Esperanza y varianza

Valor medio y desviacion de los flujos de caja

Rdito
0.1
Inversin
Periodo0
Periodo1
Periodo2
Periodo3
Importe
Prob.
Importe
Prob.
Importe
Prob.
Importe
Prob.
800
1
500
0.5
600
0.3
600
0.5
700
0.4
800
0.3
1

Media
Actualizado
VAN
VAN
Varianza
Constantes
Varianza de VC
Desviacion

800
800
278.51
$278.51
0
0
6164.2
78.51

550
500

500
500
500
600
600
600

700
578.51

0
0

0
0

6000
4098.08

0
0

0
0

6000
2500
2066.12

Prob
800
800
800
800
800
800

Periodo4
Importe
Prob.

600
700
800
600
700
800

VAN
E[VAN]
x-xi
Cuadrado Varianza
0.15
150.41
22.56 -128.1
16409.4
2461.41
0.2
233.06
46.61 -45.45
2066.12
413.22
0.15
315.7
47.36
37.19
1383.1
207.47
0.15
241.32
36.2 -37.19
1383.1
207.47
0.2
323.97
64.79
45.45
2066.12
413.22
0.15
406.61
60.99
128.1
16409.4
2461.41
278.51
6164.2

Page 1

Esperanza y varianza 2

Valor medio y desviacin de los flujos de caja (Captulo 11 Suarez)

(El ejercicio anterior con los datos del problema del libro
Decisiones ptimas de inversin y financiacin en la empresa.
Rdito

0.07

1
2
3
Inversin
Periodo 1
Periodo 2
Periodo 3
Importe
Prob.
Importe
Prob.
Importe
Prob.
Importe
Prob.
40000
0.1
10000
0.05
18000
0.1
25000
42000
0.15
12000
0.1
20000
0.17
28000
44000
0.25
14000
0.35
22000
0.23
31000
46000
0.25
16000
0.35
24000
0.23
34000
48000
0.15
18000
0.1
26000
0.17
37000
50000
0.1
20000
0.05
28000
0.1
40000
1
1
1

Media
Actualizado
VAN
VAN
Varianza
Constantes
Varianza de VC
Desviacion

45000
45000
15637
15637
8200000
8200000
###
5177.19

4
Periodo 4
Importe
0.03
0.17
0.3
0.3
0.17
0.03
1

Prob.
0

15000
14018.69

23000
20089.09

32500
26529.68

0
0

5000000
4367193.64

8520000
6499867.21

11610000
7736233.22

0
0

Page 2

An Sensibilidad

Reduccin de flujos de caja a condiciones de certeza

Rdito

0.1

0
-1000

1
300

100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650

###
-44.58
0.87
46.33
91.78
137.24
182.69
228.15
273.6
319.05
364.51
409.96
455.42

2
300

3
300

4
300

5
300

VAN

137.24 Pts

500

400

300
Series1

200

100

Y=Bx+
A
0.91 -135.49
Y=0

149.04

-100
100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Page 3

500

550

600

650

Monte Carlo
10%
0.46
0.96
0.48
0.85
0.19
0.33
0.54
0.56
0.65
0.17
0.28
0.02
0.14
0.66
0.18
0.63
0.36
0.54
0.35
0.5
0.71
0.51
0.98
0.37
0.58
0.57
0.77
0.67
0.3
0.34
0.04
0.09
0.12
0.64

0.06
0.34
0.17
0.34
0.87
0.74
0.54
0.13
0.07
0.72
0.98
0.24
0.41
0.01
0.51
0.15
0.72
0.91
0.9
0.48
0.38
0.44
0.17
0.05
0.23
0.83
0.18
0.89
0.03
0.26
0.04
0.86
0.37
0.53

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
600
500
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
500
500
500
600
500
600
500
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
600
500
600
600
500
500
500
500
500
600

600
700
600
700
800
800
700
600
600
800
800
600
700
600
700
600
800
800
800
700
700
700
600
600
600
800
600
800
600
600
600
800
700
700

Esperanza Varianza
150.41 Pts
280.02 6207.76
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
Page 4

Monte Carlo
0.93
0.38
0.09
0.21
0.91
0.01
0.13
0.27
0.04
0.18
0.93
0.12
0.34
0.37
0.6
0.46
0.91
0.55
0.02
0.67
0.52
0.98
0.56
0.28
0.8
0.51
0.22
0.24
0.58
0.49
0.17
0.71
0.74
0.68
0.25
0.8
0.84

0.5
0.16
0.95
0.77
0.36
0.85
0.07
0.16
0.29
0.62
0.35
0.69
0.38
0.13
0.99
0.75
0.79
0.39
0.38
0.59
0.86
0.84
0.1
0.64
0.05
0.48
0
0.56
0.71
0.76
0.24
0.4
0.28
0.74
0.99
0.94
0.81

