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GLOBAL WARMING For scientific and political disputes, see Global warming controversy, Scientific opinion on climate change

and Public opinion on climate change. For past climate change see Paleoclimatology and Geologic temperature record. For the Sonny Rollins album see Global Warming (album).

Global mean land-ocean temperature change from 1880-2010, relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The black line is the annual mean and the red line is the 5-year running mean. The green bars show uncerainty estimates. Source: NASA GISS The map shows the 10-year average (2000-2009) global mean temperature anomaly relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The largest temperature increases are in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula. Source: NASA Earth Observatory [1]

Fossil fuel related CO2 emissions compared to five of IPCC's emissions scenarios. The dips are related to global recessions. Data from IPCC SRES scenarios; Data spreadsheet included with International Energy Agency's "CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2010 - Highlights"; andSupplemental IEA data. Image source:Skeptical Science Global warming is the continuing rise in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Global warming is caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting from human activities such as deforestation and burning of fossil fuels.[2][3] This finding is recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries and is not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.[4][5][A] The instrumental temperature record shows that the average global surface temperature increased by 0.74 C (1.33 F) during the 20th century.[6] Climate model projections are summarized in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.5 to 1.9 C (2.7 to 3.4 F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 3.4 to 6.1 C (6.1 to 11 F) for their highest.[7] The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[8][9] An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and a probable expansion ofsubtropical deserts.[10] Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of

glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall

events,species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional changes is uncertain.[11] In a 4 C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.[12] Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space. The main international mitigation effort is the Kyoto Protocol, which seeks to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference".[13] As of May 2010, 192 states had ratified the protocol.[14] The only members of the UNFCCC that were asked to sign the treaty but have not yet ratified it are the USA and Afghanistan.

Temperature changes

Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions from climate proxies, each smoothed on a decadal scale, with theinstrumental temperature record overlaid in black. Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.[15][16][17][18] The most common measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged

temperature near the Earth's surface.[citation needed] Expressed as a linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74 0.18 C over the period 19062005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13 0.03 C per decade, versus 0.07 C 0.02 C per decade). The urban heat islandeffect is estimated to account for about 0.002 C of warming per decade since 1900.[19] Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 C (0.22 and 0.4 F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Climate proxies show the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.[20] Recent estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National Climatic Data Center show that 2005 and 2010 tied for the planet's warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 19th century, exceeding 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[21][22][23] Current estimates by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998 with 2003 and 2010 tied for third warmest year, however, the error estimate for individual years is at least ten times larger than the differences between these three years.[24] TheWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) statement on the status of the global climate in 2010 explains that, The 2010 nominal value of +0.53C ranks just ahead of those of 2005 (+0.52C) and 1998 (+0.51C), although the differences between the three years are not statistically significant[25] Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Nio in the past century occurred during that year.[26] Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.[27][28] Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 C per decade against 0.13 C per decade).[29] Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.[30] The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not

contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.[31] The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 C (0.9 F) would still occur.[32] External forcings

Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2).

This graph, known as the "Keeling Curve", shows the long-term increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from 1958-2008. Monthly CO2 measurements display seasonal oscillations in an upward trend; each year's maximum occurs during theNorthern Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO2. External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as radiative forcing due to changes in atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations), changes insolar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[33] Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and at present are in an

overall cooling trend which would be expected to lead towards an ice age, but the 20th century instrumental temperature record shows a sudden rise in global temperatures.[34] Greenhouse gases Main articles: Greenhouse gas, Greenhouse effect, Radiative forcing, and Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[35] Naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 C (59 F).[36][C] The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36 70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9 26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4 9 percent; and ozone(O3), which causes 3 7 percent.[37][38][39] Clouds also affect the radiation balance through cloud forcings similar to greenhouse gases. Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750.[40] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[41][42][43][44] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.[45] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.[46]

Over the last three decades of the 20th century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[47] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[48][49]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. The two figures opposite show annual greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2005, including land-use change. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue.[50]:93[51]:289

Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments.[52] In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced.[53][54] Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century.[55] Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, models suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm.[56]This is an increase of 90-250% above the concentration in the year 1750. The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with the ozone hole, i.e., the destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons.[57][58] Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.[59] Ecological systems In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.[18] Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs.[101] It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by
[104]

higher

atmospheric

CO2 levels,

combined

with

higher

global

temperatures.

Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many

species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.[105]

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