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Boston Beer Co Inc The

(sam)

August 11, 2011

Figures in Millions except per share values
Low Risk
5

Company Overview
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (Boston Beer) is a craft brewer in the United States.
Boston Beer produces malt beverages and hard cider products at the Companyowned breweries and under contract arrangements at other brewery locations. The
Company-owned breweries are located in Boston, Massachusetts (the Boston
Brewery), Cincinnati, Ohio (the Cincinnati Brewery) and Breinigsville, Pennsylvania
(the Pennsylvania Brewery). During the fiscal year ended December 25, 2010 (fiscal
2010), Boston Beer sold approximately approximately 2.3 million barrels of its
products (core brands) and brewed or packaged approximately 13,000 barrels under
contract (non-core brands) for third-parties. During fiscal 2010, the Company sold
over 20 beers under the Samuel Adams or the Sam Adams brand names, eight
flavored malt beverage products under the Twisted Tea brand name, and one hard
cider product under the HardCore brand name.

Strong Moat

1
0

Good Financials

Under Valued

Valuation
Current Price
NCAV
Total Net Reprod. Cost
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Ben Graham Formula

High Growth

Well Managed

$
$
$
$
$
$

85.40
2.95
16.44
34.58
94.61
83.81

Margin of Safety
5 Yr Price vs Intrinsic Value

120
100
80

Key Statistics
Mkt Cap ($M)
52 Wk High
52 Wk Low
% off 52Wk Low

Valuation Ratios
$
$
$

1,120.00
100.93
63.02
35.5%

P/E(TTM)
P/S(TTM)
P/Tang BV(MRQ)
FCF/EV (TTM)

Cash Flows

P/FCF(TTM)

Owner Earnings FCF

Earnings Yld (TTM)

5 yr FCF Growth
10 yr FCF Growth

31.4%
14.6%

19.8
2.3
6.1
6.9%
16.3
8.5%

Piotroski (TTM)
Altman (MRQ)

7
7.83

Beneish (TTM)

-2.68

Effectiveness
CROIC
Avg
FCF/S
Avg
ROA
Avg
ROE
Avg

6.8%
2.6%
11.7%

40
20
0
11/29/2004

11/29/2006

11/29/2008

Historical Price

Intrinsic Value

Balance Sheet

Margins & Profitability

Cash and Equiv

Short-Term Investments

$
$

66.30
-

Gross
Gross Margin
Operating
Operating Margin
Net Profit
Net Margin

Accts Rec
Inventory
Total Current Assets
Net PP&E
Intangibles
Total Assets

$
$
$
$
$
$

26.50
31.80
142.10
139.80
1.38
285.12

Financial Strength (MRQ)

Total Current Liabilities

82.60

Quick Ratio(MRQ)
Current Ratio(MRQ)
LTD/Eq(MRQ)
Tot D/Eq(MRQ)

Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities

$
$

103.26

16.8%

Efficiency
Rec Turnover(TTM)
Inv Turnover(TTM)
Asset Turnover(TTM)

60

17.9
7.4
1.7

1.3
1.7
0.0
0.0

11/29/2010
Buy Price

Refresh

Enter Ticker

Boston Beer Co Inc The

(sam)

Help

Figures in Millions except per share values

8/11/2011

sam

2001

Income Statement

2002

Revenue

186.8

75.0
40.2%
111.7
59.8%

% change from prev year

Cost of Revenues
COGS (%)
Gross Profit
Gross Profit (%)

2003

215.4
15.3%
82.2
38.2%
133.1
61.8%

2004

7
$
$
$

207.9
-3.4%
78.5
37.8%
129.4
62.2%

2005

6
$
$
$

217.2
4.5%
82.9
38.2%
134.3
61.8%

2006

5
$
$
$

238.3
9.7%
92.3
38.7%
146.0
61.3%

2007

4
$
$
$

285.4
19.8%
116.2
40.7%
169.3
59.3%

2008

3
$
$
$

341.6
19.7%
145.6
42.6%
196.0
57.4%

2009

2
$
$
$

398.4
16.6%
202.0
50.7%
196.4
49.3%

2010

1
$
$
$

415.1
4.2%
184.3
44.4%
230.7
55.6%

TTM

0
$
$
$

463.8
11.7%
190.0
41.0%
273.8
59.0%

$
$
$

476.3
2.7%
193.8
40.7%
282.5
59.3%

Operating Expenses
Selling, General & Admin. Expenses
SG&A (%)
Research & Development
R&D (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA (%)
Other Special Charges
Depreciation & Amortization
D&A (%)
Operating Income
Operating Income (%)

$
$
$
$
$
$

93.7
50.1%
0.0%
18.1
9.7%
6.7
3.6%

$
$
$
$
$

11.4
6.1%

$
$

0.0
0.3

Earnings Before Taxes

$
Income Taxes/(Credit)
$
Tax Rate %
Earnings After Taxes
$
Minority Interest
$
Net Income From Continuing
Operations
$
Net Income From Discontinued Operations$

11.8
5.4
45.9%
6.4
7.8
-

14.6
6.8%
0.0%
17.8
8.3%
6.2
2.9%

$
$
$
$
$

11.7
5.4%

$
$

1.3

$
$
$
$

13.0
5.5
42.4%
7.5
-

$
$

8.6
-

7.8
4.2%

$
$

0.48
0.47
16.3
16.7

$
$
$

47.9
19.2

14.6
7.0%
0.0%
23.0
11.0%
7.1
3.4%

$
$
$
$
$

15.9
7.6%

$
$

0.0

$
$
$
$

15.9
6.4
40.3%
9.5
-

$
$

10.6
-

8.6
4.0%

$
$

0.53
0.52
16.1
16.4

$
$
$

20.6
32.0
17.8

14.8
6.8%
0.0%
24.5
11.3%
5.0
2.3%

$
$
$
$
$

19.5
9.0%

$
$

(0.2)

$
$
$
$

19.2
7.6
39.5%
11.6
-

$
$

12.5
-

10.6
5.1%

$
$

0.72
0.70
14.7
15.1

$
$
$

27.8
15.1
10.4

17.3
7.3%
0.0%
27.8
11.7%
4.5
1.9%

$
$
$
$
$

23.3
9.8%

$
$

0.4

$
$
$
$

23.8
10.0
42.1%
13.8
-

$
$

15.6
-

12.5
5.8%

$
$

0.89
0.86
14.0
14.5

$
$
$

35.8
24.0
12.8

22.7
7.9%
0.0%
32.9
11.5%
5.0
1.7%

$
$
$
$
$

28.0
9.8%

$
$

0.7

$
$
$
$

28.6
13.6
47.5%
15.0
-

$
$

18.2
-

15.6
6.5%

$
$

1.10
1.07
14.1
14.5

$
$
$

41.5
22.4
9.5

24.6
7.2%
0.0%
47.0
13.8%
3.4
6.7
1.9%

$
$
$
$
$

40.3
11.8%

$
$

0.5

$
$
$
$

40.8
19.2
47.0%
21.6
-

$
$

22.5
-

18.2
6.4%

$
$

1.31
1.27
13.9
14.3

$
$
$

63.1
19.2
17.8

35.0
8.8%
0.0%
28.5
7.2%
1.9
12.5
3.1%

$
$
$
$
$

16.0
4.0%

$
$

0.2

$
$
$
$

16.2
7.8
48.2%
8.4
-

$
$

8.1
-

22.5
6.6%

$
$

1.58
1.53
14.2
14.7

$
$
$

79.3
16.2
18.0

158.5
38.2%
0.0%
72.2
17.4%
1.0
16.9
4.1%

$
$
$
$
$

55.3
13.3%

$
$

(0.0)

