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04

Decision making

Alternatives Solution
Problem Solving

Concept
Planning
Organizing
Leading

Controlling

Decision

Situation

Anthony
Concept
Row Data Processing

For

Information

Decision-Making

H
M
L

1. 2.
5. 6.

3.
7.

4.
8.
1

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04

V.S. Programming V.S. Non-programming

Concept
H

Non-programming

Programming

NOTE1
NOTE2 CEO V.S. Executive Group
1.
12
3
2.
1
2
3
4 Dispersion of Responsibility
5
NOTE1 (Groupthink; Janis)
(Group Norms)
Social Pressure (Opinion Leader)
Conformity
NOTE2 Devils Advocate

3.
1 Brainstorming; Alex Osborn
Creativity of group

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04

4 Free Rider

2 Nominal Group Technique


Step1
Step2
Step3.
Step4.
Step5.
3 Delphi Technique
Technological Forecasting
Step1
Step2
Step3
Step4 Step23
Step5
4 Devils Advocate

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04


Concept Decision Making Problem Solving

Identify Problem

Identify Criteria

Allocate Weight

Develop Alternative

Evaluating Decision
Effectiveness

Implementing
Alternative

Selecting
Alternative

Analyzing Alternative


Rational Decision making

Max. (Utility)
U=f(x,y)

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Criteria
Weight
Problem

Selecting

Alternative

Analyzing

Bounded\ Limited Rational; Simon

Optimal Solution
Satisfying Solution

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04

1.

2.

3.

4.

8.

7.

6.

5.

Incrementalism Decision; Lindblom

Dynamic Process

Mixed Scanning Model; Etizon


Mixed Scanning=Rational Decision + Incrementalism Decision

Organizational Model

Political Model

Negotiations Coalition

Open System Model

ConceptIdea Assumption

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04

Facts
Inferences
Experience
Intuition

OR
Break even Point
TR;TC;R

TR
TC
TR=TC
Break even
P.Q=FC=VC.Q
Q*=FC/P-VC
FC
BEP Q*

Game Theory
1.Conflict Competition

2.
1 Zero-sum Game
Fixed Pie
2 Non-zero Game

3.
1
2
4.
1
2
3
4
CASE

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04

Network Analysis
Program Evaluation Review Technique PERT& Critical Path Method CPM
1.
2.
E 17
F2
A5

B4

C3
H2

G3
D5
J1

I4

1 Arrow & Note


2A B B A
BE
3 Path1: ABCD
17
Path2: AEFGD
Path3: ABHIJ

22
16

4 Critical PathPath1

Slack Time

NOTE PERT CPM Gantt Chart


VS
PERT

a + 4b + c

6
a
b
c
Simulation
Monte Carlo Technique
Manipulate

Queuing Line

Linear Programming; LP

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1.
2.
3.
4.
Robbins
1.
2.Magic 7
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.Sunk Cost
8. Escalation of Commitment

NOTE Availability Heuristic VS Representative Heuristic


VS

Concept

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04

Certainty
1.
EXInventory Control

2.OR
Risk
1.

80%
20%

+800
-500

640
-100

540

60%
40%

+1000
-800

600
-320

280

2. Decision Tree
Uncertainty
1.

2. Payoff Matrix

A1
A2
A3

S1

5,000
3,000
1,000

S2

200,000
150,000
100,000

-20,000
20,000
60,000

Situation Alternative A1 5000


200000 20000
3.
1 Optimism Criterion

A1
A2
A3

5,000
3,000
1,000

S1

S2

200,000
150,000
100,000

-20,000
20,000
60,000
9

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A1

Maximax

04

2 Pessimism Criterion

A1
A2
A3

S1

S2

200,000
150,000
100,000

-20,000
20,000
60,000

5,000
3,000
1,000

A3

Maximin

3 Equal Likely Criterion Laplace Criterion

A1=(200,000*0.5)+(-20,000*0.5)=90,000
A2=80,000
A3=80,000
A1 0.5
4 Realism Criterion Hurwitz Criterion

1-
0.7 1-0.3
A1=(200,000+0.7)+(-20,000)*0.3=134,000
A2=111,000
A3=88,000
A1
5 Opportunity Criterion
Pay off Matrix Opportunity Loss Table

A1
A2
A3

S1

S2

0
50,000
100,000

80,000
40,000
0

80,000
50,000
100,000

A2
Minimax

10

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04


1. ,[the S][(+of)]2. (
)[C]3. ()[U]
1. 2. ; 3.

Alternative

n.

Dispersion

n.

Conformity

n.

Advocate

n.

1. ;[(+to/with)]
2. ;;[(+to/with)]
1. ;[(+of)]2. ;

Criteria

n.

(criterion )

Coalition

n.

Inferences

n.

Intuition

n.

Queue

vi.

1. ,[U]
2. ()[C]
1. ,[U]
2. ;()[C]
1. (),[U]2. ;
[C][+that]3. [U]
;

Escalation

n.

;[U][C]

Heuristic

n.

Optimism

n.

;[U]

Criterion

n.

(),,

Pessimism

n.

1. , 2. ,

11

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