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
500
500
500
600
500
500
500
500
500
600
500
500
500
600
500
600
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
600
600
500
500
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
600

700
600
800
800
700
800
600
600
600
700
700
700
700
600
800
800
800
700
700
700
800
800
600
700
600
700
600
700
800
800
600
700
600
800
800
800
800

323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
Page 5

Monte Carlo
0.39
0.43
0.77
0.42
0.13
0.54
0.14
0.13
0.16
0.85
0.38
0.16
0.06
0.48
0.07
0.81
0.26
0.86
0.32
0.41
0.44
0.17
0.94
0.82
0.61
0.45
0.6
0.32
0.97
0.18
0.65
0.64
0.08
0.69
0.16
0.23
0.91

0.07
0.04
0.95
0.62
0.24
0.47
0.97
0.36
0.88
0.1
0.31
0.17
0.53
0.84
0.04
0.46
0.85
0.27
0.12
0.54
0.34
0.39
0.13
0.7
0.67
0.62
0.43
0.38
0.05
0.77
0.82
0.12
0.35
0.05
0.76
0.16
0.07

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
500
600
500
500
600
500
500
500
600
500
500
500
500
500
600
500
600
500
500
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
500
600
500
600
600
500
600
500
500
600

600
600
800
700
600
700
800
700
800
600
700
600
700
800
600
700
800
600
600
700
700
700
600
700
700
700
700
700
600
800
800
600
700
600
800
600
600

150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
Page 6

Monte Carlo
0.38
0.84
0.29
0.35
0.9
0.54
0.92
0.07
0.84
0.68
0.59
0.28
0.45
0.08
0.47
0.56
0.75
0.42
0.37
0.37
0.13
0.04
0.47
0.75
0.74
0.89
0.21
0.92
0.67
0.26
0.12
0.24
0.09
0.19
0.15
0.64
0.62

0.05
0.21
0.89
0.04
0.79
0.64
0.59
0.44
0.86
0.18
0.24
0.77
0.86
0.33
0.34
0.01
0.06
0.43
0.76
0.52
0.71
0.43
0.87
0.85
0.5
0.07
0.94
0.74
0.47
0.47
0.51
0.35
0.26
0.93
0.68
0.18
0.21

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
600
600
500
500
500
500
600
600
500
500
500
500
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
600
500
500
500
500
500
500
600
600

600
600
800
600
800
700
700
700
800
600
600
800
800
700
700
600
600
700
800
700
800
700
800
800
700
600
800
800
700
700
700
700
600
800
700
600
600

150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
Page 7

Monte Carlo
0.63
0.24
0.25
0.28
0.3
0.51
0.39
0.26
0.11
0.63
0.51
0.96
0.89
0.77
0.13
0.58
0.54
0.81
0.14
0.35
0.33
0.91
0.64
0.21
0.85
0.2
0.86
0.46
0.77
0.68
0.88
0.77
0.34
0.62
0.29
0.3
0.67

0.23
0.95
0.39
0.04
0.51
0.93
0.81
0.23
0.34
0.78
0.41
0.65
0.94
0.89
0.57
0.56
0.95
0.68
0.78
0.34
0.3
0.13
0.99
0.66
0.52
0.62
0.28
0.64
0.76
0.1
0.37
0.65
0.28
0.79
0.31
0.59
0.57

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
500
500
500
500
600
500
500
600
600
600
600
600
600
500
600
600
600
500
500
500
600
600
500
600
500
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
600
500
500
600

600
800
700
600
700
800
800
600
700
800
700
700
800
800
700
700
800
700
800
700
700
600
800
700
700
700
600
700
800
600
700
700
600
800
700
700
700

241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
Page 8

Monte Carlo
0.88
0.89
0.51
0.78
0.31
0.02
0.29
0.43
0.91
0.06
0.9
0.62
0.71
0.81
0.34
0.67
0.52
0.42
0
0.97
0.12
0.29
0.66
0.61
0.05
0.47
0.76
0.96
0.55
0.17
0.89
0.17
0.43
0.06
0.01
0.16
0.43

0.4
0.92
0.91
0.37
0.49
0.34
0.03
0.06
0.14
0.09
0.65
0.31
0.25
0.3
0.23
0.35
0.97
0.83
0.21
0.53
0.77
0.96
0.47
0.16
0.64
0.5
0.08
0.21
0.18
0.4
0.3
0.05
0.83
0.2
0.05
0.52
0.42

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
600
600
600
500
500
500
500
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
600
600
500
500
600
500
500
600
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
500
500
500
500
600
500

