Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA.

ValuEngine covers over 7,000 stocks every day. A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks, and commentary can be found http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click

http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe? August 19, 2011 Record Low 10-Year Yield, Record High Gold = Risk Aversion! The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury declined to a new all time low at 1.973 on Thursday, while gold traded to another new all time high at $1872.2 this morning. Crude oil fell below its 200week simple moving average at $83.93 as a sign of a weakening global economy. For the major equity averages the key supports are: The 200-week and 120-month simple moving averages at 10,730 and 10,569 for the Dow Industrial Average. My annual pivot is 2335 on the NASDAQ. Given the record low yield for the 30-Year bond and the weakness in the equity markets, the fundamentals become cheaper in terms of ValuEngines Valuations. At the Feb 18th high we had a ValuEngine Valuation Warning with more than 65% of all stocks overvalued. At the May 2nd high we had a ValuEngine Valuation Watch with more than 60% of all stocks overvalued. Today only 12.5% of all stocks are overvalued. Back in March 2009 less than 10% of all stocks were overvalued. The negative technicals are trumping the positive fundamentals. 10-Year Note (2.083) Semiannual, weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 2.414, 2.576, 2.690 and 3.053 with a daily pivot at 2.062, Thursdays low is 1.973 and my semiannual risky levels at 1.672.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold ($1828.0) Weekly, quarterly and semiannual value levels are $1685.9, $1655.8 and $1644.8 with a daily pivot at $1845.6, and the August 19th all time high at $1872.2.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil ($81.59) I show no nearby value levels with the 200-week simple moving average is $83.96, the June 27th low at $89.61, daily and weekly risky levels at $88.28 and $92.09, my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $102.40 and $103.92.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro (1.4337) Weekly and quarterly value levels are 1.4229 and 1.3728 with daily and semiannual risky levels at 1.4476 and 1.4752.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (10,991) The 200-week and 120-month simple moving average are 10,730 and 10,567 with annual, daily and weekly risky levels at 11,491, 11,557 and 12,098. Semiannual value levels are 9,635 and 8,468 with prior chart lows as overhead resistances at 11,555 and 11,862.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

S&P 500 (1140.7) Semiannual value levels are 981.3 and 855.7 with annual and daily risky levels at 1210.7 and 1217.7, and chart resistances at 1250 and 1258. NASDAQ (2380) My annual value level is 2335 with chart resistance at 2600 and daily and weekly risky levels at 2579 and 2780. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2073) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1951, 1861 and 1723 with daily and weekly risky levels at 2233 and 2405. Dow Transports (4300) My semiannual value level is 3868 with a semiannual pivot at 4335, and daily and annual risky levels at 4654 and 5179. Russell 2000 (662.51) Semiannual value levels are 577.47 and 530.04 with daily and annual risky levels at 727.20 and 784.16. The SOX (332.23) Annual and semiannual value levels are 270.98, 258.97 and 204.67 with a daily risky level at 365.25 and chart resistance at 381.62. Equity Fundamentals Stocks are cheap, but not as cheap as in March 2009. 87.5% of all stocks are undervalued / 12.5% of all stocks are overvalued. In March 2009, 91.1% of all stocks were undervalued. All sixteen sectors are undervalued, fifteen by double-digit percentages, thirteen by 20.69% to 31.07%. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. - find out which ones at www.ValuEngine.com. The Healthy Homeowner Refi - The best way to help the housing market is to help those who are current on their mortgages. The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage from Freddie Mac is at a record low of 4.15 percent, but this is more than 200 basis points above the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury. It should be just 100 basis points off the 10-Year yield. Heres how it can be done. Offer a Ginnie Mae backed 30-Year Fixed Rate mortgage at 100 basis points over the 10-Year US Treasury yield. With the 10-Year yield at 2.10 the Ginnie Mae government-backed mortgage rate would be just 3.10 percent. Ginnie Mae borrows from the US Treasury to create the funding pool. They keep 50 basis points to cover costs and the servicing bank gets 50 basis points. This will put money in consumers pockets that they do not have today. Other ways to help the housing market includes: Allowing any homeowner to reduce a mortgage by taking funds from a retirement account without penalty and without paying taxes on these funds. A tax help would allow a homeowner who sells a home at a loss, to have that capital loss as a tax deduction amortized over ten years. VE Morning Briefing If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D ValuTrader Model Portfolio If you want to learn how to Buy and Trade use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V ETF Weekly If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. My August report will be published today. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C Definition of MOJO This is my term for technical momentum. I use whats called 12x3x3 slow stochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold. Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions Value Level The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level. Risky Level The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level. Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions Value Level The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level. Risky Level The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level. Richard Suttmeier Chief Market Strategist ValuEngine.com (800) 381-5576 To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe? Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.