Population growth refers to change in the size of a populationwhich can be either positive or negativeover

time, depending on the balance of births and deaths. If there are many deaths, the world's population will grow very slowly or can even decline. Population growth is measured in both absolute and relative terms. Absolute growth is the difference in numbers between populations over time; for example, in 1950 the world's population was 4 billion, and in 2000 it was 6 billion, a growth of 2 billion. Relative growth is usually expressed as a rate or a percentage; for example, in 2000 the rate of global population growth was 1.4 percent (or 14 per 1,000). For every 1,000 people in the world, 14 more are being added per year. Population exceeding the carrying capacity of an area or environment is called overpopulation. It may be caused by growth in population or by reduction in capacity. Spikes in human population can cause problems such as pollution and traffic congestion, these might be resolved or worsened by technological and economic changes. Conversely, such areas may be considered "under populated" if the population is not large enough to maintain an economic system. Between these two extremes sits the notion of the optimum population. For the world as a whole, population grows to the extent that the number or rate of births exceeds the number or rate of deaths. The difference between these numbers (or rates) is termed "natural increase" (or "natural decrease" if deaths exceed births). For example, in 2000 there were 22 births per 1,000 population (the number of births per 1,000 population is termed the "crude birth rate") and 9 deaths per 1,000 population (the "crude death rate"). This difference accounts for the 2000 population growth rate of 14 per 1,000, which is also the rate of natural increase. In absolute numbers, this means that approximately 78 million peopleor about the population of the Philippinesis added to the world each year. For countries, regions, states, and so on, population growth results from a combination of natural increase and migration flows. The rate of natural increase is equivalent to the rate of population growth only for the world as a whole and for any smaller geographical units that experience no migration. Populations can grow at an exponential rate, just as compound interest accumulates in a bank account. One way to assess the growth potential of a population is to calculate its doubling timethe number of years it will take for a population to double in size, assuming the current rate of population growth remains unchanged. This is done by applying the "rule of seventy"; that is, seventy divided by the current population growth rate (in percent per year). The 1.4 percent global population growth rate in 2000 translates into a doubling time (if the growth rate remains constant) of fifty-one years.

History of Global Population Growth

As can be seen in Figure 1, the world's population grew very slowly until about 1750. There was a long period of stationary growth (no growth) until 1000 B.C.E., when the world's population was approximately 300 million; this was followed by a period of slow growth from 1000 B.C.E. to approximately 1750, at which time global population was an estimated 800 million. Until this time, the world's population was kept in check by high death rates, which were due to the combined effects of plagues, famines, unsanitary living conditions, and general poverty. After 1750, the world's population grew substantially; by 1950 it had tripled to around 2.5 billion. In this 200-year period, the

doubling time was 122 years. Growth from 1950 to 1985 was even more dramatic; by 1985, the human population was 5 billion. World population had doubled in thirty-five years. By 2000 global population was 6 billion and is projected to be 9 billion in 2050. Population growth did not become exponential until around 1750. Before that, high mortality counterbalanced the high fertility needed by agrarian parents. Death rates were high and life expectancy was low; life expectancy at birth was in the range of twenty to forty years (most likely around thirty years) until the middle of the eighteenth century. This high mortality was a function of several factors, including poor nutrition, which led directly to deaths through starvation and indirectly through increasing susceptibility to disease; epidemics; and, quite possibly, infanticide and geronticide, especially during times of food shortage. Starting in the middle of the eighteenth century, the mortality rate began to decline in the West, the first place in the world where the natural balance between births and deaths was altered by humans. This decline in deaths occurred not because of major medical breakthroughs (e.g., penicillin was first used only in the 1940s) but rather because of improvements in food availability, housing, water cleanliness, personal hygiene, and public sanitation. Later, in the twentieth century, medical advances, particularly vaccinations against infectious diseases, accelerated mortality decline.

