Research on Floods in India

41

Research on Floods in India

VISHWAS S. KALE*

Department of Geography, University of Pune, Pune - 411 007 INTRODUCTION Flooding is the only major natural hazard in India that occurs with an unfailing regularity. Some of the most unusual and unprecedented floods have been recorded on different rivers of the subcontinent in the most recent decades (Rakhecha, 2002; Herschy, 2002; Kale, 2003a; Dhar and Nandargi, 2004). The 1986 flood on the Godavari River, with a peak discharge of about 99,300 m3/s (Nageswara Rao, 2001), is the largest flood on record in the entire Indian subcontinent till date (Kale, 2007). The recent literature on monsoon floods is dominated by (1) studies on the spatiotemporal aspects of floods (2) research focused on the impact of monsoon floods on the fluvial systems and (3) remote sensing and GIS-based research that has gained considerable momentum in the last few years. A few studies on the flood processes and the impact of climate change have also been undertaken. FLOOD HAZARD MAPPING Over the review period, work has continued on mapping of the flood-prone areas in India. Several agencies, such as the Central Water Commission CWC (Flood Atlas of India), the Building Materials and Technology Promotion Council BMTPC (Vulnerability Atlas of India), and the National Atlas and Thematic Mapping Organization NATMO (Natural Hazard Map of India), have been involved in the flood-hazard mapping. These and other studies indicate that the areas that are frequently vulnerable to flooding in the country are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Sub-Himalayan region and the Ganga plains Brahmaputra Valley Punjab Plains Mahanadi-Godavari-Krishna-Kaveri Delta Plains Lower Narmada-Tapi-Mahi Valleys significant increasing trends for Narmada, Godavari and Satluj rivers (Kale, 2004). Additional analysis for some northwest Himalayan rivers by Bhutiyani and Kale (2002) shows significant decreasing trend for Beas river and increasing trends of annual peak discharge for Satluj and Chenab rivers. (b) Analysis of the available data does not reveal any statistically significant monotonic increase or decrease in the area affected by floods. However, the analysis shows a statistically significant increase in the population affected by floods during the same period (Kale, 2003b). This suggests that excess development and rapid population growth in the flood-prone areas has primarily resulted in increased vulnerability of the population and their infrastructure to the flood hazard, which has always existed (Kale, 1998). (c) Since most large floods are generated by cyclonic depressions, trends and fluctuations of the cyclonic systems over the adjoining seas are likely to affect the frequency and pattern of monsoon floods. Analysis of monthly cyclone frequencies over north Indian Ocean for the period 1877-1998 by Rao et al. (2001) shows that the storms have increasing trends during 1880-1930 and 1950-70 and decreasing trends during 1930-1950 and 1950-1998. Another study, dealing with the heavy rainfall events during the period 1901 to 1990, indicates a decreasing trend in all the seasons over most parts of the country (Sinha and Srivastava, 2000). All these results do not provide any support to the contention that the frequency of extreme floods has increased in recent decades. (d) Examination of the flood series extending back nearly 75 to >110 years for some large Indian rivers indicates that the long-term fluctuations in annual peak discharge/stage are not random, and show some link with the long-period variations in the monsoon rainfall (Kale, 2003a). The patterns show that the interannual variability in peak discharges/stages was lower during the first four decades of the 20th Century, followed and preceded by several decades of high interannual variability. This trend is broadly consistent with the long-term variability in the all-India monsoon rainfall and SST index of ENSO (Kale, 2004). (e) The flood variability and intensity, in terms of the flash flood magnitude index (FFMI) and the ratio between peak flood discharge and mean flood discharge (Qmax/Qm), have been evaluated for some Indian rivers. Analysis of the available data for many large Indian rivers by Kale (2003a) reveals that rivers either in the high-relief setting (such as Teesta, upper Yamuna and upper Ganga) and/or in the major rainstorm zones (e.g. Tapi, Godavari, Narmada, Damodar) display higher Qmax/Qm ratio and FFMI values. On the other

