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Contents
Worldwide Mobile Market ........................................................................................................6
Subscriber Base................................................................................................................................... 6 Worldwide Subscriber Base Regional Contribution........................................................................... 7
List of Figures
Figure 1: Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Figure 5: Figure 6: Figure 7: Figure 8: Figure 9: Figure 10: Figure 11: Figure 12: Figure 13: Figure 14: Figure 15: Figure 16: Figure 17: Figure 18: Figure 19: Figure 20: Figure 21: Figure 22: Figure 23: Figure 24: Mobile Subscriber Base Worldwide (In Million, 2009 2015F) ........................................ 6 Worldwide Subscriber Base Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2010) ............................ 7 Worldwide Subscriber Base Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2015F) .......................... 8 Mobile Service Revenue Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2009 End 2015F) ............... 9 Revenues of Major Industries Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2008 & End 2009) ....... 10 Comparison of Mobile Services with Other Industries Y-o-Y Growth in Revenue (2009) .......................................................................................................................................... 10 Mobile Data Use per Subscriber per Month Regional (In MB, 2009 2014F) ............... 11 Mobile Broadband User Base Worldwide (In Million, 2009 2014F) ............................. 12 Mobile Applications User Base Worldwide (In Million, 2009 2015F)............................ 12 Mobile Application Downloads Worldwide (In Billion, 2009 2015F) ............................. 13 Mobile Payment Users and Penetration Worldwide (2009 2014F) .............................. 14 Mobile Payment Volumes Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2009 2014F)............................ 15 Technology Forecast Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 End 2015F) .......................... 17 Regional Break-out of LTE Deployments (In Percent, End 2015F) ................................... 18 Cumulative LTE Deployments Worldwide (End 2010 End 2015F) .............................. 19 Mobile Messaging Revenue Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 2015F) ........................ 20 Annual Messaging ARPU Worldwide (In USD, 2008 2015F) ...................................... 21 Worldwide Mobile Messaging Revenue Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2010)......... 21 SMS Traffic Worldwide (In Billion, 2008 2015F) .......................................................... 22 MMS Traffic Worldwide (In Billion, 2008 2015F) ......................................................... 23 Mobile Handset Shipments Worldwide (In Million, 2009 2015F) ................................. 24 Smartphone Shipments as a Percentage of Handset Shipments Worldwide (In Million, 2009 2015F) .................................................................................................................. 25 Mobile Equipment Spend Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 2015F)........................... 26 Market Share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors (Q2 2010) ................................................ 27
List of Tables
Table 1: Table 2: Mobile Subscribers Regional (In Million, 2009 2015F) .................................................. 7 Mobile Subscribers for 3G and Above Networks Regional (In Million, 2009 2015F) ... 17
8,000
5,787.1 5,254.6
6,262.5
6,675.1
7,037.9
7,351.5
2,000
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
The emerging markets of Asia Pacific and the Africa and Middle East (AME) region will lead the mobile subscriber base growth, while the advanced markets of North America and Western Europe will witness moderate growth.
Table 1:
Mobile Subscribers Regional (In Million, 2009 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million)
Region 2009 Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East Total 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
CAGR (In Percent, 2009 2015) 2.0 2.7 10.3 4.4 5.6 10.4 7.9
Worldwide Subscriber Base Regional Contribution Asia Pacifics subscribers constituted 48 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base in 2010, while the second largest contribution was Europe with 20.5 percent. The figure below depicts regional contribution to the worldwide mobile subscriber base in 2010.
48.0%
6.4%
10.2%
14.9% 20.5%
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Latin America
Between 2010-2015, the percentage contribution of the Asia Pacific and AME regions to the worldwide subscriber base is expected to increase at the expense of the remaining regions, which will see declines during the same period. Asia Pacific will continue to dominate the worldwide mobile market, and in 2015 over 52 percent of worldwide mobile subscribers will originate from this region. The percentage contribution of the AME region will rise from 14.9
1
Note: Sum of regional numbers may not equal total due to rounding off errors.
percent at end-2010 to 16.7 percent at end-2015. The percentage contributions of other regions are expected to decrease continuously over the same period. The increase in subscriber base share for the Asia Pacific and AME regions can be ascribed to the strong subscriber base growth in the emerging markets. The figure below depicts regional contribution to the worldwide mobile subscriber base in 2015.
