Standard Bank Monthly Market Barometer - July 2011

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SouthAfrica:Credit:MonthlyMarketBarometer
CityofJohannesburgnotaprettypicture
Research Strategists
Janine Pein* Janine.Pein@standardbank.co.za +27-11-3788154 Robyn Clements* Robyn.Clements@standardbank.co.za +27-11-3787222 Kuvasha Govender* Kuvasha.Govender@standardbank.co.za +27-11-3787217
July2011
The annual results of the City of Johannesburg (CoJ) were substantially qualified. We therefore view the results as largely unreliable. Revenue totalling R5.2bn was either incorrect or unverifiable, while debtors of R2.8bn could not be verified. The underlying performance of the CoJ is weak; revenue collections are under pressure and 73.9% of the debtors book has been impaired. However, this may not lead to a downgrade; Moodys has stated that an audit qualification might not have a direct impact on its rating of the CoJ. Credit metrics weakened in FY:10. The citys debt burden remains high, while cash generation has fallen. However, the CoJs economy is large; if adequate controls are put in place, and its accounting and billings problems are remedied, we believe that the financial situation should improve. Securitisation issuance to remain high into August. Nitro is expected to return to market with a new transaction, aiming to raise up to R4bn. This follows the trend of July, with both Thewini 9 and Blue Granite 2 raising funds (although less than was on offer). Corporate issuance was robust, with Toyota, Growthpoint and RCS all returning to market.
Figure 1: CoJ Interest-bearing liabilities are high, while cash has declined
12,000
Rm
9,000
6,000
3,000
FY:06 Cash and cash equivalents FY:07 FY:08 FY:09 FY:10 Long term interest-bearing debt Short term interest-bearing debt
Sources: Standard Bank Research; Annual reports
Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
Monthly Market Barometer July 2011
City of Johannesburg audit qualification reveals deeper problems Audit qualification

The City of Johannesburg (CoJ) released final audited results for FY:10 at the end of July more than a year late. The auditor general has not yet received an annual report; we have therefore based our analysis on the substantially qualified annual results. Due to the magnitude of the qualification, we highlight the audit findings first:
Revenue raised but not billed amounted to R425m, comprising property rates of R223.4m and service charges of R201.6m. A total of R2.2m was included in revenue but was incorrect due to billing errors relating to rates and services. The auditor could not quantify the full extent of the errors because of a lack of information. Revenue amounting to R732.2m was raised in the wrong period. Journal entries totalling R1.9bn were processed in order to correct billing errors but these entries could not be verified. Therefore, it appears that revenue was additionally inflated by R1.9bn. The difficulties in verifying revenue resulted in unverifiable debtors of R2.8bn.
Due to the size of the qualification, we believe that considerably less reliance can be placed on the revenue and debtors as disclosed in the annual results.
Statement of comprehensive income

Table 1: Statement of comprehensive income (as disclosed by the CoJ) FY:10 highlights Rm Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin Operating loss before finance charges Finance costs Cash interest cover
Sources: Standard Bank Research; Annual results
FY:10 18,000 (1,756) -9.8% (2,941) 1,662 2.7x
FY:09 14,776 (2,654) -18.0% (3,424) 1,232 3.5x
% change 21.8% 33.9% 14.1% 35.0% -
When analysing municipalities, we calculate revenue by excluding all capital items and government grants. On this basis, we calculate revenue at R18bn increasing by 21.8% y/y. However, we do not believe that this figure is accurate. The auditor has highlighted that property rates were potentially overstated by R996.7m, and service charges by R1.6bn, while incorrect journal entries further inflated revenue by R2.6bn. Therefore, revenue appears to be overstated by R5.2bn. On this basis, total revenue amounts to R12.8bn, and therefore, revenue actually declined by 13.6% y/y. The bulk of the citys revenue is earned from property rates and service charges (for the sale of water and electricity). As per the financial results, total rates and service charges amounted to R16.2bn (FY:09 R13.1bn). However, if we exclude R5.2bn of incorrect and unverifiable revenue, this amount decreases to R11bn; and therefore, revenue from rates and service charges fell by 15.5%. We question why the results are so severely misstated. The CoJ has stated that the integration of a new SAP computer system (implemented during FY:10) with the old system was the primary reason for the billing errors. This is troubling; we believe that the integration of accounting systems is generally unlikely to cause such substantial errors. The actual cost of the new system Project Phakama was not disclosed; however, we believe that the cost may be around R449.5m (additions to computer systems, as part of intangible assets).
2 Credit Research
We would expect that the lower revenue and high impairment of the debtors book would have suppressed collections. We cannot determine a concrete collections rate the unaudited annual report states that collections were 92.7% for FY:10. We find this unlikely. Other reports suggest a collections rate of 86% or 87%, resulting in an under collection of R600m. We have used the lower collection rate in our analysis, given the underlying problems with revenue and debt collection (Figure 2). The city estimates that its collections rate for FY:11 should be 88% .
Figure 2: We have used a lower estimated collections rate of 86% for FY:10
95.0%
91.3%
87.5%
83.8%
80.0% FY:07 FY:08 Collections rate

FY:09
FY:10
The muni also receives government grants, which increased by 44% y/y, to R6.8bn (FY:09 R4.8bn). Part of this funding (R2.3bn) was granted to fund investment for the 2010 Soccer World Cup. The largest single grant of R3.5bn (FY:09 R3.1bn) was provided to assist in the provision of services to poor community members. We expect the CoJ to continue to receive grants from the government. If we calculate EBITDA using the numbers the CoJ has reported, the city made a loss of -R1.8bn (FY:09 -R2.7bn). However, once we remove the R5.2bn as determined by the auditor, this figure deteriorates to a loss of -R8.1bn (Figure 3).
Figure 3: EBITDA has become increasingly negative; FY:10a represents the adjusted EBITDA figure
2,353
Rm
20%
-10
0%
-2,374
-20%
-4,737
-40%
-7,100 FY:06 FY:07 FY:08 EBITDA (LHS)

-60% FY:09 EBITDA margin FY:10 FY:10a
3 Credit Research
Operating expenses increased by 15.1%, to R20.9bn (FY:09 R18.2bn):
Staff costs increased by 16.4% y/y, to R5.9bn. Salaries and wages comprise the bulk of this figure, and increased by 23.3%, to R4.2bn (FY:09 R3.4bn). Key executives appear to have largely received increases of between 9% and 19%. The City Manager received the biggest increase of 18.9% y/y, to R1.6m upon including benefits and a performance bonus, this increases to R2.1m (FY:09 R1.9m). The primary driver behind the 14.5% increase in bulk purchases was the 17.7% growth in electricity costs. We expect that this charge will continue to increase as Eskoms tariff hikes are implemented. Electricity charges are the largest contributor (71%) of total bulk purchases. The impairment charge remained fairly flat, increasing by only 5.2% y/y, to R1.6bn. However, the impairment charge before recoveries and write-offs more than doubled, to R2.3bn (FY:09 R936.3m). In total, 73.9% of the debtors book is impaired, with the bulk of the impaired accounts (R4.7bn) outstanding for more than 365 days. Finance charges increased by 35% y/y, to R1.7bn (FY:10) from R1.2bn (FY:09). The city did not provide any further details on this increase. Total interest bearing liabilities grew by only 7.1% y/y, to R11.1bn (FY:09 R10.3bn). Therefore, we do not believe that the growth in debt accounts for this dramatic increase in interest charges. The higher interest charges, coupled with an EBITDA loss, has resulted in weaker credit metrics. Interest coverage (if we remove the R5.2bn of overstated revenue) is a deeply negative -4.9x (FY:09 -2.8x).
Statement of financial position and cash flows

Table 2: Financial position and cash flows (as disclosed by the CoJ) FY:10 highlights Rm Interest-bearing liabilities Long-term interest-bearing liabilities Short-term interest-bearing liabilities Gross consumer debtors Impairment provision Cash and cash equivalents Funds from operations (FFO) Capex Free cash flow (FCF) Interest-bearing-liabilities-to-EBITDA FCF-to-interest-bearing-liabilities
FY:10 11,088 10,658 430 10,525 (7,769) 305 3,235 (4,628) (1,393) -6.3x -0.13x
FY:09 10,355 9,124 1,231 8,307 (6,117) 666 3,781 (6,305) (2,524) -3.9x 0.24x
% change 7.1% 16.8% (65.1%) 26.7% 27.0% (54.2%) (14.4%) (26.6%) 44.8% -
Consumer debtors were highlighted by the auditor; R2.8bn was unable to be verified, which equates to 26.2% of total debtors. We also note that the impairment of consumer debtors does not reconcile in the financial statements. Debtors are significantly impaired 73.9% of the total debtors book. In fact, net debtors of R2.9bn is virtually the same amount as the unverifiable portion. The impairment includes long-outstanding debt that has not been written off. This is an historical trend; 47.8% (R5bn) of total debtors fall into the over 365 days bucket. We view this as concerning; these debtors appear largely unrecoverable, and in our view, they should be written off. However, the current debtors impairment is even more worrisome. Total current debtors amount to R1.8bn (FY:09 R1.4bn), with a total impairment of R406m (FY:09 R40.3m) raised. Therefore, 22.9% of current debtors have already been impaired. We do not believe that current debtors should be impaired this hints at even greater problems in the debtors book. Debtors totalling R837m (FY:09 R297.4m) have remained unimpaired despite falling into the 121 to 365 days, and over 365 days buckets. This is also concerning, and follows the trend of severe problems within the consumer debtors book. Only 3.6% of the total book was written off. Given that a substantial portion of the book is over a year old, we view this as incredibly low.
4 Credit Research
Long-term interest-bearing debt grew by 16.6%, to R10.6bn (FY:09 R9.1bn). This increase was primarily due to a R500m 10-year loan from the Development Bank of SA, and a R1bn loan granted by Nedbank, which falls due in 2018. We believe that the funding from Nedbank replaces the redemption of the COJ01, which was redeemed on 13 April 2010. This resulted in a considerable reduction in short-term liabilities, to R430m (FY:10) from R1.2bn (FY:09) (Figure 4). Therefore, the debt maturity profile has lengthened. Credit metrics are weak, especially once the R5.2bn of unverifiable revenue is excluded: the interest-bearing-debt-to-revenue ratio was 86.6% (FY:09 70.1%). The city has investments of R2bn (FY:09 R3.5bn) which are held as collateral until the liabilities are settled. The largest is a sinking fund of R1.5bn (FY:09 R2bn) which is allocated to the redemption of the CoJ bonds. However, this is fairly small in comparison to the R6.6bn (FY:09 R7.6bn) of bonds outstanding.
Figure 4: Short-term liabilities have declined
12,000
Rm
9,000
6,000
3,000
FY:06 Cash and cash equivalents

FY:07
FY:08 Long term interest-bearing debt
FY:09
FY:10
Short term interest-bearing debt
Cash on hand more than halved, declining by 54.2%, to R305m (FY:09 R666m); the decrease was because R300m was utilised to repay long-term liabilities. The city generated less cash, with cash from operations declining by 14.4%, to R3.2bn (FY:10) from R3.8bn (FY:09). However, capex was less, at R4.6bn (FY:09 R6.3bn) and therefore, free cash flow was less negative, at -R1.4bn (FY:09 -R2.5bn).
Ratings
The CoJ is rated Aa3 (Moodys) and AA- (Fitch). Moodys has commented that an audit qualification might not result in a downgrade. Moodys commented on the ratings in May, stating that the munis size, solid budgetary management and control, and commitment to financial recovery support the rating. The high gearing, liquidity challenges and substantial backlogs in service delivery constrain the rating. The agency views the likelihood of extraordinary support from the SA government as moderate. However, we believe that this is a fundamental driver behind the ratings. We do not believe that the city has exercised good control it has not managed its budgeting process well as evidenced by an EBITDA loss. However, we do agree that gearing is high and cash flow is under pressure. Despite these challenges and the substantial audit qualification, we believe that this is unlikely to result in a downgrade. We view the rating as considerably supported by the agencys expectation of government support, if required.
Bond performance
The City of Johannesburg issued a new fixed-rate note, the COJ07 (2021, 10.78%) in March 2011, raising R850m, at a spread of 195 bps over the R208. The credit spread on the bond has tightened by 5 bps over the past three months, to settle at R208 + 190 bps. There were some moves in the CoJ bonds over the past year, the largest being the COJ06 (2015, 10.82%), which tightened by 103 bps, to settle at R157 + 172 bps. The spreads on the COJ02 (2016, 11.9%) and the COJ05 (2023, 12.21%) did not change over the past year. The COJ02 is currently trading at 250 bps over the R157, and the COJ05 is trading at R208 + 230 bps.
5 Credit Research
The newly issued COJ07 traded 49 times, for R2.3m during its first three months in issue. The COJ04 traded 480 times for R448m, and the COJ06 recorded 56 trades for R527m. Trading activity in the COJ03 and the COJ05 was smaller the COJ03 traded eight times for R43m, and the COJ05 traded 37 times for R54m. Over 6-months, the COJ06 and COJ04 outperformed the ALBI and the equity indices; and the COJ02, COJ03 and COJ05 outperformed the ALBI and the FINI15 and TOP40 equity indices. However, over 12-months, the equity indices outperformed all the bonds, and only the COJ03 was outperformed by the ALBI (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Over the past 12 months, all the bonds underperformed in comparison to the equity indices
9 6-month return (%)
COJ06
7 COJ04 FINDI30 4 COJ03 ALBI 2 FINI15 TOP40 COJ02 COJ05
8 14 Bonds
Sources: Standard Bank Research; Bloomberg
19 Equities
25 ALBI
30 12-month return (%)
35
Concerns
We have many concerns regarding the citys latest financial statements. The sizable qualification has rendered the annual results largely unreliable. Although we have adjusted for the qualifications in our analysis, we believe that our results are an approximation of the actual performance, at best. However, the adjustments do lead us to believe that the underlying performance of the CoJ is weak. Revenue collections are under pressure, while a significant portion of the debtors book has been impaired for a great length of time. We believe that controls are inadequate, and we therefore do not place a great deal of reliance on the numbers as reported. The high debt levels and low cash generation are also sources of concern. The city must improve its revenue collections. Given the size of the muni, we believe that with adequate controls in place, the financial situation would improve vastly. However, as these results are more than a year overdue, the possibility exists that these problems may be repeated in FY:11.
6 Credit Research
Credit issuance July 2011

