Greenberg Studdy

Arab Spring and Frozen Peace
Palestinian Opinion, Summer 2011

Key findings from a national survey of 1,010 Palestinians Adults in the West Bank and Gaza, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner June 20 through July 8, 2011
The research
Methodology:
Face-to-Face survey of 1,010 random-sample Palestinian adults (18+)
656 in the West Bank 353 in the Gaza Strip
Margin of Error: 3.1% at 95% confidence

3.8% in the West Bank 5.2% in Gaza
Survey conducted June 22 through July 8, 2011, by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner via Palestinian research partner, Palestinian Center for Public Opinion directed by Dr. Nabil Kukali.
July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 2
Highlighted results
Great ambivalence about Arab Spring and do not see Palestinian struggle as part of it.
UN declaration of independent Palestinian state not of high interest or priority for Palestinians.
Fatah and PA leadership have rising standing, while Hamas and Iran has crashed in public support, especially in Gaza. This is a period of great aversion to violence and opposition to a Third Intifada. This is a period for negotiation, though no belief that current Israeli government interested. Shift to material well-being with greater focus on jobs and investment, health care and governmental performance
Highlighted results
Majority support for Obama plan, though not a lot of confidence in the US to watch out for Palestinian interests. Majority say negotiate, not boycott Netanyahus plan, despite its parameters. One third accept agreement with two homelands for two peoples, but majority prefer path to one state. Near universal support for Jerusalem as Palestinian capital, where Jewish history is denied. Broad belief in key parts of Hamas charter expressing jihad against the Jews but do not accept part rejecting peaceful solution. Moderate version of Islam predominant in territories, though Gaza more supportive of Sharia law.
The Arab Spring and the Palestinians
Arab Spring reactions divided and uncertain

Of the following adjectives, which TWO best describe how you feel about the recent events in the Arab World?
Worried Hopeful Proud Doubtful Uncertain Pleased Pessimistic

Note: Asked of half sample.
0
38
35
32
27
22
17
16
25 50 75 100
Palestinians not part of Arab Spring; concerns about instability

Now I'm going to read you a series of statements. After I read each statement, please tell me whether you agree or disagree.
Strongly disagree Strongly agree
The events in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere make me proud to be Arab. Palestinians are not really a part of the revolutions taking place in the Arab countries. The revolutions in the Arab World are taking attention away from the Palestinian cause. I worry that the revolutions in Arab countries will bring instability to the Palestinian territories.
11 23 57 33 47 59 63 58 31 29 19 34
5 13 14 11 34 20 14 8 12 35 33 35 43
60 74 41 64 47
88
The events in Tunisia and Egypt set powerful, positive examples for change in the Palestinian territories.
The revolutions in the Arab world offer new opportunities to Palestinians. The revolutions in the Arab world weaken Israel. The events in Libya and Syria set powerful, negative examples for change in the Palestinian territories.
17
100
75
50
25
25
50
75
100
The U.N. declaration of a Palestinian State
Broad but not intense support for seeking a U.N. resolution, especially in Gaza
Thinking about possible actions regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict:
Some Palestinian leaders, like Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, have voiced an intention to seek recognition of a Palestinian state from the United Nations soon, without a negotiated peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.
Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE seeking a UN resolution recognizing a declared Palestinian state without a peace agreement between the parties?
100
Strongly support resolution
Strongly oppose resolution
+32
75
+17
57
79
+62
64 40 32 17 12
Support
50
25
21 5
Oppose
7
Support
5
Oppose Support
6
Oppose
Total
West Bank
Gaza
Only 40 percent think U.N. action will bring independent state closer
Do you think a UN resolution recognizing a Palestinian state will bring the establishment of a truly independent Palestinian state closer, set back the establishment of a truly independent Palestinian state, or make no difference?
75
50
44 37
25
16
0
Bring the establishment of Set back the establishment an independent Palestinian of an independent state closer Palestinian state
Make no difference
Palestinians evenly divided on what U.N. recognition without negotiation will mean for a peace agreement with Israel
Please tell me whether agree with the first statement more or the second statement more, even if neither is exactly right.
Make agreement more likely, strongly 100 Make agreement less likely, strongly
+/-0
75 50 25 0
41
41
15
"If the UN General Assembly votes to recognize a Palestinian state it will help strengthen the position of the Palestinian Authority and make an agreement with Israel more likely."
19
"If the UN General Assembly votes to recognize a Palestinian state without any negotiations between Israel and Palestinians, it will make an agreement with Israel less likely."
Abbas: address jobs, health care, education and movement but not UN
Which TWO of the following are the highest priority for President Abbas in dealing with national questions facing the Palestinian people?
Create new jobs Expand healthcare services and solve water shortages Strengthen schools and education Get Israel to life roadblocks and ease movement Build up the Palestinian government and institutions to prepare for becoming a Palestinian state Increase security with Palestinians policing more areas Get the UN to recognize a Palestinian state Pursue peace negotiations with Israel Secure foreign aid to the Palestinians Reduce the corruption in the government Promote mass protests against Israel Note: Asked of half sample.
0 Percent of total population
83 36 23 23 18 7 4 2 2 2 1
25 50 75 100
The Palestinian status
Majority in West Bank see things going in the right direction Gaza much more pessimistic
Generally speaking, do you think that things in the West Bank/Gaza are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?
West Bank
Gaza
In Gaza, however, quality of life has increased while slipping in West Bank
And generally speaking, how would you say things are going for your family - would you say things are going very well, well, not too well, or not well at all?
Not well at all Very well
100
75
59 52
50
57 48 43
51
48
41
25
15 0
Well
7
Not Well
4
Well
7
Not Well
9
Well
11
Not well
11
Well
11
Not Well
Oct. 2010
July 2011
Oct. 2010
July 2011
West Bank
Gaza
Micro-financing, ease of movement, permits represent important economic moves

