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Low WPI benefits from low manufacturing inflation (3.6%) and government preventing a pass through of high international crude prices. CPI too coming off and will continue to come down further with waning of festival season demand and improvements in supply conditions
Source: Bloomberg
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Moderation in IIP growth led by slowdown in interest rate sensitive sectors. Capacity addition and improvement in infrastructure will reduce inflationary pressures
Source: Bloomberg
Sep-07
Credit growth slowed to 22% from 30% last year and lower than the deposit growth which has increased to 24%. Deceleration in accumulation of forex reserves and slowing credit growth will gradually bring down M3 growth
Source: Bloomberg
Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07
0.08
0.80
0.06
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Global financial turmoil has resulted in forex inflows turning uncertain. After withdrawing Rs. 15000 cr. with the CRR hike RBI adds an amount more than that thru Monetary Stabilisation Scheme (MSS) withdrawals. Open Market Operations (OMO) purchases by RBI also help in reducing the supply overhang of G Secs.
Source: Bloomberg
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Brendt Crude
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Oil still above $ 90 per barrel, global agricultural commodity prices still high. Strong revenue growth will enable government to take fiscal steps to control primary article inflation. RBI is mindful of potential inflationary pressures.
Source: Bloomberg
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Expectations
Over the longer term interest rates nearing peak of the cycle. 10-Yr G-Sec to be in the range of 7.40% to 7.80% Credit spreads to narrow further. Expectations of any rate cut in January premature. RBI likely to indicate neutral stance in the coming monetary policy.
Our Recommendation Kotak Bond short Term with a time horizon of over 3 months
Performance
Since Allotment 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year (May 2, 2002) 2.27 5.21 9.15 6.78 Kotak Bond Short Term Plan 1.99 4.29 7.98 5.77 Crisil Short Term bond Index
Returns (%) are as on Dec 31, 2007. Returns less than one year are absolute and over one year are Compounded annualised (CAGR).Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.Please read the offer document before investing.
Issuer / Instrument Debt Instruments Debentures and Bonds Corporate Debt / Financial Institutions LIC Housing Finance Ltd. TAS Trust Series III, TM L Fin. Ser. A1 Indian Retail ABS Trust Series 56 PTC A2 Infrastruture Leasing & Financial Services Limited Corporate Debt / Financial Institutions - Total Public S ector Undertakings Punjab National Bank State Bank Of India. Public S ector Undertakings - Total Government Dated S ecurities 8.33% Government Stock - 2036 7.99% Government Stock - 2017 8.13% Government Stock - 2021 Government Dated S ecurities - Total Money Market Instruments Commercial Paper (CP)/Certificate of Deposits (CD) Corporate Debt / Financial Institutions Unitech Ltd. Corporate Debt / Financial Institutions - Total
High credit quality portfolio with about 32% of the net assets in Govt. stocks and 34% in AAA rated paper.
Average maturity of 10.61 years to yield benefit from any potential softening in interest rates over medium to long term.
AAA AAA
F1+(ind)
6.06% 6.06%
15.11% 100.00%
P1+ AAA LAA+ CARE AAA F1+(ind)(SO) LAA+ AAA AAA AA+ F1+(ind)(SO) AAA(so) AAA AA(ind)(SO) AAA P1+(so) AAA(so)
4.45% 3.28% 3.24% 2.19% 2.17% 2.13% 2.13% 2.12% 1.91% 1.60% 1.39% 1.14% 1.08% 1.06% 0.98% 0.31% 31.18% 3.31% 2.28% 5.59% 2.19% 2.09% 4.28%
6.05% 5.21% 4.86% 3.05% 2.07% 1.71% 1.07% 1.04% 1.01% 26.07%
AAA AAA
Public Sector Undertakings State Bank of Travancore Allahabad Bank Punjab National Bank Canara Bank Union Bank of India State Bank Of India. State Bank of Indore National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development Collateral Borrowing & Lending obligation Net Current Assets/(Liabilites) Grand Total
SOV SOV
7.26% 5.33% 5.26% 3.20% 2.09% 1.04% 1.04% 1.02% 26.24% 0.22% 6.42% 100.00%
Credit
Credit risk analysis by the credit committee Analysis of different rating category universe Compare against benchmark ratios Quarterly result analysis of the companies
Meetings with company management at least once a year for updates
Liquidity
Regular monitoring of Liquidity
Liquidity managed as per interest rate view and investment objective
Duration
Emphasis on modified duration in a way that best fits the investment objective
Investment Strategy
Quality Assets with evaluation of the yield curve, modified duration, the total volume traded etc. DEBT Market
Economy & Market close assessment of the macro economic factors such as money supply, deposit growth etc. and the market factors such as policy risk, money flow etc..
Risk Management
Liquidity Risk
Liquidity risk is managed primarily through the use of Monitoring of daily liquidity requirement and cash flow forecasting Monitoring systems & risk limits Scenario analysis Stress testing
Credit Risk
Use of credit exposure limits Limits based on rating & type of security Deals mostly in highly rated securities Credit exposure are compared against limits on daily basis Regular review of corporate performance and emphasis on management discussion to have a check on potential credit risk
Risk Factors
Mutual Funds and securities investments are subject to market risks and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the Scheme will be achieved. *As with any securities investment, the NAV of the Units issued under the Scheme can go up or down depending on the factors and forces affecting the capital markets. * Past performance of the Sponsor / Fund / AMC or that of existing Schemes of the Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Scheme. *Kotak Bond and Kotak Short Term Bond, are only the names of the Schemes and does not in any manner indicate either the quality of the Scheme, future prospects or returns. * The NAV of the Scheme may be affected, inter alia, by changes in the market, performance of individual stocks, trading volumes, settlement periods and transfer procedures. * Appreciation of the value of the Units issued under the Scheme can be restricted in the event of a high asset allocation to cash, when stock appreciates. * Tax laws may change, affecting the return on investment in Units. *In the event of receipt of a very large number of redemption requests or very large value redemption requests or of a restructuring of the Schemes portfolio, there may be delays in the redemption of Units. Please refer to the paragraph on "Right to limit Redemption" in the Offer Document. *Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is not liable or responsible for any loss or shortfall resulting from the operations of the Scheme Statutory: Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund is a Trust (Indian Trusts Act, 1882). Investment Manager: Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd. Sponsor: Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (liability Rs. NIL). Trustee: Kotak Mahindra Trustee Company Ltd. Before investing, please read the Offer Document. Before investing, please read the Offer Document.