Impact of the Crisis on Bangladesh The Bangladesh economy proved to be very resilient to the fallout from the global

l financial crisis with GDP growth in Financial Year (FY) 2009 declining only to 5.9% from 6.2% in FY 2008. GDP growth is expected to be 5.5% in FY 2010. Two important factors are responsible for such low volatility in Bangladesh growth rate: o Resilience of Bangladeshi exports, partly due to Walmart effect where demand for lower cost items increases during recessionary conditions in importing countries; and o Strong inflow of remittances. The overall impact of the global financial crisis has been subdued in Bangladesh also because there has been no major private investment in the power sector since 2002. And arguably, if there had been private sector investments, these would have borne the brunt of the Crisis. Public and Private Sector Investments Power sector allocation in the governments Annual Development Plan of Bangladesh increased in the wake of the global financial crisis. In FY 2010, the power sector allocation went up to $442 million from $386 million in FY 2009 (an increase of over 14% in nominal terms). For FY 2011 the announced allocation is $880 million. Multilateral financial institutions have tried to increase the allocation of resources to Bangladesh. A recent initiative has been additional funding support to the Infrastructure Promotion and Financing Facility (IPFF) of $257 million approved in May 2010 by the World Bank. This initiative is expected to increase infrastructure supply in the power sector renewable energy and energy savings as well as other sectors. Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL) provides long-term senior and subordinate debt financing to viable privately-owned and operated infrastructure projects in Bangladesh. Recent developments include Government contribution of an additional $350 million in local currency to IDCOL for project financing. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is currently conducting due diligence prior to making $165 million in funding available to IDCOL; this amount could be increased to $500 million. In addition, the ADB recently made a direct infusion of $50 million into IDCOL without the requirement of a Ministry of Finance repayment guarantee. Local commercial banks provide loans with a maximum tenor of 5-7 years and generally require equity of 25 % - 35% of total project cost. Loan amounts are typically of small size with limits imposed by Bangladesh Bank on single party exposure. Syndications and club

financing are the favored means to increase pooled finance, but it has been estimated that projects in excess of $70-100 million would be difficult to finance locally (largest syndication to date is $57 million) especially in the current market environment. Overall, there are limitations in domestic sources of finance not only in terms of quantum, but also in terms of cost of finance and tenor.
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The Crisis has impacted (generic impact) access to foreign bank lending in a number of significant ways. Syndication markets have dried up and many banks have retreated to their home markets or exited the market altogether. The banks that remain in the market have significantly less appetite for risk than they had in the pre- Crisis period. This low risk appetite is manifested in the following: o Experienced, credit-worthy sponsors: Lenders are focusing, in particular, on the long-term ability of sponsors to provide necessary funding, credit support, and technical expertise. o Strong commercial structure: Projects with a contracted, credit-worthy revenue stream are being favored over those that are exposed to merchant risk or rely on non-investment grade off-takers. o Government support: For those projects in which the government acts as a counterparty, strong support evidenced through guarantees is crucial to attract lender attention. o Stricter financing terms in the form of shorter tenors, increased interest rates (one lender estimated that margins on debt would be well above 400 basis points over LIBOR), and stronger covenants in terms of lower debt-equity ratio. Prior to the Crisis, it is likely that a larger number of international lenders to Independent Power Projects (IPPs) in Bangladesh would have been willing to lend on the basis of a mix between comprehensive6 and political-only cover. However, post-Crisis, it appears that very few would be willing to lend without comprehensive cover. Equity funding: There are two listed private power generation companies in Bangladesh Summit Power and the recently listed Khulna Power Company. While the power sector, including transmission and distribution companies, was trading at around 19x price-earnings

(P-E) ratio, Summit Power was trading at 79x P-E ratio and Khulna Power at 62x P-E ratio in mid-2010. High investor demand and attractive valuations suggest the latent potential of equity funding of power projects in Bangladesh even in the current market environment. While international bond markets are a source of financing for major infrastructure projects such as IPPs, high levels of perceived political and commercial risk and the lack of a government bond benchmark are likely to make the international bond markets inaccessible to a Bangladesh-based IPP currently. Obtaining senior debt with tenors greater than 15 years will be a challenging task in the current environment and will require risk mitigating instruments and mechanisms. In this regard, there would be a need for support from multilateral/ bilateral financial institutions in
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Comprehensive coverage refers to a guarantee or an insurance policy from an Export Credit Agency (ECA) that covers default by a borrower due to instances related to either political or commercial risk.

