Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Yes
No
Don't Know/Unsure
FED SURVEY
2. For those respondents who replied Yes to question #1. How large do you expect the new quantitative program will be over the next year (12 months)? Please do not include reinvestment of maturing securities. July 20 Survey $700 $600 $500 $400 $377 $300 $200 $100 $0 Average (In Billions) $628 August 11 Survey
FED SURVEY
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Strongly Approve
31%
Moderately Approve
27%
Slightly Approve
12%
Neutral
12%
Slightly Disapprove
8%
Moderately disapprove
8%
Strongly Disapprove
4%
FED SURVEY
46%
38%
35%
27%
Do nothing
12%
8%
Lower or eliminate interest rate on reserves (4) Announce 4% target inflation rate (2) Buy stocks (1) Announce the purpose of QE is achieve/maintain an acceptable level of nominal GDP growth at 4 to 5 percent (1) Non-recourse loans to encourage expansion of mortgage lending (1)
FED SURVEY
Too accommodative
Just right
Too restrictive
Dont know/Unsure
6. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will be on ? July 20 Survey 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 December 31, 2011 June 30, 2012 1364 1310 1421 August 11 Survey
1252
FED SURVEY
8. What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage change in real U.S. GDP? July 20 Survey 3.0% 2.5% +2.47% 2.0% +1.86% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2011 2012 +2.85% +2.47% August 11 Survey
FED SURVEY
1.01%
0.47%
0.21%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
FED SURVEY
52% 45% 48% 37% 24% 23% 83% 70% 28% 25% 4% 2%
Ireland
Italy
Greece
Spain
United States
Germany
2%
France
3%
United Kingdom
2%
Germany, France, and United Kingdom were not included in the July 20 survey
FED SURVEY
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FED SURVEY
9.9 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.6 6.9 6.4 3.2
10=AAA Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating. 9=AA Very strong capacity to meet financial commitments. 8=A Strong capacity to meet financial commitments, but somewhat susceptible to adverse economic conditions and changes in circumstances. 7=BBB Adequate capacity to meet financial commitments, but more subject to adverse economic conditions. 6=BB Less vulnerable in the near-term but faces major ongoing uncertainties to adverse business, financial and economic conditions. 5=B More vulnerable to adverse business, financial and economic conditions but currently has the capacity to meet financial commitments. 4=CCC Currently vulnerable and dependent on favorable business, financial and economic conditions to meet financial commitments. 3=CC Currently highly vulnerable. 2=C Currently highly vulnerable obligations and other defined circumstances. 1=D Payment default on financial commitments.
FED SURVEY
Failure to get the government's deficit under control quickly enough 43%
14.What is your attitude toward additional government stimulus now to boost the U.S. economy
Neutral 44%
FED SURVEY
Currencies 2%
Other 17%
Economics 48%
Comments:
Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott: The economic debate emerging in recent days and weeks has centered on whether the U.S. economy will fall back into or avoid recession. From our perspective, that debate misses the point, as either way, growth is likely to be subpar for several years to come. Hank Smith, Haverford Investments: We need fiscal stimulus now but not in the form of increased spending, but rather a more pro-growth tax code (i.e. lower marginal rates both corporate and individual) and a rollback of regulations. Monetary policy has done enough heavy lifting. It's now time for pro-growth fiscal policy! Chad Morganlander, Stifel Nicolaus: The current situation is dynamically unstable. The United States has to contend with a moderation of growth and the threat of fiscal austerity. This will feed into a slowdown in earnings. The Europeans must solve the problem of over indebt and nations and develop a release mechanism to allow troubled members to exit the European monetary union. Growth across the globe is slowing. The unified measures taken in 2009 to transfer debt from the private balance to the public balance sheet was a dreadful mistake. John Kattar, Eastern Investment Advisors: At Jackson Hole, we will either see another large scale asset purchase, or a reduction/elimination of the interest rate paid on free reserves at the Fed. Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo: I would be in favor of additional fiscal stimulus if I thought it could be done well. I do not have much confidence today, however. CNBCs Fed Survey August 11, 2011 Page 12 of 14
FED SURVEY
FED SURVEY