52.2%
5.5% 9.3%
16.7% 16.2%
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Latin America
F Forecasted
Further recommended reading: Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile Messaging Futures 2011-2015
Note: The percentages do not add up to 100 percent because of rounding off errors.
Figure 4: Mobile Service Revenue Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2009 End 2015F)
2000
1600 1200 800 400 0 2009 2010 2011F 1,053.0 1,174.9 1,292.5
1,416.2
1,531.4
1,639.2
1,737.8
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
Year
F Forecasted
Note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in November 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook.
Revenue Comparison of Mobile and Other Major Industries The mobile market, in terms of revenue generated in 2009, has outperformed the Software and Services, Pharmaceuticals, IT Hardware and Semiconductor markets. Of these five markets, mobile services exhibited the highest growth in 20082009, followed by Software and Services. The IT hardware industry was the worst affected by the recessionary period.
Figure 5: Revenues of Major Industries Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2008 & End 2009)
1200
1,053.0 912.1 967.0 912.2 735.0 594.0 536.3 249.0 228.4 837.0
Mobile Services
Pharmaceuticals
IT Hardware
Semiconductor
Industry
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
Figure 6: Comparison of Mobile Services with Other Industries Y-o-Y Growth in Revenue (2009)
Semiconductors
-8.3%
IT Hardware
-9.7%
Pharmaceuticals
13.9%
-5.7%
23.1% 25%
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
10
2,083
2,000
1,500
1,252 1,015
1,000
662 631 415 158 19 96 42 272 173 82 276 140
500
19 31 53 9 3
127 72 39 21 8
308 167 82 47
346
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Latin America
F Forecasted
Mobile Broadband User Base The mobile broadband market is gaining momentum worldwide. The evolution of mobile networks has enabled high-speed data transfer and has made mobile broadband more attractive to subscribers. The worldwide user base for mobile broadband stood at 371.7 million at end-2009. With MNOs making huge investments to improve the quality and utility of services, the mobile broadband user base is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36.4 percent between 2009 and 2014 to reach nearly 1.8 billion by end-2014. Worldwide, the percentage
4
Note: The forecasts for mobile data traffic per subscriber per month have been made based on the total mobile subscriber base forecasts in the mentioned regions. 5 Note: 2010 figures shown here were originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in August 2010, and have not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook.
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of mobile subscribers using mobile broadband is expected to grow from 8.1 percent at end2009 to 27.8 percent by end-2014. The figure below depicts the mobile broadband user base from 2009 to 2014.
Figure 8: Mobile Broadband User Base Worldwide (In Million, 2009 2014F)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
371.7
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
Mobile Applications Mobile applications are rapidly changing the nature of the mobile industry, supporting the ongoing transformation of handsets from simple communication devices into gadgets with powerful information, entertainment and productivity features, as well as boosting the use of mobile data services. The figure below depicts the mobile applications user base from 2009 to 2015.
Figure 9: Mobile Applications User Base Worldwide (In Million, 2009 2015F)
300 255.9 250 200 150 100.4 100 50 0 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 38.7 69.1 136.3 174.9 213.9
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
6
Note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in June 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. This also applies to the accompanying service penetration text. 7 Note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in October 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook.
12
The increasing number of mobile application downloads reflects the growing uptake of mobile application services. The number of downloads is expected to increase at a CAGR of 53.2 percent in the period between 2009 and 2015, and this is depicted in the figure below.
Figure 10: Mobile Application Downloads Worldwide (In Billion, 2009 2015F)
40 35 29.6 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2.9 6.7 11.1 16.3 22.6
37.6
2015F
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
Emerging Mobile Applications Mobile Augmented Reality At present, the market for Mobile Augmented Reality (MAR) applications is relatively small due to the limited number of devices supporting the technology. MAR can contribute to enhancements and innovations in many mobile application categories, such as gaming, entertainment, location-based searches, education, social networking, retail, travel and tourism with mobile gaming and location-based search apps being the key categories. Currently, the market is dominated by small start-ups with developer teams who are driving innovation. In future, established players such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, RIM and (at publication) Nokia, who also have their own OS platforms and developer tools, will be strongly placed to dominate this space. Moreover, developments in areas such as real-time face recognition and visual searches are expected to make MAR even more attractive and useful to users. Owing to the large amount of utility that is expected to be derived from MAR, this technology is expected to spread across all industries.