$
$
$
$

55.3
23.2
41.9%
32.1
-

$
$

31.1
-

8.1
2.0%

$
$

0.58
0.56
13.9
14.4

$
$
$

9.1
31.1

174.8
37.7%
0.0%
98.9
21.3%
0.3
17.4
3.8%

$
$
$
$
$

189.1
39.7%
0.0%
93.5
19.6%
20.8
17.9
3.8%

81.5
17.6%

75.6
15.9%

$
$

(0.1)

$
$

(0.1)

$
$

$
$

$
$

81.3
31.0
38.1%
50.3
-

$
$

75.4
36.0
47.7%
39.4
-

$
$

50.1
-

$
$

59.6
-

31.1
7.5%

50.1
10.8%

59.6
12.5%

$
$

2.21
2.17
14.1
14.3

$
$

3.67
3.52
13.7
14.2

$
$

4.48
4.25
13.2

$
$
$

55.5
17.9

$
$
$

49.0
20.0

$
$
$

Other Income and Expense

Interest Expense
Other Income

Net Income From Total Operations

Net Income (%)

Shares and EPS

Total Basic EPS
Fully Diluted EPS
Basic Shares Outstanding
Diluted Shares Outstanding
User Defined Shares Outstanding

Balance Sheet

MRQ

Assets
Cash & Equivalents
Short-Term Investments
Net Receivables

9.3

Other Current Assets

4.1

-7.2%
8.3
-10.5%
4.8

-41.5%
9.9
18.6%
4.6

22.9%
12.6
27.0%
2.6

-25.7%
13.6
8.7%
2.1

Total Current Assets

Fixed Assets
Intangible Assets
Other Long-Term Assets
Total Long-Term Assets

$
$
$
$
$

80.5
23.9
1.4
1.8
27.0

$
$
$
$
$

83.5
20.2
1.4
1.7
23.3

$
$
$
$
$

67.8
17.1
1.4
1.1
19.5

$
$
$
$
$

87.8
17.2
1.4
1.1
19.7

$
$
$
$
$

Total Assets

107.5

106.8

87.4

107.5

Accounts payable
Short-Term Debt
Taxes Payable
Accrued Liabilities
Other Current Liabilities

$
$
$
$
$

11.2
13.2
13.2
13.2

$
$
$
$
$

9.0
15.9
15.9
15.9

$
$
$
$
$

6.4
15.5
15.5
15.5

$
$
$
$
$

Total Current Liabilities

Long-Term Debt
Other Liabilities
Deferred Income Taxes
Minority Interest
Total Long-Term Liabilities

$
$
$
$
$
$

24.4
1.3
3.6
4.9

$
$
$
$
$
$

24.9
0.7
2.4
3.1

$
$
$
$
$
$

21.9
0.7
2.2
2.9

Total Liabilities
Retained Earnings
Preferred Equity

$
$
$

29.3
55.6
-

$
$
$

28.0
64.2
-

$
$
$

Total Equity
Total Liabilities & Equity

78.2

107.5

78.8

106.8

% change from prev year

Inventories
% change from prev year

86.4%
17.0
24.8%
3.4

89.2
26.5
1.4
2.0
29.9

$
$
$
$
$

119.1

9.7
16.5
16.5
16.5

$
$
$
$
$

$
$
$
$
$
$

26.2
0.8
2.1
2.9

24.8
74.8
-

$
$
$

62.5

87.4

1.1%
18.1
6.2%
4.2

120.6
30.7
1.4
1.8
33.9

$
$
$
$
$

154.5

11.4
17.4
17.4
17.4

$
$
$
$
$

$
$
$
$
$
$

28.7
1.9
2.4
4.3

29.1
12.6
-

$
$
$

78.4

107.5

73.0%
22.7
25.5%
6.0

135.8
46.2
1.4
12.5
60.1

$
$
$
$
$

195.9

17.9
22.9
22.9
22.9

$
$
$
$
$

$
$
$
$
$
$

40.9
3.5
1.5
5.0

33.1
15.6
-

$
$
$

86.0

119.1

-42.6%
25.6
12.6%
14.1

68.9
147.9
1.4
1.6
150.9

$
$
$
$
$

219.8

17.7
40.4
40.4
40.3

$
$
$
$
$

$
$
$
$
$
$

58.1
3.0
1.2
4.2

45.9
28.5
-

$
$
$

108.6

154.5

66.3
26.5

12.1%
26.6
4.1%
16.4

22.5%
31.8
-6.1%
17.6

113.0
147.0
1.4
1.5
149.9

$
$
$
$
$

112.0
142.9
1.4
2.3
146.5

$
$
$
$
$

142.2
139.8
1.4
1.8
143.1

262.9

258.5

285.3

20.2
44.4
44.4
46.9

$
$
$
$
$

25.3
48.5
48.5
48.5

$
$
$
$
$

19.4
52.8
52.8
52.8

$
$
$
$
$

25.0
57.6
57.6

$
$
$
$
$
$

67.1
3.1
9.6
12.7

$
$
$
$
$
$

73.8
2.6
13.4
16.0

$
$
$
$
$
$

72.2
3.7
17.1
20.7

$
$
$
$
$
$

82.6
3.3
17.4
20.7

62.3
44.9
-

$
$
$

79.7
37.7
-

$
$
$

89.8
61.7
-

$
$
$

92.9
43.9
-

$
$
$

103.3
53.2
-

133.6

140.0

173.2

165.6

182.0

195.9

219.8

262.9

258.5

285.3

Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity

Cash Flows Statement

TTM

Cash Flows From Operating Activities

Net Income
Depreciation & Amortization
Deferred Taxes
Other

$
$
$
$

7.8
6.7
2.9

$
$
$
$

8.6
6.2
(0.1)

$
$
$
$

10.6
7.1
0.5

$
$
$
$

12.5
5.0
2.2

$
$
$
$

15.6
4.5
7.8

$
$
$
$

18.2
5.0
6.5

$
$
$
$

22.5
6.7
26.4

$
$
$
$

8.1
12.5
11.5

$
$
$
$

31.1
16.9
15.4

$
$
$
$

50.1
17.4
(4.2)

$
$
$
$

59.6
17.9
5.6

Net Cash From Operating Activities

19.3

13.8

19.6

19.3

28.8

29.0

53.8

39.8

65.6

67.8

83.1

(3.3)
0.3
(3.0)

$
$
$
$

(2.3)
(27.9)
(30.3)

$
$
$
$

(1.7)
16.7
15.0

$
$
$
$

(4.6)
(9.3)
(13.8)

$
$
$
$

(14.0)
0.1
(13.8)

$
$
$
$

(9.1)
0.1
(9.0)

$
$
$
$

(25.6)
(11.5)
(37.1)

$
$
$
$

(59.5)
(45.0)
(45.0)
(104.5)

$
$
$
$

(17.0)
(17.0)

$
$
$
$

(13.6)
(13.6)

$
$
$
$

(15.4)
(15.4)

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

0.5
(4.1)
(3.5)
35.1
47.9
12.8

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

1.0
(9.9)
(8.8)
45.8
20.6
(25.2)

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

2.4
(29.8)
(27.5)
20.6
27.8
7.2

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

2.6
2.6
27.8
35.8
8.0

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

3.0
(12.5)
(9.3)
35.8
41.5
5.7

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

4.5
(5.3)
1.7
41.5
63.1
21.6

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

3.4
(6.1)
(0.5)
63.1
79.3
16.1

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

5.3
(15.3)
(5.6)
79.3
9.1
(70.2)

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

2.8
(7.1)
(2.2)
9.1
55.5
46.4

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

3.7
(68.0)
(60.8)
55.5
49.0
(6.5)