HYDRO-GEOMORPHIC ASPECTS OF MONSOON FLOODS The need for information on the physical, hydrological, geomorphological and meteorological aspects of monsoon floods has been felt for a long time. Although enormous amount of information is available, it is widely scattered among various technical journals or reports and government publications. In the last few years, some attempts have been made to compile and analyse this information (Kale, 1998; 2003a, 2004). The following major conclusions have emerged from the review and analysis of the available data (Kale, 2003a, 2004): (a) Time-series analyses of the annual peak-discharge data indicate significant decreasing trends for the upper Ganga, Krishna and Brahmaputra rivers, and
* E-mail: vskale@unipune.ernet.in

42 hand, lower Brahmaputra, lower Ganga and Krishna Rivers draining the plains are characterized by lower interannual variability in flood discharges. The results also show that the FFMI values for most large Indian rivers are lower than the world average, implying that large flows are relatively frequent in Indian rivers (Kale, 2003a). The discharge variability of the river systems in the Ganga plains was assessed in terms of the ratio between the maximum and minimum daily discharges (Qmax/Qmin) and the ratio between mean annual flood and mean discharges (Qmaf/Qmean) by Sinha (2005). His analysis indicates that although the discharge is quite variable in both the large and small rivers, the mountain-fed large rivers, such as the Ganga and the Gandak, particularly show high variability. (f) Though all the floods are primarily meteorological in origin, geomorphic, geologic and anthropogenic factors also intensify floods. Geomorphic processes such as avulsion, channel migration, rise in the channel bed due to aggradation, etc. affect the water levels during large floods. Such processes are common in the IndusGanga-Brahmaputra plains (Kale, 2003a). In the Ganga plains, the dynamic behaviour of river channels and frequent avulsions often divert the flow into a newly formed channel with low bankfull capacity causing extensive flooding (Sinha, 2005).

Glimpses of Geoscience Research in India The average unit stream power values for bankfull discharges for some large Indian rivers were found to be between 322 Wm-2 on the Godavari River and less than 10 Wm-2 on the Brahmaputra River (Kale, 2003a). In case of the Godavari River this is mainly due to low width-depth ratio and relatively higher channel gradient. Sinha (2005), using bankfull discharge as well as the average annual discharge for different rivers in the Ganga plains inferred that the stream power of the rivers of the western Ganga plain rivers is significantly higher (4043 Wm-2) than that of the eastern Ganga plains rivers (620 Wm-2). Kale and Hire (2007) evaluated the temporal variations in specific stream power and the total energy available for geomorphic work during the monsoon season for the Tapi river in central India. Their analysis shows that the total amount of energy generated during the monsoon season is in the range of 37 megajoules (deficit monsoon years) to 256 megajoules (excess monsoon and/or flood years), and large floods have one-third share in the total annual monsoon energy expenditure. REMOTE SENSING AND GIS IN FLOOD MANAGEMENT There is now greater emphasis on non-structural measures of flood management and control, rather than on structural measures. These measures include flood forecasting, flood-inundation mapping and flood plain zoning. Remote sensing has emerged as an indispensable tool in the study of floods, particularly with its capacity to provide near real-time data, enabling preparation of maps of inundated areas and assessment of damages. Several studies connected with floods (areal extent, zonation, damages) have been undertaken on the basis of remote sensing techniques (Jain and Sinha, 2003; Sankhua, et al., 2005; Jain et al., 2005; Prasad, et al., 2006). Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is also now being used in several studies to delineate the flood-hazard areas by incorporating meteorological, geomorphological, topographical, land use and demographical data, with an aim to achieve a reduction in the loss of life, disruption and damages caused by floods (Sanyal and Lu, 2003; Bapalu and Sinha, 2005). The experience of past five decades in India has indicated that the structural measures have not been able to effectively control floods on some of the most flood-prone rivers in India (Kale, 2004). In fact, dams and other structures have seriously affected the flooding behaviour and sedimenttransport characteristics. Hema Malini and Rao (2004), using multi-date satellite images, have shown that sustained erosion at the Godavari delta for the past two- and -a-half decades is due to a significant decline in the sediment supply through the Godavari River because of dams. FLOODS AND CLIMATE CHANGE A question of fundamental importance to flood-hazard research in India is whether the future is likely to see the situation improved, unchanged or exacerbated. The t-test was used to determine the percentage change required in the mean of the future flood series before it can be considered to be significantly different from the historical gauge record