700
800
800
700
700
700
600
600
600
600
700
700
600
600
600
700
800
800
600
700
800
800
700
600
700
700
600
600
600
700
600
600
800
600
600
700
700

323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
Page 9

Monte Carlo
0.62
0.14
0.03
0.92
0.8
0.24
0.82
0.62
0.92
0.09
0.46
0.74
0.89
0.04
0.44
0.82
0.7
0.5
0.15
0.27
0.33
0.96
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.46
0.5
0.76
0.56
0.7
0.56
0.93
0.96
0.16
0.25
0.34
0.96

0.12
0.94
0.36
0.81
0.63
0.53
0.92
0.54
0.23
0.09
0.04
0
0.1
0.15
0.61
0.94
0.26
0
0.96
0.09
0.6
0.98
0.85
0.56
0.52
0.93
0.72
0.59
0.45
0.65
0.02
0.21
0.45
0.85
0.55
0.62
0.9

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
500
500
600
600
500
600
600
600
500
500
600
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
500
500
600
500
500
500
500
600
600
600
600
600
600
600
500
500
500
600

600
800
700
800
700
700
800
700
600
600
600
600
600
600
700
800
600
600
800
600
700
800
800
700
700
800
800
700
700
700
600
600
700
800
700
700
800

241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
Page 10

Monte Carlo
0.84
0.93
0.35
0.7
0.01
0.88
0.24
0.98
0.41
1
0.98
0.81
0.72
0.81
0.22
0.12
0.44
0.37
0.99
0.44
0.28
0.87
0.17
0.92
0.12
0.29
0.98
0.98
0.25
0.17
0.4
0.13
0.54
0.64
0.91
0.48
0.36

0.58
0.94
0.23
0.64
0.34
0.99
0.57
0.31
0.34
0.35
0.03
0.16
0.93
0.25
0.51
0.62
0.96
0.56
0.99
0.89
0.94
0.27
0.65
0.06
0.34
0.68
0.72
0.02
0.37
0.05
0.41
0.34
0.15
0.25
0.59
0.59
0.4

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
600
500
600
500
600
500
600
500
600
600
600
600
600
500
500
500
500
600
500
500
600
500
600
500
600
600
600
500
500
500
500
600
600
600
500
500

700
800
600
700
700
800
700
700
700
700
600
600
800
600
700
700
800
700
800
800
800
600
700
600
700
700
800
600
700
600
700
700
600
600
700
700
700

323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
Page 11

Monte Carlo
0.45
0.7
0.32
0.45
0.29
0.87
0.69
0.98
0.29
0.32
0.09
0.97
0.19
0.69
0.42
0.56
0.2
0.53
0.98
0.34
0.56
0.19
0.03
0.66
0.74
0.93
0.87
0.59
0.87
0.74
0.41
0.46
0.81
0.09
0.1
0.35
0.31

0.41
0.57
0.1
0.59
0.88
0.79
0.94
0.82
0.41
0.58
0.34
0.14
0.11
0.81
0.79
0.93
0.57
0.91
0.83
0.19
0.97
0.69
0.67
0.31
0.7
0.93
0.54
0.76
0.09
0.97
0.26
0.19
0.02
0.3
0.23
0.72
0.8

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
600
500
500
500
600
600
600
500
500
500
600
500
600
500
600
500
600
600
500
600
500
500
600
600
600
600
600
600
600
500
500
600
500
500
500
500

700
700
600
700
800
800
800
800
700
700
700
600
600
800
800
800
700
800
800
600
800
700
700
700
800
800
700
800
600
800
600
600
600
600
600
800
800

233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
Page 12

Monte Carlo
0.38
0.09
0.31
0.85
0.9
0.25
0.39
0.7
0.5
0.53
0.72
0.8
0.7
0.12
0
0.88
0.71
0.07
0.38
0.3
0.41
0.23
0.01
0.16
0.2
0.09
0.78
0.74
0.6
0.7
0.01
0.34
0.62
0.47
0.45
0.22
0.93

0.07
0.72
0.16
0.72
0.69
0.34
0.44
0.94
0.98
0.98
0.6
0.31
0.22
0.71
0.5
0.81
0.57
0.59
0.71
0.61
0.99
0.03
0.17
0.49
0.94
0.87
0.23
0.32
0.07
0.08
0.47
0.55
0.03
0.08
0.76
0.51
0.43

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
500
500
600
600
500
500
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
500
600
600
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
600
600
600
600
500
500
600
500
500
500
600

600
800
600
800
700
700
700
800
800
800
700
700
600
800
700
800
700
700
800
700
800
600
600
700
800
800
600
700
600
600
700
700
600
600
800
700
700