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

1.9
(60.4)
(55.1)
45.3
66.3
21.0

$
$
$
$

19.3
(3.3)
16.0
11.2

$
$
$
$

13.8
(2.3)
11.5
12.4

$
$
$
$

19.6
(1.7)
17.9
15.9

$
$
$
$

19.3
(4.6)
14.7
13.0

$
$
$
$

28.8
(14.0)
14.9
6.1

$
$
$
$

29.0
(9.1)
19.9
14.1

$
$
$
$

53.8
(25.6)
28.2
6.9

$
$
$
$

39.8
(59.5)
(19.7)
(37.0)

$
$
$
$

65.6
(17.0)
48.6
32.0

$
$
$
$

67.8
(13.6)
54.2
54.3

$
$
$
$

83.1
(15.4)
67.7
82.9

Cash Flows From Investing Activities

Capital Expenditures
Acquisitions
Sale of Assets
Net Cash From Investing Activities

$
$
$
$

Cash Flows From Financing Activities

Issuance of Capital Stock
Repurchase of Capital Stock
Net Issuance of Stock
Issuance of Debt
Repayment of Debt
Net Issuance of Debt
Dividends Paid
Cash from Financing
Cash at Beginning of the Period
Cash at End of the Period
Change in Cash

Free Cash Flow

Cash from Operations
Cap Ex
Free Cash Flow
Owner Earnings FCF
User Defined

Boston Beer Co Inc The

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8/11/2011
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

TTM

Income Statement
Revenue

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Cost of Revenues

40.2%

38.2%

37.8%

38.2%

38.7%

40.7%

42.6%

50.7%

44.4%

41.0%

40.7%

Gross Profit

59.8%

61.8%

62.2%

61.8%

61.3%

59.3%

57.4%

49.3%

55.6%

59.0%

59.3%

39.7%

Operating Expenses
Selling, General & Admin. Expenses

50.1%

6.8%

7.0%

6.8%

7.3%

7.9%

7.2%

8.8%

38.2%

37.7%

Research & Development

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

EBITDA

9.7%

8.3%

11.0%

11.3%

11.7%

11.5%

13.8%

7.2%

17.4%

21.3%

19.6%

Other Special Charges

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1.0%

0.5%

0.2%

0.1%

4.4%

Depreciation & Amortization

3.6%

2.9%

3.4%

2.3%

1.9%

1.7%

1.9%

3.1%

4.1%

3.8%

3.8%

Operating Income

6.1%

5.4%

7.6%

9.0%

9.8%

9.8%

11.8%

4.0%

13.3%

17.6%

15.9%

Interest Expense

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Other Income

0.2%

0.6%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Earnings Before Taxes

6.3%

6.0%

7.6%

8.9%

10.0%

10.0%

12.0%

4.1%

13.3%

17.5%

15.8%

Income Taxes/(Credit)

2.9%

2.6%

3.1%

3.5%

4.2%

4.8%

5.6%

2.0%

5.6%

6.7%

7.6%

Earnings After Taxes

3.4%

3.5%

4.6%

5.4%

5.8%

5.3%

6.3%

2.1%

7.7%

10.9%

8.3%

Minority Interest
Net Income From Continuing
Operations
Net Income From Discontinued
Operations

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

4.2%

4.0%

5.1%

5.8%

6.5%

6.4%

6.6%

2.0%

7.5%

10.8%

12.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Net Income From Total Operations

4.2%

4.0%

5.1%

5.8%

6.5%

6.4%

6.6%

2.0%

7.5%

10.8%

12.5%

Other Income and Expense

Balance Sheet

MRQ

Assets
Cash & Equivalents
Short-Term Investments
Net Receivables
Inventories

44.5%

19.3%

31.8%

33.3%

34.9%

40.9%

40.5%

4.1%

21.1%

18.9%

23.2%

0.0%

30.0%

17.3%

22.3%

18.8%

12.4%

8.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

17.9%

16.7%

11.9%

11.9%

8.0%

11.5%

9.2%

14.1%

6.8%

7.7%

9.3%

8.7%

7.8%

11.3%

11.7%

11.5%

11.0%

9.2%

10.3%

9.7%

10.3%

11.2%

Other Current Assets

3.8%

4.5%

5.3%

2.4%

1.7%

2.2%

2.2%

2.7%

5.4%

6.3%

6.2%

Total Current Assets

74.9%

78.2%

77.6%

81.7%

74.9%

78.0%

69.3%

31.3%

43.0%

43.3%

49.8%

Fixed Assets

22.2%

18.9%

19.5%

16.0%

22.3%

19.9%

23.6%

67.3%

55.9%

55.3%

49.0%

Intangible Assets

1.3%

1.3%

1.6%

1.3%

1.2%

0.9%

0.7%

0.6%

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

Other Long-Term Assets

1.6%

1.6%

1.3%

1.0%

1.6%

1.2%

6.4%

0.7%

0.6%

0.9%

0.6%

Total Long-Term Assets

25.1%

21.8%

22.4%

18.3%

25.1%

22.0%

30.7%

68.7%

57.0%

56.7%

50.2%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Accounts payable

10.4%

8.4%

7.3%

9.1%

9.6%

11.6%

9.0%

9.2%

9.6%

7.5%

8.8%

Short-Term Debt

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Taxes Payable

12.3%

14.9%

17.7%

15.4%

14.6%

14.8%

20.6%

20.2%

18.4%

20.4%

0.0%

Accrued Liabilities

12.3%

14.9%

17.7%

15.4%

14.6%

14.8%

20.6%

20.2%

18.4%

20.4%

20.2%

Other Current Liabilities

12.3%

14.9%

17.7%

15.3%

14.6%

14.8%

20.6%

21.3%

18.5%

20.4%

20.2%

Total Current Liabilities

22.7%

23.3%

25.1%

24.4%

24.1%

26.5%

29.6%

30.5%

28.1%

27.9%

28.9%

Long-Term Debt

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Other Liabilities

1.2%

0.7%

0.8%

0.7%

1.6%

2.3%

1.5%

1.4%

1.0%

1.4%

1.2%

Deferred Income Taxes

3.3%

2.3%

2.5%

1.9%

2.0%

1.0%

0.6%

4.4%

5.1%

6.6%

6.1%

Minority Interest

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Total Long-Term Liabilities

4.6%

2.9%

3.4%

2.7%

3.6%

3.2%

2.1%

5.8%

6.1%

8.0%

7.3%

Total Liabilities

27.3%

26.2%

28.4%

27.1%

27.8%

29.7%

31.8%

36.3%

34.1%

36.0%

36.2%

Retained Earnings

51.8%

60.1%

85.6%

11.7%

13.1%

18.4%

22.9%

17.1%

23.5%

17.0%

18.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

72.7%

73.8%

71.6%

72.9%

72.2%

70.3%

68.2%

63.7%

65.9%

64.0%

63.8%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Total Assets

Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity

Preferred Equity
Total Equity
Total Liabilities & Equity

Cash Flows Statement

TTM

Cash Flows From Operating Activities

Net Income

40.6%

61.9%

53.8%

64.9%

53.9%

62.8%

41.8%

20.3%

47.5%

73.9%

71.7%

Depreciation & Amortization

34.5%

44.5%

36.2%

26.1%

15.7%

17.2%

12.4%

31.4%

25.8%

25.7%

21.6%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

15.0%

-0.7%

2.5%

11.4%

27.0%

22.4%

49.1%

28.9%

23.5%

-6.2%

6.7%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

109.5%

7.7%

-11.5%

33.0%

100.9%

100.5%

69.0%

57.0%

100.0%

100.1%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

43.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sale of Assets

-10.0%

92.2%

111.4%

67.3%

-0.7%

-1.1%

31.0%

43.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Net Cash From Investing Activities

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Deferred Taxes
Other
Net Cash From Operating Activities

