Distribution of the Sample Mean

What you will learn: 1. Describe the distribution of the sample mean from normal populations. 2. Describe the distribution of the sample mean from populations that are not normal. Sampling Distributions Statistics are considered random variables because they vary from sample to sample. The is a probability distribution for all possible values of the statistic computed from a sample of size n. There are two sampling distributions which we will look at in this class: the sampling distribution of the sample mean and the sampling distribution of the sample proportion.

Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean The is the probability distribution of all possible values of the random variable computed from a sample of size n from a population with mean and standard deviation . To obtain the sampling distribution of the sample mean: 1. Obtain a simple random sample of size n. 2. Compute the sample mean. 3. Assuming we are sampling from a finite population, repeat Steps 1 and 2 until all distinct random samples of size n have been obtained.

Example 1: Suppose a graduate math class has five students enrolled. Their ages are given below. 42 25 24 31 28 (a) Compute the population mean and standard deviation. = =

(b) List all samples of size one, two, three, four, and five. Compute the sample mean for each sample. n=1 Mean n=2 42 31 42 28 25 24 Mean 36.5 35 24.5 n=2 25 31 25 28 24 31 24 28 31 28 Mean 28 26.5 27.5 26 29.5

n=3 42 25 28 42 24 31 42 24 28 n=5

Mean 31.667 32.333 31.333 42 25 25 42 24

n=3 31 28 24 31 24 28 31 28 31 28

Mean 33.667 26.667 25.667 33.667 27.667

n=4 42 25 31 28 42 24 31 28 25 24 31 28

Mean 31.5 31.25 27

Mean

(c) Compute the sample mean and standard deviation of distribution of the sample mean.

(d) Compare the mean and standard deviation of the population to the mean and standard deviation of the distribution of the sample mean. The mean of the distribution of the sample mean is to the mean of the population. The standard deviation of the distribution of the sample mean is the population standard deviation. Mean and Standard Deviation of the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean Regardless of the distribution of the population, the sampling distribution of will have a mean equal to the mean of the population and a standard deviation equal to the standard deviation of the population divided by the square root of the sample size, i.e. = and = . The standard deviation of the distribution of the sample mean is referred to as the . With larger samples, the sample mean is more likely to fall closer to the population mean. As the sample size n increases, the denominator increases, the standard error .

The Shape of the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean If a random variable X is normally distributed, the distribution of is normally distributed. o If the population distribution is approximately normal, then the sampling distribution is approximately normal for all sample sizes. Even if the X is not normally distributed, the shape of the distribution of the sample mean still becomes approximately normal as the sample size n increases (Central Limit Theorem).

o The sampling distribution of the sample mean takes more of a as the random sample size n increases. o The more skewed the population distribution, the larger n must be before the shape of the sampling distribution is close to normal. In practice, the sampling distribution is usually close to normal when the sample size n is .

For large n, the sampling distribution is approximately normal even if the population distribution is not. This enables us to make inferences about population means regardless of the shape of the population distribution.

Example 2: The distribution of weights of milk bottles is normally distributed with a mean of = 1.1 lbs and a standard deviation = 0.20 lbs. (a) What must be true regarding the distribution of the population in order to use the normal model to compute probabilities involving the sample mean? In order to use the normal model to compute probabilities involving the sample mean, the distribution of weights of milk bottles must be or we must take a sample of bottles.

(b) Assuming that the distribution of weights of milk bottles is normally distributed, describe the sampling distribution of for a sample of size n = 5. If the distribution of weights of milk bottles is normally distributed, then the sampling distribution would be with mean = and standard error = . (c) Assuming that the distribution of weights of milk bottles is normally distributed, determine the probability that the mean of a random sample of five bottles will be greater than 0.99 lbs.

P( > 0.99) = (d) Assuming that the distribution of weights of milk bottles is normally distributed, determine the probability that the mean of a random sample of ten bottles will be greater than 0.99 lbs.

P( > 0.99) = (e) Compare the results of part (b) and (c). What effect does increasing the sample size have on the probabilities? Why do you think this is the case? Increasing the sample size the probability because .

Example 3: An automobile insurer has found that repair claims are approximately normally distributed with mean = $920 and a standard deviation of = $870. Suppose a random sample of 12 repair claims is taken. (a) The sample size n < 30. Will the sampling distribution be approximated distributed? Why?

(b) Describe the sampling distribution of . The sampling distribution would be with mean = and standard error

(c) What is the probability that the average of the 12 claims is larger than $900? P( > 900) = (d) What is the probability that the average of the 12 claims is $950 or less? P( 950) =

Distribution of the Sample Proportion

What you will learn: 1. Describe the sampling distribution of a sample proportion. 2. Compute the probabilities of a sample proportion. Sample Proportion Suppose that a random sample of size n is obtained from a population in which each individual does or does not have a certain characteristic. The , denoted , is given by where x is the number of individuals in the sample with the given characteristic and n is the sample size.

Example 1: In simple random sample of n = 200 college students, 154 stated that their send and receive text messages with their cell phone. Find the sample proportion of individuals surveyed who send and receive text messages with their cell phone. The sample proportion is Distribution of a Sample Proportion The shows all possible values and the probabilities for those values. For a simple random sample of size n with population proportion p, the sampling distribution of the sample proportion has the following properties: o As the size of the sample increases, the shape of the sampling distribution of the sample proportion becomes . As a general rule, we say that the shape of the sampling distribution of is approximately normal when np(1 p) 10. o The of the sample proportion equal the population proportion, i.e. . o The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample proportion decreases as sample size increases. The standard deviation of is called . It is given by the formula

o A requirement for sampling distributions of is that the sampled values must be independent of each other. We can verify independence by checking that the sample size is less than or equal to 5% of the population size, i.e. n 0.05N. Example 2: A simple random sample of n = 1,500 is obtained from a population whose size is N = 2,000,000 and whose population proportion with a specified characteristic is p = 0.38.

(a) Describe the sampling distribution of . The sampling distribution of is approximately normal because and . The sampling distribution of has mean = and standard error . (b) What is the probability of obtaining x = 800 or more individuals with the specified characteristic? = P(x 800) = (c) What is the probability of obtaining x = 500 or fewer individuals with the specified characteristic? = P(x 500) = (d) Would it be unusual if fewer than 150 have the specified characteristic? = P(x < 100) =

Example 3: A report released in May 2005 by First Data Corp. indicated that 43% of adults had received a phishing contact. A random sample of 800 adults results in 328 indicating that they had received a phishing contact. Explain why this is not necessarily evident that the proportion of adults who have received a phishing contact has decreased. = P(x 328) =