Assignment for PGPM 24

1.0

INTRODUCTION Energy is an essential input for the economic development of a country in improving the quality of life of its people. For meeting the growing energy needs of the society at a reasonable cost, power development in India started at the end of the 19th century. To contribute significantly to the overall energy availability in the country, sustained attention is being given to develop and promote non-conventional, alternate and renewable sources of energy as also for the development of nuclear energy. Today the installed power generation capacity in the country has increased from 1,400 MW in 1947 to 1,04,917.50 MW at the end of 2001-02 comprising 26,261.22 MW hydro, 74,428.82 MW thermal (including gas and diesel), 1,507.46 MW wind and 2720 MW nuclear. In spite of this increase in installed capacity, the energy shortage in India is of the order of approximately 9 per cent. The peak shortage of power averages almost 15 per cent. The per capita consumption of the power in the country is only 350 units much below the consumption levels in development countries. In order to provide power to all by 2012, additional capacity of 100,000 MW will have to be set up in the next decade. Capacity addition plans for 41,110 MW have been finalized State-wise and project wise for the Tenth Plan period (2002-07). In the central sector, State sector and private sector the capacity addition would be 22,832 MW, 11,157 MW and 7,121 MW respectively. For the year 200203, a capacity addition programme of 4109.10 MW has been fixed. The power generation during 2001-02 was 515.271 BUs comprising 422.001 BUs thermal, 73.992 BUs hydro and 19.278 BUs nuclear. The target of power generation for 2002-03 has been fixed at 545.552 BUs. The plant load factor has shown a steady improvement over the years and has improved from 52.8 per cent in 1990-91 to 69.9 percent in 2001-02. To achieve the target of providing power to all by 2012, the Center has initiated a number of steps with the help of the States. These include a programme initiated by the power Ministry for accelerated and planned hydro development after an overall assessment and prioritization with a view to
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harness an unharnessed estimated hydro potential of more than 150,000 MW and attain the ideal hydro thermal mix ratio of 40:60 which is presently 25:70. In central sector, various hydro schemes with a capacity of over 28000 MW are under different stages of development. The outlay for power sector during the Xth Plan period was enhanced to about Rs. 143,000 crore which is approximately 214 per cent higher than IX plan Outlay. For a phased development of National Power Grid a number of schemes have been planned such as interconnections link to the northern, western, southern and eastern regions in addition to the existing interconnections. Today the inter-regional power transfer capacity is 4,850 MW. It has been planned to enhance to the level of 30,000 MW by 2012 through various interregional links along with transmission highways. United load dispatch centers are being commissioned for northern and southern regions to help regulate the respective grids. The government is pursuing reform measured expeditiously. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, formed under the previsions of Electricity Commission Act, 1998 has been made fully functional. The commission has passed orders on availability-based tariff and has also notified terms and conditions for determination. 2.0 INDIAS ENERGY SECTOR Energy has been universally recognized as one of the most important inputs for economic growth and human development. There is a strong two-way relationship between economic development and energy consumption. On one hand, growth of an economy, with its global competitiveness, hinges on the availability of cost-effective and environmentally benign energy sources, and on the other hand, the level of economic development has been observed to be reliant on the energy demand. 2.1 An Overview

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The energy intensity of India is over twice that of the matured economies, which are represented by the OECD (Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development) member countries. Indias energy intensity is also much higher than the emerging economiesthe Asian countries, which include the ASEAN member countries as well as China. However, since 1999, Indias energy intensity has been decreasing and is expected to continue to decrease. The indicator of energyGDP (gross domestic product) elasticity, that is, the ratio of growth rate of energy to the growth rate GDP, captures both the structure of the economy as well as the efficiency. The energyGDP elasticity during 19532001 has been above unity. However, the elasticity for primary commercial energy consumption for 19912000 was less than unity (Planning Commission 2002). This could be attributed to several factors, some of them being demographic shifts from rural to urban areas, structural economic changes towards lesser energy industry, impressive growth of services, improvement in efficiency of energy use, and inter-fuel substitution. The energy sector in India has been receiving high priority in the planning process. The total outlay on energy in the Tenth Five-year Plan has been projected to be 4.03 trillion rupees at 2001/02 prices, which is 26.7% of the total outlay. An increase of 84.2% is projected over the Ninth Five-year Plan in terms of the total plan outlay on energy sector. The Government of India in the mid-term review of the Tenth Plan recognized the fact that underperformance of the energy sector can be a major constraint in delivering a growth rate of 8% GDP during the plan period. It has, therefore, called for acceleration of the reforms process and adoption of an integrated energy policy. In the recent years, the government has rightly recognized the energy security concerns of the nation and more importance is being placed on energy independence. On the eve of the 59th Independence Day (on 14 August 2005), the President of India emphasized that energy independence has to be
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the nations first and highest priority, and India must be determined to achieve this within the next 25 years.

2.2

Demand and supply scenario

In the recent years, Indias energy consumption has been increasing at one of the fastest rates in the world due to population growth and economic development. Primary commercial energy demand grew at the rate of six per cent between 1981 and 2001 (Planning Commission 2002). India ranks fifth in the world in terms of primary energy consumption, accounting for about 3.5% of the world commercial energy demand in the year 2003. Despite the overall increase in energy demand, per capita energy consumption in India is still very low compared to other developing countries. India is well-endowed with both exhaustible and renewable energy resources. Coal, oil, and natural gas are the three primary commercial energy sources. Indias energy policy, till the end of the 1980s, was mainly based on availability of indigenous resources. Coal was by far the largest source of energy. However, Indias primary energy mix has been changing over a period of time. Despite increasing dependency on commercial fuels, a sizeable quantum of energy requirements (40% of total energy requirement), especially in the rural household sector, is met by non-commercial energy sources, which include fuelwood, crop residue, and animal waste, including human and draught animal power. However, other forms of commercial energy of a much higher quality and efficiency are steadily replacing the traditional energy resources being consumed in the rural sector. Resource augmentation and growth in energy supply has not kept pace with increasing demand and, therefore, India continues to face serious energy shortages. This has led to increased reliance on imports to meet the energy demand. 2.3 Coal