Cash Flows From Investing Activities

Capital Expenditures
Acquisitions

Cash Flows From Financing Activities

Issuance of Capital Stock

-15.1%

-11.5%

-8.7%

100.0%

-31.8%

269.8%

-635.0%

-94.7%

-129.4%

-6.0%

-3.5%

Repurchase of Capital Stock

115.1%

112.5%

108.7%

0.0%

135.2%

-317.0%

1120.4%

275.2%

326.4%

111.9%

109.7%

Net Issuance of Stock

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Issuance of Debt

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Repayment of Debt

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Net Issuance of Debt

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Dividends Paid

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Cash from Financing

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Color Coding

8/11/2011
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Financial Statistics & Ratios

Profitability Ratios
P/E

30.06

24.52

24.86

27.12

25.09

26.69

29.48

41.14

0.00

25.55

P/S

1.26

0.97

1.26

1.56

1.64

1.70

1.94

0.84

0.00

2.76

P/BV

3.01

2.66

4.20

4.33

4.54

4.47

4.96

2.38

0.00

7.74

P/Tang BV

3.07

2.71

4.29

4.40

4.61

4.53

5.01

2.40

0.00

7.80

20.27

2.98

3.66

4.67

5.65

6.49

8.39

5.72

0.00

20.21

P/CF
P/FCF

19.04

13.16

20.24

55.51

27.64

69.99

-17.89

10.39

0.00

15.45

ROE

10.0%

10.8%

16.9%

16.0%

18.1%

16.8%

16.8%

5.8%

18.0%

30.3%

ROA

7.3%

8.0%

12.1%

11.6%

13.1%

11.8%

11.5%

3.7%

11.8%

19.4%

Quick Ratio

2.92

3.02

2.65

2.87

2.63

2.53

2.03

0.69

1.19

1.18

Current Ratio

3.30

3.36

3.10

3.35

3.10

2.95

2.34

1.03

1.53

1.55

Total Debt/Equity Ratio

0.37

0.35

0.40

0.37

0.38

0.42

0.47

0.57

0.52

0.56

Long Term Debt/Equity Ratio

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Short Term Debt/Equity Ratio

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Solvency

Efficiency Ratios
Asset Turnover

1.74

2.02

2.38

2.02

2.00

1.85

1.74

1.81

1.58

1.79

Cash % of Revenue

25.6%

9.6%

13.4%

16.5%

17.4%

22.1%

23.2%

2.3%

13.4%

10.6%

Receivables % of Revenue

10.3%

8.3%

5.0%

5.9%

4.0%

6.2%

5.3%

7.8%

4.3%

4.3%

SG&A % of Revenue

50.1%

6.8%

7.0%

6.8%

7.3%

7.9%

7.2%

8.8%

38.2%

37.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Receivables Turnover

0.41

0.46

0.75

1.08

1.39

1.33

1.26

0.33

1.27

2.65

Days Sales Outstanding

37.6

30.2

18.3

21.6

14.6

22.7

19.2

28.5

15.7

15.8

Inventory Turnover

8.05

9.31

8.61

7.39

7.04

7.57

8.29

9.90

7.64

7.29

Average Age of Inventory (Days)

45.35

39.21

42.39

49.40

51.82

48.20

44.02

36.86

47.79

50.10

Intangibles % of Book Value

1.8%

1.7%

2.2%

1.8%

1.6%

1.3%

1.0%

1.0%

0.8%

0.8%

Inventory % of Revenue

5.0%

3.9%

4.8%

5.8%

5.7%

6.0%

5.3%

5.7%

6.2%

5.7%

LT-Debt as % of Invested Capital

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

ST-Debt as % of Invested Capital

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

LT-Debt as % of Total Debt

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

ST-Debt as % of Total Debt

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Total Debt % of Total Assets

27.3%

26.2%

28.4%

27.1%

27.8%

29.7%

31.8%

36.3%

34.1%

36.0%

Working Capital % of Price

23.8%

28.0%

17.5%

18.2%

15.5%

16.4%

11.7%

0.5%

0.0%

3.1%

R&D % of Revenue

Liquidity Ratios

Capital Structure Ratios

Boston Beer Co Inc The

(sam)
8/11/2011

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Enter Ticker

Fiscal Year
Cash Flow Data

Shares Out.
#VALUE!