8 Note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in October 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook.
13
Mobile Payments In light of falling voice ARPU, mobile operators around the world are focusing their efforts on stabilising ARPU by promoting mobile data services. Mobile payment services are also a part of MNOs promotional campaigns, and operators either on their own or in partnership with banks and mobile payment service providers are developing platforms and applications to offer mobile payment services. With such initiatives in place, the mobile payments segment has established itself in several advanced mobile markets worldwide and is now expanding its reach in emerging markets as well. Mobile Payment Users In 2010, there were 116 million mobile payment users worldwide; this number is forecast to reach nearly 490 million by the end of 2014. The figure below highlights the number of mobile payment users worldwide and their penetration within the worldwide mobile subscriber base between 2009 and 2014.
9
Figure 11: Mobile Payment Users and Penetration Worldwide (2009 2014F)
600 500
10 7.8 8 5.6 4.1 3.0 1.8 2.3 165.5 237.3 340.6 2 0 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 489.5 4 6
Year
Users (In Million) Mobile Payment Penetration (In Percent)
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
Market Size Mobile payment volumes were USD 108.3 billion in 2010 and are forecast to reach USD 633.4 billon by end-2014. The next figure depicts the growth of mobile payment volumes between 2009 and 2014.
Note: 2010 figures shown here were originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in March 2010, and have not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. Please also note that Portios worldwide mobile subscriber forecasts have since been recast, which may have some bearing on the forecasted service penetration levels.
14
Figure 12: Mobile Payment Volumes Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2009 2014F)
10
700
633.4
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 68.7 171.0 108.3 270.0 415.5
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
Further recommended reading: Mobile Applications Futures 2010-2015 LTE and the Road to 4G 2010-2015 Mobile Payments 2010-2014 Strategies for Driving Mobile Data and Broadband Adoption Mobile Augmented Reality
10 Note: The 2010 figure shown here was also originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in March 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook.
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Network Deployments
Introduction to advanced Network Technologies 3G, 3.5G, 4G 3G 3G is an International Telecommunication Union (ITU) specification for the third generation of mobile communication technology. 3G technologies are typically packet-switched and use Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology to communicate. Examples of 3G include 1xRTT, HDR and WCDMA.
3.5G 3.5G technologies are the evolution of 3G technologies to enable broadband speeds in mobile networks There are several protocols in the High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA) family, also coined 3.5G or 3G+, which allow networks based on Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) to have higher data transfer speeds and capacity HSPA refers to a family of broadband technologies HSDPA and HSUPA 4G
4G or fourth generation WWAN (Wireless Wide Area Network) communication systems are characterised by high-speed data rates at 20+ Mbps, suitable for highresolution movies and television Some competing technology standards for 4G technologies are mobile WiMAX, the GSM standards UMTS Long Term Evolution (LTE), and CDMA EV-DO Rev. C (also known as Ultra-Mobile Broadband or UMB)
WiMAX Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) refers to the 802.16e technologies which have evolved through several enhancements of the 802.11 technologies (used for providing Wi-Fi services) WiMAX enables high-order modulation, efficient coding, adaptive modulation and coding as well as Hybrid Automatic Repeat Request (HARQ), which is similar to the GSM technology HSPA (High-Speed Packet Access) Long-Term Evolution (LTE) LTE is the standard being developed by 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project) to achieve download rates of 100 Mbps, and upload rates of 50 Mbps for every 20MHz of spectrum and is termed as a 4G standard LTE will have support for bandwidths ranging from 1.25MHz to 20MHz 3G and above Subscribers MNOs are moving towards 3G and above networks to improve spectral efficiency and to provide better quality of service (QoS), especially for data services. 2009 saw wide-scale adoption of 3G and 3.5G networks, even in emerging markets, and developed markets are now keen to move to 4G networks to accommodate burgeoning data traffic. By end-2010, nearly 22.5 percent of the total subscriber base worldwide used services based on 3G and above networks.