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India now ranks third amongst the coal producing countries in the world. Being the most abundant fossil fuel in India till date, it continues to be one of the most important sources for meeting the domestic energy needs. It accounts for 55% of the countrys total energy supplies. Through sustained increase in investment, production of coal increased from about 70 MT (million tonnes) (MoC 2005) in early 1970s to 382 MT in 2004/05. Most of the coal production in India comes from open pit mines contributing to over 81% of the total production while underground mining accounts for rest of the national output (MoC 2005). Despite this increase in production, the existing demand exceeds the supply. India currently faces coal shortage of 23.96 MT. This shortage is likely to be met through imports mainly by steel, power, and cement sector (MoC 2005). India exports insignificant quantity of coal to the neighbouring countries. The traditional buyers of Indian coal are Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal. The development of core infrastructure sectors like power, steel, and cement are dependent on coal. About 75% of the coal in the country is consumed in the power sector (MoC 2005). 2.4 Power

Access to affordable and reliable electricity is critical to a countrys growth and prosperity. The country has made significant progress towards the augmentation of its power infrastructure. In absolute terms, the installed power capacity has increased from only 1713 MW (megawatts) as on 31 December 1950 to 118 419 MW as on March 2005 (CEA 2005). The all India gross electricity generation, excluding that from the captive generating plants, was 5107 GWh (gigawatt-hours) in 1950 and increased to 565 102 GWh in 2003/04 (CEA 2005). Energy requirement increased from 390 BkWh (billion kilowatt-hours) during 1995/96 to 591 BkWh (energy) by the year 2004/05, and peak demand increased from 61 GW (gigawatts) to 88 GW over the same time period. The country experienced energy shortage of 7.3% and peak shortage of 11.7% during 2003/04. Though, the growth inelectricity consumption over the past

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decade has been slower than the GDPs growth, this increase could be due to high growth of the service sector and efficient use of electricity. Per capita electricity consumption rose from merely 15.6 kWh (kilowatt-hours) in 1950 to 592 kWh in 2003/04 (CEA 2005). However, it is a matter of concern that per capita consumption of electricity is among the lowest in the world. Moreover, poor quality of power supply and frequent power cuts and shortages impose a heavy burden on Indias fast-growing trade and industry. 2.5 Oil and Natural Gas

The latest estimates indicate that India has around 0.4% of the worlds proven reserves of crude oil. The production of crude oil in the country has increased from 6.82 MT in 1970/71 to 33.38 MT in 2003/04 (MoPNG 2004b). The production of natural gas increased from 1.4 BCM (billion cubic metres) to 31.96 BCM during the same period. The quantity of crude oil imported increased from 11.66 MT during 1970/71 to 81 MT by 2003/04. Besides, imports of other petroleum products increased from 1 MT to 7.3 MT during the same period. The exports of petroleum products went up from around 0.5 MT during 1970/71 to 14 MT by 2003/04. The refining capacity, as on 1 April 2004, was 125.97 MTPA (million tonnes per annum). The production of petroleum products increased from 5.7 MT during 1970/71 to 110 MT in 2003/04. Indias consumption of natural gas has risen faster than any other fuel in the recent years. Natural gas demand has been growing at the rate of about 6.5% during the last 10 years. Industries such as power generation, fertilizer, and petrochemical production are shifting towards natural gas. Indias natural gas consumption has been met entirely through domestic production in the past. However, in the last 4/5 years, there has been a huge unmet demand of natural gas in the country, mainly required for the core sectors of the economy. To bridge this gap, apart from encouraging domestic production, the import of LNG (liquefied natural gas) is being considered as one of the possible solutions for Indias expected gas shortages. Several LNG terminals have been planned in the country. Two LNG terminals have already been

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commissioned: (1) Petronet LNG Terminal of 5 MTPA (million tonnes per annum) at Dahej, and (2) LNG import terminal at Hazira. In addition, an inprinciple agreement has been reached with Iran for import of 5 MTPA of LNG. 2.6 Renewable Energy Sources

Renewable energy sources offer viable option to address the energy security concerns of a country. Today, India has one of the highest potentials for the effective use of renewable energy. India is the worlds fifth largest producer of wind power after Denmark, Germany, Spain, and the USA. There is a significant potential in India for generation of power from renewable energy sources, small hydro, biomass, and solar energy. The country has an estimated SHP (small-hydro power) potential of about 15 000 MW. Installed combined electricity generation capacity of hydro and wind has increased from 19 194 MW in 1991/92 to 31 995 MW in 2003/04, with a compound growth rate of 4.35% during this period (MoF 2005). Other renewable energy technologies, including solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, small hydro, and biomass power are also spreading. Greater reliance on renewable energy sources offers enormous economic, social, and environmental benefits. The potential for power production from captive and field-based biomass resources, using technologies for distributed power generation, is currently assessed at 19 500 MW including 3500 MW of exportable surplus power from bagasse-based cogeneration in sugar mills (MNES 2005). 2.7 Future scenario

Increasing pressure of population and increasing use of energy in different sectors of the economy is an area of concern for India. With a targeted GDP growth rate of 8% during the Tenth Five-year Plan, the energy demand is expected to grow at 5.2%. Driven by the rising population, expanding economy, and a quest for improved quality of life, the total primary energy consumption is expected to about 412 MTOE (million tonnes oil equivalent) and 554 MTOE in the terminal years of the Tenth and Eleventh Plans, respectively (Planning Commission 1999).

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The International Energy Outlook 2005 (EIA 2005b) projects, Indias gas consumption to grow at an average annual rate of 5.1%, thereby reaching 2.8 trillion cubic feet by 2025 with the share of electric power sector being of 71% by that time. Coal consumption is expected to increase to 315 MT over the forecast period. In India, slightly less than 60% of the projected growth in coal consumption is attributed to the increased demand of coal in the electricity sector while the industrial sector accounts for most of the remaining increase. The use of coal for electricity generation in India is expected to increase by 2.2% per annum during 200225, thus requiring an additional 59 000 MW of coal-fired capacity. Oil demand in India is expected to increase by 3.5% per annum during the same time. It is quite apparent that coal will continue to be the predominant form of energy in future. However, imports of petroleum and gas would continue to increase substantially in absolute terms, involving a large energy import bill. There is, therefore, an urgent need to conserve energy and reduce energy requirements by demand-side management and by adopting more efficient technologies in all sectors. 3.0 POWE SECTOR : PRESENT SCENARIO 3.1 Generation