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CLEAR

Trend

2001

Cash from Operations

Capex
Cash Flow
Owner Earnings FCF

M.O.S

13.22

Growth

Discount %

14.0%

9.0%

Terminal %

Select FCF

5%

Owner Earnings

25%

Select input with

each list or enter
your own value

Adjust 2010 FCF

14.0%

Current Price

Intrinsic $

Buy Under

$85.40

$94.61

$70.96

Actual M.O.S 52 Wk High

10%

$100.93

52 Wk Low

$63.02

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

$19.3
$3.3
$11.6
$11.2
YOY% Change

$13.8
$2.3
$70.5
$12.4
10.2%

$19.6
$1.7
$71.8
$15.9
28.8%

$19.3
$4.6
$72.5
$13.0
-18.6%

$28.8
$14.0
$69.1
$6.1
-52.9%

$29.0
$9.1
$74.8
$14.1
131.3%

$53.8
$25.6
$79.0
$6.9
-50.9%

$39.8
$59.5
$58.2
($37.0)
-634.0%

$65.6
$17.0
$41.3
$32.0
-186.5%

59.8%
6.1%
4.2%

61.8%
5.4%
4.0%

62.2%
7.6%
5.1%

61.8%
9.0%
5.8%

61.3%
9.8%
6.5%

59.3%
9.8%
6.4%

57.4%
11.8%
6.6%

49.3%
4.0%
2.0%

$0.47
45.9%

$0.52
42.4%

$0.70
40.3%

$0.86
39.5%

$1.07
42.1%

$1.27
47.5%

$1.53
47.0%

13.5%
6.0%
8.0
7.3%
10.0%

15.1%
5.7%
9.3
8.0%
10.8%

24.3%
7.7%
8.6
12.1%
16.9%

16.0%
6.0%
7.4
11.6%
16.0%

6.8%
2.6%
7.0
13.1%
18.1%

12.4%
4.9%
7.6
11.8%
16.8%

37.5%
0.0%
38.3%

35.5%
0.0%
44.2%

39.7%
0.0%
64.2%

37.1%
0.0%
44.6%

38.5%
0.0%
18.5%

2006-2010
11.2%
40.0%
12.4%
4.9%
11.8%
16.8%
57.4%
11.8%
6.6%
12.9%
29.0%
23.7%

2005-2008
17.9%
0.0%
5.9%
2.3%
11.6%
16.8%
58.3%
9.8%
6.5%
18.7%
-19.4%
11.4%

2006-2009
17.0%
31.4%
8.7%
3.5%
11.6%
16.8%
56.5%
10.8%
6.5%
13.3%
19.6%
31.3%

2007-2010
7.5%
98.5%
11.0%
4.9%
11.7%
17.4%
56.5%
12.6%
7.0%
10.7%
32.0%
8.0%

2002-2009
12.1%
14.6%
13.8%
5.3%
11.7%
16.8%
60.3%
9.4%
6.1%
9.8%
22.6%
24.9%

2003-2010
15.2%
19.1%
14.2%
5.5%
11.8%
16.9%
59.2%
9.8%
6.5%
12.1%
26.0%
19.4%

2001-2006
6.9%
4.7%
14.3%
5.9%
11.7%
16.4%
61.5%
8.3%
5.4%
8.9%
22.0%
8.5%

2002-2007
11.3%
-10.9%
13.8%
5.3%
11.7%
16.8%
61.5%
9.4%
6.1%
9.7%
24.1%
31.2%

$67.8
$13.6
$63.4

TTM

69.4%

$83.1
$15.4
$39.3
$82.9
52.8%

55.6%
13.3%
7.5%

59.0%
17.6%
10.8%

59.3%
15.9%
12.5%

$0.56
48.2%

$2.17
41.9%

$3.52
38.1%

$4.25
47.7%

5.0%
2.0%
8.3
11.5%
16.8%

-24.3%
-9.3%
9.9
3.7%
5.8%

16.9%
7.7%
7.6
11.8%
18.0%

29.1%
11.7%
7.3
19.4%
30.3%

40.9%
17.4%
6.1
20.9%
32.7%

42.3%
0.0%
30.8%

46.6%
0.0%
11.1%

56.9%
0.0%
-46.5%

51.9%
0.0%
35.7%

56.1%
0.0%
58.4%

56.7%
0.0%
80.3%

2005-2007
25.0%
6.6%
6.8%
2.6%
11.8%
16.8%
59.3%
9.8%
6.5%
19.7%
19.6%
36.6%

2006-2008
13.7%
0.0%
5.0%
2.0%
11.5%
16.8%
57.4%
9.8%
6.4%
18.1%
-33.6%
17.3%

2007-2009
14.0%
114.9%
5.0%
2.0%
11.5%
16.8%
55.6%
11.8%
6.6%
10.2%
19.1%
10.4%

2008-2010
8.8%
0.0%
16.9%
7.7%
11.8%
18.0%
55.6%
13.3%
7.5%
7.9%
150.7%
30.5%

Median
14.0%
31.4%
6.8%
2.6%
11.7%
16.8%
57.4%
10.8%
6.5%
13.3%
19.6%
22.8%

2003-2008
17.8%
0.0%
9.6%
3.8%
11.7%
16.8%
60.3%
9.4%
6.1%
13.9%
-4.4%
15.2%

2004-2009
17.4%
19.8%
9.6%
3.8%
11.7%
16.8%
58.3%
9.8%
6.5%
13.8%
20.3%
27.7%

2005-2010
14.2%
54.8%
9.6%
3.8%
11.8%
17.4%
58.2%
10.8%
6.6%
14.2%
26.9%
18.7%

2001-2010
16.4%
37.1%
12.4%
5.9%
11.7%
16.8%
59.6%
9.4%
6.1%
19.9%
49.6%
28.6%

Median
14.2%
14.6%
13.0%
5.3%
11.7%
16.8%
60.3%
9.4%
6.1%
12.1%
22.6%
19.4%

$54.3

Margins
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Net Margin

EPS & Tax

Diluted EPS
Tax Rate

Efficiency & Profitability

CROIC
FCF/Sales
Inventory Turnover
Return On Assets (ROA)
Retun On Equity (ROE)

Debt Related
Debt to Equity
Capitalization Ratio
FCF to Total Debt
FCF to Short Term Debt
FCF to Long Term Debt

5 Year Multi-Year Performance

Tang Shareholder Equity
Owner Earnings FCF
CROIC
FCF/Sales
ROA
ROE
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Net Margin
Revenue Growth
Earnings Growth
Cash from Ops Growth

2005-2009
19.4%
51.3%
6.8%
2.6%
11.8%
16.8%
57.4%
9.8%
6.5%
14.9%
19.3%
22.8%

10 Year Multi-Year Performance

Tang Shareholder Equity
Owner Earnings FCF
CROIC
FCF/Sales
ROA
ROE
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Net Margin
Revenue Growth
Earnings Growth
Cash from Ops Growth

2001-2008
8.8%
0.0%
13.0%
5.3%
11.6%
16.4%
60.5%
8.3%
5.4%
11.4%
2.5%
10.9%

Projection of future Free Cash Flow

Yearly Growth Input Field
14%
Terminal Growth
5%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

$61.86
2021
166.80

$70.52
2022
175.14

$80.39
2023
183.89

$87.23
2024
193.09

$98.22
2025
202.74

$110.59
2026
212.88

$124.52
2027
223.52

$128.14
2028
234.70

$142.68
2029
246.44

Calculation
Total Cash

$
$
$
$
$
$

66.32
66.32
1,250.74
13.22
94.61
25%
70.96
85.40
10%

$158.85
2030
258.76

Discount Rates
10% $
12% $

Growth Rates

0%
10%
10%

14%

$
16% $
18% $

7%
90.76 $
101.49 $
113.55
127.09
142.29

$
$
$

8%
83.08 $
92.67 $
103.45
115.54
129.10

9%
76.34
84.95

$
$

94.61

$
$

105.44
117.56

$
$
$

10%
70.41 $
78.16 $
86.84
96.57
107.45

$
$
$

11%
65.17
72.17
80.00
88.76
98.55

Sensitivity Matrix: Margin of Safety %

Discount Rates

Variable Fields
Intangibles% add to DCF
Decay Rate (Yr4E-Yr7E)
Extra Decay (Yr8E-Yr10E)

Sensitivity Matrix: Growth vs Discount Rate

$

MAX(0,Current Liabilities-Current Assets

$

Excess Cash
Adding some Intangibles
Present Value
Shares Outstanding
Per Share Value
Margin of Safety
Purchase Price
Current Price
Actual M.O.S

2020

Growth Rates

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

10%

5.9%

-2.8%

-11.9%

-21.3%

-31.0%

12%

15.9%

7.8%

-0.5%

-9.3%

-18.3%

14%

24.8%
32.8%
40.0%

17.4%
26.1%
33.8%

9.7%

1.7%
11.6%
20.5%

-6.7%
3.8%
13.3%

16%
18%

19.0%
27.4%

Boston Beer Co Inc The

(sam)

Shares Out.

M.O.S

13.22

66%

Current Price

Intrinsic $

Buy Under

$85.40

$83.81

$28.49

#VALUE!

Growth

Projection

EPS

Corp Bond

23.0%

Linear
Regression

$2.13

4.64

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8/11/2011

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Actual M.O.S 52 Wk High 52 Wk Low

-2%

$100.93

$63.02

5 Yr EPS Growth

2005-2009
19.3%

2006-2010
29.0%

2005-2008
-19.4%

2006-2009
19.6%

2007-2010
32.0%

2005-2007
19.6%

2006-2008
-33.6%

2007-2009 2008-2010
19.1%
150.7%

10 Yr EPS Growth

2001-2008
2.5%

2002-2009
22.6%

2003-2010
26.0%

2001-2006
22.0%

2002-2007
24.1%

2003-2008
-4.4%

2004-2009
20.3%

2005-2010
26.9%

2001
0.47
2011E
Forecast Method
$
2.37
Linear Regression Method $
2.13
Diltued EPS

2002
0.52
2012E
$
2.92
$
2.62
$

2003
$

0.70

2004
0.86

2005
1.07

2006
$

1.27

Graham Value Calculation

Normal Earnings
Growth Rate
Corp Bond Rate
Per Share Value
MOS
Purchase Price
Current Price
Actual Discount

$
$

2007
1.53

$3.52

2.13
23.02%
4.64
83.81
66%
28.49
$85.40
-2%

$2.62
$2.17

$0.47

$0.52

$0.70

$0.86

2001

2002

2003

2004

$1.07

$1.27

$2.13

$1.53
$0.56

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011E 2012E

2008
0.56

Median
19.6%

Median
22.6%

2009
2.17

2010
3.52

TTM
4.25

Boston Beer Co Inc The

(sam)

Shares Out.
#VALUE!