FIGURE 1

Western mortality decline was relatively slow, paralleling socioeconomic development, and it occurred in a global context in which European population "surplus" (arising from gaps between lowering mortality and more slowly lowering fertility) was able to migrate to new areas (e.g., the United States, Canada, and Australia) that were very sparsely populated by Aboriginal peoples (whose numbers were reduced even more by contagious diseases brought by Europeans). Mortality decline in less developed countries followed a different path. First, mortality decreases did not begin until around 1950, much later than in the West. Second, in many less developed countries, substantial mortality reductions occurred in a short period of time. A classic example is Ceylon (now Sri Lanka), where the death rate was halved in less than a decade, starting in the early 1950s. (In the West, a comparable reduction typically took around one century.) In these less developed countries, mortality decreases were not matched by fertility decreases, where they produce population growth rates much greater than those experienced in the West. So the demographic transition that took two centuries to unfold in the West occurred (or is occurring) within the span of a single life. Third, mortality decline did not parallel economic development. Rather, the impetus behind third world mortality reductions originated, for the most part, in factors external to the society. For example, the speedy mortality decline in Ceylon was due to the importation of American technology (pesticides and the airplanes for spraying them) that killed the mosquitoes that were responsible for malaria, the leading cause of death. During the cold war, it was not uncommon for the United States to provide nonaligned countries with such assistance in the hopes of wooing them away from the Soviet Union and a communist development model. As a result, the world witnessed unprecedented rapid population growth between 1950 and 1985, owing, in large part, to third world increases.

FIGURE 2

Further, the phenomenal increase in human numbers over the past 250 years is largely the consequence of mortality declinesnot fertility increases. The first deaths to be reduced were those due to infectious diseases, the victims of which were most often children. The old killers of the past were to be replaced by chronic and degenerative diseases; the primary victims shifted from the young to the old.

Population Growth 1950-2015

The rate of global population growth has declined significantly from its 1970s highs (see Figure 2). Current estimates anticipate a continued decline to about 0.5 percent in 2050. This corresponds to a doubling time of 140 years, a rate that has fostered concern about how the world will cope with 18 billion people in 2190. It is in the less developed countries that the continued growth in population will occur in the twenty-first century. Even though mortality is much higher in less developed countries (e.g., life expectancy at birth in 2000 was 75 years in the more developed countries and 62 to 64 years in the less developed countries), fertility remains even higher, thus accounting for relatively high growth in the third world. However, projections are not guarantees. Population may grow more slowly if, optimistically, fertility declines more quickly than experts expect (e.g., between just 1965 and 1987 the average number of children born to Thai women dropped from 6.3 to 2.2) or, pessimistically, if mortality increases, especially in light of the persistence of HIV/AIDS pandemic and other communicable diseases.

Theories of Population Growth

While theories about population growth first appeared in ancient Greece, the English clergyman and economist Thomas Malthus (17661834) is considered to be the pioneering theorist of the modern age. Malthus formulated a "principle of population" that held that unchecked population grows more quickly than the means of subsistence (food and resources) to sustain it. Population will be controlled either by preventive checks (lowering the number of births, particularly by postponement of marriage age) or by positive checks (increasing deaths as a result of famines, plagues, natural disasters, war). Given a morally based preference for preventive checks, later followers of Malthus (neo-Malthusians) have supported family planning and contraception even though Malthus himself felt that contraception was unacceptable. Other neo-Malthusians have focused upon the claimed negative effects of rapid population growth: war, violence, and environmental degradation. Karl Marx's views on population were directly opposed to those of Malthus. Marx disagreed with the Malthusian idea of a universal principle of population that applied to all societies. For Marx, population growth depended upon the economic base of society. Thus, capitalist society is characterized by its own population principle, which Marx termed the "law of relative population surplus." He argued that capitalism creates overpopulation (i.e., a surplus of people relative to jobs), leading to increased unemployment, cheap labor, and poverty. Also, capitalism requires unemployment in order to ensure a docile, low-paid class of laborers. Marx envisioned that overpopulation would not occur in post capitalist, communist society. In the middle of the twentieth century, demographic transition theory became the dominant theory of population growth. Based on observed trends in Western European societies, it argues that populations go through