India has the fifth largest generation capacity in the world with an installed capacity of 152 GW as on 30 September 2009, which is about 4 percent of global power generation. The top four countries, viz., US, Japan, Chinaand Russia together consume about 49 percent of the total power generated globally. The average per capita consumption of electricity in India is estimated to be 704 kWh during 2008-09. However, this is fairly low when compared to that of some of the developed and emerging nations such US (~15,000 kWh) and China (~1,800 kWh). The world average stands at 2,300 kWh. The Indian government has set ambitious goals in the 11th plan for power sector owing to which the power sector is poised for significant expansion. In order to provide availability of over 1000 units of per capita electricity by year 2012, it has been estimated that need-based capacity

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addition of more than 100,000 MW would be required. This has resulted in massive addition plans being proposed in the sub-sectors of Generation Transmission and Distribution 3.2 Transmission

The current installed transmission capacity is only 13 percent of the total installed generation capacity. With focus on increasing generation capacity over the next 8-10 years, the corresponding investments in the transmission sector is also expected to augment. The Ministry of Power plans to establish an integrated National Power Grid in the country by 2012 with close to 200,000 MW generation capacities and 37,700 MW of inter-regional power transfer capacity. Considering that the current inter-regional power transfer capacity of 20,750 MW, this is indeed an ambitious objective for the country. 3.3 Distribution

While some progress has been made at reducing the Transmission and Distribution (T&D) losses, these still remain substantially higher than the global benchmarks, at approximately 33 percent. In order to address some of the issues in this segment, reforms have been undertaken through unbundling the State Electricity Boards into separate Generation, Transmission and Distribution units and privatization of power distribution has been initiated either through the outright privatization or the franchisee route; results of these initiatives have been somewhat mixed. While there has been a slow and gradual improvement in metering, billing and collection efficiency, the current loss levels still pose a significant challenge for distribution companies going forward.

4.0

GROWTH OF POWER SECTOR

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The power sector has registered significant progress since the process of planned development of the economy began in 1950. Hydro -power and coal based thermal power have been the main sources of generating electricity. Nuclear power development is at slower pace, which was introduced, in late sixties. The concept of operating power systems on a regional basis crossing the political boundaries of states was introduced in the early sixties. In spite of the overall development that has taken place, the power supply industry has been under constant pressure to bridge the gap between supply and demand. Power development is the key to the economic development. The power Sector has been receiving adequate priority ever since the process of planned development began in 1950. The Power Sector has been getting 18-20% of the total Public Sector outlay in initial plan periods. Remarkable growth and progress have led to extensive use of electricity in all the sectors of economy in the successive five years plans. Over the years (since 1950) the installed capacity of Power Plants (Utilities) has increased to 89090 MW (31.3.98) from meagre 1713 MW in 1950, registering a 52d fold increase in 48 years. Similarly, the electricity generation increased from about 5.1 billion units to 420 Billion units 82 fold increase. The per capita consumption of electricity in the country also increased from 15 kWh in 1950 to about 338 kWh in 199798, which is about 23 times. In the field of Rural Electrification and pump set energisation, country has made a tremendous progress. About 85% of the villages have been electrified except far-flung areas in North Eastern states, where it is difficult to extend the grid supply. In December 1950 about 63% of the installed capacity in the Utilities was in the private sector and about 37% was in the public sector. The Industrial Policy Resolution of 1956 envisaged the generation, transmission and distribution of power almost exclusively in the public sector. As a result of this Resolution and facilitated by the Electricity (Supply) Act, 1948, the electricity industry developed rapidly in the State Sector. In the Constitution of India "Electricity" is a subject that falls within the concurrent jurisdiction of the Centre and the States. The Electricity (Supply)

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Act, 1948, provides an elaborate institutional frame work and financing norms of the performance of the electricity industry in the country. The Act envisaged creation of State Electricity Boards (SEBs) for planning and implementing the power development programmes in their respective States. The Act also provided for creation of central generation companies for setting up and operating generating facilities in the Central Sector. TheCentral Electricity Authority constituted under the Act is responsible for power planning at the national level. In addition the Electricity (Supply) Act also allowed from the beginning the private licensees to distribute and/or generate electricity in the specified areas designated by the concerned State Government/SEB. During the post independence period, the various States played a predominant role in the power development. Most of the States have established State Electricity Boards. In some of these States separate corporations have also been established to install and operate generation facilities. In the rest of the smaller States and UTs the power systems are managed and operated by the respective electricity departments. In a few States private licencees are also operating in certain urban areas. From, the Fifth Plan onwards i.e. 1974-79, the Government of India got itself involved in a big way in the generation and bulk transmission of power to supplement the efforts at the State level and took upon itself the responsibility of setting up large power projects to develop the coal and hydroelectric resources in the country as a supplementary effort in meeting the countrys power requirements. The National thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) and National Hydro-electric Power Corporation (NHPC) were set up for these purposes in 1975. North-Eastern Electric Power Corporation (NEEPCO) was set up in 1976 to implement the regional power projects in the North-East. Subsequently two more power generation corporations were set up in 1988 viz. Tehri Hydro Development Corporation (THDC) andNathpa Jhakri Power Corporation (NJPC). To construct, operate and maintain the inter-State and interregional transmission systems the National Power Transmission Corporation (NPTC) was set up in 1989. The corporation was renamed as POWER GRID in 1992.

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The policy of liberalisation the Government of India announced in 1991 and consequent amendments in Electricity (Supply) Act have opened new vistas to involve private efforts and investments in electricity industry. Considerable emphasis has been placed on attracting private investment and the major policy changes have been announced by the Government in this regard which are enumerated below: The Electricity (Supply) Act, 1948 was amended in 1991 to provide for creation of private generating companies for setting up power generating facilities and selling the power in bulk to the grid or other persons. Financial Environment for private sector units modified to allow liberal capital structuring and an attractive return on investment. Up to hundred percent (100%) foreign equity participation can be permitted for projects set up by foreign private investors in the Indian Electricity Sector. Administrative & Legal environment modified to simplify the procedures for clearances of the projects. Policy guidelines for private sector participation in the renovation & modernisation of power plants issued in 1995. In 1995, the policy for Mega power projects of capacity 1000 MW or more and supplying power to more than one state introduced. The Mega projects to be set up in the regions having coal and hydel potential or in the coastal regions based on imported fuel. The Mega policy has since been refined andPower Trading Corporation (PTC) incorporated recently to promote and monitor the Mega Power Projects. PTC would purchase power from the Mega Private Projects and sell it to the identified SEBs. In 1995 GOI came out with liquid fuel policy permitting liquid fuel based power plants to achieve the quick capacity addition so as to avert a severe power crisis. Liquid fuel linkages (Naphtha) were approved for about 12000 MW Power plant capacity. The non-traditional fuels like condensate and orimulsion have also been permitted for power generation.