(g) Some of the most devastating floods n the Indian subcontinent have been produced from failure or breaching of natural or man-made dams (Kale, 2004). In the 20th Century there have been more than a dozen floods in India that were related to failure of man-made dams (Kale, 2003a; Cenderelli and Wohl, 2003). Two powerful floods recorded in India, the flood of 6 September 1970 on the Narmada River and the flood of 11 August 1979 on the Machhu River were found to be record-breaking events in the world (Rakhecha, 2002). The latter is a dam-failure flood. GEOMORPHIC EFFECTIVENESS OF FLOODS There are many instances of floods that have modified river channels and flood plains in significant ways (Kale, 2003a). On some rivers the effects of large floods tend to persist for longer periods. Several recent studies have described the geomorphic effects of monsoon floods in terms of bank failure and channel widening, avulsion and large-scale sediment transport (Kale, 2003b, Kotoky, et al., 2003; Mitra et al., 2005; Sinha, 2005; Sarma, 2005). Studies by Kotoky et al. (2003) indicate that a considerable portion of the Majuli Island, one of the largest river islands in the world, has been eroded by annual floods. The efficacy of extreme events of three extraordinary floods of the 20th Century in the Indian peninsula was evaluated by Kale (2007). The estimates indicate that the peak-unit stream-power values and the total energy expended during each flood were respectively in the range of 290-325 Wm-2 and 65-160 megajoules. The average and peak-flood powers were found to be higher or comparable to those estimated for extreme palaeo- or modern- floods on low-gradient, alluvial rivers.

Research on Floods in India (Kale, 2003b). The analysis revealed that in the Indian context, about 33% change in the area affected by floods, 25-30% change in peak discharge and about 6% change in the allIndia monsoon rainfall is required before the mean of the next decade can be considered as statistically significant (Kale, 2003b). Gosain et al., (2006) attempted to quantify the impact of the climate change on the water resources of Indian river systems. The study has projected increased severity of droughts and intensity of floods in various river basins of India. The authors have presented the results of two river basins predicted to be worst affected, namely the Krishna and the Mahanadi river basins. CONCLUSIONS It is evident from the brief review of the available literature that research on different aspects of monsoon floods in India continues to be wide-ranging. Traditional descriptive and classificatory studies have been replaced by more systematic and quantities studies of the floods and their impacts. This approach, together with the development in the fields of palaeoflood hydrology, remote sensing, GIS and computer modelling may provide better information for flood hazard management in India. REFERENCES
Bapalu, G. V. and Sinha, R., 2005, GIS in Flood Hazard Mapping: a case study of Kosi River Basin, India, GIS Development, available online (web site address may be sought from Kale). Bhutiyani, M.R. and Kale, V.S., 2002, Climatic changes in the last century: Are the Himalaya warming?: Journal of the Institution of Military Engineering, v. 13, p. 37-46. Cenderelli, D.A. and Wohl, E.E., 2003, Flow hydraulics and geomorphic effects of glacial-lake outburst floods in the Mount Everest region, Nepal: Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, v. 28, p. 385-407. Dhar, O.N. and Nandargi, S., 2004, Floods in north Indian river Systems. Their frequency and pattern, in Valdiya, K.S. ed., Coping with Natural Hazards: Indian Context: Orient Longman, Hyderabad, p. 104-123. Gosain, A.K., Rao, S. and Basuray, D. 2006., Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of Indian river basins: Current Science, v. 90, p. 346-353. Herschy, R.W., 2002, The worlds maximum observed floods: Flow Measurement and instrumentation, v. 13, p. 231-235. Hema Malini, B. and Nageswara Rao, K., 2004, Coastal erosion and habitat loss along the Godavari delta front a fallout of dam construction (?): Current Science, v. 87, p. 12321236. Jain, S.K., Singh, R.D., Jain, M.K. and Lohani, A.K., 2005, Delineation of flood-prone areas using remote sensing techniques: Water Resources Management, v. 19, p. 333347.

