June 2, 2008

To: Interested Parties

Fr: John Anzalone / Jeff Liszt
Re: Summary of Polling in Illinois CD-11
Democratic State Senator Debbie Halvorson is in a strong position to win this open-seat race. She
leads Republican Martin Ozinga by 11 points, and the worsening national political environment
has created an excellent opportunity for Democrats here. Bush has tarnished the Republican
brand, the district’s partisanship is trending Democratic, and by wide margins voters trust
Democrats more on the issues that matter most.
Halvorson currently leads Ozinga by 11 points
• Halvorson leads Martin Ozinga by a 43% to 32% margin, with Green Party candidate Jason
Wallace at 6%.
• Halvorson still has excellent expansion potential. Among undecided voters (18%)
Democrats lead the generic ballot 33% to 19%.
• In order to solidify and expand her support, Halvorson will need the resources to match
Ozinga’s ability to self-fund his campaign. When voters hear basic information about both
candidates, Halvorson’s vote expands seven points and she leads Ozinga 50% to 39%.
Democrats are gaining strength in this district
• Although this is a Republican-held seat, Democrats lead 42% to 36% on the generic ballot.
Two-thirds (67%) of the district have no primary voting history with either party, and
among these unaffiliated voters Democrats lead 44% to 33% on the generic ballot.
Democrats also hold a 41% to 35% advantage in partisan self-identification.
• Just 16% of voters say things in the United States are moving in the right direction – largely
because of the poor performance of George W. Bush and the Republicans in Congress.
Bush receives just a 36% favorable / 63% unfavorable rating. Republicans in Congress
receive a 40% favorable / 50% unfavorable rating, compared with 49% favorable / 42%
unfavorable for Democrats.
The election will be fought out on Democratic turf
• The economy dominates the most important issue question (52% list it as their first or
second choice). By a 45% to 32% margin, voters trust Democrats more on the economy,
and Halvorson leads 52% to 21% among voters who list the economy as their first or
second most important issue.
• Democrats hold a 26-point advantage on ending the war in Iraq (50% Democrat / 35%
Republican, and a 35-point advantage on making healthcare more affordable (51%
Democrat / 16% Republican),

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=500 telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in Illinois CD-11. Interviews
were conducted between May 18-22, 2008. Respondents were selected at random with interviews apportioned geographically based
on expected voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.