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GOI has promulgated Electricity Regulatory Commission Act, 1998 for setting up of Independent Regulatory bodies both at the Central level and at the State level viz. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) and the State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERCs) at the Central and the State levels respectively. The main function of the CERC are to regulate the tariff of generating companies owned or controlled by the Central Government, to regulate the tariff of generating companies, other than those owned or controlled by the Central Government, if such generating companies enter into or otherwise have a composite scheme for generation and sale of electricity in more than one State to regulate the inter-state transmission of energy including tariff of the transmission utilities, to regulate inter-state bulk sale of power and to aid & advise the Central Government in formulation of tariff policy. The CERC has been constituted on 24.7.1998. The main functions of the SERC would be to determine the tariff for electricity wholesale bulk, grid or retail, to determine the tariff payable for use by the transmission facilities to regulate power purchase and procurement process of transmission utilities and distribution utilities, to promote competition, efficiency and economy in the activities of the electricity industries etc. Subsequently, as and when each State Government notifies, other regulatory functions would also be assigned to SERCs. The Electricity Laws (Amendment) Act, 1998 passed with a view to make transmission as a separate activity for inviting greater participation in investment from public and private sectors. The participation by private sector in the area of transmission is proposed to be limited to construction and maintenance of transmission lines for operation under the supervision and control of Central Transmission Utility (CTU)/State Transmission Utility (STU). On selection of the private company, the CTU/STU would recommend to the CERC/SERC for issue of transmission licence to the private company.

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The Electricity Laws (Amendment) Act, 1998 provides for creation of Central and State Transmission utilities. The function of the Central Transmission Utility shall be to undertake transmission of energy through inter-state transmission system and discharge all functions of planning and coordination relating to inter-state transmission system with State Transmission Utilities, Central Government, State Governments, generating companies etc. Power Grid Corporation of India Limited will be Central Transmission Utility. The function of the State Transmission Utility shall be to undertake transmission of energy through intra-state transmission system and discharge all functions of planning and coordination relating to intra-state transmission system with Central Transmission Utility, State Governments, generating companies etc. 5.0 INVESTMENT IN POWER SECTOR 5.1 Investment Opportunities in Thermal Power Development 70% of the country's total installed capacity and more than 80% of the total electricity generation is contributed by thermal power. Coal continues to be the main source of for thermal generation. The major thrust in thermal generation could be fructified through significant jump in unit size and steam parameters resulting in higher efficiencies and better economics. The largest unit size in the country at present is 500 MW and 600 MW super critical units are in the pipeline. The projected future unit size is 800-1000 MW with still higher super critical parameters which will have low cost of generation, higher efficiency and are environment friendly. With the identification of new gas sources and availability in international market, there is renewed thrust in gas based combined cycle plants. Such CCGT plants are increasingly becoming technoeconomical viable with advancements in efficient gas turbine technologies and their environmental benefits.

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The post Electricity Act 2003 scenario provides for the opportunity for any generating company to establish, operate and maintain a thermal generating station without the need of a license, thus providing a free hand in setting up of a thermal generating plant.

Strong supportive factors conducive to investment opportunity such a vibrant strong and stable economy, low cost indigenous fuel, availability of skilled manpower, indigenous power plant manufacturing capability, presence of independent power producers and power sector reforms initiatives as confidence building measures for prospective investors.

Thrust to R&M / life extension activities with large investment potential for improving the performance of old thermal power stations. The 10 Plan (2002-07) is targeted towards 57 units (14270 MW) for R&M works and 106 units (10413 MW) with anticipated total cost of more than Rs.10000 crores.

5.2

Investment Opportunities in Hydro Power Development The 10 Plan program envisages capacity addition of 14393 MW from hydel projects in the total capacity addition of 41110. The Govt. has initiated advance action for taking up new hydro projects. A 50,000 hydro initiative has been launched and pre feasibility reports for 162 projects prepared. In the second phase of this programme, DPRs for about 30,000 MW are under preparation for eventual implementation through both public & private sector agencies.

Govt. would take up for execution, all the CEA cleared projects and take steps to up date and obtain clearance for pending DPRS. Survey and investigations for new green field sites. Restart and activate the pending hydro projects for want of funds/inter state issues. Promoting small and mini hydel projects by simple design of turbines, generators and the civil works and in a shorter period.

5.3

Investment Opportunities in Transmission Schemes

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The high capacity inter-regional transmission links, forming the back bone of the National Power Grid would require an investment of the order of Rs. 40,000 crores of which about 50% would be needed during the Tenth Plan period and the balance during the Eleventh Plan period. Simultaneously, strengthening of the regional system for meeting the increased transmission needs on account of increased inter-regional transactions as well as for evacuation, transmission and dispersal of power from generation resources within the regions would have to be continued and the transmission and distribution system in the State sector would also need to be strengthened. The requirement of funds for transmission and distribution system in the country corresponding to the programme of 1,00,000 MW of generation addition in the next ten years has been estimated to be of the order of Rs.3,00,000 Crores as per the following break-up: X Plan National Grid System including InterRegional and Regional Transmission System States Transmission System Sub-transmission and Distribution System Total 5.4 40,000 20,000 80,000 1,40,000 XI Plan 50,000 20,000 90,000 1,60,000 XII Plan 90,000 40,000 1,70,000 3,00,000

Investment Opportunities in Private Sector Participation in

Transmission Schemes The Government made enabling provision for private sector participation in transmission sector way back in 1998 by amending the then existing Electricity Act 1948. Generation of electricity was opened for private sector in 1991. In the newly enacted Electricity Act 2003, any private player can seek license from the Appropriate Commission to carry out business in transmission of electricity. Government of India envisages two routes for private sector participation in transmission ventures. IPTC route provides 100% fund mobilization by private entrepreneurs as I n d e p e n d e n t P r i v a t e Transmission Company. And JVC route -provides formulation of a Joint Venture Company (JVC) with CTU/STU by selecting a private investor as joint venture partner.
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To start with, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission granted transmission license on 13-11-2003 to M/s Powerlinks Transmission Limited, a joint venture company of the Power Grid Corporation of India Limited and Tata Power. This Joint Venture (JV) project is first of its kind in India and is being promoted by Government of India as a pilot project under its policy of encouraging private sector participation in transmission of electricity.