Which TWO would be the most help in creating more good jobs for Palestinians?
Percent of total population
Microfinance that can give seed money for starting new companies Getting Israel to lift more checkpoints so there is more freedom of movement Israel opening its borders and issuing work permits Investment in agriculture More foreign aid
44 34 34 26 21 11 9 8 6
0 25 50
Seminars and free training for local people to obtain hi-tech related jobs and start their own companies
Websites that will offer free ads on job openings A peace deal with Israel Egypt opening its borders and issuing work permits
After holding steady, Abbas approval has increased 10 points since October 2010
Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Mahmoud Abbas as President of the Palestinian Authority ?
Strongly approve Strongly disapprove
75
60 61
70
50
35 34 29
25
22 22
27 17 17 8
Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove
July 2009
October 2010
July 2011
Fayyad too has seen a growth in approval, though not quite as dramatic
Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Salam Fayyad as prime minister of the Palestinian Authority?
Oct. 2010
July 2011
Oct. 2010
July 2011
Approve
Disapprove
Disapproval of Hamas is Gaza has dramatically increased in recent months

Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Hamas in Gaza?
Strongly approve Strongly disapprove
75 58 50 38 42 25 23 0
Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve
67 56 40 29 31 20 12
Disapprove
23
July 2009
October 2010
July 2011
Note: Only of Gaza respondents. 2009 question asked in the Palestinian territories. July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 19
Feelings toward Iran fallen dramatically

Now, Id like you to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and countries, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person, country, or organization
100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100