150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
Page 13

Monte Carlo
0.98
0.64
0.46
0.16
0.93
0.63
0.74
0.01
0.76
0.19
0.99
0.28
0.6
0.98
0.8
0.46
0.57
0.53
0.54
0.75
0.59
0.36
0.67
0.91
0.73
0.55
0.28
0.36
0.8
0.6
0.87
0.38
0.64
0.87
0.93
0.98
0.38

0.04
0.61
0.31
0.36
0.74
0.17
0.06
0.9
0.94
0.34
0.6
0.4
0.07
0.91
0.88
0.16
0.95
0.96
0.66
0.63
0.98
0.99
0.25
0.7
0.26
0.62
0.08
0.6
0.79
0.28
0.7
0.62
0.59
0.01
0.72
0.8
0.06

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
500
600
500
600
600
600
500
600
600
600
600
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
600
600
600
500

600
700
700
700
800
600
600
800
800
700
700
700
600
800
800
600
800
800
700
700
800
800
600
800
600
700
600
700
800
600
800
700
700
600
800
800
600

241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
Page 14

Monte Carlo
0.53
0.14
0.88
0.8
0.61
0.23
0.56
0.86
0.24
0.01
0.64
0.63
0.28
0.84
0.16
0.1
0.68
0.68
0.42
0.76
0.32
0.78
0.57
0.88
0.99
0.58
0.23
0.52
0.34
0.92
0.4
0.11
0.64
0.17
0.68
0.57
0.22

0.84
0.18
0.12
0.2
0.21
0.92
0.5
0.51
0.71
0.92
0.69
0.52
0.74
0.42
0.9
0.81
0.7
0.36
0.47
0.06
0.69
0.3
0.93
0.04
0.4
0.56
0.55
0.51
0.89
0.64
0.51
0.37
0.62
0.02
0.29
0.7
0.49

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
500
600
600
600
600
600
600
500
500
600
600
500
600
500
500
600
600
500
600
500
600
600
600
600
600
500
600
500
600
500
500
600
500
600
600
500

800
600
600
600
600
800
700
700
800
800
700
700
800
700
800
800
700
700
700
600
700
700
800
600
700
700
700
700
800
700
700
700
700
600
600
800
700

406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
Page 15

Monte Carlo
0.56
0.32
0.7
0.36
0.24
0.8
0.72
0.93
0.2
0.15
0.88
0.85
0.58
0.53
0.07
0.4
0.79
0.02
0.85
0.79
0.26
0.59
0.52
0.85
0.2
0.35
0.94
0.48
0.31
0.87
0.47
0.07
0.1
0.51
0.37
0.73
0.8

0.7
0.34
0.97
0.1
0
0.62
0.57
0.22
0.86
0.59
0.7
0.44
0.91
0.38
0.45
0.68
0.92
0.2
0.74
0.51
0.66
0.39
0.78
0.95
0.39
0.81
0.62
0.49
0.36
1
0.45
0.19
0.94
0.87
0.09
0.99
0.52

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
500
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
500
600
600
600
600
500
500
600
500
600
600
500
600
600
600
500
500
600
500
500
600
500
500
600
600
500
600
600

800
700
800
600
600
700
700
600
800
700
700
700
800
700
700
700
800
600
800
700
700
700
800
800
700
800
700
700
700
800
700
600
800
800
600
800
700

406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
Page 16

Monte Carlo
0.46
0.08
0.68
0.3
0.02
0.31
0.14
0.15
0.38
0.63
0.85
0.94
0.91
0.67
0.01
0.51
0.48
0.81
0.44
0.57
0.44
0.17
0.37
0.54
0.43
0.25
0.73
0.75
0.07
0.18
0.25
0.17
0.26
0.18
0.81
0.03
0.38

0.28
0.43
0.25
0.95
0.92
0.18
0.51
0.3
0.06
0.92
0.03
0.89
0.14
0.88
0.93
0.36
0.28
1
0.87
0.57
0.53
0.49
0.4
0.82
0.89
0.74
0.63
0.06
0.67
0.7
0.68
0.52
0.25
0.73
0.88
0.38
0.34

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
500
600
500
500
500
500
500
500
600
600
600
600
600
500
600
500
600
500
600
500
500
500
600
500
500
600
600
500
500
500
500
500
500
600
500
500

600
700
600
800
800
600
700
700
600
800
600
800
600
800
800
700
600
800
800
700
700
700
700
800
800
800
700
600
700
800
700
700
600
800
800
700
700

150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
Page 17

Monte Carlo
0.61
0.65
0.35
0.89
0.72
0.03
0.77
0.03
0.54
0.59
0.55
0.9
0.5
0.9
0.33
0.21
0.49
0.57
0.54
0.39
0.85
0.27
0.63
0.4
0.85
0.39
0.28
0.26
0.95
0.29
0.82
0.27
0.87
0.41
0.28
0.76
0.86

