1.

Following discussion weve had over the summer, I thought it might be useful to set out some thoughts about what appears to be a sharp shift to the right from Cameron and the challenge that presents us as an opposition. Like First World War generals, we must avoid making all our preparations for the last battle rather than the next. Indeed, the very terrain on which we will fight is changing. At the last election we faced a Conservative party (and a Conservative leader in David Cameron) whose strategic goal was to decontaminate their brand, intending to present themselves as reformed, modern, centrist and pragmatic. Re-positioning on issues like the NHS and the environment was used as evidence of the emergence of a compassionate Conservatism - a phrase first used by George W Bush prior to his election as president. Cameron was effective in promoting a perception his Party had changed. The media readily and willfully for the most part embraced the illusion. The press, which had been successfully courted, helped him make the case to the public that his Party had changed and was becoming more progressive. However, the public never fully bought the new brand or accepted that the Tories had changed. This is best evidenced by Camerons failure, in spite of so much else going his way, to secure an overall majority. Of course, in discussing how we frame our message on the Conservatives, it is important that anything we say is credible. We should not ignore there has been limited change on issues such as their attitude to gay rights and an attempt to embrace other aspects of a progressive social liberal agenda. But here is the paradox: Whilst the Tories made changes before the election - intended to convince the public they were compassionate - since the election (and especially in the last few months ) the Tories have taken major strides back towards their ideological roots. Buffeted by events, there is a growing incoherence between liberal Conservatism and the increasingly shrill language the Tories are using as they vacate the centreground.

1.) Analysis of Tory Party policy, carried out over the summer , convincingly demonstrates the Conservatives are shifting to a distinctly right-wing strategy in both their chosen focus on issues and their solutions. The lurch in issue focus is especially marked when comparing pre-election-Cameron with post-election-Cameron. Camerons early top issue identifiers were: a) NHS,

b) c)

family, environment.

Post-election they are: a) deficit, b) welfare, c) immigration. We should be in no doubt that the issue focus of the government and the issue-focus on which they are trying to shape the forthcoming is being shifted significantly to the right of the political spectrum. Indeed, across the board the partys policy analysis shows that policy direction has also moved rapidly rightwards: a) A deficit reduction programme which they describe as tough, painful medicine b) Micro-economic strategy based less on investment and more on de-regulation c) Welfare cuts which go way beyond back to work reform and hit working families d) immigration capping

2) The shift to the right and the abandonment of a centrist strategy is seen in their second order policy choices as well. i) An increasingly aggressive and confrontational attitude towards public sector workers on pensions and pay. ii) The NHS plan and the extent to which their reforms rely on competition and an internal market iii) The dramatic rise in tuition fees and the pursuit of a free market in education Despite failing to win the last election and being forced into a coalition with the Lib Dems, Conservative policy and political strategy in government is markedly to the right of where it was in opposition.

3) The Conservative response to major events is further evidence of a right-wing drift. Their answer to slow growth is talk of scrapping employment rights

- The response to the riots was a clumsy call for policing methods never seen before on mainland Britain ( batton rounds and water cannon) and a likely softening of support for sentencing reform - The response to the crisis in the euro-zone has been to talk openly about a twospeed or two-tier Europe (which would relegate us to an increasingly sceptical and marginalised position).

4) Cameron clearly recognises some of the danger he faces in his repositioning. He is still seeking to separate himself out from a toxic Tory brand and has assumed a Presidential role and style. But the Tories have become far less worried about inhabiting the centreground they once cultivated and more worried about any perception of appearing weak. They do not appear to be seeking long-term solutions to Britains real challenges and problems and Cameron himself now appears to be a recognisably right wing Prime Minister. .

5) There are big opportunities for Labour in the Tory change of strategy. And there are also significant political risks if Labour fails to handle the change with alacrity, strength, credibility and sensitivity. a ) The public are gravely anxious about the future of young people. Where will future opportunity come from? How will young people get on? Camerons new position affords him very little to say either about widening opportunity or realising the aspirations of most families in Britain for their children and for themselves. b ) There is growing concern that the governments economic approach risks leaving many people behind . The Tories tough but necessary rhetoric has given them no route into a language of investment in the future, either in local regions or local economies. c ) On public services the Lansley/Gove/Willets focus on markets and technical changes is proving very distant from peoples aspirations from their local services. Polling shows that the Tories are no longer at parity on the NHS and education but instead significantly behind, thereby suggesting the decontamination of the Conservatives on public services has almost entirely unwound within a year of taking entering government. d ) Police cuts are badly undermining any hope the Conservatives have of claiming the centre-ground of tough on crime and tough on its causes.