As a first project to be undertaken under the IPTC route, the Government has already identified the Bina-Nagda-Dehgam 400kV Double Circuit transmission line of about 700 KM route length to be taken up for private sector participation.

Opportunity of massive investment in Transmission exists and it is envisaged that upto Rs. 9,000 crores can be invested by the private sector by the end of Xth Five Year Plan.

5.5

Investment Opportunities in Distribution Schemes

Accelerated Power Development Reform Programme: The Distribution Sector could not grow with the required pace due to paucity of funds and therefore,Distribution Reforms were initiated by the Government. MoUs and MoAs were signed with the States for linking the support of Government of India through APDRP which is ambitious plan for upgradation and strengthening of sub-transmission and distribution system with the objective of reducing the AT&C losses to around15%.

Six Level Intervention Strategy: In order to achieve commercial viability Ministry of Power has formulated six level intervention strategy that encompasses initiatives at National level, State level, SEB/Utility level, Distribution Circle level, Feeder level and the consumer level.

Anti-Theft Measures: Several States viz. Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Kerala and Gujarat have taken number

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of initiative to curb the theft of power which have shown improvement in collection of revenue by the SEBs/Utilities. The Electricity Act, 2003 provides a legal framework for making theft of electricity a cognizable offence. Under Section 135 of the Electricity Act, 2003, whoever dishonestly taps lines or cables or service wires, tampers, damages or destroys meters etc. shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to three years or with fine or with both. 100% Metering Programme: A programme of 100% metering has been taken up by States subsequent to Power Ministers/Chief Ministers conference held on 26.2.2000. As on 30th September, 2004, 95% and 87% metering have been achieved in respect of 11 kV feeders and consumer feeders respectively. Consumer Care Centre: To address consumer grievances various States have taken initiatives by setting up consumer care centres and these centers are effectively operating at Hyderabad, Vadodara, Bangalore, Faridabad, Delhi and almost all States are taking steps for implementing the consumer care centres for large towns of the States 5.6 Future Investment Requirement

Even after investment made by the Union Government through APDRP in ST&D system, the distribution sector needs further investment considering the growth rates of various segments of the distribution system the projections by the end of 2006-07 are as follows:

Line 66kV 33kV

Ckt km 46947 346336

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11kV LV

2270984 4486176

An investment of Rs. 86357 crores was assessed by the Working Group on Power at the beginning of the Tenth Plan. However the same has gone to Rs. 1,00,000/- crore as on today for the entire 10th Plan period (2002-07). Research And Development (R&D) And New Technologies: According to the National Perspective Plan on R&D in Indian Power Sector up to 2015, distribution sector was identified as the key area for taking up the Research and Development (R&D) in this sector. The identified areas are: High voltage distribution system (HVDS) Demand side management Custom power devices Compact transformation devices Distribution automation Metering Quality of Power Supply and Customer Satisfaction: With the enactment of the Electricity Act, 2003 the emphasis has been given on providing quality and interruption free supply to customers. Keeping this objective in view Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has started monitoring of reliability index, average tripping per month in respect of 11 kV feeders in respect of towns having population of more than 8 lakhs. This will facilitate in bench marking various indices for the annual frequency and duration of tripping. Various State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) are also in the process of making regulations for standard of performance in compliance to various provisions of the Electricity Act, 2003.

Regulation on Installation and Operation of Meters: In compliance to provision of Section 55 of the Electricity Act, 2003, CEA is making regulation on installation and operation of meters. This will facilitate in

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uniformity of approach for location of meters, selecting type of meters and their specification, new investment opportunities. The Finance Minister of India Sh. Pranab Mukherjee in an article on march 01, 2009 mentioned that : With the countrys power requirement expected to touch 8,00,000 MW by 2031-32, India would need an investment of Rs6,00,000 crore, This investment is possible only by attracting foreign direct investment and public-private participation in the power sector, He said at a function to lay the foundation stone for the 1,000 MW Tuticorin power project of NLC Tamilnadu Power Ltd, a joint venture of the Neyveli Lignite Corporation and Tamil Nadu Electricity Board. Claiming that despite odds, the power sector in the country had made a turnaround, he said It is time we move ahead and improve our performance by joining together. We should ensure the power shortage is the story of the past and the people got quality power at a competitive price, he said. The government should make efforts to generate power through various sources by fixing targets, he added. At present, the energy shortage in the country was estimated at 10% and it touches 13% during peak seasons. There are states, where the energy shortage is 25%. This is a serious impediment in the way of industrial development and economic process. So we need a crash project for capacity building and eliminate power shortage by 2012, he said.

6.0

CURRENT PROBLEM IN POWER SECTOR

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As the Indian power sector is embarking on increasing the generation and transmission capacities, key challenges lie ahead which also resulted the historical underperformance. 6.1 Project Execution Needs to be expedited

India has historically failed to meet its power sector targets by a significant margin and with tremendous opportunities ahead, the power sector continues to be affected by the shortfall both on generation as well as transmission side. For example, for the current installed capacity of around 152 GW, the interregional transmission capacity is only about 20 GW (13 percent of the installed capacity). The various proposals in generation and transmission are currently under different implementation stages. However, the power sector in India has been plagued with a set of problems for meeting the planned targets. Although measures have been defined by the policymakers and stakeholders in a sense of complacency that the issues will indeed be resolved and India will plug the supply deficit of power to resolve the same but looking at the past record, it can be estimated that the resolution measures may not be implemented. The biggest indicator of a poor track record is the inability to meet targets on the power generation capacity additions. Variance with the target has been as high as 50 percent in the past. For the 10th Five year plan various reasons have been identified for slippage. They range from inadequate preparedness of projects, shortage of equipment to the delay in financial closure. The shortage of equipment by BHEL has been identified as a major cause of delay in the timely completion of the power generation projects. The target for the current 11th Plan is ambitious, at 78,700 MW, but the first 2 years have already seen a slippage. 6.2 Fuel Availability

