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Challenges of Integrated Modelling at the JRC

Leen Hordijk
IES Director

Joint Research Centre (JRC) IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability Ispra - Italy http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

Content
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Introduction
State of play

Examples of Integrated Assessment (Modeling)

The Resource Efficiency Communication

Why at the JRC?

Challenges

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Where does the JRC fit in the European Commission?

President Barroso 27 Commission Members

Commissioner GeogheganQuinn Research, Innovation and Science

Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Research DG (RTD)

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The Mission
is to provide customer-driven scientific and technical support for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring of EU policies. As a service of the European Commission, the JRC functions as a reference centre of science and technology for the Union. Close to the policy-making process, it serves the common interest of the Member States, while being independent of special interests, whether private or national.

The Vision
is to be a trusted provider of science-based policy options to EU policy makers to address key challenges facing our society, underpinned by internationally recognised research.

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Our Structure: 7 Institutes in 5 Member States IRMM Geel, Belgium

Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements

ITU Karlsruhe, Germany

Institute for Transuranium Elements

IE Petten, The Netherlands and Ispra, Italy

Institute for Energy

IPSC Ispra, Italy

Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen

IES Ispra, Italy

Institute for Environment and Sustainability

IHCP Ispra, Italy

Institute for Health and Consumer Protection

IPTS Seville, Spain

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

~ 2750 staff ~ 345 M/y institutional budget (+ 60 M/y earned income)

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JRC Strategy 2010-2020

Strategic Developments

Socio-economic research and

modelling capacity will be expanded

Multi-disciplinary research teams

across the JRC

Strong proactive forward-looking,

horizon scanning capacity

Enhanced assessment of policy

options

Seven Thematic Areas

Strategy 2010-2020
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Towards an open and competitive economy

TA 1

Development of a low carbon society

Sustainable management of natural resources Safety of food and consumer products Nuclear safety and security Security and crisis management Reference materials and measurements
TA 7

TA 2 TA 3

TA 4

JRC Thematic Areas

TA 5

TA 6

JRC is hands-on
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Providing tangible results

Fighting pollution Performing controls via remote sensing Providing sound advice on chemical risks Preventing nuclear trafficking Supporting safe and secure structures Improving testing for safer food Fuelling the hydrogen economy Responding to natural disasters Enhancing reactor safety Supporting enlargement Providing quality assurance tools Supporting Europes information society Monitoring companies R&D spending

State of play
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EC customers use external models

(e.g., for air quality and climate negotiations)

These customers want in-house (i.e. JRC) capacity

Reasons: confidentiality, continuity, easy communication, budget The JRC delivers this in a limited way and on ad hoc basis Skills and competences needed for integrated modeling
are scarce in the JRC

Need for mutual education process (scientists policy makers)

Scientific credibility and users trust are in the making

Economic burden of global ozone pollution (year 2000) / 1

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Ozone at ground level

EDGAR 2000 global emissions

References: Dentener, et al., Atmos. Chem. & Phys., 2005

Olivier, Van Aardenne, et al., Env. Sci., 2005

Economic burden of global ozone pollution (year 2000) / 2

Visit IIASA of Prof. L. Hordijk, Nov. 2008 11

IIASA-FAO agro-ecological zones Damage to all crops (% of GDP)

References: Van Dingenen et al., Atm. Env., 2008

Wheat exposure to ozone

Modelling framework
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The synergy: Identify emission reduction targets for GHGs and air pollutants to achieve climate change and air quality objectives.

2011 EC Communication on role of Agriculture and Forestry

in the EUs Climate Change commitments

Analysis of the EC decarbonisation scenario and its impact

on natural resource management (with IES, IE and IPTS)

Improve Integrated Modelling Capacity:

Economics-Forestry-Agriculture-Climate (with IES and IPTS)

Global dimension of key environmental issues

Communication A resource-efficient Europe

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Existing models focus on specific policy areas and sectors such as energy and transport. They cannot capture fully the impact of resource use on ecosystems, enterprises, the economy and society as a whole, or the interdependence of policy measures. The Commission will undertake further analytical work to estimate economy-wide impacts, and to improve its ability to model in other areas relevant to resource efficiency, such as agriculture, industry and environment

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Reference Scenarios (Technology , Land-Use, Development, Geopolitics, ...)

Global / EU Energy Market Models Emission Control Technologies

Global / EU Transport Models

DRIVERS
Global / EU Agriculture Market Models Global / EU Activity Data Present / Future

Global / EU Forestry Market Models

Global / EU Urban Development Models

Geographically Explicit Information e.g. Population, Infrastructure, Land use

Geographically Explicit Emission Scenarios

Sectoral Mitigation Costs Aggregated Mitigation Costs ? Adaptation Potential

PRESSURES STATE
Geographically Explicit Land Use Scenarios Global and Regional Climate Models 2 Degrees Target? Models Health Hydrology Demography

Climate Change Impact

RESPONSE
Aggregated Damage Cost with/whithout Adaptation ? Multisectoral Macroeconomic Model

Agriculture

Coasts

Sectoral Economic Damage Assessment

IMPACTS

Integrated Assessment
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Integrated assessment is a process of combining, interpreting and communicating knowledge from different scientific disciplines in such a way

that the whole cause-effect chain of a problem

is comprehensively evaluated in order to inform decision makers

Why at JRC?
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Independent from Member States,

private sector and individual service interests

Proven ability for quantitative assessments Scientific credibility Customer credibility Multidisciplinary culture Continuity Consistent databases are available

Objective
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Arrange an adequate harmonisation between data bases and models

AND
organize and facilitate the information flow between these tools IN ORDER TO integrally assess the impacts of alternative policy scenarios for climate change, transport, energy, air quality, agriculture, etc.

External collaboration is needed

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Other organizations have developed integrated tools

(e.g. IMAGE, RAINS, GAINS) and sub-models (land use, forestry, agriculture, energy, transport, economics) that are being used for policy development in the Commission

They collaborate with each other and with the JRC in projects
funded by the EC Framework Programmes

These institutes and the JRC are also competitors for funding
IMPORTANT to develop proper rules for collaboration in order to guarantee that the best models are being used by the JRC and to avoid the duplication of work

Challenges
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Advocacy and prescriptions should be avoided (the JRC is not a

policy DG)

Uncertainties should be analyzed and communicated

Reference data to be well defined, quality controlled, accessible

Models and chains of models should be easily explainable to users

Organizational silos at JRC and at policy DGs The JRC multi-location situation Disciplinary protectiveness (turf) Hiring restrictions

JRC Modelling Workshop, Ispra, 9 February 2011

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Joint Research Centre (JRC)

IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Ispra - Italy

http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

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Thank you!

leendert.hordijk@ec.europa.eu