Securitisation issuance remained robust in July, with Thekwini 9 and Blue Granite 2 both raising funding. However, both issues raised less than the total amount on offer. Nitro is following this trend, aiming to raise up to R4bn on 11 August. Corporate issuance picked-up, with several issuers raising funding, Toyota was the largest issuing two new bonds and raising R760m. Demand for bank paper remained strong Standard Bank also raised R1.1bn by tapping two bonds.
Table 3: Issues in August and future credit issues Issuer SANRAL Date of issue 3 August Bonds Amount on offer Current/ previous auction details Details on page 8
HWAY23 (2023) R300m NRA022 (2022, 12.25%) NRA023 (2023) NRA028 (2028, 12.25%)
Netcare African Bank Nitro Securitisation 4 Issuer Trust (Nitro 4)
5 August 11 August 11 August
We expect Netcare to issue 3-month CP; the issuer is aiming to raise up to R400m. We expect African Bank to issue 6-month CP; African Bank is aiming to raise up to R200m. 20 notes R4bn The issuer is aiming to raise up to R4bn across 20 notes with various tenors. The following notes will be on offer: 3-month A1 note is expected to raise R345m. Pricing has been set at 3M Jibar + 15 bps; 6-month A2 note is expected to raise R345m and price at 3M Jibar + 30 bps; 9-month A3 note is expected to raise R330m. Pricing has been set at 3M Jibar + 40 bps; 1-year A4 note is expected to raise R320m and price at 3M Jibar + 50 bps; 15-month A5 note is expected to raise R315m and price at 3M Jibar + 60 bps; 18-month A6 note is expected to raise R290m and price at 3M Jibar + 70 bps ; 21-month A7 note is expected to raise R270m and price at 3M Jibar + 80 bps; 2-year A8 note is expected to raise R197m and price at 3M Jibar + 90 bps; 27-month A9 note is expected to raise R177m and price at 3M Jibar + 95 bps; 30-month A10 note is expected to raise R165m and price at 3M Jibar + 100 bps ; 33-month A11 note is expected to raise R151m and price at 3M Jibar + 110 bps; 3-year A12 note is expected to raise R137m and price at 3M Jibar + 120 bps; 39-month A13 note is expected to raise R123m and price at 3M Jibar + 125 bps; 42-month A14 note is expected to raise R109m and price at 3M Jibar + 130 bps; 45-month A15 note is expected to raise R89m and price at 3M Jibar + 140 bps; 4-year A16 note is expected to raise R252m and at 3M Jibar + 145 bps; 4-year B note is expected to raise R174m and price at 3M Jibar + 205 bps; 4-year C note is expected to raise R60m and price at 3M Jibar + 320 bps; 4-year D note is expected to raise R65m and price at 3M Jibar + 420 bps; and 4-year E note is expected to raise R86m and price at 3M Jibar + 500 bps. The pool comprises 37,756 South African auto loans, with an aggregate balance of R3.98bn. The weighted average seasoning of the loans is 19 months, and the weighted average loan balance outstanding is R154k. The transaction is supported by cash totaling R18m. 7 Credit Research
Sources: Standard Bank Research: SOE issuance calendar; issuer announcements
Table 4: Previous credit issues and taps Issuer Denel SANRAL Date of issue 4 July 6 July Bond code 3-month CP Amount raised R590m Details and commentary The paper priced at 3M Jibar + 10 bps. The issue was allocated as follows: The HWAY23 raised R105m and priced at R197 + 22 bps; The NRA022 raised R82m and priced at 110 bps over the R208; The NRA023 raised R3m and priced at 43 bps over the R197; and The NRA028 raised R110m and priced at R186 + 113.5 bps. The issuer was aiming to raise up to R2bn. The issue was allocated as follows: The THE9A1, rated Aa2/Aaa.za, raised R370m and priced at 121 bps over 3M Jibar; wider than the pricing guidance of 100 bps to 115 bps over 3M Jibar; The THE9A2, rated Aa2/Aaa.za, raised R252m and priced at 3M Jibar + 135 bps; the top end of the pricing guidance; The THE9A3, rated Aa2/Aaa.za, raised R816m. The note priced at 3M Jibar + 145 bps the top end of the pricing guidance; The THE9B, rated Baa2/A2.za, raised R69m and priced at 200 bps over 3M Jibar (the top end of the pricing guidance); The THE9C, rated Ba3/Baa3.za, raised R73.5m. The note priced at 3M Jibar + 280 bps, wider than the pricing guidance of 210 bps to 240 bps over 3M Jibar; and The unrated THE9D raised R19.5m and priced at 3M Jibar + 675 bps. Pricing guidance was set at 630 bps to 700 bps over 3M Jibar. All the notes have 5-year tenors. The pool comprises 3,208 loans, with a total current portfolio balance of R1.8bn. The current weighted average LTV stands at 64.09% and the PTI ratio is 18.47%. The issue comprised: The RCSB02, which raised R200m and priced at 3M Jibar + 203 bps; and The RCSB03, which raised R300m and priced at 370 bps over 3M Jibar. The note priced at 145 bps over 3M Jibar. Demand was robust, with 10 bids totalling R660m: The ES23 raised R200m, and priced at 57.5 bps over the R208. The note swapped out at approximately 70 bps over 3M Jibar; and The ES26 raised R100m, and priced at R186 + 57.5 bps. The note swapped out at approximately 82 bps over 3M Jibar. The note priced at 91 bps over the R186. The auction received bids totalling R621m, with nine bids allocated in full.
HWAY23 (2023) R300m NRA022 (2022,12.25%) NRA023 (2023) NRA028 (2028,12.25%)
Thekwini 9
6 July
Six notes
R1.6bn
RCS Investment Holdings (Pty) Ltd
12 July
RCSB02 (2013) RCSB03 (2016)
R500m
Growthpoint Eskom
13 July 13 July
GRT03 (2015) ES23 (2023, 10%) ES26 (2026, 7.85%)
R500m R300m
DBSA
14 July
DV23 (2023, 10%)
R421m
Sources: Standard Bank Research; issuer announcements; JSE
8 Credit Research
Table 4: Previous credit issues and taps (continued) Issuer Real People Investments HoldTCTA Date of issue 19 July Bond code RPI01 (2016) Amount raised R200m Details and commentary The CPI-linked note has a coupon of 5.25% and was privately placed. Demand was robust, with bids of R1.4bn received. The switch was allocated as follows: R435m (the issuer was aiming for R300m) was switched from the WS04 bonds into WSP2 bonds; and R500m of the WS04 bonds were switched into WSP5 bonds. The WSP2 swapped out at approximately 86 bps over 3M Jibar, and the WSP5 swapped out at approximately 3M Jibar + 71 bps. The issue comprised: The CGR7 raised R22.5m and priced at 800 bps over 3M Jibar; and The CGR8 raised R22.5m and priced at 3M Jibar + 1,000 bps. The issue received bids totalling R1.8bn, and was allocated as follows: The floating-rate TFS83 raised R260m, and priced at 3M Jibar + 85 bps; and The fixed-rate TFS84 raised R500m, and priced at R157 + 130 bps. Bids of R400m were received. The issue was allocated as follows: R100m of 6-month paper, which priced at 4 bps over 6M Jibar; and R100m of 12-month paper, which priced at 10 bps over 12M Jibar. The following notes were tapped: The inflation-linked SBSi12 raised R650m, and priced at 70 bps over the R211; and The fixed-rate SBS19 raised R400m, and priced at R208 + 165 bps. The issuer was aiming to raise up to R2.4bn. The issue was allocated as follows: The A1 note, rated Aa2/Aaa.za, raised R225m and priced at 3M Jibar + 140 bps. The pricing was wider than the guidance of 110 bps to 135 bps; The A2 note, rated Aa2/Aaa.za, raised R600m, and priced at 145 bps over 3M Jibar; the top end of pricing guidance; The A3, Aa2/Aaa.za -rated note, raised R1.1bn. The note priced at 3M Jibar + 160 bps; the top end of the pricing guidance; The B mezzanine note, rated Baa1/A1.za, raised R118m, and priced at 210 bps over 3M Jibar (the top end of the pricing guidance); The C mezzanine note, rated Ba1/Baa1.za, raised R77m. The note priced at 3M Jibar + 260 bps; the top end of the pricing guidance; and The D junior note, rated B2/Ba2.za, raised R71m, and priced at 400 bps over 3M Jibar; at the top end of the pricing guidance. The pool comprises 4,324 home loans, with an aggregate balance of R2.2bn. The current weighted average LTV is 67.3% and the PTI ratio is 16.99%. The average seasoning of the pool is 46 months.
21 July
WS04 (2016, 15.5%) WSP2 (2017, 9%) WSP5 (2021, 9%)
R935m
Calgro M3 Development (Pty) Ltd
22 July
CGR7 (2014) CGR8 (2015)
R50m
Toyota
25 July
TFS83 (2015) TFS84 (2016, 8.7%)
R760m
Transnet
26 July
6- and 12-month CP
R200m
Standard Bank
26 and 27 July
SBSi12 (2017) SBS19 (2021, 10.18%)
R1.1bn
Blue Granite Investments No. 2
27 July
Six notes
R2.2bn
Sources: Standard Bank Research; Issuer announcements; JSE
9 Credit Research
Table 4: Previous credit issues and taps (continued) Issuer Bidvest Denel Date of issue 27 July 28 July Bond code 3-month CP 3-month CP 3-month CP Amount raised R1.5bn R550m R300m Details and commentary The paper priced at 22 bps over 3M Jibar. The paper priced at 3M Jibar + 10 bps. The paper, which is rated P-2.za, priced at 38 bps over 3M Jibar.
Growthpoint Prop- 28 July erties Ltd
Sources: Standard Bank Research; Issuer announcements; JSE
Table 5: Coupons and redemptions due in Q3:11 Coupons due (Q3:11) Government Corporate Financial Municipal SOE Securitisation Redemptions (Q3:11) African Bank Mercedes Benz SA Nedbank Nedbank Absa Standard Bank INCA FirstRand Absa Securitisation
Sources: Standard Bank Research; JSE
July R4.2bn R1.1bn R484.7m R43.0m R896.8m R208.6m Bond code ABL5 MBF04 NILB6 NBRN1 ABN01 SBR002 INJ01 FRBI03 ABCL3 -
August R1.6bn R119.8m R446.7m R2.0bn R243.4m Maturity 11 August 2011 22 August 2011 29 August 2011 31 August 2011 15 September 2011 15 September 2011 21 September 2011 30 September 2011 30 September 2011 -
September R11.4bn R381.3m R2.5bn R259.8m R1.3bn R289.9m Amount R597.7m R165m R130m R44m R4m R475m R100m R1.1bn R40m R2.0bn
10 Credit Research
Monthly spread movers July 2011

We have seen very little credit spread activity in July, only 35 bonds recorded moves, while 127 remaining flat. However, we continue to see selective large moves tighter; certain bonds are trading at extremely tight (and occasionally distorted) levels. On the whole, asset swap spreads widened across 124 bonds, with 28 tightening and seven remaining static. Trading volumes remained fairly stable m/m, with 2,684 trades for R15.6bn. As is the norm, the largest amount of trading activity occurred in the AAA space. Both DBSA and Eskom had high trading volumes but this was outweighed by the R4.8bn of trades across TCTAs bonds. New issuance assisted volumes in the AA space, with Toyota raising R760m. Within banks, trades totalled R3bn; the largest was the SBS19, with trades of R904m.
Table 6: Top 10 credit spread and asset swap spread movers July 2011 Top 10 movers CBL08 SMF3 FRX31 COJ04 FRX15 SBS4 NBK8A COJ02 WSP4 BAW11
Sources: JSE, Standard Bank Research
Credit spread movement -250 -95 -58 -20 -18 3 3 3 5 21
ASW movement -222 -105 -26 -10 1 8 14 15 8 0
Spread to benchmark R203 + 250 bps R206 + 30 bps R157 + 75 bps R203 + 200 bps R157 + 75 bps R157 + 263 bps R206 + 131 bps R157 + 253 bps R204 + 74 bps R204 + 168 bps
Trading activity R20.0m R161.8m R254.3m R50.3m R422.7m R1.2m R53.3m
The CBL08 was the largest mover of the month, tightening by 250 bps. The bond is now pricing more in line with Capitecs other bonds, and therefore this tightening action appears reasonable. However, we believe the SMF3 is market anomaly, as the bond is pricing at 30 bps over its benchmark. Given Sappis underlying credit quality, and the pricing of the other Sappi bonds with the recently issued SSA01 (2016, 12.13%) pricing at R203 + 150 bps the pricing on this bond is out of line with the market. We view the SMF3 as extremely mis-priced at its current spread. However, we note that the bond did trade at this level.
Figure 6: Credit spread movers (July)
Figure 7: Asset swap spread movers (July)
100
bps
88
bps
-100
-88
-200
-176
-300
-264
X3 1 IN J0 1 O M N 01 M E T0 1 AB L1 1A BI D 01
BL 08
BL 08 SM F3 FR X3 1 C O J0 4 FR X1 5 SB S4 N BK 8A C O J0 2 W S P BA 4 W 11
Credit spread movers