0.84
0.25
0.94
0.26
0.21
0.17
0.37
0.54
0.97
0.47
0.71
0.15
0.75
0.17
0.03
0.13
0.53
0.32
0.82
0.68
0.26
0.36
0.36
0.25
0.12
0.56
0.77
0.14
0.94
0.85
0.37
0.48
0.34
0.47
0.99
0.91
0.97

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
600
500
600
600
500
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
600
500
500
500
600
600
500
600
500
600
500
600
500
500
500
600
500
600
500
600
500
500
600
600

800
600
800
600
600
600
700
700
800
700
800
600
800
600
600
600
700
700
800
700
600
700
700
600
600
700
800
600
800
800
700
700
700
700
800
800
800

406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
Page 18

Monte Carlo
0.2
0.6
0.68
0.97
0.76
0.63
0.49
0.1
0.69
0.51
0.52
0.93
0.47
0.25
0.45
0.91
0.87
0.12
0.15
0.36
0.72
0.41
0.49
0.01
0.32
0.77
0.06
0.91
0.6
0.89
0.04
0.04
0.3
0.18
0.79
0.07
0.59

0.93
0.64
0.02
0.52
0.04
0.93
0.43
0.91
0.68
0.28
0.62
0.1
0.67
0.76
0.79
0.98
0.52
0.01
0.35
0.6
0.29
0.59
0.77
0.38
0.38
0.68
0.74
0.25
0.15
0.61
0.7
0.66
0.41
0.88
0.9
0.03
0.13

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
600
600
600
600
600
500
500
600
600
600
600
500
500
500
600
600
500
500
500
600
500
500
500
500
600
500
600
600
600
500
500
500
500
600
500
600

800
700
600
700
600
800
700
800
700
600
700
600
700
800
800
800
700
600
700
700
600
700
800
700
700
700
800
600
600
700
700
700
700
800
800
600
600

315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
Page 19

Monte Carlo
0.43
0.65
0.71
0.17
0.84
0.8
0.89
0.62
0.18
0.99
0.02
0.26
0.76
0.83
0.04
0.45
0.34
0.78
0.9
0.22
0.83
0.29
0.09
0.28
0.32
0.78
0.68
1
0.35
0.08
0.06
0.9
0.81
0.69
0.36
0.12
0.63

0.28
0.66
0.19
0.06
0.31
0.48
0.17
0.79
0.31
0.88
0.53
0.21
0.26
0.43
0.84
0.38
0.86
0.11
0.1
0.54
0.34
0.73
0.6
0.86
0.44
0.34
0.57
0.9
0.37
0.66
0.33
0.99
0.11
0.91
0.99
0.11
0.97

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
600
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
600
500
500
600
600
500
500
500
600
600
500
600
500
500
500
500
600
600
600
500
500
500
600
600
600
500
500
600

600
700
600
600
700
700
600
800
700
800
700
600
600
700
800
700
800
600
600
700
700
800
700
800
700
700
700
800
700
700
700
800
600
800
800
600
800

150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
Page 20

Monte Carlo
0.45
0.87
0.1
0.32
0.75
0.7
0.84
0.18
0.11
0.15
0.04
0.97
0.72
0.25
0.15
0.43
0.28
0.4
0.02
0.38
0
0.78
0.85
0.77
0.11
0.58
0
0.77
0.66
0.32
0.55
0.88
0.12
0.14
0.08
0.67
0.64

0.2
0.83
0.43
0.72
0.42
0.97
0.61
0.05
0.66
0.09
0.29
0.57
0.14
0.55
0.74
0.32
0.61
0.75
0.5
0.66
0.52
0.33
0.31
0.04
0.06
0.87
0.18
0.51
0.56
0.84
0.97
0.85
0.98
0.56
0.9
0.36
0.12

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
500
500
500
600
600
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
500
600
600
500
600
600
500
500
500
600
600

600
800
700
800
700
800
700
600
700
600
600
700
600
700
800
700
700
800
700
700
700
700
700
600
600
800
600
700
700
800
800
800
800
700
800
700
600

150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
Page 21

Monte Carlo
0.33
0.81
0.11
0.86
0.34
0.83
0.67
0.03
0.38
0.21
0.98
0.48
0.37
0.92
0.07
0.12
0.77
0.1
0.29
0.08
0.34
0.38
0.6
0.7
0.19
0.35
0.85
0.45
0.04
0.2
0.28
0.37
0.2
0.42
0.08
0.05
0.85

0.24
0.73
0.2
0.26
0.67
0.82
0.53
0.73
0.45
0.23
0.95
0.29
0.71
0.9
0.71
0.04
0.78
0.65
0.27
0.36
0.79
0.02
0.72
0.07
0.12
0.68
0.58
0.13
0.39
0.86
0.53
0.31
0.55
0.27
0.84
0.71
0.37

