Volume 21 Issue 2

March 2011

OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF CROP QUEST AGRONOMIC SERVICES, INC.

Outlook For 2011 Crop Is Good

Corn and soybean prices should remain high, with some weather-related fluctuations, throughout the 2011 growing season. Wheat, especially high protein winter red wheat, should be in great demand throughout the spring harvest and fall planting seasons, says Rich Pottorff, chief economist with Doane Agriculture Advisory Service. The competition is on in the Plain States for acreage. Soybean and corn stocks are at or near record lows and demand is pushing prices ever upward. Winter flooding and a devastating tsunami have virtually eliminated Australias hard winter wheat crop and production is down in Argentina and parts of the former Soviet Union. In the U.S. Pottorff says corn acreage is projected to be up by 3 million acres. Soybeans are projected to add an additional million acres, pushing up total acreage of the combined grain crops significantly nationwide. Wheat acres are already high and could go significantly higher for fall 2011 plantings, depending on how the battle for corn and soybean acres ends up and whether the strong demand for wheat continues. All in all, the outlook is outstanding for grain farmers as we head toward spring planting time. From our sources in the seed business, we dont see any significant shortages in seed supply for corn and soybeans in 2011. There will be some seed for new drought tolerant corn and this seed will be in short supply, Pottorff says. For growers with no irrigation or limited irrigation water, buying drought tolerant seed makes sense, but there are no indications that these or other seed prices will go up significantly between now (early February) and planting time in the Plains. Growers will have some time to figure out exactly how many acres of which crop to plant and make seed purchases once the planning process is complete, he adds. Prices for seed are going to be higher in 2011 than they were in 2010. We dont see any indication that seed prices are going to go down as we move closer to planting time. And, while some varieties in great demand may go up in price, there is no strong indication that seed prices overall will go much higher between now and planting time, he predicts. In parts of the lower Midwest cotton acreage may be up significantly and whether seed supply can match demand across the entire Cotton Belt is less certain. When major seed companies sat down a year ago, they didnt expect close to 13 million acres of cotton to be planted. With the high price of commodities, seed prices are not likely to be a limiting factor in determining which crops to plant in 2011. Over the past several months, fertilizer costs have gone up significantly. In some areas fertilizer for fall application just wasnt available. It wasnt a matter of price, it just simply wasnt available, Pottorff says. For spring of 2011 there should be a good supply for farmers. Though he doesnt forecast fertilizer prices, Pottorff says, from all the information he has seen, prices arent likely to go down, at least throughout the spring planting season. We will likely plant more corn acres this year than we planted last year and application rates will be up to take advantage of good prices. So, the demand for fertilizer will be strong going into the planting season. Once we get well along in planting, there may be some lessening in demand. I dont see any real advantage of waiting to buy fertilizer, but I dont see a real price advantage for buying it now. If you can forward price some and not have to store it, then it makes sense to buy now. Or, if you have storage, you might save a little money by buying it now, Pottorff says. There is a lot of volatility in the fertilizer market, and its hard to predict prices. Few people, including me, didnt see a 50% price increase coming for some fertilizers between last summer and now, he states.
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FERTILIZER