Interpolated spread movers
Credit spread movers

Asset sw ap spread movers
T0 18 C BL 06
SM
FR
F3
11 Credit Research
Rating agency actions July 2011

Previous Rating rating action
Issuer Transnet
Rating
Commentary Fitch has affirmed Transnets local and foreign ratings at BBB+/F2 and BBB-/F3, respectively. The national scale ratings were also affirmed at AAA(zaf) (government guaranteed debt) and AA-(zaf) (senior unsecured debt). The outlook is stable. Agency view: The agency views Transnets role in SA as critical because it has a monopoly position in freight rail, ports and pipelines. The ratings reflect its operational, legal and strategic ties to the SA government. Transnet is rated on a top-down basis; therefore, any change in the sovereigns rating or the level of government support is likely to impact on the ratings. Fitch expects Transnets standalone credit profile to weaken over the next three to five years because of its R110.6bn capex programme. The programme is expected to be funded by both internally generated cash and long-term debt. The agency expects free cash flow to remain negative. However, higher tariffs, improved productivity and efficiency, and cost management could reduce the impact of the capex programme on cash flow. The rating agency does not expect the government to guarantee new debt; currently, R9.5bn of the groups debt (of R60bn) is guaranteed by the government. Standard Bank Research view: We expect Transnet to remain cash generative, and we expect the entity should be able to fund at least part of its capex by cash. We also expect the SA government will support the entity, if required. Therefore, we agree with the rating action.
BBB+/F2 BBB+/F2 BBB-/F3 BBB-/F3
Vodacom
zaAA-/ zaA-1
S&P has assigned Vodacom a national scale rating of zaAA-/zaA-1. Agency view: S&P views Vodacom as a leading mobile operator in SAs mature telecos market. The group generates robust free cash flow and has a moderate amount of debt. S&P expects Vodacoms SA operations to remain resilient over the next 12 months, maintaining a strong market position, robust profitability and solid cash flows. The agency also expects the group to carefully manage risks relating to its international operations, and to maintain a conservative capital structure commensurate with its rating. The rating is constrained by intensifying competition and increasing regulatory pressures in SA, large capex requirements, and above-average risks (political, operational and currency) in Vodacoms international markets. Standard Bank Research view: Vodacom is a prominent player in the SA telecos market. The ratings appear appropriate for the level of risk associated with the industry.
Blue Granite Investments No. 2 (Pty) Ltd
Blue Granite Investments No. 2 (Pty) Ltds residential mortgage backed notes have been assigned provisional ratings by Moodys as follows: The class A1 notes were assigned ratings of (P)Aa2 (sf) /(P)Aaa.za (sf); The class A2 notes were assigned ratings of (P)Aa2 (sf) /(P)Aaa.za (sf); The class A3 notes were assigned ratings of (P)Aa2 (sf) /(P)Aaa.za (sf); The class B notes were assigned ratings of (P)Baa1 (sf) /(P)A1.za (sf); The class C notes were assigned ratings of (P)Ba1 (sf) /(P)Baa1.za (sf); and The class D notes were assigned ratings of (P)B2 (sf) /(P)Ba2.za (sf). Agency view: The provisional ratings take into account the credit quality of the underlying mortgage loan pool, the expected loss of the portfolio, the transaction structure, and any legal considerations underpinning the agencys assessment model. The notes are supported by prime mortgage loans secured by residential properties in South Africa and four separate cash reserve funds. Moodys will assign final ratings to the notes once the transaction details have been finalised. Standard Bank Research view: The portfolio is well seasoned, and we believe this has been taken into account in assigning ratings to the transaction.
Sources: Standard Bank Research; Fitch Ratings; Standard & Poors; Moodys Investor Services
12 Credit Research
Rating agency actions July 2011 (continued)

Previous rating A/A1Rating action
Issuer Basil Read
Rating A-/A1-
Commentary GCR has placed Basil Reads A-/A1- rating on a ratings watch. Agency view: The challenging conditions in the construction industry were the primary reason for the action. The scarcity of new contracts and tender delays from the government also contributed to the action. The agency views the lower margins (partially due to rising input costs) as concerning. However, the groups core roads division (which accounts for 66% of total earnings) aided the groups robust net profits. The group has expanded its operations into mining through TWP (its mining subsidiary). In FY:10, the mining division grew its order book to R9.1bn; R4bn of which relates to projects in FY:11. Standard Bank Research view: All players in the construction sector appear to be under pressure. Within this context, we view the action as appropriate.
Eskom
A A AAA(zaf)/ AAA(zaf)/ F1+(zaf) F1+(zaf)
Fitch has affirmed Eskoms long-term local currency rating at A, and its national scale rating at AAA(zaf)/F1+(zaf). The outlook is stable. Agency view: Fitch has stated that any rating action taken on the sovereign would result in a similar action on the utility. The government increased its support to Eskom during FY:11. Fitch believes that higher levels of transparency from the government and regulators should allow Eskoms standalone credit profile to normalise this could result in an international investment-grade rating over the medium term. Eskom is strategically important to South Africa, supplying approximately 95% of the countrys electricity requirements. The utility's revenue increased by 28.6% during FY:11, boosted by higher electricity tariffs. Fitch expects the higher tariffs and lower operational costs to aid Eskoms financial profile over the medium term. Standard Bank Research view: Eskom is aiming to achieve stand-alone investment grade ratings by 2014/2015. We believe this will be extremely difficult to achieve, and unlikely to occur in the medium term. We view Eskoms ratings as supported by the SA government but we disagree with Fitchs comments.
Impala Platinum Holding Ltd (Implats)
Withdrawn
BBB/F3 A+(zaf)/ F1(zaf)
Fitch has affirmed and withdrawn Implats BBB/F3 global foreign currency rating and its A+ (zaf)/F1(zaf) national scale rating. Agency view: Implats will not continue to participate in the agencys credit rating process. Moodys has assigned final ratings to Thekwini Fund 9s residential mortgage backed notes as follows: The THE9A1 note was rated Aa2 (sf) /Aaa.za (sf); The THE9A2 note was rated Aa2 (sf) /Aaa.za (sf); The THE9A3 note was rated Aa2 (sf) /Aaa.za (sf); The THE9B note was rated Baa2 (sf) /A2.za (sf); and The THE9C note was rated Ba3 (sf) /Baa3.za (sf). Moodys has withdrawn the provisional rating for the Class A4 note, which was not issued. Agency view: The ratings take into account the credit quality of the underlying mortgage pool, the expected loss of the portfolio, the transaction structure, and any legal considerations as assessed by Moodys. The definitive ratings also take into account the expected loss relating to the 5-year tenor of the notes. The notes are supported by prime mortgage loans which are secured by residential properties in South Africa. Standard Bank Research view: The SA Home Loans portfolio has historically performed well. The transaction has a WA LTV of 64.09% and a PTI ratio of 18.47%. We view the originator as robust, and expect the transaction to be well-managed. Therefore, the ratings appear appropriate.
Thekwini Fund 9 (Pty) Ltd
13 Credit Research

Previous Rating rating action A-(zaf)/ F2(zaf) -
Issuer Steinhoff International Holdings Limited
Rating A-(zaf)/ F2(zaf)
Commentary Fitch has commented on the sale of Steinhoff SAs retail business to the JD Group. Agency view: The transaction is not expected to have an effect on Steinhoffs rating of A-(zaf)/F2(zaf). The sale of Steinhoffs SA retail business, which includes its automobile retail and building materials businesses, amounted to R3.2bn with R702m be funded by cash, and the remaining R2.5bn paid via JD Group shares. JD Group is, in turn, waiting for the Polish Competition Authorities approval for the impending sale of its Polish furniture retail business to an associate of the Steinhoff group, valued at R134m. Fitch views Steinhoffs new business developments and its market and strategic re-profiling positively. The agency also noted that the Conforama transaction would increase its European presence. Although Fitch expects neither transaction to have a significant impact on Steinhoffs current leverage profile, the agency believes that the groups net adjusted leverage position would moderate once the deals have been finalised. Standard Bank Research view: We view these transactions positively, and do not believe the rating should be impacted.
Absa Group Ltd (Absa) and Absa Bank Ltd
AAA(zaf)/ AAA(zaf)/ F1+(zaf) F1+(zaf)
Fitch has affirmed Absas and Absa Banks global rating at A, and national scale rating at AAA(zaf)/F1+(zaf). The outlook is stable. Agency view: The ratings take into account the high likelihood of support from Absas parent (Barclays Bank plc). The Viability Rating (VR) of bbb+ takes into account the banks position in the SA market and its adequate capital levels. However, a decline in asset quality (which the agency believes could continue in the medium term) restricts the VR. Fitch noted that revenue has been pressurised in recent years because interest rates are low and loan book growth has been muted. However, earnings have remained constant; net interest income has been aided by the groups hedging activities. Although the agency expects revenue growth to remain soft in FY:11, earnings may grow because of lower impairment charges. However, rising costs could negatively impact earnings growth. Fitch views Absa and Absa Banks core Tier 1 capital levels as acceptable in light of poorer asset quality and the performance of the mortgage book. Standard Bank Research view: Absas performance has been pressurised by the weak lending environment. However, we view the bank as well capitalised. We expect Absa to continue to perform reasonably well under the currently strained economic conditions. Therefore, the affirmation appears appropriate.
Liberty Group Limited
AA(zaf) (IFS) AA-(zaf) A+(zaf)
AA(zaf) (IFS) AA-(zaf) A+(zaf)
Fitch has changed Libertys outlook to stable, from negative. The groups Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) rating was affirmed at AA(zaf), the national scale rating at AA-(zaf), and the subordinated debt rating at A+(zaf). Agency view: The change in outlook stems from an improvement in the management of policyholder persistency; persistency levels were more robust than expected in FY:10, even though actuarial assumptions were not materially altered. However, new business margins remained low because the group has focused on writing higher quality business, which has resulted in lower volumes. Relatively higher acquisition costs have also impacted on new business margins. However, the agency expects these margins to improve somewhat in H2:11 because new actuarial assumptions are likely to take improved persistency levels into account. The ratings are supported by Libertys strong capital profile, its established position and diverse distribution networks in SA, and its prudent risk management practices. The groups success with Standard Bank in the bancassurance business also supports the rating. However, Liberty is exposed to volatility in investment markets which constrains its rating. Although the agency does not view an upgrade in the short- to medium term as likely, an upgrade could occur if new business margins increase, volumes improve, and capital levels remain robust. Standard Bank Research view: The outlook has been adjusted because the agency believes Libertys performance is improving. Libertys performance has been muted; we agree with the agencys statement that an upgrade is unlikely in the short-to-medium term.
14 Credit Research

Previous rating BBBpi Rating action -
Issuer
Rating
Commentary S&P has converted SBSAs BBBpi counterparty rating to an unsolicited rating of BBB/A-2. The outlook is positive. Agency view: The conversion stems from a change in the agencys structured finance criteria for counterparty and supporting obligations. The unsolicited rating will form part of the credit rating of Blue Granites class A notes. The rating is supported by SBSAs position in the SA banking industry and its position in the Standard Bank Group the largest financial services group in Africa. SBSAs stable funding from deposits and improving asset quality and earnings also support the rating. However, S&P noted that the rating is constrained by the groups dependence on short-term corporate funding and the weak performance of its mortgage portfolio. The agency expects the groups financial profile may improve as economic conditions and the housing market have shown signs of improvement, which is taken into account with a positive outlook. The agency expects operating and risk costs to decline slowly in 2011/12, which could boost asset quality and earnings. Standard Bank Research view: The agency has highlighted SBSAs strengths and challenges, and we view the rating as appropriate.
Standard BBB/A-2 Bank of South Africa (SBSA)
Prime Realty Obligors Packaged Securities Series 2 Class A notes
AAA(zaf)
AAA(zaf)
Fitch has affirmed Prime Realty Obligors Packaged Securities Series 2s class A2 notes at AAA(zaf); the outlook is stable. Currently, R621m is outstanding on these notes. Agency view: The transaction was restructured on 4 January; four outstanding loans were repaid and the proceeds were used to redeem the class A1, B and C notes for R941m. Two loans remain in the portfolio. The value of the portfolio has increased by 57% since 2007; therefore, the LTV ratio has increased to 31.2%. However, Fitch does not rely on the LTV ratio to assess the rating. The debt yield (of >20%) is viewed positively by the agency. The early repayments of the loans has caused the weighted average interest coverage ratio to decline; however, it is still robust at 2.54x. Standard Bank Research view: The transaction is substantially smaller, and therefore the affirmation appears acceptable.
Standard Bank of SA (SBSA) Standard Bank Group (SBG)
BBB+/F2 AA(zaf)/ F1+(zaf)
BBB+/F2 AA(zaf)/ F1+(zaf)
Fitch has taken the following rating actions on SBSAs and SBGs ratings: SBSAs foreign currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) were affirmed at BBB+/F2; SBSAs local currency IDR was affirmed at BBB+; SBSAs AA(zaf)/F1+(zaf) national ratings were affirmed; SBSAs senior unsecured debt ratings were affirmed at BBB+/F2; SBG was assigned foreign currency IDRs of BBB+/F2; SBG was assigned a local currency IDR of BBB+; SBG was assigned a Support Rating Floor of NF (no floor); SBGs national short-term rating of F1+(zaf) was affirmed; and SBSA and SBGs bbb+ viability ratings were affirmed. The outlook on all ratings is stable. The viability ratings of SBSA and SBG are the same, at bbb+, due to the SARBs consistent supervision of both entities, as both groups entities are highly integrated. Agency view: SBSAs entrenched position in SA, the consistent profitability in its core operations, and capital levels were noted as positive rating contributors. These factors are offset by weakening asset quality trends, which may continue into the medium term. However, the agency believes that this trend may have reached a peak after slowing during FY:10. The ratings also account for the groups risky global emerging market banking operations. In FY:10, SBSAs earnings increased, significantly aided by profits from Liberty. Standard Bank Research view: The ratings are commensurate with Standard Banks performance and appear appropriate.
15 Credit Research