Iran
Mean: 48.0
% cool (0-49 degrees)
% Warm (51-100 degrees)
Mean: 40.4
Mean: 19.2
42 34
36
12
55 77
Iran Iran
July 2009
October 2010
July 2011
Iran not friends of the Palestinian people has its own agenda
Iran is a friend, strongly 100 Iran has own agenda, strongly
+51
75
73
50
50
25
22 10
Iran and its president, Ahmadinejad, are friends of the Palestinian people. Iran and its president, Ahmadinejad, care about themselves and their own agenda.
But elements of Hamas charter find strong support except rejection of a peaceful solution
Next I will read some statements that come from the Hamas charter. For each statement please state whether you believe it or do not believe it.
Strongly Don't Believe Strongly Believe
For our struggle against the Jews is extremely wide-ranging and grave, so much so that it will need all the loyal efforts we can wield, to be followed by further steps and reinforced by successive battalions from the multifarious Arab and Islamic world, until the enemies are defeated and Allah's victory prevails. The Day of Judgment will not come about until Muslims fight the Jews, when the Jew will hide behind stones and trees. The stones and trees will say O Muslims, O Abdulla, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him. Only the Gharkad tree, would not do that because it is one of the trees of the Jews. When our enemies usurp some Islamic lands, Jihad becomes a duty binding on all Muslims. In order to face the usurpation of Palestine by the Jews, we have no escape from raising the banner of Jihad. We must spread the spirit of Jihad among the (Islamic) Umma, clash with the enemies and join the ranks of the Jihad fighters.
17
3 34
80
22
42
73
31
7 27
62
Peace initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the international conferences to resolve the Palestinian problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic Resistance Movement. There is no solution to the Palestinian problem except by Jihad.
75
48
16 18
45
50
25
25
50
75
100
Strong support for reconciliation, and belief that it serves the national interest
Thinking of the recent agreement between Hamas and Fatah, do you believe it serves the Palestinian national interest right now or does not serve the Palestinian national interest right now?
100
Serves interest Does not serve interest
Personally, do you support the recent agreement between Hamas and Fatah?
100
Strongly support
Strongly oppose
81
75 75
67
50 50
25
25
27
17 6
14
0
Serves interest Does not serve interest
0
Support
Oppose
Few now expect a Hamas takeover

Statement One: When a Palestinian state is created, Fatah will be able to govern it.
Fatah will govern, strongly 100
Statement Two: When a Palestinian state is created Hamas will take over and lead it.
Hamas will take over, strongly
+17
75
+42
52
50
55 35
25
33
20
38
13
11
Fatah will govern Hamas will take over
0 Fatah will govern Hamas will take over
October 2010
July 2011
Enthusiasm for voting increases dramatically in wake of reconciliation

Thinking about the next Palestinian Authority elections, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you are certain to vote and 1 means you are certain not to vote? You can choose any number from 1 to 10.
DK 1-4: Not enthusiastic 5: In the middle 6-9: Enthusiastic 10: Very
Page 25 | November 2010
Total 6-10
2011
12
6 23
30 10 35 14 37
51 24 42 41 67 8
81 61
78 49 87
All Palestinians
2010
2011
15
7 31
West Bank
2010 2011
7 4 12 2
0
20 28
25 50
Gaza
2010
52
75 100
80
Were elections held today, Fatah clearly dominates across territories

First Bar = All Palestinians Second Bar = West Bank Third Bar = Gaza
50
I know the election is a long way away, but if parliamentary elections were held today, for whom would you vote if the parties were
46
47
46
25
20 17 15 5
0 Fatah Change/Reform (Hamas)
19 16 13 3 2
Third Way Other
In West Bank, sharp decline for Hamas, strengthening of Fatah, other parties since Oct.
I know the election is a long way away, but if parliamentary elections were held today, for whom would you vote if the parties were First Bar = July 2009 Second Bar: October 2010 Third Bar = July 2011
50
50 45 47
25
28
28
15 5
0 Fatah Change/Reform (Hamas) Third Way
15 4 2
16 13
Other
Hamas also drops in Gaza

I know the election is a long way away, but if parliamentary elections were held today, for whom would you vote if the parties were First Bar = July 2009 Second Bar: October 2010 Third Bar = July 2011
50
44
46
33
25
30 27 20 5 2 2
Third Way Other
19 12 14
0 Fatah Change/Reform (Hamas)
Views of Israel and its stance on peace
A strong majority believe that now is the time for diplomatic engagement, not violence
Statement One: This is a time for violent resistance against Israel.
100 Violent resistence, strongly 75 Diplomatic engagement, strongly
Statement Two: This is the time for diplomatic engagement with Israel.
+35
65
+41
69
+27
59
50
30
25
28 34 34 12
Diplomatic Engagement Violent Resistance Diplomatic Engagement
32 35 18
Violent Resistance Diplomatic Engagement
14
0 Violent Resistance
Total
West Bank
Gaza
Those supporting violent resistance are less educated, lower income, more religious than those who supporting diplomatic engagement
100 Of those who support violent resistance
Of those who support diplomatic engagement
75
75 65
50
77 66
65 51 50
71
71 57 36 6
62
25
30
0
Percent of total Percent Male Percent under 35 Percent less educated Percent low incom e Percent attend w eekly Friday prayers Percent ID Ham as
The 30 percent who believe this time for violent resistance are doing somewhat better, and more likely to vote Hamas in next election
100 Of those who support violent resistance
75
81 65 60 51 37 30 7 62 53
79 56 48 35
75
50
25
0
Percent of total Percent family Percent highest doing well priority: jobs Percent vote Hamas Percent Percent accept Percent believe approve Abbas 2-state peace possible
Television top source of news in times of crisis

