What Significant Information is Omitted?

Confusing Averages
There are actually three different types of averages Mean Add up all the numbers and divide it by the number of units (whatever you're measuring). Median List all the numbers from highest to lowest and find the one in the middle. Mode The number that appears the most frequently. So when someone uses the word average, you must find out what kind of average they mean. (Usually the mean).

Confusing Averages
It's also important to know the range and distribution of the statistic. Range the gap between the smallest and the largest number Distribution how frequently values occur

The new weight-loss drug Get-That-Fat-Off-Me is effective in helping people lose weight. In a clinical study, only about 6 of 100 people reported any side effects when taking the drug. The company manufacturing the drug says 94% of people have positive results with Get-That-Fat-Off-Me. It is safe to say that our pill is one of the most effective weightloss pills on the market. What does the statistic prove? What does the manufacturer conclude?

Proving One Thing, Concluding Another

Deceiving by Omitting Information

Statistics often leave out important information. It is important to ask: What else do I need to know to judge the impact of the statistic? Despite common fears, skydiving is much safer than other common activities, such as driving a motorbike. In one particular month, in Bangkok, 176 people died in motorbike accidents while 3 died in skydiving accidents.

summary
1. Try to find out as much as you can about HOW the statistics were obtained. 2. Be curious about the type of average being used and whether or not that is deceptive. 3. Pay attention to wording. Some statistics prove one thing while communicators conclude something else. Some statistics can be made to sound impressive simply by changing the wording.

Don't miss Avatar, the best movie of the year! Try Zoloft, the #1 doctor prescribed treatment for depression.

What's missing?

The Reality of Life

Advertisers, teachers, politicians, authors and speakers all organize information to shape your decisions Examples: Zoloft, me, Vladimir Putin, J.K. Rowling

The Certainty of Incomplete Reasoning

Incomplete reasoning is inevitable. Time and space limitations we just don't have the time and space to say and show everything Limited attention span we can't focus for very long so communicators have to get their message across quickly Inadequate human knowledge nobody knows everything

The Certainty of Incomplete Reasoning

Deception the communicator may intend to deceive the audience Existence of different perspectives people believe different things, have different values, different assumptions, and therefore have different attitudes about issues The point is information will be omitted

The search for omitted information...

1. Common Counter-arguments - What would someone say who disagrees? - Are there other research studies that contradict the study presented?

The search for omitted information...

2. Missing Definitions - How do you define key terms? Are they ambiguous? 3. Missing Value Preferences or Perspectives - Would different values create a different approach to this issue?

The search for Omitted Information...

4. Origins of the facts of the argument - What is the source of the facts? Is it reliable?

5. Details of how the facts were gathered - How many people were in the survey? How were they selected? What questions were asked? Etc.

The search for Omitted Information...

6. Alternate techniques for gathering or organizing evidence - Would an interview be better than a survey?

7. Missing or incomplete figures, graphs, tables or data - Has the author stretched the figure to make the differences look larger?

The search for Omitted Information...

8. Omitted effects, positive and negative, short-term and long-term - What are the important consequences? 9. Context of quotes and testimonials - Has a quote been taken out of context?

In a recent interview about how many Nuclear bombs Thailand wants to have, the Prime Minister was heard saying Yes, I'll have two.

The search for Omitted Information...

10. Benefits for the communicator convincing others to follow his/her advice - We shouldn't have large taxes for rich people, sincerely a very rich person.

What can we do when information is missing?

Look for it Complain about the argument and the lack of information Cautiously agree if the argument is better or more complete than its competitors

Homework
Read chapter 13 (Almost Done!) Topics on Thursday for Discussion!