13.22

Source

Normalized Income

Discount Rate

R&D Years

SG&A %

9%

25%

$51.76

ADVFN

8/11/2011
Figures in Millions except per share values

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Current Price

EPV

Net Reproduction Value

EPV MOS

NCAV

52 Wk High

52 Wk Low

$85.40

$34.58

$16.44

-147.0%

$1.61

$100.93

$63.02

Per Share
$
53.87
$
38.48

+ Cash - Debt
$
773.7
$
570.2

Asset Valuation Section

EPV Valuation Section

Data: Asset Valuation

Values for Normalized Income

Shares Outstanding
Balance Sheet Assets
Adjusted Assets
Total Liabilities
Total Equity

$
$
$
$

13.2
285.1
285.1
103.3
181.9

Average SGA %
Marketing/Brand Value
R&D Value
Cash Needed for Business
Interest Bearing Debt
Non Interest Bearing Debt
Excess Cash

$
$
$
$
$
$

20.0%
92.6
4.8
103.3
57.0

2010 Owner Earnings FCF

Normalized Income
Avg Adj. Income 5 yrs
TTM Adjusted Income

54.3
51.8
50.1
91.4

$
$
$
$
$
$

9.0%
51.8
16.2
4.8
66.3
61.5

Data: EPV
Cost of Capital
Normalized Adjusted Income
Average Maintenance Capex
Interest Bearing Debt
1% of sales
Cash & Equiv
Cash - Debt

Calculation: Asset Valuation

Shares

Tangible BV

Total
$
180

Per Share
$ 13.65

Adjusted BV
NCAV
Reprod. Cost of Assets
Reprod. Cost of Assets BV
Total Net Reprod. Cost

$
$
$
$
$

$
$
$
$
$

182
21
378
274
217

Cost of Capital Rates

5%
7%

Error

Adjustments:
Assets

Book Value

Cash & Equivalents

Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable - Gross
Other Receivable

$
$
$
$

66.3
26.5
-

$
$
$
$

66.3
26.5
-

Receivables

26.5

26.5

Inventories: Raw Materials

Inventories: Work in Progress
Inventories: Purchased Components
Inventories: Finished Goods
Inventories: Other
Inventories -- Total
Prepaid Expenses
Current Defered Income Taxes
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Goodwill, Net
Intangibles, Net
Intangibles
Property/Plant/Equipment - Net

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

20.4
5.3
6.1
31.8
13.9
3.6
142.1
1.4
1.4
139.8
1.8
285.1

Statement Source Date:

Fixed BV

13.22

Calculation: EPV

13.76
1.61
28.57
20.76
16.44

Quarterly numbers based on:

Long Term Investments

Note Receivable - Long Term
Other Long Term Assets, Total
Total Assets

$
$
$
$

Multiplier

$
$

EPV
712.1
508.7

$
$

Per Share
58.52
43.13

9%

395.6

29.93

457.2

34.58

11%

323.7

24.48

385.2

29.14

13%

273.9

20.72

335.4

25.37

2-Aug-11
Reproduction
Asset Value

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

31.8
13.9
3.6
142.1
1.4
1.4
139.8
1.8
285.1

Adjustments:
Liabilities & Equity
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses
Accrued Liabilities
Notes Payable/Short Term Debt
Current Port. of LT Debt/Capital
Leases
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
Capital Lease Obligations
Deferred Income Taxes
Minority Interest
Total Other Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Common Stock Equity
Retained Earnings
Total Capitalization
Total Equity
Total Liabilities & Equity

Book Value
$
25.0
$
$
57.6
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

82.6
17.4
3.3
103.3
182.0
53.2
182.0
182.0
285.3

Fixed BV

Multiplier

Reproduction
Liability Value
$
25.0
$
$
57.6
$

$
$

82.6

$
$
$
$
$

17.4
3.3

103.3

$
$
$

182.0
53.2
182.0

$
$

181.9
285.3

Boston Beer Co Inc The

(sam)
8/11/2011
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Current Price

NNWC

NNWC %

NCAV

NCAV %

Data

$85.40

-$0.09

-97615.7%

$2.95

-2799.6%

Statements

Help
Numbers as of 2011/06

Figures in Millions except per share values

Cash & Equivalents
Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable
Other Receivable
Receivables
Inventories: Raw Materials
Inventories: Work in Progress
Inventories: Purchased Components
Inventories: Finished Goods
Inventories: Other
Inventories -- Total
Current Assets - Total
Total Liabilities
Shares Outstanding

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

(go to SEC for accurate numbers)

BV
CLEAR
Multiplier
BV
66.32
100%
26.50
75%
26.50
50%
31.83
142.20
103.26
13.22

Total Current Assets

Market Cap & Share Price
Net Net Working Capital
Discount to NNWC
Net Current Asset Value
Discount to NCAV

Net Net Value

$
66.32

19.88

$
$
$

15.91
142.20
103.26
13.22

$
$
$

Total ($m)
142.20 $
1,120.00 $
(1.16) $

38.94

Per Share
10.76
85.40
(0.09)
-97616%
2.95
-2800%

Boston Beer Co Inc The

(sam)
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Piotroski Score
A discrete score between 0-9 which reflects nine criteria used to determine the strength of a firm's financial position. The Piotroski score is used to determine the best value stocks, nine being the
best. The score was named after Chicago Accounting Professor, Joseph Piotroski who devised the scale according to specific criteria found in the financial statements. For every criteria (below) that
is met the company is given one point, if it is not met, then no points are awarded. The points are then added up to determine the best value stocks.
Profitability
* Positive return on assets in the current year (1 point)
* Positive operating cash flow in the current year (1 point)
* Higher return on assets (ROA) in the current period compared to the ROA in the previous year (1 point)
* Cash flow from operations are greater than ROA (1 point)
Leverage, Liquidity and Source of Funds
* Lower ratio of long term debt to in the current period compared value in the previous year (1 point)
* Higher current ratio this year compared to the previous year (1 point)
* No new shares were issued in the last year (1 point)
Operating Efficiency
* A higher gross margin compared to the previous year (1 point)
* A higher asset turnover ratio compared to the previous year (1 point)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

TTM

Piotroski F Scores

Piotroski 1: Net Income

Piotroski 2: Operating Cash Flow
Piotroski 3: Return on Assets
Piotroski 4: Quality of Earnings
Piotroski 5: LT Debt vs Assets
Piotroski 6: Current Ratio
Piotroski 7: Shares Outstanding
Piotroski 8: Gross Margin
Piotroski 9: Asset Turnover

1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0

1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1

1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1

1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0

1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0

1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0

1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1

1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0

1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1

1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0

Altman Z Score
The Z-score formula may be used to predict the probability that a firm will go into bankruptcy within two years.
Z-scores are used to predict corporate defaults and an easy-to-calculate control measure for the financial distress status of companies in academic studies. The Z-score uses multiple corporate
income and balance sheet values to measure the financial health of a company.
The main problem with the Altman Z formula is that the formula is not suited for many industries. Industries that operate with high leverage, such as radio and utilities will show a higher risk of
bankruptcy.
Also, industries with negative working capital, such as many retail and restaurant companies will also exhibit the same high level of bankruptcy.
(Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z-Score_Financial_Analysis_Tool)

Z = 1.2*X1 + 1.4*X2 + 3.3*X3 + 0.6*X4 + 1.0*X5

There is also a revised Altman Z score which is adjusted for non manufacturing corporations. The revised formula is:

Z = 6.56*X1 + 3.26*X2 + 6.72*X3 + 1.05*X4

X1 = Working Capital/Total Assets
X2 = Retained Earnings/Total Assets
X3 = EBITDA/Total Assets
X4 = Market Value of Equity/Total Liabilities
X5 = Net Sales/Total Assets

Annual
Working Capital
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Retained Earnings
EBITDA
Market Value of Equity
Net Sales