In times of developing crisis, would you say you get more of your information from television, radio, newspaper, Facebook or other internet sites?
Of those who support violent resistance Of those who support diplomatic engagement
Television
15 9 2 1
73 79
Radio
Internet
Facebook
3 3
7 7
Newspaper
0
None
2
0 25 50 75 100
Very little difference in media habit among those supporting violent resistance/diplomatic engagement
Do you
Of those w ho support violent resistance Of those w ho support diplom atic engagem ent
Have access to a reliable internet connection, through either your home, work, or mobile phone
70 71 59
Have a Facebook account?
61 57
Watch videos on YouTube?
54 17
Have a Twitter account?
14 12
Visit Israeli websites?
14
0 25 50 75 100
Top television channels do differ between the ideologies

Generally, which television stations do you watch most to get information about international issues?
Of those who support violent resistance
Al-Jazeera Al-Arabya Pal. Braodcasting Corp. Al-Aqsa Al Manar Al-Arabya Al-Jazeera
59 52 47 39 38 72 58 56 16 12
0 25 50 75 100
Supporting Violent Resistance
Supporting Diplomatic Engagement
Pal. Braodcasting Corp. Al Manar Al-Aqsa
Disbelieve that Netanyahu is serious about wanting peace, supporting a solution

Netanyahu serious, strongly 100 Netanyahu not serious, strongly
+69
75
81
50
59
25
12 4
"Prime Minister Netanyahu is serious about wanting peace and supporting a two-state solution." "Prime Minister Netanyahu isn't really serious about wanting peace and supporting a two state solution."
Netanyahu plan: majority favor negotiating, not boycotting

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently said that he is open to a plan that would create a Palestinian state using pieces of biblical Israel, but that he would not consider any plan that divides Jerusalem and that Palestinian refugees should settle in Palestine, not Israel. Should the Palestinian Authority go to the negotiating table with these parameters, or should they continue to boycott negotiations?
100 75 Negotiate, strongly Continue to boycott, strongly
+9
52
50 25 0
+6
51 43 53 45
+13
40
12
Go to negotiating table
16
Continue to boycott
12
14
Continue to boycott
11
19
Continue to boycott
Total
West Bank
Gaza
Personal harm from settlement expansion seen significantly more in Gaza than West Bank
Statement One: Israeli settlement expansion harms me personally.
Harms me personally, seriously 100
Statement Two: Israeli settlement expansion is a bad thing but it does not harm me personally.
Not harm me personally, seriously
+6
75
+20
60
76
+55
52
50
46 40
57 21
25
34 23 22
Harms me personally
28 13
0
Harms me personally Bad, but does not harm me personally Bad, but does not harm me personally Harms me personally
Bad, but does not harm me personally
Total
West Bank
Gaza
Jerusalem should be capital of a Palestinian state

If the Palestinians were to be given their own state, which of the following best describes what you think should happen to Jerusalem. Should it be
100
92
75
50
25
1
0 The capital of Palestine
4
A neutral, international city
0
Not the capital of either Israel or Palestine
The capital of Israel The capital of both Israel and Palestine
Obama proposal
Only a quarter trust US to advance Palestinian interests

How much can Palestinians trust the United States and President Barack Obama to help advance the interests of the Palestinian people? Would you say that they can trust the US and President Barack Obama A LOT, some, just a little, or NOT AT ALL?
A lot 100 Hardly at all
+44
75
71
50
50 27
25
A lot/Some
Just a Little/Hardly at all