Previous rating Rating action
Issuer Nitro Securitisation 4 Issuer Trust
Rating
Commentary Moodys has assigned provisional ratings to the three tranches of Nitro 4 asset backed notes as follows: The Class A1 to A14 notes, which are expected to raise a total of R3.2bn, were assigned ratings of (P)Aa2 (sf) / (P)Aaa.za (sf); The Class B notes, which are expected to raise R286m, were assigned ratings of (P) Baa2 (sf) / (P)A1.za (sf); and The Class C notes, which are expected to raise R140m, were assigned ratings of (P) Ba2 (sf) / (P)Baa1.za (sf). Agency view: The provisional ratings take into account eight years of historical performance data, credit enhancements supplied by the arrears reserve, the subordination of the notes, the liquidity support available in the transaction, and any legal considerations underpinning the transaction. The notes are supported by SA auto loans, originated through dealerships. Moodys will assign final ratings to the notes once the transaction details have been finalised. Standard Bank Research view: The ratings take into account the underlying assets and therefore appear appropriate for the level of risk in the transaction.
Mondi plc
Baa3
Baa3
Moodys has changed the outlook on Mondis Baa3 domestic currency issuer rating to positive, from stable, following the release of the groups H1:11 results. Mondi Finance plcs rating remains at Baa3/P-3. Agency view: Mondis financial metrics have improved because prices have increased over time, and demand and supply fundamentals for paper products in Europe have equalised. The groups position within its rating band is strong because of its diversified business (both geographically and by products), reduced debt levels, strong market position, and consistently strong financial metrics. Moodys expects Mondi may continue to produce high cash flows due to improved working capital management and lower capex spend. Standard Bank Research view: The rating factors in the risks associated with the paper industry and therefore appear appropriate.
Savcio Holdings
B+
B+
S&P has placed Savcios B+ rating on CreditWatch with developing implications, as shareholders intend to sell the company to Actom. Agency view: Savcio and Actom have entered into a binding sales agreement, involving a complete sale of Savcios issued share capital to Actom. Savcios ratings will be withdrawn if the debt is repaid under the transaction. Savcio currently has notes outstanding that may be called in February 2012. The agreement is pending regulatory approval. S&P will assess the method of funding to be used for the transaction, and the combined leverage of Savcio and Actom on completion of the transaction. The agency expects to conclude its assessment once the details of the transaction have been finalised. Standard Bank Research view: We cannot comment on the rating action until the transaction details have been finalised.
16 Credit Research
Debt capital market issuance

Total issuance per sector Total annual credit issuance
8.9% 6.8% 2.4%
2.7%
100
Rbn
33.2% 10.6% ;
75
50
3.9% 31.4% 25
Municipal Government Water Authorities Corporates Credit Linked Notes

State Ow ned Enterprises Financial Sector Commercial Paper Securitisation
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Credit
Securitisation
Forecast vs. actual issuance
CP issuance
35
Rbn
64
Rbn
Rbn
28
26
48
21
18
32
14
16
0
s ls ti on itie s SO E orate Finan cia r iti sa ci pal Cor p Sec u Muni
0 Dec-02
Oct-05 Issued/month (RHS)
Aug-08
Jun-11
Outstanding issuance
2011 forecast
2011 YTD
17 Credit Research
Credit and asset swap spreads

Credit spreads rating Asset swap spreads rating
280
bps
300
bps
210
200
140
100
70
0 Jan-03
Sep-04 May-06 AAA
Jan-08 AA
Oct-09 A
Jun-11
-100 Jan-03
Sep-04
May-06 AAA
Jan-08 AA
Oct-09 A
Jun-11
Sources: Standard Bank Research; JSE; iNet
Credit spreads sector
Asset swap spreads sector
280
bps
300
bps
210
200
140
100
70
Jan-03 Sep-04 May-06 SOE Jan-08 Oct-09 Jun-11 Financials Corporates
-100 Jan-03
Sep-04 SOE
May-06 Jan-08 Oct-09 Jun-11 Financials Corporate
Sources: Standard Bank Research; JSE; iNet
SA swap rates
SA Jibar and repo rates
15
% 16
12
13
10
7 6 4 Jan-08 Sep-08 1yr Jun-09 2yr Feb-10 5yr Nov-10 Jul-11 10yr
3 Jan-08
Sep-08 Repo 6m Jibar
Jun-09
Feb-10
Nov-10
Jul-11
1m Jibar 12m Jibar
3m Jibar
18 Credit Research
Credit spreads (to government benchmarks)

AAA AA
360
bps
480
bps
240
320
120
160
-120 Mar-10
Feb-15
Jan-20 Dec-24 Nov-29 Spread To Benchmark
Nov-34
-160 May-10
May-17
May-24
May-31
May-38
May-45
Spread To Benchmark
Financial sector paper
640
bps
630
bps
480
420
320
210
160
-160 Jan-10
Oct-11
Jun-13 Mar-15 Nov-16 Spread To Benchmark
Aug-18
-210 May-10
May-17
May-24 AAA AA
Jun-31 A
Jun-38
Jun-45
Sources: Standard Bank Research; JSE Note: Data as at 29 July 2011
19 Credit Research
Coupons and redemptions 2011

Upcoming coupon payments per sector 2011 Redemptions per sector 2011
Rbn 15
14.0
Rbn
11
10.5
7.0
3.5
Se pt em be r N ov em be r Ja nu ar y h M ay Ju ly M ar c
Jan Mar May Corporate Jul Govi Sep Nov Securitisation
Government
Corporate
Securitisation
Future redemptions
150
Rbn
113
75
38
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Corporate 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
Government
Securitisation
20 Credit Research
International debt capital markets

Sovereign credit default swap spreads1 iTraxx Indices2
Brazil Bulgaria China Kazakhstan Mexico Russia South Africa Thailand Turkey 0 62.5 01-Jul-11 125 187.5 250 bps
1,200
price
900
600
300
Jan-08 Sep-08
Jun-09 Feb-10
Nov-10
Jul-11
31-Jul-11
Europe Crossover Subordinated Financials
HiVol Senior Financials
EMBI vs. SA sovereign CDS1
USD rates
940
bps
705
470
235
0 Apr-07
Feb-08
Dec-08
Nov-09
Sep-10
Jul-11
0 Dec-06
Nov-07
Oct-08
Sep-09
Aug-10
Jul-11
SA Sovereign CDS
EMBI Global Spread
USD LIBOR
USD Overnight Indexed Sw ap (OIS)
Notes: 1. Sovereign CDS: Cost of protection against default by sovereign entity. Higher value denotes increased default worry with protection correspondingly more expensive. 2. iTraxx: Basket of credit derivatives representing different segments of debt in Europe. Higher values imply increased cost to buying protection. Graph above is a generic Bloomberg quote, combining the various iTraxx indices.
21 Credit Research
Fixed-rate notes per rating band

Spread to benchmark (bps) Bond code Summary Issue size Maturity Govi Coupon (%) Issue date rating (Rbn) date Benchmark 1-month change Asset swap spreads (bps) 29-Jul 1-month change Liquidity No of trades Nominal traded (Rm)
Issuer
At issue
29-Jul
AAA
6 African Dev. Bank ADB01S
AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA
1.00 0.20 2.00 1.60 1.00 7.33 6.66 0.31 0.15 11.81 4.21 7.95 11.90 14.51 14.99 0.38 7.03 2.60 0.65 1.91 4.01 8.43 0.37 0.92 0.40 0.40 1.80 6.00
9.04 8.98 9.53 10.06 15.00 9.45 10.00 9.96 10.02 13.50 7.75 9.25 10.00 7.85 7.50 13.50 9.75 9.25 9.25 12.50 9.00 12.50 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 10.75
14-Dec-07 14-Dec-12 14-Dec-07 14-Dec-12 09-Apr-08 09-Apr-13 25-Aug-08 25-Aug-13 31-May-00 15-Jun-16 07-Feb-08 07-Feb-20 21-Feb-03 27-Feb-23 10-Jun-03 31-Jul-12
R155 R155 R155 R157 R157 R207 R186 R155 R155 R203 R157 R204 R208 R186 R209 R186 R207 R209 R209 R157 R186 R157 R157 R203 R207 R204 R207 R201
7 68 90 85 75 56 66 75 72 52 83 40 -
-52 -58 -13 90 90 90 92 308 313 66 47 47 57 57 58 18 57 57 57 55 54 38 55 61 44 74 63 30
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 -5 5 0 0
-119 -126 -94 189 103 116 139 0 0 75 63 85 83 95 137 90 82 157 159 80 100 41 83 93 77 86 81 57
5 5 8 11 14 8 15 0 0 7 15 5 6 12 15 18 8 19 19 17 14 12 18 7 4 8 8 21
0 0 0 0 24 49 86 3 3 11 42 67 0 87 52 0 48 17 0 2 6 111 2 57 3 3 23 0
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.00 83.25 1,203.78 0.14 0.21 42.35 494.71 572.37 0.00 560.87 309.40 0.00 8.98 3.27 0.00 0.00 12.00 2,593.99 28.60 1,035.29 1.00 1.20 1,184.25 0.00
ADB02S6 ADB03S DBSA DV13 DV21 DV22 DV23 Eagle EGL01 EGL02 Eskom E170 ES155 ES185 ES235 ES26
5 6
02-Apr-04 30-Nov-11 01-Jul-92 01-Aug-20 30-Aug-10 30-Aug-15 20-Apr-09 20-Apr-18 25-Jan-10 25-Jan-23 02-Apr-07 02-Apr-26 20-Mar-06 15-Sep-33 27-Oct-97 31-Oct-27 11-Aug-09 31-Jul-20 11-Aug-09 31-Jul-34 20-Aug-10 31-Jul-35 04-Jun-96 30-Sep-15 10-Sep-03 30-Sep-25 20-Mar-01 30-May-16 28-May-03 28-May-15 28-May-03 28-May-17 28-May-03 28-May-19 28-May-03 28-May-20 28-May-03 28-May-21 06-Jul-04 15-Jul-14
ES335 Komati River SA Roads KW01

5 5
HWAY20
AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA AAA
HWAY345 HWAY35 SZ185 SZ255 TCTA WS045 WSP15 WSP25 WSP35 WSP4
5 5
WSP55 Transnet T018

5
AA
Absa AB051 AB061 AB071 AB091 9 ABS53 ABS63 ABS73 ABS93 ABS103 ACSA AIR01 AIR02 AIR03 City of Cape Town CCT01 CCT02 CCT03 City of JHB COJ02 COJ03 COJ04 COJ05 COJ06 COJ07 AA AA AA AA AA+ AA+ AA+ AA+ AA+ AAAAAAAA AA AA AA+ AAAAAAAAAA1.50 2.00 1.73 0.60 2.23 0.49 0.30 0.30 0.227 2.00 1.71 1.73 1.00 1.20 2.00 1.00 0.70 1.73 2.27 0.90 0.85 8.75 8.10 8.80 10.28 8.30 8.20 8.80 9.37 9.88 8.58 11.68 10.86 12.57 11.615 11.16 11.90 9.70 9.00 12.21 10.815 10.78 01-Sep-05 01-Sep-12 27-Mar-06 27-Mar-15 07-Mar-07 07-Mar-14 03-May-10 03-May-17 23-Apr-07 01-May-15 18-Jun-07 11-Jun-20 11-Sep-07 11-Sep-26 17-Mar-11 17-Mar-16 17-Mar-11 17-Mar-18 15-Mar-07 15-Mar-19 30-Apr-08 30-Apr-23 09-Mar-09 09-Mar-16 23-Jun-08 23-Jun-23 12-Jun-09 12-Jun-24 15-Mar-10 15-Mar-25 30-Jun-04 15-Sep-16 26-Apr-05 26-Apr-13 05-Jun-06 05-Jun-18 05-Jun-08 05-Jun-23 09-Dec-08 09-Dec-15 23-Mar-11 23-Mar-21 R201 R157 R201 R203 R157 R207 R186 R157 R203 R204 R186 R157 R186 R186 R186 R157 R157 R203 R208 R157 R208 63 68 110 80 150 135 100 240 280 220 260 208 164 154 120 230 265 195 40 145 160 175 125 165 185 150 135 155 180 135 185 165 140 253 135 200 230 172 190 0 0 0 -40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 3 0 -20 0 0 0 145 174 198 210 152 172 210 152 155 169 238 144 253 225 198 251 249 205 270 188 216 2 18 18 -28 18 8 13 14 7 5 15 13 16 15 15 15 8 -10 9 16 9 8 47 6 0 37 51 13 9 17 22 9 20 6 3 19 0 0 37 6 0 16 14.00 32.59 12.55 0.00 14.38 278.55 4.82 6.20 2.62 0.87 3.60 40.02 2.80 1.40 11.73 0.00 0.00 254.31 2.12 0.00 5.16
22 Credit Research
Fixed-rate notes per rating band (continued)