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While additional gas supply from KG Basin has eased shortage to a limited extend, supply constraints for domestic coal remain and are expected to continue going forward. Consequently, public and private sector entities have embarked upon imported coal as a means to bridge the deficit. This has led to some Indian entities to take upon the task of purchasing, developing and operating coal mines in international geographies. While this is expected to secure coal supplies it has again thrown upon further challenges. For example, the main international market for coal supply to India Indonesia, poses significant political and legal risks in the form of changing regulatory framework towards foreign companies. Similarly, coal evacuation from mines in South Africa is constrained by their limited railway capacity and the capacity at ports is controlled by a group of existing users making it difficult for a new entrant to ensure reliable evacuation9. In this case it is essential to manage the risk of supply disruption by different options like diversification of supply, due diligence on suppliers, unambiguous contracting and strict monitoring among others. The failure to achieve the planned target from the captive coal blocks presents itself as a major challenge to the power sector, as only 24 blocks have become operational out of the total 210. Experts believe that the nonoperational status of majority of these blocks is attributed to land acquisition (R&R) issues, permit delays and infrastructure problems10. In addition, the developers who have been given the charge of captive blocks are not putting diligent efforts to expedite the mining operations due to their lack of experience in coalmine development. Coal is the mainstay of the power production in India and is expected to remain so in the future. Additional power generation is likely to require incremental amount of coal transportation by Indian Railways within the country and increasing unloading at ports in India for imported coal. In both cases India currently faces capacity shortage. Hence, a project developer has to account for and manage its logistics chain in a manner that minimizes disruption to its fuel supply. In many cases this is likely to involve self development of relevant supply infrastructure which poses additional project
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execution complexity for the developer. For example, some imported coal based power plants are also forced to set up an unloading jetty for coal carrying shipping vessels. This has to be ensured before the commissioning of a power plant which requires an alternate set of project execution skills in the port sector. 6.3 Equipment Shortage

Equipment shortages have been a significant reason for India missing its capacity addition targets for the 10th five year plan. While the shortage has been primarily in the core components of Boilers, Turbines and Generators, there has been lack of adequate supply of Balance of Plant (BOP) equipment as well. These include coal-handling, ashhandling plants, etc. Apart from these, there is shortage of construction equipment as well. The Working Group on Power for 11th Plan has outlined the requirement for construction equipment for Hydro and Thermal power plants. To alleviate supply shortage of equipment two measures are being adopted enhancement of domestic equipment manufacturing capability by establishing JVs between Indian and foreign suppliers and second measure is procuring equipment directly from international markets. In both cases equipment sourcing needs to be managed effectively throughout the procurement cycle. For instance, it may be a challenge for new project owners to select a reliable supplier, monitor its performance and ensure the quality of supply on a sustained basis. Also, the timelines for availability of additional domestic equipment supply has not been clearly defined. 6.4 Land Acquisition and Environment Clearance Power sector. Power plants and utilities face major

Land Acquisition poses an increasingly significant challenge in the Indian constraints and delays regarding the availability of land and obtaining the requisite environment and other clearances for the projects. The new Bill relating to land acquisition has continued to face political opposition. While it provides for acquisition by project

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development agencies to the extent of 70 percent of the land required for a project, with the balance to be obtained by the Government. In addition, it has been reported that in some cases, even after land owners were asked to sell and handover their land in Public Interest, the project was not completed for several years due to other delays, a fact that eroded the credibility of both the industry and the government. Consequently there is a significant mismatch of expectations from the Project Affected Persons (PAP). Stakeholders or other land owners may collectively object of the project execution. In such cases, it is essential to proactively manage the environment and stakeholders expectations. 6.5 Financial

Rapid build up of the generation capacity is being aided by setting up of Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs) each of which is 4000 MW. However, the execution of the Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPP) is a significant challenge as India has not witnessed an execution of such a large scale power project before. Furthermore, with each UMPP costing above INR 16,000 Crore, financing such a large project is a critical constraint for any developer. In addition, considering the high financial stake involved through private investments, delay in payments may put severe pressure on developers/suppliers to meet the performance commitments. 6.6 Manpower Shortage

There is a general consensus that shortage of talent in the construction sector is a long term problem and is likely to continue to push up project costs and risks. The flow of talent into construction and power sector has been gradually drying up as candidates have sought an alternative and often more lucrative career options. The Government, which is the biggest buyer of the capital projects, has also not done enough to address this challenge. The education system is often not delivering the required number of specialists across project management, engineering, estimating, surveying and contract
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management. Facing a desperate game of catch up, the industry needs a genuine collaboration between project owners, contractors and governments to attract more school leavers and graduates. Companies should also seek to stay in touch with changing employee aspirations. By encouraging diversity in its employment practices and by offering greater flexibility in working hours, the sector can reach out to a wider potential audience that perhaps would not previously have considered such a career. Investment in existing employees is also crucial in order to offer better-defined career structures, with a greater focus on training and higher salaries where possible. 6.7 Schedule Dependency on Transmission Lines

Significant enhancement in construction activity is likely to be required to meet the 11th plan target of additional transmission capacity. A significant portion of this enhancement is likely to be in the North Eastern region, Sikkim and Bhutan, which have difficult terrain reducing the margin of error for project execution. Additional transmission capacity is required to evacuate power from surplus regions to supply to deficit regions and to enable electricity trading. This is essential to meet the target of Power for all. Hence, the criticality of implementing transmission projects cannot be ignored. In this context, it is imperative to establish sound project management principles to the sector to help ensure timely completion of projects. From the perspective of power generation projects, it is critical for project specific transmission projects to be set up before the commissioning of the plant to enable timely evacuation of power. This adds another scheduling constraint for the project.