2001/12
$
56
$
107
$
29
$
56
$
12
$
230
$
187

2002/12
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

59
107
28
64
13
201
215

Normal Altman Z Score

Revised Altman Z Score

8.16
14.09

8.24
13.94

X1
X2
X3
X4
X5

0.15
0.17
0.31
12.16
1.79

0.21
0.19
0.09
10.94
0.47

2003/12
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

46
87
25
75
16
244
208
10.69
17.76

2004/12
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

62
107
29
13
19
333
217

2005/12
$
60
$
119
$
33
$
16
$
24
$
373
$
238

10.34
17.38

10.22
16.95

MRQ
2006/12
80
154
46
28
29
478
285

2007/12
$
78
$
196
$
62
$
45
$
41
$
640
$
342

9.58
16.17

9.40
15.55

$
$
$
$
$
$
$

Altman Z Score

2008/12
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

2
220
80
38
16
327
398

2009/12
$
39
$
263
$
90
$
62
$
55
#VALUE!
$
415

2010/12
$
40
$
259
$
93
$
44
$
81
$
1,130
$
464

2011/06
$
60
$
285
$
103
$
53
$
24
$
1,130
$
134

10.55
16.44

7.83
14.04

4.77
5.42

Revised Altman Z Score

Annual

MRQ

Annual

MRQ

10.55

7.83

16.44

14.04

MRQ Edit

Original Altman Z Score

When Z is 3.0 or more, the firm is most likely safe based on the financial data. However, be careful to double check as fraud, economic downturns and other factors could
cause unexpected reversals.
When Z is 2.7 to 3.0, the company is probably safe from bankruptcy, but this is in the grey area and caution should be taken.
When Z is 1.8 to 2.7, the company is likely to be bankrupt within 2 years. This is the lower portion of the grey area and a dramatic turnaround of the company is needed.
When Z is below 1.8, the company is highly likely to be bankrupt. If a company is generating lower than 1.8, serious studies must be performed to ensure the company can
survive.
Revised Altman Z Score
When Z is 2.6 or more, the firm is most likely safe based on the financial data. However, be careful to double check as fraud, economic downturns and other factors could cause unexpected
reversals.
When Z is 1.1 to 2.6, the company is probably safe from bankruptcy, but this is in the grey area and caution should be taken.
When Z is below 1.1, the company is highly likely to be bankrupt. If a company is generating lower than 1.8, serious studies must be performed to ensure the company can survive.

The Beneish Model - M Score Variables

DSRI = Days' Sales in Receivables Index. Measured as the ratio of days' sales in receivables in year t to year t-1. A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
GMI = Gross Margin Index. Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t. Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is
more likely to manipulate earnings.
AQI = Asset Quality Index. Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
SGI = Sales Growth Index. Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1. Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure
to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
DEPI = Depreciation Index. Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t. DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower
rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index. The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t -1.
LVGI = Leverage Index. The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1. An LVGI >1 indicates an increase in leverage
TATA - Total Accruals to Total Assets. Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

The Beneish M Score Formula

The eight variables are then weighted together according to the following:
M = -4.84 + 0.92*DSRI + 0.528*GMI + 0.404*AQI + 0.892*SGI + 0.115*DEPI - 0.172*SGAI + 4.679*TATA - 0.327*LVGI
A score greater than -2.22 indicates a strong likelihood of a firm being a manipulator. In his out of sample tests, Beneish found that he could correctly identify 76% of manipulators, whilst only
incorrectly identifying 17.5% of non-manipulators.

The 5 Variable Version of the Beneish Model

The five variable version excludes SGAI, DEPI and LEVI which were not significant in the original Beneish model.
M = -6.065 + 0.823*DSRI + 0.906*GMI + 0.593*AQI + 0.717*SGI + 0.107*DEPI
A score greater than -2.22 indicates a strong likelihood of a firm being a manipulator.
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

TTM

M Score - 8 Variable

NA
NA

-3.01
-2.64

-3.30
-3.42

-2.81
-2.60

-2.92
-3.06

-2.44
-2.25

-1.44
-2.22

-2.67
-2.78

-3.50
-4.18

-2.72
-2.61

-2.79
-2.68

DSRI
GMI
AQI
SGI
DEPI
SGAI
TATA
LVGI

0.80
0.97
0.99
1.15
0.93
0.14
-0.05
1.03

0.61
0.99
0.99
0.97
0.79
1.04
-0.10
1.08

1.18
1.01
0.81
1.04
1.30
0.97
-0.06
0.97

0.68
1.01
1.22
1.10
1.55
1.06
-0.11
0.99

1.56
1.03
0.74
1.20
1.04
1.09
-0.07
1.10

0.84
1.03
3.40
1.20
1.11
0.91
-0.16
1.12

1.48
1.16
0.19
1.17
1.62
1.22
-0.14
1.03

0.55
0.89
0.81
1.04
0.76
4.35
-0.13
0.92

1.00
0.94
1.28
1.12
0.95
0.99
-0.07
1.00

1.29
1.00
0.80
1.03
0.96
1.05
-0.08
1.04

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

M Score - 5 Variable

Boston Beer Co Inc The

(sam)
8/11/2011
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Sorted Data
Stock Price
Mkt Cap ($M)
EV
52 Wk High
52 Wk Low
% off 52Wk Low

CLEAR

$
$
$
$
$

sam

hook

hinky

sam

bud

tap

85.40 $
1,120.00 $
1,050.00 $
100.93 $
63.02 $
35.5%

51.51 $
82,710.00 $
118,950.00 $
64.77 $
49.05 $
5.0%

bud

42.51 $
7,960.00
$
8,480.00 $
51.11 $
40.52 $
4.9%

tap

sbmry
34.28
58,530.00
38.68
28.10
22.0%

$
$
$
$
$

sbmry

hinky
26.80 $
30,870.00 $
42,420.00 $
30.86 $
21.65 $
23.8%

hook
5.93
111.62
128.75
10.17
5.25
13.0%

Multiples
P/E(TTM)
P/S(TTM)
P/Tang BV(MRQ)
P/CF
P/FCF(TTM)
EV/EBITDA(TTM)

19.8
2.3
6.1
14.3
16.3
11.2

17.7
2.2
0.0
8.8
0.0
8.6

11.4
2.3
4.2
8.6
36.6
13.8

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.6

27.0
1.3
0.0
8.1
14.7
9.3

59.2
0.7
1.6
11.8
26.4
12.7

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

2.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

3.1%
0.0%
11.0%
27.8%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

2.0%
1.9%
13.7%
60.8%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

3.4%
2.3%
14.3%
77.7%
51.5%
26.9%

8.1%
2.2%
0.0%
102.7%
2.5%
0.0%

5.7%
2.3%
-10.0%
-6.4%
-12.0%
19.9%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

13.9%
1.3%
8.6%
-96.1%
-34.7%
10.4%

17.7%
0.7%
33.5%
-93.0%
-29.3%
0.0%

1.3
1.7
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

1.2
1.3
24.0
24.6

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.6
0.8
79.0
88.7

0.5
0.9
27.0
29.3

55.6%
52.9%
20.1%
11.3%
12.5%
6.8%

55.8%
0.0%
27.8%
0.0%
17.3%
0.0%

43.5%
41.3%
26.6%
14.9%
20.3%
11.8%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

36.2%
67.0%
13.9%
12.0%
9.6%
7.7%

26.4%
20.5%
1.8%
-7.7%
1.1%
-7.5%

21.6%
12.7%
33.6%
19.1%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

5.4%
4.6%
8.7%
8.2%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

6.7%
6.3%
9.2%
17.1%

1.0%
-5.7%
1.7%
-8.7%

17.9
7.4
1.7

0.0
0.0
0.0

5.4
8.3
0.3

0.0
0.0
0.0

7.0
9.3
0.7

12.5
9.9
0.9

Dividends
Div Yld
Div Yld - 5yr avg
Div 5yr Grth
Payout Ratio(TTM)

Growth Rates
Sales(MRQ) v 1yr ago
Sales(TTM) v 1yr ago
Sales 5yr Grth
EPS(MRQ) v 1yr ago
EPS(TTM) v 1yr ago
EPS 5yr Grth