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
600
600
600
500
600
600
500
500
500
600
500
500
600
500
500
600
500
500
500
500
500
600
600
500
500
600
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
600

600
800
600
600
700
800
700
800
700
600
800
600
800
800
800
600
800
700
600
700
800
600
800
600
600
700
700
600
700
800
700
700
700
600
800
800
700

150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
Page 22

Monte Carlo
0.25
0.46
0.51
0.54
0.21
0.73
0.72
0.13
0.36
0.59
0.82
0.69
0.31
0.54
0.33
0.12
0.1
0.67
0.03
0.68
0.85
0.73
0.81
0.67
0.18
0.41
0.53
0.21
0.57
0.17
0.53
0.2
0.1
0.31
0.07
0.72
0.06

0.72
0.6
0.3
0.01
0.15
0.98
0.25
0.11
0.08
0.43
0.74
0.18
0.35
0.31
0.54
0.86
0.03
0.16
0.79
0.66
0.1
0.76
0.13
0.54
0.59
0.3
0.5
0.66
0.8
0.86
0.95
0.49
0.08
0.83
0.16
0.47
0.7

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
500
600
600
500
600
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
500
500
500
600
500
600
600
600
600
600
500
500
600
500
600
600
600
500
500
500
500
600
500

800
700
700
600
600
800
600
600
600
700
800
600
700
700
700
800
600
600
800
700
600
800
600
700
700
700
700
700
800
800
800
700
600
800
600
700
800

315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
Page 23

Monte Carlo
0.85
0.35
0.83
0.73
0.59
0.57
0.34
0.23
0.46
0.8
0.09
0.61
0.28
0.33
0.44
0.65
0.41
0.9
0.15
0.13
0.88
0.26
0.9
0.29
0.64
0.57
0.96
0.25
0.36
0.19
0.78
0.75
0.21
0.3
0.54
0.6
0.5

0.73
0.51
0.9
0.9
0.43
0.12
0.8
0.63
0.54
0.51
0.86
0.81
0.56
0.38
0.64
0.38
0.74
0.45
0.31
0.84
0.04
0.47
0.86
0.33
0.25
0.71
0.07
0.42
0.22
0.87
0.3
0.01
0.98
0.82
0.72
0.96
0.55

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
500
600
600
600
600
500
500
500
600
500
600
500
500
500
600
500
600
500
500
600
500
600
500
600
600
600
500
500
500
600
600
500
500
600
600
500

800
700
800
800
700
600
800
700
700
700
800
800
700
700
700
700
800
700
700
800
600
700
800
700
600
800
600
700
600
800
600
600
800
800
800
800
700

406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
Page 24

Monte Carlo
0.49
0.12
0.89
0.91
0.51
0.36
0.2
0.94
0.86
0.47
0.06
0.54
0.87
0.93
0.4
1
0.92
0.31
0.67
0.75
0.93
0.3
0.75
0.73
0.66
0.75
0.19
0.8
0.94
0.88
0.66
0.58
0.76
0.37
0.67
0.87
0.22

0.79
0.9
0.15
0.02
0.01
0.82
0.22
0.77
0.89
0.9
0.26
0.23
0.75
0.69
0.96
0.04
0.13
0.07
0.95
0.5
0.37
0.12
0.11
0.62
0.84
0.55
0.34
0.76
0.12
0.5
0.69
0.62
0.31
0.9
0.99
1
0.69

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
500
600
600
600
500
500
600
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
600
500
600
600
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
600
600
600
600
600
600
500
600
600
500

800
800
600
600
600
800
600
800
800
800
600
600
800
700
800
600
600
600
800
700
700
600
600
700
800
700
700
800
600
700
700
700
700
800
800
800
700

315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
Page 25

Monte Carlo
0.92
0
0.93
0.57
0.58
0.77
0.07
0.41
0.1
0.33
0.27
0.75
0.15
0.52
0.28
0.59
0.91
0.39
0.56
0.83
0.44
0.1
0.82
0.79
0.23
0.03
0.59
0.87
0.78
0.45
0.89
0.06
0.34
0.62
0.78
0.44
0.43

0.4
0.6
0.64
0.58
0.23
0.9
0.2
0.56
0.02
0.88
0.88
0.03
0.57
0.37
0.66
0.65
0.34
0.51
0.87
0.19
0.58
0.17
0.85
0.69
0.51
0.08
0.39
0.65
0.53
0.13
0.57
0.26
0.39
0.99
0.46
0.6
0.38

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
500
600
600
600
600
500
500
500
500
500
600
500
600
500
600
600
500
600
600
500
500
600
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
500
500
600
600
500
500