But a majority favors two-state solution with Obamas border parameters: 1967 with swaps
U.S. President Barack Obama recently announced principles that should be a foundation for any peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. He said the border between Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually-agreed swaps of land to take account of realities on the ground so both sides can achieve a secure and just peace. Would you favor or oppose a two-state solution with these borders?
100 Strongly support 75 Strongly oppose
+17
57
50
40
25
5
Support two-state solution with Obama parameters
5
Oppose two-state solution with Obama parameters
But one third support formulation of homelands for two peoples

President Obama said there should be two states: Palestine as the homeland for the Palestinian people and Israel as the homeland of the Jewish people. Do YOU accept or reject that concept?
Accept Reject
100
100
President Obama said there should be two states: Palestine as the homeland for the Palestinian people and Israel as the homeland of the Jewish people. Do you think PALESTINIAN LEADERS should accept or reject that concept?
Accept Reject
75
75
61
50 50
63
25
34
25
31
0
Accept Reject
0
Accept Reject
The peace process and two-state solution
Feelings towards different solution types

Now, Id like you to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and countries, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person, country, or organization
% Warm (51-100) 100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 -75 -100

Mean: 19.1
% Cool (0-49)
Mean: 33.9 Mean: 59.4
51 15 73 23 27 60
Two-state solution with independent Palestinian state sideby-side with Israel as a Jewish state
Two-state solution
A one-state solution
This represents a huge drop in acceptance of a two-state solution

Statement One: I will accept a two-state solution.
Accept two-state, strongly 100
Statement Two: I will not accept a twostate solution.

Will not accept two-state, strongly
+24
75
+8
60 36 44
52
50
25
28
23
0
18
14
Accept two-state solution Will not accept two-state Accept two-state solution Will not accept two-state solution solution
October 2010
July 2011
Palestinians uncertain about Israels existence as a Jewish state in 25 years

Statement One: I am certain Israel will exist 25 years from now as a Jewish state with a Jewish majority.
100 Israel will exist, strongly 75 Not certain Israel will exist, strongly
Statement Two: I am not so certain that Israel will exist 25 years from now as a Jewish state with a Jewish majority..
+22
+13
+40
63 56 53 40 23
50
34
25
27 12
Israel will exist
13
Not Certain
13
Israel will exist
5
Not Certain
11
Israel will exist Not Certain
Total
West Bank
Gaza
Real goal is to move to one Palestinian state

Statement One: The best goal is for a two-state solution that keeps two states living side by side.
Two-state solution side by side, strongly 100
Statement Two: The real goal should be to start with two states but then move to it all being one Palestinian state.
Move to one Palestinian state, strongly
+30
75
+27
60
52 25
50
30
25
30
12
Two-state solution, side by side Move to one Palestinian state
12
Two-state solution, side by side
22
Move to one Palestinian state
October 2010
July 2011
Two-thirds believe that the real goal should be to move beyond a two-state solution to a single Palestinian state
Accept two-state solution, strongly 100 Move to all one Palestinian state, strongly
+36
75
66
50
30
25
16
0
32
"I can accept permanently a two-state "The real goal should to start with a two solution with one a homeland for the state solution but then move to it all being Palestinian people living side-by-side with one Palestinian state." Israel, a homeland for the Jewish people."
What will be the role of Islam?
Palestinians view Turkey as too secular, dont want to see state go that route
Like Turkey, strongly 100
Not like Turkey, strongly
+43
75
69
50
26
25
45
16
0
I want to see a Palestinian state end up similar to a Muslim country like Turkey.
I don't want to see a Palestinian state end up like Turkey because it is too secular and Islam has too little influence there.
Plurality prefer a Palestinian state run by Civil Law; Sharia preference driven by Gaza
Statement One: A Palestinian state should be run by Sharia Law.
100 Sharia Law, strongly Civil Law, strongly
Statement Two: A Palestinian state should be run by Civil Law.
75
+17
+39
+25
53
50
56
46 29 40 23 14 25 7
Run by Sharia Run by Civil Run by Sharia Run by Civil Run by Sharia Run by Civil
31
25
18
0
18
Total
West Bank
Gaza
Plurality believe that Sharia can co-exist with civil law

