cooperation, but Not Much More, at the East Asian Institute, NUS. 23 June, Michael Quah presented, Energy/Environment/ Sustainability - From Buzzwords to Business Opportunities, lecture to the Energy Committee of the American Chamber of Commerce at the AmCham Executive Office in Singapore. 20 June, Michael Quah presented, Alternative Energy: Technological and Economic Challenges in Commercialisation, lecture for the Bayer Eco-Camp 2010, Prince Georges Park Residences, NUS. 16 June, Michael Quah presented, Energy Security, Environmental Sustainability, Economic Development: Balancing the Triangle, to the Rotary Club of Singapore. 9 June, Michael Quah moderated, ESI-ISEAS Shell Special Topics Seminar by Nick Allen, at ISEAS. 6-8 June, Tilak Doshi participated in a panel presentation for The Roundtable - Carbon Agenda, at the 15th Asian Oil & Gas Conference (AOGC), organized by Petronas, Kuala Lumpur. 4 June, Tilak Doshi presented a concept paper on The Asian Premium - Perceptions and Reality, to the Energy Study Group Inception Meeting on Dealing with Energy Vulnerabilities: Case Studies of Cooperation and Collaboration in East Asia, at the Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, RSIS, Singapore. 3 June, Michael Quah presented, Some Thought Joggers for Business Development in Alternative Energy in Penang, at the Second Penang Forum, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore. 2 June, Tilak Doshi presented, Background on Emissions Ranking and Indicators, at Briefing for Dr. Mohammed AbdulGhaffar, Advisor for Diplomatic Affairs to the King of Bahrain. 12 May, Hooman Peimani presented, Fossil Energy and the Challenging Powers in a Multi-polar World: Tactical or Strategic Grouping of Iran, India, China, Brazil and Russia, at the British Petroleum Team meeting in Singapore. 21-23 April, Elspeth Thomson chaired the Renewable and Green Energy Resources and Technologies/Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development and Policy for Sustainable Development sessions at the International Conference on Applied Energy held in Singapore. 21-23 April, Teo Han Guan presented, Experimental Investigation of Active Cooling of Photovoltaic Cells, at the International Conference on Applied Energy held in Singapore.
21 April, Tilak Doshi was a panellist at a conference on Global Innovations in Energy: How Business is Addressing Climate Change, held by the Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina. 15 April, Tilak Doshi presented An Asian Global-City Perspective on Climate Change at a seminar at Harvard JFK School of Government.
Staff Publications
Hooman Peimani, The Asia-Pacific Region as the Largest Energy Consumer: A Temporary Phenomenon or a Strategic Shift, Northeast Asia Energy Focus, vol. 7, no. 2 (Summer 2010). Hooman Peimani, Challenging Power to the West: Irans Rising as a Regional Power, Perspectives, no. 008, published by the Middle East Institute at NUS, July 2010. Michael Quah and Dickson Yeo, Urban Transportation for a Vibrant and Distinctive Singapore, Journeys, issue 4, May 2010, pp. 42-51. Rodolfo C. Severino, Elspeth Thomson and Mark Hong, Southeast Asia in a New Era: Ten Countries, One Region in ASEAN (Singapore: ISEAS, June 2010), 281pp. ISBN 978-981-230-957-0.
Employee Changes
Dr. Michael QUAH Cheng-Guan, Principal Fellow and Chief Scientist of ESI was appointed Professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at NUS, effective 1 July 2010. He will continue his work at ESI as well as at NUS Enterprise, where he is an Executive Advisor.
Contribution of Articles
The ESI Bulletin on Energy Trends and Development is a quarterly publication. It seeks to inform its readers about energyrelated issues through articles on current developments. Our contributors come from ESIs pool of researchers, local and overseas education and research institutes, local government agencies and companies in the private sector. You may download past issues from http://www.esi.nus.edu.sg/portal/. We welcome your feedback, comments and suggestions. Should you wish to contribute articles to our forthcoming issues, please contact Ms Jan Lui at esilyyj@nus.edu.sg. The views expressed in each issue are solely those of the individual contributors. ESI reserves the right to select suitable contributions for publication.
Contact
Contribution of Bulletin Articles Collaboration as a Partner of ESI (research, events, etc) Media Enquiries ESI Upcoming Events
Ms Jan Lui esilyyj@nus.edu.sg
New Staff
Deputy Executive Director Yap Chin Siang is currently the Director for Policy and Planning, Energy Planning and Development Division, Energy Market Authority. His key role is to guide the unit in: (a) developing into, and functioning as the Singapore governments leading knowledge specialist on energy matters, (b) serving as the authoritative source on Singapores energy data, and (c) playing an active role in shaping Singapores energy policy and strategies. Prior to his assignment at the Energy Market Authority with effect from June 2009, Mr Yap was Director, Northeast Asia in the Ministry of Trade & Industry. During his time in MTI, he was responsible for formulating and implementing Singapores plans to engage the Northeast Asia region on the economic front. This included promoting Singapores interest through bilateral engagements as well as within the framework of regional fora like ASEAN and APEC. Mr Yap graduated from the University of Cambridge with a Bachelor of Arts in Economics (2nd Upper) in 1991. Prior to rejoining the Ministry of Trade & Industry in July 2006, Mr Yap had spent 9 years in banking, spanning across global financial institutions such as Citibank, Standard Chartered Bank and ABN AMRO Bank. Head (Corporate) Peter Yap started to work in 1977 after graduating from the University of Singapore with a Bachelors degree in Mechanical Engineering with 2nd class honours. He received his MBA from the National University of Singapore in 1986. He was the first recipient of the Reginald Quahe memorial gold medal for being top of his graduating class. He has worked in various industries including: machine tools, glass-making machines, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), hard disk drives and power quality. He specialises in the operational part of businesses viz. manufacturing, warehousing and distribution. His marketing experience covers contract manufacturing as well as agency representation for FMCG. In 2004, when he had his mid-life crisis, he spent 8 months working pro-bono for a half-way house for recovering drug addicts to set up and streamline their administrative systems. He rejoined corporate life in 2005. In 2007 he was sent to head a Malaysian operation in Kuala Lumpur. Having completed the turnaround of the Malaysian operation, he returned to Singapore in January 2009. His overseas working experience includes: Cincinnati, Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh and Kuala Lumpur. Peter is married with 3 sons and 2 grandsons. Energy Analyst Alvin Chew holds a Bachelor of Science (Economics) and a double major in Actuarial Science from Singapore Management University. He joined the Energy Studies Institute in May 2010. His current research interests focus on Asian gas trade dynamics and the natural gas industries. Prior to joining ESI, he had an internship with the Ministry of Finance (MOF). He was attached to the Economic Programmes Directorate, Economic Strategies Department. At MOF, he oversaw a study on patient capital financing for small medium enterprises and produced draft versions of the concept paper. In addition, he proposed a research framework for the study of the Singapore Governments assistance schemes for businesses. Valerie Choy holds a Bachelor s Degree in Chemical Engineering (2nd Upper Honours) with a minor in Technopreneurship from the National University of Singapore. Prior to joining ESI, Valerie worked as a Technology Investment Analyst at NanoHoldings LLC, a venture capital firm specialising in new energy technologies, based in Connecticut, where she monitored the progress of two NanoHoldings portfolio companies, developed business plans and identified new investment opportunities. During her undergraduate years, Valerie took on internships at ESI and NanoGram Corporation, located in Silicon Valley, California. At ESI, she aided country studies on energy diversification strategies and carried out research on the renewable energy landscape in ASEAN. At NanoGram, her research led her to be credited as the first inventor of a US patent application for composite pigment nano-particles developed for the printing industry. Her research interests are in Alternative Energy Distributed Generation.
Energy Vibes Blog