SEED

Rich Pottorff

C C o o p QQ u e s t P P e s s p e c i v v e s 1 1 rr p uest errpectti es

Dont Make Mistakes With High Value Wheat

Kansas State University Professor and Small Grains Specialist Jim Shroyer has seen his share of wheat crops. This year, with prices so high, farmers need to be more cautious than ever when deciding whether to keep or abandon their wheat crop, he says. Dont get in too big of a hurry to destroy the wheat crop this year. If we get moisture, it can fool you. And, even if it does make a poor crop, its still going to be worth $7-$8 per bushel, Stroyer stresses. Simple math will tell a grower that $8 a bushel, even at ultra low yields of 15-20 bushels per acre, may be better than the next crop he plants, Shroyer says. Back when wheat was selling for $4 a bushel, keeping a low yield potential crop wasnt such a hard decision to make, he explains. Growers need to remember that any kind moisture, including snow melt, will give the wheat root system a big boost. So, what looks like very little tillering may turn out to be better than 15-20 bushel per acre wheat, Shroyer says. Wheat has to be really poor not to get 15-20 bushels out of it. Still there is some wheat that just didnt come up and there is no yield potential, but those acres are going to be the exception in most years, he notes. If growers make the decision not to apply nitrogen and generally wait to see whether they have enough tillers to make a crop, they have essentially made the decision of not keeping the crop. If they dont take care of the crop in the winter, they have made the decision too early, Shroyer contends. A lot of our wheat is just now coming up or has been sitting there for a while. If the grower makes the decision to abandon that wheat in February and March, he might be sorry come April, if we get some moisture and warm enough days to melt the snow cover. I know there is wheat out there that is dead thats a different issue and growers should go ahead and make whatever decision they need to make to take care of situations like that. However, too often the wheat is not dead and when we get rains and warmer weather, it pops out of the ground, Shroyer says. If growers decide to abandon the crop and burn it down, Shroyer strongly urges they avoid using long residual herbicides. Some of the better burn down materials also have longer residual activity and can dictate what crops can be planted behind the abandoned wheat, he adds. In thin wheat, weeds will likely be a problem because of a lack of competition from the target crop. Controlling weeds in thin wheat can be a problem. Choosing the right herbicide can make the difference between a poor wheat crop and a good crop. For example, I would definitely stay away from 2,4-D, because it will shut down any tillering. It may do a good job to keep weeds out of thin wheat, however, it will definitely shut down the plant and insure a poor stand, Shroyer says. Top-dressing on a thin stand of wheat will be another issue wheat growers will face this year, Shroyer adds. I can understand the growers perspective of not throwing good money after bad. However, if they follow that line of thinking, they will have made the decision to lose $7-$8 a bushel for the wheat, plus the cost they already have in the crop, he explains. A better approach may be to put on 50% and up to 80% of their normal side-dress. If growers decide to take the wheat out, they still get some benefit from the fertilizer. If the wheat is truly bad, its not going to use much of it, so most of fertilizer will be in the soil or in the crop residue, if they destroy the wheat. Shroyer says jokingly, just because you kill a poor crop doesnt mean its going to rain. Without rain, the next crop isnt going to do too well either. So, in many cases it may be better to stick with what youve got. Ive had growers tell me, my wheat is dead. Most of the time its not dead, and its hard for me to believe that much of the wheat in Kansas this year is really dead. Based on that, its hard for me to believe its going to be a good decision in February and March to destroy a wheat crop, the Kansas State scientist concludes.

Outlook For 2011

... Continued from Page 1

We could easily be in a situation in which we plant 3 million more acres of corn and a million more acres of soybeans, get good yields in both crops, and lose ground on rebuilding the stock-to-use ratio margins, he adds. Unless we have corn and soybean yields significantly above the 10-year average trend line, it seems to me the high prices will likely stay in place even through the 2012 cropping season, Pottorff projects. There is a better than even chance that prices in the $6 a bushel range for corn and $12-$13 range for a bushel of soybeans will be around for a couple of years. Its hard to rebuild stocks, especially if those stocks stay low and demand and prices remain high, he contends. The current La Nia weather pattern appears to be in place until well into the summer and that isnt conducive to high crop yields. But even normal weather will make it difficult to get ahead of the curve on stock-to-use ratios, he concludes. For grain farmers, the one factor that could impact whether they save a high percentage of their crop to take advantage of escalating prices or sell it to take advantage of current high prices, the trump card may be the weather. However, there is little risk in the price going down, Pottorff says. High, but relatively stable seed and fertilizer costs, combined with high prices for commodities bode well for farmers. The 2011 crop will likely be the most valuable crop on record, and having a trained, licensed crop consultant to help maximize the profits makes more sense than ever before.
www.cropquest.com

The supply of corn stocks is very low and we are at a record low for soybeans. It seems almost impossible for prices to go down between now and planting time, Pottorff states. There will be a battle for acreage, really on a global basis. In the Plain States and Midwest we need more corn and soybean acreage and we already have more wheat acreage. In the southern end of the Midwest there is a need for more cotton acreage. I dont know how much the market has factored in the drought in Argentina. There is some contention that Argentine corn production may be 200 million bushels short of USDAs current estimates. They may also be short 200 million bushels of soybeans. So, the market may be a little stronger than we think by U.S. planting season. The monthly data for use of corn for ethanol is likely low. So, the stock-to-use ratio for corn could go even lower before we ever get to the 2011 corn harvest. All that means to me is that corn prices are going to be strong throughout the summer, Pottorf says. If we get 3 million extra acres of corn, versus last year, and the yield is around 162 bushels per acre, we will barely produce what we need in the U.S. With any type of crop failure, the stock-to-use ratio will be even lower and prices will reflect that heightened demand, the Minnesota-based economist says.
2 Crop Quest Perspectives

