Dealing with new fox disease

A mass vaccination model

Ameli Gottstein, Ina Grincevic, Rupert Kotze, Nic Mortimer, Adam Sebesty en, Rhiannon Whiting The University of Green wich 1/21/2010

 Dealing with new fox disease

Dealing with new fox disease

A mass vaccination model
There is a new disease affecting foxes that has broken out across the UK. This disease must be stopped from spreading as soon as possible as there are concerns that it may spread to farm animals, which would affect farmers livelihood. We know that once the fox contracts the disease it dies after two weeks. During this period it spreads the disease to any other fox which it comes in to contact with. Also, we know that there is a 100% effective vaccine which can be spread by leaving food laced with it in places where foxes would find it easily. There are three possible ways to eliminate the disease; kill all the foxes, vaccine all the foxes or a mixture of both of these strategies.
Factors to consi der

that generally after a fox has been killed, another fox will move into its territory almost immediately therefore there are no implications of diminishing population as long as fox killing is not widespread and not continuous. However if using vaccines is more effective in protecting farm animals it would be preferable to do this to avoid public backlash. Another issue considers the food chain. If we kill all foxes then there could be an abundance of rabbits. Rabbits eat farm crops and can cause damage to land. By eating rabbits, foxes provide an indirect economic benefit to farmers of at least 7 million annually as rabbits eat farm crops and cause damage to land. However as mentioned above, the fox population replenishes quickly and so we dismiss this issue. How cost effective our solution is, is one of the most important issues to consider. This is particularly important when considering public opinion, as not only there are ethical implications because vaccines are generally more expensive than killing but on the other hand we need to choose what the most affective solution for the farms is; at they create jobs, and so local income.

There are several issues to consider within this problem. Firstly there are the ethical implications of the solution we choose, and how this might affect public opinion. Some of the public would argue that if our solution involves shooting foxes then this is unkind. Legally we are allowed to kill foxes as long as by a humane method and culling is classed as one of these methods and we assume that the public would allow some deaths if this was seen to be protecting other foxes and farm animals. We have researched and found
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Assum ptions

In order to simplify the model, we had to make a number of assumptions. First we assume that the outbreak is only in the UK and cannot spread to other countries, and the outbreak happens in Autumn so mating season has not yet started. This means we do not have to consider young foxes.

 Dealing with new fox disease

We also assume that foxes are spread evenly across the UK. Foxes also stay in their own territory (we assume this is true after contracting the disease too) and contact between different foxes is very limited, as they are monogamous and hunt alone. Thus the disease will spread fairly slowly. It is assumed that the symptoms of the disease are easily recognisable, such as a loss of fur, and that if farmers notice these symptoms, they will alert us, as it is in their best interests to prevent the disease spreading to their livestock. The disease is assumed to be isolated across different areas of the UK (so can still be contained), and we have also assumed that the incubation period of the disease is zero, ie. as soon as a fox contracts the disease it can spread it to other foxes immediately. Finally, we have assumed that the vaccine has been developed, is widely available and has no shortage, and we have unlimited funds available to control the disease. However, we have researched which method/s are most costeffective.

and protection for farm animals. Also the grid will be made denser around the first wave of sightings helping the definition of the mostly vulnerable area as well as a buffer zone around this area. Hunters need to be sent to the inner areas clearing all the infected foxes they find and also at the same time high amount of vaccine has to be distributed around the wider area to raise the number of foxes immune to the disease. Given that the vaccination creates a wide enough buffer zone, no fox outside the effected region can come into contact with any infected foxes causing the elimination of the disease two weeks after the vaccination is finished. After the two weeks all foxes in and around the defined area will be either dead or immune thus containing the outbreak. This strategy can be applied to any number of infected areas reported by farmers preventing the disease to spread around the whole of the country. Also any farms inside the wider area have to be inspected for the disease, quarantined if necessary or the animals have to be killed if the disease is already present.

The new model

The new model is made up of a grid across the UK with farms grouped into certain points. We will only be considering England due to the fact that the disease cannot spread overseas. There has to be a phone number set up on which farmers can report sightings of infected foxes. The reports are mapped on the grid so the infected areas can be pinpointed. With this knowledge the highlighted areas can receive more funding for finding infected foxes, vaccines

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 Dealing with new fox disease

Figure 1: The grid model applied to Great Britain

Num bers an d Figures

Based on researched and estimated values, our team performed simulations of three different scenarios: I. II. III. No Interference Mass Vaccination Mass Vaccination with Partial Killing

Further, the basic reproduction number R0 , which describes the average amount of healthy individuals that one single infected fox will infect during its lifetime, must be defined. It is known that after disease outbreak, an infected fox will die after only 14 days. Foxes generally dont mix but stay close to direct family members, if such an infected group meets another we assume that the disease will be transmitted in 100% of the cases. Since R0 is defined as 14 and is therefore greater than 1, the virus can be expected to spread exponentially and very fast. Scenario I showed in fact that theoretically after only 18 days, every fox in England would be infected. In reality of course there would be urban areas such as London, which would slow the spread of the virus down. By researching costs for dog vaccinations we decided to assume that the cost of vaccine per fox is about twice as much as for shooting a fox. Since the exact values are unknown, it will be left in one unit and half a unit respectively. The main aim of the simulations was to find out after how many days, the virus would be eliminated, what the total expenditures would amount to and then to be able to conclude the best scenario. Since a farmer whose animals got infected by foxes can lose his entire sources of income within days, we aim to develop a model that is quick and effective.

For all three, we needed an approximate number of foxes in England to start with. An area of 130,395 km and a fox population density of 1.2/km , gives 156,474 foxes. The problem was modelled using SIR, which splits the foxes into three groups: Susceptible(S), Infected (I) and Recovered/Dead (R). At the start of every simulation there was one single infected fox and 156,473 susceptible ones. For scenarios II and III another group, the Immunes (Q) must be taken into consideration. As soon as a critical immunisation threshold is reached, ie a sufficient number of foxes has taken the vaccine, the virus will die out.

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 Dealing with new fox disease

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