16
The following figure provides the worldwide subscriber forecast for 3G and above services.
Figure 13: Technology Forecast Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 End 2015F)
8000
11
3,386.8
4,189.6
4,697.4
2000
3,876.3
4,072.7
3,943.6
3,669.9
3,288.3
2,848.3
2,654.1
Year
3G and above 2G and others
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
Table 2: Mobile Subscribers for 3G and Above Networks Regional (In Million, 2009 12 2015F) Mobile Subscribers for 3G and Above Networks (In Million) Region 2009 Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East Total 333.7 288.3 74.4 22.3 2010 468.5 411.0 124.6 58.3 2011F 640.8 720.7 174.0 103.4 2012F 796.1 1,109.0 220.1 158.2 2013F 920.7 1,556.9 261.6 219.3 2014F 1,036.1 2,019.2 301.4 280.6 2015F 1,085.6 2,388.6 316.4 302.2
60.9
119.5
204.7
309.2
428.2
552.3
604.6
779.5
1,181.9
1,843.5
2,592.6
3,386.8
4,189.6
4,697.4
11
Note: 2010 figures shown here were originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in November 2010, and have not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook. This also applies to the accompanying Table 2. 12 Note: Sum of regional numbers may not equal total due to rounding off errors.
17
LTE Deployments and Trials Mobile markets worldwide have witnessed a surge in the number of MNOs committing to LTE network deployment as a path for moving towards 4G services. With MNOs putting their weight behind LTE proliferation, a diverse and competitive ecosystem of devices and infrastructure products is expected to emerge. This shift of manufacturing ecosystem towards LTE will help in bringing down the cost of devices and of network deployments. Therefore, as LTE deployments gain momentum, the incentive for other MNOs for following suit also increases. According to the announcements made to end-June 2010, 158 LTE deployments (including on-going network deployments, trials and commitments of which two were in-service) are scheduled before end-2015. 13 The figure below forecasts a regional break-out of these 158 LTE deployments.
Figure 14: Regional Break-out of LTE Deployments (In Percent, End 2015F)
14
26.6%
10.1%
17.1%
36.7%
9.5%
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Latin America
The figure on the next page shows worldwide cumulative LTE deployments to 2015.
13 14
Source: http://www.3gamericas.org/documents/Global%20Status%20Update%20June%2014%202010.pdf Note: As the accompanying text explains, deployments here refers to the number of LTE networks expected to be in service by end-2015 based on data as of June 2010.
18
Figure 15: Cumulative LTE Deployments Worldwide (End 2010 End 2015F)
15
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 29 56 79 106 131
158
LTE Deployments
2015F
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
15
Note: Cumulative LTE deployments refer to the number of LTE networks expected to be in service by the end of the years mentioned in this figure. Cumulative LTE deployment forecasts till 2015 include all the deployments taking place before 2015. Also, the 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in August 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook
19
Figure 16: Mobile Messaging Revenue Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 2015F)
16
350 280 209.8 210 140 70 0 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 129.1 148.4 179.2 274.9 241.8
334.7 306.0
2014F
2015F
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
Annual Messaging ARPU In 2009, there was a drop in annual messaging ARPU. This was because of the worldwide economic downturn in which users had restricted their spending. However, the market recovered and annual messaging ARPU stood at USD 36.2 in 2010. This figure is expected to increase in the coming years and reach USD 46.5 by end-2015.
16
Note: This and other messaging data sets are taken from a report written in the fourth quarter of 2010. As such, quoted full year 2010 figures use data collected from the first three quarters of 2010 and estimations for the fourth then-unavailable quarter.
20
Figure 17: Annual Messaging ARPU Worldwide (In USD, 2008 2015F)
50
40 30 20 10 0
35.0
34.1
36.2
38.0
40.1
42.5
44.6
46.5
2008
2009
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
Messaging Revenues by Region Supported by the largest subscriber base, Asia Pacific is the leading market for mobile messaging, while Europe is the second biggest mobile messaging market worldwide in terms of 2010 revenue. North America placed third with a 23.4 percent share, AME was fourth, while Latin America made the least contribution to messaging revenue in 2010. The figure below highlights these regional contributions.