CROP CHOICES

Seed has never been so valuable whether going into the soil or the crop coming out of it. Because of the high input costs and the high value of their crops, it is imperative that farmers take special measures to insure their planting equipment is in top form. If farmers spend a little extra time with their planters, it will pay dividends as they move along through the growing season, says Crop Quest Agronomist Darin Brummer. Getting an early uniform stand is critical to high yields. Seed costs are going to be high and getting seed in the ground just like you want them can make a grower a lot of money with the high crop prices we are seeing now, he adds. The first thing to look for on the planter is to be sure the coulters are sharp enough to cut through the soil residue. Make sure the coulters and disks are in line accurately, otherwise seed placement may be off. Worn disk openers and worn rubber seals should be replaced to avoid altering seed populations. If the planter is out of line a fraction of an inch, it could cost the grower a lot of money due to poor stands, Brummer says. Disc DARIN BRUMMER openers should be adjusted together by removing spacers behind the hubs to obtain 1-3 inches of disc contact. Most new planter disc openers are 15 inches in diameter with a 0.5-inch bevel. When they wear to less than 14 inches in diameter, they should be replaced. Make sure the planter is level. Changing tires on the tractor or pulling the planter with a different tractor from the prior year can change the levelness of the planter. Even simple things like changing the air pressure in tires can affect whether the planter is level, Brummer stresses. And, make sure gauge-wheel pivots are not worn to the point they flex away from disc openers. As gauge-wheel pivots wear, they pull away from the disc openers, which need to make a consistent V. Worn pivots will adversely alter your seed trenches. Seed tubes need to be clean and ensure tube feet are working properly. The ends of the planter tube last

PLANTER EFFICIENCY KEY WITH HIGH VALUE CROPS

a long time and too often growers dont think about checking them. But, if they are worn, they can alter planting efficiency, Brummer notes. Once planting time comes, Brummer says the first thing the grower needs to do is be sure the tool bar is parallel to soil surface when planting. If not, seedbed and seed-to-soil contact will be affected and will generally reduce the efficiency of the whole planting operation.

SPECIAL CARE FOR NO-TILL Many growers have gone to strip till or no-till systems, which may require a little extra planter care before spring planting time. In no-till fields growers need to be sure the planter has enough down pressure, especially in fields with heavy crop residue. In conventional planting thats not a big problem, but it can be in no-till fields, Brummer stresses. Gauge wheels and press wheels need to be set to get seed depths at 1.5-2.0 inches deep. If you plant it too shallow, root systems will not develop properly and will cause production problems throughout the year. If you plant too deep, you can obviously have emergence and stand problems, he adds. Having the planter set up properly is essential to getting correct plant spacing to take maximum advantage of sunlight, to improve yield and to help shade out weed and grass. Even a one-inch deviation, in corn for example, can cut yield by three bushels per acre, Brummer says. CALIBRATION Maintenance can be a critical factor in getting seed in the right place at the right time, but all the maintenance in the world wont overcome poor calibration of the planter. Some well-proven things to remember about calibration are as follows: or pneumatic planters (air or vacuum), calculate the seed F weight for each seed by dividing the number of seeds per bag by the weight of the bag. For example, an 80,000 seed bag divided by 50 lbs. equals 1,600 seeds per lb.

rom the operations manual, identify the correct pressure F (air or vacuum) for the calculated seed weight. Identify the correct seed disc (or drum) for the calculated seed weight. From the planters operations manual, identify the correct transmission setting for your desired seeding rate.

During winter, planning meetings with Crop Quest agronomists is a good time to take a few minutes to develop a checklist of things to do to insure your planter is fine-tuned, well calibrated and ready to go in the spring.

alibrate actual seed drop with the planter transmission C settings and the planter monitor readouts. Do the calibration at normal planting speeds and seeding rates under as close to field conditions as possible.

