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NDUON ELUH\OHULQ NODVLN WNHWLP NDOSODU JHOLUOHULQH J|UH oRN GDKD WDVDUUXI HWPH] \D GD G]JQGU %XQXQ VRQXFXQGD ELUH\OHU JHQoNHQ YH HPHNOL ROGXNODUQGD HGHPH]NHQ ERUo VWRNODUQ DUWWUPDN ]RUXQGD
XODU YH HPHNOLOLNOHUL\OH ELUOLNWH WHNUDU D]DODUDN \DWD\ ELU HNLOGH NDOU %XQD
LVH D]DODQ ELU JHOLUH VDKLSWLUOHU %LU EDND LIDGH\OH oDOPD KD\DWODUQQ
R\QDPDNWDGU %LUH\OHU \DDPODU VUHVLQFH |QFH DUWDQ EHOOL ELU \DWDQ VRQUD
WNHWLP LOH JHOLU YH YDUON DUDVQGDNL LOLNLGH \D oRN |QHPOL ELU URO
Borlar
WNHWLFLQLQ FDUL WNHWLP KDUFDPDODU JHOHFHN G|QHP JHOLUOHUL YH WDVDUUXIODUQQ %LUH\OHULQ JHOLUOHULQGHQ GDKD ID]OD KDUFDPD \DSDELOPHVL YH LVWHGLL
WNHWLFL VUHNOL RODUDN EWoH NVWQD PDUX] NDOPDNWDGU 'LHU ELU LIDGH\OH
DOWQGD
JHOLUOHULQH EDPO NDOPDGDQ EHOLUOH\HELOLUNHQ ED]ODU WDPDPHQ OLNLGLWH NVW \DDPDNWD YH WNHWLPOHULQL DQFDN EXJQN JHOLUOHULQH
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\]GH X FLYDUQGD ELU PLNWDUQQ SHLQ RODUDN |GHQPHVLQL DUW NRDFDNWU EXJQN JHOLU VHYL\HVL GN YH \HWHULQFH ELULNLPL
KDQHKDONQQ EHOLUOL ELU JHOLULQLQ ROPDVQ YH EXQD HN RODUDN DOQDFDN NRQXWXQ ROPD\DQ
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UHIDK G|QHPOHULQGH E\P NLLOHULQ WHUFLKOHULQLQ IDUNO RODFDN ROPDVGU NLQFL IDNW|U KDQHKDONQQ JHOHFHN G|QHP JHOLU
HNRQRPLN NUL] G|QHPOHULQGH \HWLPL ELU NHVLPLQ ERUoODQPD HLOLPOHUL LOH EHNOHQWLVLGLU
LoLQ NUHGL\H JHUHNVLQLP GX\DFD YH GDKD \ksek bir bor seviyesine sahip
VDKLS ELU HNRQRPLQLQ NRQXW WDW \D GD EH\D] H\D JLEL LKWL\DoODUQ JLGHUPHN
RODFDNODUGU
UHHO GHHULQGHNL D]DOWDQ |WU ROXPVX] RODUDN HWNLOHQHFHNOHUGLU +DUFDQDELOLU JHOLULQ ]DPDQ LoHULVLQGHNL
D]DOODUQGDQ ROXPOX HWNLOHQLUNHQ GDKD \DO RODQ KDQHKDON VHUYHWOHULQLQ GHLLPL WNHWLP
LOHULNL G|QHP JHOLU EHNOHQWLVL \NVHN RODQ JHQo KDQHKDONODU IDL] RUDQ
HWNLVL WHRULN DoGDQ EHOLUVL]GLU )DL] RUDQQGDNL D]DO WNHWLFL DoVQGDQ NUHGL
NRQXW RWRPRELO YH EH\D] H\D JLEL GD\DQNO WNHWLP PDOODUQD RODQ WDOHELQ ekonominin o anki durumuna gre dalgalanmalar gstermesi
WNHWLP PDOODUQD RODQ WDOHELQ ]DPDQ LoHULVLQGH LVWLNUDUO ELU HLOLP L]OHUNHQ
KDQHKDON EWoHVLQGH |QHPOL ELU \HU NDSO\RUVD JHOLUGHNL DUWQ GLHU WNHWLP