three stages in their transition to a modern pattern. Stage One (pre-transition) is characterized by low or no growth, and high fertility is counterbalanced by high mortality. In Stage Two (the stage of transition), mortality rates begin to decline, and the population grows at a rapid pace. By the end of this stage, fertility has begun to decline as well. However, because mortality decline had a head start, the death rate remains lower than the birth rate, and the population continues to experience a high rate of growth. In Stage Three (post transition), the movement to low fertility and mortality rates is complete, producing once again a no-growth situation. The theory of demographic transition explains these three stages in terms of economic development, namely industrialization and urbanization. Since about 1980, demographic transition theory has been criticized on a number of grounds, including its assumption that the demographic experience of non-Western societies will inevitably follow that of the West; its failure to consider cultural variables; and its hypothesized relationship between population growth and economic development. Indeed, all three theories above contain assumptions about population growth and economic development; however, there is mounting evidence that this relationship is complex and varies from context to context. As the twenty-first century begins, the attempt to erect a general theory of population growth has been abandoned, signaling for some an alarming trend in population studies.

Causes of Population Growth There are numerous reasons in the increase of population growth. Heres the list: 1. Increase of Birth Rates Due to lack of awareness & education, most couples are not responsive about the dangers of not using contraception or either being informed about the benefits of family planning that brings about perfect knowledge on how to dominate giving birth to a child. But today great changes have been brought about in the society by the social and economic conditions. Some religious and unscientific beliefs are also responsible for high birth rate. These beliefs are as follows: y perpetuation of family line, performance of funeral rites by a son, boy and girl can never

have similar status; y Children are born as per the desire of God etc. We can also say that child marriages,

ignorance and illiteracy have resulted in increase birth rate. Due to high death rate in economically underdeveloped countries parents feel insecurity. Guided by this mentality, the parents desire to have larger families. y Biological potentiality to breed children is higher in Chinese and Indian women. This is

also responsible for higher birth rate. But one can visualize that other capacities decrease with increased reproductive potentiality.

2. Low death rate The population shows growth if natality is higher than mortality. If natality is equal to mortality, the population index remains steady. Due to modern scientific developments (research), mortality rate is low. Because of control over diseases, healthcare awareness, ability to face natural calamities, consciousness to avoid accidents, research to increase food supply etc. mortality is better controlled than in earlier days. Controlled mortality can be considered as one of the factors for population growth. 3. Increase in life span From human history, it is evident that life span in ancient period was on an average around 30 years. Whereas, it is around 70 years in modern man. Due to varied environment conditions in different countries, variation is observed in average life span index. The life span was 38 years as per 1850 census but in 1977 it rose to 70 years. Thus, man in present time lives longer than before.

Effects of Population Growth The effects of population growth are varied and vast. While population growth, of any species, may be beneficial to a certain extent, there may come a time when the number in the population exceeds the natural resources available to sustain it. This is referred to as overpopulation. The consequences of such an event are severe and major. The population growth of any animal, if left uncontrolled can become burdensome. Farmers have noted, for many centuries, what the effects of an uncontrolled predator population can do to livestock. Once their natural prey run out, or are harder to find, the predators may turn to domesticated animals, despite the risks. This can cause a severe hardship on any family depending on those animals for survival. However, when most think of a growing population, they do not think of other animals. The prime fear in most people's minds is the population growth of their own species. As humans leave a much larger footprint on the environment than any other creature, uncontrolled overgrowth can be especially devastating. First, as the population grows the opportunities for quality, available housing may become an issue. More people crowded into less space are not a good combination in any locality. As space is taken up, it becomes more valuable. Eventually, it begins to affect to poorest in the area. In the long run the effect of population growth may be substandard housing or homelessness. In other cases, access to food and clean water may be the main issue. This is an even more immediate problem than housing. As more people are faced with unsanitary sources of food, disease and famine begin to take root. If left unaffected, it will sweep through an entire population. In some cases, entire countries may be affected by the situation. Finding a solution often requires a multi-national effort.

Another negative effect of population growth is waste control. When there are relatively few people, controlling waste is a much simpler task. However, as populations grow, the waste increases dramatically. Finding a spot for this waste or treating it in a way that does not poison the environment, is critically important. Regions of the world that do not have the ability to do this will find it leads to a number other serious issues and becomes a massive public health problem. In general, the problem is not population growth in itself; it is a mismanagement of natural resources and waste that cause the majority of the problems. Many places have found effective strategies for dealing with such issues. Other locations, usually because of a lack of relative wealth, and perhaps engineering knowledge, have fallen behind.