Balance Sheet
Quick Ratio(MRQ)
Current Ratio(MRQ)
LTD/Eq(MRQ)
Tot D/Eq(MRQ)

Margins
Gross %(TTM)
Gross % 5yr
Op %(TTM)
Op % 5yr avg
Net %(TTM)
Net % 5yr avg

Returns
ROA(TTM)
ROA 5yr avg
ROE(TTM)
ROE 5yr avg

Efficiency
Rec Turnover(TTM)
Inv Turnover(TTM)
Asset Turnover(TTM)

Boston Beer Co Inc The

(sam)
8/11/2011
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Figures in Millions except per share values

Free Cash Flow

2001
$16.0
% Change

2002
$11.5
-28.3%

Owner Earnings

2003
$17.9
56.0%

2004
$14.7
-17.9%

2005
$14.9
1.0%

2006
$19.9
34.0%

2007
$28.2
41.5%

2008
-$19.7
-169.9%

2009
$48.6
346.6%

2010
$54.2
11.6%

TTM
$67.7
24.8%

Stock Price

2001
$14.1
% Change

2002
$12.8
-9.8%

2002
5.7%
-4.4%

2003
$17.4
36.5%

2004
$23.3
34.0%

2005
$26.9
15.1%

2006
$33.9
26.3%

2007
$45.1
33.0%

2008
$23.0
-48.9%

2009
2010
#VALUE!
$89.9
#VALUE! #VALUE!

TTM
$88.7
-1.4%

2002
15.1%
11.8%

2003
7.7%
33.4%

2004
6.0%
-22.1%

2005
2.6%
-57.1%

2006
4.9%
93.1%

2007
2.0%
-59.0%

2008
-9.3%
-557.9%

2009
7.7%
183.0%

2010
11.7%
51.6%

TTM
17.4%
48.8%

2002
12.0%
20.7%

2004
$13.0
-18.6%

2005
$6.1
-52.9%

2006
$14.1
131.3%

2007
$6.9
-50.9%

2008
-$37.0
-634.0%

2009
$32.0
186.5%

2010
$54.3
69.4%

TTM
$82.9
52.8%

2001
$0.47
% Change

2003
$0.70
34.6%

2004
$0.86
22.9%

2005
$1.07
24.4%

2006
$1.27
18.7%

2007
$1.53
20.5%

2008
$0.56
-63.4%

2009
$2.17
287.5%

2010
$3.52
62.2%

TTM
$1.09
-69.0%

2002
17.5
21.9%

2003
13.6
-22.5%

2004
22.7
66.6%

2005
25.1
10.8%

2006
24.0
-4.4%

2007
22.7
-5.3%

2008
-16.6
-173.1%

2009
2010
#VALUE!
22.2
#VALUE! #VALUE!

TTM
17.3
-22.2%

2002
5.7%
-18.0%

2003
7.4%
29.0%

2004
4.4%
-40.0%

2005
4.0%
-9.7%

2006
4.2%
4.6%

2007
4.4%
5.6%

2008
-6.0%
-236.8%

2009
2010
#VALUE!
4.5%
#VALUE! #VALUE!

TTM
5.8%
28.5%

2006
25.9%
-5.1%

2007
32.9%
27.1%

2008
10.8%
-67.2%

2002
$0.52
10.6%

2003
24.3%
61.3%

2004
16.0%
-34.4%

2005
6.8%
-57.6%

2003
11.4%
-4.4%

2004
9.0%
-21.8%

2005
9.0%
0.5%

2001
14.4
% Change

FCF Yield

2006
12.4%
83.9%

2007
5.0%
-59.5%

2008
-24.3%
-581.9%

2009
16.9%
169.8%

2010
29.1%
71.9%

TTM
40.9%
40.5%

Magic Formula Investing -- Earnings Yield

2001
9.9%
% Change

2003
$15.9
28.8%

Price / FCF

Cash Return on Invested Capital (CROIC)

2001
13.5%
% Change

2002
$12.4
10.2%

Diluted EPS

FCF / Sales

2001
6.0%
% Change

2001
$11.2
% Change

2001
6.9%
% Change

Magic Formula Investing -- Return on Capital

2006
8.3%
-7.5%

2007
8.6%
3.5%

2008
9.0%
3.9%

2009
2010
#VALUE!
8.6%
#VALUE! #VALUE!

TTM
8.5%
-1.0%

2001
14.7%
% Change

2002
16.4%
11.9%

2003
25.2%
53.3%

2004
24.4%
-3.1%

2005
27.3%
11.8%

2009
29.7%
174.9%

2010
44.5%
49.9%

TTM
37.8%
-15.0%

Gross Margin

2001
59.8%
% Change

2002
61.8%
3.3%

Net Profit Margin

2003
62.2%
0.7%

2004
61.8%
-0.7%

2005
61.3%
-0.9%

2006
59.3%
-3.2%

2007
57.4%
-3.3%

2008
49.3%
-14.1%

2009
55.6%
12.8%

2010
59.0%
6.2%

TTM
59.3%
0.5%

Piotroski F score

2001
6.0
% Change

2002
8.0
33.3%

2003
7.0
-12.5%

2004
5.0
-28.6%

2005
4.0
-20.0%

2006
4.0
0.0%

2007
3.0
-25.0%

2008
5.0
66.7%

2009
7.0
40.0%

2010
8.0
14.3%

TTM
7.0
-12.5%

2002
35.5%
-5.4%

2003
-3.4
-29.5%

2004
-2.6
24.2%

2005
-3.1
-17.9%

2006
-2.2
26.6%

2007
-2.2
1.4%

2008
-2.8
-25.4%

2009
-4.2
-50.5%

2010
-2.6
37.6%

TTM
-2.7
-2.8%

2002

2004
5.8%
13.4%

2005
6.5%
13.4%

2006
6.4%
-2.4%

2007
6.6%
3.3%

2008
2.0%
-69.2%

2009
7.5%
269.3%

2010
10.8%
44.2%

TTM
12.5%
15.7%

2001
8.2
% Change

2002
8.2
0.9%

2003
10.7
29.8%

2004
10.3
-3.3%

2005
10.2
-1.1%

2006
9.6
-6.2%

2007
9.4
-1.9%

2008
4.8
-49.3%

2009
2010
10.5
#VALUE! #VALUE!

TTM
7.8
-25.8%

2001
45.9%
% Change

2002
42.4%
-7.7%

2003
40.3%
-5.0%

2004
39.5%
-1.9%

2005
42.1%
6.5%

2006
47.5%
12.9%

2007
47.0%
-1.0%

2008
48.2%
2.6%

2009
41.9%
-13.0%

2010
38.1%
-9.1%

TTM
47.7%
25.2%

2003
64.2%
45.2%

2004
44.6%
-30.5%

2005
18.5%
-58.6%

2006
30.8%
66.7%

2007
11.1%
-63.8%

2008
-46.5%
-517.0%

2009
35.7%
176.8%

2010
58.4%
63.6%

TTM
80.3%
37.5%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

TTM

FCF to Total Debt

2003
39.7%
11.9%

2004
37.1%
-6.5%

2005
38.5%
3.6%

2006
42.3%
9.8%

2007
46.6%
10.3%

2008
56.9%
22.2%

2009
51.9%
-8.9%

2010
56.1%
8.3%

TTM
56.7%
1.1%

FCF to Short Term Debt

2001

2003
5.1%
27.8%

Tax Rate

Debt to Equity

2001
37.5%
% Change

2002
4.0%
-5.3%

Original Altman Z Score

Beneish M Score - 8 Variable Version

2001
2002
-2.6
% Change #DIV/0!

2001
4.2%
% Change

2003

2001
38.3%
% Change

2002
44.2%
15.5%

FCF to Long Term Debt

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

TTM

% Change #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

2001

2002

2003

% Change #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!