NDU\D ROPD\DQODUFD NXOODQOG |QHPOL ROPDNWDGU &RULFHOOL YH GLHUOHUL %X DoNODPDODU QGD X DDPDGD \DDP G|QJV KLSRWH]LQLQ
OLNLGLWH NVW DOWQGD RODQ NLLOHUFH YH QH NDGDUQQ E|\OH ELU NVW LOH NDU
etkili
=0
GHQNOHP LOH LIDGH HGLOHQ NVWD J|UH PPNQ ROPDNWDGU $ +1 = (1 + U +1 )( $ + \ F ); W = 1,...,
X (F + ); M = 0,1,..., Q; W = 1,...,
emek gelirini ve U LVH YDUONODUQQ JHWLUL RUDQQ WHPVLO HWPHNWHGLU %X GHHULQLQ GHQNOHP KHUKDQJL ELU G|QHPGH KDQHKDONQQ YDUONODUQQ \NPONOHULQLQ ELU G|QHP |QFHNL HPHN YH YDUON JHOLUOHULQGHQ
KDUFDPDODUQQ oNDUOPDV\OD XODODQ WDVDUUXIODUQQ NHQGLVLQH YH PHYFXW NL GHQNOHPLQ RSWLPDO zm bize (XOHU GHQNOHPLQL YHUHFHNWLU ( X (F +1 ) =
WNHWLP
(1 + U +1 )
RUDQODUQD YH EHNOHQWLOHULQH J|UH WNHWLP VHYL\HOHULQL \DDPODU ER\XQFD +HUKDQJL ELU G|QHPGH WNHWLFL ERUoODQDUDN \D GD WDVDUUXIODUQ
JHUL |GHQPHVL V|] NRQXVX ROGXX LoLQ ERUoODQPD LOH VDODQDQ HN KDUFDPD
WDPDPHQ GRUXVDO RODPD] gGQo DOQDQ IRQODUQ EHOOL ELU G|QHP VRQXQGD
6 = (1 + U ) ( ( \ + \ + 1 ); M = 0,1,..., ; W = 1,...,
=0
ROPD\DQ ELULQH J|UH GDKD K]O DUWDFDQ YH EXQGDQ GROD\ GD JHQo \DWD X DQD NDGDU J|VWHUGLLPL] PRGHO oRN EDVLWWLU YH DPSLULN oDOPDODU
ID]OD RODFDQ HLWLP VHYL\HVL \NVHN RODQ ELU NLLQLQ JHOLULQLQ NDOLIL\H
oHOLPHNWHGLU
DLOHQLQ GDKD D] WDVDUUXI \DSPDV RSWLPXP RODFDNWU NL EX DQD PRGHO LOH $QD PRGHO KDQHKDONQQ NUHGL SL\DVDODUQD HULHELOHFHLQL YH LVWHGLL NDSDVLWHOHUL RUDQQGD EDQNDODUGDQ ND\QDN WHPLQ
JHQo YH EHNDU ELU NLL\H J|UH GDKD ID]OD WNHWLP KDUFDPDV \DSDFD GD ELU
JHQo ELU NLL\H J|UH GDKD D] RODFDNWU $\UFD RUWD \DO YH oRFXNOX ELU DLOHQLQ
$WWDQDVLR\D J|UH \DO ELU NLLQLQ WNHWHFHL PDO PLNWDU YH NDOLWHVL
GHQNOHP GH \HU DODQ ID\GDQQ VDGHFH WNHWLPLQ ELU IRQNVL\RQX
JQP]GH VRV\DO JYHQOLN VLVWHPLQLQ \D\JQODPDV LOH EHUDEHU GDKD %D] KDQHKDONODUQQ NDU NDU\D NDODELOHFHL OLNLGLWH NVW WNHWLPLQ
ERUo
JLEL RODFDNWU
F (1 + U )$ + \ = [ ; W = 1,...,
1 ( + U +1 ) X (F ) = max X ([ ), ( X (F +1 ) 1 +
\DSW oDOPD LOH WHPHUUW RODVOQ \DDP G|QJV PRGHOLQH LODYH HGHUHN |QHPOL ELU NDWN JHWLUPLWLU %LUH\LQ PDUMLQDO ID\GDVQ PDNVLPXP VHYL\H\H oNDUWPDV LQVDQODUQ
KD\DWQGD ELULQFL YH LNLQFL G|QHP ROPDN ]HUH LNL G|QHP RODFD YDUVD\P
X (F1 , F2 ) = X (F1 )+
1 ( [X (F2 )] 1+
verebilmekte, yani istediklerinde daha fazla veya daha az tkHWLPGH EXOXQPD NLQFL G|QHP JHOLUL YH GROD\V\OD WNHWLP VHYL\HVL ELUH\LQ WHUFLKOHULQL