Which ONE of the following statements best describes your personal attitude toward Sharia Law?
75
Sharia has no place in civil society Following Sharia is a personal religious choice made by individuals and not the state Sharia can co-exist with civil law by overseeing family and religious matters for Muslim members of society Sharia can co-exist with civil law by overseeing family and religious matters for everyone Sharia should oversee all aspects of society but should cede ultimate authority to democratic rule of law Sharia should be the only rule of law
50
42 33
44 38 28 38 33 19
25
23 8
0
No Sharia Co-exist Strong Sharia
24 7
No Sharia Co-exist
11 10
Strong Sharia
22
24
10
No Sharia
Co-exist
Strong Sharia
Total
West Bank
Gaza
January 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 53
Opposition to gender discrimination, arranged marriages

Next I will read a list of things some people believe. For each one, please tell me if you agree or disagree
Not well at all
Total
Very Well
59 61 54 77 82 69 73 80 62 50 58 35 39 43 32
23 22 24
10 5 18 5 3 8 6 2 14 21 17 29 25 18
40 38 43
Women and men should never touch in public
WB
Gaza
Total
Women should not be allowed to drive a car
WB
Gaza
Total
Parents ought to choose their children's future spouses.
WB
Gaza
37
100
75
50
25
25
50
75
100
Homosexuality should be discouraged by society and punished by law

Accepted, strongly Discouraged, strongly Punished, strongly Not punished, strongly
100
100
+66
75
81
75
82
+68
74
50 50
68
25
15 5
Homosexuality is a way of life that should be accepted by society. Homosexuality is a way of life that should be discouraged by society.
25
14 8
Homosexuality should be punished by law. Homosexuality should not be punished by law.
Third intifada aversion to violent strategies
Majority of Palestinians do not believe there will be a third intifada

Some Palestinians have called for a Third Intifada. Do you believe a Third Intifada will occur or not occur in the near future?
Will occur 100
Will not occur
+24
75
+35
+5
50
55 31
61 38 26 43
25
0
Will occur Will not occur Will occur Will not occur Will occur Will not occur
Total
West Bank
Gaza
Majority of Palestinians would oppose a third intifada

Would you support or oppose a third intifada?
100
Strongly support
Strongly Oppose
75
+32
64
+43
70
+13
55
50
42 32 34 27 33 16 3
Oppose Support Oppose Support Oppose
25
34
7
Support
Total
West Bank
Gaza
Nakba: majority says made no difference or hurt

Now thinking of the Palestinian protests late last month, around the Nakba, and in early June. Do you believe those protests helped the Palestinian cause, hurt the Palestinian cause, or made no difference?
Helped 100 Hurt Made no difference
57
75
50
47 40
25
10 Helped Hurt Made no difference

Crossing border from Syria into Golan a good way to express grievances
Being used by Assad, strongly 100 Expressing their grievances, strongly
+34
75
54
50
25
20 9
"The Palestinians crossing the border in mass from Syria into the Golan were really just being using by President Assad to deflect attention from his problems."
38
"The Palestinians crossing the border in mass from Syria into Golan were a good way for Palestinians to express their grievances and helped the cause."
Extremist actions and pulling back
Denying Jewish presence and honoring martyrs right but not firing rockets at civilians
Now I am going to read you a series of statements. For each one, please tell me whether you think it is right or wrong.
Wrong Right
Denying that Jews have a long history in Jerusalem going back thousands of years. The kidnapping of Israeli soldiers by Palestinian groups and holding them hostage Naming streets after Palestinian suicide bombers like Dalal al Mughrabi who killed civilians in Israel Teaching songs and chants in Palestinian schools that talk about hating the Jews. The killings in Itamar Firing rockets at Israeli cities and citizens. The Israeli economic blockade of the Gaza strip because of rockets being fired into Israel. Israeli firing rockets at armed fighters who are operating from civilian areas Denying that Palestinians have a long history in Jerusalem going back thousands of years. The Israeli armed response to the boats carrying supplies to the Gaza strip in May 2010 Note: All are asked of half sample.
19 27 27 34 42 59 84 84 90 91
100 75 50 25
72 62 61 53 29 22 14 8 7 7
0 25 50 75 100
Those believing Itamar killings are right are young; those thinking it wrong are less educated and significantly lower income
Now I am going to read you a series of statements. For each one, please tell me whether you think it is right or wrong the killings in Itamar.
Percent of those who think killings in Itamar RIGHT Percent of those who think killings in Itamar WRONG
100
75
77 70 60 42 47 46 66 64
82 58
50
56
25
29 17 13
0
Percent of total Percent Male Percent under 35 Percent less educated Percent low incom e Percent attend w eekly Friday prayers Percent ID Ham as
Note: Asked of half sample. July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 63
The 30 percent who see Itamar killings right are less likely to accept two-state solution, slightly more likely to vote Fatah in next election
Now I am going to read you a series of statements. For each one, please tell me whether you think it is right or wrong the killings in Itamar.
Of those who think killings in Itamar RIGHT Of those who think killings in Itamar WRONG
75
77 71 61
59
50
56
44
42
25
No difference support for violent over diplomatic engagement
55
29
26
26
29
Percent of total
Percent warm to Fatah
Percent vote Fatah in next election
Percent support violent resistence
Percent accept 2-state
Percent believe peace possible
Note: Asked of half sample. July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 64
Top television channels do differ between the ideologies, particularly Al-Jazeera