The most important cause of the problems being faced in the power sector is the irrational and unremunerative tariff structure. Although the tariff is fixed and realized by SEBs, the State Governments have constantly interfered in tariff setting without subsidizing SEBs for the losses arising out of State Governments desire to provide power at concessional rates to certain sectors, especially agriculture. Power Supply to agriculture and domestic consumers is heavily subsidized. Only a part of this subsidy is recovered by SEBs through cross subsidization of tariff from commercial and industrial consumers. The

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SEBs, in the process, have been incurring heavy losses. If the SEBs were to continue to operate on the same lines, their internal resources generation during the next ten years will be negative, being of the order of Rs.(-) 77,000 crore. This raises serious doubts about the ability of the States to contribute their share to capacity addition during the Ninth Plan and thereafter. This highlights the importance of initiating power sector reforms at the earliest and the need for tariff rationalization.

7.0

DEMAND SUPPLY GAP It is evident that the deficit in power availability in India is a significant impediment to the smooth development of the economy. In this context, bridging the gap in demand and supply has become critical and consequently, large projects are being undertaken in different segments of the sector; Generation, Transmission and Distribution. As India has not witnessed such a large scale of implementation before, there is a need to review and enhance project execution capabilities to help ensure targets are met. This strongly necessitates employing a comprehensive project management structure to address the major challenges of the power sector projects and to be able to deliver them as per the planned targets. Historical records also indicate the presence of a weak project management structure which does not assess all the key project aspects. As discussed initially, the overall intent of this paper is to highlight the opportunities and challenges of the power sector, and the project management drivers that are required to address these challenges. The table below summarizes the key implementation challenges and drivers for successfully achieving the implementation of power generation plans.

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Key Challenges Addition of significant generation capacity

Measures being adopted UMPP

Resulting Issues Technical and financial capability to execute such large projects

Drivers for determining success Project execution Cost / Cash flow management Risk Management strategy and planning Risk management through effective contracting, supply diversification, etc Control over supply infrastructure Robust procurement management, vendor monitoring Project scheduling

Risk Increase manifold

Ensuring fuel availability and quality

Purchase and development of coal mines abroad

Risk in operating in different geographies, Eg. Political risks

Uncertainties in logistics operation Plant equipment shortage Procurement from abroad Vendor reliability

Setting up of new supply units Land acquisition and environment clearances Manpower shortage Speeding up processes

Execution timelines Inadequate communication with stakeholders resulting in mismatch of expectations from project affected person

Environment and stakeholders management

Enhance training

Resource planning and management

8.0 (i)

STRATEGIES TO ACHIEVE POWER FOR ALL BY ALTERNATE SOURCES OF ENERGY Biomass as a Source of Energy The term biomass refers to all organic matter generated through photosynthesis and other biological processes. The ultimate source of this renewable biomass is the inexhaustible solar energy which is captured by plants through photosynthesis. It includes both terrestrial as well as aquatic matter such as wood, herbaceous plants, algae, aquatic plants and residues, like straw, husks, corncobs, cow dung, saw-dust, wood shavings and other wastes like disposable garbage, night soil, sewage solids, industrial refuse etc. In spite of all these biomass resources available in India, they are not

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being properly utilized. In fact, a large amount of it is disposed off by burning in open fields causing serious air pollution. In order to utilise these resources properly, biomass should be converted to energy which can meet a sizeable percentage of the country's demands for fuel as well as energy. Three main approaches can be adopted for generation and proper utilization. 1. Collection of agricultural and forest residues to produce fuels, organic manures and chemical feed stock. 2. Collection of urban and industrial wastes as fuel in boilers and as a feedstock for producing methane and some liquid fuels. 3. Growth of some specific energy plants for use as energy feed stock and cultivation of commercial forestry, aquatic and marine plants for different products. By a number of processes, the collected wastes can be converted into solid, liquid and gaseous fuels. The technologies include thermal, thermo-chemical and bio-chemical conversions. The actual processes in these technologies are combustion, pyrolysis, gasification, alcoholic fermentation, liquefaction etc. The main products of conversion technologies are energy (thermal, steam, electricity), solid fuels (charcoal, combustibles) and synthetic fuels (methanol, methane, hydrogen gas etc.). These can be used for different purposes like cooking, lighting, heating, water pumping, electricity generation and as industrial and transport fuels. Depending on the nature and availability of these wastes and organic residues they can be utilized in different manners as described here. 1. Fuel biomass By some processes and procedures, biomass products like fuel gas, liquid fuels, gaseous fuels etc. are obtained, which are given here

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Biomass from plants or animal origin are directly burnt for cooking

and other purposes. Municipal and sewage wastes, industrial wastes and agricultural wastes are converted to energy which can meet the demand for energy in rural sector. Paddy straw and rice husk can be profitably converted to fuel gas

by thermal decomposition (Combustion) Ethanol, which is used as a liquid fuel can be produced from

carbohydrates by alcoholic fermentation. When wood and agricultural residues are heated in the absence of

air (pyrolysis), charcoal is the resultant product which can be used as a fuel more advantageously than wood. By the process of gasification, gas is evolved which can be used as

a fuel for engines. Biogas, which is popular in rural areas is produced by anaerobic

fermentation from farm wastes. 2. Feed biomass Conventionally, crop residues are used as cattle-feed. However, some of them with high percentage of lignin or non-digestible constituents need certain treatments such as soaking in water, alkali/alcohol to make their use as a fuel. The oil-cakes of various crop seed like cotton, rubber, tobacco etc. can also be used as a feed after extraction of toxic materials. 3. Organic fertilizer biomass Dry fermented slurry can be used as a direct organic fertilizer for crop land. 4. Fibre biomass The fibrous agricultural wastes and residues are being profitably utilised for making pulp for cheap grade paper.