RODFDNWU %RUoOXQXQ < RODUDN LIDGH HGLOHQ GN LNLQFL Gnem gelire sahip ROPD RODVO LVH T RODFDNWU %WoH NVW DOWQGDNL ERUoOX EXJQN WNHWLP
LIDGH HGHQ \D YH LNLQFL G|QHP IDL] RUDQQD EDO ROGXX LoLQ EHOLUVL]
ROPD RODVO T, < olarak ifade edilen yksek ikinci dnem gelire sahip
) 3 $)9 S S2 3 $ S 37$$ '$ '2 2 $ S 27 !t7 T $7 )R!g ' 3$ 7 $)$)T
borlunun banka
GXUXPXQGD EDQNDODUQ VDGHFH JHOLULn < PLNWDU DDQ NVPQ WDOHS < NDGDU JHOLU HOGH HGHFHL YDUVD\OGQGD EDQNDODU YHUGLNOHUL NUHGLOHULQ NDUQ VIUD HLW ROGXX YH ULVN SULPLQLQ GH LODYH HGLOGLL GHQNOHP GDNL KHSVLQL WDKVLO HGHPH\HFHNOHUGLU %XQGDQ GROD\ GD EDQNDODU PWHULOHULQH
DUG HGLOGLL ELU VHUPD\H SL\DVDV YDUVD\OP YH U ULVNVL] IDL] RUDQQ LIDGH
1 + 5 = (1 + U )(1 + US)
NUHGL IDL] RUDQ ULVNVL] IDL] RUDQQD J|UH GDKD \NVHN RODFDNWU
HWPHNWHGLU 'HQNOHPGHQ GH J|UOG ]HUH WHPHUUW RODVO LOH ELUOLNWH /DZUDQFH PRGHOLQGH ERUoODQPDQQ VDGHFH WNHWLP DPDoO
056 =
X (F1 , F2 ) = X (<1 + F1 )+
1 [TX(< + F2 )+ (1 T)X(< + F2 )] 1+
RODFDNWU 7HPHUUW GXUXPXQGD EDQND JHOLULQ < \L DDQ NVP LOH \DWUPODUQ JHtirileri zerinde de hak iddia edecektir. %RUoOXQXQ GHQNOHP GHNL JLEL LIDGH HGLOHQ EHNOHQHQ ID\GDVQQ
LWLEDUHQ DUWN WHPHUUW RODVO VDGHFH JHOLUH GHLO QHW VHUYHWH GH EDO
YDUOQ ULVN VHYL\HVL LOH LOLNLOL RODFD LoLQ NUHGL\H X\JXODQDQ IDL] RUDQ LOH
F2 = (1 + 5 )F1
NL G|QHPOL ELU PRGHO YDUVD\P \DSOG LoLQ LNLQFL G|QHPGH PHYFXW \DSODQ \DWUPODUQ GHHUL , JHOLULQ WNHWLOPH\HQ NVPQ LIDGH HWWLL YH %LULQFL G|QHPGH \DSODQ \DWUPODUQ LNLQFL G|QHPGHNL UHHO SL\DVD GHHUOHUL ikinci dnem gelirine (< LODYH HGLOHFHNWLU %RUoOX \DWUPODUQQ
olan btn servet sz konusu dnemde tketilecektir. Birinci dnemde birinci dnemGH ELUH\H KLo ELU ID\GD VDODPDG LoLQ QHJDWLI LDUHWH VDKLSWLU
, \DWUPODUQ UHHO JHWLULOHULQH EDOGU .DU SD\ NLUD \D GD IDL] ND]DQoODU JHWLULVLQH
<, !F NLQFL GXUXPGD ERUlX LNLQFL GQHPGH KHP \NVHN ELU JHOLUH NROD\ ROPDNWDGU %LULQFL GXUXPGD LVH borlu, ERU YHUHQLQ LIODV NXUDOODUQ
YH
JHOLULQH
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X (F1 , F2 ) = X (<1 + ,1 + F1 )+
J|UH
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WUQQ YH ]DPDQ DUDOQQ IDUNO ROPDV JLEL QHGHQOHUOH DoNODQPDNWDGU VHYL\HVLQLQ PHVOHNL VWDWQQ YH GLHU VRV\RGHPRJUDILN