700
700
700
700
600
800
600
700
600
800
800
600
700
700
700
700
700
700
800
600
700
600
800
700
700
600
700
700
700
600
700
600
700
800
700
700
700

323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
Page 26

Monte Carlo
0.95
0.27
0.38
0.81
0.28
0.71
0.8
0.3
0.8
0.05
0.31
0.65
0.89
0.74
0.27
0.84
0.03
0.7
0.38
0.32
0.93
0.74
0.62
0.2
0.71
0.71
0.79
0.62
0.32
0.11
0.34
0.14
0.12
0.15
0.13
0.12
0.27

0.77
0.94
0.11
0.03
0.63
0.49
0.82
0.21
0.72
0.06
0.99
0.44
0.07
0.9
0.93
0.15
0.68
0.77
0.05
0.39
0.8
0.35
0.59
0.9
0.89
0.14
0.17
0.62
0.19
0.36
0.52
0.88
0.38
0.1
0.78
0.57
0.75

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
500
500
600
500
600
600
500
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
500
600
500
500
600
600
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500

800
800
600
600
700
700
800
600
800
600
800
700
600
800
800
600
700
800
600
700
800
700
700
800
800
600
600
700
600
700
700
800
700
600
800
700
800

406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
Page 27

Monte Carlo
0.71
0.38
0.74
0.86
0.3
0.31
0.95
0.86
0.44
0.17
0.91
0.2
0.6
0.23
0.62
0.91
0.27
0.96
0.62
0.73
0.58
0.45
0.9
0.93
0.88
0.78
0.09
0.92
0.54
0.28
0.82
0.55
0.21
0.73
0.7
0.31
0.84

0.31
0.79
0.76
0.77
0.64
0.52
0.99
0.45
0.38
0.8
0.05
0.1
0.73
0.39
0.18
0.16
0.73
0.01
0.89
0.18
0.52
0.29
0.84
0.8
0.27
0.77
0.7
0.01
0.74
0.47
0.1
0.42
0.25
0.86
0.15
0.93
0.37

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
500
600
600
500
500
600
600
500
500
600
500
600
500
600
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
600
600
500
600
600
500
600
600
500
600

700
800
800
800
700
700
800
700
700
800
600
600
800
700
600
600
800
600
800
600
700
600
800
800
600
800
800
600
800
700
600
700
600
800
600
800
700

323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
406.61 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
Page 28

Monte Carlo
0.3
0.88
0.32
0.41
0.48
0.64
0.91
0.07
0.29
0.13
0.93
0.01
0.58
0.31
0.12
0.35
0.02
0.78
0.89
0.47
0.98
0.59
0.41
0.06
0.06
0.24
0.18
0.61
0.83
0.53
0.57
0.7
0.2
0.29
0.84
0.55
0.01

0.48
0.03
0.54
0.45
0.2
0.15
0.38
0.19
0.28
0.54
0.23
0.92
0.86
0.74
0
0.03
0.49
0.96
0.08
0.48
0.48
0.11
0.73
0.27
0.7
0.54
0.12
0.64
0.27
0.29
0.44
0.78
1
0.66
0.89
0.85
0.22

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

500
600
500
500
500
600
600
500
500
500
600
500
600
500
500
500
500
600
600
500
600
600
500
500
500
500
500
600
600
600
600
600
500
500
600
600
500

700
600
700
700
600
600
700
600
600
700
600
800
800
800
600
600
700
800
600
700
700
600
800
600
800
700
600
700
600
600
700
800
800
700
800
800
600

233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
406.61 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
Page 29

Monte Carlo
0.64
0.66
0.51
0.23
0.04
0.25
0.9
0.82
0.03
0.85
0.6
0.79
0.58
0.05
0.16
0.94
0.95
0.14
0.16
0.7
0.31
0.38
0.17
0.88
0.18
0.95
0.99
0.19
0.53
0.1
0.09
0.59
0.38
0.75
0.06
0.05
0.74

0.1
0.44
0.1
0.62
0.47
0.26
0.91
0.02
0.85
0.25
0.69
0.56
0.99
0.11
0.05
0.81
0.16
0.24
0.22
0.09
0.15
0.43
0.84
0.55
0.15
0.59
0.02
1
0.36
0.79
0.68
0.56
0.19
0.21
0.91
0.82
0.96

-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800
-800

600
600
600
500
500
500
600
600
500
600
600
600
600
500
500
600
600
500
500
600
500
500
500
600
500
600
500
500
600
500
500
600
500
600
500
500
600

600
700
600
700
700
600
800
600
800
600
700
700
800
600
600
800
600
600
600
600
600
700
800
700
600
700
600
800
700
800
700
700
600
600
800
800
800