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the form of credit enhancements. Thus, in projects costing over $70-100 million, one or more multilateral lending agencies (such as the World Bank, IFC, ADB, CDC and JEXIM) would have to be involved both through providing direct financing and through risk mitigating instruments like Partial Risk Guarantees backstopping payment obligations of less credit-worthy offtakers like BPDB. This would be in addition to a Government of Bangladesh Guarantee to the commercial lender. One of the key lessons about the impact of the Crisis on developing economies is the need to have a balance between international and local financing for energy projects. Bangladesh enjoys an annual savings surplus (Gross National Saving - Gross National Investment) of around 5% of GDP or $ 4.5 billion. A key challenge in addressing Bangladeshs electricity crisis is to channel this domestic private sector capital into infrastructure financing. Insurance and pension reforms and development of corporate bond market are both medium-term strategies for channeling long-term domestic savings into infrastructure investments. Overall, the impact of the global financial crisis on Bangladesh power sector can be summarized as below:

o There are limitations in domestic sources of finance not only in terms of quantum, but also cost of finance and tenor. o Larger IPPs will require international finance and support from multilaterals. o The Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) will require tariff adjustment for domestic currency depreciation, inflation, and fuel price increase. o Foreign sponsors and financiers will need a government guarantee of the PPA, backed with a Partial Risk Guarantee from multilaterals. o This increases the contingent liabilities of the government and makes the project risk-free for the private sector. But, this may be necessary for Bangladesh to be able to attract IPPs in the current environment. o Increased funding through budgetary support/ IDCOL and IPFF financing would be required to make up for shortfall in commercial financing. Conclusion: Role of multilateral institutions in the changed economic environment Box 1 gives a snapshot of the role of multilateral institutions in the changed economic environmentBox 1: Role of multilateral institutions in the changed economic environment The importance of multilateral financing has increased because of the global financial crisis. One, multilaterals increase the quantum of available finances for investment in the power sector. Two, they provide risk-mitigating instruments (like Partial Risk Guarantee). And three, their presence in a deal can provide other financiers (both debt and equity) with the needed confidence to invest in the country and sector. World Bank Response to the Global Financial Crisis The World Bank designed the Infrastructure Recovery and Assets (INFRA) Platform as its infrastructure response to the Crisis. INFRA Platform: Supports counter-cyclical spending on infrastructure to: o Provide the foundation for rapid recovery and job creation; and o Develop a robust base for economic growth. Brings priority focus on infrastructure investments and maintenance; and Provides a platform for Multilateral Development Banks and International Financial Institutions to work together to leverage finance. In FY 2009 the World Bank Group provided $21.6 billion of countercyclical financing for infrastructure sectors 30% higher than in FY 2008 (IBRD/IDA: $18.3 billion, above the INFRA target of $15 billion/year, and leveraged an additional $30.3 billion; IFCs lending

and equity commitments totaled $3.2 billion, leveraging $22.1 billion dollars from other sources; MIGA provided $108 million in guarantees). A study commissioned for this report to examine financing of power sector projects in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh in the aftermath of the global financial crisis found that multilaterals can help through the following specific measures: Payment guarantees for government utility payments (credit risk of the revenue providers/ offtakers is clearly a much greater perceived risk in Bangladesh than in India or Pakistan); Greater involvement of World Bank Group in structuring project documentation, providing consulting services and market information to companies both prior to and after the investment has been made; Pre-financing of sponsors equity commitments during the construction phase; Support for sector reforms and greater transparency.
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