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T=
056 =
(1 + )X (<1 ,1 + F1 ) = 1+ 5 (1 T)X[(< + , ) + F2 ]
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(2002) cari gelir ile bor WDOHEL DUDVQGD QHJDWLI LOLNL EXOPXODUGU &DUL JHOLULQ
NRQXVX LOLNL\L WHUV 8 HNOLQGH EXOPXODUGU %HOOL ELU QRNWD\D NDGDU FDUL JHOLU
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EWQ ONHOHUGH EHOOL ELU \DD NDGDU WDOHELQ DUWW YH GDKD VRQUD D]DOG
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JHOHFHN G|QHP ND]DQoODUQQ DUWDFD EHNOHQWLVL LOH GDKD ID]OD NUHGL WDOHS
LKWLPDOLQL D]DOWDFDNWU %X GXUXP EX NLLOHULQ GDKD ID]OD NUHGL WDOHS HWPHOHULQL &URRN YH +RFKJXHUWHO \DSWNODU oDOPDGD HLWLP G]H\LQLQ
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ELU HLWLP G]H\LQH NDGDU NUHGL WDOHELQLQ DUWWQ VRQUD LVH D]DOGQ
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%RVQD +HUVHN LOH &URRN YH +RFKJXHQWHOLQ WDO\D LoLQ \DSW
WDOHS DUDVQGD SR]LWLI \|QO ELU LOLNL J|VWHUPLWLU $QFDN &KHQ YH &KLYDNXOXQ
GH DUDWUOPWU
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LVL]OHULQ NUHGL WDOHELQLQ JHOLHQ HNRQRPLOHUH J|UH GDKD ID]OD ROPDVQD \RO
N|WPVHU ROPDV GD NUHGL WDOHELQL D]DOWDQ |QHPOL ELU IDNW|U RODFDNWU %XQODUD
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oRN NUHGL WDOHS HWPHVLQH \RO DoDFDNWU 0DJUL $\Q HNLOGH L
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GXUXP HYOL NLLOHULQ WRSODP JHOLUOHULQLQ YH VHUYHWOHULQLQ EHNDU ELU NLL\H J|UH
HYOLOLN LOH NUHGL WDOHEL DUDVQGD SR]LWLI ELU LOLNL EXOXUNHQ &R[ YH -DSSHOOL
NUHGL GHQH\LPOHULQLQ GH ERUo HLOLPOHULQL DUWWUGQ WHVSLW HWPLOHUGLU %DQNDODUQ .UHGL $U]Q (WNLOH\HQ )DNW|UOHU
ELUH\VHO NUHGLOHULQ JHOLLPL ]HULQGHNL HWNLOHUL DoNODQPD\D oDOODFDNWU %LUH\VHO .UHGL $U]Q (WNLOH\HQ 0DNUR )DNW|UOHU 0DOL\HW )DNW|UOHUL
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(%)
0%
2004 Konut
2005
2006
2007
2008
GXUXPGD KHP ILQDQVDO KHP GH VRV\RHNRQRPLN IDNW|UOHU HWNLOL ROPDNWDGU Ancak, finansal faktrler bir sonraki blmde incelenecektir. IDNW|UOHULQ EDOFDODU LVH 9
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400
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