Percent of those think killings in Itamar RIGHT Percent of those think killings in Itamar WRONG
Al-Arabya Al-Jazeera Pal. Braodcasting Corp. Al-Aqsa Al Manar Al-Arabya Al-Jazeera
67 63 54 18 16 67 51 57 23 19
0 25 50 75 100
Killings in Itamar RIGHT
Killings in Itamar WRONG
Pal. Braodcasting Corp. Al Manar Al-Aqsa
Majorities favor the kidnapping of Shalit, oppose his release

Do you favor or oppose the kidnaping of the Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit?
100
Favor Oppose
Do you favor or oppose the release of the Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit?
100
Favor Oppose
75
75
50
56
50
51 34
25
29
25
0
Favor Oppose
0
Favor Oppose
Things Palestinians can do for peace

Now I'd like to read you a list of actions that PALESTINIANS might take as steps toward making peace. After each, please tell me how important that step would be - would it be very important, somewhat important, just a little important, or not at all important toward making peace? Very important
Official education curriculum teaching children the benefits of peace and co-existence Ending the call for the killing of civilians Hamas renouncing terrorism
39 44 29 24 20 25 20
0 25
75 72 64 55 53 48 42
50 75 100
Pressuring Hamas to release Israeli solider Gilad Shalit
Hamas agreeing to disarm Pressuring Hamas to end rocket fire from Gaza Ending the practice of naming of streets and squares after martyrs who killed civilians
Map, recognition, Israeli governance of Jerusalem rated extremely low

Now I'd like to read you a list of actions that Israel might take as steps toward making peace. After each, please tell me how important that step would be - would it be very important, somewhat important, just a little important, or not at all important toward making peace? Very important
Agree to land swaps for Israel to keep major settlement blocks in exchange for other land
24
Recognize Israel as the Nation State of the Jewish people
17
Agree to let Israel continue to govern Jerusalem so long as Muslims can continue to live and pray there.
16
Allow settlers who want to stay and become citizens of Palestine to do so
15
Depicting Israel on a map of the region in schoolbooks and official documents to show it exists
2 7
25
50
75
Media use web a key tool for Palestinians
Television top source of news in times of crisis