241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
233.06 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
241.32 Pts
323.97 Pts
323.97 Pts
406.61 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
406.61 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
150.41 Pts
233.06 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
315.70 Pts
323.97 Pts
315.70 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
150.41 Pts
241.32 Pts
315.70 Pts
315.70 Pts
406.61 Pts
Page 30

Monte Carlo
0.72
0.34
0.54
0.32

0.25
0.58
0.57
0.46

-800
-800
-800
-800

600
500
600
500

600
700
700
700

241.32 Pts
233.06 Pts
323.97 Pts
233.06 Pts

Page 31

Sheet1
Se simula una inversin de valor (1 a 5) x 10 y se obtienen 10 flujos de valor 1 a 5 uniformememente distribuidos, en funcin de un nmero aleatorio.
redito
Flujos
0.05
1
2
3
4
5
A
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10
1 0.89 0.97 0.65 0.53 0.63##################
50 5 4 3 4 2 2 5 5 1 2 23.86 Pts
2 0.28 0.3 0.52 0.09 0.22##################
20 2 3 1 2 1 4 1 5 3 5 -0.00 Pts
3 0.14 0.32 0.51 0.9 0.94##################
10 2 3 5 5 3 1 1 1 2 1 -9.45 Pts
4 0.17 0.73 0.57 0.98 0.14##################
10 4 3 5 1 2 2 5 5 2 2
###
5 0.85 0.49 0.4 0.89 0.7##################
50 3 2 5 4 4 3 3 5 1 3 24.34 Pts
6 0.99 0.23 0.96 0.56 0.63##################
50 2 5 3 4 4 3 4 3 5 1 23.59 Pts
7 0.97 0.83 0.17 0.14 0.82##################
50 5 1 1 5 5 2 4 2 3 1 27.20 Pts
8 0.08 0.31 0.99 0.61 0.76##################
10 2 5 4 4 5 2 2 2 5 5
###
9 0.29 0.17 0.32 0.59 0.17##################
20 1 2 3 1 2 5 3 4 1 5 -0.03 Pts
10 0.33 0.19 0.82 0.07 0.53##################
20 1 5 1 3 1 4 5 3 4 3 -2.59 Pts
11 0.76 0.17 0.43 0.28 0.96### 1############
40 1 3 2 5 1 5 4 5 5 2 15.29 Pts
12 0.2 0.6 0.44 0.56 0.37##################
20 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 4 5 2 -0.67 Pts
13 0.21 0.45 0.62 0.15 0.15############### 0
20 3 4 1 1 3 1 4 2 2 1 2.63 Pts
14 0.89 0.29 0.49 0.3 0.68##################
50 2 3 2 4 4 3 3 1 2 3 29.04 Pts
15 0.84 0.57 0.65 0.02 0.14##################
50 3 4 1 1 5 1 1 4 1 5 30.03 Pts
16 0.66 0.83 0.24 0.49 0.75##################
40 5 2 3 4 5 5 2 4 1 2 13.89 Pts
17 0.65 0.53 0.71 0.85 0.03##################
40 3 4 5 1 4 3 2 4 4 2 15.07 Pts
18 0.42 0.57 0.86 0.87 0.44##################
30 3 5 5 3 2 3 3 4 1 1 5.92 Pts
19 0.06 0.46 0.15 0.22 0.75###### 0#########
10 3 1 2 4 4 1 1 4 4 3
###
20 0.59 0.58 0.28 0.4 0.57##################
30 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 5 2 1 10.65 Pts
21 0.42 0.27 0.13 0.16 0.37##################
50 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 5 5 33.26 Pts
22 0.63 0.87 0.75 0.62 0.53##################
40 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 9.19 Pts
23 0.97 0.96 0.83 0.15 0.71##################
50 5 5 1 4 3 5 4 5 3 5 19.24 Pts
24 0.24 0.4 0.12 0.03 0.88##################
20 2 1 1 5 1 5 3 4 3 2 -0.30 Pts
25 0.3 0.86 0.66 0.69 0.71##################
20 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 5 -8.35 Pts
26 0.85 0.92 0.71 0.4 0.22##################
50 5 4 3 2 4 5 2 4 5 4 20.70 Pts
27 0.19 0.53 0.45 0.35 0.91##################
10 3 3 2 5 5 1 5 2 2 1
###
28 0.95 0.71 0.23 0.45 0.67##################
50 4 2 3 4 1 3 5 3 2 1 27.98 Pts
29 0.7 0.02 0.47 0.17 0.25##################
40 1 3 1 2 5 4 3 4 4 5 16.43 Pts
30 0.18 0.75 0.67 0.68 0.62##################
10 4 4 4 4 5 1 1 5 2 5
###

Page 32