Spread to benchmark (bps) Bond code Summary Issue size Coupon (%) Issue date rating (Rbn) Maturity Govi At issue date Benchmark 1-month change Asset swap spreads (bps) 29-Jul 1-month change Liquidity No of trades Nominal traded (Rm)
Issuer
29-Jul
AA (continued)
Ekurhuleni Metro EMM01 EMM02 Firstrand FRB031 FRB051 FRBC214 FRX143 FRX153 FRX183 FRX24 FRX31
3 3
AA AA AAAAAAAA AA AA AA AA AA AA6
0.82 0.80 1.74 2.11 0.63 0.70 3.52 0.73 0.46 0.11 0.25 0.35 0.50 3.24 0.76 0.48 0.45 1.14 3.00 0.63 0.47 0.13 2.55 2.70 3.48 1.60 2.00 3.00 1.50 1.50 1.60 0.75 0.50 1.00 0.08 2.75 0.70 1.25 1.00 0.50 7.00 4.03 4.19 2.07 7.00 0.60
10.56 10.72 9.00 8.50 12.00 8.50 8.75 10.50 10.75 9.50 8.00 10.14 9.35 10.55 11.39 9.68 8.39 9.36 8.92 13.00 9.97 11.25 12.25 12.25 12.25 9.94 9.50 9.63 8.2 8.40 10.82 8.20 8.60 9.06 11.01 11.42 8.90 10.18 8.05 8.70 9.25 10.50 10.80 9.50 8.90 10.70
28-Jul-10
28-Jul-20
R208 R208 R157 R204 R204 R206 R157 R204 R186 R203 R214 R155 R207 R157 R207 R157 R208 R157 R157 R155 R208 R157 R204 R208 R186 R155 R155 R157 R201 R204 R157 R186 R157 R155 R201 R157 R203 R208 R206 R157 R203 R208 R186 R186 R186 R208
185 185 80 95 375 135 165 165 190 180 135 150 200 265 175 128 150 72 205 235 235 220 100 95 110 69 88 250 80 57 75 175 260 125 170 35 130 110 171 200 123 95 160
185 185 133 200 420 104 75 103 137 122 143 131 105 122 160 126 131 150 130 185 145 100 108 110 111 105 155 147 115 185 165 70 263 171 150 120 125 165 120 130 111 106 105 107 105 150
0 0 0 0 -2 -16 -18 -13 -9 -58 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 -1 0 0 0 -11 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 -5 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0
212 211 185 210 437 94 110 145 190 206 211 113 126 144 200 158 140 151 142 143 0 176 152 151 190 61 138 176 192 206 155 109 176 150 236 121 147 186 129 0 134 137 159 151 148 179
9 9 19 6 6 -3 1 -6 6 -26 10 -14 8 17 10 18 14 14 15 1 0 18 -5 8 13 0 -12 19 9 7 12 13 8 -11 9 13 7 4 11 0 7 8 14 14 13 9
2 16 38 16 32 20 30 0 2 0 0 0 0 62 14 16 0 33 53 0 16 0 6 80 22 9 6 35 18 12 0 0 41 0 0 25 2 73 10 42 47 59 31 28 72 23
2.07 10.09 30.84 2.14 172.30 266.04 50.29 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 424.18 0.08 28.80 0.00 5.93 58.04 0.00 1.31 0.00 36.40 429.56 476.90 30.40 10.10 54.72 2.29 229.90 0.00 0.00 422.66 0.00 0.00 20.50 2.00 904.40 7.47 1,211.53 242.68 62.49 93.65 23.14 65.12 0.00
11-Mar-11 11-Mar-21 31-Oct-05 15-Sep-14 23-Jun-06 21-Dec-18 22-Apr-08 21-Dec-18 01-Sep-10 01-Sep-14 14-Mar-08 14-Mar-15 14-Apr-10 14-Apr-18
10-Dec-09 10-Dec-24 21-Feb-11 21-Feb-31 14-Apr-10 30-Oct-06 24-Jul-07 14-Apr-45 30-Oct-11 24-Jul-20
FRX453 MCB Nam Power Nedbank MCB1M6 NMP20N NBK2A

3
AAAA-/AA+ AA-/AA+ AA-/AA+ AA-/AA+ AA-/AA+ AA AA+ AA+ AA AA AA AA AA-/AA AAAAAAAAAAAA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA+ AA+ AAAAAAAAAAAA+
09-Sep-09 15-Sep-15 09-Sep-09 09-Sep-19 19-Apr-10 19-Apr-15
NBK3A3 NBK6A NBK8A NBK9A Old Mutual Rand Water

3
23-Mar-11 24-Mar-14 23-Mar-11 23-Mar-16 27-Oct-05 16-Nov-00 21-Apr-11 27-Oct-15 31-Jul-12 21-Apr-21
OML011 RW02 RW21
SA Roads
NRA014 NRA018 NRA022 NRA028
22-Sep-08 30-Apr-14 15-Jul-08 15-Jul-08 15-Jul-08 19-Jul-07 30-Nov-18 31-Oct-22 30-Nov-28 19-Jul-12
SABSA Standard Bank
BEER01 SBK51 SBK71 SBK81 SBK91 SBK121 SBS33 SBS43 SBS5 SBS7
3 3
17-Nov-04 17-Nov-11 24-May-05 24-May-15 10-Apr-06 10-Apr-06 10-Apr-13 10-Apr-18
24-Nov-09 24-Nov-16 25-May-06 25-May-26 16-Nov-06 16-Nov-21 07-Dec-06 07-Dec-11 26-Mar-08 26-Mar-13 07-Jul-09 07-Jul-16
SBS93 SBS133 SBS19 Toyota TFS06 TFS84 Transnet TN17 TN20 TN23 TN25 TN27 Umgeni UG21
3
22-Sep-10 22-Sep-17 23-Jun-11 23-Jun-21
20-Mar-07 20-Mar-14 28-Jul-11 28-Jul-16
14-Nov-07 14-Nov-17 17-Sep-09 17-Sep-20 06-Nov-08 06-Nov-23 19-Aug-10 19-Aug-25 14-Nov-07 14-Nov-27 02-Mar-10 02-Mar-21
A
African Bank ABL53 ABL63 ABL73 ABL8A3 A+ A+ A+ A+ 0.60 0.45 0.82 0.63 9.70 10.25 11.85 13.00 11-Aug-06 11-Aug-11 18-Jun-07 18-Jun-12 R155 R201 R201 R201 135 190 305 375 142 151 150 250 0 0 0 0 0 267 238 319 -143 -1 7 14 0 4 18 14 0.00 0.16 0.56 4.06
18-Feb-08 18-Feb-13 19-Sep-08 19-Sep-13
23 Credit Research

Spread to benchmark (bps) Bond code Summary Issue size Maturity Govi Coupon (%) Issue date At issue rating (Rbn) date Benchmark 1-month change Asset swap spreads (bps) 29-Jul 1-month change Liquidity No of trades Nominal traded (Rm)
Issuer A (continued) African Bank
29-Jul
ABL10A3 ABL11A3 ABLS2A1
A+ A+ A A+/AAA+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A A A A A+ A A A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A/AAA/AAA/AAA/AAA/AAA+ A A A/AAA/AAA/AAA/AAA+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA
0.50 0.53 0.52 1.00 0.75 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.46 1.50 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.16 0.80 0.55 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.23 0.06 0.57 0.078 0.232 0.032 0.33 0.18 1.51 2.06 0.20 0.13 2.00 0.50 1.00 1.30 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.80 0.65 1.70 1.00 0.12 0.11 1.16 0.83 1.00
11.50 9.50 15.50 9.77 11.67 8.31 8.73 9.94 9.80 10.19 11.20 12.48 13.00 14.10 10.52 9.20 9.00 9.04 9.78 10.04 8.84 10.35 8.75 9.51 9.99 8.46 16.00 16.00 10.75 13.74 10.55 8.93 9.25 8.50 10.19 9.36 10.13 7.80 9.84 9.03 8.90 10.54 10.38 10.79 9.54 9.64 8.25
15-Mar-10 15-Mar-15 29-Sep-10 29-Sep-14 13-Jul-09 13-Jul-16
R157 R201 R203 R157 R157 R206 R201 R203 R204 R201 R206 R201 R201 R203 R203 R155 R201 R201 R203 R157 R157 R157 R206 R157 R203 R206 R155 R155 R201 R204 R157 R155 R201 R157 R201 R157 R203 R206 R201 R155 R201 R157 R201 R155 R201 R157 R203
325 230 625 173 275 144 173 238 165 145 415 430 500 231 134 120 125 210 166 210 149 160 145 190 116 450 120 128 68 150 157 169 100 105 95 117 185 200 205 100 110 106
240 220 500 140 180 144 173 205 168 150 140 140 260 250 230 200 125 155 190 -55 65 110 149 155 145 142 86 165 195 450 258 120 115 157 120 134 151 94 121 100 100 200 190 128 75 165 190
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 -250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
282 234 579 171 205 173 186 228 0 175 226 265 286 321 285 166 247 191 213 98 241 150 159 157 166 0 53 137 279 498 282 67 124 169 147 157 182 119 181 74 141 220 284 112 139 155 202
19 21 13 19 17 6 20 8 0 21 -8 -2 22 -222 12 -10 -2 19 8 -4 -12 19 11 14 7 0 -9 -9 9 9 19 2 21 16 0 18 8 7 14 -4 17 17 6 -18 13 12 7
11 22 18 11 16 0 0 0 17 26 3 0 15 4 13 8 35 14 37 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 15 15 2 8 0 28 2 42 40 13 22 2 6 8 11 4 0 0 26 15 18
4.81 6.14 4.65 9.34 6.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 53.34 38.79 4.40 0.00 0.12 20.00 0.15 5.72 121.59 0.19 12.50 0.00 0.00 6.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.62 65.36 2.00 0.52 0.00 381.10 9.00 27.95 59.64 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.40 27.14 0.10 0.20 0.00 0.00 265.95 1.23 65.00
Anglo American SA Finance Barloworld
AA03 BAW2 BAW5 BAW7 BAW8 BAW11
11-May-10 11-May-15 02-Oct-08 02-Oct-15 15-Sep-10 15-Sep-13 15-Sep-10 02-Oct-14 15-Sep-10 02-Oct-17 14-Jun-11 01-Oct-18 06-Aug-07 06-Aug-14 14-Jul-09 14-Jul-12
Bidvest
BID01 BID02
Capitec
CBL033 CBL063 CBL083 CBL11
18-May-09 18-May-12 02-Nov-09 02-Nov-14 02-Nov-09 02-Nov-16 06-May-11 06-May-16 27-Feb-07 27-Feb-12 09-May-07 09-May-12 29-Mar-07 29-Mar-14 28-Sep-10 28-Sep-17 15-Jun-09 15-Jun-12 24-Nov-09 24-Nov-11 12-Mar-10 12-Mar-15 15-Mar-11 15-Mar-14 15-Mar-11 15-Mar-16 15-Mar-11 15-Mar-18 21-Apr-11 21-Apr-14 17-Jun-00 31-Mar-12 30-Mar-07 31-Mar-12 14-Dec-07 31-Mar-13 30-Apr-08 30-Apr-18 22-Jun-10 22-Jun-15 12-Sep-05 12-Sep-12 15-Dec-06 15-Dec-14 25-Apr-06 15-Sep-15 13-Jul-06 13-Jul-10 13-Jul-10 13-Jul-14 13-Jul-15 13-Jul-17
Group Five Imperial Capital Imperial Group
GFC2 IC02 IPL4 IPL6
Investec
IBL013 IBL07 IBL11

3
IBL203 IBL21
3
IBL223 IBL233 IV01

1
IV031 IV041 IV084 IV0141 Liberty Metropolitan Momentum MTN LGL11 MET011 MGL01 MTN02 MTN03 MTN04 MTN05 Nedbank NED6
1 1
28-Oct-10 28-Oct-13 20-Sep-06 20-Sep-13 08-Feb-07 08-Feb-12 08-Feb-07 08-Feb-14 17-Sep-07 17-Sep-15 14-Dec-07 14-Dec-12 13-Oct-06 13-Oct-11 15-Aug-06 15-Aug-13 15-Aug-06 15-Aug-16 11-May-07 15-Sep-17
NED71 NED8
1
NED111 NED12B PSG Sanlam PSG01 SLI1

1 1
A+/AA A A+ A+ A+
SLI21 Santam SNT011
24 Credit Research

Spread to benchmark (bps) Bond code Summary Issue size Coupon (%) Issue date rating (Rbn) Maturity date Govi BenchAt issue mark 1-month change Asset swap spreads (bps) 29-Jul 1-month change Liquidity No of trades Nominal traded (Rm)
Issuer A (continued) Sappi
29-Jul
SMF1 SMF2 SMF3 SSA01
A A A A
8
1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.25 1.06 1.16
9.34 10.64 12.13 9.63 10.49 10.16 12.45 11.90
27-Jun-06 25-Sep-07 30-Jun-09 28-Jun-11 21-Nov-07 10-Sep-10 29-Apr-08 29-Apr-08
27-Jun-13 14-Oct-11 30-Jun-12 28-Jun-16 21-Nov-12 10-Sep-17 29-Apr-12 29-Apr-15
R201 R155 R206 R203 R201 R203 R155 R157
105 150 365 150 215
210 152 30 150 90 239
0 0 -95 0 0 0 0 0
277 137 119 200 188 261 96 240
12 -17 -105 11 5 8 -5 19
17 4 38 0 20 0 0 10
1.50 0.12 161.79 0.00 38.96 0.00 0.00 0.19
Steinhoff
UTR02
AAA+ A+
UTR408 Telkom TL12 TL15 BBB Eqstra Corp INCA EQS02 IN04 IN07 INJ01 Omnia Group OMN01
230 250
130 200
BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+
0.05 0.65 0.35 0.10 0.41
12.92 8.90 9.00 10.96 12.12
01-Jul-10 15-Mar-05 16-May-07 21-Sep-04 28-Nov-08
01-Jul-15 15-Mar-15 16-May-13 21-Sep-11 28-Nov-11
R157 R157 R201 R155 R206
486 145 220 -
486 376 300 201 145
0 0 0 0 0
512 389 368 188 260
20 19 12 -18 -18
0 0 2 0 0
0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00
Sources: Standard Bank Research; JSE; Bloomberg
25 Credit Research
Floating-rate notes per rating band