ESI has launched a blog called Energy Vibes at www.energy-vibes.com. It provides an informal platform for discussions on subjects pertaining to energy/environment/sustainability. Expect regular contributions from ESI staff, its affiliates and other guest writers. All queries about the blog may be directed to info@energy-vibes.com. We look forward to your feedback and active participation. More details in the next issue of the Bulletin!
Energy Studies Institute National University of Singapore

29 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, Block A, #10-01 Singapore 119620 Tel: (65) 6516 2000 Fax: (65) 6775 1831 Email: esilyyj@nus.edu.sg http://www.esi.nus.edu.sg
If you would like to be put on our mailing list or know someone who should be on it, please write to Ms Jan Lui at esilyyj@nus.edu.sg.
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In this issue ...

Energy Efficiency in Singapores Industrial Sector

ESI Bulletin June 2010 Page 2

ESI Bulletin June 2010 Page 3

ESI Bulletin June 2010 Page 4

ESI Bulletin June 2010 Page 5

Microgrids: Delivering Energy Services beyond Electricity

ESI Bulletin June 2010 Page 7

**1 kWh=3.6 MJ. Electricity plant efficiency in the Netherlands is 0.39

BOSth (/m2) 129 162 -

BOSel (/m2) 131 281

Total (/m2) 313 903 656

(/GJp) t=20 yr 14.23 27.70 38.14

Direct Current Networks and Their Relevance to Modern Electricity Usage

ESI Bulletin June 2010 Page 8

Figure 1: Current Systems with Multiple Conversions

ESI Bulletin June 2010 Page 9

Equation 1: Time series, with instruments (p-values in brackets)

Equation 2: Panel series, fixed effects

Equation 3: Dynamic panel series

Figure 2: Ownership has Increased for Most Electrical Appliances

ESI Bulletin June 2010 Page 11

Dr Michael Quah and H.E. Olivier Caron

ESI-ISEAS-Shell Special Seminar

A smaller group continued discussions with Jeremy Hovland over lunch.

The Implications of New Climate Change Policies in the United States

Audience in rapt attention

Micro-Grids: Energy Network Roadmap to Sustainability, Security, Reliability and Ubiquity

Audience in rapt attention

Mr David Pumphrey with seminar participants

ESI Forum with Dr. Jay Hakes

Dr. Jay Hakes is seated third from the left

ICAE 2010 - International Conference on Applied Energy

Media Interviews And Contributions

Staff Presentations/ Participation

Ms Jan Lui esilyyj@nus.edu.sg

ESI Bulletin June 2010 Page 15

Energy Vibes Blog

Energy Studies Institute National University of Singapore

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