Figure 18: Worldwide Mobile Messaging Revenue Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2010)
17
37.0% 23.4%
30.7%
5.4%
3.6%
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Latin America
The ranks of regions in 2015, in terms of contributions to worldwide mobile messaging revenue, are expected to be the same as in 2010. Asia Pacific will still be the biggest market and will be followed by Europe and North America.
17
Note: The percentages do not add up to 100 percent because of rounding off errors.
21
Worldwide SMS and MMS Traffic Short Messaging Service, simply known as SMS, has established itself as the simplest, easiest and most economical means of personalised one-to-one communication with SMS volume growth statistics attesting to its popularity. With its widespread reach to virtually all mobile subscribers (Johns Phone users being one exception), SMS has long been the most popular messaging service and has helped MNOs significantly offset the effects of falling voice revenue. Over 6.9 trillion SMS were exchanged worldwide in 2010, and total SMS traffic is expected to reach more than 11.6 trillion by end-2015a CAGR of nearly 11 percent. The following figure shows worldwide SMS traffic from 2008-2015.
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
MMS, launched with the unrealistically high expectations that it would mirror the success of SMS and hampered by technical problems and over-pricing during its early years, has largely solved its teething issues and retains its status as the worlds second most popular messaging service. Around 249 billion MMS were generated in 2010, representing a y-o-y growth rate of more than 47 percent. This number is forecast to reach close to 592 billion by end-2015, after increasing at a CAGR of 18.9 percent during 2010-2015. The next figure shows worldwide MMS traffic during 2008-2015.
22
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
23
Figure 21: Mobile Handset Shipments Worldwide (In Million, 2009 2015F)
19
2,000 1,600 1,307.9 1,200 800 400 0 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 1,165.6 1,375.4 1,481.7 1,600.3 1,687.5
1,752.4
2015F
Year
18
19
Replacement rates: This is the frequency at which mobile subscribers substitute their old handsets with new ones. Higher replacement rates result in growth in demand. An average replacement rate of 50 percent means average replacement time for handsets is 2 years. Note: This and other handset/smartphone data sets are taken from a report written in the fourth quarter of 2010. As such, quoted full year 2010 figures use data collected from the first three quarters of 2010 and estimations for the fourth then-unavailable quarter.
24
Worldwide Smartphone Shipments Despite the worldwide economic slowdown, the smartphone market registered a modest growth rate of 16.4 percent during 2008-2009. In 2010, smartphone shipments grew at a very impressive rate (76.5 percent y-o-y) and were the growth driver for the rebound in 2010s total handset shipments. This massive growth in smartphone shipments is a result of increasing demand for smartphones in the western markets of North America and Europe. Also, the emerging markets of Asia Pacific and Latin America are seeing rising smartphone demand, due to the wide availability of affordable smartphone devices and supported applications. The share of smartphones as a percentage of total worldwide handset shipments is showing an upward trend, as depicted in the next figure.
Figure 22: Smartphone Shipments as a Percentage of Handset Shipments Worldwide (In Million, 2009 2015F)
39.7% 40%
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 14.7%
2013F
2014F
2015F
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
25
Figure 23: Mobile Equipment Spend Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 2015F)
20
80
63.3
64.5 50.3
40
Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F Forecasted
The mobile market is transitioning from 2G to 3G and above technologies, impacting the overall infrastructure spend on GSM and CDMA networks. Impending LTE launches over the next few years will also drive the infrastructure market, particularly in the developed markets of Europe and North America.
20
Note: Mobile equipment spend does not include services and solutions expenditure. According to Portio estimates, mobile equipment spend currently forms nearly two-thirds of the total mobile infrastructure spend. Please also note: The 2010 figure shown here was originally shown as 2010F at the time of publication in November 2010, and has not been updated for inclusion in this Factbook.
26
Market share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors The figure below highlights the market share of mobile infrastructure vendors at end-June 2010.
Ericsson
Nokia Siemens
Alcatel-Lucent
ZTE
Motorola
Huawei
Others
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If you have any questions or if we can be of any assistance to you, please contact us by email: info@portioresearch.com Copyright 2011. Portio Research Limited 2011 www.portioresearch.com
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