Coupon (spread over Jibar) Issuer Bond code Summary rating Issue size (Rbn) Issue date Maturity/call date At issue
AAA
DBSA DVF12 ABFN053 ABFN063 ABFN073 ABFN083 ABFN093 AB081 BMW FirstRand BMWF02 BMWF03 FRB061 FRB071 FRB081 FRB091 FRBC224 FRJ133 FRJ143 FRJ163 FRJ183 Land Bank Mercedes-Benz LBK01 MBF04 MBF16 MBF017 MBF018 MBF019 MBF024 MBF025 MBP011 MBP012 MBP013 Nedbank NBK1B3 NBK2B3 NBK5B3 NBK6B3 NBK7B3 NBK8B3 NBK9B3 NBK10B3 Standard Bank SBK101 SBK131 SBS143 SBS153 SBS183 Toyota TFS73 TFS77 TFS78 TFS83 AAA 2.21 13-Oct-09 13-Oct-12 110 bps
AA
Absa AA+ AA+ AA+ AA+ AA+ AA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA-/AA+ AA-/AA+ AA-/AA+ AA-/AA+ AA-/AA+ AA-/AA+ AA-/AA+ AA-/AA+ AAAAAA AA AA AA+ AA+ AA+ AA+ 0.526 1.35 0.20 1.00 0.10 0.40 0.90 0.60 1.00 0.30 0.10 0.10 0.44 1.604 1.63 1.28 0.117 1.20 0.165 0.161 1.10 0.625 0.275 1.00 1.00 0.426 0.17 0.15 1.69 0.25 1.55 1.03 0.08 0.84 0.68 0.50 0.30 1.15 0.50 1.475 1.375 0.13 0.20 0.225 0.26 17-Mar-11 17-Mar-11 17-Mar-11 17-Mar-11 17-Mar-11 03-May-10 15-Jun-10 15-Jun-10 05-Nov-07 05-Dec-07 10-Dec-07 10-Dec-07 21-Jun-08 01-Sep-10 20-Jul-09 21-Dec-09 21-Feb-11 25-Oct-10 22-Aug-08 06-Oct-09 15-Apr-10 15-Apr-10 15-Apr-10 26-May-11 26-May-11 29-Jan-10 29-Jan-10 29-Jan-10 09-Sep-09 09-Sep-09 19-Apr-10 19-Apr-10 19-Apr-10 23-Mar-11 23-Mar-11 21-Apr-11 19-Nov-08 24-Nov-09 07-Feb-11 26-Apr-11 23-Jun-11 07-Feb-11 13-Apr-11 18-Apr-11 28-Jul-11 17-Mar-14 17-Mar-16 17-Mar-18 17-Mar-20 17-Mar-26 03-May-17 (Call) 15-Jun-12 15-Jun-13 05-Nov-12 06-Dec-12 10-Jun-16 10-Jun-17 21-Dec-18 (Call) 01-Sep-13 20-Jul-14 21-Jan-16 21-Feb-18 25-Oct-13 22-Aug-11 06-Oct-11 15-Apr-12 15-Apr-13 15-Apr-14 26-May-13 26-May-14 30-Jan-12 30-Jan-13 30-Jan-14 09-Sep-12 15-Sep-15 19-Apr-13 19-Apr-15 19-Apr-20 24-Mar-14 23-Mar-16 21-Apr-14 19-Nov-12 24-Nov-16 07-Feb-14 26-Apr-16 23-Jun-21 11-Feb-13 12-Apr-13 18-Apr-13 28-Jul-15 103 bps 125 bps 145 bps 175 bps 195 bps 210 bps 138 bps 145 bps 65 bps 65 bps 70 bps 70 bps 300 bps 125 bps 220 bps 175 bps 149 bps 160 bps 100 bps 190 bps 152 bps 165 bps 175 bps 80 bps 98 bps 180 bps 190 bps 200 bps 150 bps 220 bps 148 bps 175 bps 215 bps 105 bps 125 bps 100 bps 67.5 bps 220 bps 105 bps 125 bps 175 bps 70 bps 75 bps 75 bps 85 bps
A
African Bank ABL8B3 ABL93 ABL10B3 ABL11B3 ABL12B3 ABLS11 ABLS2B1 ABLS31 Anglo American SA Finance Barloworld AA02 BAW3 BAW4 BAW6 A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A A A+ A+ A+ A+ 0.44 0.52 0.50 0.475 1.00 0.30 0.48 0.515 0.20 0.33 0.23 0.20 19-Sep-08 19-Feb-09 15-Mar-10 29-Sep-10 08-Mar-11 08-Aug-07 13-Jul-09 31-Mar-11 28-Mar-08 15-Sep-10 15-Sep-10 15-Sep-10 19-Sep-13 19-Feb-12 15-Mar-15 29-Sep-14 08-Mar-15 08-Oct-12 13-Jul-16 31-Mar-18 28-Mar-16 02-Oct-17 15-Sep-13 02-Oct-14 300 bps 330 bps 315 bps 250 bps 240 bps 160 bps 630 bps 400 bps 50 bps 260 bps 170 bps 185 bps
26 Credit Research
Floating-rate notes per rating band (continued)

Coupon (spread over Jibar) Issuer Bond code Summary rating Issue size (Rbn) Issue date Maturity date At issue
A (continued)
Barloworld BAW9 BAW10 Basil Read (Pty) Ltd BSR04 BSR05 Bidvest Capitec BID03 CBL043 CBL053 CBL093 CBL103 Growthpoint Properties Ltd. GRT01 GRT02 GRT03 Imperial Bank Imperial Group Investec IPB3 IPL5 IBL033 IBL053 IBL063 IBL093 IBL123 IBL133 IBL143 IBL153 IBL183 IBL193 IBL243 IV071 IV094 IV0121 IV0131 IV0151 Nedbank NED91 NED101 NED12A1 Netcare NET31 NTC07 NTC08 NTC09 NTC10 NTC11 Phaello Finance Company Real People Investments Resilient Property Income Fund Steinhoff PCF03 RPG0110 RESB01 UTR041 UTR042 UTR043 A+ A+ AAA+ A A A A A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A/AAA/AAA/AAA/AAA/AAA+/AA A+/AA A+/AA A A A A A A AA AAAA0.16 0.614 0.125 0.15 0.25 0.185 0.70 0.15 0.45 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.30 0.50 1.65 0.16 0.12 0.611 0.17 0.524 0.95 1.17 0.783 1.24 0.12 0.94 0.20 0.25 0.05 1.35 2.00 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.15 0.20 0.195 0.205 0.785 0.20 0.40 0.23 0.15 0.15 0.20 04-Feb-11 14-Jun-11 20-Dec-10 30-Jun-11 14-Jul-09 18-May-09 02-Nov-09 29-Jan-10 06-May-11 08-Dec-10 13-May-11 13-Jul-11 04-Dec-08 28-Sep-10 15-Jun-09 12-Aug-09 29-Sep-09 08-Dec-09 12-Mar-10 12-Mar-10 28-Jun-10 28-Jun-10 09-Dec-10 15-Mar-11 21-Apr-11 28-Feb-08 30-Apr-08 26-Nov-09 22-Jun-10 20-Sep-10 06-July-07 15-Aug-07 14-Dec-07 28-Apr-10 01-Mar-10 13-Jul-10 14-Apr-11 14-Apr-11 14-Apr-11 20-Jan-10 24-Feb-11 03-Jun-11 19-Apr-11 19-Apr-11 19-Apr-11 04-Feb-14 01-Oct-16 20-Jun-12 01-Jul-13 14-Jul-12 18-May-12 02-Nov-12 29-Jan-17 06-May-14 08-Dec-14 13-May-16 15-Oct-15 04-Dec-13 (Call) 28-Sep-15 15-Jun-12 12-Aug-12 (Call) 14-Dec-12 08-Dec-12 12-Mar-13 12-Mar-15 28-Jun-15 28-Jun-13 10-Dec-13 15-Mar-14 21-Apr-14 31-Mar-13 30-Apr-18 (Call) 26-Nov-14 22-Jun-15 (Call) 20-Sep-17 (Call) 06-July-17 15-Aug-12 14-Dec-12 30-Apr-12 01-Mar-12 13-Jul-12 18-Apr-13 18-Apr-14 18-Apr-14 06-Apr-15 28-Feb-14 03-Jun-14 19-Apr-14 19-Apr-16 06-Apr-15 155 bps 155 bps 235 bps 197 bps 290 bps 415 bps 370 bps 510 bps 220 bps 156 bps 134 bps 145 bps 250 bps 198 bps 200 bps 215 bps 170 bps 150 bps 155 bps 200 bps 175 bps 146 bps 105 bps 125 bps 110 bps 140 bps 375 bps 325 bps 275 bps 265 bps 47 bps 45 bps 70 bps 195 bps 250 bps 200 bps 134 bps 153 bps 135 bps 300 bps 270 bps 145 bps 175 bps 225 bps 225 bps
BBB
Eqstra Corp INCA Real People Investments EQS04 INJ02 RP001 RP002 RCS Investment Holdings RCSB01 RCSB02 RCSB03 BBB+ BBB+ BBBBBBBBB+ BBB+ BBB+ 0.360 0.160 0.05 0.13 0.191 0.20 0.30 22-Sep-10 30-Apr-10 24-Feb-11 24-Feb-11 16-Mar-10 12-Jul-11 12-Jul-11 22-Sep-15 30-Apr-15 28-Feb-13 28-Feb-13 16-Mar-14 15-Jul-13 15-Jul-16 500 bps 635 bps 410 bps 475 bps 475 bps 203 bps 370 bps
27 Credit Research
Inflation-linked notes per rating band

Yield Issuer Bond code Summary rating Issue size (Rbn) Issue date Maturity date Benchmark At issue 29-Jul Coupon (spread over benchmark) At issue 29-Jul
AAA
Eskom SA Roads TCTA EL155 HWAY235 WS055 AAA AAA AAA 5.00 0.816 3.53 29-Jun-09 08-Mar-10 20-Nov-01 29-Jun-15 07-Dec-23 01-Aug-18 R197 R189 3.00 3.62 5.00 1.80 2.75 2.10 34 22 22
AA
Absa ABCPI11 ABCPI21 ABCPI31 ABSI13 ABSI23 ABSI33 ABSI43 ACSA AIRL01 AIRL02 FirstRand Nedbank SA Roads FRI153 NBKI13 NRA013 NRA023 Standard Bank SBKI11
1
AA/AA+ AA/AA+ AA/AA+ AA+/AAA AA+/AAA AA+/AAA AA+/AAA AAAAAA AA-/AA+ AA AA AAAA AA AA
1.08 3.00 0.845 1.30 1.00 0.23 0.10 1.19 1.00 0.006 1.75 1.55 0.895 1.80 3.00 2.15 1.00
01-Apr-08 20-Mar-09 10-Dec-09 11-Jun-09 28-Jan-10 17-Mar-11 17-Mar-11 30-Apr-08 18-Feb-09 14-Mar-08 09-Sep-09 15-Jul-08 22-Sep-08 09-Apr-09 03-Jul-09 03-Mar-10 22-Sep-10
31-Mar-13 20-Sep-14 07-Dec-28 11-Jun-14 07-Dec-23 31-Jan-17 31-Jan-22 30-Apr-28 18-Feb-14 14-Mar-15 31-Mar-13 31-Oct-13 31-May-23 10-Apr-14 03-Jul-13 07-Dec-23 31-Jan-17
R189 R189 R197 R189 R197 R211 R212 R202 R189 R189
6.25 6.00 5.50 4.00 5.50 2.50 2.75 3.64 5.50 3.00 3.90
2.01 2.75 3.28 2.80 3.53 2.53 3.05 3.56 2.85 2.15 3.00 2.08 2.98 2.25 3.85 3.03 2.58
155 195 155 180 100 65 212 110 200 101
100 175 75 180 100 65 50 99 185 115
R189 R197 R189
4.25 5.00 5.75 4.00
210 110 340
108 45 125
SBSI103 SBSI113 SBSI123
R197 R211
5.50 2.50
100 90
50 70
A
African Bank ABLI013 ABLI023 ABLI033 A+ A+ A+ 0.15 2.02 0.75 24-Apr-08 08-May-09 15-Mar-10 31-Mar-13 08-May-14 15-Mar-15 R189 R189 R197 6.25 8.00 5.14 3.71 4.10 4.38 270 585 270 270 310 185
BBB
Eqstra Corporation EQS01 BBB+ 0.27 18-Nov-09 18-Nov-14 7.00 7.00
Sources: Standard Bank Research; JSE; Bloomberg Notes: 1. Subordinated callable Tier 2 Capital 2. Subordinated callable Tier 3 Capital 3. Senior bank debt 4. Upper Tier 2 Perpetual Hybrid 5. Explicit government guarantee
6. 7.
Represents a foreign listing on JS Asset swap spreads and interpolated spreads for bonds maturing within six months should be viewed within the context of a money market instrument. 8. UTR02 and UTR40 (privately placed) issued by Steinhoff under Unitranss DMTN programme 9. The AB09 is privately placed and has no government benchmark 10. RPG01 note partially guaranteed by FirstRand Bank Limited
28 Credit Research
Sub investment-grade and unrated issuance SA corporates

Issuer Calgro M3 Development (Pty) Ltd Calgro M3 Development (Pty) Ltd Calgro M3 Development (Pty) Ltd Brandcorp (Pty) Ltd Brandcorp (Pty) Ltd DRD Gold SA (Pty) Ltd Edcon Amount Amount outstanding issued (Rbn) (Rbn) 0.005 0.005 0.02 0.02 0.38 0.38 0.03 1.01 0.02 0.02 0.38 0.38 0.03 1.01 Issue date 16-Feb-11 22-Jul-11 22-Jul-11 17-Sep-10 17-Sep-10 01-Oct-10 30-Mar-11 Maturity date 18-Feb-13 22-Jul-14 22-Jul-15 30-Sep-14 30-Sep-15 01-Oct-12 04-Apr-16 Call date Type Floating Floating Floating Floating Floating Floating Floating Coupon (%) 12.075 13.58 15.58 11.06 11.31 11.03 11.83 Spread at issue 3M Jibar + 650 bps 3M Jibar + 800 bps 3M Jibar + 1,000 bps 3M Jibar + 500 bps 3M Jibar + 525 bps 3M Jibar + 500 bps 3M Jibar + 625 bps Rating Unrated Unrated Unrated Unrated Unrated Unrated B
International bonds SA corporates

