Almond Orchard Water Stress and Climate Change in the Central Valley

University of North Carolina at Charlotte

Lauren Slawsky

Dr. Susan Ustin Shawn Kefauver

Overview

Why Almonds?

No Soil Adjustment Resilient to climate change

VIT Trapezoid

Water Stress Irrigation Schedule PET with Thornthwaite Eq.

Regions of Interest

Climate Change

Future Research

Vegetation Index/Temperature Trapezoid

Direct link between Transpiration and Plant Thermal Response allows use of TIR measurements for monitoring and managing plant ecosystem health

Plant water stress between foliage and air temperature

NDVI=(NIR-Red)/(NIR+Red) Surface Temperature from atmospherically corrected MASTER image Thermal IR Band 43 (8.6450m) Air Temperature from CIMIS

7/1/2010: 31.167C 6/30/2011: 26.78C

Moran. 2000.

Scatter Plots
Ts-Ta vs. NDVI July 1, 2010
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

Ts-Ta vs. NDVI June 30, 2011

Surface Temperature Air Temperature (C)

Results

A slope of -0.0246 is more negative than -0.0232

When water is the limiting factor, the Ts-Ta vs. NDVI correlation is negative A steeper slope on July 1, 2010 means greater water stress than on June 30, 2011 (8F air temperature difference)

Higher temperatures lead to greater plant water stress

Almonds are at or above their optimum temperatures in their current climate Soil water availability depends on precipitation, irrigation, and potential evapotranspiration

Irrigation Schedule

Region of Interest Separability

2010: Least Separation (1:0); Most Separation (1:3, 0:3) 2011: Least Separation (2:1, 4:3,); Days Since Watered 1day 2010PM(L) 2011PM(R) Most Separation (2:0, 1:3, 1:4, 1:0) 0days 2days

3days 4days

Difference between years in plots to be irrigated day-of the DC-8 overpass

Climate Change

Global climate models run using various emission scenarios Overall hotter and drier conditions with greater competition for limited water supplies

Reduced snowpack and chilling hours Lengthened growing season and increased pest pressures Greater climate change stresses projected for the San Joaquin Valley

Brunello et al. 2009.

Thornthwaite Equation

A simplified version of the Penman-Monteith equation that estimates monthly Potential Evapotranspiration
PET = 1.6(10T/I)a
I = (T/5)1.514 a = 6.75x10-7I3 7.71x10-5I2 + 1.79x10-2I + 0.49

Using anticipated temperature change max and min values with a base of the July 2010 average maximum air temperature 95.5F (32.278C)
2050

+2F +5F

97.5F (36.389C): PET = 6.3152in/month 100.5F (38.056C): PET = 6.6696in/month 99.5F (37.5C): PET = 6.5483in/month 104.5F (40.278C): PET = 7.1846in/month

2100

+4F +9F

Conversion for Irrigation Applications

Need to convert inches/month to acre-feet/day July 2010 average max air temperature 95.5F (32.278C) where PET = 5.5469in/month 0.1789in/day = 0.01491feet/day
31 days 12 inches

~40,000 acres of Almonds at Paramount Farms = 596.4469 acrefeet of water needed per day for health/yield similar to that of July 2010

Future Irrigation Applications

+2F 2050 +5F 596.4469 acre-feet/day 0.01793 ft/day 596.4469 acre-feet/day 0.01698 ft/day

= 35,126.44 acres

= 33,265.30 acres

+4F 2100 +9F

596.4469 acre-feet/day 0.01760 ft/day

= 33,889.03 acres

596.4469 acre-feet/day 0.01931 ft/day

= 30,887.98 acres 40,000 30,887.98 = 9,112.02 acreage loss

Future Research

VIT Trapezoid can be used for comparison of morning data

Apply to OTHER CROP TYPES along with Thornthwaite Equation

Will be impacted by climate change more so than Almonds, some wont be able to be grown in the Central Valley in the future

Use irrigation schedule to classify image and find which pixels (if any) are water stressed or even over-watered