43
Jain, V. and Sinha, R., 2003, Geomorphological manifestations of the flood hazard: A remote sensing based approach: Geocarto International, v. 18, p. 5160. Kale, V.S., 1998, Monsoon floods in India: A hydro-geomorphic perspective: Geological Society of India, Memoir 41, p. 229-256. Kale, V.S., 2003a, Geomorphic effects of monsoon floods on Indian rivers: Natural Hazards, v. 28, p. 65-84. Kale, V.S., 2003b, The spatio-temporal aspects of monsoon floods in India: Implications for flood hazard management, in Gupta, H. K., ed., Disaster Management: Universities Press, Hyderabad, p. 22-47. Kale, V.S., 2004, Floods in India: Their frequency and pattern, in Valdiya, K.S. ed., Coping with Natural Hazards: Indian Context: Orient Longman, Hyderabad, p. 91-103. Kale, V.S., 2007, Geomorphic effectiveness of extraordinary floods on three large rivers of the Indian Peninsula: Geomorphology, v. 85, p. 306-316. Kale, V.S. and Hire, P.S., 2007, Temporal variations in the specific stream power and total energy expenditure of a monsoonal river: The Tapi River, India: Geomorphology, v. 92, p. 134-146. Kotoky, P., Bezbaruah, D., Baruah, J.N. and Sarma, J.N., 2003, Erosion activity on Majulithe largest river island of the world: Current Science, v. 84, p. 929-932. Mitra, D., Tangri, A.K. and Singh, I.B., 2005, Channel avulsions of the Sarda river system, Ganga Plain: International Journal of Remote Sensing, v. 26, p. 929-936. Nageswara Rao, G., 2001, Occurrence of heavy rainfall around the confluence line in monsoon disturbances and its importance in causing floods: Proceedings of Indian Academy of Sciences Earth and Planetary Science, v. 110, p. 87-94. Prasad, A.K., Vinay Kumar, K., Singh, S. and Singh, R.P., 2006., Potentiality of multi-sensor satellite data in mapping flood hazard: Photonirvachak, v. 34, p. 219-231. Rakhecha, P.R., 2002, Highest floods in India: IAHS-AISH Publication, v. 271, p. 167-172. Rao, D.V.B., Naidu, C.V. and Rao, B.R., 2001, Trends and fluctuations of the cyclonic systems over north Indian ocean: Mausam, v. 52, p. 37-46. Sankhua, R.N., Sharma, N, Garg, P.K. and Pandey, A.D., 2005, Use of remote sensing and ANN in assessment of erosion activities in Majuli, the worlds largest river island: International Journal of Remote Sensing, v. 26, p. 4445 4454. Sanyal, J. and Lu, X. X., 2003, Application of GIS in flood hazard mapping: A case study of Gangetic West Bengal, India: GIS Development, available online. Sarma, J.N., 2005, Fluvial process and morphology of the Brahmaputra River in Assam, India: Geomorphology, v. 70, p. 226-256. Sinha, R., 2005, Why do Gangetic Rivers aggrade or degrade?: Current Science, v. 89, p. 836-840. Sinha, R. and Srivastava, S., 2000, Is there any change in extreme events like heavy rainfall?: Current Science, v. 79, p. 155-158.