Issuer Absa Bank African Bank Anglo American plc Anglo American plc Anglo American plc Anglo American plc Anglo American plc Anglo American plc Anglo American plc Anglo American plc Anglo American plc Anglo American plc Anglo American plc Anglo American plc AngloGold Holdings plc AngloGold Holdings plc Aquarius Platinum Cell C Consol Glass Edcon Edcon Edcon Edcon Eskom Eskom FirstRand FirstRand FirstRand FirstRand Foodcorp Gold Fields Imperial Investec Bank Investec Bank Investec Bank Investec Bank Investec Bank Investec Bank Investec Bank Investec Bank Investec Bank Amount issued (m) 600 $35 750 750 1,000 1,000 400 $100 $50 $750 $1,700 $500 $1,250 $750 $700 $300 $300 400 420 630 1,180 317 $250 $1,750 500 $350 500 30.5 $26.2 310 $1,000 300 1.2 200 0.75 10 5 500 $2.4 $10 $15.2 Amount outstanding (m) 554 $35 750 750 1,000 1,000 400 $100 $50 $750 $1,700 $500 $1,250 $750 $700 $300 $300 186.4 372.5 378 1,045 317 $250 $1,750 500 $350 500 30.5 $26.2 272.9 $1,000 300 1.2 200 0.75 10 5 500 $2.4 $10 $15.2 Issue date 03-Jul-07 25-Oct-10 22-Sep-09 24-Nov-09 09-Apr-08 16-Nov-07 23-Apr-08 31-Mar-10 02-Sep-10 20-Sep-10 16-Apr-09 20-Sep-10 02-Apr-09 02-Apr-09 21-Apr-10 21-Apr-10 24-Nov-09 29-Jun-05 27-Mar-07 08-Jun-07 08-Jun-07 22-Feb-11 22-Feb-11 19-Jan-11 28-Feb-06 02-Jun-11 13-Jun-07 22-Mar-11 15-Feb-11 23-May-07 07-Oct-10 07-Apr-06 01-Dec-10 11-Jun-09 01-Dec-10 11-Mar-11 23-Sep-10 11-Feb-11 01-Dec-10 09-Mar-11 02-Aug-10 Maturity date 16-Jul-12 25-Oct-13 30-Sep-13 02-Dec-16 17-Apr-15 04-Dec-12 01-May-18 10-Apr-12 10-Sep-12 27-Sep-13 07-May-14 27-Sep-20 08-Apr-14 08-Apr-19 15-Apr-20 15-Apr-40 18-Dec-15 01-Jul-12 15-Apr-14 15-Jun-15 15-Jun-14 01-Mar-18 01-Mar-18 26-Jan-21 07-Mar-13 09-Jun-16 20-Jun-12 29-Mar-21 28-Feb-18 15-Jun-12 07-Oct-20 19-Apr-13 01-Dec-12 09-Apr-12 01-Dec-12 11-Mar-13 24-Mar-14 17-Feb-22 01-Dec-12 11-Mar-13 01-Aug-13 Call date Type Floating Floating Fixed Fixed Fixed Floating Fixed Floating Floating Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Floating Floating Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Floating Floating Zero coupon Fixed Fixed Fixed Floating Floating Floating Floating Floating Fixed Floating Floating Zero coupon Coupon Euribor +37.5 bps US Libor + 275 bps 4.25% 4.375% 5.875% JP Libor + 30 bps 6.875% US Libor + 92 bps US Libor + 100 bps 2.15% 4% 4.45% 9.375% 9.375% 5.375% 6.5% 4% 8.625% 7.625% Euribor + 550 bps Euribor + 325 bps 9.50% 9.50% 5.75% 4% 4.375% Euribor + 45 bps GB Libor Flat 8.875% 4.875% 4.75% Euribor + 50 bps GB Libor + 55 bps GB Libor + 50 bps GB Libor + 75 bps GB Libor + 50 bps 9.625% US Libor +50 bps US Libor + 75 bps Spread at issue OBL + 225.4 bps DBR + 174 bps DBR + 211.4 bps UKT + 220 bps UST + 145 bps UST + 175 bps UST + 763.2 bps UST + 661.6 bps UST + 165 bps UST + 200 bps DBR + 587 bps DBR + 672 bps UST + 660 bps UST + 250 bps DBR + 64.9 bps UST + 287.1 bps DBR + 598 bps UST + 245 bps UKT + 539.3 bps A N/A BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB-/Baa3 BBB-/Baa3 N/A B BB-/B1 CCC/Caa1 B/B2 B/B2 B/B2(e) BBB+/Baa2 BBB+/Baa2 N/A BBB+/A2 N/A N/A B-/B2 BBBBaa3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rating
25-Aug-11 15-Sep-11 25-Aug-11 01-Mar-14 01-Mar-14
29 Credit Research
International bonds SA corporates (continued)

Issuer Investec Bank Investec Tier 1 Investec Finance Investec Finance Mondi Finance Naspers (Myriad Int Holding BV) New Reclamation Group Old Mutual plc Old Mutual plc Old Mutual plc Old Mutual plc Old Mutual plc Old Mutual Capital Funding Peermont SABMiller SABMiller SABMiller SABMiller SABMiller SABMiller Sappi Sappi Sappi Sappi Sappi Sappi Savcio Standard Bank of SA Steinhoff Steinhoff Transnet Amount issued (m) $10 200 200 350 500 $700 253 750 500 350 500 $50 $750 520 1,000 S150 $550 $850 $700 $300 250 $350 350 $300 $500 $250 125 $500 467.5 390 $750 Amount outstanding (m) $10 200 33.8 17.9 500 $700 149.5 750 500 350 500 $50 $750 416 1,000 S150 $550 $850 $700 $300 250 $350 350 $300 $350 $221 70.8 $423 467.5 390 $750 Issue date 12-Oct-10 15-Jun-06 17-Feb-04 16-Jan-07 26-Mar-10 22-Jul-10 17-Jan-06 10-Jan-07 26-Oct-05 15-Mar-05 12-Oct-09 17-Sep-04 12-May-03 18-Apr-07 10-Jul-09 19-Mar-10 10-Jul-08 27-Jun-06 10-Jul-08 06-Aug-03 05-Apr-11 05-Apr-11 24-Jul-09 24-Jul-09 05-Jun-02 05-Jun-02 07-Feb-06 23-Jul-07 10-Mar-11 15-Sep-10 03-Feb-11 Maturity date 10-Oct-13 N/A 01-Mar-16 N/A 03-Apr-17 28-Jul-17 01-Feb-13 18-Jan-17 N/A N/A 19-Oct-16 20-Sep-11 N/A 30-Apr-14 20-Jan-15 19-Mar-15 15-Jan-14 01-Jul-16 15-Jul-18 15-Aug-33 15-Apr-18 15-Apr-21 01-Aug-14 01-Aug-14 15-Jun-12 15-Jun-32 15-Feb-13 30-Jul-12 31-Mar-18 22-May-16 10-Feb-16 Call date 24-Jun-15 07-Sep-11 18-Jan-12 04-Nov-15 24-Mar-20 22-Sep-11 30-Apr-12 15-Apr-15 15-Apr-16 01-Aug-12 01-Aug-12 07-Sep-11 Type Zero coupon Fixed Variable Variable Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Floating Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Floating Convertible Convertible Fixed Coupon 7.075% 6.482% 6.25% 5.75% 6.375% 8.125% 4.5% 5% 6.376% 7.125% US Libor + 50 bps 8% 7.75% 4.5% 6.75% 5.7% 6.5% 6.5% 6.625% 6.625% 6.625% 11.75% 12% 6.75% 7.5% 8% US Libor + 45 bps 4.5% 5% 4.5% Spread at issue DBR + 388.5 bps UKT + 300 bps UKT + 148 bps DBR + 326.6 bps UST + 400.3 bps DBR + 504 bps DBR + 64.6 bps DBR + 174 bps UKT + 150 bps UKT + 446.2 bps DBR + 361 bps DBR + 205.5 bps UST + 265 bps UST + 133 bps UST + 270 bps UST + 143 bps DBR + 358 bps UST + 319 bps UST + 175 bps UST + 195 bps DBR + 461 bps UST + 245 bps Rating N/A N/A Ba1/BBBBa2/BB+ Baa3/BB+ Baa3/BBBCCC+/Caa2 Baa3/BBBBaa3/BB+ Baa3/BB+ Baa1/BBB Baa1/BBB Baa3/BB+ B/B3 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBB+/Baa1 BBe/(P)Ba2 BBe/(P)Ba2 BB/Ba2 BB/Ba2 B/B2 B/B2 B+/B2 BBB+ N/A N/A BBB+(e)/A3
30 Credit Research
Appendix 1: SA corporate credit ratings

Rated South African Entity Republic of South Africa Moodys Global FC/LC debt A3 Stable Global ST P-2 Fitch LT FC debt BBB+ Stable ST FC debt F2 Other FC LT debt BBB+ Stable (S&P) FC ST debt A-2 (S&P) LC A / A-1 Stable (S&P) Absa Bank Ltd National Aa1.za/P-1.za Stable Global LC A1/P-1 Stable / FC A3/P-2 Stable BFSR C Stable African Bank Ltd National A1.za/P-1.za Stable Global Baa2/P-2 Stable African Development Bank Airports Company of SA Ltd Aaa/P-1 Stable, sub-debt: Aa1 AAA/F1+ Stable National LT AA-(zaf) National ST F1+(zaf) Stable Anglo American plc Global FC Baa1/P-2 Stable DMTN: A1.za/ P-1.za AngloGold Ashanti Ltd Global Baa3 Stable National LT A(zaf) Stable National ST F1(zaf) National LT A(zaf) Stable National ST F1(zaf) National A+(zaf)/F1(zaf) Stable Domestic medium-term note Programme A+(zaf) Basil Read LT LC A- RWN (GCR) ST LC A1- (GCR) LT FC A1 Stable National A1.za / P-1.za Stable Global FC A+ Stable / F1 National LT A+(zaf) Positive National ST F1(zaf) Global FC A+ / A-1 RWN (S&P) LT LC A+ Stable (GCR) ST LC A1 Stable (GCR) LT LC A- Stable (GCR) ST LC A1- Stable (GCR) BBB+/F2 Stable Global FC BBB+/ A-2 Stable (S&P) National: zaAA/zaA-1 (S&P) LT FC BBB- / LT LC BBB- Stable (S&P) National zaA/zaA-1 Stable Global FC AAA/ A-1+ Stable (S&P) National AAA(zaf)/F1+(zaf) Stable Global FC A/F1 Stable / LC A Stable LT LC A / ST LC A1 Stable (GCR)
Aveng Ltd
Barloworld Ltd
BHP Billiton Bidvest
Bidvest Bank
National A3.za / P-2.za Stable
BMW Finance N.V. Breede Valley Municipality Cape Winelands District Municipality Capitec Bank Limited Cell C (Pty) Ltd City of Cape Town City of JHB
Global FC (P)A2 / P-1 Stable National LT A3.za Stable National LT A3.za Stable National LT A2.za/P-1.za Positive Global FC Caa2 National Aa2.za / P-1.za Stable National LT Aa3.za Stable National AA-(zaf)/F1+(zaf) Stable Global LC LT BBB+ Stable LT LC BBB+ / ST LC A2 Positive (GCR) Global LT B- Positive (S&P)
City of Tshwane Colgate-Palmolive (Pty) Ltd Consol Glass (Pty) Ltd Daimler (Mercedes-Benz SA) (Global ratings for DaimlerAG)
Aa3.za / P-1.za Stable Global Aa3/P-1 Stable Global B1 Stable Global A3/P-2 Negative National Aa2.za /P-1.za Negative Global LT A-/F2 Stable National AA(zaf) National ST F1+ (zaf) Global AA-/F1+ Stable Global AA-/A-1+ Stable (S&P) Global LT B+ Stable (S&P) LT issuer BBB+ Positive (S&P) ST issuer A-2 Positive (S&P)
Sources: Standard Bank Research; Respective credit rating agencies
31 Credit Research
Appendix 1 (continued): SA corporate credit ratings