Water conservation

Efficient agriculture irrigation techniques

when, how much, uniformity of irrigation

Water stress indices have been computed from this scheme and applied at large spatial scale for crop monitoring and water management

Conclusions

Almonds are more water stressed and have a greater evapotranspiration rate when subjected to hotter temperatures. The Almonds of Paramount Farms were under greater water stress in 2010 than in 2011. Water stress is relative on a well-regulated orchard like Paramount Farms. Based on July 2010 irrigation, over 9000 acres of Almond orchard may be lost by the year 2100 due to temperature change alone.

References
Brunello, Tony, and Kurt Malchow et al. State of California. 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy, 2009. Web. 15 Jul 2011. CIMIS website, California. Hourly Report. Belridge: Station 146, 2011. Web. 12 Jul 2011. <wwwcimis.water.ca.gov/cimis/hourlyReport.do>. Courault, Dominique, Bernard Seguin, and Albert Olioso. "Review on estimation of evapotranspiration from remote sensing data: From empirical to numerical modeling approaches." Irrigation and Drainage Systems 19. (2005): 223-249. Web. 6 Jul 2011. Hayhoe, Katharine et al. "Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California." Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 101.34 (2004): 12422-12427. Web. 13 Jul 2011. <www.pnas.org/cgl/dol/10.1073/pnas.0404500101>. Juhwan, Lee, Steven De Gryze, and Johan Six. "Effect of Climate Change on Field Crop Production in the Central Valley of California." California Climate Change Center CEC-500-2009-041. (2009). Web. 15 Jul 2011 Karnieli, Arnon, Nurit Agam, Rachel T. Pinker, Martha Anderson, Marc L. Imhoff, Garik G. Gutman, Natalya Panov, Alexander Goldberg, 2010: Use of NDVI and Land Surface Temperature for Drought Assessment: Merits and Limitations. J. Climate, 23, 618633. Web. 7 Jul 2011. <http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2900.1> Kefauver, Shawn C. "Global Climate Change Effects on Plant Uptake of Atmospheric Ozone." ESP 110. 15 Mar 2005. 2 Jul 2011. Lobell, David B., C.B. Field, K.N. Cahill, and C. Bonfils. "Impacts of future climate change on California perennial crop yields: Model projections with climate and crop uncertainties." Agriculture and Forest Meteorology 141. (2006): 208-218. Web. 15 Jul 2011. Luedeling, Eike, Minghua Zhang, and Evan H. Girvetz. "Climatic Changes Lead to Declining Winter Chill for Fruit and Nut Trees in California during 1950-2099." PLoS ONE 4.7 (2009): n. pag. Web. 15 Jul 2011. <www.plosone.org>. Moran, M. Susan. "Thermal Infrared Measurement as an Indicator of Plant Ecosystem Health." 21 Jun 2000. USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center. Web. 6 Jul 2011. Peacock, Bill. "San Joaquin Valley Table Grape Seminar." Grape Notes, University of California, and Tulare County Cooperating 3.1 (2006): 1. Web. 20 Jul 2011. Sandholt, Inge, Kjeld Rasmussen, and Jens Andersen. "A simple interpretation of the surface temperature/vegetation index space for assessment of surface moisture status." Remote Sensing of Environment 79. (2002): 213-224. Web. 8 Jul 2011. Snyder, R.L., M. Orang, K. Bali, and S. Eching. "Estimating ET from CIMIS data using Modified Penman-Montieth Equations." CIMIS (California Irrigation Management Information System). Regents of the University of California, April 2007. Web. 20 Jul 2011. <http://wwwcimis.water.ca.gov/cimis/welcome.jsp>.

Acknowledgements

Shawn Kefauver SARP Mentor

Dr. Susan Ustin SARP Faculty Advisor Dr. Emily Schaller, Dr. Rick Shetter SARP Program Dr. Nick Clinton Atmospheric Corrections Kirsten Siebach Conversions

Questions?