In times of developing crisis, would you say you get more of your information from television, radio, newspaper, Facebook or other internet sites?
West Bank Gaza
Television Radio
7 17
80 71
Internet
5 3 3
Facebook
Newspaper
0 0
None
0
4
25 50 75 100
Al-Arabya replaces Al-Jazeera; Al-Jazeera, Palestinian Broadcasting Corp round out top 3
(Al-Arabya) (Al-Jazeera) (Palestinian Broadcasting Corporation) (Al Manar) (Al-Aqsa TV) (LBC) (BBC Arabic) (Al Hurra) (The BBC) (Al-Quds Educational TV) (Israeli TV Channel 1/2/10) (CNN) (RT) (Nile News) (Other stations) 0 2 1 9 0 3 25 50 75 100 5 17 3 3 11 2 6 7 9 11 6 12 8 15 15 32 18 23 23 41 56 61 56 59 70
West Bank Gaza
Al-Quds, Al-Ayyam reach the most Palestinian readers; Gaza less likely to look to print for news
Generally, which newspapers/magazines do you read to get information about international issues?
(Al-Quds) (Al-Ayyam) (Al-Hayat Al-Jadidah) (Al-Hayat) (Falasteen) (Al Manar) (Wafa News Agency) (Free Palestine) (Local newspapers) (Other) (None) 0 1 5 2 5 25 0 5 52 25 50 75 100 2 21 4 11 6 7 55 25 57 21 19 11 22 4
West Bank Gaza
Radio Tariq Al Mahabek, Radio Ajyal top in West Bank; Gaza looks local especially to Gaza FM
Generally, which radio stations do you listen to for information about international issues?
(Radio Tariq Al Mahabeh) (Radio Ajyal) (Local stations) (Gaza FM) (Holy Quran Radio) (Radio Sawa) (BBC Arabic) (Angham Radio) (Voice of America) (Birzeit Outland) Other None 0 3 17 25 50 75 100 2 7 2 4 22 13 4 7 13 18 14 1 50 16 22 23 61 6 43 13 21 40
West Bank Gaza
Do you
% Yes: Total
Have access to a reliable internet connection, through either your home, work, or mobile phone
% Yes: West Bank
% Yes: Gaza
70 72 52 59
Have a Facebook account?
70
40 11
Visit Israeli websites?
10 12
54
Watch videos on YouTube?
68
28 15
Have a Twitter account?
13 19
15
30
45
60
75
Facebook use is high

(If they have Facebook) How often would you say you log into your Facebook Account? Do you have a Facebook account or not?
(If they have Facebook) And how often would you say you update your Facebook page?
63 64 60
26 24
30 11 11 9
Daily or More
Monthly or More Less than Once a Month
Twitter use not as pervasive, but those who use in Gaza, use often
(If they have Twitter) How often would you say you post to your Twitter account?
68
Do you have a Twitter account?
Yes 15%
48 32
33 36 28
20
32
4
Daily or More Monthly or More Less than Once a Month
West Bank Gaza
Total
No 85%
52
(If they have Twitter) And how often would you say you read your Twitter feed?
78
33 24
38 29 17 23 5
Daily or More
Monthly or More Less than Once a Month
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Arab Spring and Frozen Peace

Palestinian Opinion, Summer 2011

Margin of Error: 3.1% at 95% confidence

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 2

The Arab Spring and the Palestinians

Arab Spring reactions divided and uncertain

Worried Hopeful Proud Doubtful Uncertain Pleased Pessimistic

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 6

Palestinians not part of Arab Spring; concerns about instability

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 7

The U.N. declaration of a Palestinian State

Strongly support resolution

Strongly oppose resolution

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 9

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 10

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 12

The Palestinian status

Micro-financing, ease of movement, permits represent important economic moves

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 16

Disapproval of Hamas is Gaza has dramatically increased in recent months

Feelings toward Iran fallen dramatically

100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100

% cool (0-49 degrees)

% Warm (51-100 degrees)

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 20

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 22

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 23

Few now expect a Hamas takeover

0 Fatah will govern Hamas will take over

Enthusiasm for voting increases dramatically in wake of reconciliation

Page 25 | November 2010

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 25

Were elections held today, Fatah clearly dominates across territories

Page 26 | November 2010

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 26

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 27

Hamas also drops in Gaza

0 Fatah Change/Reform (Hamas)

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 28

Views of Israel and its stance on peace

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 30

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 31

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 32

Television top source of news in times of crisis

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 33

Have a Facebook account?

Watch videos on YouTube?

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 34

Top television channels do differ between the ideologies

Of those who support diplomatic engagement

Supporting Violent Resistance

Supporting Diplomatic Engagement

Pal. Braodcasting Corp. Al Manar Al-Aqsa

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 35

Disbelieve that Netanyahu is serious about wanting peace, supporting a solution

Netanyahu plan: majority favor negotiating, not boycotting

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 37

Bad, but does not harm me personally

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 38

Jerusalem should be capital of a Palestinian state

The capital of Israel The capital of both Israel and Palestine

July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 39