Rated South African Entity Denel (Pty) Ltd Moodys Fitch National LT AA(zaf) Negative National ST F1+(zaf) Global A3 Stable National LT AAA(zaf) Stable National ST F1+ (zaf) Global FC BBB+/A-2 Stable (S&P) Global LC A/A-1 Stable (S&P) Other
Development Bank of SA
Drakenstein, Municipality of Eagle Bonds One Prop. Ltd
National LT A3.za Stable Global LT Aaa National LT Aaa.za National A1.za Stable Global FC LT Caa1 Negative National LT Aa2.za/P-1.za zaBBB+/zaA-2 (S&P) Global FC Baa2 Stable Global LC Baa2 Stable National LT AAA(zaf) Stable National ST F1+(zaf) Global LC A Stable National zaAA/zaA-1 (S&P) Global LC LT BBB+ Stable (S&P) Global FC LT BBB+ Stable (S&P) Global LT B- Stable (S&P)
East Rand Water Care Company Edcon Holdings (Pty) Ltd Ekurhuleni Eqstra Corporation Ltd Eskom Holdings Ltd
Fedhealth domestic currency claims paying ability Finbond Group Ltd FirstRand Bank Ltd National Ba3.za/NP.za Stable National LT Aa2.za Stable National ST P-1.za Global (FC) A3/P-2, Global (LC) A2 Stable, C Stable Global FC LT B2 Stable National LT AA(zaf) Stable National ST F1+(zaf) Global BBB+/F2 Stable
AA- (GCR)
Global FC BBB+/A-2 Stable (S&P) Global LC BBB+/A-2 Stable (S&P) National zaAA/zaA-1 Stable (S&P) Global LT B- Stable (S&P)
Foodcorp (Pty) Ltd
Genbel Securities Ltd General Reinsurance Africa Ltd George Municipality Gold Fields Ltd National LT A2.za Global Baa3 (LC) Stable
National A+(zaf)/F1(zaf) Stable FSR AA+ Stable (S&P)
Global BBB-/A-3 Stable (S&P) National zaA/zaA-1 Stable (S&P)
Greater Tzaneen Municipality Grindrod Bank Ltd Group Five Construction Ltd
National LT Baa2.za Stable National Baa3.za/P-3.za Stable LT LC A Developing (GCR) ST LC A1 Developing (GCR) Global LC Baa3/P-3 Stable National A2.za/P-2.za Stable
Growthpoint Properties Ltd
Hannover Reinsurance Africa Ltd
FSR A Stable (S&P) Global LC LT A Stable (S&P) LT LC BBB Stable (GCR) ST LC A2 Stable (GCR) FSR BBB+
Harmony Gold Mining Limited
Home Finance Guarantors (Insurance) Ltd
32 Credit Research

Rated South African Entity Home Loan Guarantee Company Imperial Bank Ltd Moodys Fitch National FSR AA+(zaf) Stable National LT AA-(zaf) RWP National ST F1+(zaf) National A1.za/P-1.za Stable National A2.za/P-1.za Global Baa3 Stable Global FC LT Baa3 Stable Global A3 National LT Baa2.za Negative National ST P-2.za National Aa2.za/P-1.za Stable Global (LC)A2 Stable, (FC) A3/ P-2 BFSR C- Stable National LT Baa2.za Stable National LT Baa2.za Stable National LT AA(zaf) Stable National ST F1+(zaf) FSR AA(zaf) Stable National LT AA-(zaf) Stable; sub-debt A+(zaf) National zaAA+/zaA-1 (S&P) Global LC A-/A-2 (S&P) A+/A1 Stable (GCR) National Aa3.za Global Baa2/P-2 Stable National A3.za/P-2.za Review for possible downgrade National LT A+(zaf) Stable FSR AA(zaf) Stable National LT AA-(zaf) / sub-debt A (zaf) FSR AA(zaf) Stable National AA-(zaf) / sub-debt A(zaf) National A+(zaf)/F1(zaf) Stable Global FC BBB/F3 Stable National AA(zaf) / F1+(zaf) Stable Other
Imperial Capital Limited Imperial Group Ltd
Imperial Mobility Finance BV Industrial Development Corp Infrastructure Finance Corporation Ltd (INCA)
Investec Bank Ltd
Kagiso Trust Investments Knysna Municipality Land and Agricultural Development Bank
Liberty Group Ltd
Macquarie Securities South Africa (Pty) Ltd
Massmart Holdings Ltd Mauritius Commercial Bank
Mercantile Bank Ltd
Metropolitan Holdings Ltd Metropolitan Life Ltd
Momentum Group Ltd
Momentum Health domestic currency claims paying ability Mondi MTN Group Ltd Global Baa3/P-3 Positive National LT A2.za Positive Global LT Baa3 Positive National LT AA-(zaf) Stable National ST F1+(zaf)
A+ (GCR)
Global LT BB+ Positive (S&P) LT LC AA- Stable (GCR) ST LC A1+ Stable (GCR)
33 Credit Research

Rated South African Entity Munich Mauritius Reinsurance Ltd Munich Reinsurance Co. of Africa Ltd Mutual & Federal Insurance Co Ltd domestic currency claims paying ability Namibia Ports Authority (Pty) Ltd Namibia Power Corporation National A-(zaf)/F2(zaf) Positive National AA-(zaf)/F1+(zaf) Positive Global BBB-/F3 Positive Global FC BBB-/F3 (Stable) National LT A(zaf) Stable National ST F1(zaf) Nedbank Ltd National Aa2.za Stable National ST P-1.za Global FC A3/P-2 / LC A2/P-1 Stable C Stable National LT Aa3.za Stable National LT AA-(zaf) Stable National ST F1+(zaf) Global FC BBB/F2 Stable / LC BBB Stable Moodys Fitch Other Global LC LT A Stable (S&P) Global LC LT A Stable (S&P)
AA+ Stable (GCR)
Naspers Ltd
Nelson Mandela, Metropolitan Municipality Network Healthcare Holdings Ltd Netcare
A/A1 (GCR) (National scale) New Reclamation Group (Pty) Ltd Old Mutual Life Assurance SA Global FC LT Caa2 Negative IFSR A1 Stable FSR AAA(zaf) Stable Nat LT AAA(zaf) Stable / sub-debt AA(zaf) Old Mutual plc Global FC LT Baa1 Stable Global LC Baa1 / P-2 Stable Peermont Global (Pty) Ltd Phaello Finance Company (Pty) Ltd Pick n Pay Stores Ltd PSG Financial Services Rand Water AA+(zaf)/F1+(zaf) Stable Global FC LT B3 Stable National A-(zaf)/F2(zaf) Stable National A+(zaf)/F1(zaf) Negative National scale: A/A1- Stable (GCR) zaAAA (S&P) Global FC BBB+ Stable (S&P) Global LC A Stable (S&P) RCS Investment Holdings (Pty) Ltd Real People Investment Holdings (Pty) Ltd Redefine Properties Ltd National Baa1.za/P-2.za Stable National Baa3.za/P-3.za Negative Global Baa3/P-3 Stable National A3.za/P-2.za Stable Renaissance Merchant Bank Ltd Resilient Property Income Fund R500m DMTN programme RMB Financial Services Ltd FSR BBB IFS BBB Stable Global LC LT BB+ Stable (GCR) A-/A1- (GCR) Global LT B- Stable (S&P) IDR A-/F2 Stable Global LT CCC+ Negative (S&P)
34 Credit Research

Rated South African Entity RMB Structured Insurance Ltd FSR BBB National FSR A+(zaf) Stable Royal Bank of Scotland NV SA Branch SABMiller plc (national ratings for SABSA) National Aa2.za / P-1.za Stable National Aa3.za/P-1.za Stable Global Baa1/P-2 Stable BBB+/ F2 Stable National zaAA/zaA-1 (S&P) International BBB+/A-2 Stable (S&P) Moodys Fitch IFS BBB Stable National IFS A+(zaf) Other
Sanlam Life Insurance Ltd
FSR AA+(zaf) Stable National AA(zaf)/F1+(zaf) / subdebt A+(zaf) Stable National LT AA-(zaf) Stable
Sanlam Ltd
Sanlam Capital Markets Ltd
National A+(zaf) / F1(zaf) Stable
Sanlam Developing Markets
National LT AA(zaf) Stable National IFS AA+(zaf) Stable
Santam Ltd
FSR AA+(zaf) Stable National AA(zaf) Stable / subdebt A+(zaf) Ba3 Positive
AA- (sub-debt) (GCR) AAA (domestic currency claims paying ability) (GCR) Global FC BB-/ B Stable (S&P) Global LC BB-/ B Stable (S&P) Senior unsecured debt B
Sappi Limited
Sappi Southern Africa
National A(zaf)/F1(zaf) Stable Senior unsecured issue A(zaf) National Aa3.za/P-1.za Stable Global Baa1/P-2 Stable LT foreign issuer BBB+/A-2 Stable (S&P) Global LT B+ Credit Watch with developing implications (S&P) FSR A Positive (S&P) National Aa2.za/ P-1.za Stable Global A3 / P-2 BFSR: C Stable Global FC A3 / P-2 Stable Global LC A1 / P-1 National LT AA(zaf) Stable National ST F1+(zaf) Global FC BBB+ Stable / LC BBB+/F2 Stable National LT A-(zaf) Stable National ST F2(zaf) National LT BB+(zaf) Stable National ST B(zaf) A3.za Stable RSA guarantee existing bonds AA+(zaf)/F1+(zaf) Stable AA+(zaf)/F1+(zaf) Stable AA+(zaf)/F1+(zaf) Stable AA+(zaf)/F1+(zaf) Stable BBB/A-2 Positive (unsolicited) (S&P)
Sasol
Savcio Holdings (Pty) Ltd
Global FC LT B2 Stable
Scor Africa Ltd South African Roads Agency
Standard Bank of SA Ltd
Steinhoff International Holdings Ltd
Ba1 Stable
LT LC A- Stable (GCR) ST LC A2 Stable (GCR)
Super Group Ltd
Swartland Municipality TCTA TCTA Berg Water Project TCTA Vaal Rover Eastern Sub-System Augmentation Project TCTA Komati Water Scheme Augmentation Project TCTA Mooi-Mgeni Transfer Scheme Phase 2 Project
35 Credit Research

Rated South African Entity Telecom Namibia Moodys Fitch Global LC LT BBB- Stable National LT A(zaf) Positive Other
Telkom SA Ltd
Global Baa1 Review for possible downgrade National A1.za Review for possible downgrade Aa3 (Global) Review for possible downgrade R3bn DMTN RSA guarantee existing bonds AAA(zaf) Stable Global FC BBB-/F3 Stable Global LC BBB+/F2 Stable National LT AA-(zaf)/F1+(zaf) Stable Global senior unsecured A+ Stable Global ST F1 National LT A-(zaf) Stable National ST F1(zaf)
Global FC BBB Stable (S&P) Global LC BBB Stable (S&P)
Toyota Financial Services SA (Pty) Ltd
Global LC AA-/A-1+ Negative (S&P)
Transnet Ltd
Global FC A3/P-2 Stable Global LC A3/P-2 Stable Aa3.za/P-1.za (Unsecured DMTN)
LT FC BBB+ Stable (S&P) LT LC A- Stable (S&P) National zaAA+/ zaA-1 (S&P)
Unilever NV
Global A1/P-1 Stable
Intl LT foreign and local A+ / ST foreign and local A-1 Stable (S&P)
Unitrans
United Towers (Pty) Ltd Umgeni Water
National Aa3.za / P-1.za Stable National LT AA+(zaf) Stable National ST F1+(zaf) A+ /A1 (GCR) zaAA-/zaA-1 (S&P)
Vodacom Group Ltd
36 Credit Research
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39 Credit Research

Standard Bank Monthly Market Barometer - July 2011

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Standard Bank Monthly Market Barometer - July 2011

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Sources: Standard Bank Research; Annual reports

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Monthly Market Barometer July 2011

City of Johannesburg audit qualification reveals deeper problems Audit qualification

Statement of comprehensive income

FY:10 18,000 (1,756) -9.8% (2,941) 1,662 2.7x

FY:09 14,776 (2,654) -18.0% (3,424) 1,232 3.5x

% change 21.8% 33.9% 14.1% 35.0% -

Monthly Market Barometer July 2011

80.0% FY:07 FY:08 Collections rate

-7,100 FY:06 FY:07 FY:08 EBITDA (LHS)

-60% FY:09 EBITDA margin FY:10 FY:10a

Monthly Market Barometer July 2011

Operating expenses increased by 15.1%, to R20.9bn (FY:09 R18.2bn):

Statement of financial position and cash flows

Monthly Market Barometer July 2011

FY:06 Cash and cash equivalents

FY:08 Long term interest-bearing debt

Short term interest-bearing debt

Monthly Market Barometer July 2011

9 6-month return (%)

7 COJ04 FINDI30 4 COJ03 ALBI 2 FINI15 TOP40 COJ02 COJ05

30 12-month return (%)

Monthly Market Barometer July 2011

Credit issuance July 2011

Netcare African Bank Nitro Securitisation 4 Issuer Trust (Nitro 4)

5 August 11 August 11 August

Sources: Standard Bank Research: SOE issuance calendar; issuer announcements

Monthly Market Barometer July 2011

HWAY23 (2023) R300m NRA022 (2022,12.25%) NRA023 (2023) NRA028 (2028,12.25%)

RCS Investment Holdings (Pty) Ltd

RCSB02 (2013) RCSB03 (2016)

GRT03 (2015) ES23 (2023, 10%) ES26 (2026, 7.85%)

DV23 (2023, 10%)

Sources: Standard Bank Research; issuer announcements; JSE

Monthly Market Barometer July 2011

WS04 (2016, 15.5%) WSP2 (2017, 9%) WSP5 (2021, 9%)

Calgro M3 Development (Pty) Ltd

CGR7 (2014) CGR8 (2015)

TFS83 (2015) TFS84 (2016, 8.7%)

SBSi12 (2017) SBS19 (2021, 10.18%)

Blue Granite Investments No. 2

Sources: Standard Bank Research; Issuer announcements; JSE

Monthly Market Barometer July 2011

Growthpoint Prop- 28 July erties Ltd

Sources: Standard Bank Research; Issuer announcements; JSE

Monthly Market Barometer July 2011

Monthly spread movers July 2011

Credit spread movement -250 -95 -58 -20 -18 3 3 3 5 21

ASW movement -222 -105 -26 -10 1 8 14 15 8 0

Trading activity R20.0m R161.8m R254.3m R50.3m R422.7m R1.2m R53.3m

Figure 6: Credit spread movers (July)

Figure 7: Asset swap spread movers (July)

Credit spread movers

Interpolated spread movers

Credit spread movers

Asset sw ap spread movers

Monthly Market Barometer July 2011

Rating agency actions July 2011

BBB+/F2 BBB+/F2 BBB-/F3 BBB-/F3

Blue Granite Investments No. 2 (Pty) Ltd

Monthly Market Barometer July 2011

Rating agency actions July 2011 (continued)