John Hecht Receives National Agriculture Consulting Award

John Hecht, Crop Quest Special Projects Manager, was awarded the 2010 Consultant of the Year award in January 2011 at the National Association of Independent Crop Consultants (NAICC) meeting in San Antonio, TX. Hecht currently consults with the Navajo Agriculture Projects Inc. (NAPI) in New Mexico, the Ute Mountain Farm

in Colorado, and Green River Farms in Utah in addition to managing projects in the Roswell, NM, and San Antonio, TX, areas. He has been instrumental in incorporating Veris and GreenSeeker Technology within Crop Quests Precision Ag Services. Crop Quest appreciates Hechts 31 years of agronomic service and congratulates him on this honor.
Crop Quest Perspectives 3

Winter is Best Time For Sprayer Tune-Up

Taking care of $6 a bushel corn and $14 a bushel soybeans will be essential to recoup the high cost of seed, fertilizer and other crop inputs. Whether it is spraying herbicides, insecticides or fungicides, timing is always a critical issue and having the sprayer ready to go is good insurance for making planting and the early growth period of grain go smoothly. Crop Quest Precision Ag Specialist Nathan Woydziak says most growers already know what to do, but sometimes a written reminder can help jog their memory. From a technical point of view there are several things that growers need to remember to do to get their sprayers ready for action: Typical adjusting and cleaning of tips, filters, lines and tank Checking all fluids and levels Consider replacing all tips at the beginning of the season. Generally the cost is minimal and will assure getting off to a good start Adjusting for flow rate (some monitors may have calibration wizards to help with this task) If the sprayer is coming out of winter make sure to clean the tank. You dont want your winterization liquids to contaminate your first spray load. season starts. You can buy one of those toothbrushlike brushes for a few dollars and they do a good Nathan Woydziak job. Many farmers take out a pocket knife and try to clean out a plugged nozzle, but just a slight alteration in nozzle pressure from damage caused by the knife can make a big difference on how you get the chemical properly applied on a crop, Hecht says. HIGH TECH REMINDER While checking off the potential trouble spots on a sprayer used to be simple, now that many growers are going with GPS guided equipment and high tech monitors, sometimes checking the new systems isnt so simple. Woydziak says If you havent already done so, make a backup copy of the data on your monitor. This can be as simple as copying the information to a desktop or laptop. He adds that it is a good idea to check the amount of free space remaining on your monitor. At crunch time during planting season, it will be critical to have enough space on your monitor to function properly. During down time this winter, Woydziak says its a good time to look at the latest firmware updates and download and install the new data that will help you when planting season begins. There are a few basic things growers should check on their precision equipment, Woydziak says, these include: Update settings for overlap Test GPS accuracy and settings Test the auto steering abilities to make certain everything is communicating properly Ensure auto boom/swath control features are operational and set appropriately

Though visual checking will help growers spot many problems with spray rigs, wiring problems are less likely to be seen and most likely to cause problems when spring planting time comes. Woydziak says, Its a good idea to clean and check the wiring a little bit of prevention can help avoid messing with a loose connection when its time to be in the field. When its time to put expensive seed in the ground, timing is much more critical at this point." Crop Quest Agronomist John Hecht says prior to planting season is a good time to check ALL the nozzles on your sprayer. It takes time, but will pay off when you get going full speed later this spring. If you find any nozzle 5% above or below the average output of the sprayer, those nozzles should be replaced, he adds. A simple thing like a nozzle cleaning brush can save growers a lot of frustration when the growing John Hecht

With prices high for virtually all grain crops going into the 2011 cropping season, the time for decision-making is going to be short. The cost of making the wrong decision is going to be high. With such a premium on timeliness for producing high-quality and high-yielding crops, the best time to make decisions about sprayers is now. Visit with your Crop Quest agronomist if you need advice on sprayer cleaning and calibration.

Crop Quest is an employee-owned company dedicated to providing the highest quality agricultural services for each customer. The quest of our network of professionals is to practice integrity and innovation to ensure our services are economically and environmentally sound.

Mission Statement

Crop Quest Agronomic Services, Inc. Main Office: Phone 620.225.2233 Fax 620.225.3199 Internet: www.cropquest.com cqoffice@cropquest.com

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Crop Quest Board of Directors

President: Director: Director: Director: Director: Director: Ron OHanlon Jim Gleason Dwight Koops Cort Minor Chris McInteer Rob Benyshek