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5. Chemical biomass Highly siliconous agricultural residues like rice husk and rice straw can be converted into useful chemicals like morphous silicon, silicate products and solar grade silicon. Furfural an another chemical can be produced from biogases, cotton seed hulls, corn-cobs, flax fibres, oat hulls etc., which is used as a solvent for some petroleum products. (ii) Wind as a source of Energy Today, people are realizing that wind power "is one of the most promising new energy sources" that can serve as an alternative to fossil fuel-generated electricity. With today's technology, wind energy could provide 20% of America's electricity (or about the amount nuclear power provides) with turbines installed on less than 1% of its land area. And within that area, less than 5% of the land would be occupied by wind equipment-the remaining 95% could continue to be used for farming or ranching. By the year 2020, 10 million average American homes may be supplied by wind power, preventing 100 million metric tons of CO2 emissions every year. Lessening our dependence on fossil fuels is critical to the health of all living things, and wind energy can do just that. The 3 billion kWh of electricity produced by America's wind machines annually displace the energy equivalent of 6.4 million barrels of oil and avoid 1.67 million tons of carbon emissions, as well as sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions that cause smog and acid rain. In other words, "more wind power means less smog, acid rain, and greenhouse gas emissions". Windmills may have been around for almost 1500 years, but it was not imagined that wind power would become affordable enough to compete with fossil fuels. Indeed it has. In fact, many utility services around the world offer

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wind-generated electricity at a premium of 2 to 3 cents per kWh. If a household used wind power for 25% of its needs, it would spend only $4 or $5 dollars per month for it and the price is still dropping. Compare this to 4.8 to 5.5 cents per kWh for coal or 11.1 to 14.5 cents per kWh for nuclear power. Wind energy is therefore "cheaper than any other new electric generation except natural gas.[which] emits one pound of greenhouse gases for every kilowatt-hour of electricity it generates." The success of this energy is in part due to the fact that its costs have gone "down by more than 80% since the early 1980s." Even lower prices are expected, as "industry analysts see the cost dropping by an additional 20 percent to 40 percent by 2005". Wind power is now the world's fastest growing energy source and has also become one of the most rapidly expanding industries, with sales of roughly $3 billion in 2008. Major offshore developments are likely in northern European waters in the early part of the next century. This will be the next major step for this technology and will result in a dramatic increase in decentralized electricity generation. Offshore wind has the potential to deliver substantial quantities of energy at a price that is cheaper than most of the other renewable energies, as wind speeds are generally higher offshore than on land. As of 1999, global wind energy capacity topped 10,000 megawatts, which is approximately 16 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. That's enough to serve over 5 cities the size of Miami, according to the American Wind Energy Association. Five Miamis may not seem significant, but if we make the predicted strides in the near future, wind power could be one of our main sources of electricity. "With today's technology, wind energy could provide 20% of America 's electricity (or about the amount nuclear power provides) with turbines installed on less than 1% of its land area. And within that area, less than 5% of the land would be occupied by wind equipment the remaining 95% could continue to be used for farming or ranching." By the year 2010, 10

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million average American homes may be supplied by wind power, preventing 100 million metric tons of CO 2 emissions every year. Lessening our dependence on fossil fuels is critical to the health of all living things, and wind energy can do just that. "The 3 billion kWh of electricity produced by America's wind machines annually displace the energy equivalent of 6.4 million barrels of oil and avoid 1.67 million tons of carbon emissions, as well as sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions that cause smog and acid rain." In other words, "more wind power means less smog, acid rain, and greenhouse gas emissions." (iii) Mini and micro hydroelectric projects. Water flowing downstream is a powerful force. Water is a renewable resource, constantly recharged by the global cycle of evaporation and precipitation. The heat of the sun causes water in lakes and oceans to evaporate and form clouds. The water then falls back to Earth as rain or snow, and drains into rivers and streams that flow back to the ocean. Flowing water can be used to power water wheels that drive mechanical processes. And captured by turbines and generators, like those housed at many dams around the world, the energy of flowing water can be used to generate electricity. (iv) Solar power Solar energy is the energy derived from the sun through the form of solar radiation. Solar powered electrical generation relies on photo voltaics and heat engines. A partial list of other solar applications includes space heating and cooling through solar architecture, daylighting, solar hot water, solar cooking, and high temperature process heat for industrial purposes. Solar technologies are broadly characterized as either passive solar or active solar depending on the way they capture, convert and distribute solar energy. Active solar techniques include the use of photovoltaic panels and solar thermal collectors to harness the energy. Passive solar techniques include orienting a building to the Sun, selecting materials with favorable thermal

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mass or light dispersing properties, and designing spaces that naturally circulate air.

(v)

Nuclear power Many researchers consider that harnessing the energy of the atom in fission reactions is the most important alternative energy resource that we have, for the simple fact of the immense power that it can generate. Nuclear power plants are especially "clean-burning" and their efficiency is quite staggering. Nuclear power is produced at 80% efficiency, meaning that the energy created by the fission reactions is almost equal to the energy put into producing the fission reactions to begin with. There is not a lot of waste material created by nuclear fission-although, due to the fact that there is no such thing as producing energy without also creating some measure of waste, there is some. The apprehensions of people such as environmentalists regarding using nuclear power as an alternative energy source are based on this waste, which are radioactive gases that must be contained.

The radiation from these gases lasts for an extremely long time, so it can never be let out once contained and stored. However, the volume of this waste gas generated by the nuclear power plants is small in comparison to the volume of NOx (nitrous oxide-that is, air pollution) that is attributable to one day's worth of rush-hour commuter traffic in Los Angeles. Whereas the radiation is certainly the more deadly by far of the two waste products, the radiation is also by far the simpler of the two to contain and store. In spite of the concerns of the environmentalists, nuclear power is actually environmentally friendly alternative power, and the risk of the enclosed radiation getting out is actually lower than you would expect. With a relatively low volume of waste material created, it should not be a difficult thing at all for storage and disposal solutions for the long-term to be formulated as technology advances.

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The splitting of an atom produces energy in the forms of both heat and light. Atomic power plants control the fission reactions so that they don't lead to the devastating explosions that are generated by atomic and hydrogen bombs. There is hardly any chance of an atomic power plant exploding similar to a nuclear bomb, as the specialized conditions and the pure Plutonium utilized to unleash an atomic bomb's vicious force just simply don't exist inside a nuclear power plant. The risk of a "meltdown" is very low. Although this latter event has changed a couple of times, when one considers that there are over 430 nuclear reactors spread out across 33 nations around the world, and that nuclear reactors have been used since the early 1950s, these are rare incidents, and the events akin to that which have taken place were the fault of outdated materials which should have been properly maintained. Indeed, if nuclear energy could become a more broadly accepted form of alternative energy, there would be little question of their upkeep being maintained. Presently, six states in America generate more than half of all their electrical energy needs by way of nuclear power, and the media are not filled with grim horror stories of the power plants regularly having difficulties.

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