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Deutsche Lufthansa
Airlines / Germany
34 rue Mdric, 75017 Paris - France Tel +33 (0) 1 70 61 10 58 Email sales@alphavalue.eu Web ALPHAVALUE.COM
Latest
13/07/2011
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Target Price (6 months) Share Price
Upside : 20.4 %
17.1 14.2 6,519
NEGATIVE
Fact
Lufthansa increased the number of passengers by 6.4% to 5.88m in June which brings the ytd number to 31.2m (+14.8%). Simultaneously, the cargo volume was up by 3.7% to 159k tons and 14.8% to 953k tons, respectively.
11.8
17.7 Neutral
Analysis
The carrier continued increasing the offer more sharply than demand moved up. Consequently, the groups seat load factor (SLF) fell by 2.4pp to 81.0% in June and by 2.1pp to 75.7% in H1. The freight load factor (FLF) fell by 3.9pp to 68.6% in the past month and by 3.3pp to 69.1% in H1. The SLF continued to fall quite sharply on Asian/Pacific destinations. The number of passengers flying to/from these destinations is still rising strongly, but Lufthansa is continuing to increase the offer disproportionately (+14.5% in June and +13.1% in H1).
Company Page
Last updated: 08/05/2011 Adjusted P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Adjusted EPS () Growth in EPS (%) Dividend () Sales (M) EBIT margin (%) Attributable net profit (M) ROE (after tax) (%) Gearing (%)
12/12E 8.71 4.92 4.30 1.63 45.0 0.70 30,400 4.57 748 9.10 25.1
Sales by Geography
Valuation Summary
Benchmarks DCF NAV/SOTP per share P/E EV/Ebitda P/Book Dividend Yield TARGET PRICE DCF Calculation Value 16.2 15.9 20.1 19.0 18.7 28.5 17.1 Weight 40 % 40 % 5% 5% 5% 5% 100 %
Largest comparables IAG (International A... Amadeus IT Holding Ryanair Air France-KLM EasyJet
NAV/SOTP Calculation
12/10A 27,324 22.6 11.1 2,570 9.41 -1,591 1,123 1,095 -357 -182 194 165 46.0 -12.0 724 904
12/11E 29,300 7.23 2.51 3,249 11.1 -1,679 1,490 1,430 -746 -113
12/12E 30,400 3.75 2.55 3,458 11.4 -1,785 1,598 1,533 -552 -140
Balance Sheet
Goodwill Tangible fixed assets Financial fixed assets WCR Other assets Total assets (net of short term liab.) Ordinary shareholders' equity Quasi Equity & Preferred Minority interests Provisions for pensions Other provisions for risks and liabilities M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M
Total provisions for risks and liabilities Tax liabilities Other liabilities Net debt (cash) Total liab. and shareholders' equity
Cashflow Statement
EBITDA Change in WCR Actual div. received from equity holdi... Paid taxes Exceptional items Other operating cash flows Total operating cash flows Capital expenditure Total investment flows Net interest expense Dividends (parent company) Dividends to minorities interests New shareholders' equity Total financial flows Change in cash position Free cash flow (pre div.) M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M 14.0 1,005 240 -593 -0.03 -274 -751 0.34 199 27.0 2,765 -2,168 -1,838 -357 0.00 -18.0 -570 2,922 -2,450 -2,329 -746 -275 -20.0 -108 3,301 -2,550 -2,550 -552 -275 -21.0 2,570 204 74.0 -110 3,249 342 78.0 -177 3,458 124 82.0 -255
Capital Employed
Capital employed after depreciation M 16,931 17,293 17,849
Valuation Ratios
Reference P/E (benchmark) Free cash flow yield P/Book Dividend yield x % x % 8.24 4.02 0.72 4.60 12.6 -4.20 0.81 4.21 8.71 3.05 0.77 4.92
AlphaValue EV Calculation
Market cap + Provisions + Unrecognised acturial losses/(gains) M M M M M M M M x x 5,969 4,095 0.00 1,804 2,887 350 98.0 14,503 5.15 0.53 6,519 4,493 0.00 2,168 3,000 350 98.0 15,928 4.52 0.54 6,519 4,715 0.00 2,061 3,100 350 98.0 16,143 4.30 0.53
+ Net debt at year end + Leases debt equivalent - Financial fixed assets (fair value) + Minority interests (fair value) = EV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
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